協同規劃、預測與補貨（Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment; CPFR），主要強調供應鏈上買賣雙方協同合作流程的概念，以提升供應鏈上流程的處理效率。然而CPFR流程中多數研究著重在正向供應鏈的協同預測的架構、導入效益與預測方法等議題，但對於當企業活動中包含逆向物流-再製造活動策略下時的協同預測方法少有提之，因此與其相關之研究探討有其必要性。使得在未來訂購零件不確定性增添下，希望能藉由新的短期訂單方法能找出最佳的預測值幫助企業與供應商能加強協同規劃，提升供應鏈競爭力。 本研究以CPFR 流程中協同預測之訂單預測階段為研究主題，蒐集近年來國內外研究CPFR 與訂單預測與逆向物流下的存貨管理之相關文獻為基礎，歸納出再製造活動下的協同合作訂單預測所須具備之屬性與影響因素，並作為模型解釋變數，透過逆向物流最適批量模型、多元回歸與演化策略法（Evolution Strategies）的結合，建構一個統整供應鏈上、下游協同資訊與符合CPFR 流程下訂單預測特性之預測模型。最後範例資料進行計算與分析此預測模型，並提出一套方法論提供決策者在進行補貨時，能以本研究提供的決策程序進行規劃與分析訂單預測量。

Bachelor-Arbeit Univ. St. Gallen, 2006.

A gestão da cadeia de suprimentos ainda é um campo em constante evolução e várias iniciativas surgiram nos últimos anos com o intuito de obter ganhos de competitividade através de um melhor gerenciamento do fluxo de informações ao longo da Supply Chain, uma vez que a globalização não acirrou apenas a competição, mas também as expectativas dos consumidores com relação a produtos e serviços. O objetivo da pesquisa é analisar como os elementos do programa de Planejamento Colaborativo são utilizados em uma empresa do setor metal mecânico. A pesquisa é qualitativa descritiva, aplicando o método de estudo de caso realizado em empresa da Serra Gaúcha, utilizando-se como fonte de evidências, levantamento bibliográfico, observações diretas, análise de documentos e entrevistas, empregando-se a técnica snowball sampling. Primeiramente foram entrevistados profissionais da área de logística da empresa, fornecedores e posteriormente foi realizada a análise de documentos e a revisão da literatura, instrumentos estes que subsidiaram a pesquisa. O resultado final após a avaliação é de que há viabilidade para a implementação, desde que com o comprometimento dos gestores da empresa, da alta direção e principalmente dos fornecedores que precisam se adequar a esta ferramenta de melhoria contínua nas organizações. O tema demonstrou ser de suma importância para o meio acadêmico e empresarial, pois revela práticas já realizadas, porém não sistematizadas. / The management of the supply chain is still an evolving field and several initiatives have emerged in recent years in order to gain competitiveness through better management of information flow along the supply chain, once that the globalization not even stirred just the competition, but also the expectations of consumers in relation to the products and services. The objective of the research is to analyze the elements of Collaborative Planning program are used in a company of mechanical metal sector. The research is descriptive qualitative, using the case study method performed in the company's Serra Gaúcha, using as source of evidence: literature, direct observation, document analysis, and interviews, using the snowball sampling technique. First were interviewed professionals of the company's logistics and later suppliers and was subsequently performed document analysis and review of the literature, instruments that supported the research. The end result, after the assessment is that there are viable for implementation with the commitment of company managers, top management and mainly suppliers who need to adapt to this continuous improvement tool in organizations. The topic proved to be of great importance for academic and industry, it reveals practices already adopted, but not systematized.

