Vi har undersökt hur Scandinavian Airlines Systems (SAS) årsredovisningar kanstuderas utifrån ord respektive siffror och vilket av de två som ger bäst informationför en extern intressent. Vidare har vi studerat hur väl redovisningen överrensstämmermed företagets situation. I studien har nyckeltal och analysmetoden Content analysisanvänts för att studera siffror i årsredovisningen, medans stycket ”VD har ordet” stårtill grund för analysen av text. Vårt syfte med uppsatsen är att bidra med kunskap omhur årsredovisningar kan användas av externa intressenter, det vill säga hurårsredovisningar kan belysa ett företags situation utifrån olika perspektiv.Studien bygger på både en kvalitativ och en kvantitativ metod på grund av uppsatsensuppdelning mellan att studera siffror samt tolka text. Vidare har en abduktiv processanvänts, det vill säga att teori och empiri har skapats i växelverkan. Endastsekundärdata har använts då vi har studerat SAS årsredovisningar mellan år 1992 tillår 2008.Vi har i studien kommit fram till att det bästa sättet för en extern intressent att förståett företags situation är att utföra en analys som kombinerar flera olika metoder, därnyckeltal och nyckelord fungerar som indikatorer medans tolkning av text ger endjupare förståelse för företaget. Vi har även funnit att redovisningen inte alltidstämmer överrens med företagets situation. Detta beror på att siffror endast gerindikationer på problem men inte visar orsakerna till dessa. Ytterligare är en text oftasubjektiv och beror även på läsarens tolkningsförmåga av den, vilket gör det svårareatt få en korrekt bild av företagets situation.

Colletotrichum gossypii var. cephalosporioides, fungo causador da ramulose do algodoerio, é ocorre disperso em quase todo Brasil. Sem um eficiente esquema de aplicação de fungicidas, a ramulose pode provocar severos danos. Outra importante doença para o algodoeiro, em muitas regiões do mundo, é a mancha angular, causada por Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. malvacearum. O objetivo deste trabalho foi desenvolver um índice de favorabilidade baseado em variáveis meteorológicas para estimar a ocorrência da ramulose e da mancha angular (MA) do algodoeiro. O período de incubação, a freqüência de infecção e a severidade das doenças foram avaliados em câmaras de crescimento mantidas a 15, 20, 25 e 30&#176;C e com períodos de câmara úmida de 0, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, e 64 horas após inoculação com suspensão inóculo de 105 conídios mL-1 e 106 IFC mL-1. Severidade da doença. Severidade (MA) e número de lesões por área (Ramulose) foram modelados como função da duração do período de molhamento (DPM) e da temperatura (T). Em experimentos de campo em Piracicaba, SP, parcelas de algodão foram inoculadas com ramulose e mancha angular, separadamente, a fim de se avaliar semanalmente o progresso das doenças ao longo do tempo. Os dados de temperatura do ar e molhamento foliar no campo foram utilizados no modelo obtido com os resultados de câmaras de crescimento e assim calcular o índice de favorabilidade. As variáveis meteorológicas radiação solar, T, umidade relativa do ar, DPM, chuva e velocidade do vento foram avaliadas como possíveis variáveis explanatórias às taxas de crescimento da doença no campo. Testou-se também, como variável explanatória, o índice de favorabilidade (0,0<IF<1,0), calculado com os modelos de superfície utilizando os dados de T e DPM, obtidos dos experimentos de campo. Em câmaras de crescimento, a temperatura ótima foi de 27&#176;C para ramulose e 22&#176;C para mancha angular, com período de incubação de 10 dias para ramulose e entre 5 e 6 dias para mancha angular. A máxima severidade de ramulose ocorreu entre 25 e 30&#176;C e a máxima severidade de ALS ocorreu entre 20 e 25&#176;C. A severidade de ambas diminui rapidamente em temperaturas maiores ou menores que nessa faixa. A severidade de ramulose aumentou no intervalo de 4 até 32 horas de molhamento enquanto que ocorreu o mesmo com ALS no intervalo de 0 a 8 horas de molhamento. A severidade de ambas foi melhor ajustada por um modelo exponencial logarítmico em função do molhamento que, pela substituição dos parâmetros por funções de temperatura, descreveu a superfície de resposta com elevada precisão e exatidão. No campo, a taxa de crescimento da ramulose foi melhor relacionada ao índice de favorabilidade e à chuva, por regressão não linear, com coeficientes de determinação de 0,89 e 0,91, respectivamente. A taxa de crescimento da mancha angular apresentou razoável relação linear com as variáveis temperatura durante o período de molhamento e vento máximo, com R2 de 0,75 e 0,84 respectivamente. / Colletotrichum gossypii var. cephalosporioides, the fungus