School districts constantly struggle to find solutions to address the high school dropout problem. Literature supports the need to identify and intervene with these students earlier and in more systemic ways. The purpose of this study was to conduct a longitudinal examination of the relationship between sustained afterschool participation and the host district’s early warning index (EWI) associated with school dropout. Data included 65,341 students participating in an urban school district’s after school program from school years 2000-2001 through 2011-2012. The district serves more than 80,000 students annually. Data represented students in Pre-Kindergarten through Grade 12, and length of participation ranged from 1 through 12 years. Results indicated that student risk increased over time and that persistent participation in afterschool programming had a significant relationship with student individual growth trajectories. Slower growth rates, as evidenced through successive models, supported students being positively impacted by program participation. Additionally, participation was more meaningful if students persisted, as noted in the lower EWI rates, as compared to students who attended less consistently.

Les difficultés rencontrées par les entreprises peuvent prendre des proportions importantes etles conduire vers une cessation d’activité si elles ne sont pas traitées suffisamment tôt.Le législateur marocain, conscient de la nécessité de la sauvegarde des entreprises, s’estinspiré de la loi française du 1er mars 1984, afin de mettre en place un dispositif légalorganisant des procédures de prévention et du règlement amiable.Le principe de la prévention repose en premier lieu sur l’alerte interne et externe, permettantainsi une détection précoce des difficultés. Le but étant de favoriser un dialogue entre lesorganes de contrôle et les dirigeants pour mettre en oeuvre une action concertée.Le règlement amiable, mécanisme contractuel et confidentiel, permet aux dirigeants desentreprises de demander la désignation d’un conciliateur afin de négocier avec leurscréanciers un accord amiable en vue d’optimiser le redressement de leurs entreprises.Néanmoins, les enquêtes réalisées au Maroc ont montré la méconnaissance et le faible usagede ces mécanismes préventifs par les dirigeants d’entreprises, car ils sont inadaptés à leurcontexte économique, social et culturel. A l’exemple des réformes des procédures collectivesentreprises par le législateur français entre 1994 et 2008, une réforme approfondie de la loimarocaine relative à la prévention et au règlement amiable est nécessaire afin de les rendreplus efficaces et accessibles. / The difficulties faced by the companies can lead to important consequences and a potentialdiscontinuance of business if not considered at an early stage.The Moroccan legislator, considering that the saving of the companies is of the essence, hasdrawn his inspiration from the French Law enacted on March 1st 1984 in order to set up in1996 prevention and amicable settlement procedures.The prevention principle first of all relies on internal and external warnings, allowingdifficulties prediction at an early stage. The purpose is to establish a dialogue betweensupervisory committees and corporate management in order to agree on a concerted step.The amicable settlement, which is a contractual and confidential mechanism, grants the rightto corporate managers to appoint a conciliatory to negotiate an amicable settlement with thecreditors in order to optimize the company recovery.Nevertheless, investigations in Morocco have demonstrated that this prevention mechanism iseither unrecognized or weakly used by corporate managers, mainly because this mechanism isnot in line with the economical, social and cultural context. Between 1994 and 2008, theFrench legislator has amended the bankruptcy proceedings which can be considered as anexample. An in-depth reform of Moroccan laws relating to prevention and amicablesettlement procedure is necessary as well for further efficiency and accessibility.

