Submitted by Ary Cera Zanetta Neto Zanetta (ary.zanetta@brasil-capital.com) on 2014-08-19T19:21:54Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Efeitos de Choques Globais na Economia Brasileira_ Uma Análise a Partir do GVAR.pdf: 1085836 bytes, checksum: 25e953aa352fed09b5b828362226aab9 (MD5) / Rejected by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br), reason: A ficha catalográfica não está valida, por gentileza aguardar o envio da ficha correta pala biblioteca digital. on 2014-08-19T19:29:14Z (GMT) / Submitted by Ary Cera Zanetta Neto Zanetta (ary.zanetta@brasil-capital.com) on 2014-08-19T20:33:33Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Efeitos de Choques Globais na Economia Brasileira_ Uma Análise a Partir do GVAR.pdf: 1085836 bytes, checksum: 25e953aa352fed09b5b828362226aab9 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2014-08-20T16:30:59Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Efeitos de Choques Globais na Economia Brasileira_ Uma Análise a Partir do GVAR.pdf: 1085836 bytes, checksum: 25e953aa352fed09b5b828362226aab9 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-20T19:02:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Efeitos de Choques Globais na Economia Brasileira_ Uma Análise a Partir do GVAR.pdf: 1085836 bytes, checksum: 25e953aa352fed09b5b828362226aab9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-05 / O objetivo deste estudo é avaliar a propagação de choques econômicos de alguns países sobre o crescimento econômico brasileiro, com principal destaque para China, Estados Unidos da América (EUA) e Argentina, que são os principais parceiros comerciais do Brasil. O aumento do comércio com a China tornou o Brasil muito mais vulnerável a choques no PIB chinês e menos vulnerável, do que no passado recente, a choques no PIB americano, enquanto que a influência da Argentina manteve-se estável. Foi aplicada a metodologia Vetor Autorregressivo Global (Global Var – GVAR), introduzida por Pesaran, Schuermann e Weiner (2004), Garratt, Lee, Pesaran e Shin (2006) e Dées, Di Mauro, Pesaran e Smith (2007), para analisar os canais de comércio e a transmissão de choques entre o resto do mundo e o Brasil. Usando dados trimestrais a partir de 1990 até o final de 2013, foi possível constatar que o aumento da relevância da economia Chinesa na balança comercial Brasileira exerce pressão sobre o crescimento econômico do Brasil. Em suma, a China tornou-se mais relevante para o crescimento econômico do Brasil do que os EUA e a Argentina. / The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of variations in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of countries and economic blocks over Brazilian economic growth, with emphasis on China, United States of America (USA) and Argentina, which are the main commercial partners of Brazil. The increase in trading with China has made Brazil more vulnerable to shocks in Chinese GDP and less vulnerable, than in the recent past, to shocks in American GDP, and stability in the case of Argentina. It has been applied the methodology Global Vector Autorregressive (Global Var – GVAR), introduced, explained and expanded by Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner (2004), Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin (2006) and Dées, Di Mauro, Pesaran and Smith (2007) to analyze the trading channels and the transmission of shocks between the rest of the world and Brazil (specially with China, USA and Argentina). Using a sample from the first quarter of 1990 to the third quarter of 2013 it is possible to see that the increase of relevance of the Chinese economy on the Brazil trade balance increased the relevance of the Chinese economy over the Brazilian economy. Therefore, the conclusions of this work indicate a considerable vulnerability of the Brazilian economy to the Chinese economic cycle and, in a lower degree than in the past, to the American and Argentinian economies.

