Barrier islands serve as valuable resources for coastal communities by reducing backbarrier flooding, providing wildlife habitat, and creating local economic activity through opportunities for recreation and tourism. Because the benefits of these islands are linked to their morphology, coastal resource planners must consider what management alternatives will maximize these benefits, considering both short- and long-term goals. Recent advances in long-term computational modeling of barrier island, marsh, and lagoon systems have created opportunities for gaining additional insights into the morphodynamics of these systems, which may help planners make better-informed coastal management decisions. In this series of studies, a recently developed long-term barrier-marsh-lagoon model is evaluated to better understand system morphodynamics and applied to a real barrier island system in the mid-Atlantic to understand its vulnerabilities and the potential impacts of management alternatives. In the first study, a comprehensive review of advances in barrier island morphodynamic modeling was presented. In the second study, a global sensitivity analysis method, the Sobol method, was used to explore the parameter space of the barrier-marsh-lagoon model. The significant influence of initial barrier geometry, the combination of parameters required for short-term drowning to occur, and the significant role of tidal dispersion on backbarrier sediment dynamics were morphodynamic insights drawn from this study. In the third study, five global sensitivity analysis methods were evaluated based on their ability to rank parameters, converge to stable results, and their reliability. Groups of the most significant parameters were generally identified by all methods; however, the Morris method exceeded all others in terms of performance, especially its ability to converge and its reliability. VARS performed second best, on average, with better convergence and reliability results than the Sobol method, and with lower simulation counts. In the fourth study, the long-term model was applied to a mid-Atlantic barrier island and used to assess the island's vulnerabilities to sea level rise, overwash, and the impact of coastal management alternatives. Thin-layer placement and beach nourishment were found to be effective at sustaining the marsh and minimizing island retreat, respectively. / Doctor of Philosophy / Barrier islands help coastal communities by reducing flooding, providing wildlife habitat, and creating local economic activity through opportunities for recreation and tourism. Because the benefits of these islands are linked to their form, decision-makers must think about how to manage these islands to help the community both now and in the future. Recent advances in computer modeling of barrier islands, and the adjacent marshes and lagoons, over decades to hundreds of years, have created opportunities for us to learn more about how these systems behave over time, which may help planners make better-informed coastal management decisions. In this series of studies, a recently developed computer model of the barrier island, marsh, and lagoon is evaluated to learn how the system changes over time and applied to a real barrier island system in the mid-Atlantic to understand its vulnerabilities and the potential impacts of management alternatives. In the first study, a comprehensive review of advances in computer modeling of barrier island changes over time was presented. In the second study, the impact of the model parameters and their combinations with one another was explored using the Sobol global sensitivity analysis method, which is widely considered to be the standard method in practice. The significant influence of initial barrier geometry, the combination of parameters required for the barrier to be overcome by sea level in the short-term, and the significant role of sediment delivered behind the island through tidal inlets were significant insights into the system behavior that were drawn from this study. In the third study, five global sensitivity analysis methods were evaluated based on their ability to rank parameters, the number of computer simulations that were required, the ability of a method to arrive at a conclusive answer, and the consistency of a method in providing an answer. Groups of the most significant parameters were generally identified by all methods; however, the Morris method exceeded all others in terms of its ability to find conclusive and consistent answers due to its ability to identify unimportant parameters. VARS performed second best, on average, with better ability to find conclusive and consistent answers with fewer computer simulations than Sobol. In the fourth study, the long-term computer model was applied to a mid-Atlantic barrier island and used to assess the island's vulnerabilities to sea level rise, overwash (when water flows over the dunes), and the impact of coastal management alternatives. Placing thin layers of additional sediment on top of the marsh platforms and extending the shoreline toward the ocean by placing additional sediment on the beach were found to be effective at sustaining the marsh and minimizing movement of the barrier island landward, respectively.