Early warning of slope instability will enable evacuation of vulnerable people and timely repair and maintenance of critical infrastructure. However, currently available warning systems are too expensive for wide-scale use or have technical limitations. The acoustic emission (AE) monitoring approach using active waveguides (i.e. a steel tube with granular backfill surround installed in a borehole through a slope), in conjunction with the Slope ALARMS AE measurement system, has the potential to be an affordable early warning system for slope instability. However, the challenge has been to develop strategies to interpret and quantify deformation behaviour from measured AE. The development of an approach to quantify slope deformation behaviour from measured AE will enable the AE monitoring system to provide early warning of slope instability through detecting, quantifying and communicating accelerations in slope movement. Field monitoring and full-scale physical modelling have been conducted to characterise the AE response from the system to both reactivated slope movements and first-time slope failure. Definitive field evidence has been obtained showing AE monitoring can measure slope movements and generated AE rates are proportional to slope displacement rates, which was confirmed through comparisons with both conventional inclinometer and continuous ShapeAccelArray deformation measurements. A field monitoring case study demonstrated that the AE approach can detect very slow slope movements of 0.075 mm/day. In addition, the concept of retrofitting inclinometer casings with active waveguides to convert the manually read instrument to a real-time monitoring system has been demonstrated using a field trial. Dynamic strain-controlled shear tests on active waveguide physical models demonstrated that AE monitoring can be used to quantify slope displacement rates, continuously and in real-time, with accuracy to within an order of magnitude. Large-scale first-time slope failure experiments allowed the AE response to slope failure to be characterised. AE was detected after shear deformations of less than a millimetre in previously un-sheared material, and AE rates increased proportionally with displacement rates as failure occurred. The AE rate-displacement rate relationship can be approximated as linear up to 100 mm/hour and shear surface deformations less than 10-20 mm. At greater velocities and larger deformations the gradient of the relationship progressively increases and is best represented using a polynomial. This is because complex pressure distributions develop along the active waveguide analogous to a laterally loaded pile, and the confining pressures increase. Variables that influence the AE rate-displacement rate relationship have been quantified using physical model experiments and empirical relationships. A framework has been developed to allow AE rate-displacement rate calibration relationships to be determined for any AE system installation. This provides a universal method that can be used by practitioners when installing AE systems, to calibrate them to deliver alarm statuses/warning levels that are related to slope displacement rates. Use of this framework has been demonstrated using a case study example, and decision making protocols have been suggested that use trends in alarms with time to trigger decisions, which could be to send an engineer to inspect the slope, manage traffic, or evacuate people.

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / Critical Care Outreach Services (CCOSs) recognize early sign of deterioration in medical units, regarding the condition of the patient, by using elements of vital sign tracking namely modified early warning score (MEWS). Nurses as leaders should be proactive by using influence to obtain a desired outcome. It is unclear how nurses experience self-leadership in this outreach service in a private hospital in Pretoria. The purpose of this research was to understand nurses’ experience of their self-leadership in the current CCOS at a private hospital in Pretoria, in order to develop self-leadership strategies that could contributes to the implementation of a CCOS (for the broader population of nurses) in a private hospital group in Gauteng. In this research the steps as outlined in the self-leadership strategic framework of Neck and Milliman (1994) were adapted for this research. The theoretical assumptions furthermore informed the methodological steps followed in the research process. The theoretical assumptions of the Practice Orientated Theory of Dickoff, James and Wiedenbach (1968) were adapted and the survey lists of this theory served as a reasoning map in this research. The central statement of this research was that, nurses need to lead themselves in implementing a CCOS in general wards in a private hospital group in Gauteng.

