Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-06-17T17:15:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 alexsanderdeoliveira.pdf: 12218792 bytes, checksum: 1c1d77ecefec5da6018a0cb065c39b7f (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-07-13T14:39:43Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 alexsanderdeoliveira.pdf: 12218792 bytes, checksum: 1c1d77ecefec5da6018a0cb065c39b7f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-13T14:39:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 alexsanderdeoliveira.pdf: 12218792 bytes, checksum: 1c1d77ecefec5da6018a0cb065c39b7f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-04-14 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O crescimento populacional impulsiona a expansão urbana das cidades. A geomorfologia aplicada torna-se indispensável, à medida que o homem se apropria do relevo para construir sua moradia e reproduzir a vida, pois ocorrem alterações nos sistemas ambientais que constituem a base onde a sociedade se projeta. O urbano precisa ser entendido como um todo complexo, sobre o qual ocorrem processos que mudam as formas. Também acontecem mudanças nas formas que, alteram os processos. Qualquer tipo de alteração promovida pelos assentamentos urbanos, por mais sutil que seja, poderá provocar variações que se perpetuam no tempo e no espaço, muitas vezes irreversíveis e danosas às sociedades. O objetivo principal desse trabalho constitui-se em estudar a dinâmica do sistema geomorfológico pelo prisma da interpretação Ecodinâmica proposta por Tricart (1977). Objetiva-se também determinar a fragilidade ambiental a partir da proposta metodológica de Ross (1994), utilizando o conceito de Unidades Ecodinâmicas. Ao se estabelecer a fragilidade ambiental é possível avaliar as áreas nas quais poderão surgir quadros mais acentuados de instabilidade frente a projeção da sociedade sobre o meio. Assim, pode-se subsidiar ações de planejamento que restrinjam ou (re)direcionem o uso e ocupação da terra, de forma a prevenir ou minimizar o surgimento de problemas relacionados à qualidade ambiental. O estudo foi aplicado em uma área denominada de Setor Norte do Município de Juiz de Fora. Este setor foi selecionado por conter variados tipos de uso da terra e cobertura vegetal, com alguns ambientes naturais e outros antrópicos de uso urbano e rural. Como aporte foram utilizados dados secundários fruto de trabalho em gabinete e campo, para a caracterização de fatores primordiais: geologia, relevo (compartimentação, dissecação vertical, declividade), solos, uso da terra/cobertura vegetal e clima. / Population growth drives urban sprawl of cities. The geomorphology applied becomes indispensable, as the man appropriates relief to build your house and reproduce life, because there are changes in environmental systems that form the basis on which society projects. The city to be understood as a complex whole, on which there are processes that change the shapes. Also take place changes in ways that alter the processes. Any type of change promoted by urban settlements, however subtle it may be, may cause variations that are perpetuated in time and space, often irreversible and damaging to companies. The main objective of this work is constituted to study the dynamics of geomorphological system for the interpretation of the prism ecodynamic proposed by Tricart (1977). Lens will also determine the environmental fragility from the methodological proposal of Ross (1994), using the concept of Ecodinâmicas units. By establishing the environmental fragility it is possible to assess the areas which may appear more pronounced frames facing instability to the projection of society on the environment. So you can support planning actions that restrict or (re) to target the use and occupation of land in order to prevent or minimize the emergence of the environmental quality problems. The study was applied to an area called North Juiz de Fora Municipality Sector. This sector was selected because it contains different types of land use and vegetation cover, with some natural environments and other man-made urban and rural use. As input were used secondary data result of work in the office and field, for the characterization of key factors: geology, relief (compartmentalization, vertical dissection, slope), soils, land use / land cover and climate.