Background: As the goal of most investors is to generate excess returns as compared tothe broad market, different investment strategies to perform such a feat have been studied thoroughly for decades. One strategy which has performed particularly well is the value investment strategy, where securities that appear cheap relative to some of their fundamental values are invested in. More recently, the growth investment strategy, where securities are instead bought if some of their fundamental values are expected to rise rapidly in the future, has caught more attention from investors. As the efficient market hypothesis suggests that no investment strategy should be able to consistently generate excess returns without any luck involved, it is of interest to examine whether the aforementioned strategies act in congruence with the hypothesis. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze if the value and growth investment strategies generate superior returns as well as risk-adjusted excess returns when compared to the Swedish stock market. The study also aims to analyze how the performance of the strategies varies during periods of different market sentiments. Methodology: This study used a quantitative method in its data collection and was conducted using a deductive approach. Six synthetic portfolios were created to test the strategies’ performance. The stocks which constituted the synthetic portfolios were chosen based on their P/E and P/B values from the Refinitiv Eikon platform, and the portfolios were rebalanced annually over the entire analyzed time period. The Swedish All-Share index, OMXSGI, was used as a proxy for the market portfolio. Conclusion: Based on the results of the study, the growth portfolios, more so than the value portfolios, were found to generate greater statistically significant returns as compared to the broad market during the analyzed time period. Although not all portfolios generated excess returns, the study may still add to the evidence that disproves the efficient market hypothesis.

德國投資大師科斯托蘭尼（Kostolany）曾用主人牽狗散步來形容股價跟基本面的運行關係，主人從甲地到乙地的路徑像是公司的基本面，而狗跟隨著主人的步伐忽前忽後、亦步亦趨就像是股價，兩者之間短期間不一定會同步，但最終必將一致。這個現象說明了股市投資的一個不變的真理：長期而言，股價必將反映公司經營的基本面。作為一個投資人如果無法掌握基本面的走向，而只知道一味的追逐股價的走向，則無異於捨本逐末，緣木求魚了。 從基本面來分析公司的價值，最直接正確的方是就是現金流量折現模型，但這個方法對於如何預估公司未來產生的現金流，及如何採用折現率存在著相當大的歧異。再者，一經估算出公司的內在價值後，要在什麼價格買進是另外一個要面對的問題。葛林布雷（Joel Greenblatt）選擇從另外一個角度切入，他藉著資本報酬率（Capital return）來篩選經營績效傑出的公司，加上盈餘報酬率（Earning Yield）來選出便宜的標的，兩者結合在一起過濾出的組合可充分發揮出價值投資者選股的精神。 本研究應用他所提出的方法，選擇MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan指數做為樣本，實際驗證用這兩個神奇公式所選出的投資組合在2002-2007年的表現，結果得到年化報酬率超過指數表現高達40%的績效。對於一般非專業的投資人，可以利用這個低成本及有效的方式建構一個價值型的投資組合，避免跟隨市場波動而頻繁地交易，達到投資而非投機的目的了。 / Andre Kostolany, Germany guru investor, explains the relationship between stock price and fundamental by an example of a man walking a dog. The master’s route expresses the company’s operation fundamental while the follow-up path of the dog is the stock price movement. Their paths are not sure synchronizing at short period of time but it will be corresponding in the long run. Admittedly, this phenomenon tells us the truth that the stock price finally should reflects the operating result of the company. Therefore, it’s in vain if an investor cannot manage to understand the business development but only chase technical price information. Basically, the discount cash flow, DCF, is the first and foremost method to evaluate the value of the company. However, how to forecast the future cash flow of the business as well as how much the discounting rate be used are still among debatable. Secondly, when to buy the stock is another dilemma after the intrinsic value is calculated. Joel Greenblatt takes the topic from a different angle. He points out those stocks with high capital yield and earning yield that depicting not only superior capital spending but also relatively inexpensive compare to others. In short, his two magic formulas combine major value investor components indeed. This thesis applies his findings to eqiuty portfolio construction in Asia Pacific markets. From 2002 to 2007, the magic 30 basket, composed of 30 constituents with highest capital and earning yield, outperforms the MSCI Asia Pacific ex- Japan benchmark by astonishing 40% p.a. For non-institutional investors, the model is particularly useful in construction a value-oriented portfolio that refrains from frequent transactions in face of market volatility.

