O presente trabalho de dissertação tem o objetivo de analisar o crescimento da dívida pública brasileira no período entre 1994 a 2004. Assim, inicialmente é realizada uma revisão macroeconômica sobre o tema, e posteriormente são expostas políticas fiscal, monetária e cambial adotadas pelo governo nos últimos anos e sua influência sobre o crescimento do déficit público. Finalmente, analisa-se os fatores condicionantes da dívida, bem como eventuais propostas de solução para o problema. / This dissertation analyzes the growth in Brazilian public debt from 1994 to 2004. It begins with a review of the macroeconomic theory on the subject, followed by a description of the fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies adopted by the government in different years, and what influence did these policies have on public deficit growth. In the end, it analyzes the factors that cause the debt, as well as some propositions to solve the problem.

O objetivo do presente trabalho é avaliar o impacto da política fiscal sobre as variáveis de economia aberta, incluindo a taxa de câmbio. Para tanto, faz-se uso de um modelo DSGE com setor externo para o Brasil, tendo por base Grith (2007). Essa abordagem apresenta vantagens significativas em relação à literatura existente, como: (i) a presença de uma autoridade fiscal; (ii) rigidez nominal de preços e salários, (iii) uma Regra de Taylor, condizente com o sistema de Metas de Inflação; e (iv) a possibilidade de avaliar o impacto de choques gerados no país estrangeiro – no caso, os Estados Unidos –, sobre a economia local. Os resultados do modelo estimado, com dados trimestrais entre 2000 e 2011, sugerem que, entre as tributações sobre consumo, salário, capital e gastos do governo, a política fiscal que mais surte efeito sobre as variáveis do setor externo é a última. Além disso, é a política monetária que provoca o maior efeito em magnitude sobre a taxa de câmbio. / The present work aims to evaluate the fiscal policy impact on the open economy variables, including the exchange rate. In order to do this, it is used an DSGE model with external sector for Brazil, having Grith (2007) as a basis. This approach has significant advantages compared to the existing literature, such as: (i) the presence of a fiscal authority; nominal rigidity of prices and wages; (iii) a Taylor Rule, consistent with a Inflation Targeting system; and (iv) the possibility to evaluate the impact of shocks generated in the foreign country - in this case, the United States - under the local economy. The results of the estimated model suggest that among consumption, wage, capital taxations and government expenditures, the fiscal policy that has the biggest effect on the external sector variables is the last one. Furthermore, the monetary policy causes the greatest effect on the exchange rate.

Orientador: Daniela Magalhães Prates / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-18T04:15:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Conti_BrunoMartarellode_D.pdf: 3500035 bytes, checksum: ceb5824c5c7603d7f2b438d37029341f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / Resumo: Países periféricos apresentam especificidades na dinâmica de suas taxas de câmbio e juros e na condução de sua política econômica que nem sempre são consideradas pela teoria econômica ortodoxa. Defende-se nesta tese que as ditas especificidades decorrem preponderantemente de uma assimetria característica da configuração econômica global, a assimetria monetária. O Sistema Monetário Internacional é hierarquizado, segundo a capacidade das moedas nacionais de exercerem suas funções clássicas em âmbito internacional. De acordo com o exercício (ou não exercício) de suas funções no cenário internacional, as moedas são (ou não) detentoras do que se chama nesta tese de "liquidez da divisa". E a liquidez internacional das moedas tem influência direta sobre as características de sua demanda. No caso das moedas periféricas (ilíquidas em âmbito internacional) essa demanda exige um prêmio pela iliquidez da moeda (ou do ativo denominado nessa moeda), que determina uma taxa de juros mais elevada do que aquela verificada nos países centrais. Adicionalmente, essa demanda apresenta uma maior sensibilidade ao estado de confiança dos agentes globais (ou à preferência internacional pela liquidez), influenciando o grau de estabilidade dos fluxos de capitais que se dirigem a esses países. Sendo instáveis, esses fluxos exercem uma pressão que tende a aumentar a volatilidade das taxas de câmbio dos respectivos países e, em função da importância dessa taxa para a economia nacional, a engendrar importantes problemas para o manejo da política econômica / Abstract: Peripheral countries have a specific dynamics on their exchange and interest rates and on the conduction of their economic policy that are sometimes not considered by orthodox economic theory. This thesis proposes that these specificities originate mainly from an asymmetry that characterizes global economic configuration, the monetary asymmetry. The International Monetary System is hierarchised according to the ability of each national currency to fulfil classical money functions in the international sphere. Actually, it is the use (or non use) of a currency at the supranational level that determines if it possesses (or not) what is named in this thesis the "foreign exchange liquidity". And the liquidity of a currency or an asset denominated on this currency settles the characteristics of the demand for it. For peripheral currencies, this demand requires a prime for the illiquidity (in the international arena) of the currency (or asset), determining that their interest rates are usually higher than the ones verified in the central countries. Additionally, this demand have a higher sensibility to the global agents' confidence level (or to the "international liquidity preference"), influencing the stability of the capital that flows to these countries. Being unstable, these flows create a pressure over the exchange rates volatility, bringing about important difficulties on the conduction of national economic policies due to the centrality of these rates to the peripheral countries / Doutorado / Teoria Economica / Doutor em Ciências Econômicas