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2018-09-05T17:57:24Z No. of bitstreams: 0 / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2018-09-06T11:32:55Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-06T11:32:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2018-08-16 / PROQUALI (UFJF) / A fragilidade é uma síndrome biológica frequentemente associada a um risco aumentado de quedas. As quedas desencadeiam condições psicológicas, vinculadas ao componente cognitivo do medo de cair, comumente mensurado por meio do senso de autoeficácia. A redução da autoeficácia para evitar quedas associa-se a restrição de atividades e declínio funcional. Assim, o medo de cair mediado pela restrição de atividades desencadeia uma relação cíclica negativa em direção à fragilidade em idosos. Portanto, o objetivo deste estudo foi identificar a prevalência de fragilidade e os fatores associados em idosos no município de Belo Horizonte; determinar a prevalência nacional de quedas e fatores associados em idosos com e sem condições de fragilidade e estabelecer o ponto de corte no escore de autoeficácia para evitar quedas que melhor diferencie idosos caidores de não caidores e os fatores associados a este ponto de corte em indivíduos com ou sem condições de fragilidade. Estudo de base populacional, que avaliou 8608 idosos comunitários brasileiros com idade ≥ 65 anos. O fenótipo de fragilidade, quedas, autoeficácia relacionada às quedas, aspectos clínicos, funcionais, sócio demográficos, econômicos e a utilização de serviços de saúde foram avaliados. Nas análises multivariadas ajustaram-se modelos de regressão ordinais e de Poisson. Para análise de sensibilidade e especificidade empregou-se a curva ROC. Foram utilizados Intervalos de Confiança de 95% (IC 95%) e α=0,05. Os resultados foram apresentados em três estudos. No primeiro, foi identificada na cidade de Belo Horizonte a prevalência de pré-fragilidade de 46,3% e de fragilidade de 8,7%. Os idosos pré-frágeis e frágeis apresentaram respectivamente maiores e crescentes razão de chances para dependência em atividades instrumentais de vida diária (AIVD); restrição em atividades avançadas de vida diária; utilização de dispositivos auxiliares da marcha; comorbidades; quedas; sintomas depressivos; menor auto eficacia para quedas; hospitalização e idade avançada. No segundo estudo foi observado 11,3% de idosos frágeis, 51,6% de pré-frágeis e 36,9% de não frágeis. A prevalência nacional de quedas e quedas recorrentes em idosos foi de 27,9% e 14,1% e nos idosos frágeis foi de 41,7% e 26,3%. Nos idosos frágeis os fatores associados a um maior número de quedas foram: incontinência fecal, déficit de memória, déficit auditivo, sintomas depressivos, maior número de consultas médicas, ausência de companheiro e não ser proprietário da residência. No terceiro estudo foi identificado o valor da autoeficácia que melhor diferenciou a amostra quanto à ocorrência de quedas igual a ≥23 pontos na FES-I. Foram associados simultaneamente aos idosos com e sem condições de fragilidade dependência em AIVD; déficit de memória; avaliação negativa de saúde; baixa satisfação com a vida e sexo feminino. A presença de comorbidades foi a única condição simultaneamente associada a idosos pré-frágeis e não frágeis. Somente os idosos pré-frágeis apresentaram associação de ≥23 pontos com condições socioeconômicas e número de consultas médicas. Nos idosos não frágeis o ponto de corte autoeficácia foi associado isoladamente a sintomas depressivos e consultas domiciliares. Os resultados identificaram elevados percentuais de fragilidade associados a condições adversas de saúde, assim como elevada prevalência de quedas em idosos frágeis / Frailty is a biological syndrome often associated with an increased risk of falling. Falls induce psychological conditions, commonly translated by the fear of falling. The cognitive component of fear of falling is often measured by means of the sense of self-efficacy. Reduction of self-efficacy to prevent falls is associated with activity restriction and subsequent functional decline. Thus, the fear of falling mediated by activity restriction triggers a cyclical relationship or a negative toward frailty in elderly spiral. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify the prevalence of frailty and associated factors among elderly in the city of Belo Horizonte; determine the national prevalence of falls and associated factors in elderly patients with and without conditions of fragility and establish a cutoff score for self-efficacy to prevent falls that best differentiate elderly fallers and non-fallers of the factors associated with this cutoff point in individuals with or without conditions of fragility. Study populationbased evaluated 8608 community-dwelling elderly Brazilians aged ≥ 65 years. The phenotype of frailty, falls, self-efficacy related to falls, clinical, functional, sociodemographic, economic aspects and use of health services were evaluated. In multivariate analyzes set of ordinal regression models and Poisson. For analysis of sensitivity and specificity we used the ROC curve. Confidence intervals of 95 % (95 % CI) and α = 0.05 were used. The results were presented in three studies. In the first, was identified in the city of Belo Horizonte the prevalence of pre-frailty of 46.3 % and 8.7% of frailty. The pre-frail and frail, respectively, showed higher and increasing odds ratio for dependency in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL); restrictions on advanced activities of daily living, use of walking aids, comorbidities, falls, depressive symptoms, lower self-efficacy for falls, hospitalization and advanced