that causes ramulosis in cotton crops, is widespread in Brazil. Without an efficient fungicide schedule, ramulosis disease could provoke severe yield losses on cotton. Other important disease to cotton crop in several regions of the world is the bacterial blight also known as angular leaf spot (ALS), caused by Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. malvacearum. The objective of this work was develop a weather based favorability index to each of this diseases. The incubation period, the infection frequency and the severity of both diseases were evaluated in growth-chamber experiments, incubated at 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35&#176;C while exposed to wetness periods of 0, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 and 64 h after inoculation with 105 conidium mL-1 and 106 CFU mL-1. Disease severity (ALS) and number of lesions per leaf area (ramulosis), was modeled as a function of leaf wetness duration (LWD) and temperature (T). At the field experiments in Piracicaba, cotton plots were inoculated with both pathogens separately, and disease severity was evaluated weekly. LWD and T data from the field trials were used as input to the model from growth chambers results and output the disease favorability index. Weather variables as solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, wetness duration, rain, and wind speed were also evaluated as possible explanatory variables to the disease growth rate in the field. Was also tested the favorability index (0.0<FI<1.0), as explanatory variable, calculated with the surface models using T and LWD from the field. In growth chambers, the optimum temperature for ramulosis was 27&#176;C and 22&#176;C for ALS and incubation of 10 days to ramulosis and 5 to 6 days do ALS. Maximum ramulosis severity occurred from 20 to 30&#176; C, and between 20 and 25&#176;C to bacterial blight, and both decreased sharply at warmer or cooler temperatures. Ramulosis severity increased as wetness periods were increased from 4 to 32 h. Bacterial blight severity increased from 0 to 8 h of wetness period. The severity of both diseases, were best fitted by a logarithmic exponential model as function of LWD which, by the substitution of parameters for temperature functions, described the surface response with high precision and accuracy, even being a very flexible model. In the field, ramulosis growth rate was strongly correlated with values of the disease favorability index and rainfall with R2=0.89 and R2=0.91, respectively. Bacterial blight growth rate had best linear correlation to temperature during the wetness period and maximum wind with R2=0.75 and R2=0.84, respectively.

Deer-vehicle collisions in the United States (US) have increased dramatically over the last 50 years. Over one million deer-vehicle collisions are estimated to occur throughout the nation annually. These collisions result in hundreds of human deaths, thousands of human injuries, and billions of dollars in motor vehicle damage and health care costs. The increase in deer-vehicle collisions is partly the result of a growing deer population, caused largely by human manipulation of natural ecosystems. Awareness of the hazard deer pose is essential for drivers. Deer represent a dynamic, spatial and temporal hazard. Driver knowledge about deer at any time is critical for hazard awareness. State driver licensing agencies and state departments of transportation are the primary sources of information regarding driving hazards for most drivers. Through driver manuals, driver licensing agencies advise new drivers of hazards and provide strategies for dealing effectively with the hazards. Using nationally standardized warning signs, state departments of transportation advise drivers of potential hazards found along state highway systems. The first extensive nation-wide historical retrospective of the state driver manuals was conducted. The study assessed how new drivers have been informed of the hazard deer pose as this hazard has evolved. The assessment shows, although generally increasing in content, the information provided by state driver licensing agencies has been inconsistent from decade to decade, and from state to state. This inconsistency has left potentially millions of US drivers without fundamental knowledge of the growing deer hazard and/or strategies for dealing with the hazard. Recommendations and an exemplar for improving driver manuals are provided. The first historical retrospective of the standardized warning signs used by state departments of transportation was conducted to assess the effectiveness of these signs for advising drivers of deer hazards. The assessment shows standard deer warning signs used by state