La question de l’efficacité de l’aide publique au développement est complexe et protéiforme. L’aide se présente sous de nombreuses formes et implique de nombreux instruments et acteurs, dont les objectifs et mêmes les philosophies diffèrent fortement entre les pays et les organisations. De cet enchevêtrement, les économistes ont jusqu’alors échoué dans leurs recherches de relations macroéconomiques robustes censées guider l’action publique. Ainsi, aucun consensus ne semble pour l’instant émerger de ce débat. Dès lors, l’orientation des politiques de développement a essentiellement été influencée par des hypothèses contestables reposant sur des fondements empiriques fragiles. Ce travail tente d’apporter de nouveaux éléments au débat sur l’efficacité de l’aide au travers de sept essais. Les trois premiers chapitres se consacrent à la question de la relation entre aide et croissance du point de vue statistique. Les nouvelles approches qui y sont proposées tentent de surmonter la plupart des défauts de la littérature empirique existante. Nous y montrons que la relation entre aide et croissance est extrêmement complexe et qu’il est difficile de l’appréhender à l’aide des méthodes économétriques usuelles. De plus, bien que l’aide semble globalement efficace en termes de croissance du PIB, son efficacité dépend de différents facteurs révélés par la présence de seuils aussi bien conditionnels que non-Conditionnels. Parmi ces facteurs, la vulnérabilité économique semble jouer un rôle primordial et sa prise en compte s’avère indispensable pour une compréhension globale du lien entre l’aide et la croissance économique. Dans une seconde partie, les deux chapitres suivants s’intéressent plus particulièrement à l’aide sectorielle, à travers l’étude de l’efficacité de deux initiatives largement reconnues que sont l’aide à la scolarisation primaire universelle et l’aide au commerce. Leur efficacité sera alors déterminée non plus en termes de croissance du PIB mais en termes de scolarisation et de performance à l’exportation. A l’instar des trois premiers chapitres, nos résultats semblent confirmer la présence d’une relation significative entre l’aide et les objectifs visés. Nos conclusions, notamment celles en termes d’éducation, vont clairement à l’encontre de l’idée selon laquelle l’aide aurait fait plus de mal que de bien. Enfin, en se basant sur les résultats précédents, les chapitres six et sept explorent, dans une troisième partie, les possibilités d’amélioration des stratégies actuelles d’allocation de l’aide mises en œuvre notamment par les grands bailleurs multilatéraux. Une de nos principales observations est que la vulnérabilité économique est un facteur important devant être pris en compte dans le design des méthodes d’allocation de l’aide. / Aid effectiveness is a complex issue. Aid comes in many instruments, has many targets and involves many stakeholders whose objectives, methods and philosophy greatly differ across countries and institutions. From this mixed bag, economists have struggled finding strong regularities at the macroeconomic level to guide the political debate and consensus have failed to emerge. Hence, political stances have often been influenced by strong assumptions based on weak or at least hotly debated evidence. This work is an attempt to provide new perspectives on the aid effectiveness debate through seven essays. The first three chapters address the technical question of the aid/growth relationship issue using new approaches and new statistical instruments in an attempt to overcome most of the caveats of the aid empirical literature. We show that the aid/growth relationship is complex and difficult to measure using common statistical methods. Moreover, while aid is globally effective, its effectiveness depends on different factors reflected by the existence of conditional and unconditional thresholds. Among those factors, economic vulnerability seems to be a key component that has to be taken into account in order to identify this relationship. In a second part, we try to assess the effectiveness of two flagship initiatives which are Aid for Trade and Universal Primary Education with regards to the outcomes they ultimately target, namely, export performance for the former and school enrolment, gender parity and repetition rate in primary school for the later. As in the first three chapters, our results support the existence of a significant relationship between aid and the targeted outcomes. Those results, notably for the education sector, clearly argue against the idea that aid has done more bad then good. Finally, based on previous results, in a third part, chapters six and seven explore the mean to improve the current aid allocation strategies used notably by the Multilateral Development Banks. One of the main conclusions is that economic vulnerability is a central factor to be taken into account in the design of aid allocation strategies.

