Submitted by GILMAR ALVES LIMA (gilmaralveslima@gmail.com) on 2017-03-02T01:24:55Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao GilmarAlveLima Versao_Final_Pos_Banca_v2.pdf: 1259267 bytes, checksum: f8265a1e8b51deb97de3ad6305c5e196 (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Gilmar, boa tarde Para que possamos aceitar seu trabalho, por gentileza, é necessário de retire a acentuação do nome Getúlio. Outra questão, foi solicitado alteração no título de seu trabalho? Pois no protocolo entregue e em Ata, consta: O PREÇO DAS COMMODITIES IMPORTA? EFICIÊNCIA OPERACIONAL DOS BANCOS BRASILEIROS E A QUEDA RECENTE NOS PREÇOS DAS COMMODITIES. Se não houve alteração, deve estar igual a Ata. Att on 2017-03-02T19:22:40Z (GMT) / Submitted by GILMAR ALVES LIMA (gilmaralveslima@gmail.com) on 2017-03-06T09:55:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Gilmar_Alves_Lima.pdf: 1258747 bytes, checksum: b97759b1af8d57267d2b823d2f8dd0ab (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2017-03-07T00:04:07Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Gilmar_Alves_Lima.pdf: 1258747 bytes, checksum: b97759b1af8d57267d2b823d2f8dd0ab (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-07T18:39:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Gilmar_Alves_Lima.pdf: 1258747 bytes, checksum: b97759b1af8d57267d2b823d2f8dd0ab (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-01-31 / This work analyzes the effect of the recent drop in commodity prices, starting from march 2014, on the level of efficiency of Brazilian banks. The core target of this paper is to observe whether, in general, adverse shocks tend to make banks more efficient due to the restrictions that these situations impose. For this investigation, it was necessary to collect the data from the Brazilian conglomerates and independent financial institutions (except for development banks) from March 2011 to September 2016. The Risk Weighted Assets - RWA related to the exposure due to the variation of commodity prices (RWACOM) were used to ascertain the exposure to commodities throughout this time. The results indicate that the recent drop in commodity prices did not influence the gain or loss of efficiency of Brazilian banks more exposed to price changes. / Este trabalho apresenta o efeito da queda recente nos preços das commodities, ocorrida a partir de março de 2014, sobre o nível de eficiência dos bancos brasileiros. A partir dessa relação, objetiva-se verificar se, de um modo geral, os choques adversos tendem a tornar os bancos mais eficientes, dadas as restrições que eles impõem. Para essa investigação, foram coletados dados dos conglomerados e instituições financeiras independentes (exceto bancos de desenvolvimento) brasileiros durante o período de março de 2011 a setembro de 2016. Para verificar a exposição a commodities nesse período, foi utilizada a parcela do ativo ponderado pelo risco (Risk Weighted Assets - RWA) referente às exposições sujeitas à variação dos preços das commodities (RWACOM). Os resultados indicam que a queda recente nos preços das commodities não influenciou no ganho ou perda de eficiência dos bancos brasileiros mais expostos às variações nos preços.

Magister Economicae - MEcon / Pre-democratic South Africa was highly regulated by the apartheid government with the black small-scale farming community actively marginalised. Following the deregulation of the South African agricultural market came the opening up of the market to accommodate these small-scale farmers and also the introduction of South African Futures Exchange. South Africa has done well in terms of development of ICT over the past years, making it a country with characteristics of both first and third world countries. This study aims to assess the agricultural commodity exchange market and how small-scale farmers may participate more actively in the market. This study finds that though South Africa has world class ICT infrastructure this has not made it easier for small-scale farmers to enter the agricultural market and value chain. The study finds that there is little or no participation by small-scale farmers in South African Futures Exchange. It finds that mobile phones and applications may be the way forward in the efforts to ensure their participation in the commodity exchange market through provision of services such as price discovery and price risk management as is the function of South African Futures Exchange. It is also found that there is need to invest in high value agricultural products in order to benefit more from commodity exchanges.

