This thesis brings a new approach to research of non-performing loans (NPLs), stepping away from the traditional macroeconomic and bank-specific focused literature by exploring the relationship between NPLs and natural disasters across all 50 US states, aiming to understand to what extent and how natural disasters affect financial instability as reflected by NPLs. Using fixed effects models with Beck and Katz robust standard errors the study analyses annual state-level NPL-ratio, a measure of NPLs to total loan portfolio value with natural disasters measured as the number of disasters, cost of disasters, and deaths from disasters. Macroeconomic variables are included as controls, the included variables are by personal income, unemployment rate, and tax collection. The studied period is 1984 to 2019. Support for the notion that the NPL ratio is affected by natural disasters is found, however, the results are conflicting as the number of disasters is found to increase the NPL ratio according to the theoretical expectation, however, not when interactions are added to the model. Whilst, contrary to previous research the number of deaths from disasters is found to decrease the NPL ratio. The results are thus deemed ambiguous. However, the thesis contributes to the field by highlighting the need for further research into similar research questions and providing a new approach to NPLs in the US context.

This contribution analyzes the rhetoric surrounding natural disasters in historiographic sources, challenging our assumptions about the eschatological nature of late antique and medieval historical consciousness. Contrary to modern expectations, a large number of late antique and medieval sources indicate that earthquakes and other natural disasters were understood as signs from God, relating to theophanic encounters or divine wrath in the present time. Building on recent research on premodern concepts of time and historical consciousness, the article underscores the fact that eschatological models of time and history—that is, the relentless linear, teleological progression of time towards the End of Days—was not how premodern people perceived the relationship between past, present, and future. The textual evidence presented here is supported by a fragmented and littleknown illuminated historiographic text, the Ravennater Annalen, housed today in the cathedral library in Merseburg. This copy of a sixth-century illustrated calendar from Ravenna contains unique depictions of earthquakes in the form of giants breathing fire. Like the textual sources, this visual document should not be read as a premonition of the End of Days, rather it visualizes the belief that divine agency and wrath caused natural disasters.

Orientador: Jefferson de Lima Picanço / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Geociências / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-25T17:21:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Goto_EricaAkemi_M.pdf: 2434424 bytes, checksum: d71a89d1c7e0e21eb6d76e865565159a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: As grandes cidades brasileiras, como é o caso do município de São Paulo, passaram por uma urbanização acelerada e desorganizada a partir dos anos 60, levando a ocupação de várzeas e morros, e consequente formação de diversas áreas de risco. Uma forma de contribuir para prevenção e mitigação de acidentes e desastres nesses locais é através de trabalhos educacionais, como as capacitações de educação não formal voltadas para moradores e técnicos que nesses locais atuam. Com o intuito de entender o papel dessas capacitações e propor diretrizes básicas, foi realizado um estudo dos cursos de educação não formal voltados para prevenção e mitigação de acidentes e desastres em áreas de risco a movimentos de massa oferecidos pela Prefeitura do Município de São Paulo (PMSP) nos anos de 2012 e 2013. Para este estudo, acompanharam-se três capacitações: "Percepção de risco", "Capacitação para Mapeamento e Gerenciamento de Áreas de Risco" e "Riscos Ambientais Urbanos: uma Abordagem Preventiva". Para melhor compreendê-las, foram escolhidos alguns indicadores a serem observados, como o público-alvo ao qual foram destinadas e qual atingiram, distribuição geográfica dentro do município, conteúdo e linguagem, uso ou não da pedagogia crítica do lugar, papel didático das saídas de campo e relação com o gerenciamento participativo de riscos proposto pela PMSP. Como metodologia de análise, elaborou-se e aplicou-se questionário, realizou-se entrevista com técnicos da PMSP, analisou-se o material didático e outros matérias cedidos pela PMSP e acompanharam-se as capacitações. Entende-se que essas capacitações são de suma importância, contribuindo para melhorar a percepção de risco dos moradores e técnicos da PMSP. Entretanto, para que elas consigam contribuir a longo prazo para prevenção e mitigação de acidentes e desastres é interessante que não sejam entendidas como atividades pontuais, e pelo contrário, que estejam integradas ao gerenciamento participativo de risco das comunidades em áreas de risco / Abstract: The Brazilian big cities, such as São Paulo, went through an accelerated and disorganized urbanization process after the 1960s. This urbanization process resulted in the construction of low-income housing units in valleys and on slopes, which lead to the formation of many hydrological risk areas. One way of mitigate and prevent accidents and disasters on those areas is with educational activities, like the non-formal courses developed to local inhabitants and municipality technicians who work on those at risk areas. With the goal of a better understanding of the role of those non-formal courses, the author developed a research on those types of courses given by Sao Paulo city municipality during 2012 and 2013. For this research, there were three types of courses studied: "Risk Perception", "Capacity for Risk Area Mapping and Management" and "Environmental Urban Risks: a Prevention Approach". During the research, there were some characteristics observed, such as proposal course target and final course target, geographic distribution of those courses, language and content of the courses, use or not of place conscious education, didactic role of the field activities and relationship with the risk management proposed by Sao Paulo city municipality. With this methodology, there was survey elaboration and application, interview with municipality technicians, didactical material and others materials related with the courses analysis and courses observation. Those types of courses are important to develop risk perception on local inhabitants and municipality technicians. Although, those courses can't be just punctual actions. They have to be put together with community risk management / Mestrado / Ensino e Historia de Ciencias da Terra / Mestra em Ensino e História de Ciências da Terra

