Conventional machine learning (ML) models and algorithms are constantly advancing at a fast pace. Most of this development are due to the implementation of hybrid- and ensemble techniques that are powerful tools to complement and empower the efficiency of the algorithms. At the same time, the development and demand for renewable energy sources are rapidly increasing driven by political and environmental issues in which failure to act fast enough, could lead to an existential crisis. With the phasing of non-renewable to renewable energy sources, new challenges arise due to its intermittent and variable nature. Accurate forecasting techniques plays a crucial role in addressing these challenges. In this thesis, I present a hybrid ensemble machine learning model based upon stacking, utilizing a Gradient Boosted Tree as a meta-learner to predict the energy demand for the energy area SE3 in Sweden. The Hybrid model is based on three composite models: XGBoost, CatBoost and Random Forest (RF); utilizing only features extracted from the timeseries data. For training and testing the proposed Hybrid model, hourly demand load data was gathered from Svenska Kraftnät, measuring energy consumption for the energy area SE3 from year 2016-2021. The forecasting results of the models are measured using a regression score (R-squared, which measures Explained Variance) and Accuracy (measured in terms of Mean Absolute Percentage Error). The result shows that in an experimental setting, the Hybrid model reaches a R-squared score of 0.9785 and an accuracy of 97.85%. When utilized for day-ahead prediction on unseen data outside of the scope of the training dataset, the Hybrid model reaches a R-squared score of 0.9764 and an Accuracy of 93.43%. This thesis concludes that the proposed methodology can be utilized to accurately predict the variance in the energy demand and can serve as a framework to decision makers in order to accurately predict the energy demand in Sweden. / Konventionella maskininlärningsmodeller (ML) och algoritmer utvecklas ständigt i snabb takt. Det mesta av denna utveckling beror på implementeringen av hybrid- och ensembletekniker som är kraftfulla verktyg för att komplettera och stärka effektiviteten hos algoritmer. Samtidigt ökar utvecklingen och efterfrågan på förnybara energikällor snabbt, drivet av politiska och miljömässiga motiv, där underlåtenhet att agera tillräckligt snabbt kan leda till en existentiell kris. Med utfasningen av icke-förnybara till förnybara energikällor uppstår nya utmaningar på grund av dess intermittenta och varierande karaktär. Noggranna prognostekniker spelar en avgörande roll för att hantera dessa utmaningar. I det här examensarbetet presenterar jag en hybrid ensemble maskininlärningsmodell baserad på stacking, med användning av ett Gradient Boosted Decision Tree (GBDT) som en meta-learner för att förutsäga energibehovet för energiområdet SE3 i Sverige. Hybridmodellen är baserad på tre kompositmodeller: XGBoost, CatBoost och Random Forest (RF) och använder endast features extraherade från tidsseriedata. För att utbilda och testa den föreslagna hybridmodellen samlades timbelastningsdata från Svenska Kraftnät, som mäter energiförbrukningen för energiområdet SE3 från år 2016-2021. Modellernas prognosresultat mäts med hjälp av ett regressionsmått (R-kvadrat, som mäter Explained Variance) och Accuracy (mätt i termer av Mean Absolute Percentage Error). Resultatet visar att i en experimentell miljö når hybridmodellen en R-kvadratvärde på 0,9785 och en Accuracy på 97,85%. När hybridmodellen används för att förutsäga energiförbrukningen dagen framåt på data utanför omfattningen av träningsdata, når hybridmodellen ett R-kvadratpoäng på 0,9764 och en Accuracy på 93,43%. Denna avhandling drar slutsatsen att den föreslagna metoden kan användas för att korrekt förutsäga variansen i energibehovet och kan fungera som ett ramverk för beslutsfattare för att korrekt prognostisera energibehovet i Sverige.

