The thesis deals with the influence over price of one-family houses according to location in and beyond the flood zone. Simulated localities are situated in Krnov and Bruntál. The thesis analyzes the specifics of the localities and researches the possible impacts of property´s location and price.

When analyzing the flood risk using multi-criteria analysis it is necessary to estimate

This study investigates the aspects of resilience in the management strategies of the key stakeholders of flood risk management in the city of Accra, Ghana. The overall objective is to analyse the response capacity in the strategies of the key stakeholders in flood risk management for managing the unexpected course of flood disasters in addition to the expected features of flood risk. To achieve the set objective, the following research questions are addressed: Who are the key stakeholders of flood risk management in the city of Accra? How are these stakeholders dealing with the unexpected course of flood disasters in addition to the expected features of flood risk in their management strategies? How could the capacity of the strategies for responding to the unexpected course of flood disasters be advanced? The inductive case study design applies document analyses, semi-structured interviews as well as key stakeholder identification and validation methods. Scientific and policy documents about resilience and flood risk management were reviewed. The research participants were mainly directors and representatives of organisations in flood risk management of the study. Empirical findings include key stakeholders in flood risk management as well as aspects of resilience and anticipation in flood risk management strategies. The main finding on the key stakeholders of flood risk management are national, district, civil society, and private sector organisations as well as traditional authorities (local chiefs). Aspects of resilience in flood risk management strategies comprises omnivorousness, agile and timely flow of response resource, homoeostasis, flatness of the response structure and process, redundancy of the response resources and buffer capacity. Findings revealed resilience regarding diversity in sources of resource and responses for dealing with unexpected course of flood disasters. The aspects of anticipation are described as resistance to known risk, maintenance of boundary conditions of the management strategies and specialisation for dealing with specific flood risk within and among organisations. Regarding anticipation, results indicate that there are measures for resisting known flood risk but their implementation is ineffective. Based upon the findings, hypotheses are derived for advancement of resilience and anticipation in flood risk management strategies. Involvement of the local chiefs, Slum Union of Ghana, Local Development Associations of flood-prone communities and key private sector organisations in flood risk management strategies in the city of Accra would amend their response capacities in diversity of sources of response resources and allow for advanced resilience regarding their responses to the impacts of land-use changes and the waste disposal in watercourses. Recommendations refer to prospects to advance the response capacity of key stakeholders of flood risk management strategies by integrating traditional authorities and private organisations in flood risk management in the city of Accra.:Note on the commencement of the doctoral procedure i Declaration of conformity ii Acknowledgement iv Abstract vi Table of contents x List of figures xv List of tables xvi List of abbreviations xvii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Problem statement 2 1.3 Objectives and research questions 12 1.4 Justification of the study 16 1.5 Structure of this research 17 2 Conceptual framework 20 2.1 Basic concepts in flood risk management 20 2.1.1 Flood risk 21 2.1.2 Expected and unexpected course of flood disasters 24 2.1.3 Flood risk management 27 2.1.4 Flood risk management strategies 30 2.1.5 Stakeholders of flood risk management strategies 33 2.1.6 Risk governance beyond flood risk management strategies 39 2.2 Resilience in flood risk management strategies 42 2.2.1 Overview of resilience concepts 43 2.2.2 Resilience and flood risk management 49 2.2.3 Operationalisation of resilience in flood risk management strategies 54 3 Research design and methods 71 3.1 Research design 71 3.1.1 Overall design 71 3.1.2 Case study approach 72 3.1.3 Research ethics and access to data 73 3.2 Data collection methods 75 3.2.1 Sampling techniques 75 3.2.2 Documents analysis 75 3.2.3 Expert interviews 76 3.3. Data analysis 78 3.4 Methods for answering the research questions 79 3.4.1 Research question 1: Stakeholder analysis 79 3.4.2 Research question 2: Semi-structured interviews and content analysis 93 3.4.3 Research question 