[pt] Desde que o novo modelo institucional do setor elétrico brasileiro passou a vigorar em 2004, a oferta de energia termelétrica, nos leilões de energia nova, vem se mostrando muito concentrada em tecnologias de alto custo variável (unitário), principalmente, em usinas movidas a óleo combustível e a diesel. Desta maneira, esta dissertação tem como objetivo inicial compreender de que forma os aspectos institucionais do novo marco regulatório se interagem com as características físicas e tecnológicas das usinas, de modo a propiciar uma provável vantagem competitiva em favor das usinas de alto custo variável. Este estudo tem ainda o objetivo de investigar o mecanismo do Índice de Custo Benefício (ICB), utilizado pelas entidades governamentais como critério de eficiência para a seleção, nos leilões de energia nova, dos projetos termelétricos mais competitivos. Deseja-se averiguar se este mecanismo gera os incentivos corretos sobre os empreendedores termelétricos, de modo que seja uma estratégia ótima para o empreendedor reportar o verdadeiro valor de seu custo variável à Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE). Os resultados teóricos encontrados e os resultados obtidos pelos procedimentos de simulação indicam que a estratégia ótima para o empreendedor não é, em geral, reportar seu custo variável verdadeiro à EPE. Mais ainda, os resultados mostram que esta estratégia ótima é dependente das expectativas dos investidores acerca dos preços futuros de energia. Quanto mais elevados forem os preços futuros esperados, maior tenderá a ser o custo variável declarado pelo empreendedor. / [en] Since the implementation of the new regulatory framework of the Brazilian electrical sector in 2004, the supply of thermo electrical power in the new energy auctions has been very concentrated in high (unitary) variable costs technologies, mainly, in plants powered by fuel oil and diesel. In this way, this dissertation has as initial objective to understand how the institutional aspects of the new regulatory framework interact with the physical and technological characteristics of the power plants in a way to create a likely competitive advantage in favor of the high variable cost power plants. This study has also as an objective to investigate the Index of Cost Benefit (ICB) which is used by the government entities as criterion of efficiency to select, in the new energy auctions, the most competitive thermo electrical projects. The study aims to verify if this mechanism induces the right incentives on the thermo power entrepreneurs, in a way that it would be an optimal strategy for the entrepreneur to report the actual value of his variable cost to the Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE). The theoretical results and the simulation proceedings results both indicate that the optimal strategy to the entrepreneur is not in general to report the truthful variable cost to EPE. Moreover, the results show that the optimal reporting strategy is dependent of the beliefs the investors have concerning the future energy prices. The higher the expectations regarding the future prices, the higher will tend to be the entrepreneur reported variable cost.

[pt] O Setor Elétrico Brasileiro (SEB) passou por uma grande reestruturação, saindo de uma situação de monopólio estatal para uma de desestatização regulamentada. Neste processo, a interação entre os agentes, causada pelas privatizações ocorridas no setor, passou a condicionar a formação dos preços do mercado de energia elétrica e, consequentemente, dos contratos dela derivados. O presente trabalho coloca a eletricidade no contexto das outras commodities e debate suas características específicas; apresenta o Setor Elétrico Brasileiro (SEB) e o Mercado Brasileiro de Energia Elétrica e discute a Formação dos Preços no Mercado de Curto Prazo Brasileiro. Foram usados dados históricos para a estimação dos parâmetros de um modelo que capta as principais características dos preços spot de energia elétrica e, lançando mão do Método de Monte Carlo (MMC) para a simulação desses preços, foi analisada a flexibilidade de compra e venda parcial de um contrato de energia elétrica, usando a Teoria de Opções Reais (TOR). Concluiu-se que essa flexibilidade agrega valor aos contratos de energia. / [en] The Brazilian Electric Power Industry (SEB) has undergone a major restructuring moving from a situation of state monopoly to a regulated privatization. In this process, interaction among agents took place in the industry, influencing electricity spot prices and consequently power derivative contracts. This work: places electric power in the context of other commodities and discusses its specific characteristics; presents the Brazilian Power Companies and the Brazilian Electricity Market and discusses the formation of short-term prices in Brazil. We used historical data to carry out the parameters estimation of a model that captures the main characteristics of electricity spot prices and we analyzed a flexibility of partial buying or selling of one energy contract using the Real Options Approach (ROA), employing Monte Carlo Method (MCM) to simulate these prices. We concluded that this flexibility adds value to power contracts.

