O trabalho desenvolvido tem como objetivo principal testar a teoria da Paridade do Poder de Compra Generalizada (PPCG) para um conjunto de países latino-americanos. O teste consiste em verificar se existe ao menos um vetor de cointegração entre as taxas de câmbio real de um conjunto de países. Os testes de raiz unitária ADF, Phillips-Perron e ADF-GLS foram realizados, num primeiro momento, para detecção da ordem de integração das séries. As séries da Bolívia, Chile e México foram excluídas da análise de cointegração, pois os testes apontaram suas estacionaridades. A análise de cointegração entre cada país latino-americano e cinco países do G-7 não forneceu resultados robustos no que concerne à existência de um vetor de cointegração. Testes bilaterais apontaram a verificação da PPCG em três casos: Argentina e Uruguai; Colômbia e Venezuela; e Equador e Paraguai. Então, foram considerados três grupos de países da região, para os quais se verificou a validade da PPCG. Num segundo momento, foram realizados dois testes de raiz unitária com quebras estruturais: Zivot e Andrews (1992) e Perron (1997). Estes testes apontaram a estacionaridade das séries da Colômbia e do Equador, além das já excluídas anteriormente. Então, formou-se um quarto grupo, composto por Brasil, Argentina, Paraguai, Peru e Venezuela, para o qual não foi verificada a hipótese da PPCG. O trabalho propõe o conceito de zona de integração potencial e, com base nos testes de raiz unitária com quebras estruturais, constatou-se a existência de uma zona de integração potencial entre Bolívia e Equador e Chile e Uruguai. / This work has as the main objective to test the Generalized Purchasing Power Parity (GPPP) theory for selected Latin-American countries. The test is about checking the the existence of at least one cointegration vector between the real exchange rates for that countries. First, the ADF, Phillips-Perron, and ADF-GLS unit root tests were carried out in order to detect the cointegration order of the real exchange rates. The Bolivia, Chile, and Mexico series were dropped from the cointegration analysis because the tests pointed to stationarities. The cointegration analysis between each Latin-American country and five countries of the G-7 don’t show robust results regarding the exixtence of one cointegration vector. Bilateral tests point to the GPPP validity in three cases: Argentina and Uruguay; Colombia and Venezuela; and Equador and Paraguay. Then, we considered three groups of the region’countries and it was verified the GPPP validity. Two unit root tests in the presence of structural breaks were carried out, namely, Zivot and Andrews (1992), and Perron (1997). Both further point to the stationarity of the Colombia and Equador series. Thus, a fourth group was considered, made up of: Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Peru, and Venezuela; for these the GPPP hypothesis was rejected. We suggest a potential integration area concept based on the unit root tests in the presence of structural breaks; here it was verified the existence of such an area between Bolivia and Equador, and Chile and Uruguay.

O trabalho desenvolvido tem como objetivo principal testar a teoria da Paridade do Poder de Compra Generalizada (PPCG) para um conjunto de países latino-americanos. O teste consiste em verificar se existe ao menos um vetor de cointegração entre as taxas de câmbio real de um conjunto de países. Os testes de raiz unitária ADF, Phillips-Perron e ADF-GLS foram realizados, num primeiro momento, para detecção da ordem de integração das séries. As séries da Bolívia, Chile e México foram excluídas da análise de cointegração, pois os testes apontaram suas estacionaridades. A análise de cointegração entre cada país latino-americano e cinco países do G-7 não forneceu resultados robustos no que concerne à existência de um vetor de cointegração. Testes bilaterais apontaram a verificação da PPCG em três casos: Argentina e Uruguai; Colômbia e Venezuela; e Equador e Paraguai. Então, foram considerados três grupos de países da região, para os quais se verificou a validade da PPCG. Num segundo momento, foram realizados dois testes de raiz unitária com quebras estruturais: Zivot e Andrews (1992) e Perron (1997). Estes testes apontaram a estacionaridade das séries da Colômbia e do Equador, além das já excluídas anteriormente. Então, formou-se um quarto grupo, composto por Brasil, Argentina, Paraguai, Peru e Venezuela, para o qual não foi verificada a hipótese da PPCG. O trabalho propõe o conceito de zona de integração potencial e, com base nos testes de raiz unitária com quebras estruturais, constatou-se a existência de uma zona de integração potencial entre Bolívia