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Hade The Turtle Traders bara tur? / Were the Turtle Traders just lucky?Boström, Johan January 2017 (has links)
På 1980-talet handlade en grupp, som kallades för The Turtle Traders, med två trendföljande handelsstrategier helt baserade på teknisk analys på ett stort antal finansmarknader. De två handelsstrategierna byggde på mekaniska regler för köp- respektive säljbeslut och riskhantering, men även regler för vilka marknader som var tillåtna att handla på. Gruppen var mycket framgångsrik under flera år och medlemmarnas avkastningar översteg marknadernas avkastningar med råge. Den svaga varianten av den effektiva marknadshypotesen säger att detta ska vara omöjligt på effektiva marknader. På en effektiv marknad är det enligt hypotesen istället bättre att följa en buy-and-hold strategi. Hur kommer det sig att The Turtle Traders lyckades? Var det bara tur att de två trendföljande strategierna, som genererade köp- och säljbesluten, gav väldigt höga avkastningar under några år på 1980-talet? Eller är inte marknaderna effektiva? Inom forskningen råder det idag en oklar bild kring den effektiva marknadshypotesen och huruvida marknaderna är effektiva. Olika vetenskapliga studier presenterar tester som både stöder och förkastar hypotesen. Syftet med det här examensarbetet är att visa huruvida de två trendföljande strategierna fortfarande är vinstgivande och därmed användbara strategier på dagens finansmarknader. Syftet är också att jämföra de två strategierna med buy-and-hold strategin på olika marknaderna och därmed bidra med ytterligare insikter till den numera alltmer ifrågasättande diskussionen kring den effektiva marknadshypotesen, med speciellt fokus på den svaga varianten. För att få fram vilka avkastningar de två trendföljande strategierna ger på dagens marknader konstrueras inom ramen för detta examensarbete ett datorprogram som simulerar de köp- och säljbeslut som skulle tas med hjälp av de mekaniska regler som de två trendföljande strategierna bygger på. Undersökningen i examensarbetet ger, precis som många andra undersökningar, en oklar bild kring den effektiva marknadshypotesen. Hälften av de finansmarknader som undersöks tycks vara ineffektiva och hälften effektiva, enligt den svaga varianten av hypotesen. Undersökningen visar även att de två trendföljande strategierna inte är så pass vinstgivande att de kan rekommenderas att använda på dagens finansmarknader. / During the 1980s a group called The Turtle Traders used two trend following trading strategies, based on technical analysis, to trade a large number of financial markets. The two trading strategies used mechanical rules to make buy and sell decisions and to manage risk. The rules also specified which markets to trade. The group was very successful during several years in the 1980s and the returns the members of the group generated, using the two trading strategies, widely surpassed the returns of the markets. The weak form of the efficient market hypothesis states that this should be impossible on markets that are efficient. On efficient markets it is instead better to follow a buy-and-hold strategy. How come that The Turtle Traders succeeded? Was is just luck that the two trend following strategies, that generated the buy and sell decisions, resulted in such high returns during a few years in the 1980s? Or are the markets inefficient? Current research gives an unclear picture regarding the efficient market hypothesis and whether or not the markets are efficient. Different studies present results that both support and reject the hypothesis. The purpose of this bachelor thesis is to show whether or not the two trend following strategies still are profitable and therefor useful strategies on the financial markets of today. The purpose is also to compare the two strategies with the buy-and-hold strategy on different markets and in this way contribute with more insights to the ongoing and nowadays often increasingly questioning discussion regarding the efficient market hypothesis, with special focus on the weak form of the hypothesis. To get the returns of the two trend following strategies on the financial markets of today a computer program is constructed as part of this bachelor thesis. This computer program simulates the buy and sell decisions that would have been taken by the mechanical rules the two trend following strategies are built upon. The study done in this bachelor thesis gives, just as many other studies, an unclear picture of the efficient market hypothesis. Half of the markets that are studied in this thesis seem to be inefficient and half seem to be efficient, according to the weak form of the hypothesis. The study also shows that none of the two trend following strategies are profitable enough that they can be recommended to be used on the financial markets of today.
