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京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第20784号 / 経博第556号 / 新制||経||282(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 矢野 誠, 教授 島本 哲朗, 教授 新後閑 禎 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

This thesis aims to explore the challenges of ICT industries to have access to financial sources in Turkey. The specific subject of analysis is the Turkish software industry. First, it is identified that the global course of the science and technology policies and economic developments are intertwined and they are the major determinants of the current situation of high-tech sectors and their finance all over the world. The importance of finance is based on its association with the innovativeness of high-tech firms. The financial commitment is crucial for firms to sustain innovative activities before revenue generation. Today there is a widely used mainstream model of financial growth cycle defining the sources of finance and the specific needs of high-tech firms along their growth paths. Second, the historical course of finance in Turkey are analyzed and milestones of science and technology policies as well as the development of ICT industries are briefly discussed in order to exhibit the underlying structure of the present issues of high-tech sectors&rsquo / finance in Turkey. Later, the growth cycle model is implemented for Turkey to analyze the potential of financial sources for Turkish software firms with relevant quantitative data. It is seen that the interest of available financial sources towards high-tech sectors is limited and unconcerned. In addition, an inquiry for the finance of the software industry is also done through the analysis of interviews performed with managers of software firms and several funding organizations. Instabilities and uncertainties of the Turkish economy, underdevelopment of a national strategy on software and the lack of interest of available financial sources towards software industry are the major handicaps for the growth of software firms and the industry as a whole. A selective national industrial strategy on software is crucial for the true allocation of financial resources towards software firms.

Bakgrund och problem: Gasellföretag kännetecknas av att vara unga och snabbväxande verksamheter. I takt med dess tillväxt kan interna såväl som externa utmaningar uppkomma, vilket skapar ett behov av att kontrollera den snabbväxande organisationen. Som en konsekvens av detta ökar även behovet av en adekvat ekonomistyrning, vilken kan bistå med stöd för att hantera en stigande komplexitet. Med utgångspunkt i tidigare forskning problematiseras området, vilket berör frågor som hur användningen av ekonomistyrningen ser ut i gasellföretag samt hur och varför tillämpningen förändras i takt med tillväxt.  Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att redogöra för hur ekonomistyrningen ser ut i gasellföretag samt hur och varför användningen förändras under dess tillväxt.Metod: Med hänsyn till studiens syfte och forskningsfrågor har en kvalitativ forskningsstrategi tillämpats med ett abduktivt angreppssätt. En flerfallsstudie har genomförts där semistrukturerade intervjuer tillsammans med dokumentgranskning utgjort underlag för empirisk insamling.  Slutsats: Resultatet indikerar att ekonomistyrning i gasellföretag är informell, men där formella inslag genomsyras. Trots att tillämpning av ekonomistyrning kan åtskiljas inom gasellföretag har verktyg likt budget, prestationsmått, belöningssystem samt strategisk planering synliggjorts där anpassning sker utefter behov. Hur ekonomistyrningen förändras kan förklaras med utgångspunkt i tre centrala trender vilka benämns som formalisering, ekonomifiering och specialisering. Dessa trender utgör processer och präglar ett gasellföretags tillämpning och utveckling av ekonomistyrning under dess tillväxt. Orsaken bakom varför ekonomistyrningen kräver förändring kan synliggöras utifrån en ökad intern komplexitet vilken skapar ett behov av en tydligare styrning samt adekvata kontrollverktyg. / Background and problem: Gazelle companies are characterized by being young and fast- growing businesses. As they grow, internal as well as external challenges can arise which increases the need for control. As a consequence, the necessity for adequate management accounting increases which can help to deal with an arising complexity. Based on previous research, this issue is problematized with concern to how the use of management accounting is designed in gazelle companies but also how and why the application changes during growth. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to increase the knowledge with regards to how management accounting is designed in gazelle companies but also how and why it changes during growth.  Method: With regard to the study’s purpose and research questions, a qualitative research strategy has been applied with an abductive approach. A multiple-case study has been conducted where semi-structured interviews together with document review formed the basis of the empirical data.  Conclusion: The results implicate that management accounting in gazelle companies is informal, but where formal elements are permeated. Although the application can differ, tools such as budget, performance measures, reward systems and strategic planning are usually applied, where adaptation occurs according to the needs of the company. How the management accounting is changing can be explained on the basis of three central trends which are referred to as formalization, economization and specialization. These trends constitute processes that characterize application and development of management accounting during growth. The reason behind required change can be due to an increased internal complexity, which creates the need for distinct management and adequate control tools.