age. In the second study it was found 11.3% of frail elderly, 51.6 % pre-frail and non-frail 36.9%. The national prevalence of falls and recurrent falls in the elderly was 27.9 % and 14.1% and the frail elderly was 41.7% and 26.3%. In frail elderly factors associated with a larger number of falls were: fecal incontinence, memory deficits, hearing impairment, depressive symptoms, more medical visits, being single and not the owner of the residence. In the third study, the value of self-efficacy that best differentiates the sample according to the occurrence of falls was identified as ≥ 23 points in FES-I. IADL dependence, memory deficit, negative rated health, lower life satisfaction and being female were simultaneously associated in the elderly with and without conditions of fragility. The presence of comorbidities was the only factor simultaneously associated with pre-frail and not-frail elderly. Only the pre-frail elderly showed association of ≥ 23 points with socioeconomic conditions and number of medical visits. In non-frail elderly the point of cutoff of self-efficacy was singly associated with depressive symptoms and home visits. The results showed high rates of frailty associated with adverse health conditions, as well as high prevalence of falls in frail elderly.

Submitted by Jefferson Bertolai (jdonizeti@fgvmail.br) on 2012-12-10T19:34:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 thesis3.pdf: 652761 bytes, checksum: 8b49645ceaf7c2b51d6842e8637760cf (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2013-02-27T12:48:53Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 thesis3.pdf: 652761 bytes, checksum: 8b49645ceaf7c2b51d6842e8637760cf (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-02-27T12:49:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 thesis3.pdf: 652761 bytes, checksum: 8b49645ceaf7c2b51d6842e8637760cf (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-08-24 / This thesis is dedicated to the study of both financial instability and dynamics in monetary theory. It is shown that bank runs are costless prevented in the standard model of banking theory when population is not small. An extension is proposed where aggregate uncertainty is more severe and fi nancial stability cost is relevant. Finally, transitions in the distribution of money are shown to be optimal in an economy where exchanges opportunities are scarce and heterogeneous. In particular, optimality of inflation depends on dynamic incentives provided by such transitions. Chapter 1 establishes the costless result for large economies by studying the e ffects of population size in the Peck-Shell analysis of bank runs. In chapter 2, dynamics optimality is studied in Kiyotaki-Wright monetary model when society is able to implement a inflationary policy. Despite adopting the mechanism design approach, this chapter parallels Sargent and Wallace (1981) analysis in highlighting dynamic incentives to the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies. Chapter 3 returns to the issue of financial stability by quantifying the costs involved in optimally designing a run-proof banking sector and by proposing an alternative information structure which allows for insolvent banks. Former analysis shows that optimal stability scheme features high long term interest rates, and the latter that imperfect monitoring can lead to bank runs with insolvency. / Esta tese de Doutorado é dedicada ao estudo de instabilidade financeira e dinâmica em Teoria Monet ária. E demonstrado que corridas banc árias são eliminadas sem custos no modelo padrão de teoria banc ária quando a popula ção não é pequena. É proposta uma extensão em que incerteza agregada é mais severa e o custo da estabilidade financeira é relevante. Finalmente, estabelece-se otimalidade de transições na distribui ção de moeda em economias em que oportunidades de trocas são escassas e heterogêneas. Em particular, otimalidade da inflação depende dos incentivos dinâmicos proporcionados por tais transi ções. O capí tulo 1 estabelece o resultado de estabilidade sem custos para economias grandes ao estudar os efeitos do tamanho populacional na an álise de corridas banc árias de Peck & Shell. No capí tulo 2, otimalidade de dinâmica é estudada no modelo de monet ário de Kiyotaki & Wright quando a sociedade é capaz de implementar uma polí tica inflacion ária. Apesar de adotar a abordagem de desenho de mecanismos, este capí tulo faz um paralelo com a an álise de Sargent & Wallace (1981) ao destacar efeitos de incentivos dinâmicos sobre a interação entre as polí ticas monet ária e fiscal. O cap ítulo 3 retoma o tema de estabilidade fi nanceira ao quanti car os custos envolvidos no desenho ótimo de um setor bancário à prova de corridas e ao propor uma estrutura informacional alternativa que possibilita bancos insolventes. A primeira an álise mostra que o esquema de estabilidade ótima exibe altas taxas de juros de longo prazo e a segunda que monitoramento imperfeito pode levar a corridas bancárias com insolvência.