In this study, the role of positive and negative religious coping was evaluated for their interrelationship with demographic variables, religious variables, and the outcome of mental health distress. A sample of 253 United Methodist Church leaders from counties throughout the state of Mississippi completed a survey including measures for demographic characteristics, religious coping, general coping, and mental health distress. Through regression analysis and path analysis, the relationships among the variables were measured to determine the importance of religious coping strategies while controlling for demographic variables and general forms of coping. Through regression analysis, the subjective report of personal losses immediately after Hurricane Katrina, participation in religious activities, and involvement in recovery efforts significantly predicted the presence of mental health distress among United Methodist Church leaders in Mississippi. In particular, religious participation insulated against the presence of mental health distress while personal losses and recovery involvement promoted the likelihood of mental health distress. Positive forms of general coping as well as religious forms of coping provided no significant contribution to the presence or absence of mental health distress, but negative forms of general coping did predict higher levels of mental health distress. Among this religiously oriented sample, religious forms of coping was not significantly predictive of the presence of mental health distress after accounting for general forms of coping which suggested that religious coping may be indistinguishable from forms of coping that are more generalized in nature. Through path analysis, negative religious coping significantly influenced the increased presence of mental health distress but did not serve as a mediator between mental health distress and other religious and demographic variables. A surprising finding in this study was the important mediating role of recovery involvement between mental health distress and other factors including religious participation, religious salience, and status as an ordained minister. Additionally, at nearly three years after the storm, persons reporting to currently live in close proximity to the disaster and persons continuing to experience loss due to the disaster reported a higher prevalence of mental health distress. Implications for the current literature and the need for further research were discussed.

This thesis comprises three stand-alone chapters: The first chapter is on the effect of natural disasters on labor markets. Using data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey, the Desinventar database, the US Geological Survey and district level employment indicators, we explore how a large earthquake in Indonesia affected local labor markets, in particular the evolution of wages and employment across sectors. We find that wage growth in the agriculture sector is significantly higher in earthquake affected areas. We propose two mechanisms for this result and show evidence for both mechanisms. The second chapter investigates the intra-household allocation of leisure and consumption among siblings. Children are often treated as passive members in the household and their preferences over consumption and leisure are rarely modeled. This chapter considers children as agents with their own preferences over leisure and consumption and builds a theoretical and empirical model for children's time and consumption allocations in a household. We test the predictions of the model with data from Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam. The results suggest that differences in siblings' relative time and consumption allocations are driven by their relative preferences over leisure and consumption rather than differences in parents' relative altruism. The third chapter examines the cost of transport infrastructure in developing countries. To our knowledge, this is the first study that analyzes drivers of unit costs of construction of transport infrastructure using a large data set of 3,322 unit costs of road work activities in low and middle income countries. We find a large dispersion in unit costs for comparable work activities. Unit costs are significantly higher in conflict and corrupt countries, and these effects are robust to controlling for a country's public investment capacity and business environment. Finally, higher unit costs are significantly negatively correlated with infrastructure provision.