<p dir="ltr">Ice thermal energy storage (ITES) systems have long been an economic way to slash cooling costs in the commercial sector since the 1980s. An ITES system generates cooling in the formation of ice within a storage tank. This occurs during periods of the day when the cost of electricity is low, normally at night. This ice is then melted to absorb the energy within the conditioned space. While ITES systems have been prosperous in the commercial sector, they have yet to take root in the residential sector.</p><p dir="ltr">The U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) has published guidelines for TES. The DoE guidelines include providing a minimum of four hours of cooling, shifting 30-50% of a space’s cooling load to non-peak hours, minimizing the weight, volume, complexity, and cost of the system, creating a system than operates for over 10,000 cycles, enacting predictive control measures, and being modular to increase scale for larger single-family and multi-family homes [1]. The purpose of this research is to develop a model that meets these guidelines.</p><p dir="ltr">After extensive research in both experimental data, technical specifications, existing models, and best practices taken from the works of others a MATLAB model was generated. The modeled ITES system is comprised of a 1m diameter tank by 1m tall. Ice was selected as the PCM. A baseline model was constructed with parameters deemed to be ideal. This model generated an ITES system that can be charged in under four hours and is capable of providing a total of 22.18 kWh of cooling for a single-family home over a four-hour time period. This model was then validated with experimental data and found to have a root mean squared error of 0.0959 for the system state of charge. During the validation both the experimental and model estimation for the water/ice within the tank converged at the HTF supply temperature of -5.2°C.</p><p dir="ltr">With the model established, a parametric analysis was conducted to learn how adjusting a few of the system parameters impact it. The first parameter, reducing the pipe radius, has the potential to lead to a 152.6-minute reduction in charge time. The second parameter, varying the heat transfer fluid (HTF) within the prescribed zone of 0.7 kg/s to 1.2 kg/s, experienced a 4.8-minute increase in charge time for the former and a decrease in charge time by 5.4 minutes for the latter. The third parameter, increasing the pipe spacing and consequently increasing the ratio of mass of water to mass of HTF, yielded a negative impact. A 7.1mm increase in pipe spacing produced a 16.6-minute increase in charge time. Meanwhile, a 14.2mm increase in pipe spacing created a 93.3-minute increase in charge time and exceeded the charging time limit of five hours.</p><p dir="ltr">This functioning model establishes the foundation of creating a residential-scale ITES system. The adjustability and scalability of the code enable it to be modified to user specifications. Thus, allowing for various prototypes to be generated based on it. The model also lays the groundwork to synthesize a code containing an ITES system and a heat pump operating as one. This will aid in the understanding of residential-scale ITES systems and their energy effects.</p>

Various forecasting tools, based on historical data, exist for planners of national networks that are very effective in planning national interventions to ensure energy security, and meet carbon obligations over the long term. However, at a local community level, where energy demand patterns may significantly differ from the national picture, planners would be unable to justify local and more appropriate intervention due to the lack of appropriate planning tools. In this research, a new methodology is presented that initially creates a virtual community of households in a small community based on a survey of a similar community, and then predicts the energy behaviour of each household, and hence of the community. It is based on a combination of the statistical data, and a questionnaire survey. The methodology therefore enables realistic predictions and can help local planners decide on measures such as embedding renewable energy and demand management. Using the methodology developed, a study has been carried out in order to understand the patterns of electricity consumption within UK households. The methodology developed in this study has been used to investigate the incentives currently available to consumers to see if it would be possible to shift some of the load from peak hours. Furthermore, the possibility of using renewable energy (RE) at community level is also studied and the results presented. Real time pricing information was identified as a barrier to understanding the effectiveness of various incentives and interventions. A new pricing criteria has therefore been developed to help developers and planners of local communities to understand the cost of intervention. Conclusions have been drawn from the work. Finally, suggestions for future work have been presented. / Libyan government

