The traditional view of financial theory proposes an implicit rationality in decision making. But the decisions taken by individuals have been inconsistent with such assumptions. In this context, the study of risk tolerance has become increasingly more significant in today's society, because the understanding of risk tolerance forms of investment decisions and in providing products that can meet these needs. Despite the significance of the research topic has been inconsistent, particularly with respect to its determinants. Historically, research has revolved around heuristics demographic and socioeconomic assumptions neglecting emotional, cognitive and behavioral related to financial decision-making. This study aims to evaluate what are the determinants of risk tolerance. For this, we conducted a survey to survey with 815 individuals living in Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul Data were collected through questionnaire and analyzed via factor analysis, statistical tests (ANOVA, t test and correlation) and analysis of regression. The results show three factors that explain the risk tolerance, which are: Emotion factor, factor effect Staying Out of Factor and Self-attribution. Regression were added six variables analized in Behavioral Finance, which are: banking money effect, cognitive dissonance, self-protection, over-confidence, perception of risk and opportunity, effect cost already incurred and two other variables associated with the materialism that are spending with expensive things and join before you spend. It was explained 34.92% of the total variance of the data through these exogenous variables. Overall, and consistent, the assumptions of unlimited rationality have been refuted, but consistent with prospect theory, which agrees with the numerous studies that demonstrate the violation of assumptions of rationality unlimited. The heuristics traditionally used for determining the level of risk tolerance, which implies a strong correlation between the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics were not significant in this study. The cognitive, emotional and behavioral decision making were more significant than this traditional vision of risk. / A visão tradicional da teoria financeira propõe uma implícita racionalidade na tomada de decisão. Mas as decisões tomadas pelos indivíduos tem se mostrado inconsistentes com tais pressupostos. Sob este contexto, o estudo da tolerância ao risco tem se mostrado cada vez mais significativo na sociedade atual, pois a compreensão da tolerância ao risco dá forma a decisões de investimento e de oferta de produtos capazes de atender tais necessidades. Apesar da significância do tema as pesquisas tem se mostrado inconsistentes, especialmente quanto aos seus determinantes. Historicamente as pesquisas têm girado em torno de heurísticas demográficas e socioeconômicas negligenciando as suposições emocionais, cognitivas e comportamentais relacionadas à tomada de decisão financeira. Neste sentido, este estudo objetiva avaliar quais são os fatores determinantes da tolerância ao risco. Para isto, foi realizada uma pesquisa survey junto a 815 indivíduos residentes na cidade de Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul. Os dados foram coletados por meio de questionário e analisados via análise fatorial, testes estatisticos (ANOVA, teste t e correlação) e análise de regressão. Os resultados apresentam três fatores que explicam a tolerância ao risco, que são: fator Emoção, fator Efeito Ficar de Fora e Fator Auto-atribuição. Na regressão foram adicionadas seis variáveis estudadas na Finança Comportamental que são: efeito dinheiro da banca, dissonância cognitiva, auto-proteção, excesso de confiança, percepção de risco como oportunidade, efeito custo já incorridos e outras duas variáveis associadas ao Materialismo que são: gastar com coisas caras e juntar antes de gastar. Explicou-se 34,92%, da variância total dos dados através destas variáveis exógenas. De maneira geral, e consistente, as suposições de racionalidade foram refutadas, mas consistentes à Teoria dos Prospectos, corroborando com os inúmeros estudos que demonstram a violação das suposições de racionalidade. As heurísticas tradicionalmente utilizadas para a determinação do nível de tolerância ao risco e que supõem uma forte correlação entre as características demográficas e socioeconômicas não se mostraram significativas neste trabalho. As dimensões cognitivas, emocionais e comportamentais, da tomada de decisão, mostraram-se significativas.

