Pengarna rullar allt snabbare inom fotbollen och från Southampton säljs de båda tonåringarna Theo Walcott och Gareth Bale för £5 miljoner styck. Båda de händelserna följdes av ett kursfall för Southamptons aktie vilket skulle kunna tolkas som att marknaden inte tyckte det var goda nyheter. Detta leder oss till vår problemformulering: Hur påverkas börsnoterade fotbollsklubbars aktiekurser vid spelarövergångar? Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka om det finns en avvikande avkastning i samband med en spelarövergång. Vi undersöker även om det är någon skillnad mellan spelarköp och spelarförsäljningar. Detta gör vi genom en event-studie med 70 övergångar där vi jämför avkastningen från klubbarnas aktier med förväntad avkastning. Vi använder oss av indexet FTSE100 för att få fram den förväntade avkastningen. Vi använder oss av främst Famas och Nofsingers teorier i vår teoretiska referensram. Fama beskriver den effektiva marknaden medan Nofsingers teori går in på olika typer av nyheter och deras påverkan av aktiekursen. Vi har även sett till Peterson som studerat hur rykten påverkar aktiekurser. Vi finner i våra statistiska test att spelarövergångar påverkar aktiekursen negativt på dagen då nyheten tillkännages. Vi kan dock se att det endast är spelarköp som har en signifikant avvikande avkastning på händelsedagen. I gruppen spelarförsäljningar ser vi inga resultat eller mönster som går att statistiskt säkerställa. Det bör även klargöras att det endast är en genomsnittlig avvikande avkastning på 0,75 procent vid spelarförsäljningar och det är inte en speciellt avvikande.

[pt] Este trabalho objetivou realizar um estudo de caso para analisar a performance da ação da Lojas Americanas (LAME 4), negociada na BMeFBOVESPA, utilizando quatro modelos de previsão de retornos esperados. Os modelos escolhidos foram: CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) de Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) e Mossin (1966), modelo de 3 fatores de Fama e French (1992), modelo de 4 fatores de Fama, French e Carhart (1997) e o modelo APT (Arbitrage Pricing Theory) de Ross (1996). A metodologia foi estruturada em duas partes: utilização de regressões múltiplas para verificar a significância dos fatores em cada modelo e comparação dos resultados para indicar aquele que se mostrou mais adequado para explicar o comportamento do ativo. Por fim, o modelo de três fatores de Fama, French revelou-se mais apropriado. / [en] The objective of this study was to conduct a case study to analyze the performance of the Lojas Americanas stock (LAME 4), traded on the BMeFBOVESPA, using four expected returns prediction models. The chosen models were CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) of Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) and Mossin (1966), model of 3 factors of Fama and French (1992), model of 4 factors of Fama, French and Carhart (1997) and the APT (Arbitrage Pricing Theory) model of Ross (1996). The methodology was structured in two parts: the use of multiple regressions to verify the significance of the factors in each model and the comparison of the results to indicate the one that was more adequate to explain the behavior of the asset. Finally, the three-factor model of Fama, French was found to be more appropriate.

O estudo analisa a influência dos boatos na vitória de César sobre Pompeu, ocorrida nas guerras civis de 49 e 48 a.C. Apesar do breve período de disputas, tem como recorte temporal os anos de 54 a 48 a.C., pois foi aí que apareceram os primeiros boatos das lutas entre os generais. Para tanto, toma como fontes obras de gêneros literários variados, situadas entre os séculos I a.C. e IV d.C. Dentro de tal corpus, destacam-se os Comentários sobre as Guerras Civis, redigidos por César, as Cartas a Ático e as Cartas aos Amigos, escritas por Cícero, e a Farsália, composta por Lucano. O referencial teórico abrange os conceitos de boato, janelas de oportunidades, ação coletiva e memória social. O objetivo geral é compreender a relação entre uma stasis, a propagação de boatos e a mobilização dos grupos. Seguem-no os objetivos específicos, por meio dos quais o estudo analisa de que modo as ações coletivas oportunizavam vantagens ou desvantagens militares, e também precisa como a formação de alianças tornou César o favorito ao sucesso. Considera que os boatos foram decisivos para o triunfo cesariano, pois contribuíram para a conquista de apoio, a rendição de cidades e a aquisição de recursos. / This work analyses the influence of rumours concerning the victory of Caesar over Pompey during the civil wars in 49 and 48 BC. Despite the brief period of disputes, this study considers a time frame that encompasses the years from 54 to 48 BC, for it was during this period that appeared the first rumours about the dispute between these generals. For this end, the study takes as sources works of varied literary genres from the 1st Century BC to the 4th Century AD. Within such a corpus, we highlight the Commentaries on the Civil War, written by Caesar, the Letters to Atticus and the Letters to Friends, authored by Cicero, and the Pharsalia, written by Lucan. The theoretical references embrace the concepts of rumour, windows of opportunity, collective action and social memory. The general purpose of this research is to understand the relation between a stasis, rumour spread and the mobilization of groups. The specific objectives concern the understanding of how the collective actions propitiated military advantages and disadvantages; also they specify how the formation of alliances made Caesar the favourite to succeed. It is considered that the rumours were decisive for the triumph of Caesar, due to their contribution regarding the obtainment of support, the surrender of cities and the acquisition of resources.