3: Derivation of hypotheses 95 4 Identification of potential key stakeholders and selection of key stakeholders 101 4.1 Principled stakeholders of flood risk management 101 4.2 Potential key stakeholders of flood risk management 104 4.2.1 Potential key stakeholders on international level 104 4.2.2 Potential key stakeholders in flood risk management at the national level 110 4.2.3 Potential key stakeholders of flood risk management from Accra Metropolitan Assembly 119 4.2.4 Potential key stakeholders from non-governmental organisations 123 4.2.5 Potential key stakeholders from business organisations 128 4.2.6 Potential key stakeholders from traditional authorities and opinion leaders 132 4.3 Selection of key stakeholders of flood risk management in the city of Accra 135 4.4 Description of the key stakeholders of flood risk management in the city of Accra 138 5 Resilience and anticipation in flood risk management strategies 143 5.1 Resilience aspects 143 5.1.1 Resilience aspect Omnivorousness of the flood risk management strategy 143 5.1.2 Resilience aspect Agile and timely flow of response rate of the flood risk management strategy 147 5.1.3 Resilience aspect Homeostasis of the flood risk management strategy 155 5.1.4 Resilience aspect Flatness of response process and structure of flood risk management strategy 162 5.1.5 Resilience aspect Redundancy of response resources for flood risk management of the organisations 165 5.1.6 Resilience aspect Buffer capacity of the flood risk management strategy 171 5.2 Aspects of Anticipation 173 5.2.1 Anticipation aspect Resistance to (known) flood risks 173 5.2.2 Anticipation aspect Maintenance of boundary conditions of flood risk management strategy 179 5.2.3 Anticipation aspect Specialisation in dealing with specific courses of flood disasters 182 6 Hypotheses for advancing resilience and anticipation in flood risk management strategies 184 6.1 Hypotheses on advancing resilience in flood risk management strategies 184 6.1.1 Hypotheses for resilience regarding Omnivorousness of the flood risk management strategy 184 6.1.2 Hypothesis for resilience regarding Homoeostasis of flood risk management strategy 186 6.1.3 Hypothesis for resilience regarding agile and timely flow of response rate of the flood risk management strategy 189 6.1.4 Hypothesis for resilience regarding flatness of flood risk management strategy 191 6.1.5 Hypothesis on resilience regarding Redundancy of flood risk management strategies 194 6.1.6 Hypothesis for resilience regarding Buffer capacity of flood risk management strategy 196 6.2 Hypothesis for advancement of anticipation in flood risk management strategies 197 6.2.1 Hypotheses for anticipation regarding Resistance to known flood risk in flood risk management strategy 197 6.2.2 Hypotheses for anticipation regarding maintenance in boundary conditions of flood risk management strategy 201 6.2.3 Hypothesis for anticipation regarding Specialisation for dealing with specific courses of flood disasters 203 7 Discussion of approach and key findings 206 7.1 Conceptual and methodological rigour of the study 206 7.2 Conceptual and empirical relevance for resilience and anticipation in flood risk management strategies 213 7.3 Accomplishment of the research objectives and answers to the research questions 217 7.4 Limitations of this research 226 7.5 Prospects and challenges for future research on resilience in FRM strategies 227 8 Conclusions and recommendations 229 8.1 Conclusions on main contributions of this study 229 8.2 Demand for future research 231 8.3 Recommendations for formulation and implementation of FRM strategies in the city of Accra 232 8.4 General concluding remarks 234 9 References 235 9.1 Literature 235 9.2 Other sources 252 10 Appendices 259 10.1 Appendix I Interview guide 259 10.2 Appendix II Selected interview codes and quotations 264 / Diese Arbeit untersucht Aspekte von Resilienz in den Strategien von Schlüsselakteuren des Hochwasserrisikomanagements in der Stadt Accra (Ghana). Das übergeordnete Ziel besteht darin, das Reaktionsvermögen dieser Akteure in ihren Management-Strategien nicht nur hinsichtlich des erwarteten, sondern vor allem hinsichtlich des unerwarteten Verlaufs von Hochwasserkatastrophen zu untersuchen. Die folgenden drei Forschungsfragen werden untersucht: Wer sind die Schlüsselakteure des Hochwasserrisikomanagements in der Stadt Accra? Wie berücksichtigen diese Akteure in ihren Management-Strategien den unerwarteten Verlauf von Hochwasserkatastrophen zusätzlich zu dem erwarteten Verlauf? Wie könnte das Reaktionsvermögen bezüglich des Umgangs mit dem unerwarteten Verlauf von Hochwasserkatastrophen in diesen Strategien ausgeweitet werden? Im Rahmen des induktiven Fallstudiendesigns werden Dokumentenanalysen, halbstandardisierte Interviews und Gruppendiskussionen eingesetzt. Die daraus resultierenden empirischen Befunde