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Diagramme de Lexis et cohortes : du temporel au non-temporelVandeschrick, Christophe P. M. 22 April 2005 (has links)
L'analyse démographique se déroule principalement dans un cadre de référence défini par des variables temporelles ; ce faisant, elle débouche sur des résultats mettant en évidence des régularités remarquables. Cette constatation pourrait laisser croire automatiquement à une valeur explicative substantielle des variables en cause. En fait, généralement, l'âge, la date ou le moment de naissance, par exemple, n'ont en eux-mêmes aucune vertu explicative, si ce n'est à travers des phénomènes physiologiques ou sociologiques, par exemple. En prenant le cas de la mortalité des personnes âgées, l'âge peut être, au moins en partie, considéré comme un proxy du processus physiologique du vieillissement.
L'objectif principal de cette thèse est de voir si les méthodes des démographes pourraient se transposer en optant pour un cadre de référence non temporel qui serait régi par une variable éventuellement plus proche de causes en rapport avec un phénomène étudié.
La réponse à cette question est affirmative. Sur un plan purement mathématique, tout cadre de référence composé de trois variables formant une combinaison linéaire et dont une est invariable individu par individu peut remplacer le cadre de référence temporel le plus classique où l'âge correspond au temps moins le moment de naissance et où le moment de naissance est invariant tout au long de la vie d'un individu. Ainsi, en va-t-il, par exemple, de la taille (ou du poids) des nourrissons, de leur taille (ou poids) à la naissance et de leur gain de taille (ou de poids) depuis la naissance.
Des diagrammes de Lexis ont été construits en remplaçant le temps par la taille (ou le poids) des nourrissons ; le moment de naissance, par leur taille (ou leur poids) à la naissance et l'âge, par la variation de leur taille (ou de leur poids) depuis la naissance. Les cohortes se définissent non plus par rapport au moment de naissance, mais par rapport à la taille (ou au poids) de naissance. Ces diagrammes ont montré qu'il existe une relation négative entre le gain de taille durant la première année de vie et la taille à la naissance, mais qu'aucune relation de ce type n'était pas présente dans le cas du poids.
L'équivalent d'une table d'extinction classique a été élaboré en remplaçant l'âge par le gain de taille (ou de poids). Par ailleurs, toujours en remplaçant l'âge par le gain de taille (ou de poids), des régressions logistiques ont permis d'identifier des variables ayant un effet significatif sur la croissance en taille ou en poids durant la première année de vie. Ces régressions ont notamment confirmé l'influence de la taille à la naissance sur le gain de taille et la non-influence du poids de naissance sur le gain de poids. Il est à noter que pour employer ces méthodes de la table ou de la régression, il faut en plus remplir certaines conditions ; si ce n'est pas le cas, il faut soit procéder à des adaptations, soit adopter des hypothèses supplémentaires, soit carrément renoncer à l'emploi de ces méthodes.
La réflexion menée dans ce travail a suggéré d'enrichir la panoplie des méthodes de l'analyse démographique : à l'analyse transversale classique se concentrant sur une période et donc sur un couloir vertical du diagramme de Lexis, on peut adjoindre un autre type d'analyse transversale portant cette fois sur un couloir horizontal. Si cette nouvelle perspective d'analyse est sans intérêt pratique avec le cadre de référence classique en temps, elle pourrait donner lieu à l'établissement de résultats dignes d'intérêt en cas de cadre de référence autre. Par ailleurs, ce travail aura aussi montré en quoi, dans certaines circonstances, la corrélation et la régression pourraient avoir intérêt à intégrer la notion de cohorte.
Si ce travail montre que le cadre de référence temporel n'est pas le seul envisageable, il ne débouche nullement sur la conclusion que ce cadre classique est à abandonner définitivement au profit d'autres. En effet, les variables temporelles présentent des spécificités qui les rendent particulièrement efficaces pour organiser une analyse.