A gestão da cadeia de suprimentos ainda é um campo em constante evolução e várias iniciativas surgiram nos últimos anos com o intuito de obter ganhos de competitividade através de um melhor gerenciamento do fluxo de informações ao longo da Supply Chain, uma vez que a globalização não acirrou apenas a competição, mas também as expectativas dos consumidores com relação a produtos e serviços. O objetivo da pesquisa é analisar como os elementos do programa de Planejamento Colaborativo são utilizados em uma empresa do setor metal mecânico. A pesquisa é qualitativa descritiva, aplicando o método de estudo de caso realizado em empresa da Serra Gaúcha, utilizando-se como fonte de evidências, levantamento bibliográfico, observações diretas, análise de documentos e entrevistas, empregando-se a técnica snowball sampling. Primeiramente foram entrevistados profissionais da área de logística da empresa, fornecedores e posteriormente foi realizada a análise de documentos e a revisão da literatura, instrumentos estes que subsidiaram a pesquisa. O resultado final após a avaliação é de que há viabilidade para a implementação, desde que com o comprometimento dos gestores da empresa, da alta direção e principalmente dos fornecedores que precisam se adequar a esta ferramenta de melhoria contínua nas organizações. O tema demonstrou ser de suma importância para o meio acadêmico e empresarial, pois revela práticas já realizadas, porém não sistematizadas. / The management of the supply chain is still an evolving field and several initiatives have emerged in recent years in order to gain competitiveness through better management of information flow along the supply chain, once that the globalization not even stirred just the competition, but also the expectations of consumers in relation to the products and services. The objective of the research is to analyze the elements of Collaborative Planning program are used in a company of mechanical metal sector. The research is descriptive qualitative, using the case study method performed in the company's Serra Gaúcha, using as source of evidence: literature, direct observation, document analysis, and interviews, using the snowball sampling technique. First were interviewed professionals of the company's logistics and later suppliers and was subsequently performed document analysis and review of the literature, instruments that supported the research. The end result, after the assessment is that there are viable for implementation with the commitment of company managers, top management and mainly suppliers who need to adapt to this continuous improvement tool in organizations. The topic proved to be of great importance for academic and industry, it reveals practices already adopted, but not systematized.

A gestão da cadeia de suprimentos ainda é um campo em constante evolução e várias iniciativas surgiram nos últimos anos com o intuito de obter ganhos de competitividade através de um melhor gerenciamento do fluxo de informações ao longo da Supply Chain, uma vez que a globalização não acirrou apenas a competição, mas também as expectativas dos consumidores com relação a produtos e serviços. O objetivo da pesquisa é analisar como os elementos do programa de Planejamento Colaborativo são utilizados em uma empresa do setor metal mecânico. A pesquisa é qualitativa descritiva, aplicando o método de estudo de caso realizado em empresa da Serra Gaúcha, utilizando-se como fonte de evidências, levantamento bibliográfico, observações diretas, análise de documentos e entrevistas, empregando-se a técnica snowball sampling. Primeiramente foram entrevistados profissionais da área de logística da empresa, fornecedores e posteriormente foi realizada a análise de documentos e a revisão da literatura, instrumentos estes que subsidiaram a pesquisa. O resultado final após a avaliação é de que há viabilidade para a implementação, desde que com o comprometimento dos gestores da empresa, da alta direção e principalmente dos fornecedores que precisam se adequar a esta ferramenta de melhoria contínua nas organizações. O tema demonstrou ser de suma importância para o meio acadêmico e empresarial, pois revela práticas já realizadas, porém não sistematizadas. / The management of the supply chain is still an evolving field and several initiatives have emerged in recent years in order to gain competitiveness through better management of information flow along the supply chain, once that the globalization not even stirred just the competition, but also the expectations of consumers in relation to the products and services. The objective of the research is to analyze the elements of Collaborative Planning program are used in a company of mechanical metal sector. The research is descriptive qualitative, using the case study method performed in the company's Serra Gaúcha, using as source of evidence: literature, direct observation, document analysis, and interviews, using the snowball sampling technique. First were interviewed professionals of the company's logistics and later suppliers and was subsequently performed document analysis and review of the literature, instruments that supported the research. The end result, after the assessment is that there are viable for implementation with the commitment of company managers, top management and mainly suppliers who need to adapt to this continuous improvement tool in organizations. The topic proved to be of great importance for academic and industry, it reveals practices already adopted, but not systematized.