Syfte: Undersöka om det är möjligt att generera en överavkastning på aktier gentemot marknadsindex på OMXS Industrials enligt Net Current Asset Value strategin. Metod: Studien baseras på en kvantitativ metod för att undersöka historiska aktievärden. Datan som används i undersökningen hämtas från Thomson Reuters Datastream och de statistiska värdena bearbetas i Microsoft Office Excel Teoretiska utgångspunkter: Studien har sin förklaring med utgångspunkt från teorierna om den effektiva marknadshypotesen och CAPM modellen, samt ett avsnitt som utreder principerna om hur värderingsstrategier bör följas. Resultat: Beroende på längden av innehavsperioden visar studien att det i de samtliga fall är fullt möjligt att överträffa marknadsindex, och att den riskjusterade avkastningen i de flesta fall är högre än marknadsindex. / Objective: To examine whether it is possible to generate an excess return on stocks in relation to the market index of OMXS Industrials according to the strategy of Net Current Asset Value Method: The study is based on a quantitative method to investigate historical stock values. The data used in the study is retrieved from Thomson Reuters Datastream and the statistical values are processed in Microsoft Office Excel. Theoretical usage: The study is explained on the basis of the theory of the efficient market hypothesis and the CAPM model, and even a section that investigates principles of valuation strategies and how they should be followed. Results: Depending on the length of the holding period, the study shows that in all cases it is quite possible to outperform market indices, and risk-adjusted returns in most cases are higher than the market index.

This thesis focuses on indentification of financial analysis indicators of small firms. These indicators should help investors to use growth investing method within their first pick stocks. Discussed indicators are from capital market, rentability, indebtedness and liquidity areas. The resulting values of these indicators are interpreted accordingly to the strategy of the company. That helps to identify the company's strengths and weeknesses. This thesis contains of basic theoretical knowledge of growth investing and specifics of small companies. It also comprises of results of older empirical studies in which growth and value investing was compared. The growth investing methods by Jime Slater. There were used 14 historically significantly above average growing companies registred in NASDAQ for the purpose of analysis.