departments of transportation provide little temporal information for drivers. The paradigm shifting, risk matrix-based, colour-coded, Wildlife Hazard Rating System® (WildHAZ®) was developed to augment and transform conventional standard static deer warning signs into variable message signs that provide drivers with more consistent and comprehensive warnings about the deer hazard. The results of a web-based questionnaire survey regarding the WildHAZ® system demonstrated the majority of drivers who responded to the survey understand the system and would respond in a manner that should reduce their potential for a wildlife-related motor vehicle collision and/or the potential severity of such a collision. The majority of the survey respondents indicated that they would prefer a system like WildHAZ® to be used on roads and highways. Simulations of the effect of the WildHAZ® system on mean vehicle speeds were conducted. The results of the simulations suggest WildHAZ® system augmented deer warning signs could lead to fewer and less severe deer-vehicle collisions, if mean vehicle speeds were reduced at high risk periods. The risk matrix-based, colour-coded concept incorporated in the WildHAZ® system may have the potential to warn drivers of other spatially and temporally dynamic hazards. / Graduate / 0366 0709 0478 / lookforhelp@shaw.ca

Les organismes unicellulaires photosynthétiques formant le phytoplancton sont la base de la production primaire marine. Ne pouvant pas réguler leur température ce facteur physique contraint fortement leur croissance. L'étude de son impact est d'une actualité brûlante dans un contexte de changement climatique. Dans cette thèse, nous nous sommes efforcés de comprendre comment le phytoplancton s'acclimate à la température. En analysant la réponse du taux de croissance à la température de centaines d'espèces nous avons mis en évidence les liens existant entre températures cardinales ainsi que leurs fondements thermodynamiques grâce au modèle mécaniste de Hinshelwood. Nous avons testé l'hypothèse de Eppley plus chaud implique plus rapide pour 5 groupes phylogénétiques de phytoplancton et défini leurs limites évolutives intrinsèques. Nous avons examiné les mécanismes d'adaptation induits à long terme par des variations de température et construit un modèle évolutif en utilisant la théorie de la dynamique adaptative afin de prévoir l'issue évolutive de l'adaptation d’une espèce à un cycle de température simple. Nos résultats ont été confrontés à une expérience de sélection réalisée en laboratoire sur Tisochrysis lutea. Notre méthode a été étendue pour prédire l'adaptation d'une souche soumise à un profil de température périodique et étudier l'adaptation thermique du phytoplancton à l'échelle de l'océan mondial. Des données in situ de température de surface de l'océan ont permis de forcer le modèle et de montrer qu'une augmentation de température sera critique pour certains groupes dans les zones où l’amplitude thermique annuelle est grande, comme par exemple la mer Méditerranée. / Unicellular photosynthetic organisms forming the phytoplankton are the basis of primary production. Because these organisms cannot regulate their inner temperature, the medium temperature strongly constrains their growth. Understanding the impact of this factor is topical in a global change context. In this PhD thesis we have investigated how phytoplankton adapts to temperature. By analyzing the growth rate as a function of temperature for hundreds of species we highlighted the characteristics that can be accurately described by a mathematical model. We have identied the links between the cardinal temperatures as well as their thermodynamical fundament using the mechanistic Hinshelwood model. We then challenged the Eppley hypothesis `hotter is faster' for 5 phylogenetic phytoplankton groups and determined the evolutionary limits for each of them. We have also studied the adaptation mechanisms associated to long term temperature variations by developing an evolutionary model using the adaptive dynamics theory allowing to predict the evolutionary outcome of species adaptation to a simple temperature cycle. Our results have been compared to a selection experiment carried out in a controlled device on Tisochrysis lutea. Our method has been extended to predict the adaptation of a strain to periodic temperature profiles and study phytoplankton adaptation at the global ocean scale. In situ data of sea surface temperature have been used as a forcing variable and have permitted to show that the elevation of temperature will be critical for several species in particular for those living in areas where the annual temperature fluctuation is high such as the Mediterranean Sea.

