A cidade que mais cresce no mundo. São Paulo não pode parar... São Paulo deve parar! Mais do que slogans que marcam a história da maior metrópole brasileira, essas frases revelam uma capital marcada por mudanças e manifestações sociais típicas de grandes centros urbanos. O presente trabalho visa compreender essas mudanças por intermédio de uma das manifestações que melhor distingue o território paulistano: os homicídios dolosos, um dos principais problemas sociais desta metrópole. Para tanto, conceitos e concepções presentes na literatura que aborda o movimento da criminalidade urbana paulista são debatidos, utilizados como fundamento teórico e hipóteses a serem testadas. Além disso, técnicas estatísticas e geoestatísticas são empregadas como ferramentas analíticas do material empírico, obtido de diversas fontes. O trabalho é composto por estudos descritivo-exploratórios e análises em escala intraurbana. Congregando um amplo número de pesquisas cientificas, esses estudos buscam esclarecer por que, em um determinado período e local, as taxas de homicídios dolosos apresentam estabilidade, crescimento ou retração. Já as análises avaliam esse fenômeno do ponto de vista dos diversos padrões de urbanização e de homicídios que configuram a cidade de São Paulo. De modo geral, as investigações são consideradas em perspectiva longitudinal, o que possibilita uma observação mais adequada das nuances e variações dos homicídios, assim como melhor contextualização das matrizes teóricas que sustentam ou contestam os resultados obtidos. Entretanto, mais do que considerar o movimento dos homicídios dolosos por intermédio de suas taxas e das condicionantes que explicam sua variabilidade no tempo e no espaço, avalia-se o efeito destas entre si, sob um ponto de vista sócio-histórico e, em sentido amplo, dialético e plural. Considerando o desenvolvimento da cidade, buscou-se apresentar as transformações ocorridas na urbe e como elas se associam às taxas de homicídios. Essas transformações são vistas tanto em nível macrossociológico como microssocial. No primeiro, focaliza-se o movimento dos homicídios dolosos tendo em vista fatores históricos, econômicos, políticos e sociais que aparecem direta ou indiretamente associados com esse movimento. No segundo nível, em cada uma das milhares de partes em que a cidade é dividida são verificadas características econômicas, infraestruturais, demográficas e sociais, entre outras, que se mostraram significativas para explicar a variabilidade dos homicídios. Ambos os níveis são articulados durante todo o trabalho, sendo as conclusões alcançadas oriundas desta articulação condutoras da reflexão acerca das principais conclusões deste estudo. Essas conclusões contrariam a noção de que o movimento dos homicídios pode ser explicado por teorias universais e atemporais, apontando para a importância de uma avaliação científica da área e do período de estudo, das teorias sobre crimes urbanos e das mudanças sociais capazes de alterar esse movimento. / The world´s fastest growing city. Sao Paulo cant stop Sao Paulo must stop! More than slogans that marked the history of the biggest Brazilian metropolis; these sentences reveal a city characterized by change and social manifestations distinctive of large urban centers. The present work aims to comprehend these changes through one of the manifestations that best distinguishes the city area; homicides, one of the metropolis main social problems. For this purpose, the concepts and conceptions present in the literature that approaches the citys urban criminality movement are addressed, and used as theory basis and hypothesis to be tried. Also, the statistical and geostatistical techniques are employed as analytical tools to study the empirical data obtained through several sources. This work is composed of descriptive exploratory studies and assessments on intraurban scales. The studies gathered a wide number of scientific researches that seek to clarify why, in a certain period and location, the homicide rates present stability, growth or retraction. On the other hand the analysis approaches this phenomenon through the point of view of several urbanization and homicidal patterns that characterize Sao Paulo city. Overall, the research is taken into consideration on a longitudinal perspective, what enables a more suitable observation of homicide shades and variations, as a better contextualization of the theoretical matrices that support or challenge the obtained results. However, more than considering the movement of homicide by its rates and conditionings, that explain their variations in time and space, it was also assessed the effects among each other, under a sociohistorical point of view and, in a wider perspective, dialectical and plural as well. Taken into account the citys development, it was soughed to present the transformations that occur in the city and how they are related to the homicide rates. Those transformations can be seen in a macrosociological and microsocial levels. At the first, it was focused on the movement of homicide taken into historic, economic, politic and social account factors that show directly or indirectly associated with this movement. At the second level, in each of the thousand parts that composed the city it is verified economic, infrastructural, demographical and social characteristics, among others, that were found to be significant to explain the variability of homicide. Both levels are articulated throughout this work, and these conclusions reached arising of this articulation lead to reflection on the main conclusions of this work. These conclusions contradict the notion that the homicide movement can be explained by universal and timeless theories that show the importance of scientific assessments over place and time the study took place, of urban crime theories and the social changes capable of altering that movement.

