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In this essential guide to the past, present and future of bio-warfare, international security expert Malcolm Dando draws a wealth of ecperience and research to uncover the truth about the alarming failure of international community to place effective curbs on the use of this deadly weapon.

<p>For scholars of international relations, reputation for resolve - the belief that an actor will stand firm in future disputes - has served as a seminal explanation for the outcome of interstate crises. Scholars studying state reputation remain divided as to which characteristics of the state determine reputation for resolve. Recent scholarship questions this traditional state-centric view of international relations, indicating leaders can be as influential as states in international affairs. My dissertation investigates whether individual leaders can develop reputations for resolve independently from the states they serve. In doing so, my dissertation bridges the state-centric and leader-centric literatures, contributing to our understanding of both reputations for resolve and the impact of individual leaders on international politics. My theory focuses on reputation development as I examine which information decision-makers use to make assessments of resolve. As leaders are the primary arbiters of foreign policy and interact substantially with each other during international crises and negotiations, I conclude that leaders should be able to develop independent reputations for resolve based on their behavior while in office. I further theorize that, due to the ways in which individuals access and process information, a leader's early actions while in office will matter more in assessments of his/her resolve, making initial reputations difficult to change. </p><p> To test my theory against alternative hypotheses, I employ a multi-methods research design using experimental surveys, statistical duration analysis, and a historical case study. The experiments focus on the internal causal mechanisms by which individuals process information to make predictions of a leader's resolve. To test the external validity of my theory, I employ a duration analysis to examine how the resoluteness of a leader's response to a crisis helps prevent that leader from being a target of future crises. Finally, the case study uses process tracing methods to investigate the extent to which individual leaders develop reputations for resolve over time. Through these multiple methods, I find robust evidence that leaders do develop reputations for resolve independently from their state's reputation. The experiments indicate that leader behavior is influential on perceptions of resolve even when accounting for state-based characteristics. Furthermore, I find that participants are more likely to seek out and prioritize leader-based information. I also find that early perceptions of resolve have a significant impact on later perceptions. The duration analysis indicates that the resoluteness of a leader's behavior can affect his/her risk of future crisis onset. Finally, the case study shows that potential challenger leaders do take leader-based information into account when making assessments of resolve and that a leader's early behavior is particularly influential to the development of his/her reputation for resolve. Based on this evidence I conclude that leaders can develop reputations for resolve. These reputations are primarily based on a leader's statements and behavior, even when controlling for state-based variables, and are resistant to change once formed.</p> / Dissertation

This thesis utilizes social influence theory and computational tools to examine the disparate impact of positive and negative ties in nuclear weapons proliferation. The thesis is broadly in two sections: a simulation section, which focuses on government stakeholders, and a large-scale data analysis section, which focuses on the public and domestic actor stakeholders. In the simulation section, it demonstrates that the nonproliferation norm is an emergent behavior from political alliance and hostility networks, and that alliances play a role in current day nuclear proliferation. This model is robust and contains second-order effects of extended hostility and alliance relations. In the large-scale data analysis section, the thesis demonstrates the role that context plays in sentiment evaluation and highlights how Twitter collection can provide useful input to policy processes. It first highlights the results of an on-campus study where users demonstrated that context plays a role in sentiment assessment. Then, in an analysis of a Twitter dataset of over 7.5 million messages, it assesses the role of ‘noise’ and biases in online data collection. In a deep dive analyzing the Iranian nuclear agreement, we demonstrate that the middle east is not facing a nuclear arms race, and show that there is a structural hole in online discussion surrounding nuclear proliferation. By combining both approaches, policy analysts have a complete and generalizable set of computational tools to assess and analyze disparate stakeholder roles in nuclear proliferation.