[pt] Desde 2001, quando ocorreu uma crise no setor energético brasileiro, o planejamento e, consequentemente, a previsão do consumo de energia a médio e longo prazo do consumo de eletricidade vem sendo prioridade. A Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, por meio do Plano Decenal de Energia e do Plano Nacional de Energia, é a responsável por publicar tais previsões, tendo como versão mais atual os horizontes de 2023 e 2050, respectivamente. Este trabalho tem como objetivo principal modelar e prever as séries de consumo através de duas abordagens, top down e bottom up. Para a primeira utiliza-se os métodos de suavização exponencial de Pegels e para a segunda, aplica-se, o modelo FORECAST-Residential, desenvolvido pelo Fraunhofer Institute. O modelo top down é o responsável por modelar e prever o consumo de energia elétrica do Brasil agregado e desagregado por classes de consumo, enquanto que o bottom up será utilizado somente nas séries do setor residencial, em cada região geográfica. Além da previsão com o melhor modelo dentro do histórico para o primeiro caso, para as técnicas Standard e Damped Pegels otimiza-se os hiperparâmetros a fim de ajustar cada um dos valores projetados com as pesquisas disponibilizadas pela EPE. Os resultados mostraram que com a abordagem top down foi possível prever o consumo de eletricidade até 2050 para todos os setores energéticos e ajustar os parâmetros para cada um dos casos propostos; e, com a abordagem bottom up, chegou-se a valores considerados prováveis para o setor residencial do Brasil. Finalmente, é possível concluir que todos os resultados aqui são muito promissores e dão direções para futuros aperfeiçoamentos. / [en] After the 2001 energy crises in Brazil, the energy sector priority has been the planning and consequently the forecast middle and long term energy consumption. The Energy Research Company (EPE for short) is in charge of publishing two official reports: The Ten Year Energy Planning and The National Energy Planning which contain, among other things, the forecast for longer lead times. In the present formulation these horizons are 2023 and 2050. This work aims to model and predict the consumption series with two approaches, top down and bottom up. The first uses Pegels exponential smoothing methods and for the second is applied the model FORECAST Residential, developed by the Fraunhofer Institute, Germany. The top-down model is responsible for modeling and predicting Brazil energy consumption aggregated and disaggregated by class of consumption, while the bottom up will be used only in the residential sector, but for each geographic region. In addition to the forecast with the best model in sample for the top down case, an optimization of the model hyper parameters is carried out in order to adjust each of the projected values with the figures provided by EPE. The results obtained show that with the top down approach it is possible to predict satisfactorily the electricity consumption up to 2050 for all energy sectors; and the bottom up approach produce forecasts very likely to occur in the future. Finally, it is possible to conclude that all the results obtained here are very promising and give directions for future improvements.

The electrical industry is considered a high-risk industry, with workers constantly working in close relation to high voltages and in a workplace which constantly changes. This emphasizes the need for a proper safety management system, in order to identify and manage risk at each and every workplace. The aim of this study is to explore the safety management dynamics and interplay between management and workers in regard to safety in the electrical grid industry. This, with the purpose of identifying which deficiencies exist in the interaction, and how existing safety management theories can be applied in order to explain the deficiencies identified. This is done though a qualitative, single case study. The research method uses an abductive approach, and data is collected through both participant observations and semi-structured interviews with managers and workers in order to compare the difference in perception of the current safety management system at the studied organization. The result is analyzed using a thematic analysis, in which four different themes are found, communication, organizational culture, organizational dynamics, and safety practices. The study identifies flawed communication as an underlying issue which results in multiple following deficiencies. A lack of organizational transparency and inefficient communication methods, fuels a confusion regarding the purpose and efficiency of safety measures, and undermines the workers trust in management’s commitment to safety. Consequently, workers perceived organizational support decreases, as well as their willingness to engage in constructive voice behavior and following safety protocol. This gap in understanding between management and workers forms organizational silos between the two actors, where not only communication and collaboration further decrease, but also a social identity within the groups where the other side isn’t seen as a collaborator, but rather a hinderance. The study concludes that the deficiencies in the organizational communication has created a downward spiral, exacerbating the gap between management and workers, and hinders the safety management system. Addressing the deficiencies identified in this study, one should focus on enhancing communication, fostering a mutual trust, and actively promote and prioritize workers engagement to safety practices.

