Natural disasters in Argentina and Chile played a significant role in the state-formation and nation-building process (1822-1939). This dissertation explores state and society responses to earthquakes by studying public and private relief efforts reconstruction plans, crime and disorder, religious interpretations of catastrophes, national and transnational cultures of disaster, science and technology, and popular politics. Although Argentina and Chile share a political border and geological boundary, the two countries provide contrasting examples of state formation. Most disaster relief and reconstruction efforts emanated from the centralized Chilean state in Santiago. In Argentina, provincial officials made the majority of decisions in a catastrophe’s aftermath. Patriotic citizens raised money and collected clothing for survivors that helped to weave divergent regions together into a nation. The shared experience of earthquakes in all regions of Chile created a national disaster culture. Similarly, common disaster experiences, reciprocal relief efforts, and aid commissions linked Chileans with Western Argentine societies and generated a transnational disaster culture. Political leaders viewed reconstruction as opportunities to implement their visions for the nation on the urban landscape. These rebuilding projects threatened existing social hierarchies and often failed to come to fruition. Rebuilding brought new technologies from Europe to the Southern Cone. New building materials and systems, however, had to be adapted to the South American economic and natural environment. In a catastrophe’s aftermath, newspapers projected images of disorder and the authorities feared lawlessness and social unrest. Judicial and criminal records, however, show that crime often decreased after a disaster. Finally, nineteenth-century earthquakes heightened antagonism and conflict between the Catholic Church and the state. Conservative clergy asserted that disasters were divine punishments for the state’s anti-clerical measures and later railed against scientific explanations of earthquakes.

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Nos desastres catastróficos relacionados a eventos hidrometeorológicos ocorrem perdas e danos socioambientais incomensuráveis. Alguns deles têm destaque perante as autoridades que atuam no contexto da emergência e outros não. No Brasil, em geral, os animais gravemente afetados nesses desastres permanecem socialmente invisíveis. Tendo isso em conta, este estudo - que integra pesquisa bibliográfica, documental e de campo - inicia com considerações preliminares sobre a construção da racionalidade do especismo bem como do surgimento de uma preocupação política com a proteção de animais em contexto internacional de desastre. Em seguida, focaliza a dimensão sociopolítica brasileira que, com raras exceções, fundamenta a manutenção de práticas de desamparo aos animais em circunstâncias adversas. Por fim, através do caso do município de Teresópolis/RJ, destaca o protagonismo da sociedade civil organizada na proteção dos animais afetados no desastre ocorrido em 2011 bem como as tensões havidas com as autoridades locais. Conclui, destacando as contradições entre os avanços anunciados pelas autoridades de defesa civil do estado do Rio de Janeiro na proteção de animais de estimação nesse contexto de desastres e as práticas efetivas das autoridades municipais de Teresópolis. / Immeasurable social-environmental damage and losses occur in catastrophic disasters related to hydrometeorological events. Some of them have prominence to the authorities who work in the emergency context and others do not. In Brazil, in general, animals seriously affected in these disasters remain socially invisible. With that in mind, this study - which includes literature review, documentary research and field - begins with preliminary considerations on the construction of the rationality of speciesism and the emergence of a political concern for animal protection in the international context of disaster. Then, focuses on the Brazilian socio-political dimension that, with rare exceptions, grounds the maintenance of practices of abandonment of animals in adverse circumstances. Finally, through the case of the city of Teresopolis/RJ, highlights the role of civil society organizations, in the protection of animals affected in the disaster occurred in 2011, as well as the tensions with local authorities. Concludes, highlighting the contradictions between the advances announced by civil defense authorities of the state of Rio de Janeiro on animal protection, in this context of disasters, and the effective practices of municipal authorities of Teresopolis.

