[pt] Desenvolvimento sustentável e emissões de dióxido carbono têm sido amplamente debatido no setor de óleo e gás, que desenvolve planos para reduzir a emissão deste gás em suas operações. Movimentos nesse sentido são influenciados pelos compromissos assumidos no Acordo de Paris que limita o aumento da temperatura global em até 2 graus Celsius pela redução de emissão de gases de efeito estufa (GEE). Além disso, recentes manifestações de fundos de investimentos para que organizações tenham ações de proteção ao meio ambiente indicam ser necessária a preparação das empresas brasileiras para mapear as emissões de GEE em toda a sua cadeia de valor. É objetivo deste trabalho contribuir para que iniciativas de redução de emissão de GEE sejam incluídas em processos licitatórios de projetos de investimento de capital. O estudo foca em projetos de infraestrutura logística e apoio a áreas industriais, especificamente na execução de serviços de construção e montagem de forma a dar materialidade às iniciativas de sustentabilidade ambiental da área de gestão e implantação de empreendimentos. Lançando mão de um estudo de caso, a documentação referente a quatro oportunidades de contrato de construção e montagem de obras de infraestrutura e de apoio a áreas industriais abertas ao mercado brasileiro foi avaliada à luz de critérios levantados na literatura para identificar iniciativas de redução de emissões de GEE durante a fase de construção. Entrevistas com profissionais experientes em gestão e implantação de empreendimentos desse tipo, observação direta da preparação da documentação para contratação de serviços para dois empreendimentos em fase de projeto e revisão de documentos de arquivo e dados corporativos compuseram o estudo. Esta análise permitiu compreender que algumas iniciativas já são encontradas sob a forma de requisitos contratuais com vistas à eficiência energética, minimização de custos e maximização de produtividade associados ao uso de equipamentos e máquinas emissores de GEE e podem ser amadurecidas no cenário da organização estudada, recomendando-se para isso um guia para incorporação de iniciativas de sustentabilidade ambiental com foco em redução de emissão de GEE aos processos de contratação de serviços de construção e montagem de projetos de infraestrutura logística e de apoio às áreas industriais. / [en] Sustainable development and carbon dioxide emissions have been widely debated in the oil and gas sector, which is developing plans to reduce the emission of this gas in its operations. Movements in this direction are influenced by the commitments made in the Paris Agreement limiting the increase in global temperature by up to 2 degrees Celsius by reducing the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG). Also, recent manifestations of investment funds demanding organizations to take actions to protect the environment, mean a call to prepare Brazilian companies to outline GHG emissions throughout their value chain. The objective of this work is to contribute to the inclusion of initiatives to reduce GHG emissions in bidding processes for capital investment projects. The study focuses on logistics infrastructure and support for industrial areas projects, specifically in the execution of construction and assembly services to give materiality to the environmental sustainability initiatives in management and implementation of projects. Using a case study, the documentation related to four contract opportunities for the construction and assembly of infrastructure and offsite areas available in the Brazilian market was evaluated in the light of criteria raised in the literature to identify initiatives to reduce emissions of GHG during the construction phase. Interviews with experienced professionals in the management and implementation of projects of this type, direct observation of the preparation of the documentation for procurement process for two projects in the design phase, and review of archival documents and corporate data comprised the study. This analysis allowed us to understand that some initiatives are already found in the form of contractual requirements with a view to energy efficiency, minimizing costs, and maximizing productivity associated with the use of GHG-emitting equipment and machines and can be developed in the scenario of the studied organization, recommending to this end, a guide for incorporating environmental sustainability initiatives with a focus on reducing GHG emissions into the processes for procuring construction services and assembling of logistics infrastructure and offsite projects.