O presente trabalho foi desenvolvido com o objetivo de analisar, por meio da técnica de fotointerpretação, o uso e ocupação do solo na microbacia hidrográfica do córrego do Itaperu/Itapocu, no município de Piracicaba (SP), do período de 1940 até 2016. Foram utilizadas fotografias aéreas dos anos de 1940, 1978, 2000 e 2005 e imagens dos satélites Rapid Eye e Cbers 4 dos anos de 2011 e 2016. Para tanto, o estudo foi dividido em três etapas que consistiram em primeiro analisar o uso e ocupação do solo na microbacia hidrográfica em todo sua extensão; na sequência foi analisada a evolução de áreas urbanas na microbacia e por último foram verificadas as Áreas de Preservação Permanente. Como resultado da primeira etapa foi identificada uma grande mudança da ocupação dos usos do solo ao longo das décadas estudadas. Na segunda etapa, foi constatado o avanço urbano para a área da microbacia hidrográfica que era totalmente rural e ao longo dos anos passou a ser incorporada no perímetro urbano. Na última etapa ao analisar as Áreas de Preservação Permanente, com o crescimento urbano ocorrido no local, houve a extinção de cinco nascentes e alguns cursos d\'água tiveram seu comprimento reduzido. / The present work was developed with the purpose to analyze, by the photointerpretation technique, the use and occupation of the soil in the watershed of the Itaperu/Itapocu stream in the municipality of Piracicaba (SP), between 1940 and 2016. Aerial photographs from the years 1940, 1978, 2000 and 2005 were used, as well as satellite images of Rapid Eye and Cbers 4 from 2011 and 2016. The study was divided into three steps. First, the use and occupation of the soil in the watershed drainage basin in all its extension were analyzed. Next, the evolution of urban areas in the watershed were investigated. Finally, the Permanent Preservation Areas were studied. In the first stage, it was identified a major shift of the occupation of soil uses over the decades studied. In the second, it was found the urban advance into the hydrographic watershed area, which used to be entirely rural and, over the years, became incorporated into the urban area. In the last step, there was the extinction of five springs and some watercourses had their lengths reduced due to urban growth in the area.

