Orientador: Prof. Dr. Carlos Eduardo Capovilla / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal do ABC, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Elétrica, 2014. / Este trabalho academico apresenta a modelagem eletrica de um ambiente residencial e a disponibiliza como infraestrutura necess'aria para pesquisas futuras na 'area de redes inteligentes dom'esticas (Home Smart Grids). Tais modelos são disponbilizados em um formato de arquivo de biblioteca do ambiente de simulação MatLab/Simulink. Para atingir este objetivo, é realizada a modelagem te'orica e experimental de diversos aparelhos domésticos e cabos elétricos. Dois modelos de medidores de energia inteligentes são desenvolvidos, que podem ser conectados a qualquer ponto da instalação el'etrica residencial. Um modelo de resid¿encia com seu respectivo diagrama unifilar da simulação el'etrica 'e apresentado, permitindo execução de simulações de seu funcionamento completo. / This academic work presents the electric modeling of a residential wiring and makes it available as a necessary infrastructure for future researches about Home Smart Grids. The models are available in a MatLab/Simulink simulation environment library format. In order to achieve this objective, both theoretical and experimental modeling is performed for many electric loads (home appliances) and cables. Two kinds of electric smart meters are also developed, which can be connected at any point of the residential wiring. A residence model with its wiring diagram is presented, allowing the simulation execution of a full residence operation.

O trabalho trata da difusão das inovações, explorando conceitos já discutidos pela literatura pertinente. A revisão dessa literatura foi feita tanto nos modelos qualitativos quanto nos quantitativos, o que permitiu verificar que o tema é bastante amplo e de grande importância para a sociedade e as empresas. Diferentes áreas como Sociologia, Antropologia, Marketing, Economia, Administração e Engenharia de Produção; foram analisadas para identificar como o fenômeno da difusão é estudado. A inovação é um tema presente em todas as corporações modernas, seja pela pressão mercadológica ou tecnológica, portanto, é considerada fundamental para o sucesso de uma organização. Assim, o trabalho explorou como as empresas tratam sua estratégia de inovar, quando e se incorporam conceitos sobre difusão das inovações na sociedade, de forma a aumentar as chances de sucesso de um novo produto. Foi estudado o comportamento da difusão dos seguintes bens duráveis nos domicílios brasileiros: televisores, rádios, geladeiras, freezer e filtros de água; e também a existência de canalização interna de água. Para suportar esse estudo, foram consultadas as diversas pesquisas realizadas periodicamente pelo IBGE, como Censos Decenais, PNADs, POF, seja na forma impressa ou em base eletrônica de dados, como na análise de microdados (resultados brutos das entrevistas), os quais foram processados com o auxílio de software estatístico SPSS. Foram identificadas as curvas de difusão dos itens citados, na seguinte seqüência: total do Brasil, segmentado em área urbana e rural e segmentando a população em cinco diferentes classes de renda. Em seguida os resultados foram submetidos à análise estatística de freqüência, de eventuais correlações entre os grupos de inovações, nas classes de renda e entre classes de renda, assim como a adesão de algumas das curvas de difusão em relação às propostas dos modelos teóricos. Os resultados permitem assumir que a classe de renda mais alta desempenha um importante papel no processo de difusão das inovações, podendo seu comportamento servir de indicador para o processo que ocorrerá nas outras camadas de renda. Complementarmente, e para suportar algumas das afirmações feitas ao longo do trabalho também foram realizadas pesquisas de preços de diferentes eletrodomésticos desde 1960, em seus valores históricos, corrigidos pelo índice IPC-FIPE SP e pela quantidade de salários mínimos vigentes na época. O trabalho resultou na proposta de dois modelos: um representando o papel da classe de renda mais alta em relação ao processo de difusão das inovações e um segundo, com base no primeiro, representando como incorporar o processo de difusão das inovações na estratégia das empresas. Como conclusão final é possível afirmar que os resultados devem auxiliar as empresas na administração de uma inovação, permitindo monitorar as tendências que deverão se projetar no restante do ciclo de vida do produto. / The thesis is dealing with diffusion of innovations, exploring the subjects in many of their studies. The scope of this literature review has included both qualitative and quantitative models, allowing the perception of the enormous efforts already done in such area, as well as their importance. The research has included different areas, as Sociology, Anthropology, Marketing, Economy, Administration, Production Engineering, checking how they take care about this theme. Modern corporations assume innovation discussions as a result of nowadays technology and market pressure, assuming their impact for successful organizations. So, the work