Infrastructure projects frequently exceed their budgets in both time and cost, which often burdens the taxpayers. A significant percentage of these projects are neither complex nor unique, where the contract sum is a fraction of the contract sum of known megaprojects however has a higher percentage of cost overruns. The purpose of this study is to identify the cause, particularly the explanation behind these small and uncomplicated infrastructure projects' time and cost overruns, and to propose methods to avoid this wastage of taxpayer money. To achieve this purpose, a qualitative case study has been conducted within the scope of the Swedish Transport Administration's (Trafikverket) Investment division in the Eastern region in Uppsala, with a focus on pedestrian and bicycle paths. Empirical data has been gathered using Trafikverket's tools for deviation management, and semi-structured interviews were conducted with forecasters at Trafikverket's Investment division in Uppsala. A literature review has been made and were used to better interpret the empirical results. The identified causes are manifold but can be summarized as legal, political, and bureaucratic obstacles, communication issues, working methods, lack of experience and bad luck. The explanations for time and cost overruns can solely be attributed to the phenomenon of optimism bias, as this encompasses the forecaster's role as a decision maker in the project and the extent to which they could anticipate emerging situations. To mitigate optimism bias, the method of reference class forecasting is proposed. Furthermore, it is suggested to Trafikverket to reconsider the intervals of forecasting to be reviewed and adjusted according to the industry's way of setting forecasts on time. In conclusion, this study states that this is an important topic for future research in cost overruns in infrastructure projects. The recommendation is to focus on small and uncomplicated infrastructure projects. In addition, research must find the explanations for the causes of cost overruns before addressing the problem with appropriate methods.

Stockholm is one of the fastest growing conurbations in Europe, to accommodate for the increased population and urban growth, the current subway system needs to be extended. Appropriately, a joint initiative regarding housing and infrastructure development was signed in January 2014 by the Swedish government, Stockholm County Council and the afflicted municipalities Stockholm, Solna, Nacka and Järfälla. The joint initiative, the 2013 Stockholm negotiation, presented an extension of the current subway system with a total length of 19,6 km and 11 new stations in Stockholm, Solna, Nacka and Järfälla. Large-scale infrastructure projects often suffer from cost and time overruns. The Stockholm subway construction is no exception and has since the project started collected a delay equivalent of five years for Järfälla and Nacka, and a cost overrun of SEK 9,3 billion. The aim of this thesis is to objectively identify the critical delay factors of the subway tunnel construction in Stockholm and unveil the delay implication on property developers with housing projects in the adjacent areas to the new stations. The thesis will be limited to mainly focus on the extension to Järfälla and Nacka. To investigate the research questions, a systematic integration of quantitative and qualitative data has been collected through literature reviews, 9 interviews with the client, designers, consultants and a survey with 13 property developers. This thesis has identified one critical delay factor, linked to the poor project performance regarding the time overruns. With support from the literature review, interviews and surveys, the observed delay can be described as a consequence of political-economic explanations. The cause for the delay is rooted in the inaccurate estimations and unrealistic expectations presented in the 2013 Stockholm negotiation. Thus, the project delay is to be categorized as non- acceptable, due to a five-year prolonged time plan. Additional delay factors have beenidentified but are not to be viewed as critical. This thesis has also identified a general frustrationamongst the developers in Järfälla and Nacka as they have perceived negative implications as a consequence of the delay of the subway extension. / Stockholm är en av de snabbast växande storstadsregionerna i Europa och för att tillgodose den ökade tillväxten behöver regionen utveckla sin infrastruktur och kollektivtrafik. I januari 2014 undertecknades en överenskommelse, avseende utveckling av bostäder och infrastruktur, mellan regeringen, Stockholm Läns Landsting, Stockholm- och Solna stad, Nacka samt Järfälla kommun. Avtalet benämns som 2013 års Stockholmsförhandling och omfattar en utbyggnad om 11 nya tunnelbanestationer i Stockholm, Solna, Nacka och Järfälla, med en total spårlängd om 19,6 km.  