A number of developing countries have been on a quest to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) with the intention of increasing capital inflow through technological spillovers and transfer of managerial skills. FDI can increase economic growth and development of a country by creating employment, and by doing so, increasing economic activity that will lead to economic growth. South Africa is one of the economies that strive to attract more FDI inflows into the country to be able to improve its economy, and the country has adopted policies that drive the motive to attract FDI inflows. This study investigated the effect of FDI on sectoral growth over the period 1970–2014. The purpose was to find out where in the three key sectors of South Africa FDI is more significant. The review of theoretical and empirical literature on FDI revealed that FDI has a diverse effect on economic growth, both in developed and developing countries. Theoretical literature analysed the behaviour of multinational firms and the motive behind multinationals investing in foreign countries. According to Dunning (1993), firms have four motives to decide to produce abroad, namely natural resource-seeking, market-seeking, efficiency-seeking and strategic asset-seeking. Empirical studies on sectors show that FDI inflows affect different sectors in different ways, and that the agricultural sector does not usually gain from FDI inflows, whereas subsectors in the industry and services sector grow from receiving FDI inflows. Sectoral analysis revealed that the services sector receives more FDI inflows, when compared to the agriculture and industry sector. The study followed an econometric analysis technique to test the effect of FDI inflows on the agriculture, industry and services sectors. The augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron tests were used to test for unit root. Both tests revealed that variables were not stationary at level, but that they become stationary at first difference. Vector autoregressive (VAR) models were estimated, and four types of diagnostic tests were performed on them to check the fitness of the models. The tests showed that residuals of the estimated VARs were robust and well behaved. The Johansen cointegration test suggested there is cointegration and that there is a long-run relationship between variables. Following the existence of cointegration, the estimated Vector error correction model (VECM) results showed that FDI has a significant effect on the services and industry sector, but has a negative effect on the agricultural sector. Impulse response analysis results revealed the correct signs, and confirmed the VECM results. FDI inflows explain a small percentage of growth in agriculture and industry, but a sizable and significant percentage in the services sector. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

Nesta Dissertação propõe-se a aplicação de algoritmos genéticos para a síntese de filtros para modular sinais de controladores a estrutura variável e modo deslizante. A modulação do sinal de controle reduz a amplitude do sinal de saída e, consequentemente, pode reduzir o consumo de energia para realizar o controle e o chattering. Esses filtros também são aplicados em sistemas que possuem incertezas paramétricas nos quais nem todas as variáveis de estado são medidas. Nesses sistemas, as incertezas nos parâmetros podem impedir que seus estados sejam estimados com precisão por observadores. A síntese desses filtros necessita da obtenção da envoltória, que é o valor máximo da norma de cada resposta impulsiva admissível no sistema. Após este passo, é sintetizado um filtro que seja um majorante para a envoltória. Neste estudo, três métodos de busca da envoltória por algoritmos genéticos foram criados. Um dos métodos é o preferido, pois apresentou os melhores resultados e o menor tempo computacional. / This thesis proposes the application of genetic algorithms for the synthesis of filters which modulate signals of variable structure sliding mode controllers. The modulation of the control signal reduces the amplitude of the output signal and thus can reduce power consumption and chattering. These filters are also applied to systems with parametric uncertainties and unmeasured state variables. In these systems, the uncertainties can impair the accurate estimation of the state by means of observers. For the synthesis of these filters, it is necessary to obtain the envelope which is the maximum norm of each impulse response admissible for the system. After this step, a filter is synthesized to be an upper bound for the envelope. In this study, three methods of search of the envelope by genetic algorithms were developed. One of these methods has been giving the best results and needs the least computational time.

