[pt] O presente estudo, apresenta um conjunto de propostas metodológicas relacionadas a reconciliação de previsões em Séries Temporais Hierárquicas. O principal objetivo é apresentar soluções originais ao tema, buscando obter previsões mais acuradas do que as obtidas por modelos independentes para os diferentes níveis da hierarquia. Os estudos foram realizados considerando dados reais, mostrando a potencialidade de aplicação dos métodos desenvolvidos em diferentes cenários, onde as series temporais são estruturadas de forma hierárquica. Esta tese é composta por um conjunto de ensaios que exploram a reconciliação de previsão sob a ótica de um modelo de regressão, que dá origem a reconciliação ótima. A primeira contribuição trata do problema da reconciliação de previsões na perspectiva de estimadores robustos. A proposta apresenta uma contribuição original aplicada a dados dos de pesquisas de força de trabalho no Brasil, apresentando um conjunto de soluções que podem direcionar políticas públicas eficientes. Neste caso, as previsões reconciliadas obtidas através de estimadores robustos possibilitaram um maior ganho em termos acurácia e uma performance equivalente aos métodos que representam o estado da arte sobre reconciliação de previsões em séries temporais hierárquicas. A segunda contribuição trata do problema da reconciliação ótima em séries de consumo de energia no Brasil, apresentado uma proposta alternativa, menos sensível a valores estremos. Os resultados obtidos neste segundo trabalho apresentam melhoramentos consideráveis em métricas de avaliação padrão no que diz respeito as novas previsões. Uma terceira proposta busca oferecer uma estrutura alternativa de covariância dos erros de previsão, que irá ampliar o conjunto de propostas apresentadas na literatura para o método de reconciliação denominado por MinT (do inglês, Minimum Trace) , que minimiza os erros de reconciliação, oferecendo um estimador de variância mínima. / [en] This study presents a set of methodological proposals aimed at improving forecast reconciliation in the context of Hierarchical Time Series. The main objective is to present original solutions to the theme, seeking to obtain more accurate forecasts than those obtained by independent models for the different levels of the hierarchy. The studies were conducted using real data, showing the potentiality of application of the methods developed in different scenarios, in which the time series are structured in a hierarchical fashion. This thesis is composed of a set of essays that explore forecast reconciliation from the perspective of a regression model, which gives foundations to optimal reconciliation. The first contribution addresses the problem of forecast reconciliation from the perspective of robust estimators. The proposal presents an original contribution applied to data from labor force surveys in Brazil, presenting a set of solutions that can drive efficient public policies. In this case, the reconciled forecasts obtained through robust estimators provided consistent gains in terms of accuracy when compared to methods that represent the state-of-the-art on forecast reconciliation in hierarchical time series. The second contribution deals with the problem of optimal reconciliation applied to energy consumption time series in Brazil. We present an alternative proposal, less sensitive to outlying forecasts at the reconciliation stage. The results obtained in this second study show considerable improvements in standard evaluation metrics with regard to the new forecasts. The third proposal seeks to offer robust covariance structures for forecasting errors, which expands the set of strategies presented in the literature. The main contribution is to incorporate robust covariance estimates into the MinT (Minimum Trace) reconciliation approach, which minimizes reconciliation errors, offering an estimator with minimum variance.

No description available.