Thesis (PhD (Geography and Environmental Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In South Africa the government’s progress in developing policy in support of people-centred Integrated Coastal Management (ICM), as expressed in the Coastal Policy and the Integrated Coastal Management Act, is commended. However several challenges pertaining to policy implementation remain which constitute the primary need for this research. Indeed, South Africa already has many pieces of the ICM implementation puzzle, but a structured framework or model to assist in achieving a workable, integrated system is still lacking. The aim of this research is to design an implementation model for ICM within the South African context and to propose a novel and innovative generic process for the design and refinement of such models. This aim is achieved by addressing four research questions, namely: (i) Can contextual, country-specific knowledge be harnessed to design a prototype ICM implementation model for South Africa?; (ii) Is the prototype design workable (or compatible) in the existing coastal marine statutory and governance system of South Africa (i.e. a practical validation)?; (iii) Is the prototype model for South Africa scientifically credible and how can insights into the uniformities contributing to improved integrated environmental management (IEM) and ICM be applied to assess such credibility as well as inform refinements to the model (i.e. a theoretical validation)?; and (iv) Can a generic process for the design and refinement of country-specific implementation models be derived from the research methodology applied in this study? Design science was selected as the primary strategy of inquiry for this study and a mixed-methods approach was used, claiming that the specific focus is real-world practice. Qualitative and quantitative methods are used to execute this research. This research demonstrates a method where experience and country-specific knowledge are harnessed to design a prototype ICM implementation model for South Africa and, in doing so, experientially capturing important emerging paradigms for improved ICM implementation – as identified in the scientific literature – namely the ecosystem-based management, spatial planning and cooperative environmental governance paradigms. In the prototype design, the ecosystem-based management and spatial planning paradigms are combined with traditional problems- or issues-based approaches, applied in many of the earlier ICM models. Personal experience also confirmed the importance of informed and well-established actor involvement in coastal management (cooperative environmental management) which manifested in the inclusion of the important avenues of actor involvement (i.e. the support elements) in the prototype model. Moreover, South Africa’s sector-based governance system is accommodated in the design by anchoring the management programmes component (remaining largely sector-based) between the resource vision, objectives and zoning component and the monitoring and evaluation component, implying that management programmes remain grounded in an ecosystem-based approach and subservient to the agreed vision and objectives, and needs of the coastal ecosystem. A practical validation, using the management of land-based activities as case study, reveals that approaches to coastal management in South Africa, grounded in the current statutory framework of the country, can largely be aligned with the approach proposed in the prototype implementation model. Indeed it is inefficiency or a lack of operationalisation of existing legislation that may pose the biggest challenge for effective implementation of this model. Because the prototype model is designed to accommodate sectorbased management programmes, it can be extended to accommodate sectors or activities other than those presented in the case study, such as conservation, transportation (shipping) and fisheries. Consequently, the prototype model can be applied in South Africa without any substantive adaptation of the existing statutory framework. Clearly, the challenge of effectively operationalising existing statutes remains. A critical review of relevant scientific literature provides information on and understanding of uniformities in IEM, the broader domain within which ICM is nested, using the key paradigms that contribute significantly to the improved implementation of IEM, to express such uniformities. It became apparent from studying the evolution of ICM over the last two decades that many of the key paradigms that significantly contribute to improved implementation of IEM have also proved valuable in the implementation of ICM. The insight gained from scientific literature was applied in determining fourteen evaluation criteria with which to assess of the scientific credibility of the prototype design. The subsequent assessment of the prototype design confirmed that the collective learning in IEM (and ICM) implementation over the last two decades is consolidated in this prototype design, apart from two aspects, namely scientific support networks and sustainable financial support. These were not initially defined as key components for ICM implementation in South Africa, but in retroflection proved to be valid; South Africa has established independent scientific networks outside the realm of government that coordinate scientific research in support of coastal management, and the explicit recognition of these scientific support networks in the prototype model will highlight their importance to ICM. Also, the inclusion of a sustainable financial support mechanism as a key component in the model will significantly enhance the importance and necessity of having a sound funding strategy associated with ICM implementation in South Africa. Considering the prototype design and its practical and theoretical validation, two interdependent but distinctive adaptive cycles emerged. The refined model therefore incorporates these dual, adaptive cycles coined the resource and actor cycles. The resource cycle is much in alignment with the original components of the prototype design, but a distinct modification is the inclusion of the demarcation of the geographical boundaries of coastal management units as a separate component in the model. In essence, the components in the actor cycle represent