Högskolan i Gävle planerar att installera solavskärmande markiser på entréhallarnas sydliga glasade fasader. Sedan uppbyggnad har entrébyggnaden som inkluderar ”Rävhallen” och ”Fårhallen” lidit av bristfällig termisk inomhuskomfort på grund av värmeläckage och överhettning orsakade av fasadernas fönsterpartier. Detta examensarbete gjordes i syfte att via mätningar undersöka den termiska inomhuskomforten i Högskolans i Gävle entréhallar. Arbetet syftade också till att årssimulera och analysera årlig energiförbrukning och termisk inomhuskomfort innan och efter installationen av solavskärmande markiser på byggnadens glasfasader, i simuleringsprogrammet IDA ICE. En komfortundersökning gjordes genom att mäta termisk komfort och inomhustemperaruter under två tillfällen i april månad. Mätningarna gjordes under en molnig dag och en solig dag vid samma utomhustemperatur, för att undersöka solinstrålningens inverkan på byggnadens termiska komfort och inomhustemperaturer. Komfortundersökningen visade att den termiska komforten i Rävhallen och Fårhallen var undermålig då överhettning uppstår vid hög solinstrålning. Nödvändiga data inför modellering och simulering insamlades genom observationer, uppskattning, beräkningar och samtal med drifttekniker vid Akademiska hus. Efter datainsamlingen konstruerades en modell i simuleringsprogrammet IDA ICE. Innan simulering validerades modellen med hjälp av tidigare uppmätta temperaturer under april månad. Sedan simulerades byggnadens energiförbrukning och termiska inomhuskomfort över ett helt år, utan markiser, och därefter med markiser. Resultatet visade att den termiska komforten förbättrades markant vid installation av markiser. Höga topptemperaturer som tidigare förekom i byggnaden minskade eftersom markiserna reducerade solinstrålningen genom fasadens fönsterpartier. Det totala årliga energibehovet ökade dock från 605 MWh till 635 MWh. Det årliga energibehovet för kyla minskade något från 3,4 MWh till 3,2 MWh. Att energiförbrukningen ökade berodde på att markiserna reducerade nyttig gratisvärme från solinstrålningen, särskilt under uppvärmningssäsong. För vidare forskning föreslås en mer effektiv styrteknik av markiserna och en mer detaljrik simuleringsmodell för att få tillförlitligare resultat. Vid tillämpning av bättre anpassad styrning av markiserna bedöms energibesparingspotentialen bli större. Slutsatsen drogs att markiser kan förbättra den termiska inomhuskomforten avsevärt, men att energiförbrukningen kan komma att öka beroende på styrteknik. / The University of Gävle plans to install solar shading awnings on the southern glass facades of the main entrances. Since construction, the main entrances Rävhallen and Fårhallen have suffered from poor thermal indoor comfort due to heat leakage and overheating due to the windows on the facades. This thesis was done in order to map and investigate the thermal indoor comfort in the University of Gävle's main entrances. The work also aimed to simulate and analyze annual energy consumption and thermal indoor comfort before and after the installation of solar shading awnings on the building's glass facades, in the simulation program IDA ICE. A comfort survey was conducted by measuring thermal comfort and indoor temperature ranges on two occasions in April. The measurements were made during a cloudy day and a sunny day at the same outdoor temperature, to investigate the effect of solar radiation on the building's thermal comfort and indoor temperatures. The comfort survey showed that the thermal comfort in Rävhallen and Fårhallen was insufficient as overheating occurs at high solar radiation. Data necessary for modeling and simulation was collected through observations, estimates, and dialogs with operating technicians from Akademiska hus. After data collection, a model was constructed in the simulation program IDA ICE. Before simulation, the model was validated using previously measured temperatures during the month of April. Then the building's energy consumption and thermal indoor comfort were simulated over a whole year, without awnings, and with awnings. The results showed that the thermal comfort was significantly improved by the awnings installations. High peak temperatures that previously occurred in the building decreased because of the reduced solar radiation through the glass facade. The total annual energy demand increased from 605 MWh to 635 MWh. However, the annual energy demand for cooling decreased from 3,4 MWh to 3,2 MWh. The increase in energy consumption was due to the awnings reducing useful heat from solar radiation, especially during the heating season. Prior to further research, a more efficient control technique of the awnings and a more detailed model to improve the simulation results are proposed. When applying better adapted control of the awnings, the energy saving potential is considered to be greater. It was concluded that awnings can significantly improve indoor thermal comfort, but that energy consumption may increase depending on control technology.