Submitted by JULIO CEZAR UZINSKI null (uzinski.jc@gmail.com) on 2016-12-15T21:43:22Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Uzinski JC.pdf: 2380247 bytes, checksum: 910b14a40501433136262e638e586b5f (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Felipe Augusto Arakaki (arakaki@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2016-12-20T16:20:21Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 uzinski_jc_dr_ilha.pdf: 2380247 bytes, checksum: 910b14a40501433136262e638e586b5f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-20T16:20:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 uzinski_jc_dr_ilha.pdf: 2380247 bytes, checksum: 910b14a40501433136262e638e586b5f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-11-25 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) / Esta tese apresenta uma parametrização no espaço de estados para a transformada wavelet rápida. Esta parametrização é baseada em funções de base ortonormal e filtros de resposta finita ao impulso simultaneamente, uma vez que, a transformada rápida wavelet é um algoritmo que consiste em decompor sinais no domínio do tempo em sequências de coeficientes baseados numa base ortogonal de funções wavelet. Deste modo, vantagens apresentadas por ambas as propostas são incorporadas. Modelos de resposta finita ao impulso têm propriedades atrativas como vantagens computacionais e analíticas, garantia de estabilidade BIBO e robustez para a mudança de alguns parâmetros, dentre outras. Por outro lado, séries de funções de base ortonormal têm características que as fazem atrativas para a modelagem de sistemas dinâmicos, como ausência de recursão da saída, a não necessidade de se conhecer previamente a estrutura exata do vetor de regressão, possibilidade de aumentar a capacidade de representação do modelo aumentando-se o número de funções ortonormais utilizadas, desacoplamento natural das saídas em modelos multivariáveis; tolerância a dinâmicas não modeladas. Além disso, a realização no espaço de estados é mínima. A contribuição deste trabalho consiste no desenvolvimento de uma realização no espaço de estados para bancos de filtros wavelet, em que há a presença explícita de parâmetros que podem ser livremente ajustados mantendo as propriedades de reconstrução perfeita e ortonormalidade. Para ilustrar o funcionamento e as vantagens da técnica proposta, alguns exemplos de decomposição de sinais no contexto de processamento de sinais mostrando que ela proporciona os mesmos coeficientes wavelet que a transformada wavelet rápida, e uma aplicação em controle através de realimentação dinâmica de estados também são apresentados nesta tese. / This thesis presents a state-space parameterization for the fast wavelet transform. This parameterization is based on orthonormal basis functions and finite impulse response filters at the same time, since the fast wavelet transform is an algorithm, which converts a signal in the time domain into a sequence of coefficients based on an orthogonal basis of small finite wavelet functions. Advantages presented by both proposals are incorporated. Finite impulse response systems have attractive properties, for instance, computational and analytical advantages, BIBO stability and robustness guarantee to some parameter changes, and others. On the other hand, orthonormal basis functions have some characteristics that make them attractive for dynamic systems modeling, examples are, output recursion absence, not requiring prior regression vector exact structure knowledge; possibility of increasing the model representation capacity by increasing the number of orthonormal functions employed; natural outputs uncoupling in multivariable models; tolerance to unmodeled dynamics, and others. Furthermore, the state-space realization is minimal. The contribution of this work consists in the development of a state-space realization for a wavelet filter bank, with the explicit presence of the parameters that can be freely adjusted, keeping perfect-reconstruction and orthonormality guarantees. In order to illustrate advantages and how the proposed technique works, some decomposition examples in signal processing context are presented showing that it provides the same wavelet coefficients as the fast wavelet transform, and an application on dynamic state feedback control is also presented in this thesis. / CNPq: 160545/2013-7

Orientador: Francisco Villarreal Alvarado / Resumo: Esta tese apresenta uma parametrização no espaço de estados para a transformada wavelet rápida. Esta parametrização é baseada em funções de base ortonormal e filtros de resposta finita ao impulso simultaneamente, uma vez que, a transformada rápida wavelet é um algoritmo que consiste em decompor sinais no domínio do tempo em sequências de coeficientes baseados numa base ortogonal de funções wavelet. Deste modo, vantagens apresentadas por ambas as propostas são incorporadas. Modelos de resposta finita ao impulso têm propriedades atrativas como vantagens computacionais e analíticas, garantia de estabilidade BIBO e robustez para a mudança de alguns parâmetros, dentre outras. Por outro lado, séries de funções de base ortonormal têm características que as fazem atrativas para a modelagem de sistemas dinâmicos, como ausência de recursão da saída, a não necessidade de se conhecer previamente a estrutura exata do vetor de regressão, possibilidade de aumentar a capacidade de representação do modelo aumentando-se o número de funções ortonormais utilizadas, desacoplamento natural das saídas em modelos multivariáveis; tolerância a dinâmicas não modeladas. Além disso, a realização no espaço de estados é mínima. A contribuição deste trabalho consiste no desenvolvimento de uma realização no espaço de estados para bancos de filtros wavelet, em que há a presença explícita de parâmetros que podem ser livremente ajustados mantendo as propriedades de reconstrução perfeita e ortonormalidade. ... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Doutor