beziehen sich neben der Identifikation der Schlüsselakteure des Hochwasserrisikomanagements auch auf die Aspekte von Resilienz und Antizipation in ihren Management-Strategien. Zu den Schlüsselakteuren zählen nationale und lokale Organisationen, aber auch solche aus der Zivilgesellschaft, dem privaten Sektor und traditionelle Autoritäten. Bei den Aspekten von Resilienz in den Hochwasserrisikomanagement-Strategien handelt es sich um ganzheitliche Herangehensweisen, regen und zeitnahen Einsatz von Ressourcen zur Ereignisbewältigung sowie Pufferkapazitäten. Die Ergebnisse zeigten Widerstandsfähigkeit in Bezug auf die Vielfalt in den Quellen von Ressourcen und Antworten auf den unerwarteten Verlauf von Hochwasserkatastrophen. Die Ergebnisse hinsichtlich der Antizipation von Hochwasserrisikomanagement-Strategien umfassen den Widerstand gegen das bekannte Risiko, die Aufrechterhaltung von Rahmenbedingungen der Management-Strategien und die Spezialisierung auf bestimmte Hochwasserrisiken. Auf den Erkenntnissen über die Aspekte von Resilienz und Antizipation in den Hochwasserrisikomanagement-Strategien aufbauend werden Hypothesen abgeleitet. In den Handlungsempfehlungen werden die Chancen einer Integration traditioneller Autoritäten und anderer Interessensgruppen in das Hochwasserrisikomanagement der Stadt Accra aufgezeigt, wodurch eine Weiterentwicklung der Resilienz in den Hochwasserrisikomanagement-Strategien für die Zukunft erreicht werden kann.:Note on the commencement of the doctoral procedure i Declaration of conformity ii Acknowledgement iv Abstract vi Table of contents x List of figures xv List of tables xvi List of abbreviations xvii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Problem statement 2 1.3 Objectives and research questions 12 1.4 Justification of the study 16 1.5 Structure of this research 17 2 Conceptual framework 20 2.1 Basic concepts in flood risk management 20 2.1.1 Flood risk 21 2.1.2 Expected and unexpected course of flood disasters 24 2.1.3 Flood risk management 27 2.1.4 Flood risk management strategies 30 2.1.5 Stakeholders of flood risk management strategies 33 2.1.6 Risk governance beyond flood risk management strategies 39 2.2 Resilience in flood risk management strategies 42 2.2.1 Overview of resilience concepts 43 2.2.2 Resilience and flood risk management 49 2.2.3 Operationalisation of resilience in flood risk management strategies 54 3 Research design and methods 71 3.1 Research design 71 3.1.1 Overall design 71 3.1.2 Case study approach 72 3.1.3 Research ethics and access to data 73 3.2 Data collection methods 75 3.2.1 Sampling techniques 75 3.2.2 Documents analysis 75 3.2.3 Expert interviews 76 3.3. Data analysis 78 3.4 Methods for answering the research questions 79 3.4.1 Research question 1: Stakeholder analysis 79 3.4.2 Research question 2: Semi-structured interviews and content analysis 93 3.4.3 Research question 3: Derivation of hypotheses 95 4 Identification of potential key stakeholders and selection of key stakeholders 101 4.1 Principled stakeholders of flood risk management 101 4.2 Potential key stakeholders of flood risk management 104 4.2.1 Potential key stakeholders on international level 104 4.2.2 Potential key stakeholders in flood risk management at the national level 110 4.2.3 Potential key stakeholders of flood risk management from Accra Metropolitan Assembly 119 4.2.4 Potential key stakeholders from non-governmental organisations 123 4.2.5 Potential key stakeholders from business organisations 128 4.2.6 Potential key stakeholders from traditional authorities and opinion leaders 132 4.3 Selection of key stakeholders of flood risk management in the city of Accra 135 4.4 Description of the key stakeholders of flood risk management in the city of Accra 138 5 Resilience and anticipation in flood risk management strategies 143 5.1 Resilience aspects 143 5.1.1 Resilience aspect Omnivorousness of the flood risk management strategy 143 5.1.2 Resilience aspect Agile and timely flow of response rate of the flood risk management strategy 147 5.1.3 Resilience aspect Homeostasis of the flood risk management strategy 155 5.1.4 Resilience aspect Flatness of response process and structure of flood risk management strategy 162 5.1.5 Resilience aspect Redundancy of response resources for flood risk management of the organisations 165 5.1.6 Resilience aspect Buffer capacity of the flood risk management strategy 171 5.2 Aspects of Anticipation 173 5.2.1 Anticipation aspect Resistance to (known) flood risks 173 5.2.2 Anticipation aspect Maintenance of boundary conditions of flood risk management strategy 179 5.2.3 Anticipation aspect Specialisation in dealing with specific courses of flood disasters 182 6 Hypotheses for advancing resilience and anticipation in flood risk management strategies 184 6.1 Hypotheses on advancing resilience in flood risk management strategies 184 6.1.1 