Befolkningsökningen i Stockholmsregionen är för tillfället en av de snabbaste i Europa, vilket ställer höga krav på stadsplaneringen. En effekt av urbaniseringen är att det finns ett stort behov av nyproducerade bostäder. Kommunen Stockholms stad äger aktiebolaget AB Stockholmshem, ett allmännyttigt bostadsföretag som bygger och förvaltar bostäder i Stockholm. I enlighet med FN:s globala hållbarhetsmål hållbara städer och samhällen har Stockholms stad infört ett energikrav för nyproducerade bostäder som en del av sitt arbete för att bidra till en hållbar stadsutveckling. Kravet innebär att energianvändningen för nyproducerade flerbostadshus inte får överstiga 55 kWh/m2 och år. Stockholmshem arbetar för att försöka uppnå stadens energikrav, något som i dagsläget sällan uppnås. Detta examensarbete skrivs på uppdrag av Stockholmshem och syftar till att identifiera utvecklingsområden för att hjälpa dem att uppnå stadens energikrav. Studien har forskningsfrågan; Vilka utmaningar och utvecklingsområden finns hos Stockholmshem med att samla in, sprida, utveckla och använda kunskaper som är kopplade till energiförbrukning vid nyproduktion? För att besvara forskningsfrågan användes en tematisk analys med teman kopplade till begreppet Knowledge Management, KM. KM kan ses som ett verktyg som ämnar att identifiera hur en organisation arbetar med att samla in, sprida, utveckla samt använda kunskaper inom organisationen. Tre teman kopplade till KM identifierades för att kunna analysera datan och besvara studiens frågeställning. De tre teman som användes var; infrastruktur och tillgänglighet, ledningens stöd och vision samt organisationskultur och samsyn. Data som används i den tematiska analysen kommer från elva semistrukturerade intervjuer med personer som arbetar på AB Stockholmshem.Från den tematiska analysen framkom ett flertal styrkor och några utvecklingsområden som är kopplade till KM. Kulturen att dela med sig av kunskaper kan ses som tillåtande inom företaget, men tillgängligheten kan förbättras. I nuläget beskrivs dokumenthanteringssystemet som krångligt och svåråtkomligt. Det framkom även att de kontroller som genomförs med syftet att undersöka och säkerställa energiförbrukningen behöver ses över. Antalet kontroller i genomförandefasen, standardisering av energiberäkningar och implementering av en ny mätplan kan ses som viktiga delar. De interna projekteringsanvisningarna kan anses vara Stockholmshems viktigaste verktyg för att ta vara på kunskap från tidigare projekt och medarbetare. Även om det finns en samsyn kring att energifrågan är viktig kan ledningen behöva ge tydligare direktiv om hur energifrågan ska prioriteras. Det är däremot viktigt att inte fokusera enbart på energifrågan, då det kan leda till högre ekonomiska kostnader och större miljöpåverkan. / The urbanisation in the Stockholm region is one of the fastest in Europe right now. The municipality Stockholm stad owns AB Stockholmshem, which is a public utility housing association that builds and manages buildings in Stockholm. In compliance with the UN:s sustainable development goal sustainable cities and societies has Stockholm stad introduced an energy efficiency demand when building new buildings as a part of their work toward a more sustainable city development. The demand for new apartment buildings is set so that the energy efficiency is not allowed to be greater than 55 kWh/m2 and year. Stockholmshem works in order to fulfill the demand, but today that rarely happens. This master thesis is an assignment from Stockholmshem that have been adapted according to guidelines for master thesis that exist for the Master of Science in Engineering and in Education at the KTH Royal Institute of Technology. The assignment aims to identify development areas that can help them achieve the energy efficiency demand in the future. The study has the research question; What challenges and development areas can be found in Stockholmshem regarding their work with collecting, spreading, developing, and using knowledge that is connected to energy efficiency in new apartment buildings? In order to answer the research question a thematic analysis was used, with themes connected to the term Knowledge Management, KM. KM can be seen as a tool that aims to identify how an organization works with collecting, spreading, developing and using knowledge within the organization. Three themes were identified that are connected to KM and were used in the analysis of the data in order to answer the research question. The three themes were infrastructure and accessibility, the management's support and vision and also organisational culture and consensus. The data used in the thematic analysis were collected through eleven semi structured interviews with employees at AB Stockholmshem. The thematic analysis with data from the interviews identified strengths and development areas connected to KM. The culture can be seen as allowing and good, but the accessibility can be improved. The document management system that is used today is described as difficult and hard to access. The interviews also lifted that the controls that are implemented to verify that the calculated energy efficiency becomes the actual value in the end needs to be reviewed. The number of controls in the building phase, standardization of energy calculations and implementation of a new measurement plan were lifted as important aspects. The projecting instructions could be seen as the most important tool for Stockholmshem when transferring knowledge from older projects and coworkers to new. Even if there is a consensus regarding the energy issue the management could give more clear guidelines regarding how the energy issue should be prioritized. But it is important to not only focus on the energy issue since that could lead to higher economic costs and greater environmental impact.