Valutamarknaden är världens största marknad och en nödvändig del av dagens globala samhälle, som gör det möjligt för företag att göra affärer i olika valutor och mellan olika gränser. Marknaden utgör en stor handelsplattform för både små och stora aktörer, för vilka det är viktigt att prognostisera valutakurser med gott resultat. Att modellera finansiella instrument i form av tidsserier är en av de vanligaste investeringsstrategierna och dess användningsområde sträcker sig från valutamarknaden till bland annat aktiemarknaden och råvarumarknaden. I denna uppsats undersöks fyra olika statistiska metoder för att modellera valutakursen Euro-US Dollar givet historisk data, och prognoser görs med de framtagna modellerna. Dessa metoder är slumpvandring, ARIMA, ARIMA-GARCH och VAR. Vidare undersöks för den dynamiska VAR-modellen hur valutamarkanden påverkar, och blir påverkad av, långa och korta räntan. Resultaten visar att ARIMA(3,1,2) förklarar valutakursen bäst medan VAR(2) med valutakursen och skillnaden mellan långa räntor som ingående variabler ger de bästa prediktionerna. / The foreign exchange market is the world’s largest market and is an essential part of the global society of today. The FX market enables companies to trade with different currencies across country borders. It is also a large trade-platform for both big and small financial actors, who greatly benefit from the advantages of good predictions. Modeling of financial instruments is one of the most commonly used investment strategies and its area of application ranges from the FX market to markets suchas the stock market and the commodity market. In this paper, four different statistical models are used to model the currency pair Euro-US Dollar. These methods are random walk, ARIMA, ARIMA-GARCH and VAR. Besides investigating which method that gives the best forecasts, the method that best describes the training datais also found. Furthermore, for the dynamic VAR model, it is explored how the FX market affects, and is affected by, the long term and short term interest. The results show that ARIMA(3,1,2) is the best at describing the exchange rate while VAR(2) with the exchange rate and the difference between long term interests as variables gives the best predictions.

Submitted by Karla Malafaia (karlamalafaia@gmail.com) on 2013-02-26T23:31:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Karla_Malafaia_VF_posbanca.pdf: 730119 bytes, checksum: 82ceecb815ca22f5f1e5fee680caf839 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão (vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2013-02-27T13:25:04Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Karla_Malafaia_VF_posbanca.pdf: 730119 bytes, checksum: 82ceecb815ca22f5f1e5fee680caf839 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-02-27T13:29:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Karla_Malafaia_VF_posbanca.pdf: 730119 bytes, checksum: 82ceecb815ca22f5f1e5fee680caf839 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-01-29 / Este trabalho se propõe a testar e quantificar a importância do investimento de longo prazo, captado pela série de desembolsos da linha BNDES Finem, na produção industrial brasileira. Através dos modelos de causalidade de Granger e Função resposta ao impulso, podemos verificar as respostas acumuladas ao longo de três anos da linha Finem a choques positivos de um desvio padrão nas variáveis inflação, produção industrial, spread, e, da mesma forma um choque na variável Finem com resposta nas variáveis acima descritas. Além disso, é possível identificar a importância do BNDES como um ator anticíclico em períodos de crise como na economia brasileira. Como resultado, encontramos que apesar dos desembolsos Finem não Granger causarem a produção industrial brasileira, se testadas em conjunto com dados de inflação e a diferença entre a Selic e a TJLP rejeita-se a hipótese nula de não causalidade a 1% de significância. Já os testes de funções de resposta ao impulso indicam que a taxa de crescimento da produção industrial tem resposta positiva a um choque de desvio padrão nos desembolsos de Finem. Contudo, se testada em conjunto um choque no Finem apesar de impactar positivamente a produção industrial acaba pressionando a inflação. / This work is to test and quantify the importance of a long-term investment captured by the series of disbursements of BNDES Finem line in brazilian industrial production. Through Granger causality and impulse-response function, it was possible to check the Finem line accumulated answers along three years to positive shocks of a standard deviation on the variables inflation, industrial production, spread, and a shock on Finem variable with answer on the previous described variables. Furthermore, it's possible to identify the BNDES's importance as a countercyclical tool in crisis period as in brazilian economy. As a result, we found that despite causing the brazilian industrial production, if the no Granger Finem's disbursements are tested with inflation data and the difference between Selic and TJLP, the null hypothesis of no causality at 1% of significance is rejected. Yet, the tests of impulse-response function indicate that the industrial production growth rate has positive answer to a shock of standard deviation on Finem's disbursements. However, despite impacting the industrial production positevely, it pressures the inflation if it's tested with a shock on Finem.