Colletotrichum gossypii var. cephalosporioides, fungo causador da ramulose do algodoerio, é ocorre disperso em quase todo Brasil. Sem um eficiente esquema de aplicação de fungicidas, a ramulose pode provocar severos danos. Outra importante doença para o algodoeiro, em muitas regiões do mundo, é a mancha angular, causada por Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. malvacearum. O objetivo deste trabalho foi desenvolver um índice de favorabilidade baseado em variáveis meteorológicas para estimar a ocorrência da ramulose e da mancha angular (MA) do algodoeiro. O período de incubação, a freqüência de infecção e a severidade das doenças foram avaliados em câmaras de crescimento mantidas a 15, 20, 25 e 30&#176;C e com períodos de câmara úmida de 0, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, e 64 horas após inoculação com suspensão inóculo de 105 conídios mL-1 e 106 IFC mL-1. Severidade da doença. Severidade (MA) e número de lesões por área (Ramulose) foram modelados como função da duração do período de molhamento (DPM) e da temperatura (T). Em experimentos de campo em Piracicaba, SP, parcelas de algodão foram inoculadas com ramulose e mancha angular, separadamente, a fim de se avaliar semanalmente o progresso das doenças ao longo do tempo. Os dados de temperatura do ar e molhamento foliar no campo foram utilizados no modelo obtido com os resultados de câmaras de crescimento e assim calcular o índice de favorabilidade. As variáveis meteorológicas radiação solar, T, umidade relativa do ar, DPM, chuva e velocidade do vento foram avaliadas como possíveis variáveis explanatórias às taxas de crescimento da doença no campo. Testou-se também, como variável explanatória, o índice de favorabilidade (0,0<IF<1,0), calculado com os modelos de superfície utilizando os dados de T e DPM, obtidos dos experimentos de campo. Em câmaras de crescimento, a temperatura ótima foi de 27&#176;C para ramulose e 22&#176;C para mancha angular, com período de incubação de 10 dias para ramulose e entre 5 e 6 dias para mancha angular. A máxima severidade de ramulose ocorreu entre 25 e 30&#176;C e a máxima severidade de ALS ocorreu entre 20 e 25&#176;C. A severidade de ambas diminui rapidamente em temperaturas maiores ou menores que nessa faixa. A severidade de ramulose aumentou no intervalo de 4 até 32 horas de molhamento enquanto que ocorreu o mesmo com ALS no intervalo de 0 a 8 horas de molhamento. A severidade de ambas foi melhor ajustada por um modelo exponencial logarítmico em função do molhamento que, pela substituição dos parâmetros por funções de temperatura, descreveu a superfície de resposta com elevada precisão e exatidão. No campo, a taxa de crescimento da ramulose foi melhor relacionada ao índice de favorabilidade e à chuva, por regressão não linear, com coeficientes de determinação de 0,89 e 0,91, respectivamente. A taxa de crescimento da mancha angular apresentou razoável relação linear com as variáveis temperatura durante o período de molhamento e vento máximo, com R2 de 0,75 e 0,84 respectivamente. / Colletotrichum gossypii var. cephalosporioides, the fungus that causes ramulosis in cotton crops, is widespread in Brazil. Without an efficient fungicide schedule, ramulosis disease could provoke severe yield losses on cotton. Other important disease to cotton crop in several regions of the world is the bacterial blight also known as angular leaf spot (ALS), caused by Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. malvacearum. The objective of this work was develop a weather based favorability index to each of this diseases. The incubation period, the infection frequency and the severity of both diseases were evaluated in growth-chamber experiments, incubated at 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35&#176;C while exposed to wetness periods of 0, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 and 64 h after inoculation with 105 conidium mL-1 and 106 CFU mL-1. Disease severity (ALS) and number of lesions per leaf area (ramulosis), was modeled as a function of leaf wetness duration (LWD) and temperature (T). At the field experiments in Piracicaba, cotton plots were inoculated with both pathogens separately, and disease severity was evaluated weekly. LWD and T data from the field trials were used as input to the model from growth chambers results and output the disease favorability index. Weather