Le monde est actuellement confronté à une transition du marché de l'énergie qui est influencée notamment par la dynamique de la croissance économique globale, les négociations relatives aux changements climatiques et des prix de plus en plus volatils. Cette évolution rapide des réglementations et de la macro-économie transformera les conditions de la demande d'énergie, obligeant les gouvernements à acquérir un ensemble croissant d'outils quantitatifs pour mieux évaluer les résultats de leurs politiques fiscales. Cette thèse aborde cette problématique en analysant, par une approche basée sur les élasticités, les différentes facettes de la demande d'énergie dans le but d'achever une consommation énergétique durable. Cette approche est complémentée par l'analyse par grappes, la décomposition structurelle ainsi que par diverses outils économétriques appliques conjointement à l'échelle mondiale et nationale. Une attention particulière est faite sur la modélisation de la demande des marchés subsidiés notamment des pays du Conseil de Coopération du Golfe Arabique / The world is currently witnessing a transition in the energy scene that is significantly characterized by global economic growth dynamics, climate change negotiations and volatile energy prices. Rapidly evolving regulatory and macro-economic environments heavily impact on the demand-side of energy, forcing governments to acquire an ever-increasing set of quantitative tools to better assess the results of their taxation policies.This thesis addresses some of these issues by analyzing various facets of energy demand in order to generate sensible demand and price elasticities with real-life applications in sustainable energy management. For that purpose, a combination of cluster, decomposition and multiple econometric analysis is undertaken at global, regional and country-specific levels for households complemented by a policy analysis. A special focus is made on modeling consumer demand behavior for resource-rich economies of the Gulf Cooperation Countries, and the potential impact of removing residential electricity subsidies on the net societal welfare of Saudi Arabia.

In this paper I investigate the energy cooperation between the EU and Russia from the political and economic points of view. The relevance of the issue is due to the growing role of energy sector, the need for security of energy supply and demand and for political and economic balance of power in the region, and closer economic integration. Two theoretical approaches, geopolitical and bureaucratic, guiding the research, explain the behavior of protagonists. To better understand the present level of cooperation I analyze the background and dynamics of EU - Russia energy trade relations. As a case study, I investigate the Nord Stream project as an example of successful cooperation of Germany as an EU member state and Russia in this field. I discuss challenges for the healthy mutual partnership in the energy sector, namely, high politicization of the issue, monopolization of Russian energy sector and low sustainability of Russian economic development, and mistrust between the protagonists. I attempt to identify possible policy changes aimed to improve this cooperation and achieve fruitful partnership, security and stability. Key words: Russia, EU, energy, cooperation, Realpolitik, international relations, oil, gas, energy dialogue, ECT, security, balance of power, geopolitics, interest groups,...

