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Magister Legum - LLM / South Africa

Magister Legum - LLM / South Africa

本研究以2014年台北市長選舉，連勝文陣營為個案，探討其電視競選廣告的產製策略。首先根據外在環境因素與內在組織因素，將選戰劃分為三個時期，再分別探討連勝文陣營在這三個時期的競選傳播策略，以及組織動力，如何影響電視競選廣告的產製。研究方法為深度訪談法與參與觀察法。 研究結果顯示，由於連勝文陣營缺乏競選傳播策略，無法產製有效文宣，在選戰早期就該形塑的候選人定位也始終不明。選戰中遭遇危機，無法適時調整策略，競選廣告沒有扣連明確功能，而成為創意的試驗場，甚至造成反效果。 若從組織動力的角度切入，連勝文陣營競選傳播策略不明的問題，與遲遲無法建立領導核心有關。競選陣營的決策機制，往往是多元與效率的拉鋸，但為了因應瞬息萬變的選戰情勢，必要時應以效率為先，只是在組織與內規建立時，也應設下內控機制。 / This research focuses on Sean Lien camp’s strategy on the production of televised campaign communication during the 2014 Taipei city Mayoral election. First, the campaign can be divided into three phrases in terms of external factor and internal factor. This research will further look into the campaign communication strategy, and how televised campaign communication of Lien camp’s organization during the three phrases. The research methods are in-depth interview and observation in person. The research results show that Lien camp lacks campaign communication strategy, so Lien camp cannot produce effective campaign ads during his campaign. Lien camp fails to identify what kind of the candidate will play if elected, and also cannot adjust its campaign strategy to cope with urgent situation. Lien camp’s campaign communication cannot effectively promote candidate, but just to become the experiment of imagination and leads to counter-effect to the campaign. Judging from Lien camp’s organization, Lien camp fails to establish a clear leadership which is related to ineffectiveness of campaign communication. Decision-making mechanism of campaign headquarters is the tug-of-war between diversity and effectiveness. Sometimes, campaign headquarters must set effective measures as top priority in order to deal with changing campaign situation. However, internal control mechanism must be built while the establishment of organization of campaign headquarters and internal rules.

「預測市場」以未來事件為交易標的，透過網路平台彙整即時資訊，運用價格來判斷未來事件的發展，此研究方法同時具有「適當獎懲」與「連續修正」兩項特性。 本研究以文獻分析途徑探究預測市場在不同交易機制下的運作方式與市場價格決定過程，並據此分析不同交易機制之間的差異與影響預測市場運作的因素；除此之外，本研究另以個案研究途徑來探討「連續雙向拍賣」與「市場計分法則」兩個交易機制在價格準確度、市場流動性、價格炒作、參與誘因與莊家風險之間的差異。 本研究發現：若交易機制是連續雙向拍賣，則「0-100型」合約價格的預測準確度較高；若交易機制是市場計分法則，則「落點預測型」合約價格的預測準確度較高。連續雙向拍賣機制具有市場流動性不足的問題；市場計分法則機制面臨莊家風險的危機且不適用於市場競爭度高的環境；而上述兩種交易機制皆會出現價格炒作的現象。 / “Prediction market” is a research method based on immediate information collecting and organizing on the internet platform. With future events as the object of transaction, variations of the price of each transaction thus immediately provide the prediction of the development of future events. Therefore, this method has two properties including “appropriate incentives” and “continuous correction”. In this study, document analysis is first conducted to review the operation modes of different trading mechanisms for prediction markets and the process of price making. Accordingly, differences between trading mechanisms and the factors that affect the operation of prediction market will also be analyzed. Furthermore, comparisons of the price accuracy, market liquidity, price speculation, incentives and maker risks between "continuous double auction" and "market scoring rule" are discussed in case study. The findings of this study: if the trading mechanism is “continuous double auction”, the price accuracy of “winner-take-all” contract is higher; if the trading mechanism is “market scoring rules”, the price accuracy of “index” contract is higher. There exists insufficient market liquidity in “continuous double auction;” while in “market scoring rule,” there exists maker risks and it is hard to be applied in highly competitive market. The phenomenon of price speculation exits in both trading mechanisms.