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Estrutura genética populacional do camarão rosa Farfantepenaeus paulensis (Pérez-Farfante, 1967) nas costas sul e sudeste brasileiraTeodoro, Sarah de Souza Alves. January 2018 (has links)
Orientador: Rogério Caetano da Costa / Resumo: O camarão-rosa Farfantepenaeus paulensis é um dos mais importantes recursos pesqueiros da costa sul-sudeste do Brasil. Os fundos de pesca da espécie incluem dois estoques reprodutivos principais, localizados nas costas dos estados de Santa Catarina e São Paulo. A espécie apresenta ciclo de vida do tipo II, com uma fase reprodutiva no ambiente marinho e recrutamento juvenil em áreas estuarinas e baías. O conhecimento sobre o fluxo gênico entre estoques é a base de todo o ordenamento pesqueiro, uma vez que unidades genéticas podem apresentar características particulares e, normalmente, necessitam de estratégias específicas de manejo. Porém, há poucas informações que podem servir de subsídio para verificar se os diferentes estoques pesqueiros de F. paulensis também representam estoques genéticos distintos. O crescimento desordenado da frota industrial, o incremento da pesca artesanal nas áreas de criadouro, somado à pequena eficácia da legislação pesqueira, associados à ineficiência da fiscalização, levaram a um cenário de colapso da pescaria do camarão rosa no fim dos anos 90. Um melhor entendimento da estruturação genética das populações de F. paulensis é necessário, não somente pelo seu alto valor comercial e ecológico, mas também para permitir a implementação de medidas de manejo mais efetivas. Assim, o presente trabalho buscou avaliar a estruturação genética das populações do camarão rosa F. paulensis ao longo de sua distribuição no Atlântico Sul Ocidental, utilizando como ... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: The pink shrimp Farfantepenaeus paulensis is one of the most important fishing resources on the south-southeast coast of Brazil. The fishing zone of the species includes two main reproductive stocks, located on the coasts of Santa Catarina and São Paulo states. The species exhibits the type II life cycle, with an offshore reproductive stage and a juvenile recruitment in bays and estuarine areas. Knowledge on the amount of gene flow between stocks is the basis of all fisheries management, since genetic units may have particular characteristics and usually require specific management strategies. However, there is little information to verify whether F. paulensis's different fish stocks also represent different genetic stocks. The unrestricted growth of the industrial fleet, the increase in artisanal fishing in breeding areas, coupled with the low effectiveness of fisheries legislation and the inefficiency of inspection, led to a collapse of the pink shrimp fishery in the late 1990s. A better understanding of the genetic structuring of the populations of F. paulensis is necessary, not only for its high commercial and ecological value, but also to allow the implementation of more effective management measures. Thus, the present work aimed to assess the genetic structuring of the populations of the pink shrimp F. paulensis throughout its distribution in the Western South Atlantic, using as molecular marker the Control Region (D-loop) of the mitochondrial DNA (Chapter 1). In additi... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Doutor
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Socioekonomická analýza Středočeského kraje / Socioeconomic analysis of Central Bohemia regionMlýnek, Luboš January 2008 (has links)
This diploma describes basic socioeconomic characterictics of Region of Central Bohemia. It focuses mainly on demography, labour market, social and technical infrastructure and macroeconomics in this region. In theoretical part are mentioned the basic facts from these branches. In analytical part are described time progress mainly in years 2000 -- 2006, comparsion of subregions in Region of Central Bohemia, comparsion of other regions in Czech Republic and the dependence between indicators of particular parts. From knowledges has been made SWOT analysis and has been suggested arrangements for following developement of the region.
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An assessment of demographic parameters of African rhinoceros species (Diceros bicornis and Ceratotherium simum) and their significance to management in captivityRehse, Tracy 01 1900 (has links)
Captive-breeding has been identified as an integral part of the conservation of threatened species. The black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) as a species is currently listed by the IUCN as critically endangered (CR), while the white rhinoceros’s (Ceratotherium simum) current status is near-threatened (NT). Three African rhinoceros subspecies currently occur in captive populations in regional population management programmes, namely the South-central black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis minor), the Eastern black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis michaeli) and the Southern white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum simum). Concerns have been raised, however, that these populations are not self-sustainable. This study aims to analyze the demographic parameters that contribute to the growth rates of the global captive populations of African rhinoceros. The study sets out to determine if these global captive populations are currently self-sustaining, which demographic factors have the most influence on the population growth rates, and whether or not 50- and 100- year targets set for the captive African rhinoceros populations are attainable. Demographic data from 1 January 2010 until 31 December 2010 were analysed through population census, life table and age structure analyses. Two additional concerns, namely poor reproductive performance of the female F1 