e Equador e Chile e Uruguai. / This work has as the main objective to test the Generalized Purchasing Power Parity (GPPP) theory for selected Latin-American countries. The test is about checking the the existence of at least one cointegration vector between the real exchange rates for that countries. First, the ADF, Phillips-Perron, and ADF-GLS unit root tests were carried out in order to detect the cointegration order of the real exchange rates. The Bolivia, Chile, and Mexico series were dropped from the cointegration analysis because the tests pointed to stationarities. The cointegration analysis between each Latin-American country and five countries of the G-7 don’t show robust results regarding the exixtence of one cointegration vector. Bilateral tests point to the GPPP validity in three cases: Argentina and Uruguay; Colombia and Venezuela; and Equador and Paraguay. Then, we considered three groups of the region’countries and it was verified the GPPP validity. Two unit root tests in the presence of structural breaks were carried out, namely, Zivot and Andrews (1992), and Perron (1997). Both further point to the stationarity of the Colombia and Equador series. Thus, a fourth group was considered, made up of: Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Peru, and Venezuela; for these the GPPP hypothesis was rejected. We suggest a potential integration area concept based on the unit root tests in the presence of structural breaks; here it was verified the existence of such an area between Bolivia and Equador, and Chile and Uruguay.

O trabalho desenvolvido tem como objetivo principal testar a teoria da Paridade do Poder de Compra Generalizada (PPCG) para um conjunto de países latino-americanos. O teste consiste em verificar se existe ao menos um vetor de cointegração entre as taxas de câmbio real de um conjunto de países. Os testes de raiz unitária ADF, Phillips-Perron e ADF-GLS foram realizados, num primeiro momento, para detecção da ordem de integração das séries. As séries da Bolívia, Chile e México foram excluídas da análise de cointegração, pois os testes apontaram suas estacionaridades. A análise de cointegração entre cada país latino-americano e cinco países do G-7 não forneceu resultados robustos no que concerne à existência de um vetor de cointegração. Testes bilaterais apontaram a verificação da PPCG em três casos: Argentina e Uruguai; Colômbia e Venezuela; e Equador e Paraguai. Então, foram considerados três grupos de países da região, para os quais se verificou a validade da PPCG. Num segundo momento, foram realizados dois testes de raiz unitária com quebras estruturais: Zivot e Andrews (1992) e Perron (1997). Estes testes apontaram a estacionaridade das séries da Colômbia e do Equador, além das já excluídas anteriormente. Então, formou-se um quarto grupo, composto por Brasil, Argentina, Paraguai, Peru e Venezuela, para o qual não foi verificada a hipótese da PPCG. O trabalho propõe o conceito de zona de integração potencial e, com base nos testes de raiz unitária com quebras estruturais, constatou-se a existência de uma zona de integração potencial entre Bolívia e Equador e Chile e Uruguai. / This work has as the main objective to test the Generalized Purchasing Power Parity (GPPP) theory for selected Latin-American countries. The test is about checking the the existence of at least one cointegration vector between the real exchange rates for that countries. First, the ADF, Phillips-Perron, and ADF-GLS unit root tests were carried out in order to detect the cointegration order of the real exchange rates. The Bolivia, Chile, and Mexico series were dropped from the cointegration analysis because the tests pointed to stationarities. The cointegration analysis between each Latin-American country and five countries of the G-7 don’t show robust results regarding the exixtence of one cointegration vector. Bilateral tests point to the GPPP validity in three cases: Argentina and Uruguay; Colombia and Venezuela; and Equador and Paraguay. Then, we considered three groups of the region’countries and it was verified the GPPP validity. Two unit root tests in the presence of structural breaks were carried out, namely, Zivot and Andrews (1992), and Perron (1997). Both further point to the stationarity of the Colombia and Equador series. Thus, a fourth group was considered, made up of: Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Peru, and Venezuela; for these the GPPP hypothesis was rejected. We suggest a potential integration area concept based on the unit root tests in the presence of structural breaks; here it was verified the existence of such an area between Bolivia and Equador, and Chile and Uruguay.