explores how companies deal with their innovation strategy, when and if diffusion of innovation concepts is considered in order to increase their new product success. The study checked the following durable goods diffusion response in Brazilian houses: TV sets, radios, refrigerators, freezers and water filters, complemented by how home water canalization diffusion happened. Researches previously made by IBGE - Statistic and Geography Brazilian Institute - as decennial census, PNADs, POF supported the work, in their printed or electronic forms, even in the original research data. SPSS was used to support data treatment. Diffusion curves of the above mentioned items were researched, in the following patterns: Brazil, split in rural and urban areas, and divided into five different incoming revenues. Frequencies and correlations among innovation groups, incoming revenues results were analyzed, as well as the adherences against the theorized distributions. The results afford to assume that richest people have an important point in innovation diffusion processes, and their behavior can be used as an indicator to the other incoming revenues categories. To support some thesis conclusions, home appliances prices were researched since 1960, in historical values, updated by IPC-FIPE - SP index and by minimum wage quantities at the time the price were published. The work has proposed two models: the first modeling the top wage incoming behavior in the diffusion of innovation process and the second model, supported by the first, representing how companies\' strategy should care about innovation diffusion. As a final conclusion it is possible to say the results should help organizations in the new product administration responses, by monitoring the tendencies and projecting them in the future product life cycle.

O trabalho trata da difusão das inovações, explorando conceitos já discutidos pela literatura pertinente. A revisão dessa literatura foi feita tanto nos modelos qualitativos quanto nos quantitativos, o que permitiu verificar que o tema é bastante amplo e de grande importância para a sociedade e as empresas. Diferentes áreas como Sociologia, Antropologia, Marketing, Economia, Administração e Engenharia de Produção; foram analisadas para identificar como o fenômeno da difusão é estudado. A inovação é um tema presente em todas as corporações modernas, seja pela pressão mercadológica ou tecnológica, portanto, é considerada fundamental para o sucesso de uma organização. Assim, o trabalho explorou como as empresas tratam sua estratégia de inovar, quando e se incorporam conceitos sobre difusão das inovações na sociedade, de forma a aumentar as chances de sucesso de um novo produto. Foi estudado o comportamento da difusão dos seguintes bens duráveis nos domicílios brasileiros: televisores, rádios, geladeiras, freezer e filtros de água; e também a existência de canalização interna de água. Para suportar esse estudo, foram consultadas as diversas pesquisas realizadas periodicamente pelo IBGE, como Censos Decenais, PNADs, POF, seja na forma impressa ou em base eletrônica de dados, como na análise de microdados (resultados brutos das entrevistas), os quais foram processados com o auxílio de software estatístico SPSS. Foram identificadas as curvas de difusão dos itens citados, na seguinte seqüência: total do Brasil, segmentado em área urbana e rural e segmentando a população em cinco diferentes classes de renda. Em seguida os resultados foram submetidos à análise estatística de freqüência, de eventuais correlações entre os grupos de inovações, nas classes de renda e entre classes de renda, assim como a adesão de algumas das curvas de difusão em relação às propostas dos modelos teóricos. Os resultados permitem assumir que a classe de renda mais alta desempenha um importante papel no processo de difusão das inovações, podendo seu comportamento servir de indicador para o processo que ocorrerá nas outras camadas de renda. Complementarmente, e para suportar algumas das afirmações feitas ao longo do trabalho também foram realizadas pesquisas de preços de diferentes eletrodomésticos desde 1960, em seus valores históricos, corrigidos pelo índice IPC-FIPE SP e pela quantidade de salários mínimos vigentes na época. O trabalho resultou na proposta de dois modelos: um representando o papel da classe de renda mais alta em relação ao processo de difusão das inovações e um segundo, com base no primeiro, representando como incorporar o processo de difusão das inovações na estratégia das empresas. Como conclusão final é possível afirmar que os resultados devem auxiliar as empresas na administração de uma inovação, permitindo monitorar as tendências que deverão se projetar no restante do ciclo de vida do produto. / The thesis is dealing with diffusion of innovations, exploring the subjects in many of their studies. The scope of this literature review has included both qualitative and quantitative models, allowing the perception of the enormous efforts already done in such area, as well as their importance. The research has included different areas, as Sociology, Anthropology, Marketing, Economy, Administration, Production