A tuberculose é uma das dez principais causas de morte dentre as doenças infecciosas no mundo, o que evidencia a doença como um problema de saúde pública. A redução da mortalidade por tuberculose em 95% até 2035, proposta pela Estratégia End TB, tem sido desafiadora para o Brasil devido sua extensão territorial, variações culturais e desigualdades na distribuição dos recursos de proteção social e de saúde. Assim, buscou-se analisar a relação espacial e espaço-temporal dos determinantes sociais e o risco de mortes por tuberculose em Cuiabá. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico, realizado na cidade de Cuiabá, capital do estado de Mato Grosso. As unidades de análise do estudo foram as Unidades de Desenvolvimento Humano (UDHs) e a população foi constituída por casos de óbitos que apresentaram como causa básica a TB registrados no Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM) entre 2006 a 2016, residentes na zona urbana do município. Para identificação das áreas de risco das mortes por tuberculose, utilizou-se a estatística de varredura. Em seguida, recorreu-se à técnica da Análise de Componentes Principais que permitiu a elaboração das dimensões dos determinantes sociais. A associação entre os determinantes sociais e as áreas de risco das mortes por tuberculose foi obtida, por meio da regressão logística binária. As modelagens Bayesianas foram empregadas, por meio da abordagem Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA), para verificar os riscos relativos temporais e espaciais e avaliar sua a relação com covariáveis representativas dos determinantes sociais. Nesse período foram registradas 225 mortes por tuberculose, identificou-se aglomerado de risco para a mortalidade por tuberculose, com RR = 2,09 (IC95% = 1,48-2,94; p = 0,04). No modelo logístico, os determinantes sociais relacionados ao déficit escolar e pobreza estiveram associados ao aglomerado de risco de mortes por tuberculose (OR=2,92; IC95% = 1,17-7,28), a renda apresentou uma associação negativa (OR=0,05; IC95% = 0,00 - 0,70). O valor da curva ROC do modelo foi de 92,1%. Em relação aos modelos Bayesianos observou-se redução do risco de morte por tuberculose entre 2006 (RR=1,03) e 2016 (RR=0,98) e ainda áreas de risco que persistem por mais de uma década. Dentre os determinantes sociais, a renda foi um importante fator associado ao risco de morte por tuberculose, sendo que o aumento de um desvio padrão na renda correspondeu à diminuição de 31% no risco de mortalidade por tuberculose. Os resultados do estudo apontam que existe associação entre os determinantes sociais e o risco de mortalidade por tuberculose no município investigado, sendo este um fenômeno que persiste no tempo. O investimento em políticas públicas de melhoria de distribuição de renda pode favorecer a mudança dessa realidade. Espera-se que os achados possam nortear gestores e trabalhadores no âmbito local e regional / Tuberculosis is one of the top 10 causes of death among infectious diseases in the world, which shows the disease as a public health problem. The reduction of tuberculosis mortality by 95% up to 2035, proposed by the End TB Strategy, has been challenging for Brazil due to its territorial extension, cultural variations and inequalities in the distribution of social protection and health resources. Thus, we sought to analyze the spatial and spatial-temporal relationship of social determinants and the risk of deaths from tuberculosis in Cuiabá.This is an ecological study conducted in the city of Cuiaba, capital of Mato Grosso. The units of analysis of the study were the Human Development Units (UDHs) and the population was constituted by cases of deaths that presented the basic cause of TB registered in the Mortality Information System (SIM) between 2006 and 2016, of the municipality.To identify the risk areas for tuberculosis deaths, the scan statistic was used. Next, we used the technique of Principal Component Analysis that allowed the elaboration of the dimensions of social determinants. The association between social determinants and risk areas for tuberculosis deaths was obtained through binary logistic regression. Bayesian modeling was used, through the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approach, to verify temporal and spatial relative risks and to evaluate its relationship with covariables representative of social determinants. During this period, there were 225 deaths due to tuberculosis and a risk cluster was identified for tuberculosis mortality, with RR = 2.09 (IC95% = 1.48-2.94, p = 0.04). In the logistic model, the social determinants related to school deficit and poverty were associated with the risk cluster of deaths due to tuberculosis (OR = 2.92, IC95% = 1.17-7.28), income had a negative association (OR = 0.05, IC95% = 0.00 - 0.70). The value of the ROC curve of the model was 92.1%. In relation to Bayesian models, there was a reduction in the risk of death due to tuberculosis between 2006 (RR = 1.03) and 2016 (RR = 0.98), as well as risk areas that persisted for more than a decade. Among the social determinants, income was an important factor associated with the risk of death due to tuberculosis, and the increase of a standard deviation in the income corresponded to a 31% decrease in the risk of mortality due to tuberculosis. The results of the study indicate that there is an association between the social determinants and the risk of mortality due to tuberculosis in the municipality under investigation, which is a phenomenon that persists over time. Investment in public policies to improve income distribution may favor a change in this reality. It is hoped that the findings will guide managers and workers at local and regional levels