[pt] O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar a política de defesa do Japão em um contexto diferente daquele que estimulou sua constituição no fim da Segunda Guerra Mundial. Para tal empresa, busco fazer um estudo histórico sobre o ambiente regional de segurança do Japão e suas conseqüências sobre as reformas institucionais no campo da segurança nacional desse país. Os fatores causais selecionados estão distribuídos nos âmbitos sistêmicos, regional e doméstico. O corte temporal deste trabalho é o período do pós- Guerra Fria, quando a fragmentação das ameaças transformou a segurança regional na Ásia Oriental. A orientação teórica adota o realismo neoclássico para uma compreensão mais ampla sobre as percepções de ameaças. Para tanto, analiso o caso das mudanças na política de defesa do Japão à luz da teoria da Balança de Ameaças, de Stephen Walt, especificamente aplicada nos dois principais casos de percepções de ameaças por parte do Japão: a instabilidade na Península Coreana e o crescimento econômico e militar da China. A hipótese principal deste trabalho sugere que as transformações no ambiente estratégico da Ásia Oriental após a Guerra Fria aliadas a um descontentamento com as respostas dadas pela política exterior japonesa em momentos de crises deram nova vida aos defensores do Japão enquanto “Estado Normal”. O incremento nas percepções das ameaças por parte dos líderes japoneses tem modificado a postura pacifista nipônica e o Japão passou a atuar de forma mais assertiva em assuntos de segurança. / [en] The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the policy of defense of Japan in a different context from that stimulated their formation at the end of World War II. For this goal, I intend to make a historical study on the regional security environment of Japan and its consequences on institutional reforms in the field of national security in Japan. The factors selected are distributed in the systemic, regional and domestic levels. The historical cutoff of this work is the period of the post-Cold War, when the fragmentation of the threats turned regional security in East Asia. The theoretical guidance adopts the neoclassical realism to a broader understanding on the perceptions of threats. To this end, I analyze the case of changes in defense policy in Japan using the theory of the balance of threats developed by Stephen Walt specifically applied in both cases leading to perceptions of threats power form the part of Japan: The instability in the Korean peninsula and economic and military growth of China. The main hypothesis of this work suggests that the changes in the strategic environment in East Asia after the Cold War allied to dissatisfaction with the answers given by the Japanese foreign policy in times of crisis have given new life to supporters in Japan as "Normal State." The increase in perceptions of the threats from the part of Japanese leaders has changed the pacifist niponic stance and Japan started to act more assertively in security matters.

[pt] Após o fim da Guerra Fria, as expectativas de paz mundial foram destruídas por uma série de violentos conflitos que forçaram policymakers e estudiosos das RI a voltarem suas atenções para três questões: o nacionalismo, a etnicidade e o genocídio. Essas questões estiveram presentes de forma bastante intensa nos conflitos ocorridos na Bósnia e provocaram a reconsideração do papel e da importância do Estado nação como forma de organização social e política.No presente trabalho, procuraremos mostrar como um conjunto de motivações político- estratégicas de alguns líderes e intelectuais sérvios conduziu o uso do nacionalismo e da etnicidade para o desenvolvimento de uma estratégia genocida cuja finalidade era a construção de um grande estado sérvio etnicamente homogêneo. Por fim, discutiremos o papel da comunidade internacional na proteção dos direitos humanos das vítimas da limpeza étnica na Bósnia e na solução do conflito. / [en] After the Cold War was over the expectations of world peace were destroyed by a series of violent conflicts which forced the policymakers and IR researchers to focus on three issues: nationalism, ethnicity and genocide. These issues were considerably present in the conflicts in Bosnia and provoked the reconsideration of the role and importance of the nation-state as a form of social and political organization. In the present work,we point out how a group of political strategic objectives of some Serb political leaders and intellectuals directed the use of nationalism and ethnicity to the development of a genocidal strategy which was aimed at the building of an expanded ethnically homogeneous Serb state. Conclusively, we consider the role of the international community in the protection of the victims of ethnic cleansing in Bosnia and in the solution of the conflicts.