nÃo hà / O objetivo deste trabalho foi o de verificar a existÃncia de uma relaÃÃo dinÃmica entre a polÃtica monetÃria e fiscal no Brasil, considerando a possibilidade de ciclos econÃmicos, a partir de dados mensais para o perÃodo de 1997 a 2011. A anÃlise das interaÃÃes entre da taxa de juros e do resultado primÃrio como proporÃÃo do PIB baseia-se em um modelo de vetor autoregressivo com mudanÃas de Markov (MS-VAR) proposto por Hamilton (1989) e aperfeiÃoado por Krolzig (1997), uma vez que a relaÃÃo entre essas polÃticas pode nÃo ser constantes ao longo das diferentes fases da economia. Os resultados empÃricos mostram uma correlaÃÃo positiva entre a taxa de juros e o resultado primÃrio, evidÃncia empÃrica em favor de que as autoridades fiscal e monetÃria compartilham objetivos comuns. / The aim of this paper is to verify the existence of a dynamic relationship between monetary and fiscal policy in Brazil, considering the possibility of economic cycles, from monthly data for the period 1997 to 2011. The analysis of co-movement between interest rate and the primary outcome/GDP is based on a vector autoregressive model with Markov changes (MSVAR) proposed by Hamilton (1989) and perfected by Krolzig (1997), a since the relationship between these policies may not be constant throughout the different phases of the economy. The empirical results show a positive correlation between interest rate and the primary outcome, the empirical evidence in favor of and monetary authorities share common goals.

Submitted by Maicon Juliano Schmidt (maicons) on 2015-07-06T14:25:22Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Gustavo Jose Schuck.pdf: 1176134 bytes, checksum: 0a06b537ba55c68822649108c9e9d315 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-06T14:25:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Gustavo Jose Schuck.pdf: 1176134 bytes, checksum: 0a06b537ba55c68822649108c9e9d315 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-07-26 / Nenhuma / O interesse e, especialmente, a necessidade da atual economia global em entender o presente e antecipar o futuro, mesmo que no curto prazo, torna o estudo da previsão cíclica e, consequentemente, dos indicadores antecedentes de extrema importância. Dessa forma, este trabalho tem como objetivo a criação de três indicadores antecedentes compostos para a Produção Física da Agroindústria no Brasil, com horizonte de previsão entre 2 e 4 meses, 5 a 8 meses e 9 a 12 meses, respectivamente nomeados de Curto, Médio e Longo prazo. Para tanto, foi feito um levantamento do estado atual da arte, principalmente da produzida para o Brasil. Introdutoriamente, é apresentado o conceito de ciclo e indicadores antecedentes, como a justificativa e importância desse tema. Então, é feito um levantamento da literatura sobre ciclos, abordando publicações seminais, como Burns e Mitchell (1946), e a atual discussão entre ciclos econômicos e ciclos de crescimento. Após, abordo o conceito de indicadores antecedentes, sua origem, principais métodos utilizados e trabalhos atuais sobre o tema. Por fim, é construída uma metodologia, baseada no modelo proposto em OECD (2008) com adição de modelos VAR, Causalidade de Granger e Probit, sendo testada e avaliada para as informações mensais da Produção Física da Agroindústria no Brasil e outras 421 séries candidatas a antecedentes, no período entre janeiro de 1995 e dezembro de 2011. Conclui-se positivamente no que se refere à possibilidade de criação de indicadores antecedentes compostos, seja de curto, médio ou longo prazo, para Agroindústria brasileira. / The interest and especially the need of today's global economy to understand the present and anticipate the future, even in the short term, makes the study of cyclical forecasting and the leading indicators of extreme importance. Thus, this study aims to create three composite leading indicators for GDP of the Brazilian Agribusiness, with the forecast horizon between 2-4 months, 5-8 months and 9-12 months respectively named short, medium and long term. For this purpose, a survey was made of the current state of the art, mainly produced in Brazil. Introductorily, we present the concept of the cycle and leading indicators, as the justification and importance of this issue. Then, a survey of the literature on business cycles, addressing seminal publications such as Burns and Mitchell (1946), and the current discussion between business cycles and growth cycles. By then, it was mentioned the concept of leading indicators, its origin, the main methods used and current work on the subject. Finally, we built a methodology, based on the model proposed in OECD (2008) with addition of VAR models, Granger Causality and Probit. Being tested and evaluated, for the monthly information of physical production of Agribusiness in Brazil and other 421 series candidates as leading indicators, for period between January 1995 and December 2011. Completing positively to the possibility of creating composite leading indicators, whether short, medium or long term, for Brazilian Agribusiness.