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Aiming to develop studies relating laboratory spectroradiometry with macro and micronutrients contents of vegetative materials of forest populations of Eucalyptus grandis W Hill ex Maiden, of different ages, an experimental área was selected for the study at the Fundação Estadual de Pesquisas Agropecuárias FEPAGRO FLORESTAS, at Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Departing from the purpose of studying the spectral behaviour, the specific objectives were: 1) to evaluate the leaves of E. grandis contents of macro and micronutrients, in the four climatic seasons, under differente types of soil managements; 2) to evaluate the leaves of E. grandis spectral behaviour including the waveband of 475 to 980ηm and approach the interaction between: climatic seasonal periods, different soil managements and the cardinal points locations of the sampled trees; 3) evaluate the nutritional status of E. grandis young trees leaves through leaf analyses and spectroradiometry, and generate models capable to estimate macro and micronutrients from reflectancy data. Results indicate that the E. grandis population, of 44 months old, shows deficiencies of P, S, B; Cu and Mn showed high contents; N was the only nutrient showing significant differences; there is no significant differences between climatic seasons. For the E. grandis population of 20 months old, variations observed in the nutrients contents were equal to those of the former area; the winter sesason showed a differente behaviour from the other climatic seasons. For the different soil managements, the macro and micronutrients did not vary significantly. Evaluating the reflectancy data for the leaves of E. grandis, of 20 months old, it was concluded that: 1) the summer and spring seasons statistically interfered on the reflectancy; 2) samples of vegetative material may be collected independently of the type of soil management; and, 3) the spectral wavebands that better expresses the vegetation behaviour were the 12, 8, 7 and 3; and, 4) the evaluation of points where the leaves were sampled (East, West, North, South and central) in the no-tillage soil management treatment indicated that: a) sampling of vegetative material should be done separating the central part of the bordering population; and, b) the waveband that better characterized the spectral response of the vegetation was that of number eight. Analysis of the main components indicated the 8, 11 na 12 wavebands as responsible for a total of 98.10% of the reflectancy values under study. The elements P and K showed low adjusted correlation coefficients while generating models considering the elements as dependent variables from reflectancy and climatic seaso;n interacting with wavelengths; the r2aj. values for the remaining elements varied from moderate to high. / Com o intuito de desenvolver estudos relacionando a espectrorradiometria de laboratório com os teores de macro e micronutrientes em materiais vegetativos de povoamentos florestais de Eucalyptus grandis W. Hill ex Maiden, com diferentes idades, uma área experimental foi selecionada para estudo na Fundação Estadual de Pesquisas Agropecuárias FEPAGRO FLORESTAS, Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. A partir da proposta de estudar o comportamento espectral, os objetivos específicos foram: 1) avaliar os teores de macro e micronutrientes de folhas de E. grandis nas quatro estações climáticas do ano em diferentes tipos de preparo de solo; 2) avaliar o comportamento espectral de folhas de Eucalyptus grandis abrangendo o intervalo de comprimento de onda de 475 a 980ηm, e abordar as interações: períodos sazonais, preparos de solo e a localização cardeal das árvores amostradas; 3) avaliar o estado nutricional de folhas de plantas jovens de E. grandis por análise foliar e espectrorradiometria e gerar modelos capazes de estimar os teores de macro e micronutrientes a partir de dados de reflectância. Os resultados indicam que o povoamento de E. grandis, com 44 meses de idade, apresenta deficiência de P, S e B; Cu e Mn apresentam teores elevados; N é o único nutriente que apresenta diferença significativa; entre as estações climáticas não existem diferenças significativas. Para o povoamento de E. grandis com 20 meses, as variações obtidas para os teores de nutrientes foram iguais as da área anterior; a estação inverno apresentou comportamento diferenciado das demais estações. Para os diferentes preparos de solo os macro e micronutrientes, não variaram significativamente. Avaliando os dados de reflectância de folhas de E. grandis, com 20 meses de idade, conclui-se que: 1) as estações verão e primavera interferiram estatisticamente na reflectância; 2) as amostras de material vegetativo podem ser coletadas independentemente do tipo de manejo do solo; 3) as bandas espectrais que melhor expressaram o comportamento da vegetação, foram as bandas 12, 8, 7 e 3; e, 4) a avaliação das posições em que as folhas foram coletas (Leste, Oeste, Norte, Sul e central) no tratamento com preparo de solo plantio direto indicaram que: a) as coletas de material vegetativo devem ser realizadas separando a parte central do povoamento da bordadura; e, b) a banda que melhor caracterizou a resposta espectral dessa vegetação foi a de número oito. A análise de componentes principais indicou as bandas 8, 11 e 12, como responsáveis por um total de 98,10% dos valores de reflectância em estudo. Ao gerar modelos considerando os elementos como variáveis dependentes da reflectância e estação do ano interagindo com comprimentos de onda, os elementos P e K apresentaram os valores dos coeficientes de correlação ajustados baixos; os valores de r2aj. dos demais elementos variaram de moderados a altos.