Engineering, checking how they take care about this theme. Modern corporations assume innovation discussions as a result of nowadays technology and market pressure, assuming their impact for successful organizations. So, the work explores how companies deal with their innovation strategy, when and if diffusion of innovation concepts is considered in order to increase their new product success. The study checked the following durable goods diffusion response in Brazilian houses: TV sets, radios, refrigerators, freezers and water filters, complemented by how home water canalization diffusion happened. Researches previously made by IBGE - Statistic and Geography Brazilian Institute - as decennial census, PNADs, POF supported the work, in their printed or electronic forms, even in the original research data. SPSS was used to support data treatment. Diffusion curves of the above mentioned items were researched, in the following patterns: Brazil, split in rural and urban areas, and divided into five different incoming revenues. Frequencies and correlations among innovation groups, incoming revenues results were analyzed, as well as the adherences against the theorized distributions. The results afford to assume that richest people have an important point in innovation diffusion processes, and their behavior can be used as an indicator to the other incoming revenues categories. To support some thesis conclusions, home appliances prices were researched since 1960, in historical values, updated by IPC-FIPE - SP index and by minimum wage quantities at the time the price were published. The work has proposed two models: the first modeling the top wage incoming behavior in the diffusion of innovation process and the second model, supported by the first, representing how companies\' strategy should care about innovation diffusion. As a final conclusion it is possible to say the results should help organizations in the new product administration responses, by monitoring the tendencies and projecting them in the future product life cycle.

Jordens resurser konsumeras linjärt och ohållbart, trots att de är begränsade. Produkter produceras, används och kasseras i en hög takt. Det nuvarande förhållningssättet till jordens resurser är inte resurseffektivt och är följaktligen ett oroande problem för jordens framtid. När befolkningen växer och medelklassen på tillväxtmarknader blir större möts vi av en ökning av råvarornas pris och prisvariation. Detta innebär att vi borde överväga andra sätt att konsumera och tillverka för att bibehålla vår levnadsstandard. Om vi inte tillsätter några åtgärder skulle det år 2050 krävas en dubblering av jordens storlek och därmed resurser för att möjliggöra hantering av dagens konsumtionsnivåer. Detta är ett oroväckande faktum som kräver en förändring av vårt levnadssätt. EU satsar mycket forskning inom området för att skapa denna förändring. Vitvarubranschen är en del av problemet som beskrivs ovan. Priserna blir allt lägre och en konsekvens av detta blir ofta att kvaliteten på komponenterna blir bristande. Detta i kombination med höga priser för reparation och service, leder till kortare livslängd för vitvarorna. Resurseffektiviteten är därmed låg och en förändring krävs i hur vitvaror konsumeras. Cirkulär ekonomi är ett nytt sätt att tänka kring tillgängliga resurser. Nyckeln är att säkerställa att jordens tillgängliga resurser används på ett mer hållbart sätt i cykler. Genom att utforma och utveckla produkter för att hålla i flera cykler, modularisera och introducera nya affärsmodeller, kan produkterna hålla längre och vara mer resurseffektiva. Cirkulär ekonomi har studerats i olika fallstudier och samlats i en stor rapport av Ellen MacArthur Foundation. Rapporten visar lovande resultat för olika fall, inklusive leasing kombinerat med återtillverkning av tvättmaskiner. ResCoM är ett EU-projekt ämnat att skapa ett ramverk för implementation av cirkulär ekonomi som testas i fyra olika fallstudier, varav ett är med vitvarutillverkaren Gorenje. Genom cirkulär ekonomi kan ekonomisk lönsamhet uppnås, både för tillverkare och kunder, samtidigt som man får en lägre resursförbrukning. Denna rapport består av en litteraturstudie av cirkulär ekonomi och dess cykler applicerade på vitvarubranschen, en konsumentundersökning och intervjuer. Konsumentundersökningen visar på ett stort intresse för leasing av vitvaror. Intervjuerna gav en djupare insyn i varför förändring kan vara utmanande att genomföra för marknadsledande företag. Resultatet av vårt arbete visar, trots utmaningar, att vitvarubranschen har potential att gå över till ett cirkulärt system. Med denna studies framtagna affärsmodell i tre steg blir förändringen mindre radikal genom att utnyttja befintlig infrastruktur för logistik och försäljning. Ett framgångsrikt första steg visar branschen att det finns lönsamhet i affärsmodellen. Av detta skäl kommer andra tillverkare att intressera sig för att använda en liknande affärsmodell och tillsammans kan de staka ut vägen för en förändring mot en hållbar framtid. / The natural resources of our earth are consumed in a linear and unsustainable way, although they are limited. The current