This study's main objective is to identify the existence of a relationship between the Amounts of Money and Propensity to Indebtedness in students. One of the advantages of this work is to check what the values are assigned to the money and the existence of a relationship between factors of Money Values and Propensity to Indebtedness of college students, as well as identifying factor levels and the Propensity to Indebtedness. The study will be conducted in line with the concepts of behavioral finance, covering topics such as values of cash, debt and related research and is characterized as a descriptive and quantitative research.The population consists of students from areas of knowledge pertaining to the study of social sciences at the Federal University of Maranhão, the courses that make up the Centre for Social Sciences (CCSO) Campus in the City of St. Louis for a total sample of 360 individuals online. As analysis technique for checking the meaning of the Securities Money Factor analysis was used. In verifying the Propensity to Indebtedness the variables that make up the Attitude Scale of the Indebtedness proposed in the work of Moura (2005), Disney and Ganthergood (2011) and Flowers (2012) was used. As a result 10 factors and their respective Cronbach Alphas were found: Conflict (0.900), Pleasure (0.864), Power (0.820), Culture (0.800), Detachment (0.765), inequality (0.733), Concern (0.693), Progress (0.740), stability (0.681) and self-realization (0.620). Regarding the levels of Propensity to Indebtedness was identified that 97.51% have an average score for Propensity to Indebtedness and 2.49% shows a high level of Propensity to Indebtedness. As the association was identified that all factors are associated with the average level of Propensity to Indebtedness and there was a predominance of medium and high levels for most of Values Money factors. / O presente estudo tem por objetivo principal identificar a existência de relação entre Valores do Dinheiro e a Propensão ao Endividamento em estudantes. Um dos diferenciais deste trabalho está em verificar quais são os valores atribuídos ao dinheiro e a existência de relação entre os fatores de Valores do Dinheiro e a Propensão ao Endividamento dos estudantes universitários, bem como identificar os níveis dos fatores e da Propensão ao Endividamento. O estudo será realizado em alinhamento com os conceitos das finanças comportamentais, abordando temas como valores do dinheiro, endividamento e pesquisas relacionadas ao tema e se caracteriza como uma pesquisa descritiva e quantitativa. A população é constituída por estudantes de áreas do conhecimento pertencentes à linha de estudo das ciências sociais da Universidade Federal do Maranhão, dos cursos que compõem o Centro de Ciências Sociais (CCSO) no Campus na Cidade de São Luís totalizando uma amostra de 360 indivíduos. Como técnica de análise para verificação do significado dos Valores do Dinheiro foi utilizada a análise fatorial. Na verificação da Propensão ao Endividamento foram utilizadas as variáveis que compõem a Escala de Atitude ao Endividamento propostas nos trabalhos de Moura (2005), Disney e Ganthergood (2011) e Flores (2012). Como resultado foram encontrados 10 fatores e seus respectivos Alfas de Cronbach: Conflito (0,900), Prazer (0,864), Poder (0,820), Cultura (0,800), Desapego (0,765), Desigualdade (0,733), Preocupação (0,693), Progresso (0,740), Estabilidade (0,681) e Auto-realização (0,620). Quanto aos níveis da Propensão ao Endividamento foi identificado que 97,51% apresentam uma classificação média em relação a Propensão ao Endividamento e 2,49% apresenta um alto nível de Propensão ao Endividamento. Quanto à associação foi identificado que todos os fatores estão associados ao nível médio de Propensão ao Endividamento e houve predominância dos níveis alto e médio para a maioria dos fatores de Valores do Dinheiro.

Bakgrund: För att förklara olika händelser på den finansiella marknaden använder sig många forskare av aktiemarknadspsykologi med bakgrund i att aktörerna är människor. Konsensus är aktieanalytikers sammanställda estimat som ska motsvara marknadens aggregerade, fundamentala förväntningar. Det faktum att aktieanalytiker är människor gör att även dessa influeras av psykologi, vilket i sin tur både påverkar konsensus, investerare och till slut även marknaden. Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats är att analysera och belysa vad som ligger bakom konsensusestimaten för att sedan kunna redogöra för hur aktörer på aktiemarknaden kan förhålla sig till detta. Fokus kommer att ligga på faktorer som, till skillnad från fundamentala och tekniska analyser, har sin utgångspunkt i aktiemarknadspsykologi. Metod: Med en kvalitativ ansats genomfördes intervjuer med tio olika aktieanalytiker. Intervjuerna ligger sedan till grund för analysen där den teoretiska referensramen bestående av aktiemarknadspsykologiska faktorer användes för att dra slutsatser. Slutsats: Resultatet visar på att konsensus inte fullt motsvarar aktieanalytikernas egentliga åsikter och att investerare och analytiker därför snarare bör förhålla sig till konsensus som en referenspunkt än som en riktlinje för investeringar. / Background: To explain certain events that transpires on the stock market a lot of scientists use behavioral finance. They use this due to the fact that the market participants are human after all. Consensus estimates is the compiled estimates of sell side analyst which is supposed to be equivalent to the markets fundamental expectations. The fact that sell side analysts are human infers that they also get influenced by psychology, which in turn affect consensus, investors and lastly the market. Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze and shed light on the elements that affect consensus estimates to clarify how stock market participants can relate to them. The focus will be on elements that, unlike fundamental and technical analysis, originates from behavioral finance. Method: Ten different stock analysts have been interviewed with a qualitative research approach. The interviews then acted as a basis for the analysis where the theory, originating from behavioral finance, is used to come to a conclusion. Conclusion: In conclusion, the result exhibits proof that consensus estimates doesn’t, to a full extent, truly reflect the sell side analysts’ true beliefs. Investors and other stock analysts should therefore relate to consensus as a reference point rather than a guideline for investment decisions.

