No / Motivated by an extensive literature showing that government bond yields exhibit a strong non-Markov property, in the sense that moving averages of long-lagged yields significantly improve the predictability of excess bond returns. We then develop a systematic approach of constructing non-Markov Gaussian dynamic term structure models (GDTSMs) under the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) framework. Compared to the current literature, our approach is more flexible and parsimonious, enabling us to estimate an economically significant non-Markov effect that helps predict excess bond returns both in-sample and out-of-sample.

Nous avons développé un modèle prédictif, utilisant le principe de contribution de groupes, pour prédire avec précision, le comportement des fluides pétroliers. Ce modèle baptisé PPR78 utilise l’équation d’état de Peng et Robinson et des règles de mélange de type Van der Waals avec un coefficient d’interaction binaire kij, dépendant de la température. De telles règles de mélange sont équivalentes à celles obtenues en combinant à compacité constante une fonction d’excès de type Van Laar et une équation d’état cubique.La première partie de cette étude a consisté à étendre le domaine d’application du modèle PPR78 aux systèmes contenant de l’eau, des alcènes et de l’hydrogène, en définissant six nouveaux groupes élémentaires. Une bonne précision du modèle est obtenue pour décrire les équilibres de phases de systèmes binaires impliquant ces constituants, notamment pour les systèmes présentant des diagrammes de phases de Type I et de Type II. Dans la deuxième partie l’ensemble des paramètres de groupes ont été réajustés, non seulement sur des données d’équilibres de phases mais également sur des données de grandeur de mélange. L’avantage de ce nouveau modèle E-PPR78 est qu’il permet de restituer les équilibres de phases avec une précision équivalente au modèle original et qu’il conduit à une très nette amélioration de la prédiction des enthalpies d’excès et des capacités calorifiques d’excès. / We have developed a predictive model, by means of a group contribution method, in order to predict with accuracy, the behavior of petroleum fluids. The model called PPR78 uses the Peng-Robinson equation of state and Van der Waals-type mixing rules with a temperature dependent binary interaction parameter kij. Such mixing rules are identical to those obtained by combining at constant packing fraction, a Van Laar-type excess function and a cubic equation of state.The first part of this study consisted in extending the application of the model PPR78 to systems containing water, alkenes and hydrogen, by defining six new elementary groups. The phase equilibria of binary systems involving these components are accurately described by the model, especially for the phase diagrams of Type I and Type II. In the second part, all the group parameters of the original model were re-fitted by using the phase equilibrium data, as well as the mixing property data. The advantage of this new model E-PPR78 is that it is capable to correlate the phase equilibria with an accuracy which is equivalent to the original model and it produces a very clear improvement in the prediction of excess enthalpies and excess heat capacities.

Pour les entreprises concernées par le phénomène du vieillissement, le rapport entre la structure par âge de la main d’œuvre, les profils des salaires et de productivité est un élément clé abordé dans cette thèse. Le premier chapitre passe en revue divers concepts théoriques et décrit les résultats empiriques en ce qui concerne le profil des salaires et de productivité en fonction de l’âge. L’étude empirique présentée dans le chapitre deux évalue le profil de productivité marginale selon l'âge. Nous considérons la main d'œuvre à la fois par qualification (peu qualifiés, hautement qualifiés) et par âge (jeunes, âge moyen, âgés). Nous estimons, sur des données françaises d'entreprises, une fonction de production de type CES emboîtée qui autorise une substitution imparfaite entre les différentes catégories de travailleurs. Parmi les résultats principaux, nous avons trouvé que la productivité du travail par l’âge dépend étroitement de la catégorie de qualification et du secteur d’activité des travailleurs. Le chapitre trois analyse le comportement des juniors et des seniors, en particulier leurs attitudes face au risque, la confiance en soi et la propension à entrer en compétition. Pour cela, nous avons organisé une expérience avec des banquiers suisse. Nous trouvons que, bien que les deux générations ne présentent ni des différences considérables quant à leurs attitudes face au risque, ni face à l’ambiguïté, les seniors font preuve d’une propension plus élevée à entrer en compétition. Cette décision est clairement influencée par l’information sur l’âge des autres participants. De plus, les deux générations maximisent leurs profits dans les groupes équilibrés en termes d’âge. / The relationship between the age structure of workforce, earnings and productivity profiles is a key issue for the enterprises facing the phenomenon of ageing. The present thesis addresses these issues in the following order. The first chapter reviews different theoretical concepts and recent empirical findings concerning the profile of earnings and productivity by age. The empirical study presented in the chapter two aims at estimating the actual profile of labour productivity across different age groups. In this purpose, we differentiate the workforce simultaneously by skills (low-skilled, high-skilled) and by age (young, middle-aged, old). Using French firm-level data, we estimate a production function with a nested constant-elasticity-of-substitution (CES) specification in labour, which allows the imperfect substitution between different age and skill categories of workers. Among the main findings, labour productivity by age highly depends on skill category of workers and the sector of activity. The third chapter involves the behavioural analysis of the workforce composed of juniors and seniors. In particular, we study workers’ risk attitudes, self-confidence and propensity to enter the competition. In this purpose, we perform an artefactual field experiment with the employees of a Swiss bank. We find that, although there are no significant differences in attitudes towards risk and ambiguity between both generations, seniors have higher propensity to enter the competition. The information on age of others players clearly has an impact on this decision. Moreover, the profits of both generations are maximised, when a pool of competitors is balanced in terms of age.