Thesis: M.S., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1978 / Includes bibliographical references. / M.S. / M.S. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management

[pt] É consenso na teoria econômica que o aumento dos termos de troca leva a uma apreciação da taxa de câmbio real. No entanto, durante o período recente da pandemia do COVID-19, essa relação parece ter sido interrompida, pois houve um aumento significativo nos preços das commodities, mas as taxas de câmbio reais de vários países não se valorizaram correspondentemente. O objetivo deste trabalho de pesquisa é examinar as razões para esse desvio da correlação estabelecida. Eu estimo vários SVARs para países exportadores de commodities com um esquema recursivo de identificação em blocos e concluo que outros choques estruturais além do de commodities explicaram a depreciação da taxa de câmbio real no período da pandemia. Em 2020, o risco global foi o principal fator responsável pela depreciação da taxa de câmbio, enquanto em 2021 o alto risco-país, especialmente para os países emergentes, e o baixo nível da taxa de juros doméstica aparecem como os principais responsáveis por essa quebra. / [en] It is a consensus in economic theory that the increase in the terms of trade leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate. However, during the recent period of the COVID-19 pandemic, this relationship appears to have been disrupted, as there has been a significant rise in commodity prices but the real exchange rates of many countries have not appreciated correspondingly. The aim of this M.Sc. Thesis is to examine the reasons for this deviation from the established correlation. I estimate several SVARs for commodity exporting countries with a recursive block identification scheme and conclude that structural shocks other than the commodity one explained the real exchange rate depreciation in the pandemic period. In 2020, the global risk was the main factor responsible for depreciating the exchange rate, while in 2021 the high country risk, specially for emerging countries, and the low level of the domestic interest rate appear as the main factors responsible for this break.

Norrmejerier står inför förändringar vad gäller både mjölkkonsumtion och flytt av produktionen från Luleå mejeri till Umeå mejeri inom en snar framtid. Det har gett behov av ett verktyg för att snabbt kunna fatta beslut om systemet kan hantera en ökad mängd volym och antal produktkategorier. För att ta fram ett sådant verktyg skapades en matematisk optimeringsmodell uppbyggd i programvaran Python som gör det möjligt att köra programmet för olika scenarion. Modellen använder optimeringslösaren Pulp för att hitta en lösning på problemet. Den matematiska modellen baseras på Multi Commodity Flow Problem med tidsvariabel i kombination med Flow-shop scheduling och har modifierats efter systemet på Umeå mejeri. Det är en pessimistisk modell baserat på de antaganden som gjorts i rapporten. Programmet baseras på ett dygns produktion och avgör, genom att minimera den totala tiden det tar för flödet genom processen, om det finns kapacitet för en ökad produktion. Systemet i projektet är uppdelat i två subnätverk på grund av tidskomplexiteten och resultaten visar att implementering av en ytterligare produktkategori kan hanteras av båda subnätverken. En ökad volym med 10% av den befintliga kan endast hanteras av den första delen av nätverket. Det betyder att det finns tekniska begränsningar i det andra subnätverket. Genom tillägg av extra noder som kan användas till en viss straffkostnad kunde flaskhalsar identifieras och det visade sig att pastör 2P1 är en uppenbar flaskhals i systemet. Om man ökar produktionen ytterligare kan även silosarna behöva utökas för att hantera flödet. / Norrmejerier is facing changes in terms of both milk consumption and a move of the production from Luleå dairy to Umeå dairy in the near future. This has given rise to the need of a tool that quickly can make descisions about whether the system can handle an increased amount of volume and number of product categories. To produce such a tool a mathematical optimization model was created in Python which makes it possible to run the program for different scenarios. The model uses the optimization solver Pulp. The mathematical model is based on Multi Commodity Flow Problem with time variable combined with Flow-shop scheduling and has been modified according to the system at Umeå dairy. Based on the assumptions made in the report it is a pessimistic model. The program is based on one day's production and determines by minimizing the total time it takes for the flow to pass through the system, to see if there is enough capacity for increased production. The system in the project is divided into two subnetworks due to the time complexity and the results show that implementation of an additional product category can be handled by both subnetworks. An increased volume of 10% of the existing volume can only be handled by the first part of the network. This means that there are technical limitations in the second subnetwork. By adding extra nodes that can be used for a certain penalty cost, bottlenecks could be identified and it turned out that Pasteur 2P1 is an obvious bottleneck in the system. If the production increases further the silos may also need to be expanded to handle the flow in the system.

No description available.