Hypotheses for resilience regarding Omnivorousness of the flood risk management strategy 184 6.1.2 Hypothesis for resilience regarding Homoeostasis of flood risk management strategy 186 6.1.3 Hypothesis for resilience regarding agile and timely flow of response rate of the flood risk management strategy 189 6.1.4 Hypothesis for resilience regarding flatness of flood risk management strategy 191 6.1.5 Hypothesis on resilience regarding Redundancy of flood risk management strategies 194 6.1.6 Hypothesis for resilience regarding Buffer capacity of flood risk management strategy 196 6.2 Hypothesis for advancement of anticipation in flood risk management strategies 197 6.2.1 Hypotheses for anticipation regarding Resistance to known flood risk in flood risk management strategy 197 6.2.2 Hypotheses for anticipation regarding maintenance in boundary conditions of flood risk management strategy 201 6.2.3 Hypothesis for anticipation regarding Specialisation for dealing with specific courses of flood disasters 203 7 Discussion of approach and key findings 206 7.1 Conceptual and methodological rigour of the study 206 7.2 Conceptual and empirical relevance for resilience and anticipation in flood risk management strategies 213 7.3 Accomplishment of the research objectives and answers to the research questions 217 7.4 Limitations of this research 226 7.5 Prospects and challenges for future research on resilience in FRM strategies 227 8 Conclusions and recommendations 229 8.1 Conclusions on main contributions of this study 229 8.2 Demand for future research 231 8.3 Recommendations for formulation and implementation of FRM strategies in the city of Accra 232 8.4 General concluding remarks 234 9 References 235 9.1 Literature 235 9.2 Other sources 252 10 Appendices 259 10.1 Appendix I Interview guide 259 10.2 Appendix II Selected interview codes and quotations 264

Die Dissertation befasst sich mit der integrierten Bewirtschaftungsplanung von Flusseinzugsgebieten. Die europäische Wasserrahmenrichtlinie (WRRL, 2000/60/EG) und die europäische Hochwasserrichtlinie (HWRL, 2007/60/EG) setzen dafür neue Maßstäbe, indem beide die Mitgliedsstaaten zur Aufstellung einzugsgebietsbezogener Planungsinstrumente verpflichten. In der Arbeit werden eingangs die wesentlichen Prozesse, theoretischen Modelle und Ansatzpunkte für ein integriertes Management von Flusseinzugsgebieten vorgestellt. Die Anforderungen an Bewirtschaftungspläne und Maßnahmenprogramme der WRRL werden den Vorgaben für die Erstellung der Hochwasserrisikomanagementpläne und ihren planerischen Grundlagen gemäß HWRL gegenübergestellt. Potenzielle Synergien und Konflikte zwischen den Zielen und Maßnahmen werden identifiziert. Der Vergleich der Planungsschritte und -methoden zeigt, dass Abstimmungsbedarf zwischen den Planungsinstrumenten des Flussgebiets- und Hochwasserrisikomanagements für sämtliche Planungsschritte besteht, von der Systemanalyse bis zur Maßnahmenumsetzung. Darauf aufbauend wird ein Konzept für eine integrierte Bewirtschaftungsplanung entwickelt. Das Konzept besteht aus einzelnen fachlich-methodischen Planungsmodulen für jeden Planungsschritt. Sie können im Zusammenhang oder für sich genommen zur Abstimmung zwischen den Plänen des Flussgebiets- und Hochwasserrisikomanagements dienen. Abschließend werden die fachlichen und organisatorischinstitutionellen Potenziale des Konzepts diskutiert und weitergehender Forschungsbedarf aufgezeigt. / The thesis addresses the integrated planning of river basins. For this, the European Water Framework Directive (WFD, 2000/60/EC) and the Floods Directive (FD, 2007/60/EC) are setting new benchmarks by committing its member states to set up river basin-wide management plans. At the beginning of the thesis, the most important processes, theoretical models and options of intervention for integrated river basin management are introduced. The requirements for the river basin management plans and the programmes of measures of the WFD will be contrasted with the specifications for the flood risk management plans according to the FD and their fundamental planning documents. Potential synergies and conflicts between the objectives and measures are identified. The comparison of the planning steps and methods show that all planning steps, from the systems analysis to the implementation of measures, require a coordination of the planning instruments of river basin management and flood risk management. Based on these findings, a concept of integrated river basin management planning is developed. The concept is composed of planning modules for each planning step. For the reconciliation between the plans of river basin management and flood risk management, those planning modules can be used in combination or separately. Finally, the technical and institutional potentials of the concept are discussed. Need for further research is identified.