Thesis deals with analysis and interpretation of movements of share rates in the view of behavioral finance. It examines how investor psychology, as one man, and the characteristics of the crowd and their influence on the behavior of the markets. This work represents some of the theoretical concepts of behavioral finance, which are contrary to the postulates of the theory of efficient markets, as well as empirical evidence on market anomalies that serve as the basis of arguments advocates of behavioral finance. The theoretical parts are dismembered some of the main influences acting on the psychology of investors, with a strong emphasis on the scarcity of arbitration, and some selected problems of the theory. In the practical part in the three experiments proven results confirming the interpretation of behavioral finance.

The thesis focuses on the partial synthesis of investment strategies based on the theory of efficient markets and behavioral finance. Model of investment behavior consists of three parts - the Markowitz model of portfolio approach , De Bondt - Thaler model of re-building portfolio by capital gains in past and a model of short-term behavioral biases. Parameters of behavioral biases are determined arbitrarily and calibrated using correlation analysis for stock index DJIA and the particular stock title. The assembled model of short-term behavioral biases can explain only about 1 percent of changes in market prices of assets and regression analysis doesn't confirmed their statistical significance. Better results were found in a particular stock title than the stock index. The model of investment behavior has shown that without taking into account transaction costs Markowitz model was the most successful, but taking into account the costs De Bondt - Thaler model was more successful. The model of behavioral biases couldn't even overcome market benchmark, but in terms of risk the model was the least risky. The overall model of investment behavior also suggested the possibility of prediction of financial crisis, which could also be a space for further research in this area. The synthesis would also be appropriate to explore also by other methods such as simulation or real survey.

Inom finansiell ekonomi finns en seglivad teori om att utdelningsändringar innehåller information om framtida ekonomiska resultat. Aktiemarknaden reagerar i enlighet med teorin på så vis att aktiekursen stiger när utdelningen höjs, och tvärtom, vilket har dokumenterats i ett flertal studier. Bakom aktiemarknadens reaktion på den ändrade utdelningen borde det finnas ett positivt samband mellan utdelningsändringar och framtida ekonomiska resultat. Problemet är att förekomsten av ett sådant samband är högst tveksam; tidigare empiriska studier har trots flerfaldiga försök inte funnit övertygande argument för förekomsten av ett samband mellan utdelningsändringar och framtida ekonomiska resultat. Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka om det finns ett positiv samband mellan utdelningsändringar och framtida resultat och lönsamhet. Det empiriska underlaget är företag på Nasdaq Stockholm under perioden 1999–2018. Sambandet eftersöks med hjälp av en regressionsmodell i vilken vi kontrollerar för det icke-linjära beteendeet hos resultat och lönsamhet. Vi finner ett par statistiskt signifikanta resultat som påvisar samband mellan sänkta utdelningar och framtida resultat och lönsamhet; dessa är dock så pass små att de saknar ekonomisk relevans. Vårt resultat är således i linje med tidigare empiriska studier och stödjer därmed inte teori om utdelningssignalering. / Within the area of corporate finance, there exists a persistent theory that revolves around the idea that changes in terms of corporate dividend may yield information regarding future financial results. The stock market is known to fluctuate in accordance with this theory by ways of indicating increased share prices in close correspondence to increased dividend, and vice versa, which has also been documented in several previous studies. This relation between the stock market’s reaction to the change in dividend should by all accounts point to a positive correlation between dividend changes and future financial results. Yet, this relation has to this point been proved to be highly doubtful. Previous empirical studies have not been able to find any convincing arguments that such a relationship exists. The purpose of this essay is to investigate if there in fact exists a relationship between dividend changes and future earnings and profitability. The empirical data for this study consists of the companies listed on the Nasdaq Stockholm during the period of 1999 to 2018. This proposed relationship has been investigated by the use of a regression model, in which we have examined the known non-linear behaviour of earnings and profitability. By this method we have found a few results of statistical significance that do seem to indicate a relation, between lowered dividend and future financial outcomes. However, while still statistically significant, these results are not economically significant. Our results are therefore considered to be in line with previous research and does not offer any further support for the proposed theory of the dividend signaling hypothesis.