[ES] La búsqueda novedosa es un nuevo paradigma de los algoritmos de optimización, evolucionarios y bioinspirados, que está basado en la idea de forzar la búsqueda del óptimo global en aquellas partes inexploradas del dominio de la función que no son atractivas para el algoritmo, con la intención de evitar estancamientos en óptimos locales. La búsqueda novedosa se ha aplicado al algoritmo de optimización de enjambre de partículas, obteniendo un nuevo algoritmo denominado algoritmo de enjambre novedoso (NS). NS se ha aplicado al conjunto de pruebas sintéticas CEC2005, comparando los resultados con los obtenidos por otros algoritmos del estado del arte. Los resultados muestran un mejor comportamiento de NS en funciones altamente no lineales, a cambio de un aumento en la complejidad computacional. En lo que resta de trabajo, el algoritmo NS se ha aplicado en diferentes modelos, específicamente en el diseño de un motor de combustión interna, en la estimación de demanda de energía mediante gramáticas de enjambre, en la evolución del cáncer de vejiga de un paciente concreto y en la evolución del COVID-19. Cabe remarcar que, en el estudio de los modelos de COVID-19, se ha tenido en cuenta la incertidumbre, tanto de los datos como de la evolución de la enfermedad. / [CA] La cerca nova és un nou paradigma dels algoritmes d'optimització, evolucionaris i bioinspirats, que està basat en la idea de forçar la cerca de l'òptim global en les parts inexplorades del domini de la funció que no són atractives per a l'algoritme, amb la intenció d'evitar estancaments en òptims locals. La cerca nova s'ha aplicat a l'algoritme d'optimització d'eixam de partícules, obtenint un nou algoritme denominat algoritme d'eixam nou (NS). NS s'ha aplicat al conjunt de proves sintètiques CEC2005, comparant els resultats amb els obtinguts per altres algoritmes de l'estat de l'art. Els resultats mostren un millor comportament de NS en funcions altament no lineals, a canvi d'un augment en la complexitat computacional. En el que resta de treball, l'algoritme NS s'ha aplicat en diferents models, específicament en el disseny d'un motor de combustió interna, en l'estimació de demanda d'energia mitjançant gramàtiques d'eixam, en l'evolució del càncer de bufeta d'un pacient concret i en l'evolució del COVID-19. Cal remarcar que, en l'estudi dels models de COVID-19, s'ha tingut en compte la incertesa, tant de les dades com de l'evolució de la malaltia. / [EN] Novelty Search is a recent paradigm in evolutionary and bio-inspired optimization algorithms, based on the idea of forcing to look for those unexplored parts of the domain of the function that might be unattractive for the algorithm, with the aim of avoiding stagnation in local optima. Novelty Search has been applied to the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm, obtaining a new algorithm named Novelty Swarm (NS). NS has been applied to the CEC2005 benchmark, comparing its results with other state of the art algorithms. The results show better behaviour in high nonlinear functions at the cost of increasing the computational complexity. During the rest of the thesis, the NS algorithm has been used in different models, specifically the design of an Internal Combustion Engine, the prediction of energy demand estimation with Grammatical Swarm, the evolution of the bladder cancer of a specific patient and the evolution of COVID-19. It is also remarkable that, in the study of COVID-19 models, uncertainty of the data and the evolution of the disease has been taken in account. / Martínez Rodríguez, D. (2021). Optimization Algorithm Based on Novelty Search Applied to the Treatment of Uncertainty in Models [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/178994

I takt med att äldre byggnader i vårt bostadsbestånd blir i allt större behov av omfattande renoveringar, skärps även våra samhällskrav ytterligare. Då gäller det i samband med renovering att finna hela åtgärdspaket som både ger energibesparing men samtidigt är ekonomiskt lönsam.   I den här rapporten undersöks möjlig energibesparing men också lönsamheten av energisparåtgärder i samband med påbyggnad av nya bostäder i ett redan befintligt flerbostadshus. Byggnadens befintliga värmesystem byts ut mot bergvärme, som också verkar genom ventilationssystemet, och därefter förlängs byggnaden med tre nya våningsplan. Rapporten utvärderar även om påbyggnad av nya bostäder i det enskilda fallet ska betraktas som tillbyggnad eller ombyggnad, samt vilka krav som därefter ställs vid ändring av byggnad enligt PBL och BBR.   Med hjälp av energiberäkningsprogrammet IDA ICE, kunde effekten från de olika energisparåtgärderna studeras. Värdet för den årliga energibesparingen jämfördes därefter med åtgärdernas investeringskostnad. Åtgärder ansågs lönsamma om värdet av den årliga besparingen var tillräckligt stor i förhållande till investeringskostnaden.   För det enskilda fallet ger energibesparande åtgärder i samband med påbyggnad en avsevärd förbättring både ur energisynpunkt men också ekonomiskt perspektiv. Påbyggnaden beräknas initialt återbetalda i och med försäljning av bostadsrätter samtidigt som återbetalningstiden för ingreppen i den befintliga byggnaden troligen betalar sig inom 10-15 år. För det enskilda fallet var möjlig energibesparing efter genomförda åtgärder 74 procent, vilket motsvarar är en minskning med närmare 130 kWh/m2 och år jämfört med referensfallet. Rapporten fastslår att påbyggnaden ska betraktas som tillbyggnad och att fyra bergvärmepumpar är fullt tillräckliga för att både uppnå energibesparing samt uppfylla ekonomisk lönsamhet. / As older buildings in our housing stock are in increasing need of extensive renovations, it further enhances our social requirements. It is then needed alongside with renovations to find whole measures that yields energy savings which also is financially profitable.   In this report, we examine the possible energy savings alongside with the profitability of the energy measures connected with extensions of new housing on top of an existing housing. The current heating system of the building is replaced with geothermal heating, which is also working through to the ventilation system. Thereafter the building is extended with three new floors. The report also evaluates if an extension of new housing in the individual case is to be seen as an extension or a reconstruction, together with the demands of which are put on an altered building in accordance to PBL and BBR.   With the help of the computational energy software IDA ICE, the affect from the different energy measures could be studied. The yearly economical savings was then compared to the cost of the different measures. The measures were deemed profitable if the value of the yearly savings exceeded the initial cost.   For the specific case, the measures of energy savings gave an considerable improvement for the extension, both in energy but also in the economical sense. The investment of the extensions is to be seen payed via sales of apartments, and the payback on the actions taken on the existing building is estimated to within 10 to 15 years. for the individual case the possible yearly energy savings, after completed measures, is upwards of 74 percent, which translates to 130 kWh/m2 per year. This report also states that, in specific case, extensions of new housing is to be seen as an extensions and that four geothermal heating pumps are enough to reach sufficient energy savings together with economical profitability.