Trata-se de uma análise sócio-ambiental do fenômeno de enchentes, recorrente no município de Santo André/SP, permitindo identificar, de um lado, um esforço contínuo do poder público para combater esse fator de ameaça relacionado às chuvas. E, de outro, a persistência da vulnerabilidade espacial de populações de baixa renda na localidade, em especial, em áreas marginais. A dissertação levanta problemas que estão na área do gerenciamento do desastre de enchentes, descreve os processos sociais e urbanos, demonstra as vulnerabilidades e as ações tomadas para minimizálas, verificar quais são as perspectivas futuras para as vulnerabilidades e qual é o discurso coletivo das representações sociais dos afetados para as questões do risco, dos danos imateriais, o entendimento da política aplicada para as áreas de enchente, buscando a dimensão do desastre nas percepções dos atingidos pelas enchentes e inundações. Apresenta-se, daí, uma compreensão sociológica baseada no Discurso do Sujeito Coletivo (DSC) do relato padrão dos afetados na convivência com as enchentes. A pesquisa qualitativa, realizada através de entrevista, identifica um discurso coletivo de sofrimento que, ao lado das perdas materiais, revelam a ausência de cidadania para levar adiante alternativas para a segurança do lugar frente às enchentes. A dissertação visa destacar seu valor informativo para balizar as ações de gerenciamento de risco através das ações integradas de prevenção, preparação, resposta e recuperação mais eficazes no futuro. / This dissertation is about a social-environmental analysis of the floods phenomenon in Santo André city/SP, which, on one hand, allows us to identify a non-stop effort of the public power to beat this threat related to rain and, on the other hand, the spatial vulnerability persistence of the low-income population in the region, especially, on river banks. This dissertation brings up problems that are in the area of the flood disaster management, describes the social and urban processes, shows the vulnerability factors and the actions taken to minimize them. It verifies which the future prospects for the vulnerability factors are and which the collective speech of the social representatives of the affected people is, concerning the risk and immaterial damage issues. This dissertation also verifies the understanding of the policy applied to the flood areas, analysing the disaster dimension from the point of view of the ones affected by floods. Thus we have a sociological comprehension - based on Collective Subject Speech - of the standard-report of people affected by floods. The qualitative survey identifies a collective speech of pain that, besides the material loss, reveals lack of citizenship to carry on alternatives for the local safety against floods. This dissertation aims to highlight its information value to delimit the risk management actions through more efficatious integrated actions of prevention, preparation, response and recuperation in the future.

A região do Vale do Paraíba, situada em uma planície cortada pelo Rio Paraíba do Sul, entre as Serras da Mantiqueira e do Mar, possui alternância entre períodos secos e chuvosos, alcançando cerca de 1300 mm por ano. Todas estas características físicas somadas à disposição de moradias em várzeas e áreas com alta declividade contribuem para a ocorrência de desastres naturais. Deste modo, foi realizado o levantamento da vulnerabilidade climática aos desastres naturais da região do Vale do Paraíba. A pesquisa foi dividida em duas partes, passado e futuro. No passado (1990-2008) a região apresentou municípios vulneráveis aos desastres naturais como São José dos Campos, Jacareí, Campos dos Jordão, Taubaté e Aparecida. Os desastres naturais de maior ocorrência foram às inundações (54%) e as tempestades severas (25%) com maior frequência nos meses de janeiro, fevereiro e março. Para o futuro foram analisados dados de precipitação (2070-2100) para os cenários A2 e B2, a partir dos dados de simulação climática futura, modelo ETA/CCS, pela técnica de downscaling dinâmico, o modelo apontou para redução da precipitação na região, sendo de 44% para o cenário A2 e 35% para o cenário B2. Além da redução no total de precipitação, os dados futuros apontam para o aumento do período de dias de permanência de chuva, com predomínio de chuvas leves (0,1 a 5 mm), ou seja, haverá redução nos eventos extremos de precipitação, o que contribuiria para a diminuição de processos geradores de desastres naturais na região do Vale do Paraíba. / The region of Paraíba Valley, situated on a plain crossed by Paraiba do Sul River, between Mantiqueira and Mar mountain rigdes, alternates dry and wet periods, getting about 1300 mm of rain per year. The physical characteristics combined with the location of homes in low and flat lands alongside a watercourse and in areas with steep slopes contribute to the occurrence of natural disasters. This study of climate vulnerability and natural disasters in the region of Paraíba Valley. This research is divided into two parts: past and future. In the past (1990-2008) the region has vulnerable cities to natural disasters. Such as São José dos Campos, Jacareí, Campos do Jordão, Taubaté, and Aparecida. In these cities, the predominant natural disasters were floods (54%) and severe storms (25%) that occur frequently in the months of January, February and March. For the future precipitation data modeled (2070-2100) were analyzed for the scenarios A2 and B2 of IPCC, from the data of future climate simulation, (ETA / CCS model) by applying the dynamic downscaling technique. The model indicates reduced precipitation in the region (44% for A2 scenario and 35% for scenario B2). Besides the reduction in total precipitation, the future data point to the increase in the number of rainy days with the predominancy of ligth rains (0.1 to 5 mm), so, it will have a reduction in extreme precipitation events that could contribute to a decrease of natural disaster generating processes in the region of Paraíba Valley.