Submitted by Rodolfo Zeidler (rodolfo.zeidler@gmail.com) on 2014-10-14T12:22:56Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_RodolfoZeidler_MPFE_27.09.2014.pdf: 1031393 bytes, checksum: f0f0d7d38e2df5bf53a35f847db68555 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2014-10-14T12:55:20Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_RodolfoZeidler_MPFE_27.09.2014.pdf: 1031393 bytes, checksum: f0f0d7d38e2df5bf53a35f847db68555 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-14T13:09:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_RodolfoZeidler_MPFE_27.09.2014.pdf: 1031393 bytes, checksum: f0f0d7d38e2df5bf53a35f847db68555 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-10-13 / O objetivo deste trabalho é realizar procedimento de back-test da Magic Formula na Bovespa, reunindo evidências sobre violações da Hipótese do Mercado Eficiente no mercado brasileiro. Desenvolvida por Joel Greenblatt, a Magic Formula é uma metodologia de formação de carteiras que consiste em escolher ações com altos ROICs e Earnings Yields, seguindo a filosofia de Value Investing. Diversas carteiras foram montadas no período de dezembro de 2002 a maio de 2014 utilizando diferentes combinações de número de ativos por carteira e períodos de permanência. Todas as carteiras, independentemente do número de ativos ou período de permanência, apresentaram retornos superiores ao Ibovespa. As diferenças entre os CAGRs das carteiras e o do Ibovespa foram significativas, sendo que a carteira com pior desempenho apresentou CAGR de 27,7% contra 14,1% do Ibovespa. As carteiras também obtiveram resultados positivos após serem ajustadas pelo risco. A pior razão retorno-volatilidade foi de 1,2, comparado a 0,6 do Ibovespa. As carteiras com pior pontuação também apresentaram bons resultados na maioria dos cenários, contrariando as expectativas iniciais e os resultados observados em outros trabalhos. Adicionalmente foram realizadas simulações para diversos períodos de 5 anos com objetivo de analisar a robustez dos resultados. Todas as carteiras apresentaram CAGR maior que o do Ibovespa em todos os períodos simulados, independentemente do número de ativos incluídos ou dos períodos de permanência. Estes resultados indicam ser possível alcançar retornos acima do mercado no Brasil utilizando apenas dados públicos históricos. Esta é uma violação da forma fraca da Hipótese do Mercado Eficiente. / The main purpose of this work is to back-test the Magic Formula in the Bovespa Stock Exchange, gathering evidences of violations of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in the Brazilian market. The Magic Formula was developed by Joel Greenblatt and consists in a methodology for stock picking that creates portfolios of stocks with high ROICs and high Earnings Yield, following the Value Investing philosophy. Many portfolios were created in the period between December 2002 and May 2014 combining different number of assets per portfolio and different holding periods. All the portfolios, independently of their number of assets or holding periods, presented returns higher than Ibovespa. The differences between the CAGR from the portfolios and from the Ibovespa were significant, the worst performance portfolio presenting CAGR of 27,7%, as compared with 14,1% of Ibovespa. The portfolios also held positive results after being adjusted for risk. The worst return-volatility ratio was 1.2, as compared to 0.6 from Ibovespa. The portfolios containing the assets with the lowest scores also presented good results in the majority of the scenarios, contradicting the initial expectations and the results observed in other works. In addition, simulations were performed for various 5-year periods aiming to check if the results were robust. All the portfolios presented higher CAGR than Ibovespa in all the simulated periods, independently of the number of assets included in the portfolio or the holding period. These results indicate that it is possible to reach above-market returns using historical public data in Brazil. This is a violation of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in its weak form.

Submitted by Leonardo Milane (lemilane@santander.com.br) on 2016-02-15T21:54:56Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese - Leonardo Milane - Magic Formula.pdf: 348511 bytes, checksum: 91d8cd74adea7ad467c334e5d332aeb4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2016-02-15T21:55:58Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese - Leonardo Milane - Magic Formula.pdf: 348511 bytes, checksum: 91d8cd74adea7ad467c334e5d332aeb4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-02-16T11:16:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese - Leonardo Milane - Magic Formula.pdf: 348511 bytes, checksum: 91d8cd74adea7ad467c334e5d332aeb4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-04 / The main purpose of this work is to back-test the Magic Formula in the IBX- 100 index, in order to gather evidence of effectiveness of the respective methodology in the selection of the best stocks and portfolios that beat the IBX-100 in the long run. The Magic Formula was developed by Joel Greenblatt and consists in a methodology for stock picking that creates portfolios of stocks with high ROICs and high Earnings Yield, following the Value Investing philosophy. Many portfolios were created in the period between January 2000 and June 2015 combining different number of stocks per portfolio and different holding periods. Some portfolios did beat the market index, while some did not. Portfolios with a higher number of stocks and longer holding periods seem to perform better than portfolio with fewer stocks and shorter holding periods. The portfolio with 10 stocks, holding period of 1 year, showed the highest CAGR among all portfolios (17,77%), surpassing the IBX-100 CAGR of 13,17% in the same period, even risk-adjusting. Regardless the holding period and the number of stocks, all portfolios presented lower systematic risk than the IBX-100 index (all betas were significant and lower than 1). On the other hand, all alphas were low, rarely significant, suggesting that the active portfolio management that follows the Magic Formula criteria did not add substantial higher returns when compared to market returns. / O objetivo desse trabalho é realizar um procedimento de back-test da Magic Formula no IBX-100, a fim de reunir evidencias sobre a eficiência de tal metodologia no processo de seleção das melhores ações e formação de carteiras que superem o desempenho do IBX-100 no longo prazo. Desenvolvida por Joel Greenblatt, a Magic Formula é uma metodologia de formação de carteiras que consiste em escolher ações com altos ROICs e Earnings Yields, seguindo a filosofia de Value Investing. Diversas carteiras foram montadas no período de janeiro de 2000 a junho de 2015 utilizando diferentes combinações de número de ativos por carteira e períodos de permanência. Nem todas as carteiras apresentaram retornos superiores ao índice de mercado. Aparentemente, as carteiras com mais ações e períodos de permanência mais longos apresentam desempenho superior às carteiras menores e com rotatividade maior (períodos de permanência mais curtos). A carteira de 10 ações, com período de permanência de 1 ano, apresentou o maior CAGR dentre todas as outras (17,77%), superando o CAGR de 13,17% do IBX-100 no mesmo período. Esse resultado foi superior mesmo quando ajustado ao risco. Independentemente do período de permanência e número de ações, todas as carteiras apresentaram riscos sistemáticos menores do que o índice IBX-100 (todos os betas foram significativos e menores do que 1). Por outro lado, os alfas das carteiras foram muito baixos e, raramente, significativos, sugerindo que a gestão ativa de acordo com os critérios da Magic Formula não adiciona retornos substancialmente maiores do que o retorno relacionado à variações de mercado.