This report is a life cycle assessment of a relatively newly built semidetached passive house/low energy house located in Östersund/Jämtland. The analysis concentrates on the building materials in the construction phase and the energy in the use phase for 50 years. The construction phase include frame, foundation, interior and exterior walls, ceiling and roof, middle floor structure, floor coverings, interior and exterior doors, windows, interior staircase with banisters, stove and FTX-ventilation system. The inventory to obtain the volume of each material has been made with the help of blueprints and interviews. The inventory of the use phase has been made using measurements from a parallel study by Itai Danielski of the energy use in the house (Danielski, Svensson & Fröling, 2013). The database Ecoinvent has been used to get a result for the volume and energy values. The inventory data is allocated and the characterization methods GWP, CED (cumulative energy demand) and USEtox are used. The aim of this study was to compare the construction phase with the use phase to see which phase that has the highest energy values ​​and environmental impact. Another goal was to examine which materials in the construction phase that has the highest embodied energy and environmental impact. The result shows that in a comparison between the construction phase and the use phase, and when considering the parameters included in this study, the use phase has the highest values for global warming potentials (around 54 %), cumulative energy demand (around 80 %), ecotoxicity (around 56 %), human non-carcinogenic toxicity (around 77 %) and total human toxicity (around 75 %). The construction phase has the highest values for human carcinogenic toxicity (around 57 %). Even if the use phase has the highest values in most categories the construction phase also has high values. As buildings become more energy efficient and with increasing use of renewable energy, the construction phase becomes more important from an environmental perspective. This means that the material choices which are made in passive houses become increasingly important if passive houses should be considered to be environmentally friendly also in the future. The study also shows that the FTX-ventilation system, some of the insulation materials (with cellular plastic sheets and rock wool in top), metals (with sheet metal roofing of steel in top), glued laminated timber and wood fiber boards  have some of the highest values of environmental impact and the highest embodied energy. These materials should in future buildings be considered, if possible, to be replaced with materials with less environmental impact. / Den här rapporten är en livscykelanalys av ett relativt nybyggt passivhus/lågenergihus som också är ett parhus (ett hus delat i två separata lägenheter) beläget i Östersund/Jämtland. Analysen koncentrerar sig på byggnadsmaterialen i konstruktionsfasen och energin i användningsfasen under 50 år. Konstruktionsfasen inkluderar stomme, grund, inner- och ytterväggar, inner- och yttertak, mellanbjälklag, golvbeklädnader, inner- och ytterdörrar, fönster, invändig trappa med trappräcke, kamin och FTX-ventilationssystem. Inventeringen för att få fram volymen på varje material har gjorts med hjälp av ritningar och intervjuer. Inventeringen av användningsfasen har gjorts med hjälp av mätvärden från en parallell studie av Itai Danielski på energianvändningen i huset (Danielski, Svensson & Fröling, 2013). Databasen Ecoinvent har sedan använts för att få fram ett resultat för volym- och energivärdena. Inventeringsdatan är allokerad och karaktäriseringsmetoderna GWP (globalt uppvärmingspotential), CED (kumulativt energibehov) och USEtox (toxicitet) har använts. Målet med studien är att jämföra konstruktionsfasen med användningsfasen för att kunna se vilken fas som har högst energivärden och miljöpåverkan. Målet är också att undersöka vilka material i konstruktionsfasen som har högst förkroppsligad energi och miljöpåverkan, i syftet att eventuellt kunna byta ut vissa material till miljövänligare alternativ, för att få ett miljövänligare hus i framtida liknande byggnationer. Resultaten visar att i en jämförelse mellan konstruktionsfasen och användningsfasen, och med hänsyn till de parametrar som ingår i studien, att användningsfasen har de högsta värdena för globalt uppvämingspotential (runt 54 %), kumulativt energibehov (runt 80 %), ekotoxicitet (runt 56 %), human icke-cancerogen toxicitet (runt 77 %) och total human toxicitet (runt 75 %). Konstruktionsfasen har högst värden för human cancerogen toxicitet (runt 57 %). Även om användningsfasen har högst värden i de flesta kategorierna så har även konstruktionsfasen höga värden. Ju mer energieffektiva husen blir och med en ökad användning av energi från förnyelsebara källor, desto viktigare blir konstruktionsfasen ur ett miljöperspektiv. Det betyder att materialvalen som görs i huset blir väldigt viktiga om passivhus ska fortsätta anses som miljövänliga även i framtiden. Denna studie visar också att FTX-ventilationssystemet, några av isoleringsmaterialen (med cellplasten och stenullen i topp), metallerna (med plåttaket av stål i topp), limträbalkar och träfiberskivor har några av de högsta värdena av miljöpåverkan och den högsta förkroppsligade energin. Dessa material borde i framtida byggnationer övervägas att om möjligt ersättas med andra material med mindre miljöpåverkan.