Stora infrastrukturprojekt har historiskt sett blivit försenade och haft budgetöverskridande projektkostnader. Tunnelbaneutbyggnaden mot Järfälla och Nacka har båda blivit försenade med fem år samt överskridit budgeten med totalt 9,3 miljarder kronor. Syftet med denna masteruppsats är att objektivt identifiera de kritiska faktorer som orsakat förseningen av projektet samt redogöra för de konsekvenser som förseningen har orsakat för de bostadsutvecklare med projekt i områdena där de nya stationerna är planerade. Uppsatsen har avgränsats till att enbart skildra utbyggnaden mot Järfälla och Nacka. För att besvara studiens frågeställningar har kvalitativ och kvantitativ data integrerats genom litteraturstudier, intervjuer med 9 nyckelpersoner inom projektet, samt via en enkätundersökning med 13 fastighetsbolag, verksamma i Järfälla och Nacka.  Uppsatsen har identifierat en faktor som ligger till grund för att projektet inte presterat enligt projektets tid- och kostnadsmål. Faktorn har sitt ursprung i de felaktiga och orealistiska beräkningar som presenterades i 2013 års Stockholmsförhandling. Ytterligare förseningsfaktorer har identifierats, men är inte att anses som kritiska eftersom de inte haft en betydande inverkan på projektet och dess färdigställande. Förseningen av projektet är att kategorisera som ej acceptabel med hänsyn till dess uppkomst och omfattning. Mot den bakgrundsdata som samlats in genom litteraturstudier, intervjuer och enkätundersökningar kan förseningen härledas som en konsekvens av politisk-ekonomiska orsakssamband. Uppsatsens resultat visar även på att förseningen orsakat flera negativa konsekvenser för de fastighetsbolag som är verksamma i Järfälla och Nacka, vilket har skapat ett generellt missnöje gentemot projektets beställarorganisation.

Luftverkehrsprognosen stellen ein wichtiges Instrument dar, die Luftverkehrsinfrastruktur zu beeinflussen. Hinter vielen der Projekte, die von Luftverkehrsprognosen begleitet werden, stehen Interessen. Dies gilt insbesondere für Ausbauvorhaben von Flughäfen, die von eindeutigen Zielen und Wünschen getragen werden. Die Gutachter, die im Rahmen solcher Ausbauvorhaben tätig werden, sind der Gefahr ausgesetzt, beeinflusste Prognosen zu erstellen. Die Art und Intensität dieser Beeinflussung sowie die Methodik dieser Analysen sind Gegenstand dieses Aufsatzes. Zunächst wurden neuere Ergebnisse der OECD und EU erarbeitet und denen der Flughafenstudien gegenübergestellt. Nachfolgend wurde die Intensität der Beeinflussung auf Grundlage einer eigenen Untersuchung analysiert. Dabei wurden politische Entscheidungsträger im Rhein-Main-Gebiet nach Ihrer Verwendung von Studien und deren Ergebnisse befragt. Die Impact Study, als häufigste Forschungsmethodik, wurde in ihre Bestandteile zerlegt und mit der Full Cost-Benefit-Analyse, welche die durch die FAA empfohlene Methode ist, verglichen. Grundsätzlich sind solche Gutachten meist externe Analysen aus privatwirtschaftlicher Hand, die einerseits im Auftrag von regionalen Entscheidungsträgern, aber andererseits auch im Auftrag von Flughafen- und Fluggesellschaften angefertigt wurden. Die Unabhängigkeit der Prognosen ist damit gefährdet. Auf Grundlage der (neutralen) OECD- und EU-Ergebnisse zeigte sich, dass etwaige regionale Wirtschaftsimpulse und damit einhergehendes Beschäftigungswachstum durch erhöhten Flugverkehr nicht zu finden sind. Die kritische Analyse von „bezahlten Studien“ ist demnach von Bedeutung. Die Mehrzahl der politischen Amts- und Entscheidungsträger in Deutschland trifft allerdings Entscheidungen auf Basis keiner oder ausschließlich nicht-neutraler, bezahlter Auftragsstudien. Historisch betrachtet ist