Community resilience to disasters is an affected area’s ability to rebound after a catastrophic event. The mounting frequency and scale of natural disasters, increasing urbanization, a growing reliance on interdependent technologies and infrastructure systems, and inflated expectations of interventions are responsible for greater disaster vulnerability and demonstrate the need to develop more resilient communities. Given the increasing shocks of natural disasters, a more complete understanding of resilience is important for creating safer, more sustainable communities. One factor that is known to impact resilience is social networks. Urban planning research has shown that walkable, mixed-use neighborhoods can encourage the development of social networks and place attachment through an increase in interactions and a higher density of neighborhood amenities, including characteristics of the built environment that influence social networks, such as varied land uses and pedestrian-oriented design. The built environment connects residents to a place and can serve as a benchmark for recovery. Therefore, it is possible that the traditional planning domain of urban design can be harnessed to foster greater resilience by facilitating stronger social networks. In order to determine the legitimacy of this supposition, this research examines how social networks and the built environment create greater resilience to disasters. Given that social networks increase community resilience to all types of disasters, social networks are shown to be influenced by certain types of space, and the built environment is a common intervention for planners, this research explores the potential for creating cities that are more resilient by creating spaces that foster social networks. The Mississippi Gulf Coast was chosen as a case study area in order to explore the above relationships. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina struck the region, resulting in massive wind and storm surge damage to the Mississippi Coast. Communities in the area have recovered at varying rates and levels. Therefore, this region provided an opportunity to contrast higher and lower resilience communities and to test the above research questions. The research was conducted in two stages. In the first stage, a quantitative model was developed in order to address whether there are statistically significant effects on resilience due to the built environment. In the second stage, a qualitative case study analysis of communities was undertaken using interviews with local residents. The results demonstrate that certain aspects of the built environment are associated with greater resilience, including intersection density, net residential density, the density of historic sites, and community amenities where social networks gather. Furthermore, urban design features with the greatest capacity to increase resilience were also useful features for the types of local social networks that were found to be most important for resilience.

This dissertation explores the implications of natural disaster risk for access to financial services, especially credit. Its results show that disasters can dramatically undermine the ability of financial intermediaries (FIs) to lend after an event, increasing the cost of the disaster and delaying recovery. Moreover, the risk of natural disasters discourages investment in vulnerable regions and economic sectors and so slows economic development. Financial risk transfer mechanisms such as insurance can help maintain lending following an event. While many international development projects have targeted disaster insurance markets to households, managing disaster-related credit risk may be done more effectively through insurance products for FIs. Additionally, prudential supervision and the credit risk rating methods of investors in developing and emerging economies are dominated by developed country standards that overlook natural disaster risks. Public and private interests align in the need to tailor such standards and so enhance the effectiveness with which vulnerable FIs manage disaster risk.

The aim of this thesis is to investigate the Chinese government’s disaster response over the past two decades, analyze any patterns or recurring management behaviors, and understand the government’s overall emergency response capability. Disaster response is one area that reflects the Chinese Communist Party’s ability to govern and exhibit performance legitimacy. As an authoritarian regime, the CCP relies on repression and performance to maintain its authority, especially so when national disasters occur. During times of crisis, the CCP is expected to maintain control and minimize potentially negative consequences. Not doing so results in a potential image crisis and loss of legitimacy. The cases studied in this thesis were the 2005 Songhua River benzene spill, the 2008 winter storms, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the 2015 Tianjin warehouse explosions, and the 2016 June and July floods. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake was the deadliest disaster in a generation and provides the most thorough example to investigate China’s government disaster response capabilities. Two of these crises were industrial chemical accidents near or in major Chinese cities. The remaining two were weather disasters spread over a large area that required a far-reaching and coordinated government response across multiple provinces. Each of these sets displays a type of national disaster that China experiences regularly. In conclusion, the investigation makes two conclusions about the government’s disaster response capabilities. First, the central government is able to make extensive use of its overall authority and hierarchical structure to mobilize state resources on a massive scale. This includes the CCP’s control of the People’s Liberation Army and state emergency personnel, the government’s economic authority to impose immediate regulatory measures, and ability to gather and distribute physical resources. Second, the CCP seeks to avert an image crisis to maintain a veneer of performance legitimacy. Two common tactics are repressing investigative journalism and jailing critics while molding an image of a paternalistic and protecting state through compassionate moral performance. However, the necessity for this last conclusions hints at why such practices are necessary in the first place. The CCP’s rush for economic growth, lack of accountability, and propensity for corruption among other things are the very factors that have allowed disasters to become crises. Extreme measures are necessitated because the system the Party has built is prone to crisis. Without fundamental change, the CCP will continue facing such crises in the foreseeable future.

In the decades following World War II, the Louisiana National Guard evolved due to world, national, and local events. In response to the United States’ Cold War policies to contain Communism, the Guard expanded, professionalized, and was occasionally called to federal service. In conjunction with Cold War fears of external attack and internal subversion, a civil defense mission brought coordination between federal, state and local response agencies. Despite the lack of large scale war service or an attack on the U.S. homeland , the skills and responsibilities acquired by the Louisiana Guard during this time period resulted in an enhanced ability to respond to Louisiana’s biggest practical threat, i.e. natural disasters.