generation and male-biased birth sex ratios, were also assessed. The results indicate that the captive populations of D. b. minor and C. s. simum are not self-sustainable, with population growth rates (λ) of 0.98 and 0.99, respectively. Diceros bicornis michaeli is the only subspecies with a growing population, with a population growth rate of 1.02. Sensitivity analyses conclude that fecundity rates, and not mortality rates, are the limiting factor to population growth in all three subspecies. While lifetime reproductive success values for D. b. minor and C. s. simum captive-born females are far lower than those of the founder generation, several factors need further investigation to determine the true cause of this. Birth sex ratio analysis shows no significant difference from parity for both black rhinoceros subspecies, however, quadratic logit regression conducted on the white rhinoceros data indicated a statistically significant male-bias. In all three subspecies, no significant link was found between maternal age and the sex of the offspring. Overall, the results of this study show that the 50 year and 100 year targets set at the GCAP workshop in 1992 are achievable. However, D. b. minor will only be able to achieve the target population sizes with an increase in fecundity rate of around 170% or alternatively, additional supplementation from the wild. Recommendations for the future include a global study of breeding husbandry at an institutional level, and the formalisation of a Global Species Management plan for D. b. minor. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / I would like to acknowledge several organisations and people that have supported me throughout this MSc. The National Research Foundation (NRF), which provided me with the funding for my studies. My employer, The National Zoological Gardens of South Africa, a research facility of the NRF, and particularly the CEO, Dr Clifford Nxomani and my manager, Dr Abeda Dawood, who gave me support, encouragement and most importantly, time off to concentrate on this thesis. A special heartfelt thanks goes to my supervisors, Prof. Chris Chimimba, who never gave up on me, even though this study took a little bit longer than it was supposed to, and Dr Ed Stam, whose dedication, patience and endless comments (and good cappuccinos) helped shape this thesis. Lastly, my husband David, who always encourages me to do better and never allows me to become complacent; thank you, my love, for always pushing me to achieve. / Zoology and Entomology / MSc / Unrestricted
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Návštěvníci přírodního parku Ladronka a jejich zájem o pohybové aktivity / Visitors of the Nature Park Ladronka and their interest in movement activitiesHejhalová, Lenka January 2014 (has links)
3 ABSTRACT Title of project: Visitors of the Nature Park Ladronka and their interest in movement activities Aim of project: The goal of this Thesis is a socio-demographic analysis of the visitors of the Nature Park Ladronka and their motives for movement activities in this location in different season. Methods of project: All necessary data were collected by means of interviews directly in the Park Ladronka during this three weeks 25. - 31. 10. 2011 from 10:00-17:30, 23. - 29. 5. 2011 from 10:00-20:00 and 8. - 14. 8. 2011 from 10:00-20:00. The results were statistically processed using relative and absolute frequency. Results: The total number of respondents is 1,425. They are mostly - 32 % of visitors aged 20-29 - interested in the on-line skating track. The most common means of transport was for 40% of the visitors their car. The preferred sport for men (47 %) is running 42 % and gym 27 %, and for women (53 %) in-line skating 79 %. 14,5 % of visitors aged 20-29 are from housing estate. The park is visited mostly by students 32 % and people working on their computers 24 %. Key words: Natural fitness gym - sport for everyone - health grounds - outdoor activities - fitness trail - urban green - socio- demographic analysis
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Equity issues in HOV-to-HOT conversion on I-85 North in AtlantaZuyeva, Lyubov I. 08 April 2009 (has links)
This paper examines the issues of equity, as applicable to the HOV-to-HOT conversion project planned for the I-85 North corridor in the Metropolitan Atlanta Region. A review of literature is undertaken to describe the typology of transportation equity issues within the wider context of environmental justice, and to highlight socio-economic factors and local and national transportation funding factors that influence people's travel choices and their mobility and accessibility options. Demographic data on the I-85 corridor peak period commuters in Metropolitan Atlanta is analyzed, in addition to results of focus groups polling current Metropolitan Atlanta interstate commuters on the topic of managed lanes during 2008. The thesis makes a conclusion that a final decision about the equity impact of the I-85 HOV-to-HOT conversion is likely not possible without undertaking a Metropolitan area-wide analysis. Some of the equity findings that emerge indicate that there are no significant income differences between the the HOV lane users and general purpose lane I-85 commuters; that there are differences between median incomes of block groups represented by current I-85 commuters (both HOV lane users and general purpose lane users) and median incomes of block groups typical for the base geography; and that investing in Xpress bus service improvements would primarily serve those households with more vehicles than drivers, unless improvements to reverse commute options and feeder bus networks are made. The focus group findings suggest that current interstate highway users in Metropolitan Atlanta, originating in the suburbs, are generally accepting of the HOT concept and recognize the value of travel time savings.