variables as solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, wetness duration, rain, and wind speed were also evaluated as possible explanatory variables to the disease growth rate in the field. Was also tested the favorability index (0.0<FI<1.0), as explanatory variable, calculated with the surface models using T and LWD from the field. In growth chambers, the optimum temperature for ramulosis was 27&#176;C and 22&#176;C for ALS and incubation of 10 days to ramulosis and 5 to 6 days do ALS. Maximum ramulosis severity occurred from 20 to 30&#176; C, and between 20 and 25&#176;C to bacterial blight, and both decreased sharply at warmer or cooler temperatures. Ramulosis severity increased as wetness periods were increased from 4 to 32 h. Bacterial blight severity increased from 0 to 8 h of wetness period. The severity of both diseases, were best fitted by a logarithmic exponential model as function of LWD which, by the substitution of parameters for temperature functions, described the surface response with high precision and accuracy, even being a very flexible model. In the field, ramulosis growth rate was strongly correlated with values of the disease favorability index and rainfall with R2=0.89 and R2=0.91, respectively. Bacterial blight growth rate had best linear correlation to temperature during the wetness period and maximum wind with R2=0.75 and R2=0.84, respectively.

Universidade Federal do Cearà / Desde o ano de 2000 que as cooperativas de crÃdito brasileiras tÃm experimentado um crescimento contÃnuo no nÃmero de novas unidades. De outro modo os bancos brasileiros tem diminuÃdo em quantidade pelo processo de aquisiÃÃo e concentraÃÃo. Este crescimento das cooperativas pode estar associado com um maior risco para os associados. Este trabalho investiga as causas de falÃncias das cooperativas de crÃdito dos profissionais de saÃde no Brasil. Para tanto busca fornecer um modelo de alerta precoce que informe aos gestores e supervisores do risco de insolvÃncia, fazendo uso de uma anÃlise de regressÃo logÃstica de Ãndices financeiros. Foi estimado um modelo de prediÃÃo de insolvÃncia que fosse parcimonioso e acurado. Este trabalho provà informaÃÃes adicionais a outros estudos brasileiros sobre falÃncia em cooperativas de crÃdito, de trÃs modos: à um estudo de abrangÃncia nacional, trata com cooperativa de crÃdito mÃtuo urbano, usa uma moderna tÃcnica estatÃstica com dados em painel, o que permite capturar as diferenÃas entre as cooperativas. O presente estudo tambÃm fornece uma maneira racional para a escolha do cut-off. Os resultados sugerem que provisÃo para emprÃstimo em atraso para total do ativo, Total de emprÃstimo para Total de ativo, Total de emprÃstimo para Total de depÃsitos e PatrimÃnio LÃquido Passivo total, sÃo os preditores mais significativos da insolvÃncias das cooperativas. De modo contrÃrio as Despesas Operacionais para Receitas Operacionais e Despesas Operacionais para ativo total nÃo indicam ser significativas em prever a insolvÃncia. / Since the year of 2000 Brazilians credit cooperatives has experienced a increasing growth in number of units. On the other hand Brazilians banks decreased their number, by the process of acquisition and concentration. This growth may imply increasing risk for the associates. This paper empirically investigates the causes of failures of credit cooperatives of heath professionals in Brazil. A goal of this paper is provide a early warning model that inform managers and supervisors of a risks of default, by using logistic regression analysis of financial ratios. It was estimate a default prediction model that was parsimonious and accurate. This work provided additional information over other Brazilian studies of credit cooperatives failure by three ways: it is a national wide study, deals with urban mutual credit cooperative, uses modern statistic technique panel data which can capture the differences across cooperatives. It also provided a reasonable for the choosing of cut-off. The results suggest that provision for bad debts over total assets, total loans over total assets, total loans over total deposits are the most significant predictors of credit cooperative failure. Operational expenses over operational incomes and operational expenses over total assets, contrary, do not seem to be significant indicators of failure