abstract: In today's world, unprecedented amounts of data of individual mobile objects have become more available due to advances in location aware technologies and services. Studying the spatio-temporal patterns, processes, and behavior of mobile objects is an important issue for extracting useful information and knowledge about mobile phenomena. Potential applications across a wide range of fields include urban and transportation planning, Location-Based Services, and logistics. This research is designed to contribute to the existing state-of-the-art in tracking and modeling mobile objects, specifically targeting three challenges in investigating spatio-temporal patterns and processes; 1) a lack of space-time analysis tools; 2) a lack of studies about empirical data analysis and context awareness of mobile objects; and 3) a lack of studies about how to evaluate and test agent-based models of complex mobile phenomena. Three studies are proposed to investigate these challenges; the first study develops an integrated data analysis toolkit for exploration of spatio-temporal patterns and processes of mobile objects; the second study investigates two movement behaviors, 1) theoretical random walks and 2) human movements in urban space collected by GPS; and, the third study contributes to the research challenge of evaluating the form and fit of Agent-Based Models of human movement in urban space. The main contribution of this work is the conceptualization and implementation of a Geographic Knowledge Discovery approach for extracting high-level knowledge from low-level datasets about mobile objects. This allows better understanding of space-time patterns and processes of mobile objects by revealing their complex movement behaviors, interactions, and collective behaviors. In detail, this research proposes a novel analytical framework that integrates time geography, trajectory data mining, and 3D volume visualization. In addition, a toolkit that utilizes the framework is developed and used for investigating theoretical and empirical datasets about mobile objects. The results showed that the framework and the toolkit demonstrate a great capability to identify and visualize clusters of various movement behaviors in space and time. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Geography 2011

Fluxos de dados são usualmente caracterizados por grandes quantidades de dados gerados continuamente em processos síncronos ou assíncronos potencialmente infinitos, em aplicações como: sistemas meteorológicos, processos industriais, tráfego de veículos, transações financeiras, redes de sensores, entre outras. Além disso, o comportamento dos dados tende a sofrer alterações significativas ao longo do tempo, definindo data streams evolutivos. Estas alterações podem significar eventos temporários (como anomalias ou eventos extremos) ou mudanças relevantes no processo de geração da stream (que resultam em alterações na distribuição dos dados). Além disso, esses conjuntos de dados podem possuir características espaciais, como a localização geográfica de sensores, que podem ser úteis no processo de análise. A detecção dessas variações de comportamento que considere os aspectos da evolução temporal, assim como as características espaciais dos dados, é relevante em alguns tipos de aplicação, como o monitoramento de eventos climáticos extremos em pesquisas na área de Agrometeorologia. Nesse contexto, esse projeto de mestrado propõe uma técnica para auxiliar a análise espaço-temporal em data streams multidimensionais que contenham informações espaciais e não espaciais. A abordagem adotada é baseada em conceitos da Teoria de Fractais, utilizados para análise de comportamento temporal, assim como técnicas para manipulação de data streams e estruturas de dados hierárquicas, visando permitir uma análise que leve em consideração os aspectos espaciais e não espaciais simultaneamente. A técnica desenvolvida foi aplicada a dados agrometeorológicos, visando identificar comportamentos distintos considerando diferentes sub-regiões definidas pelas características espaciais dos dados. Portanto, os resultados deste