Submitted by Renan Gomes De Pieri (renanpieri@yahoo.com.br) on 2016-01-04T18:59:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 tese Renan Pieri (final).pdf: 1613774 bytes, checksum: add528ec929ae2d5c1a012e6f1ba3823 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Letícia Monteiro de Souza (leticia.dsouza@fgv.br) on 2016-01-05T11:09:23Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 tese Renan Pieri (final).pdf: 1613774 bytes, checksum: add528ec929ae2d5c1a012e6f1ba3823 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-01-05T12:31:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tese Renan Pieri (final).pdf: 1613774 bytes, checksum: add528ec929ae2d5c1a012e6f1ba3823 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-12-03 / Esta tese é constituída por três capítulos que se enquadram na área de Microeconomia Aplicada, sendo dois deles de Economia Política Aplicada e o outro de Economia da Educação. O primeiro capítulo investiga se a eleição de mulheres para a prefeitura impacta a inserção de outras mulheres no mercado político, reduzindo-se assim uma preferência pré-estabelecida pelos eleitores de não votar em mulheres. Para realizar o exercício, utiliza-se um experimento de Regressão em Descontinuidade onde explora-se eleições em que uma mulher perdeu ou ganhou por uma margem pequena de votos para um candidato homem, a ponto do gênero eleito ser aleatório. Os resultados mostram que a eleição de uma mulher tem impacto apenas em ambientes mais propícios a eleger mulheres (o que foi mensurado aqui pelo percentual de vereadoras eleitas) ou em locais onde os candidatos tinham maior qualidade (medido pela escolaridade). O segundo artigo estima o impacto da divulgação da qualidade escolar sobre a migração dos alunos entre escolas. A ideia é que ao tornar-se público o sinal de qualidade, escolas e alunos têm incentivos para se adaptarem conforme sua demanda por qualidade. Para isso, explora-se um desenho de Regressão em Descontinuidade Fuzzy devido a um dos critérios de divulgação do IDEB ser a escola ter no mínimo 20 alunos matriculados na série avaliada. Os resultados mostram que as escolas que tiveram IDEB divulgado tiveram maior migração de alunos e, em especial, de alunos em condições de vulnerabilidade. O terceiro artigo avalia a hipótese de exogeneidade da abertura comercial brasileira, promovida no final da década de 1980 e início da de 1990. Há uma vasta literatura que explora os efeitos da abertura comercial sobre o mercado de trabalho, desigualdade de renda, pobreza e crescimento econômico. Tais trabalhos consideram o processo de liberalização brasileiro como não correlacionado com as demandas de nenhum setor de atividade econômica específico, o que justificaria utilizar o período de abertura como um instrumento para lidar com endogeneidade nas estimações. Nós apresentamos evidência de que, embora não correlacionado com nenhum setor em especial, a abertura estava correlacionada com a distribuição de capital político dos governos nesse período, e pode ter funcionado como uma estratégica clara de fortalecimento político ou, pelo menos, teve o contexto político como um facilitador do processo. / This thesis includes three papers that fall in the Applied Microeconomics subject, two of them of Applied Political Economics and the other of Economics of Education. The first chapter investigates whether the election of women to the municipal government affects the political market to other women, reducing up a predetermined voters' preference of not to vote for women. To perform the exercise, I use a Regression Discontinuity experiment, which explores elections in which a woman barely lost or won by a small margin of votes, being the winner gender a random variable. Results show that the election of a woman has impact only in more favorable environments to elect female politicians (we used the percentage of elected female councilors as measure) or where there are better candidates (measured by schooling years). The second chapter estimates the impact of school quality disclosure on the migration of students between schools. The idea is that to become public the quality signal, schools and students have incentives to adapt themselves conforming their demand for quality. For this, I explore a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design for one of the IDEB's disclosure criteria be the school have at least 20 students enrolled in the evaluated series. The results show that schools that had released IDEB experienced more migration of students. This is true, in special, for students in situation of vulnerability. The second chapter analyses the exogeneity hypothesis of Brazilian trade liberalization, promoted in the late 80's and early 90's. There is a vast literature that explores the effects of trade liberalization on labor market, income inequality, poverty and economic growth. These works consider the Brazilian process of liberalization as uncorrelated with the demands of any particular economic activity sector, which would justify using the opening period as an instrument to deal with endogeneity in the estimation. We present evidence that, while not correlated with any sector, the opening was correlated with the distribution of political capital of the central government during this period, and may have acted as a clear strategic political empowerment.

