Existing research suggests that when consumers encounter hybrid products or boundary-spanning products with attributes belonging to multiple categories, consumers tend to generate inferences based on only a single product category. Reliance on a single category for inferencing is termed as the “single category belief problem” which has been regarded as a vital marketing challenge because it leads consumers to underestimate the true utility of a hybrid product as certain product attributes are ignored. Our objective was to explore whether single category beliefs manifest in consumer choice for a hybrid product when strategically placed within varying contexts. The research used discrete choice experiment (DCE) to test hypotheses. Our research confirms that the single category belief is evident in consumer choice. We also found that the context the hybrid product is placed within has a major influence on what consumers preferred the most. Depending on the context a hybrid product was seen in had significant influence on how consumers evaluated product attributes and made purchase decisions. The findings for this research may be very beneficial for marketers.

Cette étude vise à mettre en lumière les différences et similarités existant entre les principales crises économiques et financières ayant frappé un échantillon de 21 pays avancés depuis 1981. Nous analyserons plus particulièrement la crise des subprimes que nous rapprocherons avec des épisodes antérieurs. Nous étudierons à la fois les années du déclenchement des turbulences (analyse typologique) ainsi que celles les précédant (prévision). Cette analyse sera fondée sur l’utilisation de la méthode CART (Classification And Regression Trees). Cette technique non linéaire et non paramétrique permet de prendre en compte les effets de seuil et les interactions entre variables explicatives de façon à révéler plusieurs contextes distincts explicatifs d’un même événement. Dans le cadre d‘un modèle de prévision, l’analyse des années précédant les crises nous indique que les variables à surveiller sont : la variation et la volatilité du cours de l’once d’or, le déficit du compte courant en pourcentage du PIB et la variation de l’openness ratio et enfin la variation et la volatilité du taux de change. Dans le cadre de l’analyse typologique, l’étude des différentes variétés de crise (année du déclenchement de la crise) nous permettra d’identifier deux principaux types de turbulence d’un point de vue empirique. En premier lieu, nous retiendrons les crises globales caractérisées par un fort ralentissement ou une baisse de l’activité aux Etats-Unis et une faible croissance du PIB dans les pays touchés. D’autre part, nous mettrons en évidence des crises idiosyncratiques propres à un pays donné et caractérisées par une inflation et une volatilité du taux de change élevées. / The aim of this thesis is to analyze, from an empirical point of view, both the different varieties of economic and financial crises (typological analysis) and the context’s characteristics, which could be associated with a likely occurrence of such events. Consequently, we analyze both: years seeing a crisis occurring and years preceding such events (leading contexts analysis, forecasting). This study contributes to the empirical literature by focusing exclusively on the crises in advanced economies over the last 30 years, by considering several theoretical types of crises and by taking into account a large number of both economic and financial explanatory variables. As part of this research, we also analyze stylized facts related to the 2007/2008 subprimes turmoil and our ability to foresee crises from an epistemological perspective. Our empirical results are based on the use of binary classification trees through CART (Classification And Regression Trees) methodology. This nonparametric and nonlinear statistical technique allows us to manage large data set and is suitable to identify threshold effects and complex interactions among variables. Furthermore, this methodology leads to characterize crises (or context preceding a crisis) by several distinct sets of independent variables. Thus, we identify as leading indicators of economic and financial crises: variation and volatility of both gold prices and nominal exchange rates, as well as current account balance (as % of GDP) and change in openness ratio. Regarding the typological analysis, we figure out two main different empirical varieties of crises. First, we highlight « global type » crises characterized by a slowdown in US economic activity (stressing the role and influence of the USA in global economic conditions) and low GDP growth in the countries affected by the turmoil. Second, we find that country-specific high level of both inflation and exchange rates volatility could be considered as evidence of « idiosyncratic type » crises.