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Důsledky stárnutí populace v jednotlivých krajích ČR / The consequences of aging population in regions of the Czech RepublicSamková, Alice January 2015 (has links)
In recent decades, the fact of an aging population has become one of the most discussed phenomena in all economically developed countries. Its main consequence is the increasing number of people relying on the assistance of another person. The goal of this thesis is to provide quantitative estimation and suggestions of the possible future need for social services for the elderly within the Czech Republic as such and also with the reference to the evolution of the situation in individual regions of the country. The introductory chapter deals with the demographic development of population in the Czech Republic and in all its regions individually, on the basis of which an obvious and steady trend of population aging is confirmed in the past and future years. The second chapter focuses on the characteristic of regional facilities in selected social services as well as on the costs and financing of such services. On the grounds of findings from the previous chapter, the final chapter is dedicated to the estimation of the future evolution of the care recipients in the senior age groups in all regions in the Czech Republic. All this consistently on the basis of the projection of the evolution of the population until the year 2050 and projections of the structure of the beneficiaries of care allowance by level of the dependence in the year 2010. The result of the analysis indicates that the existing capacity of social services for elderly will not be sufficient due to the trend of aging population. With regard to that fact, some possible measures, that could be a future source of a solution of this unfavorable situation, are suggested in the conclusion of this thesis.
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Matkou v pozdním věku: proměny pozdního mateřství od vzniku Československa po současnost / Being an Older Mother: Metamorphoses of Late Motherhood from the Foundation of Czechoslovakia up to the PresentŠimečková, Michaela January 2018 (has links)
Being an Older Mother: Metamorphoses of Late Motherhood from the Foundation of Czechoslovakia up to the Present Abstract The doctoral thesis gives a macro-structural view of the metamorphoses of late motherhood, here defined as motherhood of women aged over 35, as they have occurred in the Czech lands between 1920 and 2015. The study examines to which extent the reflection of late motherhood in selected professional and feminine / lifestyle periodicals converges with the findings derived from demographic data analysis. For this purpose, a mixed methods research has been conducted to link the conclusions from quantitative analysis of demographic data (demographic analysis and binary logistic regression) to those from qualitative and quantitative media analyses (discourse and content analyses). As the study shows, the development of late motherhood in the Czech lands varies across a range of possible perceptions in the media, levels and fertility rates. The thesis shows a strong coherence between the perception of late motherhood in the media and conclusions drawn from the demographic data analysis, which are consistent for most of the observed years. According to the results of the analysis, with some simplification, five different types of late motherhood are determined. The first type, the "Experienced...
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Hur mycket är kunder villiga att betala för hållbara hus? / How Much are Customers willing to pay for Sustainable Housing?Ragnarsson, Daniel, Twomey Bundgaard, Christian January 2024 (has links)
Denna uppsats undersöker konsumenters betalningsvilja för hållbara hus, med fokus på olika demografiska grupper och de faktorer som påverkar deras beslut. Studien syftar till att hjälpa byggföretag att utvärdera den ekonomiska genomförbarheten av att integrera hållbara metoder i sina projekt. Genom att använda en blandad metod sekventiellt förklarande-forskningsdesign inkluderar forskningen kvantitativa data från enkäter och kvalitativa data från expertintervjuer. Centrala fynd visar att även om hållbarhet inte är den primära drivkraften vid bostadsköp, finns det en betydande betalningsvilja för förbättrad energieffektivitet och minskad miljöpåverkan. Denna vilja varierar mellan olika demografiska grupper, där yngre generationer och kvinnor visar högre benägenhet att investera i hållbarhet. Studien belyser även fenomenet "hypotetisk bias", där den uttryckta betalningsviljan i enkäter överstiger den faktiska viljan i verkliga scenarier. Resultaten tyder på att integrering av hållbara lösningar kan vara ekonomiskt genomförbart för byggföretag, förutsatt att dessa lösningar erbjuder tydliga ekonomiska fördelar för konsumenterna. Framtida forskning bör undersöka långsiktiga trender i konsumentpreferenser och effekten av olika incitament för att främja hållbart byggande. / This thesis investigates consumer willingness to pay for sustainable buildings, focusing on different demographic groups and the factors influencing their decisions. The study aims to assist construction companies in evaluating the economic feasibility of incorporating sustainable practices into their projects. Utilizing a sequential explanatory mixed-methods approach, the research includes quantitative data from surveys and qualitative insights from expert interviews. Key findings reveal that while sustainability is not the primary driver in housing purchases, there is a significant willingness to pay for enhanced energy efficiency and reduced environmental impact. This willingness varies across demographics, with younger generations and women showing higher inclinations towards sustainable investments. The study also highlights the phenomenon of "hypothetical bias," where expressed willingness to pay in surveys exceeds actual willingness in real-life scenarios. The results suggest that integrating sustainable solutions can be economically viable for construction companies, provided these solutions offer clear economic benefits to consumers. Future research should explore the long-term trends in consumer preferences and the impact of various incentives on promoting sustainable housing
