To extract the best possible information from geodetic and geophysical observations, it is necessary to select a model of the observation errors, mostly the family of Gaussian normal distributions. However, there are alternatives, typically chosen in the framework of robust M-estimation. We give a synopsis of well-known and less well-known models for observation errors and propose to select a model based on information criteria. In this contribution we compare the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Anderson Darling (AD) test and apply them to the test problem of fitting a straight line. The comparison is facilitated by a Monte Carlo approach. It turns out that the model selection by AIC has some advantages over the AD test.

<p></p><p>A large body of literature suggests that cognitive abilities are important determinants for training and job performance, including flight performance. The associations between measures of ability tests and job performance have been the focus of many empirical studies, resulting in an overall conclusion that general mental ability, <i>g</i>, is the main source of prediction, while other narrower abilities have limited power for predicting job performance. Despite the attention given to cognitive ability-flight performance relationships, their associations have not been fully understood at the broad construct level, and most extant literature focused on the relations at the observed scores level. Thus, the present dissertation study was designed to contribute to the progression of this understanding by examining the relations between cognitive abilities and flight training performance, using data from four U.S. Air Force (USAF) pilot samples. For comparison, one navigator and one air battle manager sample were also analyzed. The data were obtained from correlation matrices of prior investigations and analyzed via structural equation modeling (SEM) procedures. </p> <p> Four studies are reported in the thesis: (1) preliminary study, (2) primary validation study, (3) cross-validation study, and (4) cross-occupation validation study. The preliminary study assessed the test battery used in the subsequent predictive studies. The primary validation study introduced a bifactor predictive SEM model for testing the influence of cognitive abilities in predicting pilot performance. The cross-validation study assessed the consistency of the predictive model suggested in the primary validation study, using three additional pilots’ samples. The cross-occupation validation study compared the predictive model using data from three aviation-related occupations (flying, navigation, air battle management). Ability factors were extracted from scores of pilot applicants on the Air Force Officer Qualifying Test (AFOQT), the USAF officers’ primary selection test battery, whereas the flight performance scores were obtained from pilot records during the flight training program.</p> <p> In addition to the <i>g</i> factor, <i>verbal ability, quantitative ability, spatial ability, perceptual speed ability, and aviation-related acquired knowledge </i>are the six latent cognitive ability factors investigated in the reported studies. Pilot performance measures were modeled either as observed or latent variables covering ratings of academic and hands-on flying performance in different phases of the training program. The studies of this thesis established that (1) general ability contributes substantially to the prediction models; however, it is not the only important predictor, (2) aviation-related acquired knowledge is the most robust predictor of pilot performance among the abilities examined, with a role even exceeding that of <i>g</i>, (3) perceptual speed predicted pilot performance uniquely in several occasions, while verbal, spatial, and quantitative abilities demonstrated trivial incremental validity for hands-on pilot performance beyond that provided by the <i>g</i> measure, and (4) the relative importance of cognitive abilities tends to vary across aviation occupations.</p><br><p></p>

Die vorliegende Arbeit befasst sich mit dem Formänderungsvermögen von Al-Mg-Verbunden. Diese hybriden Verbunde wurden mittels hydrostatischem Strangpressen hergestellt und sind gekennzeichnet durch eine stoffschlüssige Verbindung basierend auf einer intermetallischen Phase. Basis der Untersuchungen waren die experimentellen Analysen der grundlegenden Hauptumformarten des Schmiedens Stauchen, Breiten und Steigen, um eine umfassende Charakterisierung der Umformbarkeit derartiger hybrider Verbunde zu gewährleisten. Dabei erfolgte die Herleitung von geeigneten Umformgesenken, der Aufbau eines Experimentierfeldes sowie die Definition der Variationsparameter. Die experimentellen Methoden wurden zweckmäßig mit numerischen Methoden ergänzt, um die Problemstellung umfassend zu analysieren. Bei den Untersuchungen wurde die belastungsabhängige Umformbarkeit der hybriden Al-Mg-Verbunde, insbesondere der