本文旨在比較台灣閩南語常人、弛緩型(flaccid dysarthrics)、與痙攣型(spastic dysarthrics)神經性構音障礙病患子音絕對及相對音長之差異，並探討此病態語音在了解說話運動系統之特徵以及了解語言產製過程上可能的暗示。 結果顯示神經性構音障礙病患的子音絕對音長顯著長於常人受試者，但兩組病患延長的型態並不相同。首先，弛緩型病患子音音長顯著長於痙攣型病患；再者，以子音的帶音與否、發音位置、發音方法這三個向度來看，弛緩型病患之子音音長展現了全面性的延長，而痙攣型病患則產生了選擇性的延長，其子音之延長，大多集中在有聲子音上，這些差異乃因兩組病人病理狀況不同所致。 另一個結果則顯示，雖然神經性構音障礙病患，在子音音長呈現了延長的狀況，但在子音間相對音長次序上，仍保持到某種程度的完好，可是，子音雖保持一定的次序，但彼此間音長的差值及比值卻也發生了改變。而子音在音節中的所佔比例卻又和正常人無異。 因此，本文推斷，在常人子音的產製上，是要求精確的絕對音長，而且子音間音長亦要保持一定的相對關係；但若因病變致使說話者無法同時兼顧二者時，說話者會選擇犧牲絕對音長，而仍保持子音音長間的相互關係。這可能是語言產製與感知的一些經濟原則(principles of economy)互動所導致的結果。此外，構音障礙病患表就子音在音節中的相對時長這個向度上，和常人無異，這可能是語言文法與生理限制二項因素互動所致。 / This study aims (1) to investigate the absolute and relative timing of consonant duration in Taiwanese neurogenic dysarthric speech by means of acoustic measurements, (2) and to explore their implication on the characteristics of motor system and on the status of timing control in speech production. The results show that absolute consonant duration in flaccid and spastic dysarthric speech are significantly longer than that in normal controls. However, the "lengthening" phenomena display different patterns in flaccid and spastic groups. First, for the patients with the same degree of muscular dysfunction, the flaccid dysarthrics lengthen the consonant duration significantly greater than the spastic ones do. Second, whereas absolute consonant duration in flaccid group shows overall lengthening regardless of voicing state, stricture type, and place of articulation, that in spastic group displays selective lengthening. Besides, though the absolute consonant duration is lengthened in dysarthric speech, the durational opposition between consonants is more or less distinct. However, only the durational ranking between consonants (external timing relation) is maintained in dysarthric, but the durational distance or ratio between consonants (internal timing relation) is modified. Relative timing of consonant duration, that is, the consonant-to-syllable ratio (cs-ratio) within a syllable remains intact in dysarthric speech even though the segmental duration is lengthened. Lengthened absolute consonant duration in dysarthric speech is accounted for by the neurological deficits and compensatory effects. Longer absolute consonant duration in flaccid than in spastic speech is attributed to slowness and weakness without spasticity of speech musculature in flaccid dysarthria. Overall lengthening of consonant duration in flaccid group results from the entirely-impaired cranial nerves innervating speech musculature, whereas selective lengthening of consonant in spastic group is ascribed to spasticity and the selective pattern as well as directionality of neuromuscular impairments in spastic dysarthria. The reserved durational ranking between consonants in dysarthric speech may result from the compromise of principles of economy in speech production and perception. The normal-like CS-ratios in dysarthric speech stem from the interaction between biological constraints and the grammar of a language. Based on the data collected from dysarthric speech, this study discusses the temporal variance as well as invariance in speech motor system and the status of timing in the grammar of a language. The importance of principles of economy in speech production and perception is also indicated.