Tendo em vista o grande número de desastres naturais que têm afetado o mundo nos últimos anos e seus efeitos nocivos à economia e ao bem-estar social, é crescente o interesse da literatura, das organizações internacionais pertinentes e dos formuladores de políticas públicas, por avaliações dos impactos dessas catástrofes. O panorama brasileiro não é diferente, todos os anos o país é assolado por uma série de eventos naturais, que carecem de estudos sobre os seus diferentes impactos. Nesse contexto, o objetivo dessa pesquisa é avaliar, por meio de dois artigos, alguns dos efeitos socioeconômicos dos desastres naturais brasileiros. No primeiro estudo, foi verificado o impacto na atividade econômica dos municípios afetados, mensurada pelo Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) per capita, das chuvas e deslizamentos ocorridos na região Serrana do estado do Rio de Janeiro em janeiro de 2011. Esse evento, distinto aos demais desastres brasileiros, foi considerado em função do número de afetados e óbitos, o maior desastre natural do Brasil. Para investigar a relação de interesse, aplicou-se o método de controle sintético com procedimento de inferência baseado no descrito por Cavallo et al. (2013). Os resultados indicam que a catástrofe gerou efeitos negativos sobre o crescimento econômico dos municípios afetados. Já o segundo artigo, se propõe a avaliar a relação existente entre os desastres naturais hidrológicos e aspectos de saúde, como a morbimortalidade, nos municípios brasileiros. Essas catástrofes, apesar de não se tratarem do desastre mais comum, apresentam elevada recorrência e se destacam quando se trata do número de afetados e de óbitos. As possíveis implicações econômicas dos efeitos na saúde são variadas, perpassando pela redução da oferta de trabalho, perda de ativos, mudanças nas decisões alocativas das famílias, perda de capital humano, entre outras. Assim, o objetivo do segundo estudo é verificar os impactos regionais diretos e indiretos, de curto a longo prazo, dos eventos hidrológicos sobre a morbimortalidade por faixas etárias. Para isso, foi construído um painel de dados municipal com periodicidade mensal, de 2000 a 2012, com informações dos desastres e das taxas de mortalidade e morbidade. Os resultados indicam que, em curto prazo, se destacam os efeitos diretos como o aumento dos óbitos em virtude da exposição às forças da natureza e aos afogamentos. Em médio prazo, os impactos positivos se concentram, principalmente, nas taxas de morbidade em decorrência das doenças transmitidas pela água, com impactos relevantes na região Nordeste e sobre as crianças. Porém, dentre as enfermidades de médio prazo a mais crítica é a leptospirose. Essa doença é potencializada pelos desastres, tanto em relação às taxas de internações e atendimentos ambulatoriais quanto das taxas de mortalidade, em grande parte das regiões do Brasil. Já as doenças de longo prazo são pouco afetadas pelos eventos hidrológicos, com reflexos apenas para a morbidade em função da desnutrição na região Nordeste. Portanto, as evidências encontradas nesta tese indicam que os desastres naturais brasileiros demandam atenção, posto que geram uma série de impactos socioeconômicos nocivos no país. / In view of the large number of natural disasters that have affected the world in recent years and their detrimental effects on economy and social welfare, there is a growing interest in literature, relevant international organizations, and public policy makers on the impacts of these disasters. The Brazilian scenario is no different, every year the country is plagued by a series of natural disasters, which require studies on their different impacts. In this context, the objective of this research is to evaluate, through two articles, some of the socioeconomic effects of Brazilian natural disasters. In the first study, the impact in terms of economic growth of the affected municipalities was evaluated, measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of the rains and landslides that occurred in the mountain region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011. This event, distinct from the Brazilian disasters, was considered due to the number of people affected and deaths, it was the greatest natural disaster in Brazil. To investigate the relation of interest, the synthetic control method was applied with an inference procedure similar to that described by Cavallo et al. (2013). The results indicate that the event had negative effects on the economic growth of the affected municipalities. The second study seeks to evaluate the relationship between hydrological natural disasters and health aspects, such as morbidity and mortality, in Brazilian municipalities. These disasters, although not very common, present high recurrence and stand out when it comes to the number of people affected and deaths. The economic implications of health effects are varied, ranging from the reduction of job offers to loss of assets, changes in the allocative decisions of families, loss of human capital, among others. Thus, the objective of the second article is to verify the direct and indirect short- and long-term regional impacts of hydrological events on health on different age groups. For this purpose, a municipal data panel was compiled monthly with information from the disasters and mortality and morbidity rates from 2000 to 2012. The results indicate that, in the short term, the direct effects such as the increase of mortality rates due to exposure to forces of nature and to drownings stand out. In the medium term, the positive impacts are mainly on morbidity rates, due to waterborne diseases, with relevant impacts on the Northeast region and on children. However, of the medium-term diseases, the most critical is leptospirosis. This disease is strengthened by disasters, both in terms of hospitalization and outpatient care rates and mortality rates, in most of the regions of Brazil. Long-term diseases are little affected by hydrological disasters, with positive effects only on morbidity due to malnutrition in the Northeast region. Therefore, the evidence found in this thesis indicates that Brazilian natural disasters demand attention, since they generate a series of prejudicial socioeconomic impacts in the country.