Existe uma necessidade de técnicas acuradas para a identificação das espécies de lianas nas formações florestais do Estado de São Paulo, de forma a permitir a implementação de medidas de conservação e manejo dos ecossistemas. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo a criação de mecanismos eficientes e rápidos para identificação anatômica da madeira de lianas. Para isso foram coletadas e descritas anatomicamente 54 espécies de lianas pertencentes a 19 famílias ocorrentes na mata da Reserva do Instituto de Biociências da USP, São Paulo-SP. Com as descrições anatômicas macroscópicas, características organolépticas e variações na conformação de tecidos (variações cambiais), foi possível criar chaves de múltipla entrada e eletrônica que possibilitam a identificação dos indivíduos até o nível de espécie. Essas chaves visaram a utilização de ferramentas simples tais como lupas de 10 aumentos. Desta forma, foram gerados produtos que permitem uma rápida e prática identificação de lianas utilizando-se apenas partes do caule. Esses produtos podem ser utilizados tanto em campo como em laboratório e também em material seco ou fresco. O trabalho aqui apresentado também desenvolveu um Guia de Identificação das Lianas ocorrentes na mata da Reserva do Instituto de Biociências da USP com pranchas iconográficas que mostram detalhadamente aspectos da anatomia das lianas. Concluiu-se que utilizando os grandes grupos de características supracitados em conjunto pode-se criar ferramentas de extrema utilidade para áreas com a flora previamente inventariada. / There is a need for techniques for accurate identification of species of lianas in forest formations of São Paulo, to allow the implementation of conservation and ecosystem management. This study aimed at creating mechanisms for efficient and rapid anatomical identification of the wood of vines. For this pupouse it was collected and described anatomically 54 lianas species belonging to 19 families that occurs in the Reserva do Instituto de Biociências da USP forest. With the anatomical descriptions, organoleptic characteristics and variations in the formation of tissues (cambial variants), it was possible to create multiple entry keys and electronic keys that enable the identification of individuals to the species level. These keys have targeted the use of simple tools such as hand lens of 10 increases. Thus were created products that allow a quick and easy identification of vines using only parts of the stem.These products can be used both in field and laboratory and also in dry or fresh. The work presented here has also developed a GUI Identification of Lianas occurring in the forest reserve of the Institute of Biosciences of USP with boards that show detailed iconographic aspects of the anatomy of lianas. It was concluded that using large groups of the above features together can create tools extremely useful in areas with previously inventoried the flora.