Among the species of Diomedea albatrosses, diverse foraging strategies during breeding have been described, indicating species differences in foraging ecology and behaviour. Foraging strategies of Southern Royal Albatrosses, Diomedea epomophora (SRA) breeding on Campbell Island were studied in January – early February 1999 during the latter half of incubation. Movements and activity of ten birds were monitored using satellite transmitters and wet-dry activity recorders. Three birds from a pilot tracking study in February 1997 were also included in some analyses. Foraging strategies, zones used, factors influencing the duration of foraging trips, and the influence of wind conditions were investigated. Foraging activity took place at sites with bathymetric characteristics associated with high productivity: outer shelf and shelf-break zones, with a concentration of activity on a shelf contour south of the Snares Islands. This is in contrast to Wandering (D. exulans) and Gibson’s (D. gibsoni) albatrosses, typically deep oceanic foragers, but is similar to Northern Royal Albatross (D. sanfordi). The maximum distance of foraging trips from the colony was 1250 kilometres (mean 584 +351(SD)). This was closer than for incubating Wandering and Gibson’s Albatrosses but more distant than for Northern Royal Albatross from the Otago Peninsula. The mean duration of 77 foraging trips from 52 nests was 10.11 days for females and 8.76 for males (ns). Foraging trips became shorter as incubation progressed. Foraging trips were shorter, but not significantly so, when the median wind speed throughout the foraging trip was higher. No significant relationship was found between bird mass and duration of foraging trips. The mean cumulative distance flown by the ten birds tracked in 1999 was 4262 km + 1318 (SD). Eight of the ten SRA employed a ‘commute, forage, commute’ foraging strategy, and the other two alternated short bouts of commuting and foraging. Commuting phases were characterised by rapid directional flight with a straight-line distance (range) of 180 km to 800 km between positions 24 hours apart. Foraging phases were characterised by a range of less than 180 km per 24 hour interval and frequent tight turns. Displacement rate between successive uplinks was significantly higher during commuting phases (28.6 kph + 1.93 SE) than foraging phases (15.1 kph + 1.4 SE). Wind strength and direction influenced the timing of the return commute to the colony. SRA covered greater distances at more favourable wind angles relative to flight track (broad reach and close reach) than in head, tail or direct side winds. Birds of low mass (< 8kg) made fewer landings in winds above 40 kph than in lighter winds, whereas heavier birds had a similar level of landing activity across all wind speed bands. One bird was delayed for several days by light winds, and another flew off course during strong winds. Two birds exploited the same window of wind conditions to return to the colony, each flying a similar course in both timing and route. These results define the foraging strategies of SRA during incubation, and demonstrate the influence of wind conditions and other factors on the overall duration of foraging trips and on the timing of commuting and foraging phases.

This thesis investigates the use of high-power lasers for synchrotron radiation sources with high brilliance, from the EUV to the hard X-ray spectral range. Hereby lasers accelerate electrons by laser-wakefield acceleration (LWFA), act as optical undulators, or both. Experimental evidence shows for the first time that LWFA electron bunches are shorter than the driving laser and have a length scale comparable to the plasma wavelength. Furthermore, a first proof of principle experiment demonstrates that LWFA electrons can be exploited to generate undulator radiation. Building upon these experimental findings, as well as extensive numerical simulations of Thomson scattering, the theoretical foundations of a novel interaction geometry for laser-matter interaction are developed. This new method is very general and when tailored towards relativistically moving targets not being limited by the focusability (Rayleigh length) of the laser, while it does not require a waveguide. In a theoretical investigation of Thomson scattering, the optical analogue of undulator radiation, the limits of Thomson sources in scaling towards higher peak brilliances are highlighted. This leads to a novel method for generating brilliant, highly tunable X-ray sources, which is highly energy efficient by circumventing the laser Rayleigh limit through a novel traveling-wave Thomson scattering (TWTS) geometry. This new method suggests increases in X-ray photon yields of 2-3 orders of magnitudes using existing lasers and a way towards efficient, optical undulators to drive a free-electron laser. The results presented here extend far beyond the scope of this work. The possibility to use lasers as particle accelerators, as well as optical undulators, leads to very compact and energy efficient synchrotron sources. The resulting monoenergetic radiation of high brilliance in a range from extreme ultraviolet (EUV) to hard X-ray radiation is of fundamental importance for basic research, medical applications, material and life sciences and is going to significantly contribute to a new generation of radiation sources and free-electron lasers (FELs).

Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich in Experiment und Theorie mit Laser-Plasma beschleunigten Elektronen und optischen Undulatoren zur Erzeugung von brillianter Synchrotronstrahlung. Zum ersten Mal wird experimentell nachgewießen, dass laserbeschleunigte Elektronenpulse kürzer als 30 fs sind. Ferner werden solche Elektronenpulse erstmalig in einem Demonstrationsexperiment durch einen magnetischen Undulator als Synchrotronstrahlenquelle genutzt. Aufbauend auf diesen experimentellen Erkenntnissen, sowie umfangreichen numerischen Simulationen zur Thomsonstreuung, werden die theoretischen Grundlagen einer neuartigen Interaktionsgeometrie für Laser-Materie Wechselwirkungen entwickelt. Diese neue, in der Anwendbarkeit sehr allgemeine Methode basiert auf raum-zeitlicher Laserpulsformung durch nichtlineare Winkeldispersion wie diese durch VLS- (varied-line spacing) Gitter erzeugt werden kann und hat den Vorteil nicht durch die Fokussierbarkeit des Lasers (Rayleighlänge) begrenzt zu sein. Zusammen mit laserbeschleunigten Elektronen ermöglicht dieser traveling-wave Thomson scattering (TWTS) benannte Ansatz neuartige, nur auf optischer Technologie basierende Synchrotronstrahlenquellen mit Zentimeter bis Meter langen optische Undulatoren. Die hierbei mit existierenden Lasern erzielbaren Brillianzen übersteigen diese bestehender Thomsonquellen-Designs um 2-3 Größenordnungen. Die hier vorgestellten Ergebnisse weisen weit über die Grenzen der vorliegenden Arbeit hinaus. Die Möglichkeit Laser als Teilchenbeschleuniger und auch optischen Undulator zu verwenden führt zu bauartbedingt sehr kompakten und energieeffizienten Synchrotronstrahlungsquellen. Die hieraus resultierende monochromatische Strahlung hoher Brillianz in einem Wellenlängenbereich von extremen ultraviolett (EUV) zu harten Röntgenstrahlen ist für die Grundlagenforschung, medizinische Anwendungen, Material- und Lebenswissenschaften von fundamentaler Bedeutung und wird maßgeblich zu einer neuen Generation ultrakurzer Strahlungsquellen und freien Elektronenlasern (FELs) beitragen. / This thesis investigates the use of high-power lasers for synchrotron radiation sources with high brilliance, from the EUV to the hard X-ray spectral range. Hereby lasers accelerate electrons by laser-wakefield acceleration (LWFA), act as optical undulators, or both. Experimental evidence shows for the first time that LWFA electron bunches are shorter than the driving laser and have a length scale comparable to the plasma wavelength. Furthermore, a first proof of principle experiment demonstrates that LWFA electrons can be exploited to generate undulator radiation. Building upon these experimental findings, as well as extensive numerical simulations of Thomson scattering, the theoretical foundations of a novel interaction geometry for laser-matter interaction are developed. This new method is very general and when tailored towards relativistically moving targets not being limited by the focusability (Rayleigh length) of the laser, while it does not require a waveguide. In a theoretical investigation of Thomson scattering, the optical analogue of undulator radiation, the limits of Thomson sources in scaling towards higher peak brilliances are highlighted. This leads to a novel method for generating brilliant, highly tunable X-ray sources, which is highly energy efficient by circumventing the laser Rayleigh limit through a novel traveling-wave Thomson scattering (TWTS) geometry. This new method suggests increases in X-ray photon yields of 2-3 orders of magnitudes using existing lasers and a way towards efficient, optical undulators to drive a free-electron laser. The results presented here extend far beyond the scope of this work. The possibility to use lasers as particle accelerators, as well as optical undulators, leads to very compact and energy efficient synchrotron sources. The resulting monoenergetic radiation of high brilliance in a range from extreme ultraviolet (EUV) to hard X-ray radiation is of fundamental importance for basic research, medical applications, material and life sciences and is going to significantly contribute to a new generation of radiation sources and free-electron lasers (FELs).

From the Proceedings of the 1971 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 22-23, 1971, Tempe, Arizona / Quantitative descriptions of regional differences of rainfall amounts and intensities in the southwest, such as depth-duration frequencies, generally have ignored differences in the storm system that generated the rainfall and have lumped essentially different storm systems together. Thunderstorm rainfall in southern Arizona and New Mexico were analyzed using data from both recording and standard rain gages. The results were somewhat conflicting. Possibly because of more frontal activity and less distance from the Gulf of Mexico., the thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico can be more intense than those in southeastern Arizona. Recording rain gage records suggest that air-mass thunderstorms produce a larger number of more intense short-duration (about 1 hour or less) rains in southeastern Arizona than in other parts of southern Arizona. However, standard rain gage records from southern Arizona indicate that rainfall from individual air-mass thunderstorms may be greater in south-central Arizona than in se or sw Arizona. But frequency analysis of standard gage data from air-mass storms shows that the 100-year point rainfall is about 3 inches in all 3 regions. With more data becoming available, especially from remote areas, more exact separation of thunderstorm types and a better definition of rainfall will soon be possible.