Many complexity measures are defined as the size of a minimal representation in a specific model class. One such complexity measure, which is important because it is widely applied, is statistical complexity. It is defined for discrete-time, stationary stochastic processes within a theory called computational mechanics. Here, a mathematically rigorous, more general version of this theory is presented, and abstract properties of statistical complexity as a function on the space of processes are investigated. In particular, weak-* lower semi-continuity and concavity are shown, and it is argued that these properties should be shared by all sensible complexity measures. Furthermore, a formula for the ergodic decomposition is obtained. The same results are also proven for two other complexity measures that are defined by different model classes, namely process dimension and generative complexity. These two quantities, and also the information theoretic complexity measure called excess entropy, are related to statistical complexity, and this relation is discussed here. It is also shown that computational mechanics can be reformulated in terms of Frank Knight's prediction process, which is of both conceptual and technical interest. In particular, it allows for a unified treatment of different processes and facilitates topological considerations. Continuity of the Markov transition kernel of a discrete version of the prediction process is obtained as a new result.

The goal of this graduation thesis is a proposal of domain names valuation methodology. For the purpose of valuation the domain names are divided into three classes based on the manner of generation of their utility which is the main value making factor. For the domain names class which is able to generate cash flow itself there are two income methods proposed -- DCF method and market comparison method. The domain names which serve as a marketing tool and therefore their utility is projected into incomes for products and services, are marked as class two. Their valuation is based on excess earnings method and profit premium method. The last class is the domain names whose utility is not known and neither obvious. Their valuation is made through combination of expanse and income methods in the form of point method. Model examples of valuation for each class of domain names are mentioned in the last chapter.

Many complexity measures are defined as the size of a minimal representation in a specific model class. One such complexity measure, which is important because it is widely applied, is statistical complexity. It is defined for discrete-time, stationary stochastic processes within a theory called computational mechanics. Here, a mathematically rigorous, more general version of this theory is presented, and abstract properties of statistical complexity as a function on the space of processes are investigated. In particular, weak-* lower semi-continuity and concavity are shown, and it is argued that these properties should be shared by all sensible complexity measures. Furthermore, a formula for the ergodic decomposition is obtained. The same results are also proven for two other complexity measures that are defined by different model classes, namely process dimension and generative complexity. These two quantities, and also the information theoretic complexity measure called excess entropy, are related to statistical complexity, and this relation is discussed here. It is also shown that computational mechanics can be reformulated in terms of Frank Knight''s prediction process, which is of both conceptual and technical interest. In particular, it allows for a unified treatment of different processes and facilitates topological considerations. Continuity of the Markov transition kernel of a discrete version of the prediction process is obtained as a new result.

further development of the simple and promising analytical probabilistic approach / Urban stormwater management aims at mitigating the adverse impacts of urbanization. Hydrological models are used in support of stormwater management planning and design. There are three main approaches that can be applied for this modeling purpose: (1) continuous simulation approach which is accurate but time-consuming; (2) design storm approach, which is widely used and its accuracy highly depends on the selected antecedent moisture conditions and temporal distribution of design storms; and (3) the analytical probabilistic approach which is recently developed and still not used in practice. Although it is time-effective and it can produce results as accurate as the other two approaches; the analytical probabilistic approach requires further developments in order to make it more reliable and accurate. For this purpose, three subtopics are investigated in this thesis. (1) Rainfall data analysis as required by the analytical probabilistic approach with emphasis on testing the exponentiality of rainfall event duration, volume and interevent time (i.e., time separating it from its preceding rainfall event). A goodness-of-fit testing procedure that is suitable for this kind of data analysis was proposed. (2) Derivation of new analytical probabilistic models for peak discharge rate incorporating trapezoidal and triangular hydrograph shapes in order to include all possible catchment’s responses. And (3) the infiltration process is assumed to continue until the end of the rainfall event; however, the soil may get saturated earlier and the excess amount would contribute to the runoff volume which may have adverse impact if not taken into consideration. Thus, in addition to the infiltration process, the saturation excess runoff is also included and new models for flood frequencies are developed. All the models developed in this thesis are tested and compared to methods used in practice, reasonable results were obtained. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) / Urban stormwater management aims at mitigating the adverse impacts of urbanization. Hydrological models are used in support of stormwater management planning and design. The analytical probabilistic stormwater management model (APSWM) is a promising tool for planning and design analysis. The purpose of this thesis is to further develop APSWM in order to make it more reliable and accurate. First, a clear procedure for rainfall data analysis as required by APSWM is provided. Second, a new APSWM is derived incorporating other runoff temporal-distribution patterns. Finally, the possibility of soil layer saturation while it is still raining is added to the model. All the models developed in this thesis are tested and compared to methods used in engineering practice, reasonable results were obtained.