dies kein Novum. Bereits in den 60er Jahren kann man solche Studien und Entscheidungen nachweisen. Bezüglich des Forschungsdesign zeigte sich, dass Impact-Studien kaum für zur Beurteilung des Luftverkehrs geeignet sind. Sie beziehen die relevanten Effekte nur teilweise in ihre Berechnungen ein. Es wurde eine Reihe von systematischen Fehlern identifiziert. Die FAA-Richtlinien in den USA für methodisch korrekte Studien greifen nur wenig. Für weitere Forschung sehen wir die wichtige Aufgabe, die Methodik der Full Cost-Benefit-Analyse für die Prognose möglicher Effekte zur Anwendung zu bringen. / Aviation traffic forecasts and airport analyses are important instruments which influence decisions on aviation related infrastructure. Behind many of such infrastructure projects, which are supported by forecast analyses, one finds political interests. This is especially the case for aviation projects, such as infrastructure enlargement projects of airports, which are motivated by distinct goals and desires. Referees who act within this framework are exposed to the risk of producing biased results. The form and degree of intensity of such influence and manipulation, as well as the methodology of such forecast analyses, are the subject of this working paper. To begin with, newer research results by the OECD and the EU have been formulated and further compared to results of studies commissioned by airport operators. Subsequently, the degree of intensity of such influence has been analysed on the basis of our own research. A survey was thereby produced, investigating the application of neutral and non-neutral studies in the decision-making processes of the public administration in the Rhein-Main-area. Impact studies, which are currently the most used method, have been segmented and compared with studies using full cost-benefit-analysis, the recommended method by the FAA. With regard to these results, it can be argued that most forecast analyses are produced by private consultancies, by order of public entities but also by order of airport operators. The independence of such research and its results is therefore endangered. Recent OECD and EU research results have shown that eventual effects, such as regional economic stimulus and employment growth, are absent. Thus, care in the application of study results in this field is necessary. However, the majority of policy makers (in Germany) unfortunately base their decisions mostly on non-neutral studies. Historically seen, this is not a novelty. Regarding the research design, impact studies are hardly suitable for airport studies. Further, it can be shown that impact studies incorporate mostly only non-negative items in their cash flow calculations, compared to full cost-benefit-analyses which incorporate all relevant items. A number of systematic flaws are further identified. The regulation-guidelines by the FAA, which demand to incorporate all items, have had little impact on the research design of airport studies in the US so far. The promotion and fostering of full cost-benefit-analyses is necessary to lift the quality of airport studies.

Cette thèse analyse les tendances mondiales dans le financement de grands projets d'infrastructure dans le secteur des transports, en identifiant les caractéristiques distinctives du financement dans les pays développés et en développement. Un nouveau mécanisme de financement est proposé dans le contexte de contraintes budgétaires strictes grâce à l'utilisation d'un certain nombre d'effets économiques indirects découlant de l'amélioration de l'accessibilité des différents territoires en matière de transport. Comme le sujet de l'analyse, il y avait un projet de la construction d'un chemin de fer à grande vitesse en Russie Moscou-Kazan. / This paper analyzes global trends in financing large infrastructure projects in the transport sector, identifying the distinctive features of financing in developed and developing countries. A new financing mechanism is proposed in the context of strict budgetary constraints through the use of a number of indirect economic effects arising from improved transport accessibility of individual territories. As the subject of the analysis, there was a project of the construction of a high-speed railway in Russia Moscow-Kazan.