Nous analysons l'incidence du niveau de fonds propres sur la vulnérabilité des banques aux phénomènes de ruée. Nous commençons par déterminer un cadre théorique dans lequel la banque capitalisée permet une allocation désirable des ressources et des risques. Nous agrégeons ensuite les modèles de ruée auto-réalisatrice et de ruée fondamentale en intégrant les fonds propres dans la représentation de l'intermédiaire financier. Le jeu des retraits est étudié dans un cadre contractuel général afin de mettre en évidence les différentes configurations possibles. Les outils issus de la théorie des jeux globaux sont utilisés pour résoudre le problème de coordination lorsque le jeu post-contractuel admet des équilibres multiples. Cela permet enfin de déterminer à rebours le niveau optimal de vulnérabilité bancaire compte tenu de la probabilité de ruée associée au niveau de solvabilité sélectionné. / We analyse the effects of bank equity on their vulnerability to runs. We first define a theoretical framework in which a capitalized financial intermediary is an efficient solution to risk and resource allocation. We then develop a bank-run model and analyse how both self-fulfilling and fundamental-based runs affect a capitalized financial intermediary. We exhibit different types of feasible configurations of the post-deposit game equilibria. We use the results of global game theory to select a particular equilibrium in cases when coordination problems result in multiple equilibria. Finally, the optimal banking fragility is determined by backward induction while taking into account the run probability associated to the selected solvency.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The rapid growth of urban centers and the increase in deforested areas and agricultural activities, coupled with a lack of proper management of water resources has generated large amounts of waste carried to water bodies, usually beyond their capacity of assimilation. So, to assist the efforts of monitoring, control, supervision and development of territorial planning for environmental management body, one of the main tools used is the map of environmental fragility. However, it is necessary to assess how much uncertainty is implicit in applying this type of method. In this context, the objective of this study is to analyze the consistency of the methodological approach applied in the project FRAG-RIO, related for the contamination of water for the basin under study. For this, was compared the hierarchy of river reaches in a map of environmental fragilities of water contamination, with the hierarchy of river reaches based on the sampling stations for water quality of FEPAM/RS. The study area is the river basin Santa Maria, located on the southwestern border of Rio Grande do Sul, a predominantly rural watershed, characterized by extensive livestock and rice fields. For the development of methodology, in the stations of quality of FEPAM/RS were obtained observed data for concentration of the following parameters: fecal coliform, BOD, COD, ortho phosphate, total phosphorus, manganese, total Kjeldahl nitrogen and total solids. These data were transformed into loads, and then ranked. To construct the map of fragilities were considered three variables: the population organic load remaining, organic load of breeding and agriculture index. The final map of fragilities varies from 0 to 255, where smaller values indicate low fragility, while higher values represent the greatest fragility. The fragilities were analyzed in relation to the quality stations of FEPAM/RS in two ways: considering all contributing drainage area to the station, and