intermetallischen Phasen, festgestellt. Aufgrund der Mikrostruktur verfügen die intermetallischen Phasen über eine Vorzugsrichtung, welche eine Schädigung hauptsächlich in radialer Belastungsrichtung aufweist. Die Schädigung der primären Grenzschicht geschieht durch eine Fragmentierung, wobei sich durch Diffusionsprozesse eine sekundäre Grenzschicht entlang der neuen Kontaktstellen bildet. Durch die Anwendung der numerischen Methoden konnten die maximalen Schubspannungen sowie die Vergleichsumformgrade als bedeutsame Einflussgrößen ermittelt werden. Basierend auf diesen Erkenntnissen erfolgte die Herleitung eines makromechanischen Versagenskriteriums, mit dem innerhalb der numerischen Simulation kritische Bereiche der Grenzschichtschädigung ohne experimentelle Versuche dargestellt werden können. Abschließend wurden Optimierungsstrategien auf Basis der gewonnenen Erkenntnisse abgeleitet. Die Modifikation des Mantel-Kern-Verhältnisses sowie die gezielte Anwendung von Exzentrizitäten bieten die Möglichkeit, anforderungsspezifische maßgeschneiderte hybride Al-Mg-Verbunde zu realisieren. / The presented work describes the extensive studies of the formability of hybrid Al-Mg compounds. These hybrid compounds were produced by a hydrostatic co-extrusion process and can be characterized by an interface consisting of an intermetallic phase. Basis of the studies were experimental analyses of the fundamental forming processes upsetting, spreading and uprising to provide a comprehensive characterization of the formability of such hybrid compounds. Therefore, the development of suitable forging dies, the experimental set-up and the definition of the variation of parameters was carried out. The experimental methods were supported with appropriate numerical methods to analyze the compounds in detail. In the studies, a load direction dependency of the formability of hybrid Al-Mg compounds, especially related to the intermetallic phases was detected. Due to the microstructure of the intermetallic phases, a primarily preferred damage direction in radial load direction, was determined. The damage to the primary interface occurs by a fragmentation mechanism. Due to diffusion processes a secondary interface along the new contact areas was established. The application of numerical methods showed that the maximum shear stresses and the logarithmic equivalent strains were determined as the significant parameters. Based on these scientific findings a macro-mechanical damage model was developed. By means of this model the critical areas of the interface damage can be visualized in the numerical simulation. Finally, based on the scientific findings optimization strategies were derived. The modification of the sleeve-core ratio and the specific application of eccentricity by a new eccentric hydrostatic co-extrusion process allow the full application of such hybrid Al-Mg compounds in the industry.

This thesis proposes a new class of bivariate autoregressive conditional median duration models for matched high-frequency data and develops some inferential methods for an existing univariate model as well as the bivariate models introduced here to facilitate model fitting and forecasting. During the last two decades, the autoregressive conditional mean duration (ACD) model has been playing a dominant role in analyzing irregularly spaced high-frequency financial data. Univariate ACD models have been extensively discussed in the literature. However, some major challenges remain. The existing ACD models do not provide a good distributional fit to financial durations, which are right-skewed and often exhibit unimodal hazard rates. Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) distribution is capable of modeling a wide variety of positively skewed data. Median is not only a robust measure of central tendency, but also a natural scale parameter of the BS distribution. A class of conditional median duration models, the BS-ACD and the scale-mixture BS ACD models based on the BS, BS power-exponential and Student-t BS (BSt) distributions, have been suggested in the literature to improve the quality of the model fit. The BSt-ACD model is more flexible than the BS-ACD model in terms of kurtosis and skewness. In Chapter 2, we develop the maximum likelihood estimation method for the BSt-ACD model. The estimation is performed by utilizing a hybrid of optimization algorithms. The performance of the estimates is then examined through an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study. We also carry out model discrimination using both likelihood-based method and information-based criterion. Applications to real trade durations and comparison with existing alternatives are then made. The bivariate version of the ACD model has not received attention due to non-synchronicity. Although some bivariate generalizations of the ACD model have been introduced, they do not possess enough flexibility in modeling durations since they are conditional mean-based