Após os atentados terroristas de Onze de setembro de 2001 os Estados Falidos passaram a ser considerados uma das principais ameaças à paz e segurança internacional. A maior parte dos estudos sobre o tema argumenta que a melhor maneira para se lidar com esta ameaça são as chamadas operações de Nation-Building, lideradas por agentes externos e cujos objetivos principais são reconstruir as instituições políticas, promover eleições democráticas e consolidar uma economia de mercado no país alvo. Assim sendo, na primeira parte do trabalho, intitulada O Colapso, esta dissertação almeja analisar as características do conceito de Estado Falido à luz do caso do Afeganistão. Na segunda parte, intitulada A Reconstrução, ambicionamos entender o que são e como são levadas a cabo as operações de Nation- Building, analisando as missões lideradas pela ONU e pelos EUA e realizando um estudo da atual operação no Afeganistão. / After the September 11th, 2001 terrorist attacks, Failed States have been considered one of the greatest threats to peace and international security. The great majority of the studies about this theme argue that one of the best ways to cope with this threat are the so-called Nation-Building operations, leaded by external agents and whose main objectives are the reconstruction of political institutions, the promotion of elections and the consolidation of a marketoriented economy in the target country. Therefore, in the first part of this work, called The Collapse, this dissertation aims to analyze the characteristics of the Failed State concept through the Afghan case. In the second part, called The Reconstruction, we intend to understand what Nation-Building operations are and how they have been carried out, analyzing the missions leaded both by the UN and the United States and doing a case study over the current operation in Afghanistan.

Esta pesquisa tem como objeto de estudo a percepção de ameaça terrorista em São Paulo, no contexto dos Jogos Olímpicos Rio 2016. Os objetivos da pesquisa foram caracterizar a percepção da população de São Paulo em relação à ameaça terrorista e dimensionar a efetividade do programa governamental de sensibilização contra ameaça terrorista concebido em proveito da segurança durante os jogos olímpicos. Ao longo de seis meses, de fevereiro a julho de 2016, o autor integrou a equipe do programa e participou da capacitação de 4.287 (quatro mil duzentos e oitenta e sete) profissionais dos setores de turismo, segurança pública e defesa. A pesquisa adota o método do estudo de caso e a base de dados é composta por 1.109 (um mil cento e nove) formulários de pesquisa. Com base em 13 (treze) características do terrorismo extraídas das obras de Alex Schmid, David Rapoport e Martha Crenshaw, o pesquisador investiga a percepção de ameaça terrorista no grupo amostral, obtendo como resultado os seguintes elementos: fanatismo e/ou extremismo religioso (85,57%); violência física e/ou psicológica (62,23%); intimidação, medo e incerteza (60,90%); objetivos políticos (55,37%); uso das redes sociais (53,22%); planejamento (51,79%); estratégia (50,77%); indivíduos isolados (45,04%); grupos não estatais (37,56%); propaganda (36,34%); vítimas aleatoriamente escolhidas (35,41%); clandestinidade (33,98%); ação tática (17,60%). Quanto ao programa governamental de sensibilização contra ameaça terrorista, os resultados apontam um aumento de 34,31% (trinta e quatro vírgula trinta e um por cento) no índice de percepção dos concludentes do curso, indicando a efetividade do instrumento. / The object of this research is the perception of terrorist threat in São Paulo, in the context of the Olympic Games Rio 2016. The objectives of the research were to characterize the population\'s perception of the terrorist threat and to assess the effectiveness of the government\'s program of sensitization against terrorist threats designed to improve resilience during the Olympic Games. Over the course of six months, from February to July 2016, the author joined the program team and participated in the training of 4,287 ( four thousand two hundred and eighty-seven) professionals in the tourism, public security and defense sectors. The research adopts the case study method and the database is made up of 1,109 (one thousand one hundred and nine) research forms. Based on (13) thirteen characteristics of terrorism extracted from the works of Alex Schmid, David Rapoport and Martha Crenshaw, the researcher investigates the perception of terrorist threat in the sample group, resulting in the following elements: fanaticism and / or religious extremism (85 , 57%); physical and / or psychological violence (62.23%); intimidation, fear and uncertainty (60.90%); political objectives (55.37%); use of social networks (53.22%); planning (51.79%); strategy (50.77%); isolated individuals (45.04%); non-state groups (37.56%); advertising (36.34%); randomly selected victims (35.41%); clandestinely (33.98%); tactical action (17.60%). As for the government\'s program to raise awareness against terrorist threats, the results indicate a 34.31% (thirty-four point thirty-one percent) increase in the perception of the conclusive students of the course, indicating the effectiveness of the instrument.