Background: In today's competitive and dynamic market, companies are trying to find new ways of changing their warehousing and logistics operations to increase the value for customers. Inbound and outbound logistics flows are key channels within warehouses as these encompass activities such as planning and scheduling which align with the flow of goods between enterprises and external associates, i.e. suppliers and customers. Due to the complexity of the logistics operations, the planning of both flows is dealt with separately. In this thesis the CPFR business model will be reconstructed and combined with lean tools in all four phases to achieve the potential enablers.   Purpose: The overarching purpose is to analyze the potential enablers of implementing a reconstructed CPFR business model with the application of lean principles to enhance inbound and outbound logistics flows.   Method: This thesis has conducted a single embedded case study at Dagab Inköp & Logistik. Empirical data has been collected primarily through semi-structured interviews with employees within the organization and Snabbgross, which is wholesale company within the corporation. Respondents that participated had different positions such as operational purchaser, forecast specialist, transportation engineer, and warehouse manager.   Conclusion: This study has distinguished enablers of lean tools and its impact on organisations. Lean is essential to integrate in the CPFR business model in order to ensure enhancement within in- and outbound logistics flows. It has been highlighted that is of importance to integrate lean tools in all four phases of the CPFR model.

台灣圖書出版產業資金與技術的進入門檻低，出版社多是中小型企業的經營模式，近年，台灣圖書出版產業不斷出現的問題有：每年新書出版品過多；在書店通路陳列空間有限下，圖書的生命週期縮短；資訊交換不透通，上中下游都在重複建檔工作，形成資源浪費；帳款回收問題，部分出版社「以書養書」的惡性循環；圖書產業資訊化程度差異大，實際銷售資訊不易取得，形成出版社盲目出版新書與無法掌握暢銷書再版時機與數量；中游發行商與下游書店通路大量進出貨與節節高升的退書率；在2007年，相繼發生凌域事件、出版聯盟和發行聯誼會與金石堂連鎖書店的爭議事件等，種種跡象顯示台灣圖書產業供應鏈出現了問題。其中尤以退書率的攀升問題最為嚴重。 本研究以文獻探討、深度訪談台灣圖書產業高階主管與個案分析等研究方法，探討台灣圖書產業供應鏈中造成退書率攀高的問題與困境。並以從事圖書發行有二十八年經驗的A公司為案例，探討供應鏈協同機制的CPFR模型。本研究聚焦於A公司跨企業流程模式中的新書出版作業流程、再版書出版作業流程與補書、退書和調書作業流程等三大部分。A公司資訊平台應用系統架構建置也一併討論，包括圖書產業協同作業入口網站系統、圖書產業協同作業網路服務系統、協同出版規劃、預測和補貨系統和圖書產業協同系統PICS。該資訊平台主要進行A公司體系內上中下游的資源整合，降低圖書退書率與提高經營績效。 本研究之結論綜合如下：一、CPFR可以是解決台灣圖書產業供應鏈高退書率問題的解決方案，二、CPFR的推動與圖書產業資訊交換依賴A公司建置完善的資訊平台與系統達成，三、CPFR協同機制建立了A公司體系成員的競爭優勢和提升企業經營績效，部分A公司體系內出版業者之市場佔有率也因此增加。 最後，提出本研究對台灣圖書出版產業供應鏈降低退書率的作法，人才培育、國家政策推動等建議。對個案公司：利潤模式估算與營運模式複製等建議。以及未來可能的研究議題。

由於隨著產品生命週期不斷的縮短，利用CPFR可幫助企業降低存貨管理的成本與提昇效率，然而有良好的銷售預測對降低存貨成本是極為重要的。因此，為了讓銷售預測更為準確，一個良好的例外管理機制，可以幫助企業有效率地辨識及處理銷售預測例外品項，對於銷售預測是有所幫助的。因此，本研究希望發展一個例外管理的風險評估模型，能夠讓企業在進行CPFR時銷售預測的例外管理活動時能夠了解組織需要承擔的風險來源有哪些，透過風險評估模型的計算可以事前估計因例外管理活動失效而造成銷售預測錯誤的機率有多高，進而作為企業進行例外管理活動之參考。本研究利用文獻探討及個案訪談從例外管理活動中篩選風險因子，並運用因素分析法及羅吉斯迴歸模型構建本研究之風險評估模型，以實際預測資料驗證本研究模型之正確性。