and do not account for non-monotonic hazard rates. Recently, the bivariate BS (BVBS) distribution has been developed with many desirable properties and characteristics. It allows for unimodal shapes of marginal hazard functions. In Chapter 3, upon using this bivariate BS distribution, we propose the BVBS-ACD model as a natural bivariate extension of the BS-ACD model. It enables us to jointly analyze matched duration series, and also capture the dependence between the two series. The maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters and associated inferential methods have been developed. A Monte Carlo simulation study is then carried out to examine the performance of the proposed inferential methods. The goodness-of-fit and predictive performance of the model are also discussed. A real bivariate duration data analysis is provided to illustrate the developed methodology. The bivariate Student-t BS (BVBSt) distribution has been introduced in the literature as a robust extension of the BVBS distribution. It provides greater flexibility in terms of the kurtosis and skewness through the inclusion of an additional shape parameter. In Chapter 4, we propose the BVBSt-ACD model as a natural extension of the BSt-ACD model to the bivariate case. We then discuss the maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters. A simulation study is carried out to investigate the performance of these estimators. Model discrimination is then done by using information-based criterion. Methods for evaluating the goodness-of-fit and predictive ability of the model are also discussed. A simulated data example is used to illustrate the proposed model as compared to the BVBS-ACD model. Finally, in Chapter 5, some concluding comments are made and also some problems for future research are mentioned. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

Since the last few years, the unprecedented growth of communication systems involving the propagation of electromagnetic waves is particularly due to developments in mobile phone technology. The reverberation chamber is a reliable bench-test, enabling the study of the effects of electromagnetic waves on a specific electronic appliance. However, the operating of a reverberation chamber being rather complicated, development of numerical models are of utmost importance to determine the crucial parameters to be considered.This thesis consists in the modelling and the simulation of the operating principles of a reverberation chamber by means of the Finite-Difference Time-Domain method. After a brief study based on field and power measurements performed in a reverberation chamber, the second chapter deals with the different problems encountered during the modelling. The consideration of losses being a very important factor in the operating of the chamber, two methods of implementation of these losses are set out in this chapter. Chapter~3 consists in the analysis of the influence of the stirrer on the first eigenmodes of the chamber; the latter modes can undergo a frequency shift of several MHz. Chapter~4 shows a comparison of results issued from high frequency simulations and theoretical statistical results. The problem of an object placed in the chamber, resulting in a field disturbance is also tackled. Finally, in the fifth chapter, a comparison of statistical results for stirrers having different shapes is set out.

Tesis por compendio / [ES] Actualmente, la mayor parte de la población mundial vive en ciudades y se espera que esta tendencia continúe, trasladando cada año más población rural hacia las áreas urbanas. Este fenómeno se debe principalmente al desarrollo económico que se genera en las ciudades. Estas condiciones plantean desafíos importantes para las ciudades en cuanto a su planificación y gestión. Si el crecimiento de la urbanización se gestiona adecuadamente puede contribuir al crecimiento sostenible, aumentando la productividad y el nivel de vida de las personas. Sin embargo, no se puede pasar por alto que el crecimiento de las ciudades implica una afectación al medioambiente. Uno de los problemas que más preocupación causa es la expansión de las ciudades que sustituyen los espacios verdes y agrícolas que rodean a las ciudades por calles y estructuras impermeables. Este proceso disminuye la capacidad del suelo para absorber el agua en un evento de lluvia, incrementando la escorrentía y el riesgo de inundaciones. Si a este problema particular de las ciudades, le sumamos el innegable cambio climático que aumenta la frecuencia de eventos de lluvias extremas en ciertas zonas del planeta, la adaptación de la infraestructura de las ciudades para hacerlas más seguras es una necesidad imperiosa. Los sistemas de drenaje son infraestructuras esenciales, concebidos para captar y transportar el agua producto de las precipitaciones, su buen funcionamiento genera seguridad y bienestar a las personas mientras que un funcionamiento inadecuado se asocia al riesgo y a la