首長特別費事件演變至今，焦點都被導向高度抽象的政治議題，民間失去發言或制衡的空間，讓許多深刻值得探問的價值問題，陷入無法討論的困境，但本文要追問的根本問題是：法律，對現今台灣的民眾來說，所代表的意義是什麼？是把法律看成一種限制他們行動領域的規範，對法律採取一種戰戰兢兢算計犯法後果的策略性態度？還是把法律視為一種具正當性與有效性的行為規範，發自內心對法律採取尊重的態度？算計自己最大的利益，真的就是我們人類追求理性的最終結果嗎？如何縮小這些鴻溝，或許就是我們該戮力的地方。 哈伯瑪斯認為法律取得其正當性，與溝通行動之間具有相似的結構性，所以力主引進「溝通理性」，作為法規範產生及運用的構成基礎。但從法律理論的角度來看，哈氏認為現代法律秩序要從「自決」這個概念獲得其正當性，而且公民應從論述或審議的模式切入，同時把自己理解為所要服從的法律的承受者及創制者。對於裁判理性，哈氏曾針對四種具代表性的不同法律理論見解提出批判，主要為法律詮釋學、法律實在論、法律實證論，以及Dworkin的融貫理論，最後他提出自己所主張的程序法典範的法律觀。哈氏認為現代法制史中，運用得最成功的法律典範，是今日依然相互競爭的兩種法律典範，一是形式法的典範，另一種是實質法的典範，但哈氏認為這兩種典範都有所不足，所以主張要採取言說理論視角的第三種法律典範—程序法典範，來理解與解決二十世紀末出現的社會困境。 在現今充斥「語言暴力」、「策略性語言」、「意識型態扭曲」的社會中，言說的有效檢驗，對現況的釐清確有助益，但問題是如何進行？所以，本文嘗試從理解哈伯瑪斯的言說理論為核心，來討論法律與其同屬之社會文化間的關係。同時，藉由哈氏所提之「生活界與系統界」的概念，探求法律在社會整合中所扮演的媒介角色，探討法律的生成與溝通行動何以密不可分？最後，論證法律的正當性，主要是來自以溝通言說為基礎，所達致的同意與共識。 / Since the broke out of the special funds affair of Taipei mayor, the focus has been on highly abstract political issues; the value questions, which were profound and worth inquiring, fell into difficult position and were unable to discuss. This paper closely examines the basic question: what the meaning of the law ought to be? What significant value the law should represent? Should it be an instrument or an institution; should it be developed in a strategic or communicative way; and should it be rules and regulation laid down by the authority or the normative commitment of the citizens. Habermas thought the law obtains its legitimacy through real communication and therefore the “communicative rationality” is the foundation of the law. From the perspective of legal theory, Habermas thinks modern legal order must “be self determined” to obtain its legitimacy; moreover, the citizen should elaborate and judge the making of the law through participation and communication. Habermas thus criticizes four well-known theories of law, i.e., legal realism, legal empiricism, legal positivism and Dworkin’s coherence theory. He then asserts his own proceduralist paradigm of law. Habermas believes that in the history of modern law, the most successful legal paradigms are still in competition today – one is the paradigm of the positive law, the other is the paradigm of substantive law. However, he believes both paradigms are inadequate, so he asserts the necessity of a third legal paradigm, which emphasizes the discourse theory perspective – the proceduralist paradigm of law to understand and resolve the social difficulties. Reacting to the flooding “language violence,” “strategic language,” “ideological twisting” in the society of nowadays, effective evaluation of discourse can certainly help in clarifying the present situation, but the question is how to carry on? This article attempts to answer the question by studying the discourse theory of Habermas as the core, and discuss the relationship between law and the social culture to which it belongs. At the same time, with Habermasian concept of “the lifeworld and the system”, this paper seeks to evaluate the medium role of law in social integration to assess the reason for the intimacy between legal formation and communicative action. Finally, this paper argues that the legitimacy of law primarily comes from communicative discourse that serves as a basis to reach agreement and consensus. Keywords: mayoral special funds, Habermas, legal validity, legitimacy, communicative reason, the lifeworld and the system , legal validity theory of discourse, Proceduralist paradigm of law

Questa ricerca presenta una panoramica introduttiva delle principali variabili (storiche, sociali, economiche, istituzionali, culturali, ideologiche e valoriali) che condizionano il policy-making educativo degli Stati Uniti e descrive le riforme e innovazioni più significative introdotte negli ultimi trent’anni nel sistema scolastico americano. Quali fattori socio-culturali, urgenze storiche, azioni e convinzioni politiche stanno alla base delle riforme in atto? Come stanno mutando gli equilibri di potere fra governo federale, stati membri e autorità locale e quali sono le ricadute di questo riallineamento sulla governance scolastica? L’approccio seguito per esaminare le principali riforme ed innovazioni (dal movimento per gli standard comuni, al collegamento fra i test scolastici e accountability per i risultati, alle charter school) è quello proprio della policy research, disciplina pressoché sconosciuta a quanti s’interessano di problematiche pedagogiche in Italia ma che può arricchire la capacità di lettura e comprensione di molte questioni dibattute quando si parla di riforme dell’istruzione. / this research provides a comprehensive introduction to the field of education policies in the United States. Blending together theoretical analysis and practical examples, it examines the main variables (history, economy, demographics, political structures, ideologies, values, political culture) that influence the policy environment. What social and economic needs does the U.S. education system cater to? What sociocultural factors, pressing historical circumstances, political choices and actions and beliefs (independent) underlie the current education reforms? What are the implications of the shift of power over education policy from the school and local levels to the federal and state levels? Current issues such as charter schools, high-stakes testing, standards-based reform, and school choice are analyzed in retrospective and perspective using a policy research approach to public problems and policy alternatives. Almost unknown to Italian educational experts, particularly in academia, policy research can expand our general understanding and knowledge about problems and choices when education reform is under discussion.