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Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:25:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Eli Hadad Junior.pdf: 290403 bytes, checksum: 413b010b2b66c535b71df800b9626c61 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-08-10 / The dissertation analyzes data of the Brazilian household consumption and income between the years 1947 and 2009. The study aims to evaluate to what extent the aggregate consumption of Brazilian household may approximate be a random walk. The dissertation uses Johansen's cointegration techniques (1988, 1991) and super exogeneity tests as proposed by Engle and Hendry et al. (1983). The dissertation attempts to evaluate whether interventions that affect consumption will impact the dynamics of aggregate income. These interventions can occur through credit policies and tax changes, among other macroeconomic shocks. Finally, a decomposition is made following the methodology proposed by Gonzalo-Granger (1995) and evaluating the importance of shocks in permanent and temporary changes in consumption. / A dissertação analisa os dados de consumo e renda das famílias brasileiras entre os anos de 1947 e 2009. O trabalho visa avaliar em que medida o consumo agregado das famílias brasileiras pode ser bem aproximando a partir de um passeio aleatório puro. O trabalho utiliza técnicas de cointegração de Johansen (1988, 1991) e testes de super exogeneidade na forma proposta por Hendry, Engle et al. (1983). A dissertação procura avaliar se intervenções que afetam o consumo das famílias geram impacto na dinâmica da renda agregada das mesmas. Tais intervenções podem ser por políticas de crédito, alterações tributárias, choque macroeconômicos entre outras. Por fim uma decomposição entre fatores permanentes e transitórios será feita pela metodologia proposta por Gonzalo-Granger (1995) com o objetivo de avaliar-se a importância dos choques permanentes e transitórios para as variações do consumo.

本文使用 1981 年 1 月 5 日至 1997 年 5 月 31 日台灣加權股價指數以及交易股數的資料探討台灣股市的時間序列特性，並且針對政府對股市的干預政策檢定政策干預的有效性。本文採用的實證方法包含 Augmented Dickey-Fuller(ADF)單根檢定，Perron 結構性改變檢定， ARCH 效果檢定，干預分析(Intervention Analysis)以及 Granger 因果關係檢定。實證檢定的結果如下： 1、在單根檢定方面，股價指數、交易股數和股價指數變異數三個時間序列都是一階穩定序列。 2、在 Parron 結構性改變檢定方面，股價指數、交易股數和股價指數變異數三個時間序列在 1990 年 5 月到 10 月之間曾經發生明顯的結構性改變。 3、在 ARCH 效果檢定方面，股價指數和交易股數二個時間序列的殘差項都有 ARCH(1)效果存在，而股價指數變異數的殘差項不存在 ARCH(1)效果。 4、在干預分析方面，穩定基金對股價指數的干預效果不顯著。 在漲跌幅限制方面，漲跌幅限制的變動對股價指數、交易股數及股價指數變異數的干預效果都不明顯。 在證卷交易稅稅率改變的干預分析方面，證卷交易稅稅率改變對交易股數和股價指數變異數沒有影響，但是證交稅稅率變動和股價指數呈現正向的關係。 5、在 Granger 因果關係檢定方面，本研究發現漲跌幅限制改變和股價指數漲跌二者互為因果，但是股價指數對漲跌幅的影響較大。 在證卷交易稅稅率改變與股市的因果關係方面，本研究發現股價指數的漲跌是證交稅稅率改變之因，顯示主管機關的證交稅稅率政策是受股市的市場狀況所左右。 / In this paper, I examine the effectiveness of official intervention in Taiwan's equity market. I consider the security transaction tax, price limit and stabilization funds as examples. The nonstationarity and structural changes of equity index time-series process were first detected and detrended. The Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model is employed to examine the intervention effectiveness, since it allows for a formal test of changes in the index mean level, index conditional variance or both, in response to the changes of security transaction tax and price limit. The results implies that policy authority adjusted security transaction tax and price limit in accordance to the change of equity index level. I also find that the imposition of security transaction tax and price limit have no significant effect on reducing the equity index volatility.