[pt] O Brasil, país pioneiro na implantação do BRT, possui alguns corredores com prioridade para serviços de transporte coletivo por ônibus. O sistema BRT no Rio de Janeiro começou a ser desenvolvido há tempos, mas ficou parado por fatores externos até princípio do ano 2021. A partir dessa data, o seu desenvolvimento foi retomado com uma perspectiva diferente para não cometer os mesmos erros do passado. O novo modelo pretende eliminar o risco de demanda, assim como fazer a separação entre fornecimento e operação dos equipamentos, permitindo a participação de atores especializados. Portanto, neste trabalho pretende determinar a viabilidade do novo modelo implementado do sistema BRT pela perspectiva financeira. Foi feito uma pesquisa geral sobre os principais incentivos governamentais, as características dos BRT e o conhecimento acumulado em diferentes países para a avaliação do modelo de negócio e contrato desenvolvido pela Prefeitura. Além disso foram analisados os fluxos de caixa através dos principais indicadores financeiros. Os resultados mostram que do ponto de vista financeiro o projeto é rentável e lucrativo. O novo modelo permite também uma melhoria na eficiência do sistema de transporte público na cidade e o aumento da satisfação do usuário. A principal contribuição do trabalho é o estudo qualitativo brindando uma comparação entre as diferentes experiências internacionais neste âmbito para conhecer os aspectos favoráveis que se possam ajustar a realidade brasileira da cidade do Rio de Janeiro. / [en] Brazil is a pioneer in the implementation of BRT and has some corridors with priority for public transport services by bus. The BRT system in Rio de Janeiro began to be developed many years ago but was put on hold due to external factors until early 2021, when its development was resumed with a different perspective so as not to make the same mistakes as in the past. The new model intends to eliminate demand risk, as well as implement the separation between supply and operation of the equipment, allowing the inclusion of specialized actors. Therefore, this work intends to determine the feasibility of the new implemented model of the BRT system from a financial perspective. A general survey was carried out on the main government incentives, the characteristics of BRT and the knowledge accumulated in different countries for the evaluation of the business model and contract developed. In addition, cash flow analysis was done using the main financial indicators. The results indicate that from a financial perspective the project is profitable and profitable for the investment. The new model also allows for an improvement in the efficiency of the public transport system in the city and an increase in user satisfaction. The main contribution of the work is the qualitative study providing a comparison between the different international experiences in this field to know the favorable aspects that can adjust to the Brazilian reality of the city of Rio de Janeiro.

司法院釋字第520號解釋於理由書指出：「基於法治國原則，縱令實質正當亦不可取代程序合法」，即一語道出程序正義之重要性。 民間參與公共建設具專業性、複雜性及高風險性、隔代性、利益衝突等特性，在政府與民間合作理念的推動下，法律規定模式已呈現由「條件式」的模式轉向「目的式」模式，致使政府合作對象的甄審（選）成為一種高度專業趨向之判斷，並且可能陷於「決策於未知之中」的困境。民間參與公共建設的推動上，除技術層面之實體審查標準外，實應認真思考面對決策的程序問題，藉由程序之提升，用以補足實體規範的不足。據此，有關引進民間參與公共建設之法規，甄審程序選出的最佳締約對象、最優申請案件或最優申請人「是否即屬適當」，應思考甄審（或評選）程序與組織設計，是否妥適。 本文擬由正當法律程序於美國及日本之發展出發，藉以了解其規範基礎與發展情形，並分析我國司法實務有關正當法律程序原則之解釋，理解我國對於正當法律程序之內涵與要求。其後聚焦行政實務上經常引用作為民間參與公共建設案件辦理依據之獎參條例、採購法及促參法，就其甄審、評選或評審程序與爭議處理程序檢視正當法律程序實踐情形。 本於基本權保障意旨及法律承認權利之保障，基本上本文認同至少應有一最低限度之保障（即聽證權）。至於其他要求為何？本於民間參與公共建設之興建或營運，涉及政府有限資源之分配及申請人(營業自由、契約自由)與使用者（生命、身體、財產）之基本權保障相關，應可由司法院釋字第384號解釋及釋字第709號解釋推導出「組織」要求，而其他如公正作為(迴避、禁止程序外接觸)、受告知權、說明理由及資訊公開，亦正是落實組織適法與聽證權，所不可或缺之要素。