A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. July 2014. / South Africa’s climate is highly variable, implying that the national agricultural sector should make provision to have early warning services in place in order to reduce the risks of disasters. More than 70% of natural disasters worldwide are caused by weather and climate or weather and climate related hazards. Reliable Seasonal Climate Forecasting (SCF) for South Africa would have the potential to be of great benefit to users in addressing disaster risk reduction. A disaster is a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society, causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses, which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope when using their own resources. The negative impacts on agricultural production in South Africa due to natural disasters including disasters due to increasing climate variability and climate change are critical to the sector. The hypothesis assumed in the study is the improved early warning service and better SCF dissemination lead to more effective and better decision making for subsequent disaster risk reduction in the agricultural sector. The most important aspect of knowledge management in early warning operations is that of distributing the most useful service to the target group that needs it at the right time. This will not only ensure maximum performance of the entity responsible for issuing the early warnings, but will also ensure the maximum benefit to the target group. South Africa is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters that are afflicted by localised incidents of seasonal droughts, floods and flash floods that have devastating impacts on agriculture and food security. Such disasters might affect agricultural production decisions, as well as agricultural productivity. Planting dates and plant selection are decisions that depend on reliable and accurate meteorological and climatological knowledge and services for agriculture. Early warning services that could be used to facilitate informed decision making includes advisories on iv future soil moisture conditions in order to determine estimated planting times, on future grazing capacity, on future water availability and on forecasts of the following season’s weather and climate, whenever that is possible. The involvement of government structures, obviously, is also critical in immediate responses and long term interventions. The importance of creating awareness, of offering training workshops on climate knowledge and SCF, and of creating effective early warning services dissemination channels is realized by government. This is essential in order to put effective early warning services in place as a disaster-risk coping tool. Early warning services, however, can only be successful if the end-users are aware of what early warning systems, structures and technologies are in place, and if they are willing that those issuing the early warning services become involved in the decision-making process. Integrated disaster-risk reduction initiatives in government programmes, effective dissemination structures, natural resource-management projects and communityparticipation programmes are only a few examples of actions that will contribute to the development of effective early warning services, and the subsequent response to and adoption of the advices/services strategies by the people most affected. The effective distribution of the most useful early warning services to the end-user, who needs it at the right time through the best governing structures, may significantly improve decision making in the agricultural, food security and other water-sensitive sectors. Developed disaster-risk policies for extension and farmers as well as other disaster prone sectors should encourage self-reliance and the sustainable use of natural resources, and will reduce the need for government intervention. The SCF producers (e.g. the South African Weather Service (SAWS)) have issued new knowledge to intermediaries for some years now, and it is important to determine whether this knowledge has been used in services, and if so whether these services were applied effectively in coping with disaster-risks and in disaster v reduction initiatives and programmes. This study for that reason also intends to do an evaluation of the knowledge communication processes between forecasters, and intermediaries at national and provincial government levels. It therefore, aims to assess and evaluate the current knowledge communication structures within the national agricultural sector, seeking to improve disaster-risk reduction through effective early warning services. A boundary organisation is an organization which crosses the boundary between science, politics and end-users as they draw on the interests and knowledge of agencies on both sides to facilitate evidence base and socially beneficial policies and programmes. Reducing uncertainty in SCF is potentially of enormous economic value especially to the rural communities. The potential for climate science to deliver reduction in total SCF uncertainty is associated entirely with the contributions from internal variability and model uncertainty. The understanding of the limitations of the SCFs as a result of uncertainties is very important for decision making and to end-users during planning. Disappointing, however, is that several studies have shown a fairly narrow group of potential users actually receive SCFs, with an even a smaller number that makes use of these forecasts In meeting the objectives of the study the methodology to be followed is based on knowledge communication. For that reason two types of questionnaires were drafted. Open and closed questionnaires comprehensively review the knowledge, understanding, interpretation of SCFs and in early warning services distribution channels. These questionnaires were administered among the SCF producers and intermediaries and results analysed. Lastly the availability of useful SCFs knowledge has important implications for agricultural production and food security. Reliable and accurate climate service, as one of the elements of early warning services, will be discussed since they may be used to improve agricultural practices such as crop diversification, time of planting vi and changes in cultivation practices. It was clear from the conclusions of the study that critical elements of early warning services need to receive focused attention such as the SCF knowledge feedback programme should be improved by both seasonal climate producers and intermediaries, together with established structures through which reliable, accurate and timely early warning services can be disseminated. Also the relevant dissemination channels of SCFs are critical to the success of effective implementation of early warning services including the educating and training of farming communities. The boundary organisation and early warning structures are important in effective implementation of risk reduction measures within the agricultural sector and thus need to be prioritised. Enhancing the understandability and interpretability of SCF knowledge by intermediaries will assist in improving action needed to respond to SCFs. Multiple media used by both SCF producers and intermediaries in disseminating of SCFs should be accessible by all users and end-users. The Government should ensure that farming communities are educated, trained and well equipped to respond to risks from natural hazards.