vulnerabilidad. Bajo escenarios de cambio climático estas estructuras que fueron diseñadas para caudales menores no garantizan la efectiva evacuación de las aguas, volviendo a las ciudades vulnerables a las inundaciones que pueden generar pérdidas sociales y económicas. Para mitigar estos impactos se han desarrollado diferentes medidas como las denominadas buenas prácticas de manejo o la instalación de sistemas de drenaje con tecnología de bajo impacto, entre otras. Sin embargo, estas medidas no son suficientes para controlar el caudal pico de una lluvia extrema. Adaptar la red existente a las nuevas condiciones climáticas, se presenta como una alternativa idónea para el control de las inundaciones en el entorno urbano. Ampliar la capacidad de la red cambiando el tamaño de las tuberías por otras de mayor diámetro ha sido el enfoque tradicional que se ha venido usando desde hace muchos años. La inclusión de tanques de tormenta en el sistema es una medida que se adoptó posteriormente para dotarlo de mayor resiliencia a los picos de lluvias extremas. Desafortunadamente la construcción de estas estructuras en el entorno conlleva una gran dificultad por el tamaño de la intervención, el tiempo y el coste. En este contexto, el presente trabajo, presenta una novedosa forma de mejorar las redes de drenaje combinando el cambio de tuberías, la instalación de tanques de tormenta en la red de drenaje e incluye también elementos de control hidráulico en la red de drenaje. Con estas acciones se considera que la rehabilitación de la red será más eficiente en términos técnicos y económicos. Para lograrlo, se usa un modelo de optimización creado a partir de un algoritmo genético modificado conectado al modelo SWMM mediante una toolkit. El modelo de optimización se enfoca en minimizar el coste de la infraestructura requerida y de los costes asociados a las inundaciones. Planteado así el problema, se define una función objetivo compuesta por funciones de coste que será evaluada para encontrar las mejores soluciones. El desarrollo de diferentes pasos para la obtención de una metodología eficiente, las estrategias para reducir los tiempos de cálculo y el esfuerzo computacional, el análisis económico de las inundaciones y las estructuras requeridas se detalla en cada capítulo de esta tesis. / [CA] Actualment, la major part de la població mundial viu en ciutats i s'espera que aquesta tendència continue, traslladant cada any més població rural cap a les àrees urbanes. Aquest fenomen es deu principalment al desenvolupament econòmic que es genera a les ciutats. Aquestes condicions plantegen desafiaments importants per a les ciutats quant a la seua planificació i gestió. Si el creixement de la urbanització es gestiona adequadament pot contribuir al creixement sostenible, augmentant la productivitat i el nivell de vida de les persones. No obstant això, no es pot passar per alt que el creixement de les ciutats implica una afectació al medi ambient. Un dels problemes que més preocupació causa és l'expansió de les ciutats que substitueixen els espais verds i agrícoles que envolten a les ciutats per carrers i estructures impermeables. Aquest procés disminueix la capacitat del sòl per a absorbir l'aigua en un esdeveniment de pluja, incrementant l'escolament i el risc d'inundacions. Si a aquest problema particular de les ciutats, li sumem l'innegable canvi climàtic que augmenta la freqüència d'esdeveniments de pluges extremes en unes certes zones del planeta, l'adaptació de la infraestructura de les ciutats per a fer-les més segures és una necessitat imperiosa. Els sistemes de drenatge són infraestructures essencials, concebuts per a captar i transportar l'aigua producte de les precipitacions, el seu bon funcionament genera seguretat i benestar a les persones mentre que un funcionament inadequat s'associa al risc i a la vulnerabilitat. Sota escenaris de canvi climàtic aquestes estructures que van ser dissenyades per a cabals menors no garanteixen l'efectiva evacuació de les aigües, tornant a les ciutats vulnerables a les inundacions que poden generar pèrdues socials i econòmiques. Per a mitigar aquests impactes s'han desenvolupat diferents mesures com les denominades bones pràctiques de maneig o la instal·lació de sistemes de drenatge amb tecnologia de baix impacte, entre altres. No obstant això, aquestes mesures no són suficients per a controlar el cabal pique d'una pluja extrema. Adaptar la xarxa existent a les noves condicions climàtiques, es presenta com una alternativa idònia per al control de les inundacions en l'entorn urbà. Ampliar la capacitat de la xarxa canviant la grandària de les canonades per altres de major diàmetre ha sigut l'enfocament tradicional que s'ha vingut usant des de fa molts anys. La inclusió de tancs de tempesta en el sistema és una mesura que es va adoptar posteriorment per a dotar-lo de major resiliència als pics de pluges extremes. Desafortunadament la construcció d'aquestes estructures en l'entorn comporta