considering only the incremental area of the station. The results of these tests were ranked and compared with the ranking of each parameter of quality stations. For this, the correlation between the hierarchies was analyzed using the Spearman test. The main result, it was observed that the analysis of environmental fragility relating to the aspect of water contamination is presented as a useful tool to support decision making in basins with a lack of data, particularly when considering the quality parameters of BOD and nitrogen. These parameters had the highest correlations with the hierarchy generated by the sum of the fragilities of all contributing drainage area to the quality station , with a determination coefficient of 59%. / O crescimento acelerado dos centros urbanos e o aumento de áreas desmatadas e atividades agropecuárias, aliados a falta de um gerenciamento adequado dos recursos hídricos, tem gerado quantidades elevadas de efluentes carreados para os corpos hídricos, normalmente além de sua capacidade de assimilação. Assim, para auxílio às ações de monitoramento, controle, fiscalização e elaboração do planejamento territorial ambiental pelo órgão gestor, uma das principais ferramentas utilizadas é o mapa de fragilidade ambiental. No entanto, é necessário avaliar qual a quantidade de incerteza está implícita ao se aplicar este tipo de método. Neste contexto, o objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a consistência da abordagem metodológica aplicada no projeto FRAG-RIO, referente ao aspecto contaminação das águas, para a bacia em estudo. Para isso, foi comparada a hierarquização de trechos de rios de um mapa de fragilidades ambientais quanto ao aspecto contaminação das águas, com a hierarquização de trechos de rios baseada nas estações de amostragem de qualidade da água da FEPAM/RS. A área de estudo corresponde à bacia hidrográfica do rio Santa Maria, situada na fronteira sudoeste do Rio Grande do Sul, sendo uma bacia predominantemente rural, caracterizada pela pecuária extensiva e lavouras de arroz. Para o desenvolvimento da metodologia, nas estações de qualidade da FEPAM/RS foram obtidos dados observados de concentração dos seguintes parâmetros: coliformes termotolerantes, DBO, DQO, fosfato orto, fósforo total, manganês, nitrogênio total Kjeldahl e sólidos totais. Estes dados foram transformados em cargas, e então hierarquizados. Para a construção do mapa de fragilidades foram consideradas três variáveis: carga orgânica remanescente das populações, carga orgânica das criações e índice agrícola. O mapa final de fragilidades varia de 0 a 255, sendo que valores menores significam baixa fragilidade, enquanto valores maiores representam as maiores fragilidades. As fragilidades foram analisadas em relação às estações de qualidade da FEPAM/RS de duas formas: considerando toda área contribuinte à estação, e considerando apenas a área incremental à estação. Os resultados obtidos destas análises foram hierarquizados, e comparados com a hierarquização de cada parâmetro das estações de qualidade. Para isso, foi analisada a correlação entre as hierarquizações por meio do teste de Spearman. Como principal resultado, observou-se que a análise de fragilidades ambientais referente ao aspecto contaminação das águas se apresentou como uma ferramenta útil para subsidiar à tomada de decisões em bacias com carência de dados, em especial ao analisar os parâmetros de qualidade DBO e nitrogênio. Estes parâmetros obtiveram as maiores correlações com a hierarquia gerada pela soma das fragilidades de toda área contribuinte à estação de qualidade, apresentando um coeficiente de determinação de 59%.