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The role of financial and non-financial goals in the make or buy decision at a family firm : A case study on Väderstad ABÅkerström, Björn, Skarphagen, Rasmus January 2020 (has links)
Background: Make or buy decisions is the most fundamental part in a company’s manufacturing strategy. The decision is complex and involves sacrifices whichever strategy is chosen, and before making the decision the firm should understand and evaluate the trade-offs and comparative costs of manufacturing or outsourcing. The uniqueness of family firms is that they often operate their business with non-financial goals at the centre. This study will investigate the make or buy decisions at Väderstad AB, a family owned firm that deals with decisions of make or buy on a large scale, with many thousands of parts included in their final machines, and decisions made daily whether to make or buy. There is no existing research looking at the qualitative non-financial goals and factors in family firms and how it affects the make or buy decision. Purpose: This master thesis studies the make or buy decision at a family firm. The aim is twofold, namely, to explore the potential uniqueness of family firms within the context of the make or buy decision and then to create a make or buy decision model for a family firm. This aim is explorative, i.e. to generate theory, in the realm of family firm research. Method: This is a qualitative study performed by conducting a single case study methodology. 12 Semi-structured interviews with 14 employees from all parts of the case company and the use of documents from archival records were collected as data. The data was analyzed with the technique of 1st order concepts, etc. as developed by Gioia. Conclusion: Our analysis showed that in the context of family firms, the primary factors influencing make or buy decisions at the case company were not financial goals. Instead drivers were goodwill for customers, innovation, quality, flexibility and control which are non-financial goals. However, financial goals were not neglected, but rather costs were measured after a decision had been made, proving that it was not in the centre of their operations before and during the decision and thus, it was secondary. As a result, non-financial goals played a larger role than financial goals in the make or buy decision.
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Från- och närvaroplanering för Scania Sverige / Work Attendance Planning for Scania Company in SwedenAl-Sahaf, Hussein, Susso, Madi January 2013 (has links)
Detta examensarbete gjordes i två syften, att ge Scania teoretiskt underlag till en ny teknik för hantering av personalens från och närvaroplanering, samt implementera den nya tekniken. Scanias dåvarande lösning utnyttjades genom att använda olika Excel-ark, dessa har uppfattats som ineffektiva och krångliga att arbeta med. Detta har lett till en hel del extra administrativt arbete och behovet av en ny lösning definierades till ett examensarbete. Den initiala fasen av projektet handlade om att förstå relevanta processer rörande från och närvaroplanering. Allt eftersom processerna var förstådda definierades krav på den nya lösningen genom kvalitativa metoder och intervjuer med respondenter av olika befattningar från verksamheten. Kraven som erhölls från intervjuerna visade sig vara relativt konsistenta och fastställdes i en kravspecifikation. Kravspecifikationen användes för att utvärdera olika lösningar som valts ut från marknadens utbud. Vidare genomfördes en make or buy analys som gjorde det möjligt att avgöra om lösningen skulle köpas in eller utvecklas internt. Efter interna diskussioner inom Scania, där resultaten från utvärderingen och make or buy analysen analyserades, fattades beslutet att den nya lösningen skulle byggas i en Microsoft SharePoint miljö. Miljön var redan tillgänglig för Scania och implementeringen gjordes i form av en pilotimplementering. Två grupper från Scanias verksamhet fick en förfrågan om de ville agera piloter, i syfte att utvärdera lösningen efter styrkor, svagheter och önskad funktionalitet. Pilotfasen är planerad att starta i början av september 2013. / This thesis was done with two-fold purpose, to give Scania a theoretical base for a new technology for management of the personnel presence and absence planning and to implement this new technology. Scanias former solution was utilized by using different Excel sheets and these have been perceived as inefficient and cumbersome to work with. This has led to a lot of additional administrative work and the need for a new solution was defined to this thesis. The initial phase of the project focused on understanding the relevant processes related to the presence and absence planning. When the processes were well understood, requirements on the new system were captured through qualitative methods and interviews with respondents of different positions from the enterprise. The requirements obtained from the interviews proved to be relatively consistent and was defined in a requirement specification. These requirements were used to evaluate different solutions chosen from the commercial stock. In addition, a make or buy analysis were created and made it possible to determine whether the solution would be bought or developed internally. After internal discussions within Scania, where the results from the alternative solution evaluation and the make or buy analysis was considered, it was decided that the new solution would be built in a Microsoft SharePoint environment. The environment was already available for Scania and the implementation was done as a pilot implementation. Two groups from Scanias enterprise was asked to act pilots, in order to evaluate the solution by strengths, weaknesses and desired functionalities. The pilot phase is planned to start in early September 2013.