una gran dificultat per la grandària de la intervenció, el temps i el cost. En aquest context, el present treball, presenta una nova manera de millorar les xarxes de drenatge combinant el canvi de canonades, la instal·lació de tancs de tempesta en la xarxa de drenatge i inclou també elements de control hidràulic en la xarxa de drenatge. Amb aquestes accions es considera que la rehabilitació de la xarxa serà més eficient en termes tècnics i econòmics. Per a aconseguir-ho, s'usa un model d'optimització creat a partir d'un algorisme genètic modificat connectat al model SWMM mitjançant una toolkit. El model d'optimització s'enfoca a minimitzar el cost de la infraestructura requerida i dels costos associats a les inundacions. Plantejat així el problema, es defineix una funció objectiu composta per funcions de cost que serà avaluada per a trobar les millors solucions. El desenvolupament de diferents passos per a l'obtenció d'una metodologia eficient, les estratègies per a reduir els temps de càlcul i l'esforç computacional, l'anàlisi econòmica de les inundacions i les estructures requerides es detalla en cada capítol d'aquesta tesi. / [EN] Currently, most of the world's population lives in cities and this trend is expected to continue, moving more rural population to urban areas every year. This phenomenon is mainly due to the economic development that is generated in the cities. These conditions pose significant challenges for cities in terms of planning and management. If the growth of urbanization is properly managed, it can contribute to sustainable growth, increasing productivity and people's standard of living. However, it cannot be overlooked that the growth of cities implies an impact on the environment. One of the problems that causes the most concern is the expansion of cities that replace the green and agricultural spaces that surround the cities with streets and impermeable structures. This process decreases the capacity of the soil to absorb water in a rain event, increasing runoff and the risk of flooding. If adding to this problem of cities the undeniable climate change that increases the frequency of extreme rainfall events in certain areas of the planet, the adaptation of the infrastructure of cities to make them safer is an urgent need. Drainage systems are essential infrastructures, designed to capture and transport water produced by precipitation, their proper functioning generates security and wellness for people, while inadequate functioning is associated with risk and vulnerability. Under climate change scenarios, these structures, which were designed for lower flows, do not guarantee the effective evacuation of water, making cities vulnerable to floods that can generate social and economic losses. To mitigate these impacts, different measures have been developed, such as the so-called Best Management Practices or the installation of Low Impact Development etc. However, these measures are not enough to control the peak flow of extreme rainfall. Adapting the existing network to the new climatic conditions is presented as an ideal alternative for flood control in the urban environment. Expanding the capacity of the network by changing the size of the pipes for others with a larger diameter has been the traditional approach that has been used for many years. The inclusion of storm tanks in the system is a measure that was later adopted to provide it with greater resilience to extreme rainfall peaks. Unfortunately, the construction of these structures in the environment entails great difficulty due to the size of the intervention, the time, and the cost. In this context, the present work presents a novel way of improving drainage networks combining the replacement of pipes, the installation of storm tanks in the drainage network and also includes elements of hydraulic control in the drainage network. With these actions it is considered that the rehabilitation of the network will be more efficient in technical and economic terms. To achieve this, an optimization model created from a modified genetic algorithm connected to the SWMM model through a toolkit is used. The optimization model focuses on minimizing the cost of the required infrastructure and the costs associated with flooding. Posing the problem in this way, an objective function is defined composed of cost functions that will be evaluated to find the best solutions. The development of different steps to obtain an efficient methodology, the strategies to reduce calculation times and computational effort, the economic analysis of floods and the required structures are detailed in each chapter of this thesis. / I want to mention the support for the realization of this thesis from the Program Fondecyt through Project No. 1210410 and Project No. 1180660 of the National Agency for Research and Development (ANID) of Chile. From the program PAID 12-21 of the Polytechnic University of Valencia and the program E+/EU Erasmus+ Traineeship. / Bayas Jiménez, LA. (2023). Flood control in urban areas through the rehabilitation of drainage networks [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/199234 / Compendio