Over the past decades, the degradation of natural resources is a constant reality in the cities of Brazil and has been creating environmental and social concern. Geomorphological studies help to understand these environmental problems, since it deals with the interaction of complex mechanisms that modify the surface of the globe. And the study of natural environmental fragility, exacerbated by human activities in urban environments, should be the subject of research aimed at the urban sprawl. The objective of this research is to diagnose the potential and emerging environmental fragility of the Northeast Administrative Region of the Municipality of Santa Maria-RS, which corresponds to the transition zone between the Southern Rio Grande Peripheral Depression and the Plateau of the Paraná Basin, with high altimetric amplitude and steep slopes. The methodology used is based on Ross (1994), in which environmental fragility is defined by the concepts of Ecodynamic Units (Tricart, 1977), grouped in Unstable Ecodynamic Units and Stable Ecodynamic Units, with the establishment of degrees of fragility rated from very low, for the least degree, to very high for the greatest degree. The Potential Environmental Fragility Chart resulted from the overlay of Information Planes (IPs) of the Clinographic, Morphological, Geologic and Soils Charts. The Chart of Emerging Environmental fragility is the result of the overlay of IPs Potential Environmental Fragility Chart with the Land Use and Land Cover Charts. These charts show the different degrees of fragility that the environment has on the basis of their genetic and anthropic characteristics. In the Potential Environmental Fragility Chart, it was found that 42.9% of the present environmental fragility rated high to very high. These vulnerabilities occur due to the physical properties of places with the large terrain slopes, combined with low soil development and hill morphology. The analysis of human intervention appears that the environmental fragility increases considerably. The Chart of Emerging Environmental Fragility reveals that 79.2% of the study area are considered fragile medium to very high, and 48.6% have a high fragility. The areas of greatest fragility are those that are least protected, or those where there have been much modification of the natural environment resulting from human actions. In this regard, some recommendations were proposed in order to modify land use so that the Northeast Administrative Region can remain in environmental balance. And finally, it should be noted that this research lends itself as an aid to future work that may be developed in the area, especially those focused on environmental preservation. / Ao longo das últimas décadas, vem se verificando que a degradação dos recursos naturais é uma realidade constante nas cidades do Brasil e vem desencadeando problemas ambientais e sociais preocupantes. Os estudos geomorfológicos auxiliam na compreensão destes problemas ambientais, uma vez que se ocupa da interação de mecanismos complexos que modificam a superfície do globo. O estudo da fragilidade ambiental natural, acentuada pelas ações antrópicas, em ambientes urbanos, deve ser objeto de pesquisas que visem à expansão urbana. Assim, o objetivo principal desta pesquisa é realizar o diagnóstico da fragilidade ambiental potencial e emergente da Região Administrativa Nordeste da sede do município de Santa Maria-RS, que corresponde à zona de transição entre a Depressão Periférica Sul-rio-grandense e o Planalto da Bacia do Paraná, com elevada amplitude altimétrica e declividades acentuadas. A metodologia utilizada tem como base Ross (1994), que define fragilidade ambiental a partir dos conceitos de Unidades Ecodinâmicas (Tricart, 1977), agrupadas em Unidades Ecodinâmicas Instáveis e Unidades Ecodinâmicas Estáveis, com o estabelecimento de graus de fragilidade, desde o muito fraco, para o menor grau, até o muito forte para o maior grau. A Carta de Fragilidade Ambiental Potencial resultou da sobreposição dos Planos de Informações (PIs) das cartas Clinográfica, Morfológica, Geológica e de Solos. A Carta de Fragilidade Ambiental Emergente é o resultado da sobreposição dos PIs da Carta de Fragilidade Ambiental Potencial e da Carta de Uso da Terra e Cobertura Vegetal. Estas cartas expressam os diferentes graus de fragilidade que o ambiente possui em função de suas características genéticas e antrópicas. Na Carta de Fragilidade Ambiental Potencial foi constatado que 42,9% da área apresentam fragilidade ambiental forte a muito forte. Estas fragilidades apresentam-se, em função das propriedades físicas, em locais com as maiores declividades do terreno, associado a solos pouco desenvolvidos e à morfologia de morros. No momento em que se analisa a intervenção humana constata-se que a fragilidade ambiental aumenta, consideravelmente. A Carta de Fragilidade Ambiental Emergente revela que 79,2% da área de estudo são consideradas de fragilidade entre média e muito forte, sendo que 48,6% apresentam fragilidade forte. As áreas de maior fragilidade são as que estão menos protegidas, ou seja, as áreas em que já houve intensa modificação do ambiente natural resultante das ações humanas. Nesse sentido, algumas recomendações foram propostas no intuito de adequar o uso da terra para que a R. A. Nordeste possa manter-se em equilíbrio ambiental. E, por fim, cabe ressaltar que essa pesquisa presta-se como subsídio a trabalhos futuros que venham a ser desenvolvidos na área, em especial aqueles voltados à preservação ambiental.