Master of Science / Department of Animal Sciences and Industry / Joe D. Hancock / Six experiments were completed to determine factors influencing the use of distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) in diets for nursery and finishing pigs. In Exp. 1, 105 nursery pigs were fed corn-soybean meal (SBM) based diets with CP concentrations of 22.5, 25, and 27.5%. Overall ADG, ADFI, and G:F were not affected by increasing CP (P > 0.19). In Exp. 2, 105 nursery pigs were fed excess CP from SBM and DDGS. Overall ADG, ADFI, and G:F for pigs fed the control diet were not different from those fed the high CP treatments (P > 0.12). However, pigs fed the DDGS treatment had lower G:F than pigs fed the corn-soy diet with similar CP content (P < 0.04). For Exp. 3, 176 finishing pigs were fed diets with CP concentrations increasing from 12 to 18%. Increasing CP had no effect (P > 0.20) on ADG, ADFI, G:F, and hot carcass weight (HCW). For Exp. 4, 180 finishing pigs were fed excess dietary CP from SBM and DDGS. Pigs fed diets with high CP had lower ADG, ADFI, and HCW, but these results were caused by the diet with 40% DDGS (SBM vs DDGS, P < 0.001). For Exp. 5, 224 nursery pigs were used to determine the effects of extrusion processing on the nutritional value of DDGS. Overall ADG and ADFI were greater for pigs fed the corn-soy control compared to the DDGS treatments (P < 0.02). Extruding the DDGS did not improve ADG or G:F (P > 0.11), but DM and GE digestibility were greater for diets with extruded DDGS vs. unprocessed DDGS (P < 0.04). In Exp. 6, 200 finishing pigs were fed DDGS-based diets formulated for ME, NE, and digestible amino acids. Feeding DDGS lowered ADG (P < 0.09) and ADFI (P < 0.05). Formulating for ME, NE, and digestible amino acids needs improved ADG and G:F (P < 0.002) to that of the corn-soy control diet. In conclusion, moderate excesses of dietary CP does not impact growth performance. Also, extruding DDGS can improve the nutritional value of diets for nursery pig and formulating for ME, NE and digestible amino acid needs can improve growth performance of finishing pigs fed diets with high levels of DDGS.

Darbe atlikta detali aktualių straipsnių, nagrinėjančių įvairių veiksnių įtaka skolos vertybinių popierių pajamingumui, apžvalga. Išskirti keli pagrindiniai pajamingumo pokyčius lemiantys veiksniai: likvidumas, kredito rizika bei bendra makroekonominė padėtis. Siekiant įvertinti nagrinėjamų veiksnių įtaką skolos vertybinių popierių pajamingumo pokyčiams, sukurti vektorinės autoregresijos modeliai skolos vertybinių popierių portfeliams, apibendrinantiems skirtingas skolos vertybinių popierių klases. Palyginus modeliavimo rezultatus, pateikiamos baigiamojo darbo išvados. Darbą sudaro 18 dalių: įvadas, tikslas, uždaviniai, aktualumas, literatūros apžvalga, pagrindiniai skolos vertybinių popierių rinką charakterizuojantys rodikliai, statistiniai metodai, modelio aprašymas, kintamujų aprašymas bei transformacijos, statistinė analizė, trendo išskyrimas, stacionarumo patikrinimas, modeliavimas, modelių palyginimas bei scenarijų analizė, išvados, literatūros sąrašas. / A brief survey of relevant researches on different factors’ impact on bonds’ yields is provided in master thesis. Several main factors were identified: liquidity, credit risk and macroeconomic environment. In order to measure the impact of distinguished factors on the yields’ changes vector autoregressive models for fixed income securities portfolios, generalizing different asset classes, were created. The modeling results are described and analyzed, conclusions are made Structure: introduction, goal, task, relevance, literature overview, the main indicators of sixed income securities market, statistical methods, models’ describtion, variables’ description and transformations, statistical analysis, elimination of the trend, stacionarity check, modeling, models’ comparison and scenario analysis, conclusions, references.