This paper considers the linkages between output growth and output volatility for the sample of G7 countries over the period 1958M2-2011M7, thereby paying particular attention to spillovers within and between countries. Using the VAR-based spillover index approach by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), we identify several empirical regularities: i) output growth and volatility are highly intertwined, with spillovers taking place into all four directions; ii) the importance of spillovers has increased after the mid 1980s and reached unprecedented levels during the recent financial and economic crisis; iii) the US has been the largest transmitter of output and volatility shocks to other countries. Generalized impulse response analyses point to moderate growth-growth spillovers and sizable volatility-volatility spillovers across countries, suggesting that volatility shocks quintuplicate in the long run. The cross-variable effects turn out negative: volatilty shocks lead to lower economic growth, growth shocks tend to reduce output volatility. Our findings underline the increased vulnerability of the G7 countries to destabilizing shocks and their detrimental effects on economic growth, which are sizeably amplified through international spillover effects and the associated repercussions. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Globalization provoked in financial markets by means stock exchanges an interchange among the markets over the world. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship of the ten major main economic index of the world represented in New York (DJIA, S&P500 e Nasdaq), Tokyo (NIKKEI 225), London (FSTE 100), São Paulo (IBOV), Shanghai (SSE180), Paris (CAC-40), Frankfurt (DAX-30) and Buenos Aires (Merval) and looking for its co-integration, to demonstrate the behavior of these indexes and the long run equilibrium, from January of 2010 to March of 2011. To investigate the equilibrium and the long rum behavior the error correction model was used jointly with co-integration test and impulse response based on Cholesky decomposition. The results of this study show that the index of stock markets has long term equilibrium, and American markets, Argentina and English showed a strong influence over other markets. With this research we can infer that a relationship exists between the stock markets under study, confirming that the economy in a country can influence the others. In this sense, the contribution of this study, given this range of discussions involving the interconnection of economies with respect to trades made on the stock exchanges, was to show the relationships and influences in the world. / A internacionalização somada à abertura dos mercados financeiros transformou as economias antes fechadas em economias abertas, provocou um intercâmbio entre as economias mundiais por meio das bolsas de valores. O objetivo deste estudo é examinar a relação entre os dez principais índices econômicos do mundo, sendo eles: Nova York (DJIA, S&P500 e Nasdaq), Tóquio (Nikkei 225), Londres (FSTE 100), São Paulo (IBOV), Shangai (SSE180), Paris (CAC), Frankfurt (DAX-30) e Bueno Aires (Merval), por meio da análise de co-integrações para demonstrar o comportamento desses índices e seus equilíbrios no período de janeiro de 2010 a março de 2011. Para investigar e verificar o comportamento em longo prazo, foi utilizado o modelo de correção de erros e teste de impulso-resposta baseado na decomposição de Cholesky. Os resultados deste estudo mostram que existe equilíbrio em longo prazo entre os índices do mercado de ações. Os mercados americano, argentino e inglês mostraram forte influência sobre os demais mercados. Com esta pesquisa, verifica-se que existe uma relação entre os mercados de ações estudados, confirmando que a economia de um país influencia as demais. A contribuição deste estudo é verificar a assertiva das discussões atuais sobre a dependência das economias mundiais com as negociações por meio da bolsa de valores.