Freqüentemente, a população das áreas metropolitanas é surpreendida pela ocorrência de inundações muito rápidas que causam danos diversos. O sistema de alerta antecipado contra inundações é uma ferramenta que visa minimizar tais impactos. O componente de previsão do sistema será abordado neste trabalho. Tal previsão é feita através de um modelo conceitual de previsão hidrometeorológica de precipitação baseado em equações termodinâmicas e modelo simplificado de física das nuvens seguido de um modelo chuva-vazão. A antecedência proporcionada pelo modelo hidrometeorológico aplicado é de 30 minutos para variáveis de entrada observadas. Este tempo pode ser estendido com a inclusão de estimativas futuras das variáveis de entrada. A calibração do modelo foi feita manualmente com o uso de duas medidas de desempenho, esta etapa pode ser aprimorada em pesquisas futuras. Apesar da simplicidade do modelo hidrometeorológico apresentou-se satisfatório em algumas simulações, conseguindo prever o início das precipitações. / Urban population are often surprised by flash floods which cause several kinds of damages. An early warning system is a tool which aims to minimize such impacts. This work will approach the forecast component of this system. A conceptual hydrometeorological precipitation forecasting model, based on thermodynamics equations and simplified cloud physics, will be used to perform the forecast. Model lead time is 30 minutes for measured inputs, this time can be extended by the use of estimated inputs instead of the measured ones. Calibration was performed manually based on conservation of precipitation volume and its distribution in time. This step can be improved on future researches. In spite of model’s simplicity, some simulations presented satisfactory results, being able to forecast precipitation’s beginning.

Cette thèse a permis la mise en place d’un système d’alerte précoce des épidémies de paludisme basé sur le système de surveillance sentinelle proposant différents seuils épidémiques et un modèle de prédiction. Les données collectées quotidiennement par SMS sont automatiquement stockées sur un serveur dédié. Concomitamment, le système acquiert systématiquement et de manière automatique des données satellitaires météorologiques sur chaque site sentinelle en lien avec les changements de prévalence du paludisme, tels que la température, les précipitations et l'indice de végétation (eng. NDVI). Une base de données des interventions contre le paludisme a également été créée. Ce système a déjà démontré sa capacité à détecter une épidémie de paludisme dans le sud-est du pays en 2014. Deuxièmement, nous avons réalisé une étude pour évaluer la relation entre la durée de l'efficacité de la campagne de masse des moustiquaires imprégnées d'insecticide à effet longue durée (MILD) et les épidémies de paludisme identifiées à Madagascar de 2009 à 2015 par le système de surveillance sentinelle. Cette étude a montré que la différence entre l'efficacité théorique et l’efficacité réelle peut entraîner des lacunes dans la couverture des services pendant les années suivantes, contribuant au rebond du paludisme et souligne la nécessité de mise en place de mécanisme de distribution continue de moustiquaires. Ce travail vise à maximiser l'utilité d'un système de surveillance sentinelle dans des milieux à ressources limitées, guider les changements dans l'orientation des programmes de lutte et fournir des exemples pratiques pour son utilisation dans d'autres systèmes ou contextes. / We describe a Malaria Early Warning System (MEWS) using various epidemic thresholds and a forecasting component with the support of recent technologies to improve the performance of a sentinel MEWS. Malaria-related data from sentinel sites collected by Short Message Service are automatically stored in a database hosted on a server at Institut Pasteur de Madagascar. Concomitantly our system routinely and automatically acquires site specific satellite weather data related to changes in malaria prevalence such as temperature, rainfall and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). A Malaria Control Intervention data base has also been. This system has already demonstrated its ability to detect a malaria outbreak in southeastern part of Madagascar in 2014. In a second time, we conducted a study to assess the relationship between the effectiveness of mass campaign of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) over time and malaria outbreaks identified in Madagascar from 2009 to 2015 through the Sentinel surveillance system. This study showed that the difference between efficacy and effectiveness may result in gaps in service coverage during the subsequent years contributing to malaria rebound well before the replacement of the LLINs and highlights the need of continuous distribution mechanism of LLINs.This work aims to maximize the usefulness of a sentinel surveillance system to predict and detect epidemics in limited-resource environments, to guide any changes in the orientation of malaria control programs and to provide practical examples and suggestions for use in other systems or settings.