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The influence of macroenvironmental factors on online shopping and the use of BNPL / Inverkan av makrofaktorer på e-handel och användningen av BNPLHardin, Maria, Twengström, Moira January 2022 (has links)
In the early days of e-commerce, countries took to the phenomenon at very different speeds. Researchers proved the most important factors for this to be propensity for trust and the perceived risk of online purchases. Today, the use of short-term, interest-free consumer credit, also known as ‘buy now, pay later’ (BNPL), is becoming increasingly popular. This concept, too, has gained very different footing between countries. There is a gap in the research on why, but use of short-term consumer credit offline has been proved to be related to people’s trust and attitude to risk. This study reviews several macro-environmental factors previously proven to be related to technology diffusion, risk and trust, and attempts to prove their respective impact on online shopping and the use of BNPL. Data on online shopping is collected from the Global Findex Database and includes 52 countries, while data on BNPL is collected from Swedish FinTech company Klarna and includes six countries. Out of ten macro-environmental factors examined, five showed a significant positive correlation to online shopping: individualism, long-term orientation, competitiveness, ease of doing business and political stability. Two cultural factors, individualism and uncertainty avoidance, showed a promising linear relationship with BNPL use, in the opposite sign of their respective hypothesis, although only significantly for individualism. Both these cultural dimensions are documented to affect risk behaviour. These results indicate that whatever perceived risk counteracts the diffusion of online shopping, drives the use of BNPL products. We reason that BNPL cancels some of the aspects of an online purchase proven to be perceived as risky, such as card information theft. Thus, high individualism and low uncertainty avoidance means people are less bothered by the risk of online shopping, and therefore less incentivised to mitigate them using BNPL. The main limitation of this study is the sample size of the market data on the use of BNPL, as well as the included countries being too similar in many aspects. The findings are useful for FinTech’s and e-commerce companies exploring new markets for expansion, and for policymakers attempting to regulate this emerging financial industry. / När e-handeln etablerade sig tog länder till sig detta teknikfenomen i olika takt. Forskare har visat att de mest betydande faktorerna som påverkar detta är ett lands inställning till tillit samt hur riskfyllt onlinehandel anses vara. Idag blir kortsiktig, räntefri konsumentkredit, även känt som ‘buy now, pay later’ (BNPL), alltmer populärt. Även detta koncept har fått olika fäste i olika länder. Det saknas forskning på varför, men offline har användningen av kortsiktig konsumentkredit visats vara relaterad till människors tillit och attityd gentemot risk. Denna studie granskar ett antal makrofaktorer som tidigare påvisats vara relaterade till spridningen av teknik, samt risk och tillit, och försöker bevisa deras respektive påverkan på e-handel och användningen av BNPL. Data på e-handel hämtas från Global Findex Database och inkluderar 52 länder, medan data på användningen av BNPL hämtas från det svenska FinTech-bolaget Klarna, och inkluderar sex länder. Utav de tio makrofaktorer som undersöktes visade fem en signifikant positiv korrelation till e-handel: individualism, långsiktighet, konkurrenskraft, affärsreglering och politisk stabilitet. Två kulturella faktorer, individualism och osäkerhetsundvikande, visade lovande linjära förhållanden med användning av BNPL, i motsatt riktning jämfört med deras respektive hypoteser, dock enbart signifikant för individualism. Båda dessa kulturella dimensioner har tidigare visats påverkarisk beteende. Dessa resultat indikerar att den uppfattade risk som motverkar spridningen av e-hande ldriver användningen av BNPL. Vi resonerar att BNPL motverkar vissa av de aspekter hos e-handel som visat sig uppfattas som riskabla, som kortbedrägeri. Alltså innebär hög individualism och lågt osäkerhetsundvikande att konsumenter är mindre besvärade av riskerna med e-handel, och därför mindre motiverade att mildra dessa risker genom att använda BNPL. Studiens huvudsakliga begränsningar är antalet marknader i data på användning av BNPL, samt att de inkluderade länderna är för lika i många aspekter. Studiens resultat är användbara för FinTechs och e-handelsbolag som letar efter nya marknader att expandera till, och för beslutsfattare som vill reglera denna växande finansiella bransch.