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Wayne Nafziger / This dissertation constructs three empirical essays. The first essay illustrates the causality on the relationship between output (GDP) growth and exports. By using the Modified Wald (MWald) test we observe unidirectional causality from exports to GDP. More specifically, for the robustness we use a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) model and the Generalized Impulse Response Function Analysis (GIRA). The VECM and the GIRA yield bidirectional causality between exports and GDP, which weakly supports the unidirectional result of the to MWald test. Meanwhile, we confirm that there is structure break by using the structural break test. These results are plausible and consistent with the expectations of our study for the Export Led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH). However, compared with previous studies on the ELGH for Korea, our results are different. Other studies show a bidirectional causality relationship but this study only has unidirectional causality. These differences may be caused from different observation data, various variables, and use of different econometric methodologies. Also, model selection and omitting variables can also significantly change the results of causality testing. The second essay investigates a degree of competition between Korea's and China's exports in the U.S. market by using the substitute elasticity on a simple demand model. The market share of Korean exports has been decreasing while that of China's has been increasing. The results of this study are as follows. First, we find that Korea has a dominant market share of only goods group code 27 in commodity groups over that of China, otherwise having China's dominant market shares over those of Korea for other export sections by using historical trade data. Second, most estimates of substitute elasticity between both countries' exports in the U.S. market are small (inelastic). However, 61 (apparel articles and accessories, knit or crochet), 62 (apparel articles and accessories, not knit etc) and 85 (electric machinery etc, sound equipments, TV equipment, parts) commodity groups' substitute elasticities are large (elastic) and are competitive in the U.S. market compared with those of China. A small value of the elasticity of substitution may be due to an identification problem for a simple standard model as well as measurement errors in prices as a unit value in this study. So, in order to avoid problems such as these, we may need to use appropriate instrumental or proxy variables in the simple standard model, which highly correlate with the independent (unit price) variables and are uncorrelated with measurement error terms. In practice, it is not easy to find good instrumental variables. The final essay evaluates the roles of price and income as important factors that affect Korea's exports by using the most recent monthly data. By using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach we find the long-run relationship of variables and estimate the long-run price and income elasticities. However, the estimates of these long-run elasticities are statistically insignificant. This may be due to some misspecifications or measurement errors in our model. Meanwhile, due to the existence of the long-run relationship between variables, we construct the Error Correction Model (ECM) in order to observe the short-run dynamics of the elasticities. Specifically, we add a dummy variable into our export demand model to achieve more efficient estimations since the dummy variable reflects a shock in Korea's export; Korea's economic crisis in 1997. In contrast to the long-run elasticity, we find that the short-run elasticities' estimates are more statistically significant. When we use the structure break test to check the structural stability of Korea's export demand, we find that there is no structural break point of 1997. Therefore, a shock of Korea's economic crisis in 1997 might not significantly affect Korea's export demand in a given sample. However, the Information Technology (IT) bubble of the world economy in 2001 and the entry of Korea into the OECD had triggered an increase in Korea's export demand due to existing structural break points of both events. In addition, we find that income elasticities are larger than price elasticities in the short run. This implies that income has more of an impact than that of price for the export demand model in the short run. This also implies that the change of Korea's exports in the short run is more sensitive to changes in foreign income (industrial production) compared with that of price (exchange rate). An interesting result, thus, is that Korea's exports in the short run may have higher export performance on income than that of price (exchange rate). This might be a consequence of the dependence of an increase in foreign income in recent years. In recent years, developing countries have greatly increased their economic growth compared with that of developed countries and Korea's exports have increased into these developing countries. Thus, we confirm that an increase in Korea's exports is mainly affected by income compared with price, specifically in the short run by using recent data.