Luftverkehrsprognosen stellen ein wichtiges Instrument dar, die Luftverkehrsinfrastruktur zu beeinflussen. Hinter vielen der Projekte, die von Luftverkehrsprognosen begleitet werden, stehen Interessen. Dies gilt insbesondere für Ausbauvorhaben von Flughäfen, die von eindeutigen Zielen und Wünschen getragen werden. Die Gutachter, die im Rahmen solcher Ausbauvorhaben tätig werden, sind der Gefahr ausgesetzt, beeinflusste Prognosen zu erstellen. Die Art und Intensität dieser Beeinflussung sowie die Methodik dieser Analysen sind Gegenstand dieses Aufsatzes. Zunächst wurden neuere Ergebnisse der OECD und EU erarbeitet und denen der Flughafenstudien gegenübergestellt. Nachfolgend wurde die Intensität der Beeinflussung auf Grundlage einer eigenen Untersuchung analysiert. Dabei wurden politische Entscheidungsträger im Rhein-Main-Gebiet nach Ihrer Verwendung von Studien und deren Ergebnisse befragt. Die Impact Study, als häufigste Forschungsmethodik, wurde in ihre Bestandteile zerlegt und mit der Full Cost-Benefit-Analyse, welche die durch die FAA empfohlene Methode ist, verglichen. Grundsätzlich sind solche Gutachten meist externe Analysen aus privatwirtschaftlicher Hand, die einerseits im Auftrag von regionalen Entscheidungsträgern, aber andererseits auch im Auftrag von Flughafen- und Fluggesellschaften angefertigt wurden. Die Unabhängigkeit der Prognosen ist damit gefährdet. Auf Grundlage der (neutralen) OECD- und EU-Ergebnisse zeigte sich, dass etwaige regionale Wirtschaftsimpulse und damit einhergehendes Beschäftigungswachstum durch erhöhten Flugverkehr nicht zu finden sind. Die kritische Analyse von „bezahlten Studien“ ist demnach von Bedeutung. Die Mehrzahl der politischen Amts- und Entscheidungsträger in Deutschland trifft allerdings Entscheidungen auf Basis keiner oder ausschließlich nicht-neutraler, bezahlter Auftragsstudien. Historisch betrachtet ist dies kein Novum. Bereits in den 60er Jahren kann man solche Studien und Entscheidungen nachweisen. Bezüglich des Forschungsdesign zeigte sich, dass Impact-Studien kaum für zur Beurteilung des Luftverkehrs geeignet sind. Sie beziehen die relevanten Effekte nur teilweise in ihre Berechnungen ein. Es wurde eine Reihe von systematischen Fehlern identifiziert. Die FAA-Richtlinien in den USA für methodisch korrekte Studien greifen nur wenig. Für weitere Forschung sehen wir die wichtige Aufgabe, die Methodik der Full Cost-Benefit-Analyse für die Prognose möglicher Effekte zur Anwendung zu bringen. / Aviation traffic forecasts and airport analyses are important instruments which influence decisions on aviation related infrastructure. Behind many of such infrastructure projects, which are supported by forecast analyses, one finds political interests. This is especially the case for aviation projects, such as infrastructure enlargement projects of airports, which are motivated by distinct goals and desires. Referees who act within this framework are exposed to the risk of producing biased results. The form and degree of intensity of such influence and manipulation, as well as the methodology of such forecast analyses, are the subject of this working paper. To begin with, newer research results by the OECD and the EU have been formulated and further compared to results of studies commissioned by airport operators. Subsequently, the degree of intensity of such influence has been analysed on the basis of our own research. A survey was thereby produced, investigating the application of neutral and non-neutral studies in the decision-making processes of the public administration in the Rhein-Main-area. Impact studies, which are currently the most used method, have been segmented and compared with studies using full cost-benefit-analysis, the recommended method by the FAA. With regard to these results, it can be argued that most forecast analyses are produced by private consultancies, by order of public entities but also by order of airport operators. The independence of such research and its results is therefore endangered. Recent OECD and EU research results have shown that eventual effects, such as regional economic stimulus and employment growth, are absent. Thus, care in the application of study results in this field is necessary. However, the majority of policy makers (in Germany) unfortunately base their decisions mostly on non-neutral studies. Historically seen, this is not a novelty. Regarding the research design, impact studies are hardly suitable for airport studies. Further, it can be shown that impact studies incorporate mostly only non-negative items in their cash flow calculations, compared to full cost-benefit-analyses which incorporate all relevant items. A number of systematic flaws are further identified. The regulation-guidelines by the FAA, which demand to incorporate all items, have had little impact on the research design of airport studies in the US so far. The promotion and fostering of full cost-benefit-analyses is necessary to lift the quality of airport studies.