La « Grande Récession » de 2008-2009 ou encore l'aggravation de la crise des dettes souveraines et de la dette publique dans la zone euro à l'été 2011, constituent de récents événements qui ont cristallisé les enjeux de l'analyse conjoncturelle, ceux relatifs notamment à la datation et à la prévision des inflexions cycliques de l'activité réelle. L'objet de cette thèse s'inscrit fondamentalement au sein de ces deux approches complémentaires du cycle économique.Le chapitre 1 dresse un portrait du cycle autour de trois conceptions distinctes de ses points de retournement : le cycle classique, le cycle de croissance et le cycle d'accélération. Nous discutons également de sa mesure eu égard aux diverses représentations possibles de l'activité agrégée d'un pays, ainsi qu'aux deux traditions existantes dans lesquelles s'inscrivent les modèles de datation. Nous mettons par ailleurs en lumière l'influence grandissante de l'environnement financier sur la dynamique cyclique des économies. Le chapitre 2 nous amène à développer deux algorithmes non-paramétriques dans le but de repérer les inflexions propres à chacun des cycles auparavant conceptualisés, mais aussipour en mesurer leurs principales caractéristiques. Le premier (resp. le second) algorithme repose sur une représentation univariée (resp. multivariée) de l'activité économique globale ; in fine, nous les appliquons aux données de la conjoncture française entre 1970 et 2010. Le chapitre 3 tire parti de nos résultats en matière de datation conjoncturelle afin de prévoir les récessions françaises depuis 1974. Au moyen de modèles probits, nous illustrons le rôle de variables financières et monétaires en tant qu'indicateurs avancés des fluctuations du cycle des affaires français. Nous montrons de plus que nos modèles prédictifs assurent uneparfaite détection des récessions pour un horizon égal à deux trimestres.Le chapitre 4 prolonge l'ensemble de l'analyse à plusieurs États membres de la zoneeuro, ces derniers étant observés depuis 1979. Nous construisons d'abord une chronologie de leurs cycles classiques respectifs puis, nous proposons un examen de leurs caractéristiques moyennes et de leur degré de synchronisation. Enfin, en s'appuyant sur des indicateurs financiers et monétaires dans le cadre d'un probit dynamique à effets fixes, nous parvenons à anticiper - jusqu'à un horizon de deux trimestres - les épisodes récessifs survenus dans les économies considérées. / The « Great Recession » of 2008-2009 and the sovereign and public debt crises which strengthened in the euro area in the summer of 2011 are recent events that have crystallized the challenges facing economic analysis, especially those related to dating and predicting cyclical inflections of real activity. The purpose of this thesis is to study these two complementary approaches to the economic cycle. Chapter 1 provides a portrait of the cycle using three distinct conceptions of its turning points: the classical cycle, the growth cycle and the acceleration cycle. We also discuss the measurement of the cycle with respect to various possible representations of aggregate activity of a country, as well as to two existing traditions which encompass dating models. Moreover, we highlight the growing influence of the financial environment over business cycle fluctuations.In chapter 2, we develop two non-parametric algorithms in order to identify theinflections that are particular to each of the previously conceptualized cycles, but also to measure their main characteristics. The first algorithm is based on a univariate representation of overall economic activity, the second on its ultivariate representation; ultimately, we apply the algorithms to the data of the French economy between 1970 and 2010. Chapter 3 builds on our results for cyclical dating to predict French recessions since 1974. Using probit models, we illustrate the role of monetary and financial variables as leading indicators of French business cycle fluctuations. In addition, we show that our models accurately detect recessions for a forecasting lag of two-quarters. Chapter 4 extends the entire analysis to several member states of the euro zone, with observations beginning in 1979. We first construct a chronology of their classical cycles, and then we propose an analysis of their main characteristics and their degree of synchronization.Finally, based on financial and monetary indicators in the context of a dynamic probit with fixed effects, we can anticipate the recessionary episodes which occurred in these economies with a horizon of two quarters.

This research presents the results of a qualitative and quantitative investigation to understand the challenges of public sector facilities management and maintenance to include the negative impact of deferred maintenance, it’s history, the current industry practices and the potential to reverse the negative impact of the current trend. History has been known to speak loudly, and with accuracy relative to the expansion of public facilities and the challenge to maintain them. The challenge to keep pace with the growing population and the ever-changing requirements for contemporary designs are felt in every sector of our public facilities. Regardless, we, the public trust that those responsible are managing these assets effectively and efficiently. Research indicates that this doesn’t appear to be the case. This study serves as a measurement against the historical performance of public facilities management practice. There have been decades of growth in public assets. During that time, innovation within operational practice and technology offer new opportunities for organizations to address issues of efficiency that translate directly in a measure of effectiveness. Given the continued outcry for additional funding, it seems that there are challenges that continue to exist despite the innovation offered. This study focuses on those challenges. Further analysis, based on successful models of public facilities management, provides insights as to what practices, if adopted, may drive the lesser achieving programs toward greater effectiveness. This paper also includes the results of a study that focuses on the current practices of public facilities management programs. The intent is to identify elements that either support or detract from efficiently operated, effective facilities departments. Given the nature of this industry, both objective and subjective elements were addressed. Objectively the organizational hierarchy and the associated communications pathways were identified. Subjectively, the lifecycle of the facilities mission was dissected and discussed throughout an interview process. Fifteen specified data points were addressed, which included questions related to accountability, effective communication, data driven program development, allocation of resources, documentation of work performed, continuous training and education and the use of technology. In order to reverse the declining momentum, we must first identify the most common areas that challenge facilities managers and understand how they currently address those challenges. This research will address the following questions: What do facilities managers perceive to be the greatest obstacles to ensuring their facilities are properly maintained? What factors do facilities mangers perceive to be the greatest challenge to ensuring sufficient resources are allocated to current maintenance? To what degree do facilities managers perceive that more effective communications would positively impact the effectiveness of facilities management and maintenance. The results of this research presents a comprehensive understanding of the challenges that face public sector facilities leadership teams, the history and creation of excessive deferred maintenance and finally, future opportunities that identifies best practices and presents an artifact that reflects a means to resolve those deficiencies identified within the current facilities management environment.