Les collectivités territoriales s’affichent comme des acteurs majeurs du secteur énergétique.Cependant, leur relation est empreinte d’une certaine ambiguïté du fait du caractère éminemmentstratégique du second. S’il apparaît qu’au début du XXe siècle les collectivités territoriales assumaient,à travers la distribution d’énergie, un véritable service public local, la réalité d’un tel caractère estaujourd’hui contestable. La nationalisation de 1946 a en effet eu pour conséquence de remettreprofondément en cause l’exercice de cette compétence, lui faisant perdre son caractère effectivementlocal. Malgré la récente libéralisation du marché de l’énergie, les collectivités territoriales ne se sontpas réapproprié ce rôle. Elles semblent toutefois trouver progressivement une nouvelle légitimité dansce domaine à la faveur des préoccupations occupant des places de plus en plus importantes que sontla sécurité d’approvisionnement et la protection de l’environnement. Ce travail se propose d’étudier lesinteractions entre les collectivités territoriales et l’énergie à travers la problématique de ladécentralisation. Le secteur énergétique, aussi stratégique soit-il n’empêche pas la mise en placed’une certaine forme de décentralisation. Les collectivités territoriales ont un rôle important à y jouermême s’il ne saurait concerner ce secteur dans sa globalité. Elles sont ainsi passées de la prise encharge d’une activité industrielle et commerciale à une implication grandissante dans le domaine del’énergie à travers le prisme environnemental. / Local authorities present themselves as key players in the energy sector. However, the relationshipbetween energy and local authorities is quite ambiguous due to the eminently strategic nature ofenergy. If, at the beginning oh the XXth century, local authorities were in charge of a real local publicservice through energy supply, the reality of such a trait is today disputable. The 1946 nationalizationled to question the real local nature of energy supply. In spite of recent energy market liberalization,local authorities could not recapture their traditional function. However, they gradually seem to find anew energy legitimacy by owing to more and more important concerns : environmental protection andenergy supply safety. This study intends to analyze interactions between local authorities and energythrough a decentralization problematic. Energy sector, as strategic as it is, does not prevent fromintroducing a certain form of decentralization. Local authorities have a key role to play, even if it doesnot concern the global energy sector. Thus, from an industrial and commercial taking on, localauthorities are becoming more and more involved in energy sector through the environmental prism.

Die steigende Verknappung der Ressourcen bei stetigem Bevölkerungswachstum und der sich vollziehende Klimawandel erfordern Nachhaltigkeit in allen Ebenen der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion. Ziel dieser Arbeit war es eine allgemein anwendbare Methode zur Energiebilanzierung in der Tierhaltung am Beispiel der Milchviehhaltung zu entwickeln und darauf aufbauend Indikatoren zur Bewertung der Nachhaltigkeit des Energieeinsatzes im Milchproduktionsverfahren zu ermitteln. Anhand eines theoretischen Standardverfahrens der Milchproduktion wird eine Energieintensität von 3,54 MJ zur Herstellung von einem kg Milch bei einer definierten Einzeltierleistung von 8.000 kg Milch Kuh-1 Jahr-1 berechnet. Hierbei wird der kumulierte Energieaufwand (KEA) komplett dem Zielprodukt Milch zugeordnet. Stark beeinflussbar ist die Energieintensität durch die Fütterungsgestaltung, wobei beispielsweise ein steigender Kraftfutteranteil in der Ration die Energieintensität erhöht. Die Analyse der Daten von zwei Praxisbetrieben bestätigen die Ergebnisse. Aufgrund der Kuppelproduktentstehung in der Milchviehhaltung werden unterschiedliche Allokationsmethoden des KEA der Milchproduktion auf die einzelnen Produkte entwickelt und diskutiert. Die ermittelte Vorzugsmethode empfiehlt folgende Allokation des KEA auf die vier Kuppelprodukte: 59 % des KEA wird dem Zielprodukt Milch zugeordnet, 18 % der Schlachtkuh, 2 % dem Kalb und 21% den Exkrementen. Die Durchführung einer Fehlerfolgeabschätzung zeigt, dass Einzelunsicherheiten aufgrund der Vielzahl der einfließenden Parameter in der Energiebilanzierung der Milchproduktion nur geringen Einfluss auf den KEA haben. Der Einfluss von Verfahrensänderungen durch betriebs- und managementbedingte Entscheidungen auf den KEA ist bedeutend höher. Als geeigneter Indikator zur Bewertung der Nachhaltigkeit des Energieeinsatzes in der Tierhaltung wurde die Energieintensität ermittelt. Diskussionswertebereiche für die Energieintensität wurden definiert. / The scarcity of resources, the progressive growth of population and the climate change require sustainability in all levels of the agricultural production. The purpose of this research is to contribute to the development of a method for a generally accepted way of balancing energy in livestock husbandry at the example of dairy farming. Afterwards sustainability indicators were determined for the assessment of the sustainable use of energy in dairy farming. For a defined standard procedure which includes an animal performance of 8.000 kg milk cow-1 year-1, an energy intensity of 3.54 MJ per kg milk is calculated.The investigations show that the CED in dairy farming is strongly affected by the composition of the diet. Increasing pasture in the diet decreases the CED while concentrate in the diet has a reverse effect. Data analyses concerning the energy intensity at two farms confirm the results of the calculations. Dairy farming is a multi-output process. For that reason the allocation of the cumulative energy demand on the different products is done within the scope of a life cycle inventory analysis. The preferable solution of the allocation divides the cumulative energy demand on the four co-products as follows: 59 % for the milk production, 18% for producing beef from the dairy cow, 2% for the calf and 21% for the excrements. An uncertainty analysis is done to verify the influence of single uncertainties on the results of the calculations. As result an uncertainty of ± 6 % of the CED of the standard procedure was calculated. This uncertainty of the calculation has a lower influence on the CED than management related decisions on the cultural practices e.g. diet compositions and service life of the cows. Energy intensity in livestock husbandry has been determined as a useful indicator and therefore a reasonable part of an indicator system for the examination of the sustainability of agricultural production procedures.