Hochwasserschadensprozesse werden von den drei Komponenten des Hochwasserrisikos bestimmt – der Gefahr, der Exposition und der Vulnerabilität. Dabei bleiben wichtige Einflussgrößen auf die Vulnerabilität, wie die private Hochwasservorsorge aufgrund fehlender quantitativer Informationen unberücksichtigt. Diese Arbeit entwickelt daher eine robuste statistische Methode zur Quantifizierung des Einflusses von privater Hochwasservorsorge auf die Reduzierung der Vulnerabilität von Haushalten bei Hochwasser. Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass in Deutschland private Hochwasservorsorgemaßnahmen den durchschnittlichen Hochwasserschaden pro Wohngebäude um 11.000 bis 15.000 Euro reduzieren. Hochwasserschadensmodelle mit Expertenwissen und datengestützten Methoden sind dabei am besten in der Lage Unterschiede in der Vulnerabilität durch private Hochwasservorsorge zu erkennen. Die über Hochwasserschadenprozesse erhobenen Daten und Modellannahmen sind von Unsicherheit geprägt und so sind auch Schätzungen mit. Die Bayesschen Modelle, die in dieser Arbeit entwickelt und angewandt werden, nutzen Annahmen über Schadensprozesse als Prior und empirische Daten zur Aktualisierung der Wahrscheinlischkeitsverteilungen. Die Modelle bieten Hochwasserschadensschätzungen als Verteilung, welche die Bandbreite der Variabilität der Schadensprozesse und die Unsicherheit der Modellannahmen abbilden. Hochwasserschadensmodelle, hinsichtlich der Prognoseerstellung und Anwendbarkeit. Ins Besondere verbessert die Verwendung einer Beta–Verteilung die Zuverlässigkeit der Modellergebnisse im Vergleich zu den häufig genutzten Gaußschen oder nicht parametrischen Verteilungen. Der hierarchische Bayessche Ansatz schafft eine verbesserte Parametrisierung von Wasserstand-Schadens-Funktionen und ersetzt so die Notwendigkeit empirischer Daten durch regional- und Ereignis-spezifisches Expertenwissen. Auf diese Weise kann die Vorhersage bei einer zeitlich und räumlichen Übertragung des Models verbessert werden. / Flood damage processes are influenced by the three components of flood risk - hazard, exposure and vulnerability. In comparison to hazard and exposure, the vulnerability component, though equally important is often generalized in many flood risk assessments by a simple depth-damage curve. Hence, this thesis developed a robust statistical method to quantify the role of private precaution in reducing flood vulnerability of households. In Germany, the role of private precaution was found to be very significant in reducing flood damage (11 - 15 thousand euros, per household). Also, flood loss models with structure, parameterization and choice of explanatory variables based on expert knowledge and data-driven methods were successful in capturing changes in vulnerability, which makes them suitable for future risk assessments. Due to significant uncertainty in the underlying data and model assumptions, flood loss models always carry uncertainty around their predictions. This thesis develops Bayesian approaches for flood loss modelling using assumptions regarding damage processes as priors and available empirical data as evidence for updating. Thus, these models provide flood loss predictions as a distribution, that potentially accounts for variability in damage processes and uncertainty in model assumptions. The models presented in this thesis are an improvement over the state-of-the-art flood loss models in terms of prediction capability and model applicability. In particular, the choice of the response (Beta) distribution improved the reliability of loss predictions compared to the popular Gaussian or non-parametric distributions; the Hierarchical Bayesian approach resulted in an improved parameterization of the common stage damage functions that replaces empirical data requirements with region and event-specific expert knowledge, thereby, enhancing its predictive capabilities during spatiotemporal transfer.