trabalho incluem contribuições para a área de mineração de dados e de apoio a pesquisas em Agrometeorologia. / Data streams are usually characterized by large amounts of data generated continuously in synchronous or asynchronous potentially infinite processes, in applications such as: meteorological systems, industrial processes, vehicle traffic, financial transactions, sensor networks, among others. In addition, the behavior of the data tends to change significantly over time, defining evolutionary data streams. These changes may mean temporary events (such as anomalies or extreme events) or relevant changes in the process of generating the stream (that result in changes in the distribution of the data). Furthermore, these data sets can have spatial characteristics such as geographic location of sensors, which can be useful in the analysis process. The detection of these behavioral changes considering aspects of evolution, as well as the spatial characteristics of the data, is relevant for some types of applications, such as monitoring of extreme weather events in Agrometeorology researches. In this context, this project proposes a technique to help spatio-temporal analysis in multidimensional data streams containing spatial and non-spatial information. The adopted approach is based on concepts of the Fractal Theory, used for temporal behavior analysis, as well as techniques for data streams handling also hierarchical data structures, allowing analysis tasks that take into account the spatial and non-spatial aspects simultaneously. The developed technique has been applied to agro-meteorological data to identify different behaviors considering different sub-regions defined by the spatial characteristics of the data. Therefore, results from this work include contribution to data mining area and support research in Agrometeorology.

O presente trabalho foi desenvolvido com o objetivo de analisar, por meio da técnica de fotointerpretação, o uso e ocupação do solo na microbacia hidrográfica do córrego do Itaperu/Itapocu, no município de Piracicaba (SP), do período de 1940 até 2016. Foram utilizadas fotografias aéreas dos anos de 1940, 1978, 2000 e 2005 e imagens dos satélites Rapid Eye e Cbers 4 dos anos de 2011 e 2016. Para tanto, o estudo foi dividido em três etapas que consistiram em primeiro analisar o uso e ocupação do solo na microbacia hidrográfica em todo sua extensão; na sequência foi analisada a evolução de áreas urbanas na microbacia e por último foram verificadas as Áreas de Preservação Permanente. Como resultado da primeira etapa foi identificada uma grande mudança da ocupação dos usos do solo ao longo das décadas estudadas. Na segunda etapa, foi constatado o avanço urbano para a área da microbacia hidrográfica que era totalmente rural e ao longo dos anos passou a ser incorporada no perímetro urbano. Na última etapa ao analisar as Áreas de Preservação Permanente, com o crescimento urbano ocorrido no local, houve a extinção de cinco nascentes e alguns cursos d\'água tiveram seu comprimento reduzido. / The present work was developed with the purpose to analyze, by the photointerpretation technique, the use and occupation of the soil in the watershed of the Itaperu/Itapocu stream in the municipality of Piracicaba (SP), between 1940 and 2016. Aerial photographs from the years 1940, 1978, 2000 and 2005 were used, as well as satellite images of Rapid Eye and Cbers 4 from 2011 and 2016. The study was divided into three steps. First, the use and occupation of the soil in the watershed drainage basin in all its extension were analyzed. Next, the evolution of urban areas in the watershed were investigated. Finally, the Permanent Preservation Areas were studied. In the first stage, it was identified a major shift of the occupation of soil uses over the decades studied. In the second, it was found the urban advance into the hydrographic watershed area, which used to be entirely rural and, over the years, became incorporated into the urban area. In the last step, there was the extinction of five springs and some watercourses had their lengths reduced due to urban growth in the area.