[pt] O Setor Elétrico Brasileiro (SEB) vem passando por diversas mudanças. A reforma iniciada em 1993 implicou na alteração da característica do setor de ser até então majoritariamente estatal. As alterações no SEB nos anos de 2003 e 2004 implementaram os chamados Ambientes de Contratação Regulado e Livre, respectivamente ACR e ACL. Recentemente, mais mudanças estruturais marcaram o SEB com a nova Lei de número 12.783/13, que trata da renovação das concessões do setor. Neste contexto, destacam-se os empreendimentos eólicos e seu aumento de participação na matriz elétrica brasileira. A matriz elétrica brasileira permanece majoritariamente hídrica, contudo o segmento eólico tem se destacado nos leilões de energia, apresentando com frequencia preços mais competitivos que projetos de Pequenas Centrais Hidrelétricas (PCHs) e térmicas movidas à biomassa. Desta forma, dada a importância crescente da fonte eólica de energia, o presente trabalho propõe a aplicação de um modelo de avaliação de uma planta eólica em condições de incerteza, com a utilização da Teoria das Opções Reais. A flexibilidade abordada no trabalho em tela foi incorporada na escolha do mecanismo de venda da energia gerada. Neste sentido, considerou-se que o montante de energia não negociado no ACR (através de Leilões regulados) poderá ter a opção de ser negociado em contratos bilaterais no ACL ou liquidado no mercado de curto prazo ao Preço de Liquidação de Diferenças (PLD). Os resultados indicaram um aumento no valor do projeto com a inclusão desta flexibilidade. / [en] The Brazilian Electric Power Industry (SEB) has been going through many changes. The reform begun in 1993 resulted in a modification on characteristics of this sector that was mainly controlled by the government until that time. The changes in SEB occurred in 2003 and 2004 resulted in the creation of the Regulated Contracting Environment (ACR) and the Free Contracting Environment (ACL). Recently, new modifications happened in this sector with the law number 12.783/13, which regulates the Renovation of Concessions in the sector. In this context, it can be highlighted the wind power projects and their increasing participation in Brazilian electricity generation matrix. The Brazilian electricity generation matrix is still concentrated in hydroelectrical generation. However, wind power plants have been standing out in the last auctions, with more competitive prices than Small Hydro Power (PCH) and biomass projects. Therefore, considering the increasing importance of wind power source, this work proposes the application of an investment model under uncertainty for evaluating a wind power plant using the Real Option Theory. The flexibility used in this work refers to the choice of the mechanism for selling the generated energy. In this sense, it was assumed that the amount of generated energy which wouldn’t be contracted in the ACR could have the possibility of being negotiated in contracts in the ACL or it would be sold in the short-term market through the Differences Settlement Price (PLD). Results indicate an increase in the project value with the inclusion of this flexibility.