Seguindo a literatura mais recente sobre o tema, a presente dissertação teve por objetivo aferir as elasticidades da função de oferta brasileira de exportação de soja para a china à variabilidade da taxa de câmbio. Sob o viés que a alta inflação brasileira gera nas variáveis independentes, mais de um recorte para a instrumentalização dos diferentes determinantes foi considerado no design de pesquisa. Este adotoua cointegração por meio da abordagem do teste de Fronteiras de Pesaranpara a especificação concomitante de modelos ARDL(12,12,12,12) e ARDL (8,8,8,8,8) com doze ou oito trimestres-safra defasados, para o período compreendendo o primeiro trimestre de 1999 ao segundo de 2016. A busca por evidências para relações de longo prazo das exportações em toneladas de soja do Brasil para a China se deu em termos dos valores passados destas, bem como dos valores atuais e passados dos preços relativos, da demanda chinesa e da volatilidade cambial. A partir dos resultados destas projeções, o raciocínio sobre a influência da volatilidade cambial sobre as exportações de soja brasileira indica que esta, de fato, é positiva no longo prazo.Já no curto prazo são encontrados efeitos negativos. Assim, o aumento do risco pode diminuiras exportações dentro de um mesmo ano-safra, mas seu impacto é fundamentalmente positivo para o sojicultor. Dessa forma, como preconizado por Schultz (1980) os sojicultores são empreendedores que não são avessos ao risco. Pelo contrário, eles são entusiastas do risco, não apenas por este ser parte importante de suas decisões de investimento e financiamento, mas também porque a volatilidade maior aumenta a utilidade em exportar do sojicultor. / The objective of this dissertation was to assess the elasticity of Brazilian soybean exports to China in terms of the variability - or risk - of the exchange rate. In order to consider the bias of inflation volatility on the assessment of the independent variables, more than one methodology to calculate the different regressors was used. Projections were made using Pesaran´sbounds testapproach to cointegration, through the concomitant specification of ARDL (12,12,12,12) and ARDL(8,8,8,8,8) models consisting of up to twelve or eight lagged quarters- aggregated to the crop calendar- for the period from the first quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2016. Elasticity estimations from this approach allowed a search for long-run forcing influence between the regressors and Brazil\'s soybean exports, in terms of past values- in tons- of these, as well as current and past values of relative prices, Chinese demand and exchange rate volatility measures. The results of these projections indicate that an increase in risk has indeed a positiveeffect in the long term, while within the crop-year the effects are found to be negative. Thus, an increase in volatility may decrease exports in the short term, but its impact is fundamentally positive to the soy farmer. Thus, as advocated by Schultz (1980), soybean farmers are entrepreneurs who are not risk averse. On the contrary, they are risk enthusiasts, not only because the bulk of their investment decisions are subject to uncertainty, but also because an increase in volatility increases the utility that a soybean farmer extracts from exports.

In this thesis financial movements are considered in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI) and a related way to international banking. In Chapter 2 FDI is analysed in terms of the major G7 economies. Then this is further handled in Chapter 3 in terms of bilateral FDI (BFDI) data related to a broader group of economies and a main mode of analysis the Gravity model. Gravity models are then used in Chapter 4 to analyse bilateral cross border lending in a similar way. While the exchange rate effect is handled in terms of volatility and measured using models of conditional variance. The analysis focused on the bilateral data pays attention to the breakdown of crises across the whole period. With further consideration made of the Euro zone in terms of the study of BFDI and cross border lending. The initial study looks at the determinants of the inflow and outflow of stocks of FDI in the G7 economies for the period 1980-2011. A number of factors, such as research and development (R&D), openness and relative costs are shown to be important, but the main focus is on the impact of the real and nominal effective exchange rate volatility. Where nominal and real exchange rate volatility are measured using a model of generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) to explain the variance. Although the impact of volatility is theoretically ambiguous inflows are generally negatively affected by increased volatility, whilst there is some evidence outflows increase when volatility rises. In Chapter 3, the effect of bilateral exchange rate volatility is analysed using BFDI stocks, from 14 high income countries to all the OECD countries over the period 1995-2012. This is done using annual panel data with a gravity model. The empirical analysis applies the generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator to a gravity model of BFDI stocks. The findings imply that exports, GDP and distance are key variables that follow from the Gravity model. This study considers the East Asian, global financial markets and systemic banking crises have exerted an impact on BFDI. These effects vary by the type and origin of the crisis, but are generally negative. A high degree of exchange rate volatility discourages BFDI. Chapter 4 considers the determinants of cross-border banking activity from 19 advanced countries to the European Union (EU) over the period 1999-2014. Bilateral country-level stock data on cross-border lending is examined. The data allows us to analyse the effect of financial crises – differentiated by type: systemic banking crises, the global financial crisis, the Euro debt crisis and the Lehman Brothers crisis on the geography of cross-border lending. The problem is analysed using quarterly panel data with a Gravity model. The empirical "Gravity" model conditioned on distance and size measured by GDP is a benchmark in explaining the volume of cross border banking activities. In addition to the investigation of the impact of crises further comparison is made by investigating the impact of European integration on cross-border banking activities between member states. These results are robust to various econometric methodologies, samples, and institutional characteristics.