Tunnels, culverts, and subway stations are the main parts of an integrated infrastructure system. Most of them are constructed by the cut-and-cover method at shallow depths (mainly lower than 30 m) of soil deposits, where large-scale seismic ground deformation can occur with lower stiffness and strength of the soil. Therefore, the transverse racking deformation (one of the major seismic ground deformation) due to soil shear deformations should be included in the seismic design of underground structures using cost- and time-efficient methods that can achieve robustness of design and are easily understood by engineers. This paper aims to develop a simplified but comprehensive approach relating to vulnerability assessment in the form of fragility curves on a shallow two-story reinforced concrete underground box structure constructed in a highly-weathered soil. In addition, a comparison of the results of earthquakes per peak ground acceleration (PGA) is conducted to determine the effective and appropriate number for cost- and time-benefit analysis. The ground response acceleration method for buried structures (GRAMBS) is used to analyze the behavior of the structure subjected to transverse seismic loading under quasi-static conditions. Furthermore, the damage states that indicate the exceedance level of the structural strength capacity are described by the results of nonlinear static analyses (or so-called pushover analyses). The Latin hypercube sampling technique is employed to consider the uncertainties associated with the material properties and concrete cover owing to the variation in construction conditions. Finally, a large number of artificial ground shakings satisfying the design spectrum are generated in order to develop the seismic fragility curves based on the defined damage states. It is worth noting that the number of ground motions per PGA, which is equal to or larger than 20, is a reasonable value to perform a structural analysis that produces satisfactory fragility curves.

Cette thèse parle de l'impact des comportements spéculatifs sur l'économie réelle. Les comportements spéculatifs peuvent avoir deux origines: les développements positifs de l'économie réelle et les perspectives économiques, les marchés financiers comme par exemple les marchés actions. Nous analyserons les deux origines. Par conséquent, nous allons mettre en ouvre des comportements réalistes dans un contexte évolutif en utilisant l’hétérogénéité grandissante, pour évaluer l'impact des comportements spéculatifs. En se basant sur la bulle dotcom, nous allons nous concentrer sur l'avancement technologique comme possible facteur de l'optimisme grandissant. Dans la première partie de cette thèse nous allons présenter les résultats obtenus via un modèle déterminé par des contraintes de financement, et utilisant les prix des actions. Nous allons nous concentrer sur 3 types de répercussions assez connues: l'information donnée par le marché de l'action en vue de déterminer la solvabilité, la valeur de marché du titre en vue de déterminer la probabilité de banqueroute, et la partie de la rémunération du management qui est adossée sur la performance. La seconde partie de la thèse parlera les contraintes de financement dans un cadre évolutif et soulignera les déterminants de l'offre de crédit qui impactent la fréquence des innovations. Ces déterminants sont basés sur les données de marché et concernent des aspects comportementaux. La troisième partie fournit en détail le comportement des banques et de deux secteurs industriels qui se battent pour le crédit. La troisième partie est donc un approfondissement de la seconde. / This dissertation deals with the impact of speculative behaviour on output patterns of the real economy. The impact may be twofold. Speculative behaviour occurs due to positive developments at the real economy and optimistic outlooks. Also, speculative behaviour may occur at other markets, like the stock market. We address both, a spill-over effect and the build up of speculation due to economic activity. Therefore, we implement realistic behaviour in an evolutionary framework and use emerging heterogeneity for the impact assessment. lnspired by the dotcom-bubble we focus on technological advancement as possible factor of growing optimism. ln the first part of this thesis we introduce feedback from stock prices into a model of economic growth determined by financing constraints. We focus on three known feedback channels: stock market information for the assessment of creditworthiness, stock market value as determinant in determining bankruptcy of a firm and performance based compensation of the firm management. The second part introduces financing constraints into an evolutionary framework and tackles determinants of credit supply for their impact on the occurrence of innovation. Those determinants are market based and also behavioural in nature. The third part provides a more detailed bank behaviour and two industrial sectors competing for credit. Therefore, the third part is a refinement of the second one.