Climate change results to more extreme and frequent flood events that induce extra risk to flood protection structures such as levees. Thus, estimation of the probability of levee failure is of utmost importance when it comes to structural safety and flood risk assessment. This master thesis focuses on the estimation of the probability of levee failure owing to backward erosion at the foundation of the levee. For the estimation of the probability of failure three breach models of different complexity were developed and site-specified data were used from the Paglia river area and an assessment of the results followed. Besides the breach models, a 2-D hydraulic model was also built where breach scenarios were used to assess the associated flood risk. The results showed that the complexity of the breach model plays significant role to the estimated probability of failure. The simplest model estimated the lowest probability, while the complex the highest. Consequently, the associated to the complex model flood risk was higher than the other two. / Klimatförändringarna är ett allmänt problem som bland annat resulterar i ökad risk för extrema hydrologiska händelser. Av dessa extrema händelser är översvämningar bland de mest förekommande. För att tackla problemen med översvämningsriskerna används skyddsvallar som en av de vanligaste anläggningarna bland olika översvämningsskydd. Vid ett tillräckligt högt flöde kan dock den ökade belastningen på skyddsvallen orsaka att skyddsvallen havererar. En skyddsvall kan haverera på grund av flera fysikaliska fenomen, varav de vanligaste är inre erosion, otillräcklig släntstabilitet samt överspolning. Risken för att en skyddsvall havererar, det vill säga brottrisken, kan beräknas med olika metoder. Sannolikhetsbaserade metoder har nyligen växt fram som ett allt viktigare tillvägagångssätt. Det här examensarbetet handlar om brottsannolikhetsberäkningar för skyddsvallar i syfte att kartlägga översvämningsrisker. Arbetet fokuserar på fenomenet med inre erosion i skyddsvallars grundläggning. Det praktiska exemplet i examensarbetet studerar nybyggda skyddsvallar utmed den italienska floden Paglia längs en flodsträcka om 4,5 km mellan städerna Ciconia och Orvieto Scalo i regionen Umbria i centrala Italien. Ur ett hydrogeologiskt perspektiv karaktäriseras regionen av fint jordmaterial, med inslag av slutna akviferer. Sannolikhetsberäkningar med hjälp av ramverket för Monte Carlo-analys genomfördes för tre olika modeller för att beskriva inre erosion i skyddsvallarna till följd av ett 200-årsflöde. De tre olika numeriska modellerna kännetecknades av olika grad av komplexitet. Den enklaste modellen baserades på en metod av Mazzoleni et al. (2015) och tog endast hänsyn till skyddsvallens porositet. Den mellankomplexa modellen var baserad på metoden ifrån Khilar et al. (1985). Den mest komplexa modellen var tidsberoende och baserades på metoderna från Sellmeijer et al. (2011) och Scheuermann (2005), för att ta hänsyn till de två ömsesidigt beroende fenomenen bakåterosion, så kallad ”piping” och läckage, så kallat ”seepage”, vilka tillsammans ger upphov till inre erosion. Resultaten visar att graden av komplexitet i den numeriska modellen spelar en viktig roll när det gäller brottsannolikheten för skyddsvallars grundläggning. Den enklaste modellen beräknade en lägre brottsannolikhet än de andra två modellerna, och den mest komplexa modellen beräknade högst brottsannolikhet av de tre modellerna. Vidare visar resultaten på att några parametrar har en stor inverkan på brottsannolikheten. Dessa är bland annat partikeldiametern som påverkar skjuvhållfastheten i materialet, permeabiliteten, jordlagrets tjocklek under skyddsvallen samt strömningsvaraktigheten. Parametern strömningsvaraktighet kan endast beaktas i tidsberoende modeller, vilket är en av fördelarna med den mest komplexa modellen i denna studie. Förutom de numeriska brottsannolikhetsmodellerna byggdes en tvådimensionell hydraulisk modell upp för att kartlägga de resulterande översvämningsriskerna. Tre olika haveriscenarier studerades för att representera de tre brottsannolikhetsmodellerna. Dock visade det sig att den enklaste av de tre modellerna beräknade så låg brottsannolikhet att det inte var meningsfullt att studera de resulterande översvämningsriskerna enligt den enklaste brottsannolikhetsmodellen i den hydrauliska modellen. Av de två mer komplexa brottsannolikhetsmodellerna visade det sig att den mest komplexa av de två gav mer omfattande haverier i skyddsvallarna och dessutom haverier i flera av skyddsvallarna. Vidare gav den mest komplexa modellen upphov till högst vattennivåer bakom de havererade skyddsvallarna. Slutligen kan det nämnas att staden Scalo Orvieto är utsatt för en högre översvämningsrisk än staden Ciconia enligt resultaten i denna studie.