The diploma thesis contains an energy audit of the figure skating hall. In the first part I focused on the analysis of the topic, fire regulations and laws relating to given theme, recent technical, theoretical and experimental solutions in practice. In the next part, I compiled the of building energy audit of building, including its mandatory annexes. In the last part, I presented the results of measurements in the evaluated object.

The thesis deals with the issue will be nearly zero energy. The theoretical part is divided into several chapters. Describes the requirements of applicable legislation of the Czech Republic and the EU and the application of renewable energy in these buildings. The third and last part serves as a basis for part of the experiment. Calculation section applies theoretical knowledge into practice. The subject has become a new residential building in which they are designed to ensure the technical equipment required internal environment. The proposal concerns the heating, ventilation, cooling, domestic hot water and lighting. At the end are attached graphic of energy performance certificates (PENB) and evaluated the economic and ecological point of view. The experiment deals with the measurement of the internal microclimate administrative building type in Brno, with regard to the requirements of current legislation of the Czech Republic.

The transport sector accounts for a third of Sweden’s total greenhouse gas emissions where cars and heavy trucks dominate the use of fossil fuels. The Swedish government is now intensifying the work for an electrified transport sector where electric roads could be an important part. Electric roads enable heavy vehicles to charge their batteries while driving, which is expected to contribute to environmentally friendly and time-efficient freight transports. To implement electric roads, availability of electric power along the electric roads will be required. This study presents a plan for connecting an electric road to the electricity grid in the electricity network area of Vattenfall Eldistribution. From the results, the idea was to present general conclusions from the experiences of the study, that could contribute in further implementation of electric roads.  The road that has been selected for the study was the E4 between Gävle and Stockholm. A model for calculating the power demand along the electric road has been modeled and connection possibilities to transformer stations has been investigated. The analysis was based on three scenarios where different degrees of strengthening of the existing electricity network were assumed. In addition, a forecast for 2030 and a cost estimation for each scenario has been carried out. The result of the study indicates that for road sections close to larger cities, there are a larger number of connection options in comparison to rural areas. Furthermore, the designed solution in the study required strengthening of the electricity grid and the investment cost was 362 million Swedish crowns.

The transport sector accounts for a third of Sweden’s total greenhouse gas emissions where cars and heavy trucks dominate the use of fossil fuels. The Swedish government is now intensifying the work for an electrified transport sector where electric roads could be an important part. Electric roads enable heavy vehicles to charge their batteries while driving, which is expected to contribute to environmentally friendly and time-efficient freight transports. To implement electric roads, availability of electric power along the electric roads will be required. This study presents a plan for connecting an electric road to the electricity grid in the electricity network area of Vattenfall Eldistribution. From the results, the idea was to present general conclusions from the experiences of the study, that could contribute in further implementation of electric roads. The road that has been selected for the study was the E4 between Gävle and Stockholm. A model for calculating the power demand along the electric road has been modeled and connection possibilities to transformer stations has been investigated. The analysis was based on three scenarios where different degrees of strengthening of the existing electricity network were assumed. In addition, a forecast for 2030 and a cost estimation for each scenario has been carried out. The result of the study indicates that for road sections close to larger cities, there are a larger number of connection options in comparison to rural areas. Furthermore, the designed solution in the study required strengthening of the electricity grid and the investment cost was 362 million Swedish crowns.