[pt] No setor elétrico brasileiro, o modelo regulatório é o mecanismo pelo qual se mantém o equilíbrio de interesses das organizações que atuam neste setor e, este se dá, a partir do balanceamento entre a sua racionalidade interna e o seu ambiente externo, para assim proporcionar condições favoráveis a produção, transmissão e distribuição de energia, e, para o benefício da sociedade. O objetivo principal desta dissertação é apontar como a dinâmica dos atores atuantes no setor elétrico - os consumidores, agência reguladora, empresas distribuidoras, transmissoras e geradoras de energia - e de que forma como estes atores respondem ao modelo regulatório proposto, seja criando obstáculos, seja facilitando a institucionalização de tal modelo. Conforme definido, o objeto de estudo escolhido foi o caso das empresas distribuidoras de energia por se tratar de um caso que possui características particulares no setor. A pesquisa realizada envolveu entrevistas com representantes dos variados conjuntos de atores pertencentes ao campo do setor elétrico e, os sentimentos captados acabaram por enfatizar as influências negativas da dinâmica dos atores na forma com que as distribuidoras respondem ao modelo regulatório. Entre os mecanismos institucionais que foram reconhecidos e analisados no comportamento dos atores está o isomorfismo institucional, as inconstâncias do modelo regulatório, estruturação tardia do campo e relações de poder que privilegiam interesses particulares em detrimento do campo. Diante destes resultados, a conclusão do estudo aponta que um modelo regulatório ótimo só poderá ser alcançado a partir do êxito da agência reguladora, o que, por sua vez, depende, do fortalecimento da cultura de regulação no campo do setor elétrico que, lhe permita ter autonomia e legitimidade. / [en] In the Brazilian electric sector, the regulatory model is the mechanism through which it s keep the interest equilibrium of all organizations that operates in this sector and, this happens, from the balance between its internal rationality and external environment, thus to provide favorable conditions to the production, transmission and distribution of energy, and, for the benefit of the society. The main objective of this dissertation is to point how the dynamics between the actors in the electric sector - the consumers, regulatory agency, distribution, transmission and generation companies of energy - influence the form that they respond to the regulatory model proposed, either creating obstacles, either facilitating the institutionalization of that model. As defined, the case study was the electric distribution companies because this case possess particular characteristics in the sector. The carried research involved interviews with a joint varied of representatives actors of the electric sector field, and the feelings caught had emphasized the negative influences of the actors dynamics in the form that the distribution companies answer to the regulatory model. Among the institutional mechanisms that were recognized and had been analyzed in the actors behavior, it is the institutional isomorphism, the inconstancy of the regulatory model and the field delayed structuration and the power relations of privileging particular interests in detriment of the field. From these results, the study conclusion points that an optimum regulatory model will only be reached with the success of the regulatory agency, what, in turn, depends on the strongness of the regulatory culture on the electric sector field that will allow them to have autonomy and legitimacy.

[pt] Os estudos acerca da relação entre desempenho socioambiental e desempenho financeiro das firmas tem ganhado considerável destaque nos últimos anos, refletindo o interesse cada vez maior de investidores em aspectos sociais, ambientais, éticos e governamentais das organizações. A literatura nesse campo é vasta, porém bastante contraditória. Além disso, a falta de critérios consistentes para se mensurar o desempenho socioambiental das empresas figura como principal argumento contra a veracidade das pesquisas empíricas voltadas para esse tema. Através de uma abordagem diferenciada, na qual o desempenho socioambiental é estimado dentro de um contexto multidimensional que considera informações dos relatórios sociais das firmas, esse trabalho busca analisar o desempenho financeiro de empresas socioambientalmente responsáveis do setor elétrico brasileiro, comparando-as com as demais integrantes do setor. Para tanto, uma primeira seleção é feita através de um modelo de Análise Envoltória de Dados, que busca mensurar a eficiência socioambiental das empresas com base em informações de seus balanços sociais. De posse desses resultados, propõe-se a formação de três grupos distintos: um primeiro formado apenas por empresas com os melhores desempenhos socioambientais; um segundo grupo que inclui empresas com desempenhos moderados, mas que também divulgaram resultados sociais durante o período de formação de carteiras; e um terceiro grupo que envolve todas as empresas que não divulgaram nenhuma informação socioambiental nos últimos anos. Em seguida, são montadas diversas carteiras teóricas para cada grupo de empresas, com composições diferenciadas de ativos de acordo com diferentes cenários. Essas carteiras são, então, comparadas segundo métricas específicas de avaliação de performance