Submitted by Rosivalda Pereira (mrs.pereira@ufma.br) on 2017-06-23T17:58:25Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TatianaNunes.pdf: 8766896 bytes, checksum: c16c78f73bb5300e7ed52a176825b891 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-23T17:58:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TatianaNunes.pdf: 8766896 bytes, checksum: c16c78f73bb5300e7ed52a176825b891 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-05-31 / This thesis aims to analyze the information contained in 0-7 years old children’s clothing labels found in large shopping centers from São Luís - MA. It took into account the understanding of the information and graphic symbols presented on the labels by the indirect consumers of children's clothing products, based on the ABNT standards (NBR 16365: 2015), related to the security of children's clothing – fixed cords specifications and adjustable cords on children's clothing and haberdashery in general - physical risks. This research is characterized by an applied nature, with a qualitative approach and descriptive purpose, being divided into three phases. In phase 1, there was a survey of labels in large shopping centers in São Luís. In phase 2, the informational content and graphic symbols of the labels were analyzed, considering the variables of NBR 16365:2015 and ISO 3758:2013 for textiles, which specifies care codes using symbols, in addition to analysis based on the warning variables presented by Wogalter, Desaulniers and Godfrey (1985). In phase 3, questionnaires were administered among indirect consumers to check their behavior on the information found on the labels. From the results found it is possible to affirm that among the analyzed labels, in general, the information was not presented according to NBR 16365:2015 and it was not detected information related to the variables of Wogalter, Desaulniers and Godfrey (1985). Regarding to the ISO 3758:2013, only a small portion of the labels was in accordance with its recommendations. It is noteworthy that the indirect consumers of infant clothing are unaware of the NBR 16365:2015, which consequently can expose children to potential risks during the use of clothes. It was noted, also, that from the little understanding of the information contained in children's clothing labels, the indirect consumer recognizes the importance and the need for information regarding security on labels affixed to clothing. / A presente dissertação tem como objetivo analisar as informações das etiquetas de roupas infantis de 0 a 7 anos de idade encontradas nos grandes centros comerciais de São Luís – MA. Levou-se em consideração o entendimento dessas informações e dos símbolos gráficos contidos nas etiquetas por parte dos consumidores indiretos dos produtos de vestuário infantil, a partir da Norma da ABNT (NBR 16365:2015) referente à Segurança de roupas infantis - Especificações de cordões fixos e cordões ajustáveis em roupas infantis e aviamentos em geral - Riscos físicos. A pesquisa é caracterizada como de natureza aplicada, com abordagem qualitativa e de finalidade descritiva, sendo dividida em três fases, onde fez-se um levantamento das etiquetas nos grandes centros comerciais de São Luís para posterior análise dos conteúdos informacionais e símbolos gráficos, considerando as variáveis das NBR 16365:2015 e a NBR ISO 3758:2013 para têxteis, além da análise com base nas variáveis de advertências apresentadas por Wogalter, Desaulniers e Godfrey (1985). Foram ainda aplicados questionários junto aos consumidores indiretos para verificar o seu comportamento sobre as informações encontradas nas etiquetas. A partir dos resultados encontrados foi possível afirmar que, de maneira geral, nas etiquetas analisadas não foram encontradas informações de acordo com a NBR 16365:2015, como também não foram detectadas informações referentes as variáveis de Wogalter, Desaulniers e Godfrey (1985). Quanto a ISO 3758:2013, apenas uma pequena parcela das etiquetas esteve em conformidade. Ressalta-se que o consumidor indireto de roupa infantil desconhece a NBR 16365:2015, o que consequentemente pode expor as crianças a possíveis riscos quanto ao uso da roupa. Observou-se, também, que do pouco entendimento sobre as informações contidas nas etiquetas de roupas infantis, o consumidor indireto reconhece a importância e a necessidade de informações referentes a segurança constarem nas etiquetas afixadas a roupa.