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:58:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 3674.pdf: 4771914 bytes, checksum: 5dd14583c2d833c9bb3c7f0ec784e9d4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-02-21 / Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais / This research attempted to study the issue of assessing the level of service for bicycles in Brazilian cities, with the ultimate aim of developing a bicycle level of service model that can be used in medium-sized Brazilian cities. The methodology used for model development began with the identification of attributes that can be used to describe the level of service for bicycles, followed by assessing the perceptions of individuals about the importance of the attributes. Among the methods available to measure the perceptions of individuals about the roadway characteristics related to bicycle transportation, it was chosen to use simulations (video based evaluation). The video was produced through a system in which a portable video camera was attached to the bicycle stern. To compensate for the exclusion of some attributes that could not be assessed through video (such as the sensation of heat, the cost of the bicycle, the health benefits, etc) the simulation method was combined with another method of perception analysis: questionnaires formulated based on the Likert scale. Data collection was performed in a case study in the cities of São Carlos and Rio Claro (São Paulo state), in several educational facilities. In total, 451 questionnaires were administered, 60 in the city of Rio Claro and the rest of them in the city of São Carlos. The results of field study were analyzed through methods of descriptive statistics and correlations, producing the following studies: questionnaires results, classification of participants into types of cyclists, the definition of a scale of acceptability to bicycle use and classification of participants in groups, according to this scale. The Bicycle Level of Service Model was calibrated using the FLOW variable, defined as the volume of motor vehicles divided by the effective width of the road, and the level of service grades resulting from the participants evaluation. The model was validated through cross-validation methodology. The model development resulted in a graphic that can be used to determine the probability of perceived level of service for flow values found on roadways. It was considered that the study reached its primary goal, providing a Bicycle Level of Service Model that can be used in medium-sized Brazilian cities. / A presente pesquisa buscou estudar o tema da avaliação do nível de serviço para bicicletas em cidades brasileiras, com o objetivo principal de desenvolver um modelo de nível de serviço para bicicletas possível de ser utilizado em cidades brasileiras de porte médio. A metodologia utilizada para o desenvolvimento do modelo teve início com a identificação dos atributos que podem ser utilizados para descrever o nível de serviço para bicicletas, seguida pela avaliação da percepção de indivíduos sobre a importância dos atributos. Dentre os métodos disponíveis para medir a percepção dos indivíduos sobre as características viárias relacionadas ao transporte cicloviário, definiu-se pela realização de simulações, ou seja, avaliação com base em vídeo. O vídeo foi elaborado por meio de um sistema no qual uma câmera de vídeo portátil foi acoplada ao guidão da bicicleta. Para compensar a exclusão de alguns atributos que não podem ser avaliados através do vídeo (como a sensação de calor, o custo da bicicleta, os benefícios para a saúde, etc.), o método da simulação foi combinado com outro método de análise da percepção: questionários formulados com base na escala Likert. A coleta de dados foi realizada em um estudo de caso nas cidades paulistas de São Carlos e Rio Claro, em diversas instituições de ensino. No total, 451 questionários foram aplicados, sendo 60 na cidade de Rio Claro e o restante na cidade de São Carlos. Os resultados da pesquisa de campo foram analisados através de métodos de análise estatística descritiva e correlacional, produzindo os seguintes estudos: resultados dos questionários; classificação dos participantes em tipos de ciclistas; definição de uma escala de aceitabilidade ao uso da bicicleta e a classificação dos participantes em grupos, de acordo com esta escala. O Modelo de Nível de Serviço para Bicicletas foi calibrado utilizando-se a variável FLUXO, definida como o volume de veículos motorizados dividido pela largura efetiva da via, e as medidas de nível de serviço provenientes da avaliação realizada pelos participantes da pesquisa. O modelo foi validado através da metodologia da validação cruzada. O desenvolvimento do modelo resultou em um gráfico que pode ser utilizado para determinar a probabilidade da percepção de nível de serviço para valores de fluxo encontrados nas vias. Considera-se que a pesquisa atingiu o seu objetivo principal, fornecendo um Modelo de Nível de Serviço para Bicicletas que pode ser utilizado em cidades brasileiras de porte médio.