Dams and reservoirs with multiple purposes require effective management to fully realize their purposes and maximize efficiency. For instance, a reservoir intended mainly for the purposes of flood control and hydropower generation may result in a system with primary objectives that conflict with each other. This is because higher hydraulic heads are required to achieve the hydropower generation objective while relatively lower reservoir levels are required to fulfill flood control objectives. Protracted imbalances between these two could increase the susceptibility of the system to risks of water shortage or flood, depending on inflow volumes and operational policy effectiveness. The magnitudes of these risks can become even more pronounced when upstream use of the river is unregulated and uncoordinated so that upstream consumptions and releases are arbitrary. As a result, safe operational practices and risk management alternatives must be structured after an improved understanding of historical and anticipated inflows, actual and speculative upstream uses, and the overall hydrology of catchments upstream of the reservoir. One of such systems with an almost yearly occurrence of floods and shortages due to both natural and anthropogenic factors is the dual reservoir system of Kainji and Jebba in Nigeria. To analyze and manage these risks, a methodology that combines a stochastic and deterministic approach was employed. Using methods outlined by Box and Jenkins (1976), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were developed for forecasting Niger river inflows at Kainji reservoir based on twenty-seven-year-long historical inflow data (1970-1996). These were then validated using seven-year inflow records (1997-2003). The model with the best correlation was a seasonal multiplicative ARIMA (2,1,1)x(2,1,2)12 model. Supplementary iv validation of this model was done with discharge rating curves developed for the inlet of the reservoir using in situ inflows and satellite altimetry data. By comparing net inflow volumes with storage deficit, flood and shortage risk factors at the reservoir were determined based on (a) actual inflows, (b) forecasted inflows (up to 2015), and (c) simulated scenarios depicting undefined competitive upstream consumption. Calculated highrisk years matched actual flood years again suggesting the reliability of the model. Monte Carlo simulations were then used to prescribe safe outflows and storage allocations in order to reduce futuristic risk factors. The theoretical safety levels achieved indicated risk factors below threshold values and showed that this methodology is a powerful tool for estimating and managing flood and shortage risks in reservoirs with undefined competitive upstream consumption

This study addresses flood risk assessment in the Catalpa Creek watershed, located in northeast Mississippi, USA. Employing the Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) and the River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), integrated models were developed and calibrated, to predict flood behavior within the watershed. The study conducted flood frequency analyses for return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years and generated flood inundation maps, pinpointing flood-prone areas. Mitigation measures for flood risk management were recommended. The results underscore the effectiveness of the integrated modeling approach for simulating and understanding the complex dynamics of flood events. The research identified critical flood-prone zones, emphasizing the importance of proactive flood risk management. The calibrated hydrological model serves as a valuable tool for stormwater management, water resource planning, and watershed assessment. The study provides insights into flood risk in the Catalpa Creek watershed, offering valuable guidance to regional decision-makers. This study lays the foundation for future investigations in floodplain encroachment, sediment transport, stream restoration, and flood inundation hazard mapping.

Paris has been recurrently affected by floods in the recent years. Such events of heavy precipitations are expected to grow in intensity while being concentrated on shorter periods of time. Subsequently, the risk of floods will increase. The municipality must act accordingly and achieve resilience. Paris is part of the biosphere as an social-ecological system, human activities and the environment are complexely interrelated. The system must become resilient to surprise events to ensure its sustainability. Adaptive governance has been recognized in the field of flood risk management as the means to achieve such resilience. An adaptive governance presents five characteristics: a multilevel feature, public participation, tailor-made solutions, appropriate scale and learning capacity. This thesis aims to analyse how the municipality of Paris incorporates the adaptive approach in its flood risk governance. It also aims to identify the elements it lacks to develop a successful adaptive flood risk governance. Based on the analysis of interviews held with officials of several departments of the municipality and of a selection of official text-based documents several conclusions were drawn. When analysing the multilevel feature of the flood risk governance it appeared that institutional fragmentation was the result of a lack of leadership at the scale of Paris. Regarding public participation, I observed a lack of measures in the governance, both at the basin scale and at the municipality’s scale. However, the municipality does possess the tools to involve citizens in the decision-making process. Tailor-made solutions are duely recommended and implemented, however, multiple constraints hinder their implementation. The governance showed particular interest in the role of the appropriate scale to adress flood risk. The learning capacity is clearly displayed in plans and honed by the municipality. It appears that the adaptive flood risk governance of Paris is in need of a leader that will coordinate the actors, make the strategies coherent and address the constraints to the implementation of tailor-made solutions.