the key actor groups involved in the governance system for ICM. These components reflect the original support elements in the prototype design but include the two additional components identified in the theoretical validation, namely scientific support and financial support mechanisms. The revised model with its dual, adaptive cycles contributes an implementation perspective to the growing body of scientific literature on social-ecological systems. In this literature, the ecological system is viewed as intricately linked with and affected by the social system as depicted by the interlinked resource and actor cycles of the revised model. Further, a practical and novel three-step generic process for the design and refinement of country-specific ICM implementation models is proposed, based on the design-science approach applied in this study. First, the process involves the design of a prototype model, primarily based on local knowledge within the countryspecific context. Second, the process entails dual validation procedures, namely an empirical validation and theoretical validations. Finally, the outcome of the validation process is used to refine and improve the prototype design. Further, the refined model design proposed in this study is posed as a suitable prototype design for countries with similar sector-based coastal management milieus to South Africa. The research reported here does not offer a complete solution to the identified problem as there are manifold angles from which to approach effective and sustainable ICM. In this study an implementation angle was chosen, more specifically from a practical environmental management perspective that recognises important economic and social elements and interactions. Opportunities exist for researchers in other expert fields to investigate ICM policy implementation in South Africa from their perspectives. For example, ICM can also be viewed from purely economic, public administration, social or educational stances. In particular, techniques such as science mapping could be used to identify whether paradigms exist that constitute uniformities in IEM and ICM in addition to the ten key paradigms studied in the research. Any new characteristics deriving from the analysis of the additional paradigms can then be used to refine the evaluation criteria for the assessment of the scientific credibility of ICM implementation models. Knowledge gained and innovations made in such studies can be integrated into the ICM implementation model presented here to continuously improve its operationalisation. This research provides two main products, namely a workable and scientifically sound implementation model for ICM in the South African context and a generic process for the design and refinement of countryspecific ICM implementation models, both requiring adaptive management approaches. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In Suid-Afrika is die regering se vordering in die ontwikkeling van beleid ter ondersteuning van volksgesentreerde Geïntegreerde kusbestuur, (GKB), soos verwoord in die Kusbeleid en die Geïntegreerde Kusbestuurwet, prysenswaardig. Daar is egter nog verskeie uitdagings met betrekking tot die uitvoering van beleid wat neerkom op die primêre behoefte vir hierdie navorsing. Suid-Afrika het inderdaad reeds baie stukkies van die GKB-implementeringslegkaart, maar 'n gestruktureerde raamwerk of model om te help met die daarstelling van ‘n werkbare, geïntegreerde stelsel ontbreek nog. Die doel van hierdie navorsing is om 'n implementeringsmodel vir GKB te ontwerp binne die Suid- Afrikaanse konteks en 'n nuwe en innoverende algemene proses vir die ontwerp en verfyning van sulke modelle voor te stel. Hierdie doelstelling is bereik deur vier navorsingsvrae aan te spreek, naamlik: (i) Kan kontekstuele, land-spesifieke kennis ingespan word om ‘n prototipe GKB-implementeringsmodel vir Suid- Afrika te ontwerp? (ii) Is die prototipe-ontwerp werkbaar binne (of vergelykbaar met) die bestaande kusmariene statutêre- en bestuursstelsel van Suid-Afrika (d.w.s. ‘n praktiese validasie)? (iii) Is die prototipemodel vir Suid-Afrika wetenskaplik-geloofwaardig en hoe kan insig in die eenvormighede wat bydra tot verbeterde geïntegreerde omgewingsbestuur (GOB) en GKB toegepas word om sodanige geloofwaardigheid te bepaal, asook die verfyning van die model in te lig (d.w.s. ‘n teoretiese validasie)?; en (iv) Kan 'n algemene proses vir die ontwerp en verfyning van landspesifieke implementeringsmodelle afgelei word van die navorsingsmetodiek wat in hierdie studie toegepas is? Ontwerpwetenskap is gekies as die primêre strategie van ondersoek vir hierdie studie en 'n gemengde-metode benadering is gebruik, met die aanspraak dat die spesifieke fokus werklike wêreldspraktyk is. Kwalitatiewe en kwantitatiewe metodes word gebruik om hierdie navorsing uit te voer. Hierdie navorsing demonstreer 'n metode waar eie ervaring en land-spesifieke kennis ingespan is om 'n prototipe GKB-implementeringsmodel vir Suid-Afrika te ontwerp, en in die proses is belangrike opkomende paradigmas vir verbeterde GKB-implementering – soos geïdentifiseer in die wetenskapsliteratuur – ondervindelik vasgevang, naamlik die ekostelsel-gebaseerde bestuur, ruimtelike beplanning en samewerkende omgewingbestuur paradigmas. In die prototipe-ontwerp, is die ekosisteem-gebaseerde bestuurs-en ruimtelike beplanning paradigmas met tradisionele probleem- of uitkoms-gebaseerde benaderings gekombineer – soos toegepas in baie van die vorige GKB-modelle. Persoonlike ondervinding het ook die belangrikheid van ingeligte en goed gevestigde akteursbetrokkenheid in kusbestuur (samewerkende omgewingsbestuur) bevestig wat uitgeloop het op die insluiting van die belangrike roetes van akteursbetrokkenheid (d.w.s die ondersteuningselemente) in die prototipe-model. Verder is Suid-Afrika se sektorgebaseerde bestuurstelsel geakkommodeer in die ontwerp deur die Programbestuurskomponent (grootliks sektorgebaseerd) te anker tussen die hulpbron visie, doelwitte en sonerings komponent en die monitering en evaluering komponent, wat impliseer dat die bestuursprogramme gegrond bly binne 'n ekosisteem-gebaseerde benadering en ondergeskik bly aan ooreengekomde visie en doelwitte, en behoeftes van die kusekosisteem. 