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L'intensification de l'agriculture a joué un rôle crucial pour augmenter la production alimentaire au cours des dernières décennies. Plusieurs processus liés à l'intensification ont aussi causé d'importants dommages environnementaux, sur la biodiversité en particulier. L'agriculture doit aujourd'hui faire face au défi de satisfaire à une demande alimentaire croissante tout en améliorant son impact environnemental et sa durabilité. Il est nécessaire de connaître la forme de la relation entre biodiversité et intensité agricole pour déterminer où les politiques de conservation seront les plus efficaces et quelles allocations spatiales de l'intensité permettront de concilier production et biodiversité. Il existe peu de preuves empiriques de la forme de cette relation, de plus, l'influence de l'arrangement spatial de l'intensité sur la biodiversité demeure inconnue. Cette thèse avait pour objectif de déterminer comment cibler l'intensité agricole et son allocation spatiale afin d'atteindre des objectifs à la fois productifs et environnementaux. Afin de répondre à cette question, nous avons adopté une approche à l'échelle de la France entière, en couplant des bases de données décrivant l'agriculture et des oiseaux spécialistes des milieux agricoles à cette échelle. Nous avons caractérisé un gradient d'intensité à l'échelle du pays et étudié une communauté d'oiseaux spécialistes des milieux agricoles tout au long de ce gradient. Plusieurs descripteurs de cette communauté ont été utilisés, renseignant sa taille (richesse spécifique) mais aussi sa composition (spécialisation, niveau trophique, habitat). L'intensité agricole et les communautés d'oiseaux ont été reliées au niveau de la Petite Région Agricole (PRA; largeur moyenne = 22.4 km). Tout d'abord, nous avons développé une méthode permettant d'estimer un indicateur d'intensité agricole basé sur le coût intrant par hectare, au niveau de la PRA. Cet indicateur fournit une valeur d'intensité continue, pertinente à la fois pour les systèmes d'élevage et de culture. Ensuite, nous avons examiné les effets d'un gradient d'utilisation des sols (des prairies aux grandes cultures) et de leur hétérogénéité, sur la communauté d'oiseaux. L'hétérogénéité a un effet négatif sur les espèces spécialistes car elle entraine la perte de leur habitat. En revanche, elle avantage les espèces généralistes. Lors d'une troisième étape, nous avons montré que la communauté d'oiseaux était significativement influencée par l'intensité. Le long du gradient des espèces « gagnantes » remplacent des espèces « perdantes », ce changement étant plus marqué aux faibles intensités. L'effet de l'intensité sur la communauté d'oiseaux est renforcé par son agrégation spatiale. Enfin, les relations entre l'intensité, la communauté d'oiseaux, et les performances productives et économiques ont été intégrées dans un modèle d'optimisation de l'allocation de l'intensité. Les allocations optimales révèlent des solutions gagnant-non-perdant entre les trois critères de performance (biodiversité, production et économie). Ces allocations optimales correspondent à des modifications d'intensité ciblées: beaucoup de petits changements, favorisant des zones homogènes et extensives dans le cas d'un scénario d'extensification, à l'opposé de changements importants et moins nombreux, favorisant plus d'hétérogénéité, dans le cas d'un scénario d'intensification. Cette thèse apporte une des premières démonstrations de l'influence de l'agrégation spatiale de l'intensité sur la relation entre biodiversité et intensité. Nos résultats révèlent une opportunité pour améliorer l'efficacité des politiques de conservation de la biodiversité à l'échelle nationale. Il s'agit d'un ciblage de ces politiques, qui devra être différent pour maximiser la biodiversité à coût productif réduit ou pour augmenter la production tout en limitant les dommages sur la biodiversité / During the past several decades, agricultural intensification has been crucial to increase the food supply. Several processes related to intensification are very detrimental to the environment, particularly biodiversity. Today, agriculture is facing the challenge of satisfying its demand for food while improving its environmental sustainability. Knowledge of the shape of the relationship between biodiversity and intensity is necessary to determine both where conservation policies will be most effective and how to allocate intensity to reconcile production and biodiversity. Few empirical studies on this relationship exist, and the influence of the spatial arrangement of intensity on biodiversity remains untested. This Ph.D. thesis determined how to target both agricultural intensity and its spatial allocation for meeting production and conservation objectives of farmlands. To answer this research question, we used a country-scaled approach that combined two France-scaled databases that describe agriculture and farmland birds. We characterized a nationwide gradient of agricultural intensity and studied a farmland bird community along this gradient, using several trait-based descriptors (specialization, trophic level, and species main habitat). Agricultural intensity and bird communities were described at the Small Agricultural Region (SAR; mean width = 22.4 km) level. As a first step, we developed a novel method to estimate an intensity indicator that was based on Input Costs/ha, with SAR resolution. This indicator provides a continuous intensity measure that is relevant across different types of agricultural systems. Secondly, we investigated the effects of a gradient of land uses (grassland to arable land) and its heterogeneity on the bird community. We found habitat specialists suffered from habitat loss, while generalists benefited from heterogeneity. Thirdly, we showed that the community responded significantly to intensity, with winner species replacing loser species along the gradient. The shift between losers and winners was sharper at low intensities. Interestingly, spatial aggregation of intensity had a strengthening effect on the bird community. Finally, the relationships linking intensity to the bird community, food production, and economic performance were integrated into a model aimed at optimizing intensity allocation. Optimal allocations reached win-no-lose solutions with the three criteria. They corresponded to targeted intensity modifications: many small changed, favoring homogeneous, extensive clusters, were optimal within an extensification scenario; while a few large changes, favoring heterogeneity, were optimal within an intensification scenario. We provide one of the first studies demonstrating that spatial aggregation of intensity can influence the biodiversity/intensity relationship. Our results also provide an opportunity to improve the effectiveness of conservation policies, at national scales, with spatial targeting: opposite targeting should be performed either to maximize biodiversity benefits or to increase production, while mitigating biodiversity impacts. Our results highlight the importance of mixed allocation strategies between land sparing/sharing extremes. In order to put these opportunities into effect, further research should address the technical solutions that achieve intensity modification at the farm level and design targeted policies that benefit biodiversity and other environmental criteria