Introducción. El vivir en grandes alturas genera que los pobladores se adapten biológica y socialmente al ambiente. El objetivo fue determinar la diferencia del rendimiento físico (RF) en poblaciones rurales a nivel del mar y a gran altitud. Material y métodos. Estudio transversal en comunidades rurales de Áncash, Perú, ubicadas a 3345 m s.n.m. y 6 m s.n.m. Se midió RF según el Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) y otros factores asociados. Se calculó las razones de prevalencia ajustadas (RPa). Resultados. Se evaluó a 130 adultos mayores en la comunidad de gran altitud y 129 en la costa, la mediana de la edad fue 71,4 y 55,6 % fueron mujeres. El bajo rendimiento físico (SPPB ≤ 6) fue de 10,0% a gran altitud y 19,4% en la costa (p<0,05). Los factores asociados con un bajo rendimiento físico fueron ser de costa (RPa: 2,10; IC95%: 1,02-4,33), tener una percepción de mala salud (RPa: 2,48; IC95%: 1,21-5,08), tener hipertensión arterial (RPa: 1,73; IC95%: 1,01-2,98), tener mayor edad (RPa: 1,04; IC95%: 1,01-1,07), mientras que ser agricultor (RPa: 0,49; IC95%: 0,25-0,97), y ser independiente (RPa: 0,37; IC95%: 0,20- ,072) serían factores protectores. Asimismo, se encontró que los pobladores de la costa tienen 0,86 puntos menos en el SPPB total que los de gran altitud (p=0,004). Conclusiones. Existe asociación entre residir en altura y RF en adultos mayores. La prevalencia de bajo RF en los adultos mayores de zonas rurales a nivel del mar es dos veces mayor en comparación a los que viven en comunidades rurales de altura. / Introduction. Living in high altitudes mandates that villagers adapt biologically and socially to the environment. The objective of this study was to determine the difference in physical performance (PP) in rural populations at sea level and at high altitude. Material and methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted in rural communities in Ancash, Peru, located at 3345 meters above sea level (m.a.s.l.) and also in communities located in coastal areas at 6 m.a.s.l. PP was measured by the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) and other associated factors. Adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) were calculated. Results. 130 older adults were assessed in the high altitude communities and 129 on the coast. The median age was 71.4 and 55.6% were female. Low physical performance (SPPB ≤ 6) was 10.0% at high altitude and 19.4% on the coast (p <0.05). Factors associated with low physical performance were residing at the coast (aPR: 2.10, 95% CI 1.02 to 4.33), self-reported poor health (aPR: 2.48, 95% CI 1.21 -5.08), hypertension (aPR: 1.73, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.98), and age (aPR: 1.04, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.07), while being a farmer (aPR: 0.49, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.97), and being independent (aPR: 0.37, 95% CI 0,20-, 072) were found to be protective factors. We also found that the inhabitants of the coast have on average a 0.86 point lower total SPPB than the high altitude ones (p = 0.004). Conclusions. There is an association between altitude of residence and PP in older adults. The prevalence of low PP in older adults in rural areas at sea level is twice as high compared to those living in high altitude rural communities.

Unreinforced masonry (URM) structures have shown tobe susceptible to significant damage during strong earthquakes. Vulnerability assessment of URM buildings is needed so that appropriate mitigation strategies can be implemented. The existing Canadian practice consists of rapid seismic screening of buildings to assign priorities for further and more refined assessments, followed by refined analysis of individual critical buildings. The current seismic screening procedure, from 1992, is based on qualitative observations of seismic vulnerability, enabling the assignment of seismic priority indices, quantified on the basis of expert opinion and experience. More refined tools are needed for seismic vulnerability assessment of URM buildings in Canada, based on the current Canadian seismic hazard values. The objective of the research project is to fulfill these needs by developing fragility curves that provide a probabilistic assessment of different levels of building performance under different intensities ofeastern and western seismicity. Using an inventory of over 50,000 structures, a seismic assessment of typical low-rise and mid-rise URM structures located in eastern and western Canada was carried out. The required analyses were done using applied element method software which effectively modeled the in-plane and out-of-plane behaviour of masonry walls. Using incremental dynamic analysis, fragility curves were developed to reflect the capacity of URM structures with a wide variety of selected structural and ground motion parameters. The results were verified against available fragility information in the literature. They show the significance of selected parameters, while providing effective tools for seismic vulnerability assessment of URM buildings in eastern and western Canada.