'n Praktiese validasie, waar die bestuur van land-gebaseerde aktiwiteite as gevallestudie gebruik word, toon dat die kusbestuursbenadering in Suid-Afrika, gegrond op die huidige statutere raamwerk van die land, grootliks in lyn gebring kan word met die benadering soos voorgestel in die prototipe implementeringsmodel. Inderdaad dit is die onbevoegdheid of 'n gebrek aan operasionalisering van die bestaande wetgewing wat die grootste uitdaging vir die doeltreffende implementering van hierdie model inhou. Omdat die prototipemodel ontwerp is om sektorgebaseerde bestuursprogramme te akkommodeer, kan dit uitgebrei word na ander sektore of aktiwiteite as dié wat in die gevallestudie getoon is, soos bewaring, vervoer (skeepsvervoer) en vissery. Gevolglik kan die prototipe-model toegepas word in Suid-Afrika sonder enige substantiewe aanpassing van die bestaande statutêre raamwerk. Duidelik, die effektiewe operasionaliseer van bestaande wette bly ‘n uitdaging. 'n Kritiese oorsig van die toepaslike wetenskapsliteratuur verskaf inligting oor, en begrip van, die ooreenstemmings in GOB, die breër gebied waarbinne GKB ingebed is, deur gebruik te maak van die sleutelparadigmas wat ‘n beduidende bydrae tot die verbetering van die implementering van GOB maak. Dit het duidelik geword uit die bestudering van die evolusie van GKB oor die laaste vier dekades dat baie van die sleutelparadigmas wat bydra tot verbeterde implementering van GOB ook waardevol blyk te wees in die uitvoering van die GKB. Die insig verkry uit wetenskapliksliteratuur is aangewend om die veertien evalueringsmaatstawwe saam te stel vir die beoordeling van die wetenskaplike geloofwaardigheid van die prototipe-ontwerp. Die daaropvolgende beoordeling van die prototipe-ontwerp het bevestig dat die kollektiewe kennis in GOB (en GKB) implementering oor die afgelope twee dekades in hierdie prototipe ontwerp gekonsolideer is, behalwe vir twee aspekte, naamlik wetenskapsondersteuningsnetwerke en volhoubare finansiële ondersteuning. Dit was aanvanklik nie gedefinieer as belangrike komponente vir GKBimplementering in Suid-Afrika nie, maar het in heroorweging tog geldig geblyk te wees; Suid-Afrika het onafhanklike wetenskapsnetwerke wat wetenskapsnavorsing ter ondersteuning van kusbestuur buite die regeringsraamwerk koördineer en die uitdruklike erkenning van hierdie wetenskapsondersteuningsnetwerke binne die prototipe-model sal die belangrikheid daarvan in GKB beklemtoon. Ook, die insluiting van 'n volhoubare finansiële ondersteuningsmeganisme as 'n sleutel komponent in die model, sal die belangrikheid en noodsaaklikheid om ‘n 'n gesonde finansiële strategie wat verband hou met GKB-implementering in Suid- Afrika daar te stel, aansienlik verhoog. Na oorweging van die prototipe-ontwerp en die praktiese en teoretiese validasies het twee interafhanklike, maar kenmerkende aanpasbare siklusse te voorskyn gekom. Die verfynde model sluit dus hierdie dubbele, aanpasbare siklusse in, genaamd die hulpbron- en akteurssiklusse. Die hulpbronsiklus is meestal in ooreenstemming met die oorspronklike komponente van die prototipe-ontwerp, maar ’n duidelike verandering is die insluiting van die afbakening van kusbestuureenheidsgrense as 'n aparte komponent in die model. In wese verteenwoordig die komponente binne die akteurssiklus die sleutel-akteursgroepe wat betrokke is in die GKB-bestuurstelsel. Hierdie komponente reflekteer die oorspronklike ondersteuningselemente binne die prototipe-ontwerp maar sluit die twee addisionele komponente wat in die teoretiese validasie geïdentifiseer is in, naamlik wetenskaplike ondersteuning en finansiële ondersteuningsmeganismes. Die hersiende model met die twee interafhanklike, aanpasbare siklusse dra ’n implementeringsperspektief by tot die groeiende liggaam van wetenskapliksliteratuur rondom sosiaalekologiese stelsels. In hierdie literatuur word die ekologiese stelsel gesien as intrinsiek gekoppel aan en geaffekteer deur die sosiale stelsel, soos voorgestel in die intergekoppelde hulpbron- en akteurssiklusse in die hersiende model. Verder is 'n praktiese en nuwe, generiese drie-stap-proses vir die ontwerp en verfyning van land-spesifieke GKB- implementeringsmodelle voorgestel, gebaseer op die ontwerp-wetenskaplike benadering wat in hierdie studie toegepas is. Eerstens behels die proses die ontwerp van 'n prototipe-model, hoofsaaklik gebaseer op plaaslike kennis binne die land-spesifieke konteks. Tweedens behels die proses dubbele validasie-prosedures, naamlik 'n empiriese validasie en ‘n teoretiese validasie. Ten slotte word die resultaat van die validasieprosedures gebruik om die prototipe-ontwerp te verfyn en te verbeter. Verder word die verfynde modelontwerp wat in hierdie studie voorgestel word, gereken as ‘n geskikte prototipe-ontwerp vir lande met soortgelyke sektorgebaseerde kusbestuursmilieus as Suid-Afrika. Die navorsing wat hier aangebied word is nie 'n volledige oplossing vir die geïdentifiseerde probleem nie, aangesien daar verskeie hoeke is waaruit doeltreffende en volhoubare GKB benader kan word. In hierdie studie is 'n implementeringshoek gekies, meer spesifiek 'n praktiese omgewingsbestuur perspektief waarbinne belangrike ekonomiese en sosiale elemente en interaksies erken word. Opwindende geleenthede bestaan vir navorsers binne ander kundigheidsvelde om GKB-beleidsimplementering in Suid-Afrika te ondersoek vanuit hulle perspektiewe. Byvoorbeeld, GKB kan ook ondersoek word vanuit suiwer ekonomiese, publieke administrasie, sosiale of opvoedkundige oogpunte. Meer spesifiek, tegnieke soos wetenskapskatering kan gebruik word om vas te stel of daar paradigmas bestaan wat neerkom op eenvorminghede binne GOB en GKB, benewens die tien sleutelparadigmas wat in hierdie navorsing bestudeer is. Enige nuwe eienskappe afgelei van die analise van die addisionele paradigmas kan dan gebruik word om die evalueringsmaatstawwe vir die asessering van die wetenskaplike geloofwaardigheid van GKB implementeringsmodelle te verfyn. Kennis en innovasie van sulke studies kan opgeneem word in die GKB-implementeringsmodel wat hier aangebied word om voortdurend die operasionalisering daarvan te verbeter. Die navorsing lewer twee hoofprodukte, naamlik ’n werkbare en wetenskaplike geloofwaardige GKBimplementeringsmodel binne die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks en 'n algemene proses vir die ontwerp en verfyning van land-spesifieke implementeringsmodelle vir GKB beide met aanpasbare bestuur as vereiste.