financeira. A amostra engloba um total de 36 companhias do setor elétrico brasileiro, analisadas entre os anos de 2009 a 2013. Os resultados, tanto da análise ex-post como da análise ex- ante, permitem constatar que as carteiras do primeiro grupo são claramente superiores, em termos de maiores prêmios de risco e menores probabilidades de perdas, às integrantes do segundo grupo e essas, por sua vez, dominam aquelas do último grupo. Dessa forma, pode-se inferir que houve, de fato, uma relação positiva entre desempenho socioambiental e desempenho financeiro das empresas do setor elétrico brasileiro nos últimos anos. / [en] Research on the outcomes of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) on firm performance have garnered much interest in recent years, reflecting investors growing awareness of social, environmental and corporate governance issues. The literature in this field, though vast, is littered with contradictory evidence. In addition, most studies lack a coherent set of metrics to assess CSR. Using a differentiated approach, in which firms social responsibilities are evaluated within a multidimensional framework considering information from their annual social reports, this work aims to examine the relationship between CSR and firm performance in the Brazilian electric sector in recent years. The analysis is conducted in two basic steps: first, the Brazilian electric companies are classified according to the information disclosed from their social reports using a Data Envelopment Analysis Model. Then, several portfolios are formed based on firms Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) performances and are subsequently assessed using different financial metrics. The sample comprises a total of 36 electric companies and the time period of the analysis spans from 2009 to 2013. The results from both ex-post and ex-ante evaluations clearly indicate that portfolios comprising assets from firms with the best ESG practices not only offered the highest excess returns per unit of risk but also presented the lowest probabilities of large losses during the analysis period. In addition, firms that presented lower ESG performances but also released social reports during the years of portfolio formation performed significantly better than firms that did not disclose any social information within this time span.

[pt] No Brasil, devido aos incentivos governamentais ministrados na área de energia renovável, é postulada uma perspectiva crescente no número de instalações de micro e minigeração distribuída (MMGD), sendo a fonte solar destaque no país. Dessa forma, o aumento na inserção de fontes intermitentes promove alterações significativas no comportamento da curva de carga horária, podendo atingir de maneira direta a operação e o planejamento da rede elétrica. Para atender aos novos panoramas dispostos pelo sistema elétrico brasileiro, esta dissertação propõe uma nova metodologia para contabilizar a geração distribuída fotovoltaica para as horas que compõem o dia. Usando o modelo Holt-Winters Sazonal Duplo são feitas previsões de carga e demanda para o Sistema Interligado Nacional e os subsistemas que o integram, considerando, em particular, o impacto causado pela conexão destes sistemas de MMGD solar fotovoltaica na rede de distribuição. Para as previsões são utilizados o horizonte de tempo de 24 horas, em intervalos horários, efetuadas para a primeira semana de 2020. Os resultados indicam que a metodologia proposta para a criação das séries de geração distribuída fotovoltaica é válida, pois é observada uma diminuição dos erros de previsão para a série de demanda, constituída pelo montante da geração distribuída adicionado a carga. Os valores de MAPE analisados neste trabalho não ultrapassam 10 porcento para dias típicos, exceto feriados, indicando que o método apresentado é um recurso eficiente. / [en] In Brazil, due to government incentives given in the area of renewable energy, a growing perspective in the number of micro and mini distributed generation (MMGD) installations is postulated, being the solar source highlighted in the country. Thus, the increase in the insertion of intermittent sources promotes significant changes in the behavior of the hourly load curve, which can directly affect the operation and planning of the electrical network. To meet the new panoramas provided by the Brazilian electricity system, this dissertation proposes a new methodology to account for distributed photovoltaic generation for the hours that make up the day. Using the Double Seasonal Holt-Winters model, load and demand forecasts are made for the National Interconnected System and the subsystems that integrate it, considering, in particular, the impact caused by the connection of these solar photovoltaic MMGD systems in the distribution network. For the forecasts, the 24-hour time horizon is used, in hourly intervals, carried out for the first week of 2020. The results indicate that the proposed methodology for the creation of distributed photovoltaic generation series is valid, as it is observed a decrease in the forecast errors for the demand series, constituted by the amount of the distributed generation added to the load. The MAPE values analyzed in this work do not exceed 10 percent for typical days, except holidays, indicating that the presented method is an efficient resource.