Submitted by Cristiano Daimond Gomes (cristianodgomes@gmail.com) on 2014-02-28T14:21:40Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Cristiano.Gomes.2014_02_18.pdf: 300845 bytes, checksum: d30881b36322c420328af2824f18ebb2 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2014-02-28T14:33:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Cristiano.Gomes.2014_02_18.pdf: 300845 bytes, checksum: d30881b36322c420328af2824f18ebb2 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-02-28T15:10:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Cristiano.Gomes.2014_02_18.pdf: 300845 bytes, checksum: d30881b36322c420328af2824f18ebb2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-01-30 / Nas últimas décadas, o agronegócio brasileiro tem ganhado cada vez mais relevância para a economia nacional, apresentando significativos ganhos de produtividade. Estes ganhos ocorreram devido a maior absorção de tecnologia pelos produtores agrícolas, incluindo o uso de insumos, dentre os quais se destacam os fertilizantes. As vendas de fertilizantes no Brasil cresceram 5,9% entre 1991 e 2012, atingindo 29,5 milhões de toneladas em 2012. Apesar disso, no Brasil, poucos trabalhos tratam dos fatores que afetam as suas vendas. Justifica-se, assim o presente estudo que tem como objetivo analisar os principais fatores que afetam as vendas brasileiras de fertilizantes para a soja. A metodologia utilizada é a de séries temporais e o período da análise é o de 1988 a 2012. Para atingir o objetivo uma função de vendas foi estimada considerando as propriedades de integração e cointegração das séries temporais. O modelo proposto para explicar as vendas de fertilizantes para a soja incluíam as seguintes variáveis exógenas: área plantada de soja; preço dos fertilizantes para a soja; produtividade da soja e preço da soja. A variável preço da soja apresentou uma alta multicolinearidade com a área plantada de soja, e por isto não foi incluída no modelo final. Os resultados encontrados no estudo mostram que a área plantada é o fator que exerce maior influência sobre as vendas de fertilizantes para a soja, sendo que um choque positivo de 1% sobre o crescimento da área plantada tem efeito positivo de 1,8% sobre as vendas de fertilizantes para a soja. O preço dos fertilizantes para a soja resultou em um coeficiente negativo conforme era esperado. A produtividade da soja foi utilizada como uma proxy para a capitalização do produtor agrícola, e, assim como a área plantada, ela apresentou sinal positivo, embora de menor magnitude e não estatisticamente significativo. / In recent decades the Brazilian agribusiness has increasing its importance for the national economy showing significant increases in productivity. These gains in productivity were due to greater diffusion of the use of technology by farmers, including an intensification of the inputs used, among which stand out the fertilizer. Between 1991 and 2012, sales of fertilizers in Brazil grew 5.9%, reaching 29.5 million tons in 2012. Despite the huge growth in sales little has been studied about the factors that affect the sales of fertilizers in Brazil. The aim of this study was to analyze the main factors that affected sales of fertilizers for soybeans in Brazil in the period 1988 to 2012. To achieve this goal a function of demand was estimated considering the properties of integration and co - integration of time series. The proposed model specified the sales of fertilizers for soybeans from the following exogenous variables: soybean acreage, fertilizer prices for soybeans, soybean yield, soybean prices. The variable price of soybeans showed high multicollinearity with the soybean acreage, and therefore was not included in the final model. The results from the final model showed that acreage is the factor that has the most influence on the sales of fertilizers for soybeans, with a positive 1% shock on growth of planted area effect 1.8% growth on sales fertilizer for soybeans. The price of fertilizer for soybeans resulted in a negative coefficient as expected. Soybean yield was used as a proxy for the capitalization of the agricultural producer and acreage she presented positive sign, although of lesser magnitude compared to acreage, but the coefficient was not significant.