Thesis (MScEng (Civil Engineering))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / Multi purpose reefs are a relatively new concept that incorporate functionalities of beach stabilization, breakwater/seawall protection, biological enhancement and recreational amenity. Economic benefits increase their attractiveness. There is, however, some degree of uncertainty in design guidelines as to the predictability of each of these aspects. With regards to recreational amenity enhancement, one such uncertainty exists in the ability to predict the reef configuration required to give a certain degree of surfability of a reef, and more specifically, to predict the shape of a plunging wave. An extensive survey of the relevant literature has been conducted to provide a background on multi purpose reefs and the uncertainties in predicting the success of multi purpose reefs in achieving their design objectives. A study of wave breaking has been done, along with an analysis of existing breaker height and breaker depth formulae. The effects of bottom friction, refraction, shoaling, winds currents and varying water level on wave breaking has been addressed. Surfability aspects were reviewed including a definition of breaking intensity which is defined by the wave profile in terms of vortex shape parameters, and other surfability parameters that influence the surfability of a reef. Background on numerical modelling methods has been given, along with a description and some trial runs of a new and promising method, Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics. Numerical models were run using the open source SPHysics package in order to assess the applicability of the package in measuring vortex shape parameters. The SPHysics package is, however, still in a stage of development, and is not yet suitable for reef studies with very long domains and with high numbers of particles (required for sufficient resolution in the plunging vortex). A theoretical examination was done on the relevant literature in order to gain an insight into the dynamics affecting the development of the plunging vortex shape. A case study of a natural surf reef was carried out in order to give qualitative estimation of the wave dynamics and reef structure required to give good quality surfing waves and high breaking intensity. The West- Cowell surfing reef factor was used as a tool in predicting wave focusing effects of a naturally occurring reef. Extensive two dimensional physical model laboratory studies were conducted in order to quantify the effects of the reef configuration and wave parameters on breaking intensity. Design guidelines were developed in order to assist in the prediction of breaking intensity for reefs constructed with surfing amenity enhancement as one of their design objectives. The results show that large underwater topographic features can significantly affect the shape and size of incoming waves. Refraction, focusing and shoaling can transform ordinary waves into waves deemed suitable for surfing. The West-Cowell surfing reef factor gives reasonable results outside its applicable range. The 2D physical model laboratory tests show significant variations in vortex shape parameters due to interactions between broken and unbroken waves in a wave train and also to the reflections developed in the flume. Results show that the predicted trends agree with the observations. The results also show that the junction between the seaward reef slope and the horizontal crest may have an effect on the wave shape in the form of a secondary crest between the primary crests. Design guidelines based on the results are presented, and show that breaker height formulae for smooth planar slopes show good agreement with the values of breaker heights measured in the physical model tests, and that existing breaker depth formulae show average agreement. The design guidelines could assist with more effective design of artificial reefs for surfing purposes.

Long-term perspectives on the evolution of river deltas have provided useful knowledge capable of responding to pending questions related to the ongoing climate and environmental changes. Increasing utilization pressure on delta environments has necessitated increased attention to protect the socio-economic and ecological values. As a result, multiple local initiatives have been designed, aimed at mitigating environmental deterioration and implementing adaptive measures, but many such initiatives have shown limited success. This thesis uses a case study of Save River delta in Mozambique to explore the relation between geomorphological evolution and socio-ecological system dynamics in delta environments. In addition, key environmental variables that concern the society today are highlighted and discussed in a management perspective. The results of the study show the development of Save River delta from the mid-Holocene to the present. The geomorphological settings of the delta suggest a faulted coastline over which subsequent deposition of fluvial sediments has formed a protruding delta front. Between c. 3000 and 1300 years ago, fine-grained sediments accumulated on top of the delta-front in the proximal part of the delta. This type of material was deposited under intertidal conditions and supported the formation of mangrove habitat. The geographical distribution of the mangrove deposit was driven by successive stages of back-barrier swamp formation and sea-level change as the delta evolved. From c. 1300 years ago, the river delta started to receive fluvial sediments from pulses of floods forming an alluvial floodplain. These sediments have accumulated mainly on the fine-grained mangrove wetland deposit. All the geomorphological features have evolved in a shoreward-shifting pattern over time. Centennial to decadal changes observed in the delta have followed a predictable geomorphological pattern, which is also part of the millennial evolution. The mangrove system, the base for the socio-economic system, is consequently strongly affected by the geomorphological development of the area. An increasing sensitivity of socio-ecological systems to environmental stressors, e.g. floods, cyclones and erosion, has motivated multiple initiatives to work towards a sustainable management of delta environments. This thesis highlights the need for interplay between geomorphology and ecology, considering both long- and short-term dynamics of delta environments. Hitherto, management initiatives have been concentrated on fragmented interventions of controlling water flow, which have disrupted the natural dynamics by obstructing the sedimentation-erosion cycle. To change this trend, coastal planners need to consider the significance of natural processes, e.g. cyclones, floods, erosion and accretion, for the long-term ecological and social sustainability of delta environments. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 1: Manuscript. Paper 2. Manuscript. Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript.</p>

A desorganização do espaço, ou a perda do potencial paisagístico se reflete nas ocupações da zona costeira, face ao aproveitamento e/ou utilização dos recursos naturais neste território, acarretando na preocupação em relação à qualidade de vida da sociedade que ai se estabeleceu. Dada a constante perda do potencial paisagístico na zona costeira e a magnitude do poder de transformação desta porção territorial, pelos planos e instrumentos de ordenamento, reforça a necessidade de uma nova reestruturação dos mecanismos de gestão e planejamento, pautados nas características intrínsecas da paisagem em que se emprega. A meta da gestão e do planejamento é introduzir e reproduzir melhorias na qualidade de vida das populações, melhorar o ordenamento espacial dos assentamentos humanos, a distribuição espacial dos empreendimentos estatais e reduzir os impactos das atividades sobre o meio. Nesta acepção a problemática se estende na formulação de políticas publicas, plano de gestão e do desenho. Este trabalho investiga o processo de transformação do território municipal de São Sebastião, através de uma cronologia de ocupação, em seguida descreve seus padrões e estruturas de natureza, para enfim avaliar o estado atual de conservação do mesmo. / São Sebastião is a seaside town in Estate of São Paulo, Brazil. This work investigates process which led to territory transformations and development of the impacts we can see nowadays, analyzing issues related to the coastal zone, the landscape and the environmental conservation. Three main development vectors are studied to explain the landscape structure: a port, road constructions and a huge Petrobrás terminal which receives and movements the major production of crude oil and derivates in Brazil. This work intents to show some fragilities and conflicts in the coastal zone as a result of the urbanization process and government policies, usually taken in many natural sensitive areas with fragile ecosystems. Finally, an evaluation is made of the main environment conservation instruments and policies related to the coasts natural resources, including the most recent law in the Estate of São Paulo: the Decreto Estadual n°49.215/04 which obligates coastal management using economic and ecologic attributes to define Zones of Use.