The vision of New Zealand as a 'knowledge society' is a mantra that has opened the twenty-first century. Underpinning any 'knowledge society', however; are people who turn resources into concrete products and who build, maintain and service the technological and social infrastructure essential to society. This thesis examines the skilled trades and, in particular, how people are trained for those trades. Industry training is a crucial component of the wealth-generating capabilities of New Zealand. It is also an essential part of the way that many young people make the transition from school to work and from adolescence to adulthood. The means of training tradespeople has moved over the years from the rigid and prescriptive apprenticeship system, to the more voluntaristic, industry-led 'industry training' strategy, introduced following the Industry Training Act 1992. Regardless of the system used to organise training, however, there have been long-standing problems in New Zealand with achieving the optimum number of skilled workers, possessing the correct 'mix' of skills required. In this research, based upon semi-structured interviews with industry training stakeholders four industry case studies, policy content analysis and an in-depth examination of the Modem Apprenticeships scheme, I ask three key questions. First, what are the things that, as a country, we could or should reasonably expect a 'good' industry training system to contribute to? These may be things like: an adequate supply of appropriately skilled workers, the ability to upskill or reskill these workers as needed, clear transition routes for young people, lifelong learning opportunities, equity goals and foundation skills. Second, I ask how the current system performs against these criteria. The short answer is that the performance is 'patchy'. There are dire skill shortages in many areas. While opportunities for workplace upskilling, reskilling or 'lifelong learning' are available, I argue that they are not yet cemented into a 'training culture'. Workplace-based learning is an important transition route for a small percentage of our young people but the favoured route is some form of tertiary education, which may be an expensive and not necessarily relevant option. Third, I ask why the performance of New Zealand's industry training system is often less than desirable. My argument is that the problems and solutions thereof, of skill formation in New Zealand have been understood largely in terms of the supply-side. That is, we have either critiqued, or looked to reform, whatever system has been in place to train skilled workers. The inadequacy of this approach is evident from weaknesses in the ability of either the prescriptive apprenticeship system or the voluntaristic industry training strategy to deliver an appropriately skilled workforce. Thus, I also examine the demand side of skill formation: the wider influences that impact on employers' training decisions. Training decisions made by individual employers, the aggregation of which represent the level and quality of training for New Zealand as a whole, are influenced by a plethora of factors. At the micro level of the employer or firm, I explore barriers to training and some of the constraints to the demand for skills. I then examine broader influences, such as the changing shape of the workforce, labour market regulation and wider economic factors, all of which impact on training levels.

La tesis estudia la evolución del parque de generación de energía eléctrica durante el franquismo (1940-1975). En este período comenzó la formación de un sistema unificado de explotación, y durante su desarrollo se pasó de 1.731Mw a 25.467Mw. El sistema que se denominó “autorregulación”, permitió la coexistencia de las empresas eléctricas privadas, agrupadas alrededor de UNESA y el INI en su vertiente eléctrica. Sin embargo, las decisiones y la política eléctrica, y más tarde energética, estuvo directamente influida por el gobierno. Se analiza la importancia de las fuentes (hidráulica, carbón, fuel oil, gas natura, nuclear) de energía primaria en la generación de energía eléctrica. Asimismo, se estudia, aunque no de manera exhaustiva el impacto del medio ambiente y sus consecuencias y efectos a largo plazo. Todo ello se desarrolla en el contexto histórico pertinente bajo una vertiente técnico-económica. / The thesis studies the evolution of the power generation system of electricity, during the Franco’s Regime (1940-1975). In this period, it began the construction of a unified system of exploitation, where the power installed was moved from 1.731Mw to 25.467Mw. The system was called "self regulation", allowing the coexistence of private electric companies, grouped around UNESA and the INI in its electrical aspect. However, the decisions and the power policy, and later on the energy, was directly influenced by the government. It discusses the importance of the primary energy sources (hydro, coal, fuel oil, natural gas, nuclear) in electric power generation. However, it is not intended to illustrate a comprenhensive explanation of the environmental impact and its consequences and effects long term. To sum up, all this takes place in the relevant historical context in a technical and economical perspective.