In the past decade, weather disasters have claimed thousands of lives and resulted in billions of dollars in damages. Awareness of a storm threats can occur hours or days in advance, but disaster assessments indicate many people do not heed storm warnings. This problem is old. Despite 50 years of research, and new technologies and training to improve responsiveness, the basic issue– understanding how people interpret and respond to weather warnings–persists. An exploratory study that incorporated human behavior theories and communication models not traditionally associated with severe weather analysis was conducted to learn how weather risks are perceived by nonscientists. Emergency management personnel, a group consisting of emergency managers, support staff and law enforcement telecommunicators from two Midwestern states, were asked to read tornado warnings issued for storms that occurred in 2013 and 2014. Individuals were then interviewed to learn (a) how they perceived the risk and (b) their response to information conveyed by the warnings. Data analyses software was used to examine perceptions of severity, susceptibility, and response efficacy. Findings indicated that perceptions of risk and response depend upon relationships: trust in the source of the message, job responsibly, knowledge of risk, personal experience, and the type of threat perceived. Benchmarks, that did not previously exist, were established for perceptions of severity, susceptibility, and response efficacy to severe weather warnings. This study is one step in the process of positive social change to improve the warning process and save lives. The tangible impact of positive social change will be demonstrated by warnings that increase public responsiveness and result in fewer weather related fatalities.

<p>Cell Broadcast (CB) is a possible technical realisation of a global emergency alert system. It is a technique used for sending short text messages to all mobile stations (MSs) in a defined geographical area. An potential effect of using CB is the increase in battery consumption of the MS due to the fact that an extra channel has to be used to make the service available even when the network is otherwise congested. Another part of the service which leads to a potential problem is making CB messages available in different languages. Investigating these problems is the objective of this thesis and the studies it includes. During the first part of the thesis, we measured the battery consumption of MSs in different modes of operation in order to analyse how CB affects the amount of current drained. The tests showed that battery consumption increased only slightly when CB messages were being received at the MS. Although some of the results can be, and are, discussed, we believe that CB would have a small effect on the power consumption of an MS, particularly in a context where it would be used for emergency warning messages only. This mentioned, it would however be wishful to confirm the conclusions further through the realisation of long-term testing. The second part of the thesis deals with the investigation of the MSs’ support for CB messages with different coding schemes. Based on the investigation’s result, we have come to the conclusion that in the long term the usage of different coding schemes on the same channel is preferred. However, the usage of one, global, emergency channel is hard to realise since that requires a standardisation between all countries. In our opinion this may be achieved first in the long run and until then, the usage of separate channels seems to be necessary.</p>

In aposematism a prey species use bright colours, often combined with a black contrasting pattern, to signal unprofitability as prey to potential predators. Although there are several different hypotheses about the presence of these internally contrasting patterns, there is little experimental evidence of any beneficial effects. In this thesis I have used bird predators and artificial prey signals to investigate if the contrasting internal patterns in warning displays may have evolved to increase signal efficacy, especially regarding the speed of avoidance learning. In paper I the relative importance of colour and pattern in avoidance learning was studied. The conclusion was that birds primarily attend to colour, not pattern, when learning the discrimination, which was further supported by the results in paper II-IV, all suggesting a secondary role of patterns. In paper II I show that predators may to some degree use patterns for discrimination, if they convey important information about prey quality. The predators showed a hierarchical way of learning warning colour components, where colour is learned to a higher degree than pattern. In paper III I investigate if internal contrasting patterns promote avoidance learning by increasing conspicuousness as prey-to-background contrast does. The study did not support this idea, as the presence of internal black patterns did not improve avoidance learning on a colour matching background. In paper IV, however, I show that the presence of many internal colour boundaries resulted in faster avoidance learning on a multi-coloured background, and predator generalization favoured more internal boundaries, while there was no effect of pattern regularity. From these studies I conclude that internal pattern contrasts may function to increase the efficacy of the warning colour, its salience, and as a means for aposematic prey to be discriminated from harmful mimics. However, the major finding is the importance of colour over pattern. / <strong><em></em></strong><em></em><em></em>At  the time of the doctoral defence the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 2: Manuscript; Paper 4: Manuscript<strong><em> </em></strong>