This thesis deals with the description and testing of the capital market models. It consists of an analysis of the most famous models such as the CAPM, the three-factor Fama-French model, the four-factor Fama-French-Carhart model and an alternative multi-factor model that includes the current relevant risk factors. In the first part, one can find the introduction to the capital market theory that is essential for the definition of model assumptions. The second part is dedicated to the description and construction of the models in reference to the relevant research papers. The last part of this thesis contains the regression model estimates, taking into account the data set of the fifteen most profitable IT companies. A portfolio of these firms is expected to exhibit a positive and statistically significant alpha. Daily portfolio returns in the period 1990 -- 2014 are regressed on risk factors of particular models. The aim of this thesis is to test whether the capital market models are valid for the long-term portfolio returns composed of the selected shares.

This study explores the influence of inflation on the monthly total stock returns and stock pricing of Swedish banks. The research question is systematically examined througha cross sectional and time series analysis, utilizing Fama-French, Carhart, and Fama-Macbeth metodologies. Contrary to the initial hypothesis, the outcomes from the Fama-French-Carhart regression, incorporating the inflation factor, reveal a consistently negative effect of inflationon stock returns across Swedish banks. This unexpected result challenges the anticipated relationship between inflation and stock returns. Furthermore, the assessment of risk premiums via the Fama-Macbeth regression does not identify a statistically significant risk premium for inflation exposure. These findings contribute to understanding the dynamics between inflation and the financial performance of Swedish banks, prompting further inquiry into the factors influencing stock returns in the presence of inflationary pressures.

[pt] A intenção do presente estudo é avaliar o desempenho do mercado acionário brasileiro, no período pós-estabilização econômica, através da utilização dos modelos financeiros APT e CAPM a fim de verificar qual deles é melhor capaz de retratar o desempenho das ações. O modelo CAPM foi comparado a dois modelos APT distintos: o Modelo de Três Fatores de Fama e French, e o Modelo APT Unificado ao CAPM proposto por John Wei, onde foram utilizados fatores macroeconômicos além do fator de mercado. Em todos os modelos o prêmio de risco se mostrou relevante. O Modelo de Três Fatores apresentou melhor capacidade explicativa em relação ao CAPM. Todavia, este modelo apresentou uma anomalia do mercado brasileiro, tendo as empresas de pequeno porte apresentado retornos menores que as empresas grandes. A utilização deste modelo implicaria na crença que esta anomalia irá perdurar no futuro. No modelo APT Unificado ao CAPM não foi possível rejeitar a hipótese da inexistêcia de prêmio de risco de todos fatores simultaneamente. Além disso, o ganho de poder explicativo do modelo quando comparado ao CAPM foi insignificante. / [en] This study analyses the Brazilian stock market after the stabilization of the local economy using the APT and CAPM models to evaluate which of them better reflect stock performance. The CAPM was compared to two different APT models: Fama and French Three Factor Model, and An Asset Pricing Theory Unifying the CAPM and APT as proposed by John Wei based on macroeconomic factors and the market premium. For all models the market premium was a relevant variable. The Fama and French Three Factor Model was superior in explaining stock returns than the CAPM, although the size factor for the Brazilian market had an anomaly behavior: large companies outperformed small companies. The use of this model implies that this anomaly will continue in the future which is against the risk-return theory. For model Unifying the CAPM and APT it was not possible to reject the hypothesis that all variables are statically different than zero simultaneously. The increase in explaining power of the model was marginal compared to the CAPM.

In this Portfolio Optimization Project, we used Markowitz¡¯s modern portfolio theory for portfolio optimization. We selected fifteen stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and gathered these stocks¡¯ historical data from Yahoo Finance [1]. Then we used Markowitz¡¯s theory to analyze this data in order to obtain the optimal weights of our initial portfolio. To maintain our investment in a current tangency portfolio, we recalculated the optimal weights and rebalanced the positions every week. In the CAPM project, we used the security characteristic line to calculate the stocks¡¯ daily returns. We also computed the risk of each asset, portfolio beta, and portfolio epsilons. In the Factor Modeling project, we computed estimates of each asset¡¯s expected returns and return variances of fifteen stocks for each of our factor models. Also we computed estimates of the covariances among our asset returns. In order to find which model performs best, we compared each portfolio¡¯s actual return with its corresponding estimated portfolio return.