The research in the field of travel demand modeling is driven by the need to understand individuals’ behavior in the context of travel-related decisions as accurately as possible. In this regard, the activity-based approach to modeling travel demand has received substantial attention in the past decade, both in the research arena as well as in practice. At the same time, recent efforts have been focused on more fully realizing the potential of activity-based models by explicitly recognizing the multi-dimensional nature of activity-travel decisions. However, as more behavioral elements/dimensions are added, the dimensionality of the model systems tends to explode, making the estimation of such models all but infeasible using traditional inference methods. As a result, analysts and practitioners often trade-off between recognizing attributes that will make a model behaviorally more representative (from a theoretical viewpoint) and being able to estimate/implement a model (from a practical viewpoint). An alternative approach to deal with the estimation complications arising from multi-dimensional choice situations is the technique of composite marginal likelihood (CML). This is an estimation technique that is gaining substantial attention in the statistics field, though there has been relatively little coverage of this method in transportation and other fields. The CML approach is a conceptually and pedagogically simpler simulation-free procedure (relative to traditional approaches that employ simulation techniques), and has the advantage of reproducibility of the results. Under the usual regularity assumptions, the CML estimator is consistent, unbiased, and asymptotically normally distributed. The discussion above indicates that the CML approach has the potential to contribute in the area of travel demand modeling in a significant way. For example, the approach can be used to develop conceptually and behaviorally more appealing models to examine individuals’ travel decisions in a joint framework. The overarching goal of the current research work is to demonstrate the applicability of the CML approach in the area of activity-travel demand modeling and to highlight the enhanced features of the choice models estimated using the CML approach. The goal of the dissertation is achieved in three steps as follows: (1) by evaluating the performance of the CML approach in multivariate situations, (2) by developing multidimensional choice models using the CML approach, and (3) by demonstrating applications of the multidimensional choice models developed in the current dissertation. / text

The spread of exotic species is considered to be one of the most significant threats to ecosystems and emphasises the need for appropriate management interventions. The majority of marine non-indigenous species (NIS) are believed to have been introduced via ship biofouling and their domestic spread continues to take place via this mechanism. In some countries, biosecurity systems have been developed to prevent the introduction of NIS through biofouling. However, implementing biosecurity strategies is difficult due to the challenges around identifying high-risk vectors. Reliable predictors of risk have remained elusive, in part due to a lack of scientific knowledge. Nonetheless, invasion ecology is an active scientific field that aims to build this knowledge. Propagule pressure is of particular interest in invasion ecology as it describes the quantity and quality of the propagules introduced into a recipient region and is considered to be an important determinant in the successful establishment of NIS. Environmental history affects health and reproductive output of an organism and, therefore, it is beneficial to examine this experimentally in the context of biofouling and propagule pressure. The aim of this thesis was to examine how voyage characteristics influence biofouling recruitment, survivorship, growth, reproduction and offspring performance through the ship invasion pathway. This was to provide fundamental knowledge to assist managers with identifying high-risk vessels that are likely to facilitate the introduction or domestic spread of NIS, and to understand the processes affecting biofouling organisms during long-distance dispersal events. Chapter One provides an introduction to the issues addressed in this thesis. Each data chapter (Chapters Two – Five) then focused on a stage of the invasion process and included field experiments using a model organism, Bugula neritina. Finally, Chapter Six provides a summary of key findings, discussion and the implications to biosecurity management. Throughout this thesis, the effect of donor port residency period on the success of recruits was highlighted. Chapter Two focused on recruitment in the donor region. As expected, recruitment increased with residency period. Importantly, recruitment occurred every day on vulnerable surfaces, therefore, periods as short as only a few days are able to entrain recruits to a vessel hull. The study presented in Chapter Three showed that there was high survivorship of B. neritina recruits during 12 translocation scenarios tested. In particular, the juvenile short-residency recruits (1-8 days) survived voyages of 8 days at a speed of 18 knots; the longest and fastest voyage simulated. Interestingly, variation in voyage speed and voyage duration had no effect on the survivorship of recruits, but did have legacy effects on post-voyage growth. Again, B. neritina which recruited over very short residency periods of 1 day continued to perform well after translocation and had the highest level of reproductive output after the voyage scenarios (Chapter Four). Recruits that were older (32-days) and reproductively mature at the commencement of the scenarios failed to release any propagules. Even though the number of ‘at sea’ and ‘port residency’ days were equal, reproductive output was higher after short and frequent voyages than after long and infrequent voyages. Finally, the study presented in Chapter Five examined transgenerational effects of B. nertina. Results showed that although the environmental history of the parent colony had a carry-over effect on offspring performance, it was the offspring environment that was a stronger determinant of success (measured by reproductive output and growth). Although cross-vector spread is possible (i.e. parent and offspring both fouling an active vessel), offspring released from a hull fouling parent into a recipient environment will perform better. In combination, these studies have provided new insights into NIS transport via vessel biofouling. Although shipping pathways are dynamic and complex, these results suggest that juvenile stages that recruit over short residency periods and are then translocated on short voyages, may pose a higher risk for NIS introduction than originally assumed. This has implications for marine biosecurity management as short residency periods are common and short, frequent voyages are typical of domestic vessel movements which are largely unmanaged.