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Reps or agents or both: Managers' rationale behind how to organize the sales function : About the rationale of decision-makers in manufacturing companies of the Swedish prefabricated wooden house industry behind the organization of sales forces.Köhler, Florian January 2016 (has links)
Problem - Decision makers shape the structure of the sales function, but it is unclear how they go about it and why. The rationale for making certain decisions need to be analyzed in order to understand why different decision makers apply different sales strategies. Topic - The Swedish prefabricated wooden house industry consists of many actors with no clear market leader. The sales force seems to mainly consists of external sales agents (manufacturers' representatives, also called reps), though some manufacturers also employ direct sales agents at the manufacturing company. Prefabricated wooden houses corresponded to 86% of all building permits requested during 2015. Purpose - This thesis aims to explore decision-makers' rationale behind the organization of manufacturers' sales forces in the Swedish prefabricated wooden house industry. Method - Semi-structures interviews with decision makers at manufacturing companies in the Swedish prefabricated wooden house industry have been conducted in order to fulfill the purpose of this study. The empirical findings are then analyzed based on theory that has been collected through partly inductive, partly deductive approaches. Main results - Decision makers use different arguments to justify their strategies. Many different rationale applied translates into no clear pattern besides the one that there seems to be no clear pattern. Arguments for a rationale decision are given without analytical proof for an assumption. Some interviewees are in essence for an integrated sales force, though might also work with reps.
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The effects of country of origin, consumer ethnocentrism and consumer animosity on product preference and willingness to buyDing, Qing Shan January 2013 (has links)
This study's primary aim is to explain Urban Adult Chinese Consumers' preference between foreign and Chinese products. It examines how Country of Origin (COO), Consumer Ethnocentrism (CE) and Consumer Animosity (CA) influence Urban Adult Chinese Consumers' product preference and willingness to buy. The existing knowledge is divided on this issue. By reviewing the relevant literature, it is clear that there are two completely different approaches of investigating the impact of COO on Chinese consumers. The researcher of this current study classified the two opposing methods as 'the simplistic approach' and 'the cautious approach'. Studies follow 'the simplistic approach' firmly believe Chinese consumers overwhelmingly evaluate foreign products positively and they have a strong preference for foreign products. Research follows 'the cautious approach' argues that Chinese consumers' complexity and internal differences cannot be ignored, some of them prefer Chinese products and they cannot be simply considered as in favour of foreign products. Past studies all concluded that Chinese consumers hold low to moderate level of CE beliefs. However, two investigations concluded Chinese consumers harbour strong animosity towards the Japanese. This study follows the philosophical understanding of pragmatism. The research questions are the most important factors that determine the research strategy and quantitative and qualitative methods can complement each other to address the research problem. This study employs a concurrent embedded mixed methods research strategy that consists of a street survey and semi-structured interviews. Due to the distribution pattern of the quantitative data, this study used non-parametric analysis methods including: Chi-Square Test for Independence, Spearman's Rank Order Correlations, Mann-Whitney U test and Kruskal-Wallis Test. The qualitative section of the investigation focuses on four issues: how Urban Adult Chinese Consumers (UACC) determine whether a product is foreign or Chinese, sources and background of animosity, the impact of domestic alternatives and areas for Chinese products to improve. This study discovered that UACC's preference between foreign and Chinese products remain divided. They cannot be simply considered overwhelmingly in favour of foreign products or prefer Chinese products. For those UACC have a preference for foreign products, quality and design are the main two reasons. Desire to support China's domestic industry and patriotism are the main driving forces behind some UACC's preference of Chinese products. UACC holds low to moderate level of CE beliefs, which suggests they are worldminded consumers that capable of evaluate foreign products based on merits, without strong negative bias. UACC have strong animosity towards the Japanese, but antagonistic sentiments towards the Americans and French are relatively low. There are complex sources of animosity and this study identified a wide range of factors that contributed to UACC's strong animosity towards the Japanese. The main area of original contribution of this study concentrates on Consumer Animosity. It discovered a wide range of sources of animosity towards the Japanese and constructed an enhanced animosity model.
