This dissertation presents a basic information-driven sensor management problem, referred to as treasure hunt, that is relevant to mobile-sensor applications such as mine hunting, monitoring, and surveillance. The objective is to classify/infer one or multiple fixed targets or treasures located in an obstacle-populated workspace by planning the path and a sequence of measurements of a robotic sensor installed on a mobile platform associated with the treasures distributed in the sensor workspace. The workspace is represented by a connectivity graph, where each node represents a possible sensor deployment, and the arcs represent possible sensor movements. A methodology is developed for planning the sensing strategy of a robotic sensor deployed. The sensing strategy includes the robotic sensor's path, because it determines which targets are measurable given a bounded field of view. Existing path planning techniques are not directly applicable to robots whose primary objective is to gather sensor measurements. Thus, in this dissertation, a novel approximate cell-decomposition approach is developed in which obstacles, targets, the sensor's platform and field of view are represented as closed and bounded subsets of an Euclidean workspace. The approach constructs a connectivity graph with observation cells that is pruned and transformed into a decision tree, from which an optimal sensing strategy can be computed. It is shown that an additive incremental-entropy function can be used to efficiently compute the expected information value of the measurement sequence over time. The methodology is applied to a robotic landmine classification problem and the board game of CLUE$^{\circledR}$. In the landmine detection application, the optimal strategy of a robotic ground-penetrating radar is computed based on prior remote measurements and environmental information. Extensive numerical experiments show that this methodology outperforms shortest-path, complete-coverage, random, and grid search strategies, and is applicable to non-overpass capable platforms that must avoid targets as well as obstacles. The board game of CLUE$^{\circledR}$ is shown to be an excellent benchmark example of treasure hunt problem. The test results show that a player implementing the strategies developed in this dissertation outperforms players implementing Bayesian networks only, Q-learning, or constraint satisfaction, as well as human players. / Dissertation

WHAT WAS DONE? This study researches the success of several value investment strategies in the stock markets of the United Kingdom and Germany based on nine firm fundamentals that are extracted from listed firms annual financial statements. In this regard, we first examine alternative forecast combination methods in a novel way to utilise fully the financial information at hand. Second, we examine the drivers of investment returns, particularly the role of information uncertainty, for which a new direct measure is developed. Finally, we evaluate the performance of these financial health investment strategies in alternative institutional environments by focusing on the differences between the two markets regarding both their corporate culture and their legal environment. WHY WAS IT DONE? Similar to economics, the discipline of finance is a social science because its observations emanate from economic transactions between humans. Nevertheless, a significant part of the research in this area is undertaken by means that are almost exclusively applied to the natural sciences, such as mathematics or physics. Although the reasons seem manifold, an increased form of scientificity, in conjunction with greater credibility of the research process and results, is deemed to be of primary importance. However, the benchmark for evaluating these research outcomes differs from those used in the natural sciences. From the example of the efficient market hypothesis one can see that alternative research results that cast serious doubt upon efficiency per se are disregarded as aberrations, leading to the assumption that the hypothesis in its entirety is more or less valid. This study assumes that inefficiencies in the stock market do exist for prolonged periods of time and investors are actually able to benefit from them. HOW WAS IT DONE? Secondary financial statement data of listed companies in the United Kingdom and Germany were downloaded from Datastream for the period between 1992 and 2010. A quantitative analysis of the significance of the correlation between groups of firms with similar financial characteristics and their one-year-ahead stock returns was subsequently performed. Various combination methods for differential weighting of individual financial statement items were conducted. The aim was to increase the profitability of the investment strategy. WHAT WAS FOUND? In general, a classification of stocks according to certain internal criteria of financial health is capable of separating future winners from losers and at the same time confirms the results of a previous US study. More specifically, we first show that a wide range of combination methods generate profitable investment strategies whereby especially measures of profitability are the central indicator of a firm s future performance. Secondly, the more complex methods neither consistently nor substantively outperform the simpler methods. Thirdly, information uncertainty does not seem to be the prime driver of the profitability of an investment strategy. Lastly, we show that financial health investment strategies are profitable both in market-oriented, common law settings and in bank-oriented, code law settings.