Résumé : Introduction L’adoption de saines habitudes de vie (SHV) dès le jeune âge constitue une stratégie gagnante contre l’excès de poids (EP). Or, la promotion d’un mode de vie sain auprès des parents visant à les encourager et les soutenir auprès de leur enfant pour qu’ils adoptent de SHV est essentielle. À ce titre, l’infirmière occupe une position privilégiée. En ce sens, elle doit se questionner sur les approches à privilégier. But Mettre en lumière, en partenariat avec des infirmières œuvrant auprès de familles avec jeunes enfants, des pistes de solution afin de soutenir les parents dans l’adoption de SHV pour leurs enfants. Objectifs 1) informer les infirmières en estimant la prévalence de l’EP des jeunes enfants de leur région; 2) décrire les représentations sociales (RS) du poids et des habitudes de vie selon les parents d’un enfant d’âge préscolaire; 3) explorer le point de vue des infirmières concernant des stratégies d’intervention visant à promouvoir les SHV à la lumière des résultats des objectifs précédents et 4) déterminer les priorités parmi les stratégies proposées en collaboration avec des parents, experts et intervenants du réseau de la santé. Méthode Recherche-action en 4 cycles. Chaque cycle correspond à un objectif de l’étude. L’amorce de la réflexion le cycle 1 - Enquête transversale en contexte de vaccination - 259 enfants de 4-5 ans pesés et mesurés. Nourrir la réflexion, le cycle 2 - Entrevues semi-dirigées - 14 parents d’enfants âgés de 4-5 ans de poids normal et en EP. Passer à l’action les cycles 3 et 4, le cycle 3 - Groupe de discussion - 8 infirmières et 2 nutritionnistes et le cycle 4 - En 3 séquences 1) groupe de discussion auprès de parents, 2) questionnaire acheminé par courriel aux experts et 3) groupe de discussion auprès de participantes ayant collaboré au cycle 3. Résultats Cycle 1 - prévalence estimée de 26,3 % d’EP (20,1 % embonpoint - 6.2 % obésité). Cycle 2 - RS du poids, 1) le poids est un enjeu de santé pour les parents d’un enfant de poids normal ou 2) l’apparence potelée s’avère normale pour les parents d’un enfant en EP. RS des habitudes de vie, pour tous les parents il s’agit d’un défi exigeant. Cycle 3 et 4 - Pistes de solution proposées : viser la conscientisation et la sensibilisation des parents fondées sur leur point de vue et celui des intervenants impliqués en se basant sur le développement des aptitudes des personnes (familles) à faire des choix éclairés, l’accessibilité à l’information et la réorientation des services à la communauté. Conclusion L’étude illustre un processus de concertation en regard d’une problématique de santé pour arriver à dégager une action efficace basée sur les besoins du milieu. // Abstract : Introduction Adopting healthy lifestyle habits (HLH) starting at a young age has proven to be successful in preventing overweight (OW). It is therefore vital to present a healthy lifestyle to parents in such a way as to encourage and support them and their young child as they adopt HLH. Nurses are in an ideal position to fulfill this role; to do so, they must find the best possible ways of proving support to parents. Objective In conjunction with the nurses working with the families of young children, highlight possible solutions that will support parents in their efforts to adopt a healthy lifestyle for their children. Goals 1) inform nurses of the prevalence of OW in young children in their region of intervention; 2) describe the social representations of weight and lifestyle, according to the parents of preschool-age child; 3) explore nurses’ opinions on the intervention strategies aimed at promoting HLH, given the results of goals 1 and 2; and 4) in collaboration with parents, experts and members of the health-care system, prioritize the proposed intervention strategies. Method Action research in four phases. Each phase corresponds to a study goal. Phase 1 – Initiate Planning – Cross-sectional survey during preschool vaccination - 259 children aged 4-5 years are weighed and measured. Phase 2 – Planning Continues – Semi-structured interviews - 14 parents of normal-weight and OW children aged 4-5 years. Phases 3 and 4 – From Planning to Action - Phase 3 – Discussion group with 8 nurses and two dieticians and Phase 4 – In three parts 1) discussion group with parents, 2) questionnaire e-mailed to experts, and 3) discussion group with individuals who participated in Phase 3. Results Phase 1 – estimated incidence of OW is 26.3% (20.1% had excess body weight; 6.2% were obese). Phase 2 - Social representations of weight, 1) weight is a health issue for parents of normal-weight children or 2) the chubbiness of OW children seems normal to their parents. Social representations of lifestyle: for all participating parents, this was a difficult challenge. Phase 3 and 4 - Proposed solutions: based on input by the parents’ and nurses involved, devise initiatives aimed at raising parental awareness, and focus on developing the skills that people (i.e., families) need to make informed choices, making information more accessible and redirecting community services. Conclusion The study illustrates a consultation process on a health issue that led to identifying effective action based on community needs.