Em ecologia, o comportamento dos animais é freqüentemente estudado para entender melhor suas preferências por diferentes tipos de alimento e habitat. O presente trabalho esta relacionado a este tópico, dividindo-se em três capítulos. O primeiro capitulo refere-se à estimação da função da probabilidade da seleção de recurso (RSPF) comparado com um modelo de escolha discreta (DCM) com uma escolha, usando as estatísticas qui-quadrado para obter as estimativas. As melhores estimativas foram obtidas pelo método DCM com uma escolha. No entanto, os animais não fazem a sua seleção baseados apenas em uma escolha. Com RSPF, as estimativas de máxima verossimilhança, usadas pela regressão logística ainda não atingiram os objetivos, já que os animais têm mais de uma escolha. R e o software Minitab e a linguagem de programação Fortran foram usados para obter os resultados deste capítulo. No segundo capítulo discutimos mais a verossimilhança do primeiro capítulo. Uma nova verossimilhança para a RSPF é apresentada, a qual considera as unidades usadas e não usadas, e métodos de bootstrapping paramétrico e não paramétrico são usados para estudar o viés e a variância dos estimadores dos parâmetros, usando o programa FORTRAN para obter os resultados. No terceiro capítulo, a nova verossimilhança apresentada no capítulo 2 é usada com um modelo de escolha discreta, para resolver parte do problema apresentado no primeiro capítulo. A estrutura de encaixe é proposta para modelar a seleção de habitat de 28 corujas manchadas (Strix occidentalis), assim como a uma generalização do modelo logit encaixado, usando a maximização da utilidade aleatória e a RSPF aleatória. Métodos de otimização numérica, e o sistema computacional SAS, são usados para estimar os parâmetros de estrutura de encaixe. / In ecology, the behavior of animals is often studied to better understand their preferences for different types of habitat and food. The present work is concerned with this topic. It is divided into three chapters. The first concerns the estimation of a resource selection probability function (RSPF) compared with a discrete choice model (DCM) using chi-squared to obtain estimates. The best estimates were obtained by the DCM method. Nevertheless, animals were not selected based on choice alone. With RSPF, the maximum likelihood estimates used with the logistic regression still did not reach the objectives, since the animals have more than one choice. R and Minitab software and the FORTRAN programming language were used for the computations in this chapter. The second chapter discusses further the likelihood presented in the first chapter. A new likelihood for a RSPF is presented, which takes into account the units used and not used, and parametric and non-parametric bootstrapping are employed to study the bias and variance of parameter estimators, using a FORTRAN program for the calculations. In the third chapter, the new likelihood presented in chapter 2, with a discrete choice model is used to resolve a part of the problem presented in the first chapter. A nested structure is proposed for modelling selection by 28 spotted owls (Strix occidentalis) as well as a generalized nested logit model using random utility maximization and a random RSPF. Numerical optimization methods and the SAS system were employed to estimate the nested structural parameters.

Cette thèse s'articule autour de deux thèmes : l'évaluation monétaire des biens environnementaux et l'innovation en environnement. Si ces deux volets sont traités séparément, ils s'attachent toutefois à contribuer à un objectif commun : la lutte contre le changement climatique. Cette thèse se décline en cinq chapitres. Le premier propose une introduction générale, qui présente les deux thèmes développés, ainsi que leur contribution au défi du changement climatique. En attribuant une valeur pécuniaire aux biens environnementaux, l'évaluation monétaire peut servir la décision publique, non seulement lors de la mise en œuvre de projets pro-environnementaux, mais aussi en aidant é évaluer les dommages causés à l'environnement. L'innovation environnementale peut encourager les transferts de technologies et une croissance plus verte, dans une volonté de développement durable. Les chapitres 2 et 3 s'intéressent aux expériences de choix, en vue d'évaluer le consentement-à-payer pour l'amélioration de la qualité de l'eau de rivières. A partir d'une enquête proposant aux résidents de choisir entre différentes options de gestion pour les rivières de leur voisinage, nous montrons dans le chapitre 2 que ces derniers sont disposés à payer pour une meilleure qualité de l'eau. Nous nous apercevons toutefois que plus de 20% des individus de notre échantillon adoptent un comportement de protestation, c'est-à-dire déclarent un consentement-à-payer nul alors même que leur valeur pour l'eau des rivières est positive. Dans le chapitre 3, nous recourons à un modèle logit emboîté, afin de prendre en compte ce type de comportement. Nous obtenons des consentements-à-payer plus élevés, signe que le modèle utilisé est mieux adapté pour traiter des données comportant des zéros de protestation. Les chapitres 4 et 5 étudient les déterminants de l'innovation en environnement. A partir de données sur les dépôts de brevets et de l'enquête d'opinion du forum économique mondial, le chapitre 4 s'intéresse à l'impact de politiques publiques sur l'innovation en matière de technologies propres dans les domaines de l'eau, de l'air et des déchets. Notre analyse met en évidence le rôle positif sur l'innovation en environnement de la capacité d'innovation globale d'un pays et de la rigueur de ses politiques environnementales. Le chapitre 5 étudie l'influence des collaborations pour la publication d'articles scientifiques sur l'innovation en matière d'énergie éolienne. Nous couplons notre base de données sur les brevets avec une base rassemblant de nombreuses références