This thesis examines the performance of portfolios sorted by gross-profit-to-asset (GPA) as a quality investing on the Swedish stock exchange. It constructs long-only portfolios and long-short portfolios sorted by GPA, book-to-market (B/P) and earnings-per-price (E/P). Thus, the thesis includes quality and value investing. The thesis compares separately the constructed long-only and long-short portfolios among each other. The long-only strategies are additionally compared to the market index. The study further examines a combined portfolio, sorting for GPA and B/P in order to test Novy-Marx’s findings. He reports, that the average return improves, while the standard deviation remains at the same level for a combined portfolio sorting for GPA and B/P. This requires a negative correlation. The comparison is based on different portfolio measurements as i.e. s.d. The asset pricing models CAPM and 5-Factor Model are applied. In addition, actual returns, excessive return over the risk-free rate and over the market index as a benchmark are assessed for the portfolio. The analysis is conducted for the time period 1994-2013 and separately for downturns, considering 2000-2003, 2007-2009 and 2010. The results show a great applicability of the gross-profitability ratio on the Swedish market. This quality strategy convinces not only during normal times with the portfolios GPA-h (long-only) and GPA-hl (long-short) but also in stressed times. GPA-h reports positive (abnormal) returns GPA-h during downturns. The long-only and long-short portfolios based on GPA outperform the market in both time periods. GPA-sorted portfolios perform in general better and the two value strategies during normal times and downturns, based on the annual average return. Examining the two value strategies EP-sorted portfolios are superior over BP-sorted portfolios. EP-portfolios achieve better performance during downturns, regarding Jensen’s alpha. It can be derived, that EP is countercyclical. The combined portfolio generates high return and has a high standard deviation. The assessed statement of Novy-Marx cannot be confirmed for the Swedish stock market. It has to be stated that we detected positive correlation instead of negative correlation. It can be derived, that GPA ratio is applicable on the Swedish market, considering the assumptions and limitations of this study. EP-based portfolios show a good performance during downturns. BP- based portfolios do not perform well on the sweidish market in the assessed time frame. The combined portfolio GPABP-hh does increase returns with constant standard deviation, referred to BP-h. Our findings show, that both value strategies do not outperform the market index. The EP-based value portfolios outperform BP-based portfolios. EP-h performs better during downturns considering Jensen’s alpha.