consumption model is not resource efficient and therefore a problem for the future of our earth. As the global population grows and the middle class of emerging markets gets bigger we are facing an increase in the price and volatility of raw materials. This means we should consider other ways of manufacturing and consuming in order to keep our living standard. If no actions are taken, we would need a planet twice as big in the year 2050 to cope with today’s way of consuming. This is an alarming fact that the European Union is putting a lot of effort into research on how to tackle. The home appliance industry is a part of this problem, the prices are getting lower and consequently, the quality of the components used in the appliances as well. This, combined with high prices for repair and service, leads to shorter life cycles for the appliances. Hence, the resource utilization is low and a change in the way we consume our appliances is needed. Circular economy is a new way of thinking considering the resources that are available. The key is to make sure that we are using the resources available in the most sustainable way in circular supply chains. By designing out waste, making modular products and introducing new business models, the products can have a longer and more resource efficient life cycle. The concept has been applied in different case studies and gathered in an extensive report by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation. The report shows promising results for various cases including leasing combined with remanufacturing or refurbishment of washing machines. ResCoM is a project co-sponsored by the European Union intended to create a framework for implementation of circular economy which is tested in four industrial cases, one of them being the home appliance manufacturer Gorenje. Economic profit for both the manufacturer and the customer is obtainable, as well as a higher level of resource efficiency. This report includes a study of the literature of circular economy and its different cycles applicable to the home appliance industry, as well as a market survey and interviews. The survey shows that many people are interested in leasing and the interviews provide more insight on why the change is challenging to make for the big companies that lead the industry. The results of our report show that the home appliance industry has potential to successfully implement a circular system. Using our business model to make the transition in three steps the current infrastructure of logistics and sales will make the change less radical. The first stage will be crucial for the success of the implementation. A successful first stage will show the industry that it is a profitable business model and other manufacturers will become interested in implementing a similar model, which enables the change for a more sustainable future.

Submitted by Maicon Juliano Schmidt (maicons) on 2015-07-20T14:40:27Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dirceu Baccin.pdf: 2171261 bytes, checksum: a40f5d6814fa1b064eb85b2e99dd578b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-20T14:40:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dirceu Baccin.pdf: 2171261 bytes, checksum: a40f5d6814fa1b064eb85b2e99dd578b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-05-19 / Nenhuma / O presente estudo examina os impactos das normas de defesa do consumidor brasileiras, com base na Análise Econômica do Direito, perante as redes varejistas de eletrodomésticos, fornecedores e consumidores. O estudo visa aproximar o enfoque econômico com as políticas públicas e analisa a necessidade das constantes intervenções do Estado no direito consumidor brasileiro. A abordagem do trabalho teve um enfoque qualitativo de natureza exploratória, que dará suporte para uma pesquisa mais aprofundada do tema, para aproximar ainda mais a Análise Econômica do Direito com o Direito do Consumidor brasileiro. Os principais resultados da pesquisa indicam que as normas de defesa do consumidor brasileiras trouxeram como impactos econômicos o aumento das vendas, conseqüentes da regulamentação do mercado e da segurança jurídica vislumbrada, juntamente com o aumento de burocracia interna e dos custos das empresas, que em parte são repassados aos consumidores e aos fabricantes. / This study examines the impacts of Brazilian consumer protection standards, based on Economic Analysis of Law, before the home appliance retailers, suppliers and consumers. The study aims to bring economic approach to public policies and examines the need for constant government intervention in the Brazilian consumer law. The labor approach had a qualitative focus exploratory in nature, which will provide support for further research theme, to further approach the Economic Analysis of Law with the Law of the Brazilian consumer. The main results of the research indicate that the Brazilian consumer protection standards brought as economic impacts increased sales, consequent regulation of the market and the envisaged legal certainty and increased internal bureaucracy and business costs, which in part are passed on to consumers and manufacturers.