Cette étude vise à évaluer l’impact de l’état nutritionnel et de son évolution durant l’attente d’une transplantation pulmonaire sur la mortalité et la morbidité postopératoire. Nous avons examiné les 209 dossiers de patients greffés pulmonaires au Programme de Transplantation Pulmonaire du CHUM entre 2000 et 2007 et regardé la mortalité et les complications post-transplantation en fonction de l’IMC, des apports protéino-énergétiques, de certains paramètres biochimiques et selon l’évolution pondérale durant la période d’attente. Les résultats montrent que la mortalité augmente en fonction de l’augmentation des strates d’IMC avec un risque relatif de décès au cours du séjour hospitalier de 3,31 (IC95% 1,19-9,26) pour un IMC 25-29,9 et de 8,83 (IC95% 2,98-26,18) pour un IMC ≥ 30 avec une issue postopératoire plus sombre en terme de complications chirurgicales (p=0,003), de durée de séjour aux soins intensifs (p=0,031) et de durée de séjour à l’hôpital (p<0,001) chez les patients avec IMC ≥ 30 comparativement aux patients de poids normal. Les patients ayant présenté une évolution inadéquate de l’IMC durant la période d’attente ont connu une durée de séjour hospitalier prolongée (p=0,015). Ceux dont les apports nutritionnels étaient sous-optimaux en pré-greffe ont aussi connu une durée de séjour hospitalier prolongée (p=0,002) et davantage de complications infectieuses (p=0,038), digestives (p=0,003) et chirurgicales (p=0,029) mais sans impact détectable sur la mortalité. Nos résultats suggèrent que l’obésité et l’embonpoint ainsi qu’une évolution inadéquate de l’IMC durant la période d’attente de même que des apports protéino-énergétiques sous-optimaux affectent négativement l’issue d’une transplantation pulmonaire. / This study aims to assess the impact of nutritional status and its evolution while awaiting a lung transplant on the post-operative mortality and morbidity. We reviewed 209 consecutive cases of lung transplantation at the Centre Hospitalier de l’Universite de Montreal between 2000 and 2007 and looked at the mortality and rate of complications post-operatively according to BMI, intake of protein and energy, biochemical parameters and weight changes during the waiting period. The risk of death increased with increasing BMI strata with a relative risk of death during the hospital stay of 3,31 (IC95% 1,19-9,26) for BMI 25-29.9 and 8,83 (IC95% 2,98-26,18) for BMI ≥ 30 with a worse postoperative outcome in terms of surgical complications (p=0,003), length of stay in intensive care unit (p=0,031) and length of hospital stay (p<0,001) for patients with BMI ≥ 30 compared with patients of normal weight. Patients in whom the BMI evolved inadequately during the waiting period experienced a prolonged hospital stay (p=0,015). Patients whose intake was suboptimal in the pre-transplant period have also a prolonged hospital stay (p=0,002) and more infectious (p=0,038), digestives (p=0,003) and surgicals (p=0,029) complications but no detectable impact on the mortality. Our results suggest that obesity and overweight as well as inadequate changes of BMI during the waiting period and suboptimal protein-energy intakes negatively affect the outcome of lung transplantation.