This study investigated how the replacement of domestic savings by foreign savings for appreciation of exchange rates influenced the Brazilian economic growth from 1995 to 2012. After implementing the Real Plan, Brazil adopted a stabilization and growth strategy based on a wide use of foreign capital. At first, this strategy controlled the exchange rates in appreciated levels and contributed to the convergence of domestic and foreign prices. Nonetheless, it contributed, over time, to a loss of competitiveness of national industry, an increase of the federal debt and an excessive dependence on foreign savings. The conventional theory states that foreign savings may supplement insufficient domestic savings in order to increase investments in a country. However, econometric analyses with an error correction mechanism were performed, showing that the Brazilian domestic savings were negatively affected by the federal debt and foreign savings. Furthermore, they also showed that the GDP was negatively impacted by the exchange rate appreciation during the study period. Therefore, the results demonstrated that the reduction of external dependence is necessary to reduce the interest rates, avoid the substitution of savings and make more domestic resources available for investment. Additionally, they showed that depreciations on the exchange rates can contribute to a long term Brazilian economic growth. / O presente trabalho teve o objetivo de investigar o impacto do uso da poupança externa na substituição da poupança interna e na apreciação da taxa de câmbio, bem como a influência dessas variáveis sobre o crescimento econômico brasileiro entre 1995 e 2012. O Brasil, após a implantação do plano real, adotou uma estratégia de estabilização e crescimento pautados na larga utilização de capitais estrangeiros. Isso, apesar de contribuir, em um primeiro momento, para controle da taxa de câmbio em níveis apreciados e para a convergência dos preços internos com os externos, contribuiu, ao longo do tempo, para o desenvolvimento de uma excessiva dependência da poupança externa, perda de competitividade da indústria nacional e aumento da dívida pública federal. A teoria convencional diz que a insuficiente poupança interna em um país pode ser complementada pela poupança externa, a fim de alavancar os investimentos. No entanto, as análises econométricas realizadas com mecanismo de correção de erros demonstraram que a poupança interna brasileira foi impactada negativamente pela poupança externa e pela dívida pública federal. Não obstante, o PIB, no período estudado, foi influenciado negativamente pela tendência de apreciação cambial. Portanto, os resultados direcionam para a necessidade da diminuição da dependência externa, a fim de permitir redução da taxa de juros, evitar a substituição entre as poupanças e permitir maior disponibilidade de recursos domésticos para investimento. Adicionalmente, demonstram que depreciações na taxa de câmbio são capazes de contribuir para o crescimento econômico brasileiro de longo prazo.

Magister Scientiae - MSc / This project "An application of multiple regression in exchange rate arrangement" focused on the processes followed by different countries when choosing an exchange rate regime for currency stabilization. It analyses the consequences faced by emerging markets as a result of changes in volatility of developed countries’ currencies (American Dollar, Japanese Yen, EURO, British Pound and the Canadian Dollar). / South Africa

The aim of this thesis is to estimate bilateral equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna relative to Euro and to determine if the Czech currency is undervalued or overvalued relative to the market equilibrium. We employ fundamental (FEER) and behavioral (BEER) equilibrium exchange rate models, which enables to measure the currency position relative to the market rate. To tackle the uncertainty of the implied equilibrium exchange rates that differ among alternative specifications of the models, we aggregate the estimates via principal components analysis. The perception on the market is that Czech koruna is undervalued, since the intervention regime imposed by the Czech National Bank in the 2013, was defending the exchange rate floor of 27 Czech korunas to Euro. Then, we extend conventional specifications of BEER models for variables representing exchange rate interventions and forward rates offered on the market because both can have protracted effects not only on spot rates but on adjustment towards long-term equilibrium as well. The original models with fundamental factors show equilibrium exchange rate near to 25 CZK/EUR. However, extended models with interventions show higher equilibrium exchange rate, near to 27 CZK/EUR. Thus, there is possibility of slow adjustment near to the...

Bretton Woods system has never been a main topic of Czech economic literature even though it strongly influenced finance of the most developed countries between 1944 and 1971 (1973). This diploma thesis is an attempt to analyze this important historical phenomena in international finance and the last metal oriented system in the history. The first chapter brings the most important terms and definitions that are necessary for better understanding of this problem. It is followed by chapters analysing international finance development in this area starting with the interwar period, followed by creation of Bretton Woods Monetary System in 1944 and first very successful and hopeful years that finally came to an end with accumulation of more problems that put a strain on the system such as for instance creation of long term dollar deficits by United States. This paper also analyzes the most important problems, finds similarities between Bretton Woods System and European Monetary System and tries to answer a question if this system or any monetary system like that can be successful on a long term basis.