littéraires dans le domaine de la recherche scientifique. Nous montrons que les transferts de connaissance entre les pays membres et non membres de l'OCDE dans le domaine éolien contribuent à améliorer la capacité d'innovation des pays non membres de l'OCDE. / This dissertation is interested in two areas of the environmental economics field: monetary valuation of environmental goods and services and environmental innovation. Even if those two fields are studied separately in this dissertation, they both aim at contributing to a common objective: fight against climate change. This dissertation ranges into five chapters. The first one is a general introduction, which depicts the two fields of the dissertation and their relevance towards climate change. Environmental valuation serves public decision through monetary valuation of environmental goods. This is useful not only for the implementation of projects directed to environmental protection, but also for the quantification of environmental damages. Environmental innovation may encourage technological transfers, but also a greener growth, in a will that our societies develop themselves following a sustainable path. Chapters 2 and 3 are interested in the choice experiments method in order to value local residents’ willingness-to-pay for water quality improvements at a specific river basin in France. Using a choice experiment with different management regimes for the river basin, we find that residents are willing-to-pay for an improved water quality. Despite this positive result, we observe a significant proportion (20%) of protest bids in our sample. Protest bids are respondents that state a zero willingness-to-pay, even though their true value for the good is positive. In order to take into account the existence of protest bids, we estimate a cross-nested logit model in chapter 3. We then obtain larger willingness-to-pay, which proves that the cross-nested logit model best fits the peculiarity of our data. Chapters 4 and 5 try to identify the drivers of environmental innovation. Using world patent data and data from the world economic forum survey, we study the impact of environmental public policies on innovation in clean technologies directed to water and air pollution, and waste. We find that both general innovative capacity and environmental policy stringency have a positive role on environment-related innovation. Chapter 5 looks at the influence of co-authorship of scientific publications on wind energy-related innovation. We use both the world patent database and the “Scopus” database, which contains lots of scientific literature references. We highlight the existence of knowledge spillovers between OECD and NON-OECD countries. Therefore, we show that knowledge transfers, regarding wind energy-related innovation, between OECD and NON-OECD countries contribute to improve NON-OECD countries' innovative capacity.

Dans le but de faire face aux défis interdépendants en termes d’épuisement des ressources énergétiques, de dégradation environnementale et des préoccupations de santé publique dans le contexte chinois en réponse au développement durable, nous nous concentrons sur l'étude des politiques en matière d’énergie, d’environnement et de santé en Chine. Dans le chapitre 1, nous donnons un aperçu des politiques chinoises en matière d’énergie, d’environnement et de santé au cours des 20 dernières années afin de connaître les orientations politiques futures auxquelles le gouvernement n'a pas donné une attention suffisante. Dans les trois chapitres suivants, nous proposons une série d'études empiriques afin de tirer quelques implications politiques utiles. Dans le chapitre 2, nous étudions l'impact de l'urbanisation, de l'adaptation de la structure industrielle, du prix de l'énergie et de l'exportation sur les intensités énergétiques agrégés et désagrégés des provinces. Dans le chapitre 3, nous étudions les facteurs qui expliquent la transition énergétique vers des combustibles propres des ménages ruraux. Dans le chapitre 4, nous examinons les effets conjoints des risques environnementaux, du revenu individuel, des politiques de santé sur l'état de santé des adultes chinois. En particulier, nos résultats empiriques suggèrent d’intégrer le développement urbain dans la stratégie d'économies d'énergie; de considérer des substitutions/complémentarités complexes parmi les sources d'énergie et entre l'énergie et l’alimentation pour les ménages ruraux; d’aligner les politiques environnementales, énergétiques et alimentaires avec les politiques de santé. / With the purpose of coping with the intertwined challenges of energy depletion, environmental degradation and public health concerns in the Chinese-specific context in response to sustainable development, we focus on investigating China’s energy, environment and health policies. In chapter 1, we provide an overview of China’s energy, environment and health policies over the past 20 years in order to know about the future policy directions to which the government has not given a sufficient attention. In the following three chapters, we provide a series of empirical studies so as to derive some useful policy implications. In chapter 2, we investigate the impact of urbanization, industrial structure adjustment, energy price and export on provincial aggregate and disaggregate energy intensities. In chapter 3, we study the factors explaining the switches from dirty to clean fuel sources in rural households. In chapter 4, we examine the joint effects of environmental hazards, individual income and health policies on the health status of Chinese adults. Our empirical findings particularly suggest integrating urban development into the strategy of energy saving; considering the complex substitutions/complementarities among energy sources and between energy and food for rural households; aligning the environment, energy and food policies with health policies.