In dieser Dissertation wird ein Prozess für die absorptive CO2-Abtrennung aus Gasströmen vorgestellt, der durch die Nutzung des neu entwickelten Waschmittels GenosorbN in einem Postcombustion-Prozess einen geringeren Energiebedarf als bisher bekannte Verfahren aufweist. Für die Nachrüstung bereits vorhandener Kraftwerke ist der Postcombustion-Prozess vorteilhaft, da er im Vergleich zum IGCC- oder dem Oxyfuel-Verfahren die geringsten Änderungen im Kraftwerksprozess selbst erfordert. Die bisher für die CO2-Abtrennung diskutierten Absorptionsmittel, wie z. B. MEA (Mono-Ethanol-Amin), haben allerdings vor allem in der Regeneration einen sehr hohen Energiebedarf, der vom Kraftwerk zusätzlich zur Verfügung gestellt werden muss. In Zusammenarbeit zwischen dem Institut für Verfahrenstechnik und Umwelttechnik der TU Dresden und der Clariant GmbH wurde das Absorptionsmittel GenosorbN (chemische Bezeichnung: Poly(methyldiglykol)amin) entwickelt. GenosorbN weist als Hybrid-Waschmittel gegenüber CO2 sowohl physikalische als auch chemische Bindungseigenschaften auf. Ausgehend von der Löslichkeitscharakteristik dieses Absorptionsmittels für CO2 und wichtigen Stoffwerten (z. B. Wärmekapazität und Lösungswärme von CO2) wurden mit Hilfe eines umfangreichen Versuchsprogramms an einer Technikumsanlage Betriebsparameter für einen energetisch günstigen technischen Einsatz ermittelt. Dabei hat sich herausgestellt, dass der Absorptionsprozess mit unverdünntem GenosorbN gegenüber einer MEA-Wäsche bei einem CO2-Abscheidegrad von ca. 90 % einen um ca. 20 - 27 % geringeren Energiebedarf in der Waschmittelregeneration aufweisen kann. Außerdem ist für die Desorption ein energetisch minderwertiger Heizdampf mit geringerem Temperatur- bzw. Druckniveau als bei dem MEA-Prozess ausreichend, da die Regenerationstemperatur um 40 - 50 K niedriger ist. Eine zusätzliche Druckabsenkung auf 400 mbar Absolutdruck im Desorber begünstigt die Regeneration deutlich. / This dissertation presents a process for the absorptive CO2-separation from gas streams, which shows a lower energy requirement than established methods by using the newly developed absorption liquid GenosorbN in a postcombustion-process. To retrofit an already existing power plant, the postcombustion-process is advantageous, because it needs the least changes in the power plant-process itself compared to the IGCC- or the Oxyfuel-process. The absorbents discussed for the CO2-separation up to now, for example MEA (mono-ethanol-amine), cause a high energy requirement mainly in the solvent regeneration, which has to be provided additionally from the power plant. The solvent GenosorbN (chemical notation: poly(methyldiglycol)amine) was developed in cooperation between the Institute of Process Engineering and Environmental Engineering of the Technical University of Dresden and the Clariant GmbH. GenosorbN is a hybrid-absorbent and therefore it shows both physical and chemical bonding forces. Based on the solvents characteristic of solubility for CO2 and important data on chemical media (for example heat capacity and enthalpy of solution) operating parameters for an energetic advantageous technical application were identified by a lot of test series at a pilot plant. The measurements show that the absorption process with the undiluted GenosorbN has a circa 20 - 27 % lower energy demand for the solvent regeneration compared to the MEA-process to reach a degree of separation of 90 %. Furthermore a low-value heating steam with lower temperature and therefore lower pressure level suffices because of the significant lower (40 - 50 K) regeneration temperature. An additional pressure reduction to 400 mbar absolute pressure in the regeneration column favours the solvent regeneration considerably.