Basé sur un engagement collectif qui a débuté en 2001, cette thèse se penche sur le rôle des États membres de l'Union européenne (UE) dans la stabilisation de l’Afghanistan pendant l'intervention militaire de 2001 à 2014. La thèse analyse les contributions nationales et collectives des Etats membres à la stabilisation et la sécurité nationale de l'Afghanistan, de la réforme du secteur de sécurité à la formation de l'armée et de la police, du maintien de la paix aux combats et aux initiatives diplomatiques. La thèse montre que le Etats membres ont joué un rôle important dans les prestations de sécurité, mais leur impact collectif est en grande partie le résultat de synergies entre des contributions nationales, et ces synergies ont été réalisées en dehors des dynamiques ou des politiques européennes. Le leadership américain a été un facteur important dans l’émergence d’un rôle européen collectif par défaut. La thèse avance également un argument théorique-conceptuel : Loin d'être un obstacle à un rôle européen de sécurité et de défense, l'absence d'une politique ou d'un projet européen a agi comme un important catalyseur de la convergence des comportements, une fois qu’un leadership américain pouvait être invoqué. Cette convergence de comportements en matière de sécurité et de défense a eu lieu en dépit de la grande divergence des cultures stratégiques entre les Etats membres. Elle a été réalisée à partir d’actions conjointes mais sélectives qui furent insérées dans le cadre du leadership américain. Une politique collective et européenne n’a pas été nécessaire pour réaliser ce rôle. / Based on a collective engagement that has lasted since 2001, this thesis looks at the role(s) of the EU Member States (MS) in the provision of security during the intervention in Afghanistan (2001-2014). It analyzes their national and collective contribution(s) to Afghanistan’s post-2001 national security and Security Sector Reform (SSR), from military and police training to peace keeping, war fighting and diplomatic initiatives. The dissertation shows the MS played an important role in security provision, but their collective impact was largely the result of synergies between national contributions that occurred outside of European dynamics or policy planning. US campaign leadership was an important enabler of this collective European role by default. The dissertation also advances a theoretical-conceptual argument: Far from being an impediment to a European role in security and defense, the absence of a European policy or project acted as an important enabler of behavioral convergence once a US lead could be relied upon. This behavioral convergence in security and defense occurred despite the great strategic cultural divergence between the MS. It consisted of, and was driven by, joined-up action on an opt-in/opt-out basis, while a collective European policy was not necessary.

A importância geopolítica da Amazônia para o Brasil há muito é destacada pelos militares, governantes, diplomatas e academia. A região amazônica ocupa cerca de 60% de território nacional e não pode ser esquecida ou subjugada na formulação de políticas públicas para defesa e desenvolvimento do país ou na composição das estratégias de inserção internacional do Brasil. Esse trabalho busca, a partir de uma postura multidisciplinar marcada pela conversa entre a Geografia e as Relações Internacionais, tentar explicar os motivos pelos quais a Amazônia hoje se coloca como uma prioridade para as políticas de defesa nacional e de que forma os governantes as articulam para que possam surtir efeito num cenário internacional que vislumbra ameaças difusas e multidimensionais. O papel do Calha Norte, do Sistema de Proteção da Amazônia (SIPAM) são analisados de forma a entender de que maneira as políticas internas de proteção e vigilância da Amazônia brasileira trabalham com os novos arranjos de segurança que se impõem na região. / The geopolitical importance of the Amazon to Brazil has long been highlighted by the military, politicians, diplomats and academics. The Amazon region covers about 60% of the national territory and cant be forgotten or subdued in the formulation of public policies for protection and development of the country or in the composition of the strategies of international insertion of Brazil. This paper seeks, from a multidisciplinary approach marked by the links between Geography and International Relations, try to explain the reasons why the Amazon stands as a priority for the national defense politics nowadays. Another important topic addressed in this paper is how the policy makers articulate these politics in a way they can be effective in a world scenario marked by diffuse and multidimensional threats. The role of Calha Norte Program and the Amazon Protection System (SIPAM) are analyzed in order to understand how the internal policies of protection and surveillance of the Brazilian Amazon work with the new security arrangements presents in the region.