WHAT WAS DONE? This study researches the success of several value investment strategies in the stock markets of the United Kingdom and Germany based on nine firm fundamentals that are extracted from listed firms annual financial statements. In this regard, we first examine alternative forecast combination methods in a novel way to utilise fully the financial information at hand. Second, we examine the drivers of investment returns, particularly the role of information uncertainty, for which a new direct measure is developed. Finally, we evaluate the performance of these financial health investment strategies in alternative institutional environments by focusing on the differences between the two markets regarding both their corporate culture and their legal environment. WHY WAS IT DONE? Similar to economics, the discipline of finance is a social science because its observations emanate from economic transactions between humans. Nevertheless, a significant part of the research in this area is undertaken by means that are almost exclusively applied to the natural sciences, such as mathematics or physics. Although the reasons seem manifold, an increased form of scientificity, in conjunction with greater credibility of the research process and results, is deemed to be of primary importance. However, the benchmark for evaluating these research outcomes differs from those used in the natural sciences. From the example of the efficient market hypothesis one can see that alternative research results that cast serious doubt upon efficiency per se are disregarded as aberrations, leading to the assumption that the hypothesis in its entirety is more or less valid. This study assumes that inefficiencies in the stock market do exist for prolonged periods of time and investors are actually able to benefit from them. HOW WAS IT DONE? Secondary financial statement data of listed companies in the United Kingdom and Germany were downloaded from Datastream for the period between 1992 and 2010. A quantitative analysis of the significance of the correlation between groups of firms with similar financial characteristics and their one-year-ahead stock returns was subsequently performed. Various combination methods for differential weighting of individual financial statement items were conducted. The aim was to increase the profitability of the investment strategy. WHAT WAS FOUND? In general, a classification of stocks according to certain internal criteria of financial health is capable of separating future winners from losers and at the same time confirms the results of a previous US study. More specifically, we first show that a wide range of combination methods generate profitable investment strategies whereby especially measures of profitability are the central indicator of a firm s future performance. Secondly, the more complex methods neither consistently nor substantively outperform the simpler methods. Thirdly, information uncertainty does not seem to be the prime driver of the profitability of an investment strategy. Lastly, we show that financial health investment strategies are profitable both in market-oriented, common law settings and in bank-oriented, code law settings.

Att slå marknaden har varit ett kontroversiellt ämne inom akademin under en väldigt lång tid.Enligt EMH, en grundläggande finansteori, är det inte möjligt att “slå marknaden” under enlång tid utan att ta högre risk. Hedgefond-förvaltaren Joel Greenblatt publicerade år 2006 enformel som ska kunna prestera över marknaden till lägre risk, även långsiktigt, The MagicFormula. Denna studie utvärderar en Magic Formula-portfölj på den svenska marknaden i syfteatt undersöka om den kan generera en abnormal avkastning i perioden år 2000-2020. Dettagenomförs genom en kvantitativ analys. Resultaten visar att Magic Formula-portföljensintercept är signifikant skiljt från 0 i Fama & Frenchs trefaktormodell som inkluderar enmarknads-, storleks- och värdefaktor. Eftersom de riskpremier som testats för inte förklararavkastningen dras slutsatsen att antingen är trefaktormodellen bristfällig, eller så existerar enanomali kopplat till strategin.

Does value investing work on the 21-st century Swedish stock market? We examine the performances of the FScore strategy (Piotroski 2000), the V/P strategy (Frankel and Lee 1998), and a combination of these (Li and Mohanram 2019) on the Swedish stock market between 2000-2020. We find that they produce significant and substantial average raw returns during the period, much above the total return of a comparable market index. However, only the abnormal return of the FScore strategy is statistically significant, even though that of the combined strategy is higher. Based on a very low power of the Fama and French (2015) five-factor model in explaining the returns of the V/P and combined strategies, we argue that the insignificance is most likely due to under-diversification. / Fungerar värdeinvestering på 2000-talets Svenska aktiemarknad? Vi undersöker hur FScore-strategin (Piotroski 2000), V/P-strategin (Frankel och Lee 1998) och en kombination av dessa (Li och Mohanram 2019) har presterat på Svenska aktiemarknaden mellan 2000-2020. Vi finner att de under perioden gett upphov till signifikanta genomsnittliga avkastningar som är klart högre än Stockholmsbörsens totalavkastning. Dock är det endast FScore strategin som ger upphov till signifikant abnormal avkastning, trots att den från den kombinerade strategin är högre. Baserat på att avkastningarna från V/P-och kombinerade strategin knappast kan förklaras av Fama och French (2015) femfaktormodell argumenterar vi för att den statistiska insignifikansen troligtvis härstammar från underdiversifiering.