Traditionnellement, les migrants internes chinois migrent seuls et laissent derrière eux leurs époux et enfants. Depuis vingt ans, ils sont toutefois plus nombreux à migrer avec les membres de leur famille. Peu d’études ont été consacrées à ce type de migrants. Selon la théorie de la migration de Mincer, les migrants familiaux ne choisissent pas un lieu de destination de la même façon que les migrants individuels. Ils ne sont pas attirés par les mêmes facteurs que les migrants individuels. En nous basant sur la littérature sur le sujet, qui met en relief le rôle des facteurs économiques dans la décision de migrer, nous nous posons alors la question de recherche suivante : les facteurs économiques ont-ils plus d’incidence sur le choix de destination pour les individus que les familles. En contrepartie, ces derniers seraient, plus que ceux qui migrent seuls, motivés par des facteurs environnementaux ou socio-sanitaires? Nos analyses sont effectuées avec les données de l’Enquête chinoise dynamique sur les migrants de 2014, qui contient des informations sur 200 937 migrants résidant dans 346 villes, et de l’Annuaire statistique des villes chinoises. Les analyses statistiques sont réalisées avec un modèle logit conditionnel, qui permet de déduire, sachant qu’une migration a eu lieu, l’attractivité des villes liée à leurs caractéristiques géographiques, économiques, sociales ou encore environnementales. Nos résultats suggèrent que les migrants familiaux sont en effet moins motivés que les migrants individuels par des facteurs économiques favorables dans les villes de destination, tels que des revenus moyens élevés, une quantité élevée de dépenses dans l’immobilier, une proportion élevée d’entreprises privées et de travailleurs autonomes, un taux de chômage bas et une proportion élevée d’emplois dans le secteur secondaire. Nos résultats indiquent aussi que les migrants familiaux sont motivés par certaines caractéristiques socio-sanitaires telles que la quantité de dépenses dans l’éducation, les sciences et la technologie et de lits d’hôpitaux. Nous remarquons que ces effets sont plus forts chez les migrants ayant eu des enfants avant de migrer et vivant avec ceux-ci au moment de l’enquête. Nous notons par ailleurs que certains de ces résultats sont affectés par un effet d’âge, qui peut être confondu avec le cycle de vie familiale, les migrants familiaux étant en général plus âgés que ceux ou celles qui migrent seuls. / Traditionally, Chinese internal migrants migrate alone and leave behind their spouse and children. Over the past twenty years, more migrants have migrated with members of their nuclear family (Fan et al., 2011, Fan et Li, 2019, Duan et al., 2008). Few studies have been devoted to this type of migrants. According to Mincer’s migration theory (1977), family migrants do not choose a place of destination in the same way as individual migrants. They also are not attracted by the same pull factors as individual migrants. The purpose of our research is to address the following question: Do the economic factors have a greater impact on the destination choice of families when compared to individuals, the former being more motivated by environmental, social and health factors? Our analyzes are performed with data from the 2014 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, which contains information on 200,937 migrants residing in 346 cities, and the Statistical Yearbook of Chinese Cities. The statistical analyses are performed with a conditional logit model. The results indicate that family migrants are less motivated than individual migrants by favourable economic factors such as high average incomes, high proportion of private businesses and self-employed workers, high amount of spending on real estate, high proportion of high employment in the secondary sector and low unemployment rate. Our results also allow us to conclude that family migrants are motivated by certain social and health characteristics such as the quantity of hospital beds and the amount of expenditure on education, science, and technology. We note that these effects are more important among migrants who had children before migrating and living with them at the time of the survey. However, we observe that some of these results are due to an age effect.