Este trabalho configura-se como um esforço para se discutir a inclusão da participação social na prática do Gerenciamento Costeiro Integrado. Tem como objetivo principal uma análise das associações de bairro existentes nos quatro municípios do Litoral Norte do Estado de São Paulo a fim de avaliar a atuação destas como um ator do gerenciamento costeiro integrado. A análise partiu de um contexto teórico, sobre as diferentes formas de organização da sociedade civil, entre elas os movimentos sócio ambientais e as associações de bairro. Realizou-se uma análise institucional das associações, com a identificação de seu potencial de ação como agentes do movimento sócio ambiental e de sua e efetiva participação em processos de discussão e elaboração de políticas públicas, utilizando o Litoral Norte como área de estudo. Observou-se que o principal objetivo, das 248 associações identificadas, é a busca por melhorias de infra-estrutura urbana, e que questões ambientais são marginais. Grande parcela das associações apresenta problemas estruturais e jurídicos, 96% estão com seus estatutos em desacordo com o atual Código Civil Brasileiro. Observou-se uma visão compartimentalizada e biocêntrica de meio ambiente e um entendimento praticamente inexistente de desenvolvimento sustentável. A participação em políticas públicas é pequena, o que pode ser uma evidência da falta de interesse, mobilização e/ou informações destas instituições sobre os espaços de participação pública. Conclui-se que as associações, possuem potencial para atuar na gestão da zona costeira, entretanto não atuam de fato, sendo necessário um intenso processo de fortalecimento comunitário considerando iniciativas que promovam sua motivação e capacitação. / The present study is configured as an effort to discuss the inclusion of social issues in Integrated Coastal Management practices. Its major purpose was to analyze neighborhood associations existing in the four municipalities the northern coast of São Paulo State, Brazil, in order to identify whether they participate in Integrated Coastal Management processes. The analyses started with a theoretical approach to the different forms of civil organizations, including socio environmental movements and neighborhood associations. An institutional analysis of these associations was performed, identifying their role as stakeholders in socio environmental movements and their effective participation in public policies\' discussion and elaboration processes, setting the northern coast of São Paulo State as the study area. We could observe that the main objective, considering the 248 identified associations, was the search for improvements on the urban infra-structure, with environmental problems appearing as a marginal concern. A considerable number of associations presented organizational, structural and juridical problems, 96% had their statutes in disagreement with the current Brazilian Civil Code. It was possible to note that they share a compartmentalized biocentric concept of environment and were generally unaware of the sustainable development definition. Their participation in public policies development processes was minimal, what may evidence a lack of interest, mobilization and/or information that these institutions have about forums for public and social participation. We could conclude that neighborhood associations can be potential stakeholders in coastal zone management, nevertheless they are not presently playing their role, being necessary an effort towards community empowerment, considering initiatives to promote their motivation and build their capacity for participatory processes.