O objetivo central da tese foi compreender como se configura a aprendizagem nos processos organizativos de desastres. Realizei uma pesquisa qualitativa à luz da teoria ator-rede como inspiração teórico-metodológica, a partir do crime-desastre da Samarco/Vale/BHP Billiton ocorrido em novembro de 2015. Na primeira discussão teórica da tese, busquei aproximar processualmente os atos de organizar e aprender, por meio do conceito de aprendizagem organizativa. Na segunda discussão teórica, analisei as questões contemporâneas sobre a temática dos desastres do Brasil, propondo que os desastres são efeitos disruptivos em uma rede de relações heterogêneas, desiguais, atemporais e multiterritoriais, sendo as vulnerabilidades e os perigos constituídos relacionalmente. A pesquisa foi constituída por uma fase preliminar/exploratória e três momentos de imersão no campo: na etapa preliminar realizei um aprofundamento empírico sobre os desastres, especialmente a partir de experiências brasileiras; os três momentos de imersão foram no caso do desastre das empresas, com enfoque para os desdobramentos do desastre no Estado do Espírito Santo. Ao longo do primeiro ano do desastre-crime da Samarco/Vale/BHP, coletei e analisei 1.297 documentos, entrevistas (formais e informais) e registros em diários de campo. Todos os dados foram inseridos no software de análise qualitativa Atlas.ti. A metodologia e a análise dos dados foram realizadas a partir do mapeamento das principais controvérsias que emergiram das relações entre os atores do estudo, uma das possibilidades da teoria ator-rede enquanto método e que se constitui uma das contribuições desta pesquisa A partir das discussões teóricas e empíricas, foi possível observar que os desastres geram uma latência organizativa, que se constitui num estado abstrato e transitório de disposição para aprender a organizar. Essa latência impulsiona os processos de aprendizagem organizativa, que são os modos de cooperar e se fazer coletivamente, em movimento e instáveis, cognoscíveis pelo aprender e pelos saberes-em-ato (knowing); eles são estabelecidos numa rede de relações heterogêneas em múltiplas formas de espacialidades, podendo se inscrever e formar uma tessitura de práticas, sendo que as condições de possibilidades para a sua realização e participação não são dadas, podendo também servir como um meio para superar, combater as desigualdades, e formar outros fazeres e práticas. Pelas imersões de campo, foi possível analisar que os processos de aprendizagem organizativa se configuraram de modo excludente, nos quais alguns atores (como os sujeitos atingidos pelo desastre das empresas) foram ausências-presentes nesses processos. Dada a dinâmica formada pela exclusão e pelas tensões originadas nos conflitos, desigualdades e divergências (controvérsias), os processos organizativos se tornaram múltiplos, oportunizando que os sujeitos excluídos de algumas práticas organizativas pudessem aprender a se organizar em outras relações, para superar e combater as desigualdades geradas nos desastres. / The main objective of the thesis was to understand how learning is configured in organizational processes of disasters. I conducted a qualitative research in the light of actor-network theory as a theoretical-methodological inspiration, starting from the Samarco/Vale/BHP Billiton crime-disaster that occurred in November of 2015. In the first theoretical discussion of the thesis, I tried to procedurally approach the acts of organizing and learning, through the concept of organizational learning. In the second theoretical discussion, I analyzed contemporary issues on Brazil's disasters, proposing that disasters are disruptive effects in a network of heterogeneous, unequal, timeless and multi-territorial relations, with vulnerabilities and dangers being constituted relationally. The research consisted of a preliminary/exploratory phase and three moments of immersion in the field: in the preliminary stage I realized an empirical deepening on the disasters, especially from Brazilian experiences; the three moments of immersion were in the case of the disaster of the companies, with focus on the unfolding of the disaster in the State of Espírito Santo. Throughout the first year of the Samarco/Vale/BHP crime-disaster, I collected and analyzed 1,297 documents, interviews (formal and informal) and records in field journals. All data were entered into the qualitative analysis software Atlas.ti. The methodology and data analysis were performed from the mapping of the main controversies that emerged from the relations between the actors of the study, one of the possibilities of actor-network theory as a method and that is one of the contributions of this research From the theoretical and empirical discussions, it was possible to observe that disasters generate an organizational latency, which constitutes an abstract and transitory state of disposition to learn how to organize. This latency drives the processes of organizational learning, which are ways of cooperating and doing collectively, moving and unstable, knowable by learning and knowing-in-act; they are established in a network of heterogeneous relations in multiple forms of spatiality, and can register and form a texture of practices, and the conditions of possibilities for their realization and participation are not given, and can also serve as a means to overcome, combat inequalities, and to form other doings and practices. Due to the field immersions, it was possible to analyze that organizational learning processes were configured in an exclusive way, in which some actors (such as the subjects affected by corporate disaster) were present-absences in these processes. Given the dynamics of exclusion and tensions arisen from conflicts, inequalities, and divergences (controversies), organizational processes became multiple, allowing the excluded subjects of some organizational practices to learn to organize in other relationships, to overcome and combat inequalities generated by disasters.