Conservation in the EU and all over the world aims at reducing biodiversity loss which has become a great issue in the last decades. However, despite existing efforts, Earth is assumed to face a sixth mass extinction. One major challenge for conservation is to reconcile the targets with conflicting interests, e.g. for food production in intensively used agricultural landscapes. Agriculture is an example of a coupled human-environment system that is approached in this thesis with the help of mathematical models from two directions. Firstly, the ecological subsystem is considered to find processes relevant for the effect of habitat connectivity on population abundances. Modelling theory predicts that the species-specific growth parameters (intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity) indicate whether dispersal has a positive or negative effect on the total population size at equilibrium (r-K relationship). We use laboratory experiments in combination with a system of ordinary differential equations and deliver the first empirical evidence for a negative effect of dispersal on the population size in line with this theory. The result is of particular relevance for the design of dispersal corridors or stepping stones which are meant to increase connectivity between habitats. These measures might not be effective for biological conservation. A second population model, consisting of two coupled Ricker maps with a mate-finding Allee effect, is analyzed in order to examine the effect of bistability due to the Allee effect in combination with overcompensation in a spatial system. The interplay can cause complex population dynamics including multiple coexisting attractors, long transients and sudden population collapses. Essential extinction teaches us that not only small populations are prone to extinction but chaotic dynamics can drive a population extinct in a short period of time as well. By a comprehensive model analysis, we find that dispersal can prevent essential extinction of a population. In the context of conservation that is: habitat connectivity can promote rescue effects to save a population that exhibits an Allee effect. The two findings of the first part of this thesis have contrasting implications for conservation which shows that universal recommendations regarding habitat connectivity are impossible without knowledge of the specific system. Secondly, a model for the socio-economic subsystem is presented. Agri-environment schemes (AES) are payments that compensate farmers for forgone profits on the condition that they improve the ecological state of the agricultural system. However, classical economic models that describe the cost-effectiveness of AES often do not take the social network of farmers into account. Numerical simulations of the socio-economic model presented in this thesis suggest that social norms can hinder farmers from scheme participation. Moreover, social norms lead to multistability in farmers’ land-use decision behaviour. Informational campaigns potentially decrease the threshold towards more long-term scheme participation and might be a good tool to complement compensation payments if social norms affect land-use decisions. Finally, a coupled human-environment system is analyzed. An integrated economicecological model is studied to investigate the cost-effectiveness of AES if the species of concern exhibits an Allee effect. A numerical model analysis indicates large trade-offs between agricultural production and persistence probability. Moreover, conservation success strongly depends on the initial population size, meaning that conservation is well advised to start before the species is threatened. Spatial aggregation of habitat can promote rescue effects, suggesting land-sparing solutions for conservation. In that case,agglomeration bonuses may serve to increase the effectiveness of AES. Possible causes for population declines are diverse and can be a combination of human influences, e.g. due to habitat degradation and inherent ecosystem properties. That complicates the task of conservation. The models presented in this thesis simplify complex systems in order to extract processes relevant for biological conservation. The analysis of spatial effects and dynamical model complexity, e.g. due to Allee effects or a nonlinear utility function, allows us improve the understanding of coupled human-environment systems.

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Agri-environment schemes (AESs), ecological focus areas (EFAs), and organic farming are the main tools of the common agricultural policy (CAP) to counteract the dramatic decline of farmland biodiversity in Europe. However, their effectiveness is repeatedly doubted because it seems to vary when measured at the field-versus-landscape level and to depend on the regional environmental and land-use context. Understanding the heterogeneity of their effectiveness is thus crucial to developing management recommendations that maximize their efficacy. Using ensemble species distribution models and spatially explicit field-level information on crops grown, farming practice (organic/conventional), and applied AES/EFA from the Integrated Administration and Control System, we investigated the contributions of five groups of measures (buffer areas, cover crops, extensive grassland management, fallow land, and organic farming) to habitat suitability for 15 farmland bird species in the Mulde River Basin, Germany. We used a multiscale approach to identify the scale of effect of the selected measures. Using simulated land-use scenarios, we further examined how breeding habitat suitability would change if the measures were completely removed and if their adoption by farmers increased to meet conservation-informed targets. Buffer areas, fallow land, and extensive grassland were beneficial measures for most species, but cover crops and organic farming had contrasting effects across species. While different measures acted at different spatial scales, our results highlight the importance of land-use management at the landscape level—at which most measures had the strongest effect. We found that the current level of adoption of the measures delivers only modest gains in breeding habitat suitability. However, habitat suitability improved for the majority of species when the implementation of the measures was increased, suggesting that they could be effective conservation tools if higher adoption levels were reached. The heterogeneity of responses across species and spatial scales indicated that a mix of different measures, applied widely across the agricultural landscape, would likely maximize the benefits for biodiversity. This can only be achieved if the measures in the future CAP will be cooperatively designed in a regionally targeted way to improve their attractiveness for farmers and widen their uptake.

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