A importância da Zona Costeira é historicamente reconhecida pelo homem dado seus privilegiados recursos naturais e econômicos. Estas áreas encontram-se, cada vez mais, sujeitas a pressões ambientais diversas. Consequentemente, adequar o crescimento equilibrado das atividades humanas, sem comprometer o meio ambiente, representa um desafio para a gestão ambiental da Zona Costeira. O município de Tapes, localizado na margem oeste da Lagoa dos Patos, litoral médio do Rio Grande do Sul, apresenta ecossistemas raros e de grande vulnerabilidade ambiental, que vem sendo modificados ao longo dos anos. Contudo, não existem trabalhos sobre a dinâmica territorial, a nível municipal, de forma abrangente tanto espacial quanto temporalmente, que possibilite acompanhar as transformações pela qual passou a região, e permita embasar ações futuras de gestão. Desse modo, o objetivo desse estudo é realizar uma análise ambiental integrada da paisagem do município de Tapes, sob um enfoque ecossistêmico. Para tanto, foi realizado um inventário do meio físico e socioeconômico, identificação dos conflitos ambientais, levantamento da cobertura e uso da terra para o ano de 1964 e 2014, analise da vulnerabilidade ambiental e reconhecimento dos sistemas ambientais. Ademais, a integração dos elementos naturais e antrópicos possibilitou avaliar o estado ambiental do município. Os resultados obtidos permitiram compreender a dinâmica, estrutura e organização do território, e representam uma importante contribuição para o planejamento territorial da região e, consequentemente, para a Gestão Integrada da Zona Costeira do Rio Grande do Sul. / The coastal zone importance is historically recognized by humanity due to it privileged natural and economic resources. These areas are susceptible to several environmental pressures. Consequently, adjust the increase of human activities without damaging the environment is a challenge for coastal management. The city of Tapes, located on the western shore of Lagoa dos Patos, on the middle coast of Rio Grande do Sul, has unusual and vulnerable ecosystems, which has been modified over the years. However, there are no data about the territorial dynamics, in an adequate spatial and temporal scale, to monitoring the evolution of the landscape and support coastal management. Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyze the landscape of the city of Tapes, under an ecosystem approach. For this purpose, the methodology used was an analysis of physical and socioeconomic characteristics, identification of environmental conflicts, land use and cover survey for the years 1964 and 2014, analysis of environmental vulnerability and environmental systems. Furthermore, the integration of natural and anthropic elements enabled to evaluate the city environmental status. The results allowed an understanding the dynamics, structure and organization of the territory. And, represent an important contribution to the territorial planning of the region and, consequently, to the Integrated Management of Rio Grande do Sul Coastal Zone.

A desorganização do espaço, ou a perda do potencial paisagístico se reflete nas ocupações da zona costeira, face ao aproveitamento e/ou utilização dos recursos naturais neste território, acarretando na preocupação em relação à qualidade de vida da sociedade que ai se estabeleceu. Dada a constante perda do potencial paisagístico na zona costeira e a magnitude do poder de transformação desta porção territorial, pelos planos e instrumentos de ordenamento, reforça a necessidade de uma nova reestruturação dos mecanismos de gestão e planejamento, pautados nas características intrínsecas da paisagem em que se emprega. A meta da gestão e do planejamento é introduzir e reproduzir melhorias na qualidade de vida das populações, melhorar o ordenamento espacial dos assentamentos humanos, a distribuição espacial dos empreendimentos estatais e reduzir os impactos das atividades sobre o meio. Nesta acepção a problemática se estende na formulação de políticas publicas, plano de gestão e do desenho. Este trabalho investiga o processo de transformação do território municipal de São Sebastião, através de uma cronologia de ocupação, em seguida descreve seus padrões e estruturas de natureza, para enfim avaliar o estado atual de conservação do mesmo. / São Sebastião is a seaside town in Estate of São Paulo, Brazil. This work investigates process which led to territory transformations and development of the impacts we can see nowadays, analyzing issues related to the coastal zone, the landscape and the environmental conservation. Three main development vectors are studied to explain the landscape structure: a port, road constructions and a huge Petrobrás terminal which receives and movements the major production of crude oil and derivates in Brazil. This work intents to show some fragilities and conflicts in the coastal zone as a result of the urbanization process and government policies, usually taken in many natural sensitive areas with fragile ecosystems. Finally, an evaluation is made of the main environment conservation instruments and policies related to the coasts natural resources, including the most recent law in the Estate of São Paulo: the Decreto Estadual n°49.215/04 which obligates coastal management using economic and ecologic attributes to define Zones of Use.

Este trabalho configura-se como um esforço para se discutir a inclusão da participação social na prática do Gerenciamento Costeiro Integrado. Tem como objetivo principal uma análise das associações de bairro existentes nos quatro municípios do Litoral Norte do Estado de São Paulo a fim de avaliar a atuação destas como um ator do gerenciamento costeiro integrado. A análise partiu de um contexto teórico, sobre as diferentes formas de organização da sociedade civil, entre elas os movimentos sócio ambientais e as associações de bairro. Realizou-se uma análise institucional das associações, com a identificação de seu potencial de ação como agentes do movimento sócio ambiental e de sua e efetiva participação em processos de discussão e elaboração de políticas públicas, utilizando o Litoral Norte como área de estudo. Observou-se que o principal objetivo, das 248 associações identificadas, é a busca por melhorias de infra-estrutura urbana, e que questões ambientais são marginais. Grande parcela das associações apresenta problemas estruturais e jurídicos, 96% estão com seus estatutos em desacordo com o atual Código Civil Brasileiro. Observou-se uma visão compartimentalizada e biocêntrica de meio ambiente e um entendimento praticamente inexistente de desenvolvimento sustentável. A participação em políticas públicas é pequena, o que pode ser uma evidência da falta de interesse, mobilização e/ou informações destas instituições sobre os espaços de participação pública. Conclui-se que as associações, possuem potencial para atuar na gestão da zona costeira, entretanto não atuam de fato, sendo necessário um intenso processo de fortalecimento comunitário considerando iniciativas que promovam sua motivação e capacitação. / The present study is configured as an effort to discuss the inclusion of social issues in Integrated Coastal Management practices. Its major purpose was to analyze neighborhood associations existing in the four municipalities the northern coast of São Paulo State, Brazil, in order to identify whether they participate in Integrated Coastal Management processes. The analyses started with a theoretical approach to the different forms of civil organizations, including socio environmental movements and neighborhood associations. An institutional analysis of these associations was performed, identifying their role as stakeholders in socio environmental movements and their effective participation in public policies\' discussion and elaboration processes, setting the northern coast of São Paulo State as the study area. We could observe that the main objective, considering the 248 identified associations, was the search for improvements on the urban infra-structure, with environmental problems appearing as a marginal concern. A considerable number of associations presented organizational, structural and juridical problems, 96% had their statutes in disagreement with the current Brazilian Civil Code. It was possible to note that they share a compartmentalized biocentric concept of environment and were generally unaware of the sustainable development definition. Their participation in public policies development processes was minimal, what may evidence a lack of interest, mobilization and/or information that these institutions have about forums for public and social participation. We could conclude that neighborhood associations can be potential stakeholders in coastal zone management, nevertheless they are not presently playing their role, being necessary an effort towards community empowerment, considering initiatives to promote their motivation and build their capacity for participatory processes.