The aim of this thesis is a development of a new class of financial models with random parameters, which are computationally efficient and have the same level of performance as existing ones. In particular, this research is threefold. I have studied the evolution of storable commodity and commodity futures prices in time using a new random parameter model coupled with a Kalman filter. Such a combination allows one to forecast arbitrage-free futures prices and commodity spot prices one step ahead. Another direction of my research is a new volatility model, where the volatility is a random variable. The main advantage of this model is high calibration speed compared to the existing stochastic volatility models such as the Bates model or the Heston model. However, the performance of the new model is comparable to the latter. Comprehensive numerical studies demonstrate that the new model is a very competitive alternative to the Heston or the Bates model in terms of accuracy of matching option prices or computing hedging parameters. Finally, a new futures pricing model for electricity futures prices was developed. The new model has a random volatility parameter in its underlying process. The new model has less parameters, as compared to two-factor models for electricity commodity pricing with and without jumps. Numerical experiments with real data illustrate that it is quite competitive with the existing two-factor models in terms of pricing one step ahead futures prices, while being far simpler to calibrate. Further, a new heuristic for calibrating two-factor models was proposed. The new calibration procedure has two stages, offline and online. The offline stage calibrates parameters under a physical measure, while the online stage is used to calibrate the risk-neutrality parameters on each iteration of the particle filter. A particle filter was used to estimate the values of the underlying stochastic processes and to forecast futures prices one step ahead. The contributory material from two chapters of this thesis have been submitted to peer reviewed journals in terms of two papers: • Chapter 4: “A fast calibrating volatility model” has been submitted to the European Journal of Operational Research. • Chapter 5: “Electricity futures price models : calibration and forecasting” has been submitted to the European Journal of Operational Research.

Thesis (MA)-- Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This thesis provides a critical discussion of, and motivation for, my jewellery practice, in which fat from the human body is transformed into adornment. Drawing on Julia Kristeva’s theory of ‘abjection’, this research scrutinises the grotesque status of body substances in the modern media, with the intention of changing viewer reactions to these substances from repulsion to aesthetic enjoyment. I consider the influence of popular culture, where idealised bodies are promoted as ‘better’ than non-normative body types, and then consider how (or whether) the abject remainders of the ‘ideal body’ can successfully be refigured as adornment. In order to situate my practical Masters work in the wider field of contemporary avant-garde jewellery practice, I study the work of select jewellers, who also refer to, or use, body substances in critical ways in their work. Through this, I hope to scrutinise both normative notions of the body and of jewellery as adornment. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie tesis dien as ’n kritiese bespreking van en motivering vir my praktiese juwelierswareontwerp, waarin vet afkomstig van die menslike liggaam verander word in versiering. Die navorsing gebruik Julia Kristeva se teorie van ‘abjection’ om die groteske status wat liggaamstowwe in die moderne media het, uit te pluis, met die doel om die toeskouer se reaksie op hierdie stowwe van afkeer in estetiese genot te verander. Ek oorweeg die invloed van populêre kultuur waarbinne geïdealiseerde liggame as ‘beter’ as nie-normatiewe liggaamstipes aangebied word. Ek kyk verder na hoe (en of) die vernederende (‘abject’) oorblyfsels van die ‘ideale liggaam’ suksesvol as versiering omvorm kan word. Om my praktiese werk vir die Meestersgraad binne die wyer veld van kontemporêre avant-garde juwelierswarepraktyk te vestig, ondersoek ek ook werk van sekere juweliers wat ook liggaamstowwe in hulle werk gebruik, of daarna verwys. Hierdeur hoop ek om die normatiewe idees van beide die liggaam en juweliersware as versiering uit te pluis.

The flaneur (“stroller, dawdler, leisurer, idler”) is an aesthetic and historical figure that arose in nineteenth-century Paris as a by-product of metropolitan growth. Walter Benjamin brought the flaneur to the consideration of the twentieth-century philosophical thought by choosing the figure as his conceptual persona. The goal of this work is to answer the question “who is the flaneur?” in an expansive way, tracing this figure’s conceptual life from its origins, through the flaneur’s role in Benjamin’s thought, to its contemporary state of being dispersed into the multitude. Building on the works of Benjamin, Charles Baudelaire, Henri Bergson, Georg Simmel, Gilles Deleuze and Felix Guattari, Patrick Keiller, Julia Kristeva, A. Kiarina Kordela, Paulo Virno, Tiqqun and others, the flaneur serves as a prism to critically viewing contemporary phenomena. The scope of this work encompasses the prevalence of metropolitan life and experience, disintegration of authenticity and exceptionality, rapid production and appropriation of the surplus by Capital, perception of time and duration, commodity fetishism, increasingly general attunements of alienation, anxiety and melancholy. While investigating the realities and conditons of contemporary existence, one can producitvely turn to the flaneur and his contemporary forms revolutionary qualities: potential for resistance and weakness for recuperation. / Flaneur (“vaikštinėtojas, bastūnas, dykinėtojas“) – estetinė ir istorinė figūra, atsiradusi XIX a. Paryžiuje kaip metropolio plėtros šalutinis produktas. Walteris Benjaminas iškėlė flaneur į XX a. filosofinę mintį, pasirinkdamas šią figūrą savo „konceptualiuoju personažu“. Šio darbo tikslas – išplėstai atsakyti į klausimą „kas yra flaneur?“, sekant šios figūros konceptualų kelią nuo kilmės, per jos vaidmenį Benjamino apmąstymuose, iki dabartinės flaneur būklės, kurioje jis yra išskydęs į daugybę kaip pastarosios bruožas. Remiantis W. Benjamino, Charles‘io Baudelaire‘o, Henri Bergsono, Georgo Simmelio, Gilles‘io Deleuze‘o ir Felixo Guattari, Patricko Keillerio, Julios Kristevos, A. Kiarinos Kordelios, Paulo Virno, Tiqqun ir kitų darbais, flaneur pasitarnauja prizme, per kurią kritiškai žvelgiama į šiuolaikinius reiškinius: gyvenimą ir patirtį metropolyje, autentiškumo ir išskirtinumo suirimą, Kapitalo vykdomą intensyvią pertekliaus gamybą ir nusavinimą, laiko ir trukmės suvokimą, prekinį fetišizmą, vis labiau visuotines susvetimėjimo, nerimo ir melancholijos nuotaikas. Tiriant šiuolaikinės egzistencijos realijas, nuolat grįžtama prie flaneur ir jo dabartinių formų revoliucinių ypatybių: būdingo potencialo pasipriešinimui ir silpnybės rekuperacijai.