Los desequilibrios externos son un tema relevante porque nos permite conocer sobre las gestiones del país y las políticas que se han aplicado anteriormente hasta la actualidad. El estudio de la sostenibilidad de la cuenta corriente es un indicador que ayuda a los inversionistas y a los formuladores de políticas dado que brindan señales de opción inversión en el país o si es necesario realizar nuevos cambios en las políticas económicas del país. En este estudio, aplicamos el enfoque realizado por Bohn (2007), en el que se incluye a los activos internacionales netos. Además, se evalúa de manera conjunta los activos internacionales netos con la cuenta corriente, el cual permite obtener una visión más amplia y menos restrictiva respecto a los enfoques tradicionales dado que es un análisis multivariado. El período de investigación es de 1992-2020, el cual se divide en 2 subperiodos: periodo 1 (1992-2008) y período 2 (2004-2020). El resultado de la investigación identificó en el primer período (1992-2008) una sostenibilidad débil de la cuenta corriente según el enfoque tradicional, mientras que mediante el método de Bohn, no existe sostenibilidad en dicho período. Por otro lado, en el segundo período (2004-2020) los resultados indican la presencia de la sostenibilidad de la cuenta corriente en el enfoque tradicional y en el enfoque de Bohn. / External imbalances are a relevant issue because they allow us to learn about the country's efforts and the policies that have been applied previously until now. The study of the sustainability of the current account is an indicator that helps investors and policy makers since they provide signals of investment option in the country or if it is necessary to make new changes in the country's economic policies. In this study, we apply the approach taken by Bohn (2007), which includes net international assets. In addition, net international assets are jointly evaluated with the current account, which allows a broader and less restrictive view to be obtained with respect to traditional approaches since it is a multivariate analysis. The research period is 1992-2020, which is divided into 2 sub-periods: period 1 (1992-2008) and period 2 (2004-2020). The result of the research identified in the first period (1992-2008) a weak sustainability of the current account according to the traditional approach, while using the Bohn method, there is no sustainability. On the other hand, in the second period (2004-2020) the results indicate the presence of the sustainability of the current account in the traditional approach and in the Bohn approach. / Trabajo de investigación

The financial crisis of 2007/8 has triggered a profound debate about public budget finance sustainability, ever-increasing government expenditures and the efficiency of fiscal policy measures. Given this context, the following dissertation provides four contributions that analyze the long-run growth of government spending throughout economic development, discuss potential effects of fiscal policy measures on output, and provide new insights into the assessment of debt sustainability for a variety of industrialized countries. Since the breakout of the European debt crisis in 2009/2010, there has been a revival of interest in the long-term growth of government expenditures. In this context, the relationship between the size of the public sector and economic growth - often referred to as Wagner's law - has been in the focus of numerous studies, especially with regard to public policy and fiscal sustainability. Using historical data from the mid-19th century, the first chapter analyzes the validity of Wagner's law for five industrialized European countries and links the discussion to different stages of economic development. In line with Wagner's hypothesis, our findings show that the relationship between public spending and economic growth has weakened at an advanced stage of development. Furthermore, all countries under review support the notion that Wagner's law may have lost its economic relevance in recent decades. As a consequence of the 2007/8 financial crisis, there has been an increasing theoretical and empirical debate about the impact of fiscal policy measures on output. Accordingly, the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach to estimating the fiscal multipliers developed by Blanchard and Perotti (2002) has been applied widely in the literature in recent years. In the second chapter, we point out that the fiscal multipliers derived from this approach include the predicted future path of the policy instruments as well as their dynamic interaction. We analyze a data set from the US and document that these interactions are economically and statistically significant. In a counterfactual simulation, we report fiscal multipliers that abstract from these dynamic responses. Furthermore, we use our estimates to analyze the recent fiscal stimulus of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). The third chapter contributes to the existing empirical literature on fiscal multipliers by applying a five-variable SVAR approach to a uniform data set for Belgium, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Besides studying the effects of expenditure and tax increases on output, we additionally analyze their dynamic effects on inflation and interest rates as well as the dynamic interaction of both policy instruments. By conducting counterfactual simulations, which abstract from the dynamic response of key macroeconomic variables to the initial fiscal shocks, we study the importance of these channels for the transmission of fiscal policy on output. Overall, the results demonstrate that the effects of fiscal shocks are limited and rather different across countries. Further, it is shown that the inflation and interest rate channel are insignificant for the transmission of fiscal policy. In the field of public finances, governmental budgetary policies are among the most controversial and disputed areas of political and scientific controversy. The sustainability of public debt is often analyzed by testing stationarity conditions of government's budget deficits. The fourth chapter shows that this test can be implemented more effectively by means of an asymmetric unit root test. We argue that this approach increases the power of the test and reduces the likelihood of drawing false inferences. We illustrate this in an application to 14 countries of the European Monetary Union as well as in a Monte Carlo simulation. Distinguishing between positive and negative changes in deficits, we find consistency with the intertemporal budget constraint for more countries, i.e. lower persistence of positive changes in some countries, compared to the earlier literature.

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