Na atual discussão do processo de mudanças climáticas, e seus efeitos nas zonas costeiras, o presente estudo tem como objetivo ampliar o entendimento dos fatores responsáveis pelo processo erosivo estabelecido na praia do Hermenegildo, entre os anos de 1947 e 2012, através da associação de dados oceanográficos que levam a intensificação desse processo, e dados geomorfológicos tradicionais. A partir de dados de linha de costa, obtidos através de imagens de satélite, fotografias aéreas, de diferentes épocas, e dados de GPS RTK coletados in situ, foi possível caracterizar o comportamento da linha de costa da praia do Hermenegildo em micro e mesoescala. Dados de TSM, direção e intensidade dos ventos e altura de ondas, obtidos da NOAA, também foram incorporados no estudo. Ao longo de 65 anos, a taxa de retração média da linha de costa foi de 1,68 m/ano, com os maiores picos erosivos registrados entre os anos de 1996 a 2000 (6,29 m/ano) e 2005 a 2006 (5,25 m/ano). Os intervalos com as maiores taxas de recuo são coincidentes com os períodos de ocorrência de forte El Niño e anomalias na TSM. Em anos onde esses eventos são coincidentes, em mesma intensidade, foram registradas as maiores perdas por erosão. Um comparativo feito entre os dados de TSM e retração média da linha de costa apresentaram uma correlação de 80%, num cenário onde os ventos provenientes do quadrante SW são os mais significativos. Quando comparados os dados de TSM e nível médio do mar local (obtidos por modelagem), esses não apresentam correlação significativa. Contudo, quando analisados e comparados separadamente, os dados variam coincidentemente para o mesmo intervalo temporal de forma que, quando se identificou variações na TSM, observou-se também uma variação no nível. O conhecimento do comportamento da linha de costa é fundamental para fins de planejamento e ordenamento do litoral. Dessa forma, a partir do conjunto de dados, foi efetuada uma previsão da posição futura da linha de costa para os anos de 2022, 2032 e 2100, tendo como base o ano de 2012. Estas apresentaram um recuo de 8,18 m, 22,29 m e 151,57 m, respectivamente. De posse dessas informações, um mapa de probabilidades ao processo erosivo foi gerado destacando que, o setor norte do balneário é o mais suscetível à erosão. O produto cartográfico obtido, o qual contempla informações de diferentes escalas, poderá servir como uma ferramenta importante aos gestores costeiros municipais. No que diz respeito ao estabelecimento de possíveis soluções para amenizar ou mitigar a problemática da erosão, o mapa de probabilidades à erosão dará suporte ao processo de expansão do balneário, à medida que os gestores terão mapeadas as áreas de maior e menor probabilidade ao processo erosivo. / In the context of the current discussion of climate change and its effects along the coast al zones, this study aims to broaden the understanding about the responsible factors for the well established coastal erosion at Hermenegildo beach, between the years 1947 and 2012, throughout the association of oceanographic data that may have lead to its intensification, and conventional geomorphological data. Using shoreline position data, through satellite imagery, air photographs of various periods combined with GPS RTK data collected in situ, it was possible to characterize shoreline behavior at micro and medium scale. TSM, wind strength and direction as well as wave height data from NOAA, have also been incorporated to this study. Along 65 years, mean shoreline recession has been of 1.68 m/yr, with highest erosion rates registered between 1996 and 2000 (6.29 m/yr) and between 2005 and 2006 (5.25 m/yr). The highest shoreline recession values coincide with El Niño periods and with TSM anomalies. Throughout the years when these events coincided and had the same intensity, the highest erosion rates were registered. A comparison between TSM data and mean shoreline recession demonstrated a positive correlation of 80%, in a scenario where SW winds predominate. Conversely, when TSM and mean local sea level (modeled), no significant correlation was observed. Nonetheless, when compared and analyzed separately, data varied coincidently for the same time interval, that is when variations in TSM occurred, mean sea level also varied. Understanding shoreline behavior is essential for coastal planning and development. This way, using the available data it was possible to predict future shoreline position for the years 2022, 2032 and 2100, using the 2012 shoreline position as a starting point. Resulting future shoreline positions are 8.18 m, 22.29 m and 151.57 m, respectively. Based on this information, a probabilistic map of erosion risk was prepared highlighting that the northern sector of Hermenegildo is more susceptible to erosion. The resulting cartographic product, which comprises information at various scales, may be used as an important tool for local coastal managers. Regarding the establishment of possible solutions in order to mitigate the erosion problem, the erosion probability map will give support to broaden urbanization along the beach, since the coastal managers will know which area are at higher or lower risk of erosion.