In this Portfolio Optimization Project, we used Markowitz¡¯s modern portfolio theory for portfolio optimization. We selected fifteen stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and gathered these stocks¡¯ historical data from Yahoo Finance [1]. Then we used Markowitz¡¯s theory to analyze this data in order to obtain the optimal weights of our initial portfolio. To maintain our investment in a current tangency portfolio, we recalculated the optimal weights and rebalanced the positions every week. In the CAPM project, we used the security characteristic line to calculate the stocks¡¯ daily returns. We also computed the risk of each asset, portfolio beta, and portfolio epsilons. In the Factor Modeling project, we computed estimates of each asset¡¯s expected returns and return variances of fifteen stocks for each of our factor models. Also we computed estimates of the covariances among our asset returns. In order to find which model performs best, we compared each portfolio¡¯s actual return with its corresponding estimated portfolio return.

In my Senior Thesis, I explore the growth of socially responsible investing (SRI) practices in U.S. equity markets and abnormal sin stocks returns. I analyze the historical performance of socially responsible ETFs and portfolios of current sin stocks—alcohol, tobacco, gaming, and aerospace & defense stocks. I propose that as socially responsible investing practices continue to grow in U.S. equity markets, more industries will eventually be deemed sinful—such as sugary beverages, fast food/sugary food, biotech & pharmaceuticals, and tech/social media. I examine two sinful industries—alcohol and tobacco—by comparing the performance of these sinful portfolios before and after their industries were widely perceived as sinful. I explored these topics for a few key reasons. First, socially responsible investing practices in U.S. equity markets have exploded in popularity over the last decade. Every year, we see increasing amounts of money screened for environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors. Despite its increase in popularity, many people have claimed that socially responsible investing isn’t financially responsible investing—it underperforms as compared to common benchmarks such as the S&P 500. On the other hand, existing literature has supported the claim that investing in sin stocks generates abnormal returns for investors. I hypothesize that these two areas of portfolio management are connected—as socially responsible investing practices continue to grow, more industries will eventually be widely perceived as sinful. If the sin stock anomaly does exist and portfolios of sin stocks do generate abnormal returns, individuals and institutions can benefit from an immediate and long term investment strategy by investing in these “future” sinful industries now. Using three distinct capital asset pricing models—the Fama-French 3 Factor Model, the Fama-French 3 Factor Model plus Momentum, and the Fama-French 5 Factor Model—I come to four main conclusions. First, investing in socially responsible ETFs does not generate positive abnormal returns; in some instances, it generates statistically significant negative abnormal returns. Second, across the Fama-French 3 Factor Model, the Fama-French 3 Factor Model plus Momentum, and the Fama-French 5 Factor Model, portfolios of sin stocks from 1977-2018 generate statistically significant positive abnormal returns. Third, during the same time horizon, portfolios of future sin stocks exhibit similar levels of abnormal returns, especially portfolios of biotech & pharmaceutical stocks and portfolios of tech/social media stocks. Finally, portfolios of alcohol and tobacco stocks generated statistically significant abnormal returns after being widely perceived as sinful as compared to before they were widely perceived as sinful. My research has implications for practicing portfolio managers. First, socially responsible investing isn’t financially responsible investing. Second, portfolio managers should consider how the growth of socially responsible investing practices will impact perceptions of what is sinful. Anticipating which industries will become sinful can yield a profitable investment strategy. Third, I promote a profitable investment strategy in the short- and long-term time horizon. The results are clear: go long on sin and short on SRI.

<p>Denna studie undersöker hur förvärvande företags långsiktiga aktieavkastning påverkas av att förvärva andra företag. Vilket betalningsmedel som används vid förvärvet och storleken på det förvärvande företaget är faktorer vars inverkan på avkastningen efter förvärv testas. I studiepopulationen ingår 20 förvärv som genomförts under åren 1999-2005. Genom en kvantitativ undersökningsmetod insamlas data för aktieavkastning för dessa 20 företag och förväntad avkastning skattas med hjälp av Fama-Frenchs trefaktormodell. Därefter genomförs statistiska hypotestest som jämför förväntad avkastning med faktisk avkastning för den månad som infaller två år efter att förvärvet genomförts. Resultaten tyder på att företagen ger en lägre genomsnittlig avkastning än den förväntade, men dessa resultat har inte kunnat beläggas med statistisk signifikans.</p> / <p>This study examines how stock returns of acquiring firms are affected by the acquiring of other firms. The means of payment and the size of the acquiring firm are elements whose impacts on stock returns are studied. Included in the study population are 20 mergers and acquisitions that took place during the years of 1999-2005. Using a quantitative research method, the author collects stock returns for the included firms and expected stock returns are estimated using the Fama-French Three Factor Model. Subsequently, statistical hypothesis tests are performed that compare expected returns to actual returns for the particular month occurring two years after each acquisition has been implemented. The results indicate that the firms on average generate lower actual returns than expected returns. However, these results have not been found statistically significant.</p>