L'intégration massive des énergies renouvelables variables (EnRV) provoque d'importants changements dans le système électrique. Auparavant développé de manière vertical et centralisé, le système était robuste et fiable. Cependant, la production des EnRV est intermittente et peu prévisible. Ainsi, le système doit être plus flexible grâce à de nouvelles options telles que la maîtrise de la demande, le stockage ou l'effacement de la production EnRV. Cependant, le potentiel des EnRV est réparti inégalement en Europe et avec d'importants taux de pénétration d'EnRV, les échanges d'électricité entre les régions vont augmenter provoquant des congestions dans le réseau. Ainsi, les options de flexibilité ne pourront peut-être pas réduire ces congestions. Pour analyser ces effets, le travail mené dans cette thèse utilise le modèle de prospective long terme POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) couplé avec le nouveau module du secteur électrique EUTGRID (EUropean – Transmission Grid Investment and Dispatch). Ce module inclut une représentation détaillée du réseau de transport européen d'électricité avec un calcul des flux plus réaliste. De plus, les renforcements sont déterminés suivant les coûts de congestion de chaque ligne. Ce nouveau couplage permet d'avoir une évolution dynamique du réseau de transport. Le rôle du réseau de transport est ensuite analysé et comparé avec les autres options de flexibilité. Les investissements dans le réseau augmentent ainsi fortement avec d'importants taux de pénétration des EnRV alors que les options de flexibilité ne peuvent pas intégralement remplacer le réseau. Finalement, un travail exploratoire est mené avec l'introduction de réseaux de distribution génériques (urbain, semi-urbain and rural) dans EUTGRID. Les résultats montrent que les renforcements sont légèrement décalés avec une augmentation de l'utilisation des technologies de back-up (i.e. centrales à gaz) ce qui augmente les émissions totales. / The power system is facing a major shift with the large-scale development of variable renewable energy sources (VRES). This vertical and centralized architecture helped the system to be robust and reliable. However, VRES production is intermittent and less predictable. As a result, the system needs to add more flexibility with new options such as Demand Side Management, storage technologies and VREs curtailment. But renewable energies potentials are unevenly distributed in Europe and, with high shares of VREs, power flows exchanges will increase between specific regions. As a result, the existing transmission grid would face congestions and these flexibility options might not be sufficient to alleviate these bottlenecks. To analyse these impacts, the work carried in this thesis uses the long-term energy model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) coupled with the new European power sector module EUTGRID (EUropean – Transmission Grid Investment and Dispatch). It includes a detailed transmission grid and more realistic power flows with a DC-OPF. A grid investment mechanism is also incorporated to determine the grid investments based on nodal prices. This new coupling permits to get a dynamic evolution of the transmission grid. The role of the transmission grid is being assessed and compared with other flexibility options. The grid investments increase largely with important development of VRES while other flexibility options cannot completely replace them. Finally, an exploratory work is being carried with the introduction of generic distribution grids (urban, semi-urban and urban) in EUTGRID. The results show that the reinforcements are slightly delayed with a greater use of back-up technologies which increases the total emissions.