Cette thèse aborde le thème de la rationalité limitée à travers quatre chapitres, associant modèles théoriques, expériences en laboratoire et analyses statistiques et économétriques. Dans les deux premiers chapitres, nous testons la validité de nouveaux modèles en économie qui utilisent le formalisme mathématique de la mécanique quantique pour rendre compte de biais cognitifs. Au sein du chapitre 1, nous considérons des modèles expliquant l'effet d'ordre et en dérivons de nouvelles prédictions expérimentales. Dans le chapitre 2, nous proposons une expérience originale pour tester une large gamme de modèles quantiques qui rendent compte de l'erreur de conjonction. Les deux groupes de modèles échouent à nos tests empiriques. Nous discutons alors de possibles pistes d'améliorations de ces modèles. Le chapitre 3 explore la façon dont les individus traitent des informations économiques successives, complexes et abondantes. Nos résultats expérimentaux montrent l'inaptitude des sujets à combiner de telles informations, ce qui confirme la théorie de la trace floue. Enfin, le chapitre 4 relève de la finance expérimentale. Il étudie comment l'achat sur marge (respectivement la vente à découvert) augmente (diminue) le niveau des prix, la volatilité, l'hétérogénéité des marchés et les anticipations de prix des traders ainsi que la façon dont il modifie les stratégies de trading. Nos résultats mettent en évidence les nettes conséquences de chacune de ces techniques prises séparément, et identifient des phénomènes inattendus lorsqu'elles sont combinées. Nos analyses ouvrent la voie à une meilleure prise en compte de ces interactions déstabilisatrices par les autorités de régulation. / This thesis studies bounded rationality through four chapters, combining theoretical models, laboratory experiments and statistical and econometric analyzes. In the first two chapters, we test the validity of new models in economics which rely on the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to account for cognitive biases. In chapter 1, we consider models explaining the order effect and we derive new experimental predictions. In chapter 2, we propose an original experiment to test a wide range of quantum models that account for the conjunction fallacy. Both groups of models fail in our empirical tests and we then discuss possible ways to improve these models. The third chapter explores how individuals deal with successive, complex and abundant economic information. Our experimental results show the subjects' inability to combine such information, which confirms the fuzzy trace theory. Finally, the fourth chapter deals with experimental finance. It studies how margin buying (respectively short selling) increases (decreases) price levels, volatility, heterogeneity of markets, and traders' price expectations, as well as how it changes trading strategies. Our results highlight the clear consequences of each of these techniques used alone, and point to unexpected phenomena when both are combined. Regulatory authorities could take advantage of our analyzes to reduce the destabilization introduced by these techniques.

The stock market have received a fair amount of attention in the media recently as a result of the ongoing covid-19 pandemic. The question arouse if there is one month in the year that outperforms all other months in the stock market. A well known anomaly in the world of finance referred to as, the January effect, came up to discussion. Earlier studies of this subject have achieved different results and conclusions. Therefore, this study aims to examine if the January effect exists on mid cap and large cap companies on the Swedish stock market. To achieve this, one large cap portfolio and one mid cap portfolio both equally weighted with ten companies each were created. These two portfolios were analyzed with, among others, a well known regression model for season anomalies. The results of this study concludes that the January effect does not exist in neither of the portfolios.

The main purpose of this study is to contribute to the previous literature by evaluating positive changes in analysts' consensus recommendations of the stocks listed in OMXS30. We analyze if new positive changes in consensus recommendations correspond with lower abnormal returns. By conducting an event study and performing a series of different statistical tests, we find that positive changes in analyst consensus provide a short lived negative mean abnormal return in certain cases. We argue that this implies that investors might interpret positive changes as a sell signal. Furthermore, we find some pieces of evidence to suggest that it may actually be changes in the mean target price rather than changes in recommendations that causes the movements in abnormal returns.

L'étude est effectuée sur la base d'un échantillon de 13.000 clients d'un courtier en ligne et 1,3M de mouvements d'achats et de vente de valeurs mobilières durant le période Janvier 2006 - Juin 2008. Nous démontrons 1/ Grâce à des régressions linéaires, que les investisseurs individuels français présentent un comportement contrarian par rapport aux évolutions de l'indice domestique. Ils achètent quand le marché baisse et vendent quand le marché monte. Ce résultat est cohérent avec la littérature sur les "noise traders" et la liquidité du marché.2/ sous la forme de régressions logistiques, que la sophistication (approximée par l'utilisation du SRD) est un facteur d'accroissement de la décision d'achat.Ces résultats ouvrent des perspectives pour l'industrie financière et le développement de l'Education financière dans notre pays. / This dissertation draws from a sample of 13 000 clients of an online broker and 1.3M movements of buys and sells from January 2006 to June 2008. The results show that:1/ By regressing the buys and sells to the returns of the domestic index (CAC 40), the french individual investors have a contrarian behavior. This result is in line with the existing literature on "noise traders" and the market liquidity.2/ Through logistic regression of the purchase decision, we show that sophistication (that we proxy with the use of the SRD), is a strong factor explaining the purchase decision.These results can bring insights to the financial industry and help to the development of the financial litteracy.