Globalization that diminishes the barriers to trade worldwide has transformed the structure of production and increased the global competition in the textile and apparel industry. Especially, the elimination of quotas on January 2005 has totally changed the whole scenario of the apparel industry. A boom has been noticed in the emerging markets. Buyers shift their maximum orders to the low cost countries to increase their profit margins. China has gained its popularity among the European and American buyers because of the cheap labor and large scales of production and has become the world’s largest exporter of textile and apparel. The traditional competitive factor among the buyers is the lower cost of the product but the changing markets trends and demand volatility pushes the buyers to focus also on quality and lead times in addition to price. Due to the huge competition among the cluster of brands, retailers and wholesalers, lead time is becoming critical as longer lead times increases the risk of bottleneck to sales. China is the most important apparel supplier for the EU (especially Germany, the UK, and France) because it provides the cost benefit to the sourcing companies, but at the same time, it increases the lead times and also has more environmental impact in terms of pollution because of the long geographical distance.This thesis highlights that there is a remarkable rise of the labor cost in China, noticed for the last couple of years, which has reduced the competitive factor of price while sourcing from China. This is also an upcoming challenge for the whole world with regards to sourcing strategies. Many sourcing companies are shifting their shares away from China in order to achieve their desired profit margins. Turkey may be an alternative sourcing destination for the European apparel buyers and wholesalers because of its competitive labor cost, favorable government policies, flexibility, sustainability, and proximity to Europe. In this thesis, a pilot study is carried out to determine the relationship and effects of lead times on sales. This thesis also describes the effects of relationships among the business partners on the supply chain flow. It is noted through several pilot studies that the organizations who work in collaboration with their supply chain partners can significantly improve their supply chain efficiency by reducing the inventories, markdowns, lead times, lost sales, and increasing forecast accuracy. There are several tools in use for collaboration such as Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI), Electronic Data Interchange (EDI), Just in Time (JIT), Customer Relationship Management (CRM), and Collaboration, Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR). In this paper the CPFR implementation steps, benefits, and hindrances are discussed in detail. / Program: Master programme in Applied Textile Management

Globalization that diminishes the barriers to trade worldwide has transformed the structure of production and increased the global competition in the textile and apparel industry. Especially, the elimination of quotas on January 2005 has totally changed the whole scenario of the apparel industry. A boom has been noticed in the emerging markets. Buyers shift their maximum orders to the low cost countries to increase their profit margins. China has gained its popularity among the European and American buyers because of the cheap labor and large scales of production and has become the world’s largest exporter of textile and apparel. The traditional competitive factor among the buyers is the lower cost of the product but the changing markets trends and demand volatility pushes the buyers to focus also on quality and lead times in addition to price. Due to the huge competition among the cluster of brands, retailers and wholesalers, lead time is becoming critical as longer lead times increases the risk of bottleneck to sales. China is the most important apparel supplier for the EU (especially Germany, the UK, and France) because it provides the cost benefit to the sourcing companies, but at the same time, it increases the lead times and also has more environmental impact in terms of pollution because of the long geographical distance.This thesis highlights that there is a remarkable rise of the labor cost in China, noticed for the last couple of years, which has reduced the competitive factor of price while sourcing from China. This is also an upcoming challenge for the whole world with regards to sourcing strategies. Many sourcing companies are shifting their shares away from China in order to achieve their desired profit margins. Turkey may be an alternative sourcing destination for the European apparel buyers and wholesalers because of its competitive labor cost, favorable government policies, flexibility, sustainability, and proximity to Europe. In this thesis, a pilot study is carried out to determine the relationship and effects of lead times on sales. This thesis also describes the effects of relationships among the business partners on the supply chain flow. It is noted through several pilot studies that the organizations who work in collaboration with their supply chain partners can significantly improve their supply chain efficiency by reducing the inventories, markdowns, lead times, lost sales, and increasing forecast accuracy. There are several tools in use for collaboration such as Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI), Electronic Data Interchange (EDI), Just in Time (JIT), Customer Relationship Management (CRM), and Collaboration, Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR). In this paper the CPFR implementation steps, benefits, and hindrances are discussed in detail. / Program: Master programme in Applied Textile Management