Water is essential for human well-being and healthy ecosystems, but population growth and changes in climate and land-use are putting increased stress on water resources in many regions. To ensure water security, knowledge about the spatiotemporal distribution of these resources is of great importance. However, estimates of global water resources are constrained by limitations in availability and quality of data. This thesis explores the quality of both observational and modelled data, gives an overview of models used for large-scale hydrological modelling, and explores the possibilities to deal with the scarcity of data by prediction of flow-duration curves. The evaluation of the quality of observational data for large-scale hydrological modelling was based on both hydrographic data, and model forcing and evaluation data for basins worldwide. The results showed that a GIS polygon dataset outperformed all gridded hydrographic products analysed in terms of representation of basin areas. Through a screening methodology based on the long-term water-balance equation it was shown that as many as 8–43% of the basins analysed displayed inconsistencies between forcing (precipitation and potential evaporation) and evaluation (discharge) data depending on how datasets were combined. These data could prove disinformative in hydrological model inference and analysis. The quality of key hydrological variables from a numerical weather prediction model was assessed by benchmarking against observational datasets and by analysis of the internal land-surface water budgets of several different model setups. Long-term imbalances were found between precipitation and evaporation on the global scale and between precipitation, evaporation and runoff on both cell and basin scales. These imbalances were mainly attributed to the data assimilation system in which soil moisture is used as a nudge factor to improve weather forecasts. Regionalisation, i.e. transfer of information from data-rich areas to data-sparse areas, is a necessity in hydrology because of a lack of observed data in many areas. In this thesis, the possibility to predict flow-duration curves in ungauged basins was explored by testing several different methodologies including machine learning. The results were mixed, with some well predicted curves, but many predicted curves exhibited large biases and several methods resulted in unrealistic curves. / Vatten är en förutsättning för människors och ekosystems hälsa, men befolkningsökning och förändringar av klimat och markanvändning förväntas öka trycket på vattenresurserna i många regioner i världen. För att kunna säkerställa en god tillgång till vatten krävs kunskap om hur dessa resurser varierar i tid och rum. Tillförlitligheten hos skattningar av globala vattenresurser begränsas dock både av begränsad tillgänglighet av och kvalitet hos observerade data. Denna avhandling utforskar kvaliteten av såväl observations- som modellbaserade data, ger en överblick över modeller som används för storskalig hydrologisk modellering och utforskar möjligheterna att förutsäga varaktighetskurvor som ett sätt att hantera bristen på data i många områden. Utvärderingen av observationsbaserade datas kvalitet baserades på hydrografiska data och driv- och utvärderingsdata för storskaliga hydrologiska modeller. Resultaten visade att en uppsättning data över hydrografin baserad på GIS-polygoner representerade avrinningsområdesareorna bättre än alla de som byggde på rutor. En metod baserad på långtidsvattenbalansen identifierade att kombinationen av drivdata (nederbörd och potentiell avdunstning) och utvärderingsdata (vattenföring) var fysiskt orimlig för så många som 8–43 % av de analyserade avrinningsområdena beroende på hur olika datauppsättningar kombinerades. Sådana data kan vara desinformativa för slutsatser som dras av resultat från hydrologiska modeller och analyser. Kvaliteten hos hydrologiskt viktiga variabler från en numerisk väderprognosmodell utvärderades dels genom jämförelser med observationsdata och dels genom analys av landytans vattenbudget för ett flertal olika modellvarianter. Resultaten visade obalanser mellan långtidsvärden av nederbörd och avdunstning i global skala och mellan långtidsvärden av nederbörd, avdunstning och avrinning i både modellrute- och avrinningsområdesskala. Dessa obalanser skulle till stor del kunna förklaras av den data assimilering som görs, i vilken markvattenlagret används som en justeringsfaktor för att förbättra väderprognoserna. Regionalisering, som innebär en överföring av information från områden med god tillgång på mätdata till områden med otillräcklig tillgång, är i många fall nödvändig för hydrologisk analys på grund av att mätdata saknas i många områden. I denna avhandling utforskades möjligheten att förutsäga varaktighetskurvor för avrinningsområden utan vattenföringsdata genom flera metoder inklusive maskininlärning. Resultaten var blandade med en del kurvor som förutsas väl, och andra kurvor som visade stora systematiska avvikelser. Flera metoder resulterade i orealistiska kurvor (ickemonotona eller med negativa värden).