The tourism sector in Stockholms city, Sweden, is a dynamic industry that through the years has generated large revenues and job openings. Unpredictable events such as terrorism, pandemics, natural disasters and climate changes, may have great imapct on the tourism sector. This may be true to most cities in the world including Stockholm. in this thesis, the effect of various unpredictable events has been investigated through interviews with city of Stockholm and the authority for community protection and preparedness. In use of strenghts, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT-analys). The main conclusion of this thesis is that the Covid-19 pandemic (year 2020) has shown that the emergency preparations for unpredictable events are incorrectly dimensiond. This means that the city of Stockholm needs to work more proactively in the future to ensure that the tourism sector is not jeopardized during upcoming unpredictable events.

La thèse étudie le risque météorologique et économique sous différents angles principalement dans les pays en développement. Elle se décompose en trois chapitres indépendants analysant dans diverses situations la corrélation des risques liés aux aléas météorologique et climatique ou économique, et étudie le potentiel de la région géographique étudiée pour mettre en place un système d’assurance contre le risque étudié. En effet, cette thèse étudie des risques très susceptibles d’être fortement corrélés : que cela concerne le risque météorologique ou climatique, ou le risque lié à la volatilité des prix, les villes voire pays voisins sont exposés aux mêmes risques et de façon simultanée. Cet aspect essentiel compromet la mutualisation du risque, paramètre primordial du modèle économique de l’assurance. A travers les trois chapitres de la thèse, nous étudierons le bénéfice lié à la mutualisation de ces risques a priori relativement corrélés. Le premier chapitre étudie la corrélation des prix du maïs en Tanzanie. A l’aide d’un modèle Copula-GARCH, la dépendance entre les cours du maïs des 20 marchés principaux du pays est modélisée et nous pouvons voir si le prix moyen du maïs est lissé en agrégeant les marchés. Cela permet de voir si l’intégration des marchés permet une efficace mutualisation du risque lié à la volatilité des prix. Le second chapitre s’attache au risque cyclonique dans les îles Pacifique sud et son impact sur les infrastructures. Ce papier propose une modélisation des cyclones tropicaux dans la région étudiée et la distribution de probabilité des cyclones associés à leur force, permettant ainsi de tenir compte du climat actuel pour modéliser les coûts. Avec les données liées aux infrastructures, nous calculons le coût des cyclones, y compris pour les événements extrêmes de très faible probabilité. Le troisième chapitre propose une extension d’un émulateur statistique des rendements agricoles selon des variables climatiques. Nous modélisons l’impact de l’accroissement marginal de la température, des précipitations ou de la concentration en CO2 en faisant une estimation statistique sur des modèles de culture et non sur des données historiques. Cela permet de prendre en compte des effets extrêmes sur des valeurs météorologiques pas ou peu observées jusqu’à présent. La robustesse du modèle est évaluée, entre autres, à l’aide de copules pour comparer la dépendance spatiale entre le modèle et notre émulateur statistique et vérifier que notre estimation capture bien la dépendance géographique. / The PhD dissertation studies meteorological and economic hazard under different angles and mostly in developing countries. It is composed of three independent chapters analyzing different situations dealing with meteorological and climatic or economic hazard correlation. It estimates the potential of the studied regions for implementing an insurance scheme for the risk. Indeed, this thesis studies risks very likely to be highly correlated: whether this is for the meteorological or climatic hazard, or the price volatility risk, neighbored cities or even countries are exposed to the same risk simultaneously. This essential aspect jeopardizes risk mutualization, a key parameter of the economic insurance model. Through the three chapters of this thesis, we study the benefits linked to the mutualization of a priori correlated risks. The first chapter deals with maize price correlation in Tanzania. Using a Copula-GARCH model, we model the dependence among the 20 main markets of the country and assess if the mean maize price is smoothed by aggregating the markets. Hence, we see whether markets integration allows an efficient risk mutualization against the risk of price volatility. The second chapter deals with tropical storms risk in the South Pacific islands and their impact on infrastructures. This paper proposes an artificial tropical cyclones modeling in the region studied as well as the probability distribution of the cyclone’s occurrence and strength. This enables us accounting for the current climate for modeling costs. With data on infrastructures, we calculate the cost due to tropical storms, including for very low probability extreme events. The third chapter proposes an extension for a statistical emulator of crop yields depending climatic variables. We model the marginal impact of an increase of temperature, precipitations and CO2 concentration by running a statistical estimation on crop models rather than historical data. It allows accounting for extreme effects caused by meteorological data values not observed so far. The model robustness is assessed, among others, with copulas to compare the spatial dependence between the model and our statistical emulator and check that our estimation captures the geographic dependence.