The objectives of the thesis - which comprises six parts – can be summarized in i) implementing linear and nonlinear/nonparametric approaches toward detecting, measuring and analyzing the nature and directionality of causal relationships in financial markets, ii) elaborating on modern topics in financial investment analysis, iii) probing into the role of commodity futures in constructing optimal portfolios as well as iv) investigating growth dynamics via aggregated and disaggregated indices. The first paper named “Analyzing causal interactions between sectoral equity returns and commodity futures returns in the aftermath of the global financial crisis: The case of the US and EU equity returns”, aims to explore and compare the dependence and co-movement structure between commodity and various asset classes’ returns including the USA and EU stock markets via the use of linear and non-linear causality testing in a comparative context with the additional adjustment for cointegration and conditional heteroscedasticity. The findings provide important implications for optimal asset allocation and portfolio diversification with respect to various market conditions, namely both in “good” and “bad” (crisis) times. The second paper is entitled “On the time scale behaviour of Equity-Commodity links: Implications for Portfolio Management”, and has been published in the Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money (2016). The study is co-authored with Professors S. Bekiros, D.K. Nguyen, and B. Sjö. It develops a holistic framework for the investigation of the multi-horizon and intra-frequency causal directionalities of various asset classes, by means of multi-resolution analysis. The results verify the assumption that financial markets exhibit time-varying co-movement patterns, which are fundamentally important in a) generating profitable trading strategies according to different investor horizon expectations and b) decoding the financialization mechanism across various asset classes. The third paper entitled “Business Cycle (de) Synchronization in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis: Implications for the Euro Area”, was published at Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2015) and is co-authored with S. Bekiros, D.K Nguyen and B. Sjö. In this work, the scale-dependent time-varying (de)synchronization effects between the Eurozone and the broad Euro area business cycles are revealed, before and after the global financial crisis. The results, which point towards an increased observed comovement during the crisis period for the Euro area, could be catalytic for the introduction of a more efficient monetary policy by EU institutions and in particular by the European Central Bank. In the fourth paper, “Do financial stress and policy uncertainty have an impact on the energy and metals markets? A quantile regression approach”, which was published in the International Review of Economics and Finance (2016) and co-authored with J.C. Reboredo, the financial and policy uncertainty is investigated in relation to the price dynamics of energy and metal commodity futures’ markets. This work lead to the analysis of the asymmetric interrelationships with respect to changes in the perceptions of various risk measures, covering various periods, i.e., “normal” vs. “turbulent” such as upward or downward market episodes. The fifth paper, co-authored with P. Andreasson, S. Bekiros and D.K. Nguyen, is entitled “The impact of speculation and economic uncertainty on commodity markets”, and is published in the International Review of Financial Analysis (2016). This paper attempts a novel methodological approach to measuring speculation in commodity markets, in particular whether market speculation drives agricultural commodity prices or viceversa. The assessment of the empirical analysis demonstrates that agricultural prices are not affected by speculation. Finally, the sixth paper “Energy and Output Dynamics in Bangladesh”, co-authored with B.P. Paul, was published in Energy Economics (2011) and explores the relationship between energy utilization and economic growth in Bangladesh. Specifically, it deals with the important issue of whether energy consumption can be reduced without affecting economic growth while at the same time implicitly may lead to poverty reduction. The findings substantiate the fact that a) energy usage has become more efficient in recent times, as well as indicate that b) fluctuations in energy consumption did not have a significant impact on economic output.