Syftet med studien är att presentera ett designkoncept för publika diskussioner på nätet med målet att uppnå djupare diskussioner och minska mängden information overload. Arbetet använder metoden Concept Driven Interaction Design (CDID) som går ut på att skapa ett designkoncept utifrån flera olika teorier som appliceras genom interaktionsdesign. Ett designkoncept innehåller tre delar: ett namn, ett syfte och huvudprinciper. CDID innehåller sju steg som arbetet är utformat efter: 1.      Concept Generation – Summeras i en tabell som jämför diskussioner i forum (med flera antagande) och diskussioner med hjälp av metoden Philosophy for Children (P4C), samt annan teori. 2.      Concept Exploration – Åtta olika designaspekter identifieras utifrån jämförelsetabellen. 3.      Internal Concept Critique – Designaspekterna jämförs med två snarlika diskussionsformat. 4.      Design of Artifacts – Designkoncept version 1 skapas. 5.      External Design Critique – Intervjuer utförs för att undersöka intervjupersonerna generella erfarenheter av online diskussioner, testar antagandena från jämförelsetabellen och ge direkt feedback på första versionen av designkonceptet. 6.      Concept Revisited – Ändringar görs baserat på intervjumaterial och direkt feedback. 7.      Concept Contextualization – Designkonceptet kopplas tillbaka till litteraturen. Studien resulterar i ett designkoncept kallat CoFramer och stödjer dessa huvudprinciper som ställs i kontrast till material som identifierats genom intervjuerna: Tabell 1: CoFramers huvudprinciper och faktorer från intervjuer om diskussioner på forum. CoFramers huvudprinciper | Från intervjuer om diskussioner på forum Strukturerad början och slut | Diskussion utan tydligt slut Begränsat antal deltagare | Stor mängd deltagare Minimum antal deltagare | Många inaktiva åskådare Explicita deltagare | Lite information om deltagare Gemensamma förutsättningar | Otydlighet kring deltagares förutsättningar Begränsad informationstäthet per inlägg | Långa inlägg och/eller snabba inlägg Den röda tråden och parallella trådar | Oftast parallella trådar Aktiv samtalsledare | Outredda missförstånd Studien indikerar på att CoFramer bör resultera i mer strukturerade diskussioner och som utsätter användaren för en lägre mängd information overload och mindre grounding cost jämfört med vad som vanligtvis uppstår i publika diskussioner online. / The focus of this essay is to develop a design concept for online public discussions with deep discussions and low information overload. The method used is Concept Driven Interaction Design (CDID) which involves constructing a design concept by applying a variety of theories in tangible interaction design. A design concept has three basic parts: a name, high-level goals and outlines generic principles. CDID includes seven steps which is used in this work: 1.      Concept Generation – Formatted into a table that compare forum discussion (with several hypothesis) compared to discussions with the method Philosophy for Children (P4C) and other theories. 2.      Concept Exploration – Eight distinct design aspects are identified from the comparison table. 3.      Internal Concept Critique – The design aspects are compared to three similar discussion formats. 4.      Design of Artifacts – Design concept version 1 is created. 5.      External Design Critique – Interviews are conducted to explore their general experience of online discussions, investigate the hypothesis from the comparison table and to seek direct feedback on the first draft of the design concept. 6.      Concept Revisited – Changes are made to the design concept based on the interview material and the direct feedback. 7.      Concept Contextualization – The design concept is related to the original literature. The result of the study is a design concept named CoFramer. CoFramer’s generic principles are summarized and contrasted against factors identified from the interview material in this table: Tabell 2: CoFramer’s generic principles and interviews about online discussions. CoFramer’s generic principles | From interview material on forum discussion Organized start and ending | Discussions without clear ending Limited number of participants | Large number of participants Minimum number of participants | Large number of inactive spectators Explicit participants | Low information about participants Common conditions | Vagueness in participants conditions Limited information density per post | Long posts and/or fast posts The red thread and parallel threads | Often parallel threads Active facilitator | Unresolved misunderstandings The study indicates that CoFramer would create more structured discussions with a lower amount of information overload and less grounding cost compared what normally arise in public online discussions.