Cette thèse résume une démarche intégrée visant à évaluer l’exposition humaine et ses variations spatio-temporelles en cas de tsunami dans une zone urbaine littorale en Indonésie, ainsi que la capacité d’évacuation vers des refuges. Ce travail de recherche systématise des méthodes permettant d’estimer la quantité de population présente heure par heure durant n’importe quel jour de la semaine et de l’année, à une échelle très fine, dans une zone urbaine. Il se fonde pour cela sur une hypothèse de rythme de vie contrôlant les activités et donc la distribution de la population. L’heure d’arrivée d’un tsunami étant imprévisible, ces informations sont très importantes pour améliorer les programmes de réduction du risque. Cette démarche permet ainsi de dégager des scénarios types de distribution de la population, utilisés pour ensuite évaluer la capacité d’évacuation de ces populations. Le modèle de simulation dynamique issu de cette recherche permet de mesurer l’accessibilité des zones selon certains scénarios, et de proposer des améliorations pour une meilleure préparation de la protection des civils. / This dissertation summarizes an integrated approach whose aim is to assess the human exposure and its spatial and temporal variations in the event of a tsunami in a costal urban zone of Indonesia, as well as the capacity to join evacuation shelters for populations under threat. This research systematizes methods to estimate the amount of people present hour by hour during any day of the week and the year, at a very fine scale, in an urban area. It uses a hypothesis about a common rhythm of life which controls the activities and therefore the distribution of the Padang inhabitants. Considering that time of a tsunami occurrence is impossible to estimate, this information is very important to improve risk reduction programs. This approach allows in particular identifying various types of scenarios for the distribution of the population that can then be used to evaluate the evacuation capacity of these populations. A dynamic simulation model resulting from this research allows for the measurement of the accessibility of shelters following these scenarios. The analysis of the results suggests improvements for a better preparation on the part of authorities to protect civilians.

Le changement climatique est incontestable et affecte les océans. L'observation à long terme d'indicateurs comme le plancton peut permettre l'étude de ces changements. Le suivi du plancton dans les eaux côtières d'Europe représente une source de données importante actuellement sous-exploitée et sur laquelle cette étude est basée. Des outils analytiques ont d'abord été conçus pour résoudre des divergences taxonomiques entre les données et pour réaliser l'analyse temporelle. L'étude du plancton à L4 de 1998 à 2007 révèle de profonds changements dans la composition phytoplanctonique des blooms de printemps et d'automne, et des variations à long terme dans l'abondance des taxa dominants du zooplancton. Le phytoplancton gouverne la succession saisonnière des larves méroplanctoniques. Les changements de température de surface et de vent contrôlent les variations temporelles des communautés planctoniques. Les variations spatio-temporelles du zooplancton ont été comparées à 4 sites de 1998 à 2007 : Ston (Mer du Nord), L4 (Manche), MC (Mer Tyrrhénienne ), et C1 (Mer Adriatique). La structure des communautés est globalement stable, la saisonnalité étant la principale source de variabilité à long terme. La chlorophylle a et le vent expliquent les variations de la communauté zooplanctonique à Ston et L4 alors que c'est la température à MC et C1. Cette étude confirme l'extrême adaptabilité des communautés zooplanctoniques à un environnement variable. Elle souligne l'importance de facteurs tels que taxonomie et échelle temporelle pour l'analyse de séries, et la nécessité de maintenir les séries à long terme pour le suivi de futurs changements dans le contexte du changement climatique. / Climate change is unequivocal and dramatic changes are under way in the world's oceans. Long-term observations of indicators such as plankton can provide a better understanding of these changes. Considerable efforts have been made to monitor plankton in European coastal waters and have produced a large amount of datasets yet to be fully exploited. Analytic tools were first developed to solve taxonomic discrepancies in datasets and for temporal analyses. Time series analysis of plankton at L4 from 1988 to 2007 reveals profound changes in the composition of the spring and autumn phytoplankton blooms, and long-term variations in abundance of the dominant zooplankton taxa. Phytoplankton is driving the seasonal succession of meroplanktonic larvae. Changes in sea surface temperature and wind conditions control temporal patterns of plankton communities. Spatio-temporal patterns of zooplankton are compared at 4 sites: Ston (northern North Sea), L4 (wes tern English Channel), MC (Tyrrhenian Sea), and C1 (Adriatic Sea) from 1998 to 2007. The communities structure is on average stable and seasonal variations are the main source of long-term variability. Chlorophyll a and wind are responsible for the community patterns observed at Ston and L4 whereas temperature is the main driver at MC and C1. This study supports evidences of the extreme flexibility of zooplankton communities in adjusting to a variable environment. We highlighted the importance of factors such as taxonomy and temporal scale on time series analysis, and the necessity of maintaining long-term series to monitor future changes in the context of climate change.