Submitted by Alexandre Otomo de Almeida (otomo.almeida@gmail.com) on 2017-03-04T15:15:48Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_vf2.pdf: 906019 bytes, checksum: 389d53353d9269653e591405747ca68f (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Alexandre, boa noite Para que possamos aceitar seu trabalho, por gentileza, realizar os ajustes de acordo com as normas a ABNT: Diminuir os espaços entre as frases do título. A apresentação ocorreu em 2017. Alterar São Paulo 2016, para São Paulo 2017. Na contra capa e folha de assinaturas, em campo de conhecimento deverá colocar sua área: Economia. Em seguida, submeter novamente o arquivo. att on 2017-03-07T00:11:09Z (GMT) / Submitted by Alexandre Otomo de Almeida (otomo.almeida@gmail.com) on 2017-03-07T02:06:07Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_vf2.pdf: 905969 bytes, checksum: ddcaca60b92b7d4a93c6ae17626d4f8a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2017-03-08T23:41:02Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_vf2.pdf: 905969 bytes, checksum: ddcaca60b92b7d4a93c6ae17626d4f8a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-09T13:17:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_vf2.pdf: 905969 bytes, checksum: ddcaca60b92b7d4a93c6ae17626d4f8a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-09 / This paper consists of a study over the impact of interest rates and maturities of loans for electronics and home appliances in Brazil, designed for consumers with credit constraints. Using micro data on loans of one of the largest retailers in the Brazilian market, some econometric models were built using conditional and nested logit approach, in order to estimate elasticities of loan demand with respect to the interest rate, the maturity of the loan and the terms value. Moreover, marginal substitution rates were also estimated between those attributes to evaluate consumer’s propensity to choose different combinations of loan conditions. Given the number of different product categories sold by this retailer, two of the most important were selected. The results suggest that the interest rate, the payment terms and the loan maturity are important factors on consumer decision. Loan demand is leveraged by loan’s smaller interest rates and payment terms. However, there is a material marginal substitution rate between payment terms and loan maturity or interest rate. This means that consumers are highly prone to change from loans with higher payment terms to others with lower ones, even if they face higher interest rates and longer terms to maturity. Results also suggest that consumers are not really aware of the real value paid for these products. / O trabalho tem por objetivo o estudo do impacto da taxa de juros e dos prazos de financiamento sobre a demanda de eletroeletrônicos no Brasil para os públicos com restrição de acesso a crédito. Utilizando dados de vendas por meio de crédito direto ao consumidor (CDC) de um grande varejista brasileiro, foram construídos modelos logit condicional e aninhado para dimensionamento das elasticidades da demanda às taxas de juros, aos prazos de parcelamento e ao valor das parcelas. Além disso, foram dimensionadas as subsequentes taxas marginais de substituição entre os atributos dos planos de financiamento oferecidos aos clientes, para avaliar a propensão à troca de condições de planos de financiamento pelos consumidores. Dada a extensão das categorias de produtos existentes no varejista em questão, foram selecionadas duas categorias de alta representatividade no resultado de vendas. Para as duas categorias selecionadas, foi constatado que a taxa de juros é fator importante na decisão de compra, bem como o número e valor das parcelas. A demanda se mostrou positivamente impactada por taxas de juros menores, bem como por valores de parcela menores. No entanto, os consumidores se mostraram altamente dispostos à substituição de planos com prazos de financiamento e taxas de juros menores por planos com valores menores das parcelas. Por fim, foi constatado que os consumidores têm baixa consciência do valor real pago pelos produtos comprados.