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[pt] Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar um projeto de exploração e produção de petróleo típico do pré-sal brasileiro em processo de unitização que possui incertezas técnicas e de mercado e flexibilidade gerencial para adiar o investimento. Esse tipo de projeto, na maioria das empresas, é valorado através dos métodos tradicionais de análise econômica financeira. Já se sabe, no entanto, que quando se tem incertezas e flexibilidade gerencial, existem opções associadas, que tem o potencial de aumentar o valor dos ativos. Foi realizada uma aplicação numérica a um campo de petróleo hipotético através da metodologia de opções reais utilizando dados típicos da indústria. Foi avaliada a alternativa de adquirir informação de reservatório através da realização de um teste de longa duração (TLD), com intuito de reduzir as incertezas técnicas antes da unitização e elaboração do plano de desenvolvimento do campo. Considerando a opção de postergar o investimento no projeto para a realização do TLD, foi possível analisar também o impacto da incerteza de mercado que é, neste caso, o preço futuro do petróleo. Os resultados do estudo indicam que, para todas as partes envolvidas, é ótimo esperar e investir em informação antes de fechar o processo de unitização. Como contribuição, esta dissertação propõe a aplicação de um modelo de opções reais que analisa o valor da informação e o momento ótimo de investimento. Com isso foi possível determinar oVPL de um projeto de desenvolvimento da produção de um campo de petróleoque traz o maior retorno para todas as partes envolvidas. / [en] This paper analyzes a typical pre-salt oil exploration and production project under an unitization process that has technical and market uncertainties and managerial flexibility to defer the investment. This type of project in most companies is valued through traditional methods of economic and financial analysis. It is known, however, that when there are uncertainties and managerial flexibility, there are associated options that have the potential to increase the value of the project. A numerical application to a hypothetical oil field was made using industry-typical data under the real options approach. The alternative of acquiring reservoir information through an extended well test (EWT) was evaluated in order to reduce technical uncertainties before the unitization process and the draw up of the field development plan. Considering the option to defer the investment in order to do the EWT, it was also possible to analyze the impact of the market uncertainty, which in this case are the future oil prices. The results of the study indicate that, for all stakeholders, waiting and investing in information before finalizing the unitization process is optimal. As a contribution, this dissertation proposes the application of a real option model which analyzes the value of information and the optimal investment timing. With this, it was possible to determine the NPV of an oil field development project that provides the highest return to all stakeholders.

To decrease the ecological footprint, humans either have to adjust their lifestyles, or the large scale industries must take corporate social responsibility. This study is based on the well-developed field of energy efficiency in industries by applying technology and organizational-focused proposals. The proposals are based on three different aspects, the economic, the environmental, and the social. These three aspects combined are called the triple bottom line perspective. An original case of the study objects energy balance was determined to develop the conclusions, with the simulation program IDA ICE. The study object was GKN ePowertrain, located in Köping. Energy efficiency cases were simulated in IDA ICE to observe the change in the energy balance. The cases and interviews of the employees were the foundation of the discussion where the improvements were critically reviewed from the triple bottom line perspective. The result shown that the temperature was too high for working conditions, the ventilation system consumes a large quantity of energy, and the internal flow of information is insufficient. In conclusion, GKN ePowertrain would increase their overall value by investing in a cooling system and more efficient heat exchangers for their ventilation system. These investments would notably increase their short term value of environmental sustainability and the social aspect. Furthermore, their economic value would increase in the long term. The cooling system would improve the working environment, and a new ventilation system would increase the heat recovery and decrease the energy consumed, even more than the consumption of the cooling system. Finally, GKN should also be more distinct in their information to the employees in the building regarding energy aims and their working environment, to have a positive gain of value in all the fields.