L’Arganier [Argania spinosa (L.) Skeels] est un arbre de la famille des Sapotacées, endémique du sud-ouest marocain. C’est un arbre multi-usages, qui constitue une ressource primordiale pour les populations de cet espace semi-aride et aride du Maroc. Il constitue la clef-de-voûte de l’agro-écosystème traditionnel de l’arganeraie reposant sur un équilibre entre ressources et exploitation humaine, et joue également un rôle important dans la lutte contre la désertification et l’érosion. Actuellement, la menace de dégradation de l’arganeraie est une préoccupation majeure aussi bien pour la population que pour les scientifiques. On assiste en effet depuis plusieurs décennies à une diminution du couvert arboré, à la fois en surface occupée et en densité d’arbres. Face à cette préoccupation, nous avons étudié l’espace multidimensionnel de l’arganeraie en cherchant à identifier les principales caractéristiques de cet espace, ainsi que les facteurs responsables de sa dégradation. Ensuite, nous avons dévoilé l’originalité de cet espace à partir de son organisation sociale et spatiale, ainsi que le mode de fonctionnement et de gestion de ce territoire. Dans la deuxième partie nous avons montré l’apport de la télédétection spatiale et des systèmes d’information géographique pour la caractérisation de l’occupation du sol et l’identification des changements à partir d’un suivi diachronique, en utilisant une série d’images SPOT, Landsat, Google Earth, Ikonos. Nous avons également testé la possibilité d'évaluer la densité des arganiers à partir des images à haute résolution spatiale Ikonos et Google Earth. Nous concluons à la nécessité d’un suivi de ce territoire afin de pouvoir évaluer les changements et prendre les mesures d’aménagement et de protection nécessaires / The Argan [Argania spinosa (L.) Skeels] is a species of tree endemic to the calcareous semi-desert Sous valley of southwestern Morocco. It is the sole species in the genus Argania (family of Sapotaceae). It is a multi-purpose tree, and the main resource provider for the population of this semi-arid and arid area (source of forage, oil, timber and fuel). Argan is the keystone species of the traditional agro-ecosystem of the Berber society, ensuring a meta-stable equilibrium between resource availability and anthropic use; it plays a major role in preventing erosion and desertification damages.Currently, in spite of the Biosphere Reserve label attributed by UNESCO in 1998, the threat of degradation of the sparse Argan forest is a main concern for both local population and scientists. Since several decades, a decrease of extension area of the species and of tree density has been observed. According to this preoccupation, we have studied the multidimensional space of the Argan forest, in view of identifying its main features and the potential drivers of degradation processes. Then the originality of this area has been demonstrated through the assessment of its social and spatial organization, and of land-use and management practices.In the second part, we have shown the possible use of remotely sensed data and of Geographic Information Systems for surveying land-use/land-cover and for monitoring changes through a multi-temporal analysis of satellite images: SPOT, Landsat, Ikonos and Google Earth imagery. The evaluation of tree density has been performed through object-oriented classification of high spatial resolution satellite imagery (Ikonos, Google Earth). In conclusion, we recommend the effective use of a monitoring system to follow environmental changes in the Argan tree area, and to produce the detailed information needed for implementation of management and conservation strategies ensuring a sustainable development of the area.