Floods are natural disasters that often have significant socio-economic consequences. Urban areas with uncontrolled urban development, rapid population growth, an unregulated municipal system and an unplanned change in land use belong to the very sensitive areas where floods cause devastating economic and social losses. This study aims to present a reliable GIS multi-criteria methodology for risk zone mapping of flood-prone areas in urban areas. This study also intends to study and investigate the relationship between criteria and field of study. This was carried out with a literature study to investigate and determine the criteria to be used. In this study, the focus is on fluvial flooding. The study area is the centre of Karlstad (17.5 km²) in Värmland County. The study area is interesting because the municipality of Karlstad is trying to increase the number of inhabitants in the city and invest manyresources to build attractive areas close to water, even though those areas were affected by flooding from 2000 to 2001. All data processing was performed in ArcGIS Pro 3.1.0 and FME 2022.2.2 software. All hydrological analyses such as flow direction, accumulation and DEM sinks were performed in System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses (SAGA) 8.0.1 software.  The criteria used in this study are land use, DEM, slope, curvature, flow accumulation and distance from water. The result was then validated with MSB's flood model, previous studies and reports, on the Vänern flood 2000/2001 and insurance claims, because there are no previous flood risk maps in the study area to directly validate the maps generated in this study. In addition, 3D models were generated to facilitate visualization and simulation of the event. The proposed method is based on a combined application of geographic information systems (GIS) and multi-criteria analysis (MKA). AHP was used as a weighting method with the help of five experts from Karlstad University. Flood risk maps were constructed and classified into five classes with flood potential from very low to very high. Respectively 0.5 % (very low), 10 % (low), 28.9 % (moderate), 43 % (high), and 17.6 % (very high). The result of this study shows that 60.6 % of the area is associated with areas of high to very high flood risk. This study is a valuable practical tool for flood risk analysis. / Översvämningar är naturkatastrofer som ofta har betydande socioekonomiska konsekvenser. Stadsområden med okontrollerad stadsutveckling, snabb befolkningstillväxt, ett oreglerat kommunsystem och en oplanerad förändring av markanvändningen tillhör de mycket känsliga områden där översvämningar orsakar förödande ekonomiska och sociala förluster. Denna studie syftar till att presentera en tillförlitlig GIS-multikriteriemetodik för kartläggning av riskzoner av översvämningsbenägna områden i stadsområden.Denna studie ämnar också studera och undersöka sambandet mellan kriterier och studieområde. Detta genomfördes med en litteraturstudie för att undersöka och bestämma de kriterier som ska användas. I denna studie ligger fokus på fluviala översvämningar. Studieområdet är Karlstads centrum (17,5 km²) i Värmlands län. Studieområdet är intressant eftersom Karlstads kommun försöker öka invånarantalet i staden och satsar mycket resurser för att bebygga attraktiva vattennära områden, även om området drabbades av översvämning år 2000 till 2001. All databearbetning utfördes i programvara ArcGIS Pro 3.1.0 och FME 2022.2.2. Alla hydrologiska rasteranalyser såsom flödesriktning, -ackumulering och DEM-gropar utfördes i programvaran System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses (SAGA) 8.0.1. Kriterierna som används i denna studie är: markanvändning, DEM, lutning, krökning, flödesackumulering och avstånd från vatten. Resultatet validerades sedan med MSB:s översvämningsmodell, tidigare studier och rapporter, om Vänern översvämningen 2000/2001 och försäkringsskador därför att det inte finns några tidigare översvämningsriskkartor i studieområdet för att direkt validera de i denna studie genererade kartorna. Därutöver genererades 3D-modeller för att underlätta visualisering och simulering av händelsen. Den föreslagna metoden är baserad på en kombinerad tillämpning av geografiska informationssystem (GIS) och multikriterieanalys (MKA). AHP användes som viktningsmetod med hjälp av fem experter från Karlstads universitet. Översvämningsriskkartor konstruerades och klassificerades i fem klasser med översvämningspotential från mycket låg till mycket hög. Respektive 0,5 % (väldigt låg), 10 % (låg), 28,9 % (måttlig), 43 % (hög), och 17,6 % (väldigt hög). Resultatet av denna studie visar att 60,6 % av området är förknippade med områden med hög till väldigt hög översvämningsrisk. Denna studie är ett värdefullt praktiskt verktyg för analys av översvämningsrisker.