Sweden is a multicultural society which means that there is a lot of pupils in Swedish schools with a background as refugees and with experiences from potentially traumatic and horrible events in their home countries. This study works with two different theories, trigger warning and pragmatism. Trigger warning explains why it could be necessary to hide or protect student from some specific topics or material and pragmatism says that it is educationally successful to use the pupils experiences in the classroom. Contemporary global conflicts, such as the ones that the pupils are coming from, could be a useful subject to teach about in social studies according to the Swedish curriculum. Given this circumstances, this study seeks to examine if it would be educationally and morally appropriate to use this potentially traumatic and sensitive experiences as a method of teaching. According to pragmatism, it would be. However, according to trigger warning, it could be relevant to protect the pupils from this kinds of subjects in school and in the classroom. Therefore, this study contains a tug of war between the two different theories and I interviewed pupils who has moved or has a family who has moved from warzones as refugees about this matter. A core in this study is to take the pupils perspective and examine what good, or bad, that comes out if a teacher in social studies wants to teach about the conflicts that the pupils has a connection to. The result shows that it in fact would be educationally successful even if these subjects are special and a teacher should always think about the circumstances and the methods they are using. In the theoretical tug of war pragmatism comes out as a winner, by trigger warnings could be relevant in some cases.

The study aims to empirically study the Early warning system and how national parliaments in the EU vary regarding the issuing of reasoned opinions. In recent years the subject of subsidiarity within the EU has become an increasingly debated and controversial topic. The Early warning system aims to alleviate the democratic deficiency of the EU, but the scientific community is divided on how efficient it is. Using data from the European parliament this study examines reasoned opinions and factors that influences why national parliaments issue them and why there is such a variation amongst the national parliaments issuing them. The study finds that being a member of the Eurozone and the EU15 has important implications for parliaments issuing reasoned opinions.

Vi har undersökt hur Scandinavian Airlines Systems (SAS) årsredovisningar kanstuderas utifrån ord respektive siffror och vilket av de två som ger bäst informationför en extern intressent. Vidare har vi studerat hur väl redovisningen överrensstämmermed företagets situation. I studien har nyckeltal och analysmetoden Content analysisanvänts för att studera siffror i årsredovisningen, medans stycket ”VD har ordet” stårtill grund för analysen av text. Vårt syfte med uppsatsen är att bidra med kunskap omhur årsredovisningar kan användas av externa intressenter, det vill säga hurårsredovisningar kan belysa ett företags situation utifrån olika perspektiv.Studien bygger på både en kvalitativ och en kvantitativ metod på grund av uppsatsensuppdelning mellan att studera siffror samt tolka text. Vidare har en abduktiv processanvänts, det vill säga att teori och empiri har skapats i växelverkan. Endastsekundärdata har använts då vi har studerat SAS årsredovisningar mellan år 1992 tillår 2008.Vi har i studien kommit fram till att det bästa sättet för en extern intressent att förståett företags situation är att utföra en analys som kombinerar flera olika metoder, därnyckeltal och nyckelord fungerar som indikatorer medans tolkning av text ger endjupare förståelse för företaget. Vi har även funnit att redovisningen inte alltidstämmer överrens med företagets situation. Detta beror på att siffror endast gerindikationer på problem men inte visar orsakerna till dessa. Ytterligare är en text oftasubjektiv och beror även på läsarens tolkningsförmåga av den, vilket gör det svårareatt få en korrekt bild av företagets situation.