In this thesis, I conduct a global event-data study investigating the relationship between exposure to natural hazards and climate change adaptation. Exposure to natural hazards has previously been linked to actions aimed at reducing risks related to future natural hazards. With climate change, and predicted increase in hazard frequency and intensity, a feasible approach to risk mitigation is climate change adaptation, which can thus be considered a disaster risk reduction strategy. I investigate the effects of disaster frequency and severity on the amount of climate change adaptation actions taken on a subnational level of government, using disaster data from the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) and data on adaptation actions from CDP. Disaster severity is operationalised in three separate ways to distinguish between different kinds of disaster impacts: in terms of (1) economic damage, (2) how many are affected, and (3) fatalities. I hypothesise that all independent variables are positively related to climate change adaptation, and test the hypotheses using OLS regression. The result depicts a positive correlation between the number of disasters experienced and adaptation actions. I do not see a positive relationship between climate change adaptation actions and the two impact variables total affected and total fatalities. The relationship between economic damages and adaptation actions indicates that economic damages could have different impacts depending on the level of economic development in a country. This study contributes to the integration of the two research fields climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction by studying climate change adaptation as a form of disaster risk reduction, and deepening the knowledge of what can drive adaptation. Finally, this study contributes by showing that the level of economic development could be an important aspect of the exposure-adaptation relationship.

abstract: Small island developing states (SIDS) are on the very frontlines of climate change (UNDP, 2017). Increasing attention on the unique social, economic, and environmental vulnerabilities SIDS face has led to the discussion of the overall resilience of this population. Specifically, post-disaster studies of resilience carried out on SIDS have pointed to social resilience and education as two primary indicators of the overall resilience of these vulnerable communities (Aldrich, 2012; Muttarak & Lutz, 2014); yet social aspects of resilience related to SIDS have been underexplored, in comparison to ecological and economic themes (Berkes & Ross, 2013). Thus, the purpose of this qualitative study was to explore the personal and professional lived-natural disaster experiences of SIDS residents who are educators in order to understand their role in building social resilience within their community. In-depth interviews were conducted with educators employed at public and private schools in the United States Virgin Islands. The findings indicate that residents who are educators conceptualized resilience according to the following themes and sub-themes: (1) Social Process which involves Social Recovery and Community Alliances to ‘bounce back’ to an undefined level of normalcy and (2) Embodied Identity which was described in terms of Community Personifications of resilience as a trait in general citizens and educators. Participants identified internal and external resources as influential in how residents responded to natural disasters, by so doing, significantly contributing to positive post-disaster outcomes; these resources are referred to in the literature as protective factors (Rutter, 1985). The findings also demonstrate that educators had both a personal and professional responsibility to help their community contend with disasters, and this outcome is best explicated through the concept of protective factors. The research findings are significant because they: (1) contribute to the limited body of literature on social resilience in small island developing states, (2) demonstrate the importance of subjective perspectives in the development of disaster preparedness and management strategies for climate-vulnerable island populations, and (3) indicate a need for future research to use terminology which acknowledges the many ways in which disaster-prone communities have historically demonstrated and/or embodied resilience. / Dissertation/Thesis / Masters Thesis Community Resources and Development 2020