Kenntnisse über das prinzipielle Verhalten der Lasten und deren Benutzung durch die Endabnehmer sind im Wesentlichen vorhanden. Viele der aktuell notwendigen Untersuchungen benötigen jedoch Zeitreihen elektrischer Lasten, sogenannte Lastgänge. Mit der Synthese von Zeitreihen elektrischer Lasten können unter Berücksichtigung verschiedenster Anforderungen Lastgänge aufgebaut werden, wobei in dieser Arbeit der Fokus auf Haushaltsabnehmer liegt. Wichtige Eingangsdaten für die Lastgangsynthese sind die technischen Kenngrößen der elektrischen Geräte und die sozialen Kennzahlen zur Benutzung der Geräte durch die Endabnehmer. Anhand dieser Eingangsdaten wird die Lastgangsynthese durchgeführt und werden Anwendungsbeispiele dargestellt. Die Entwicklung von klassischen Versorgungsnetzen hin zu aktiven Verteilungsnetzen ist bedingt durch neue Verbraucher, wie Wärmepumpen, Elektroautos, sowie vielen dezentralen Erzeugungsanlagen. Speziell die fluktuierende Einspeisung durch Photovoltaik-Anlagen ist Anlass zur Forderung nach einem Verbrauchs- und Lastmanagement. Mit dem Verbrauchsmanagement wird die Last an die Einspeisung angepasst und das Lastmanagement berücksichtigt zusätzlich die Versorgungssituation des Netzes. Für die Lastgangsynthese werden die Haushaltsgeräte in fünf Geräteklassen unterteilt, für die spezifische Kennzahlen aus technischer und sozialer Sicht angegeben werden. Diese Kennzahlen sind Leistung pro Gerät oder Energieverbrauch pro Nutzung sowie Ausstattungsgrade, Benutzungshäufigkeiten und Zeiten für das Ein- und Ausschalten der Geräte. Damit wird ein neuer Ansatz gewählt, welcher nicht mehr auf die detaillierte Beschreibung des Bewohnerverhaltens beruht, da die Datenbereitstellung dafür äußerst schwierig war und ist. Vorzugsweise in Niederspannungsnetzen sind mit synthetischen Zeitreihen umfangreiche und umfassende Untersuchungen realisierbar. Es gibt verschiedenste Möglichkeiten, die Zeitreihen zusammenzustellen. Mit Lastgängen je Außenleiter können beispielsweise unsymmetrische Zustände der Netze analysiert werden. Zudem können auch Lastgänge für Geräte bzw. Gerätegruppen erstellt werden, welche für Potenzialanalysen des Verbrauchsmanagement essenziell sind. Der wesentliche Unterschied besteht darin, dass viele Berechnungen nicht mehr auf deterministische Extremwerte beruhen, sondern die stochastischen Eigenschaften der Endabnehmer mit den resultierenden Lastgängen berücksichtigt werden. / Distributed generation and novel loads such as electric vehicles and heat pumps require the development towards active distribution networks. Load curves are needed for the appropriate design process. This thesis presents a feasible and expandable synthesis of load curves, which is performed exemplary on residential customers with a period under review of 1 year and time steps of as little as 30 s. The data is collected for up-to-date appliances and current statics examining the way of life. The main focus lies on the input data for the synthesis and distinguishes between technical and social factors. Some thirty home appliances have been analyzed and are classified into five appliance classes by incorporating switching operations and power consumptions. The active power is the key figure for the technical perspective and the data is derived from manufacturer information. For the social perspective six different customer types are defined. They differ in sizes of household and housekeeping. The social key figures are appliance penetration rate and depending on the appliance class the turn-on time, turn-off time, operating duration or cycle duration. The elaborated two-stage synthesis is efficiently implemented in Matlab®. First, artificial load curves are created for each appliance of the households under consideration of the appliance class. In the second step, the individual load curves of the appliances are combined to load curves per line conductor. The algorithms have been validated in the implementation process by retracing the input data in the load curves. Also, the feasibility of the results is shown by comparing the key figures maximum load and power consumption to data in literature. The generated load curves allow for unsymmetrical calculations of distribution systems and can be used for probabilistic investigations of the charging of electric vehicles, the sizing of thermal storage combined with heat pumps or the integration of battery storage systems. A main advantage is the possibility to estimate the likelihood of operating conditions. The enhancement to further appliances and the changeability of the input data allows for versatile further possible investigations.