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Rizikový a rozvojový kapitál / Private Equity financing in the Czech RepublicQuittek, Radim January 2010 (has links)
Diploma thesis aims to describe the current state of the Private Equity financing in the Czech Republic. This issue is viewed from two angles. The first part is devoted to macro-economic assessment of the current state of Private Equity in the Czech Republic. It aims to describe the current situation, compare it to economies with a developed private equity market and to draw recommendations that will lead to further development of private equity in our country. The focus of the second part is to characterize the Private Equity market from a microeconomic perspective. It aims to describe the functioning of the Private Equity market at the level of individual entities, the business model and analyze and compare the investment strategies of General Partners operating in the Czech Republic.
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Leveraged acquisition finance / Leveraged acquisition financeHrouda, Jiří January 2010 (has links)
Main interest of this diploma thesis is a transaction known as leveraged acquisition. The goal is to provide detailed overview of these transactions starting from history and development of leveraged acquisitions, key market participants, acquisition financing, leveraged acquisition market and its current trends and analysis of a fictional transaction using advanced financial model. Due to the limited extent of the thesis not all aspects of debt financing and modeling could have been covered in the text.
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Överreaktion på den svenska aktiemarknaden : En studie om framtida avvikelseavkastningIngels, Henrik, Nilsson, Simon January 2019 (has links)
I denna uppsats undersöks om den svenska aktiemarknaden överreagerar på historisk information över internränta på samma sätt som De Bondt och Thaler (1985) undersöker den amerikanska aktiemarknaden år 1985, vi replikerar även studien för att undersöka om liknande samband uppvisas för effektiv avkastning. Företag på den svenska aktiemarknaden undersöks och rangordnas efter deras internränta samt deras effektiva avkastning. Baserat på detta delas företagen in i två portföljer, portfölj “låg” och portfölj “hög”. Dessa två portföljer jämförs utifrån Buy and Hold Abnormal Return (BHAR) under tre olika tvåårsperioden. Resultaten visar att den svenska aktiemarknaden överreagerar på historisk information beträffande internränta, vilket skapar ett negativt samband mellan historisk internränta och framtida avkastning som en följd av över- och undervärdering av aktier. Dessa resultat är i linje med de presenterade för den amerikanska aktiemarknaden av De Bondt och Thaler och innebär en möjlighet för investerare på den svenska aktiemarknaden till avvikelseavkastning. För historisk effektiv avkastning hittas dock inget liknande samband med framtida avvikelseavkastning.
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Contribuições para o processo decisório estratégico de fazer ou comprar: um estudo exploratório no contexto químico brasileiro / Strategic make-or-buy decision process: contributions from an exploratory study in the Brazilian chemical industryFaçanha, Sandra Lilian de Oliveira 21 September 2007 (has links)
A presente pesquisa tem como principal tema a decisão estratégica de fazer ou comprar no contexto do setor químico. Apesar de ser um tema relativamente recorrente, o foco da literatura neste tipo de pesquisa tem sido no contexto da indústria automotiva e/ou eletroeletrônica. Indaga-se, então, se existe aderência entre os modelos teóricos e o que ocorre nas empresas do contexto químico brasileiro. O desenvolvimento teórico desta pesquisa teve por base uma compilação dos principais modelos de fazer ou comprar apresentados pela literatura desde final da década de 1980. O desenvolvimento empírico teve por base uma pesquisa qualitativa, predominantemente exploratória, baseada na técnica de estudo de casos múltiplos, contando com uma amostra de duas empresas de grande porte no contexto químico brasileiro. Foi verificado que existe um razoável nível de aderência entre o que preconiza a literatura e o que é feito nas empresas pesquisadas, mas existem algumas contribuições relevantes que podem ser consideradas para os modelos de fazer ou comprar existentes na literatura. / The main theme of this research is the strategic decision making process associated with make-or-buy decisions. Said theme has been developed in the literature with primary focus on automotive and hardware industries, not chemical industry, what leads to the main question of this research: what is the adherence level between the literature and the actual behavior of the chemical industry, when going through this type of strategic decision making process? The literature research development was primarily based on a compilation of different makeor- buy decision models which have been presented by the literature since late eighties. The empirical research development was based on an exploratory qualitative approach, with the aide of multiple case studies techniques on a small sample of two large Brazilian chemical enterprises. The main result indicates a reasonable level of adherence to what the literature has presented so far, however there are other important aspects that should be taken as relevant contributions from the empirical research to the existing make-or-buy decision process models.
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