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Emploi et chômage en Algérie, évolution et transformaion de 1966 à 2014 / Employment and unemployment in Algeria, its evolution and transformationMekherbeche, Ghalem 27 February 2019 (has links)
Cette étude a pour objectif d’étudier l’emploi et le chômage, son évolution en Algérie de 1966 à 2014 ainsi que ses aspects sociodémographiques. L’étude du marché du travail algérien a montré que celui-ci a subi de profondes transformations à cause des événements démographiques et économiques qui ont jalonné le pays, tels que : l’expansion de l’emploi informel et féminin, le recul de l’emploi public et l’effondrement du secteur agricole. L’analyse des données des enquêtes emplois de l’ONS, montre l’impact de ces éléments sur les taux d’activité. Ces derniers ont connu une grande hausse durant les périodes de crise etparticulièrement dans les années 1990. Cette hausse était due, à la fois, à la croissance démographique et à la poussée de l’activité féminine. Pour le taux de chômage, il a atteint son niveau le plus bas en 1984. Cette baisse est imputée à la faible pression démographique sur le marché du travail comme à la politique économique suivie dans les années 1970. A partir de 1986, le niveau de chômage augmente et atteint un pic durant les années 1990. Cette hausse a été déclenchée par un ensemble de facteurs : l’arrivée en masse sur le marché du travail d’individus issus des générations du baby-boom, la baisse durable des prix des hydrocarbures , la crise politique et sécuritaire et l’arrivée d’un nombre croissant de femmes sur le marché du travail. De 2000 à 2013, le niveau de chômage tend à la baisse. En effet, la forte hausse des prix des hydrocarbures en cette période, a permis la création d’un volume important d’emplois non permanents. S’ajoute, à cela, la baisse de la pression démographique dans la même période. A partir de 2014, le niveau de chômage repart vers la hausse alors qu’en même temps les cours du prix du pétrole chutent.Cette thèse a également visé le marché de l’emploi à l’échelle locale. Ainsi, l’enquête menée dans la wilaya d’Oran a concerné cinq communes. L’exploitation des données de cette enquête a révélé une forte participation des femmes dans la vie active ; près de la moitié d’entre elles ont suivi un enseignement supérieur. Cela a influé sur le taux d’activité global qui est plus élevé que la moyenne nationale. Quant aux taux d’emploi, ils sont faibles dans les communes réputées pour leur structure industrielle et plus important dans les communes les plus agglomérées. S’agissant de l’âge moyen d’entrée dans le premier emploi, l’enquête a relevé que le niveau d’instruction joue un rôle déterminant dans la diminution de l’écart entre les hommes et les femmes: l’âge d’entrée dans un premier emploi chez les universitaires femmes et hommes est presque identique alors que pour le niveau d’instruction égal ou inférieur au moyen, les femmes entrent plus tardivement sur le marché de l’emploi par rapport aux hommes. En ce qui concerne les demandeurs d’emplois, les données de l’enquête ont abouti à un taux de chômage plus élevé que la moyenne nationale. Le niveau de chômage est plus élevé dans les communes réputées être le bassin d’emploi de la wilaya d’Oran. / This study aims to analyze employment, unemployment and their evolution in Algeria from 1966 to 2014 and their socio-demographic point of view. The study of the Algerian workforce has shown that there has been a profound transformation due to demographic and economic events which stand out as milestones such as: the expansion of informal work, women in the workforce, decreasing public sector employment and the collapse of agriculture. The analysis of studies by the ONS show the impact of these elements on the rate of activity. The latter has shown a large increase during periods of crisis and particularlyduring the 1990's.This demand was the result of the increase of population and the development of women in the workforce. Unemployment reached its lowest level in 1984. This reduction is due to low population demand and the political and economic situation in the 1970's. From 1986, unemployment increased and reached its peak in the 1990's. This rise was due to a number of factors: the arrival of the baby-boomers and an increased number of women in the workplace, low petrol prices, and the political and security crisis. From 2000 to 2013 unemployment lessened. In fact, the high price of petrol in this period created a large number of precarious jobs and a drop in demand. From 2014, unemployment increased while the price of petrol fell.This work also studies the marketplace on a local level via 5 communes in wilaya d'Oran. The analysis of the information reveals a strong female participation, almost half of them have tertiary qualifications. That has influenced the total activity which is higher than the national average. Employment is low in the communes with an industrial structure and more important in built-up areas.The study shows that the level of education for first job seekers plays an important role between the employment of men and women: the age of tertiary educated men and women entering their first job is almost equal, where the level of education of men and women is equal or less than the average, women enter the workforce later than men. The study reveals that the level of job-seekers is higher than the national average. The level of unemployment is higher in the labour pool of the communes of wilaya d'Oran.
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