Kenntnisse über das prinzipielle Verhalten der Lasten und deren Benutzung durch die Endabnehmer sind im Wesentlichen vorhanden. Viele der aktuell notwendigen Untersuchungen benötigen jedoch Zeitreihen elektrischer Lasten, sogenannte Lastgänge. Mit der Synthese von Zeitreihen elektrischer Lasten können unter Berücksichtigung verschiedenster Anforderungen Lastgänge aufgebaut werden, wobei in dieser Arbeit der Fokus auf Haushaltsabnehmer liegt. Wichtige Eingangsdaten für die Lastgangsynthese sind die technischen Kenngrößen der elektrischen Geräte und die sozialen Kennzahlen zur Benutzung der Geräte durch die Endabnehmer. Anhand dieser Eingangsdaten wird die Lastgangsynthese durchgeführt und werden Anwendungsbeispiele dargestellt. Die Entwicklung von klassischen Versorgungsnetzen hin zu aktiven Verteilungsnetzen ist bedingt durch neue Verbraucher, wie Wärmepumpen, Elektroautos, sowie vielen dezentralen Erzeugungsanlagen. Speziell die fluktuierende Einspeisung durch Photovoltaik-Anlagen ist Anlass zur Forderung nach einem Verbrauchs- und Lastmanagement. Mit dem Verbrauchsmanagement wird die Last an die Einspeisung angepasst und das Lastmanagement berücksichtigt zusätzlich die Versorgungssituation des Netzes. Für die Lastgangsynthese werden die Haushaltsgeräte in fünf Geräteklassen unterteilt, für die spezifische Kennzahlen aus technischer und sozialer Sicht angegeben werden. Diese Kennzahlen sind Leistung pro Gerät oder Energieverbrauch pro Nutzung sowie Ausstattungsgrade, Benutzungshäufigkeiten und Zeiten für das Ein- und Ausschalten der Geräte. Damit wird ein neuer Ansatz gewählt, welcher nicht mehr auf die detaillierte Beschreibung des Bewohnerverhaltens beruht, da die Datenbereitstellung dafür äußerst schwierig war und ist. Vorzugsweise in Niederspannungsnetzen sind mit synthetischen Zeitreihen umfangreiche und umfassende Untersuchungen realisierbar. Es gibt verschiedenste Möglichkeiten, die Zeitreihen zusammenzustellen. Mit Lastgängen je Außenleiter können beispielsweise unsymmetrische Zustände der Netze analysiert werden. Zudem können auch Lastgänge für Geräte bzw. Gerätegruppen erstellt werden, welche für Potenzialanalysen des Verbrauchsmanagement essenziell sind. Der wesentliche Unterschied besteht darin, dass viele Berechnungen nicht mehr auf deterministische Extremwerte beruhen, sondern die stochastischen Eigenschaften der Endabnehmer mit den resultierenden Lastgängen berücksichtigt werden. / Distributed generation and novel loads such as electric vehicles and heat pumps require the development towards active distribution networks. Load curves are needed for the appropriate design process. This thesis presents a feasible and expandable synthesis of load curves, which is performed exemplary on residential customers with a period under review of 1 year and time steps of as little as 30 s. The data is collected for up-to-date appliances and current statics examining the way of life. The main focus lies on the input data for the synthesis and distinguishes between technical and social factors. Some thirty home appliances have been analyzed and are classified into five appliance classes by incorporating switching operations and power consumptions. The active power is the key figure for the technical perspective and the data is derived from manufacturer information. For the social perspective six different customer types are defined. They differ in sizes of household and housekeeping. The social key figures are appliance penetration rate and depending on the appliance class the turn-on time, turn-off time, operating duration or cycle duration. The elaborated two-stage synthesis is efficiently implemented in Matlab®. First, artificial load curves are created for each appliance of the households under consideration of the appliance class. In the second step, the individual load curves of the appliances are combined to load curves per line conductor. The algorithms have been validated in the implementation process by retracing the input data in the load curves. Also, the feasibility of the results is shown by comparing the key figures maximum load and power consumption to data in literature. The generated load curves allow for unsymmetrical calculations of distribution systems and can be used for probabilistic investigations of the charging of electric vehicles, the sizing of thermal storage combined with heat pumps or the integration of battery storage systems. A main advantage is the possibility to estimate the likelihood of operating conditions. The enhancement to further appliances and the changeability of the input data allows for versatile further possible investigations.