Wie sollten Zentralbanken Geldpolitik gestalten und der Öffentlichkeit kommunizieren, um die Ökonomie bestmöglich zu stabilisieren? Diese Dissertation, bestehend aus drei selbständigen Essays in dynamischer Makroökonomik, widmet sich in erster Linie dem normativen Aspekt von Geldpolitik. Das Hauptresultat im ersten Essay ist, dass bei idiosynkratischen Risiko die öffentliche Bekanntgabe von Informationen zu aggregierten Risiko einen negativen Effekt auf die soziale Wohlfahrt haben kann: durch die Veröffentlichung von Informationen zu nicht-versicherbaren aggregierten Risiko werden die Versicherungsanreize der Individuen verzerrt und damit das individuelle Konsumrisiko erhöht. Als eine Anwendung, analysieren wir die Situation einer Zentralbank, die die Möglichkeit hat, Veränderungen in ihren Inflationszielen anzukündigen und dokumentieren, das der negative Effekt der verzerrten Versicherungsanreize konventionelle positive Aspekte der Ankündigung überwiegt. In zweiten Essay untersuchen wir optimale Geldpolitik in Falle von nominalen Rigiditäten und einer Transaktionsfriktion. In einem Standardmodell, Money-in-the-Utility function, zeigen wir, dass das langfristige Optimum durch die Friedmansche Regel gegeben ist. Daraus folgt für die kurze Frist, dass das Primat von Geldpolitik auf die Stabilisierung der Zinsen und nicht auf Inflationsstabilisierung ausgelegt sein sollte. Im dritten Essay untersuche ich, ob die Existenz und die Terminierung von Realkasseneffekten eine wichtige Rolle für die Determiniertheit des allgemeinen Preisniveaus spielen. Als wichtigstes neues Resultat zeige ich, dass auch bei Zinspolitik ein eindeutiges Preisniveau bestimmt werden kann, wenn die Geldmenge zu Beginn der Periode in Transaktionen verwendet wird. Unter diesen Umständen, hat prädeterminiertes reales Geld die Funktion einer Zustandsvariable und die Zinspolitik sollte passiv sein, um eindeutige, stabile und nicht-oszillierende Gleichgewichtssequenzen zu erreichen. / How should central banks conduct and communicate their policies to serve the goal of stabilizing the macroeconomy? This thesis -- consisting of three self-contained essays on dynamic macroeconomics -- is mainly intended as a progress report on exploring the normative aspect of monetary policy. The main result of the first essay is, that in the presence of idiosyncratic risk, the public revelation of information about uncertain aggregate outcomes can be detrimental. By announcing informative signals on non-insurable aggregate risk, the policy maker distorts agents'' insurance incentives and increases the riskiness of the optimal allocation that is feasible in self-enforceable arrangements. We consider a monetary authority that may reveal changes in the inflation target, and document that the negative effect of distorted insurance incentives can very well dominate conventional effects in favor for the release of better information. In the second essay, we study optimal monetary policy with the nominal interest rate as the single policy instrument. Firms set prices in a staggered way without indexation and real money balances contribute separately to households'' utility. The optimal deterministic steady state under commitment is the Friedman rule for a broad range of parameters. Optimal monetary policy in the short run is then characterized by stabilization of the nominal interest rate instead of inflation stabilization as the predominant principle. In the third essay, I examine whether the existence and the timing of real balance effects contribute to the determination of the absolute price level. As the main novel result, I show that there exists a unique price level sequence that is consistent with an equilibrium under interest rate policy, if beginning-of-period money yields transaction services. Predetermined real money balances can then serve as a state variable, implying that interest rate setting should be passive -- a violation of the Taylor-principle.

The complexity in multiscale systems design is significantly greater than in conventional systems because in addition to interactions between components, couplings between physical phenomena and scales are also important. This complexity amplifies two design challenges: a) complexity of coupled simulation models prohibits design space exploration, and b) unavailability of complete simulation models that capture all the interactions. Hence, the challenge in design of multiscale systems lies in managing this complexity and utilizing the available simulation models and information in an efficient manner to support effective decision-making. In order to address this challenge, our primary hypothesis is that the information and computational resources can be utilized in an efficient manner by designing design-processes (meta-design) along with the products. The primary hypothesis is embodied in this dissertation as a framework for integrated design of products and design processes. The framework consists of three components 1) a Robust Multiscale Design Exploration Method (RMS-DEM), 2) information-economics based metrics and methods for simplification of complex design processes and refinement of simulation models, and 3) an information modeling strategy for implementation of the theoretical framework into a computational environment. The framework is validated using the validation-square approach that consists of theoretical and empirical validation. Empirical validation of the framework is carried out using various examples including: pressure vessel design, datacenter cooling system design, linear cellular alloy design, and multifunctional energetic structural materials design. The contributions from this dissertation are categorized in three research domains: a) multiscale design methodology, b) materials design, and c) computer-based support for collaborative, simulation-based multiscale design. In the domain of design methodology, new methods and metrics are developed for integrating the design of products and design processes. The methods and metrics are applied in the field of materials design to develop design-processes and specifications for Multifunctional Energetic Structural Materials. In the domain of computer-based support for design, an information modeling strategy is developed to provide computational support for meta-design. Although the framework is developed in the context of multiscale systems it is equally applicable to design of any other complex system.