This study aimed to relate the emotions of two fathers regarding their incestuous behaviour. The epistemological framework is social constructionism. The `case-study approach' was chosen as the most suitable method to gain access to the information. Qualitative in-depth interviews with the fathers were conducted to collect data about their emotional experiences regarding their incestuous behaviour and Hermeneutics was used as method of data analysis. The emotional experiences of the participants regarding their incestuous behaviour were reconstructed in the form of prominent themes. Themes that seemed to re-occur in both participants' stories were identified and discussed as common themes. These themes included; ambivalence, powerlessness and guilt. This study provides a rich understanding of the emotional experiences of incestuous fathers. These experiences seem to be unstated or insufficiently emphasised in the traditional empirical, cause and effect, linear modernist literature. / Psychology / M.A. (Clinical Psychology)

Sport and dance injuries have increased despite improvements in coaching techniques and medical care. Other factors, including psychological ones, were therefore thought to play a role in injury vulnerability. Most of the attempts to explain how psychological variables can affect an athlete's predisposition to injury have been based on anxiety or stress concepts. In this survey type study an interactive approach to stress has been adopted with the goal of finding a relationship between stress and injury in a group of professional ballet dancers. No simple direct relationship was found. Multiple regression analysis was performed and a more complicated relationship between stress indicators and injury was found. When an attempt was made to investigate the significant interaction, no significant correlations were found. However, the correlations were found to be large and negative. This could indicate that if the sample size had been larger significant correlations may have been found. / Psychology / M.A. (Psychology)

Les consommateurs d’aujourd’hui ont des goûts très variés et cherchent les produits les plus récents. Avec l’accélération technologique, les cycles de vie des produits se sont raccourcis et donc, de nouveaux produits doivent être introduits au marché plus souvent et progressivement, les anciens doivent y être retirés. L’introduction d’un nouveau produit est une source de croissance et d’avantage concurrentiel. Les directeurs du Marketing et Supply Chain se sont confrontés à la question de savoir comment gérer avec succès le remplacement de leurs produits et d’optimiser les coûts de la chaîne d’approvisionnement associée. Dans une situation idéale, la procédure de rollover est efficace et claire: l’ancien produit est vendu jusqu’à une date prévue où un nouveau produit est introduit. Dans la vie réelle, la situation est moins favorable. Le but de notre travail est d’analyser et de caractériser la politique optimale du rollover avec une date de disponibilitéstochastique pour l’introduction du nouveau produit sur le marché. Pour résoudre le problème d’optimisation,nous utilisons dans notre premier article deux mesures de minimisation: le coût moyen et le coût de la valeurconditionnelle à risque. On obtient des solutions en forme explicite pour les politiques optimales. En outre, nous caractérisons l’influence des paramètres de coûts sur la structure de la politique optimale. Dans cet esprit, nous analysons aussi le comportement de la politique de rollover optimale dans des contextes différents. Dans notre deuxième article, nous examinons le même problème mais avec une demande constante pour le premier produit et une demande linéaire au début puis constante pour le deuxième. Ce modèle est inspiré par la demande de Bass. Dans notre troisième article, la date de disponibilité du nouveau produit existe mais elle est inconnue. La seule information disponible est un ensemble historique d’échantillons qui sont tirés de la vraie distribution. Nous résoudrons le problème avec l’approche data drivenet nous obtenons des formulations tractables. Nous développons aussi des bornes sur le nombre d’échantillons nécessaires pour garantir qu’avec une forte probabilité, le coût n’est pas très loin du vrai coût optimal. / Shorter product life cycles and rapid product obsolescence provide increasing incentives to introduce newproducts to markets more quickly. As a consequence of rapidly changing market conditions, firms focus onimproving their new product development processes to reap the benefits of early market entry. Researchershave analyzed market entry, but have seldom provided quantitative approaches for the product rolloverproblem. This research builds upon the literature by using established optimization methods to examine howfirms can minimize their net loss during the rollover process. Specifically, our work explicitly optimizes thetiming of removal of old products and introduction of new products, the optimal strategy, and the magnitudeof net losses when the market entry approval date of a new product is unknown. In the first paper, we use theconditional value at risk to optimize the net loss and investigate the effect of risk perception of the manageron the rollover process. We compare it to the minimization of the classical expected net loss. We deriveconditions for optimality and unique closed-form solutions for single and dual rollover cases. In the secondpaper, we investigate the rollover problem, but for a time-dependent demand rate for the second producttrying to approximate the Bass Model. Finally, in the third paper, we apply the data-driven optimizationapproach to the product rollover problem where the probability distribution of the approval date is unknown.We rather have historical observations of approval dates. We develop the optimal times of rollover and showthe superiority of the data-driven method over the conditional value at risk in case where it is difficult to guessthe real probability distribution