Reservoir economic performance is based upon future cash flows which can be generated from a reservoir. Future cash flows are a function of hydrocarbon volumetric flow rates which a reservoir can produce, and the market conditions. Both of these functions of future cash flows are associated with uncertainties. There is uncertainty associated in estimates of future hydrocarbon flow rates due to uncertainty in geological model, limited availability and type of data, and the complexities involved in the reservoir modeling process. The second source of uncertainty associated with future cash flows come from changing oil prices, rate of return etc., which are all functions of market dynamics. Robust integration of these two sources of uncertainty, i.e. future hydrocarbon flow rates and market dynamics, in a model to predict cash flows from a reservoir is an essential part of risk assessment, but a difficult task. Current practices to assess a reservoir’s economic performance by using Deterministic Cash Flow (DCF) methods have been unsuccessful in their predictions because of lack in parametric capability to robustly and completely incorporate these both types of uncertainties. This thesis presents a procedure which accounts for uncertainty in hydrocarbon production forecasts due to incomplete geologic information, and a novel real options methodology to assess the project economics for upstream petroleum industry. The modeling approach entails determining future hydrocarbon production rates due to incomplete geologic information with and without secondary information. The price of hydrocarbons is modeled separately, and the costs to produce them are determined based on market dynamics. A real options methodology is used to assess the effective cash flows from the reservoir, and hence, to determine the project economics. This methodology associates realistic probabilities, which are quantified using the method’s parameters, with benefits and costs. The results from this methodology are compared against the results from DCF methodology to examine if the real options methodology can identify some hidden potential of a reservoir’s performance which DCF might not be able to uncover. This methodology is then applied to various case studies and strategies for planning and decision making. / text

This dissertation consists of three essays wherein tools of financial econometrics are used to study the three aspects of farmland valuation puzzle: short-term boom-bust cycles, overpricing of farmland, and inconclusive effects of direct government payments. Essay I addresses the causes of unexplained short-term boom-bust cycles in farmland values in a dynamic land pricing model (DLPM). The analysis finds that gross return rate of farmland asset decreases as the farmland asset level increases, and that the diminishing return function of farmland asset contributes to the boom-bust cycles in farmland values. Furthermore, it is mathematically proved that land values are potentially unstable under diminishing return functions. We also find that intertemporal elasticity of substitution, risk aversion, and transaction costs are important determinants of farmland asset values. Essay II examines the apparent overpricing of farmland by decomposing the forecast error variance of farmland prices into forward looking and backward looking components. The analysis finds that in the short run, the forward looking Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) portion of the forecast errors are significantly higher in a boom or bust stage than in a stable stage. This shows that the farmland market absorbs economic information in a discriminative manner according to the stability of the market, and the market (and actors therein) responds to new information gradually as suggested by the theory. This helps to explain the overpricing of farmland, but this explanation works primarily in the short run. Finally, essay III investigates the duel effects of direct government payments and climate change on farmland values. This study uses a smooth coefficient semi-parametric panel data model. The analysis finds that land valuation is affected by climate change and government payments, both through discounted revenues and through effects on the risk aversion of land owners. This essay shows that including heterogeneous risk aversion is an efficient way to mitigate the impacts of misspecifications in a DLPM, and that precipitation is a good explanatory variable. In particular, precipitation affects land values in a bimodal manner, indicating that farmland prices could have multiple peaks in precipitation due to adaption through crop selection and technology alternation.

由於資訊科技的發展，傳統的編目作業面臨轉型的壓力，必須尋求自我提昇，提供更多的加值服務，才能因應知識經濟時代的需要。本文主要探討圖書書目著錄應加強那些項目的加值分析，以提昇資料的檢索與使用率。本研究以問卷調查編目館員，並訪談教授分類編目相關課程的教師，目的在探討傳統編目作業的轉型，及研究資料組織中的加值作業要點，進而探討編目館員的在職訓練及編目教育如何因應加值分析的需要。 本研究發現，在新科技對編目作業的衝擊下，編目部門組織與作業進行調整；編目人力縮編；原始編目所佔的比率降低；書目著錄應加強著錄的項目為內容分析、目次、摘要、書評、封面、附錄，以及書目資料的連結關係；作好加值分析必須克服人力不足及系統配合之問題，瞭解讀者的檢索需求，以及透過「全國圖書資訊網」推動書目著錄加值分析作業；同時必須重視編目館員的在職訓練及編目教育，培養編目館員的學科背景、外語能力，以及具備運用現代技術和設備的能力。 對圖書館進行書目著錄加值分析作業方面的建議：（1）圖書館應修訂書目著錄加值分析的作業規範；（2）各館應重視書目著錄之加值分析；（3）瞭解讀者對目錄使用的需要，設計多元化的檢索方式；（4）編目館員應隨時注意標準與新科技的發展；（5）在圖書資訊學系所課程中強調加值分析的理念，或加開相關課程，並加強在職訓練的課程內容。希望藉此喚起對書目著錄的重視，作好書目著錄的加值分析，提供完善的資訊，滿足讀者多元化的檢索需求。