The 2006 Swedish parliamentary election was a historic election with the largest bloc transfer of voters in Swedish history. The 2002-2006 incumbent Social Democratic Party (S) received its lowest voter support since 1914 as roughly 150,000, or 8%, of the 2002 S voters went to the main opposition, the conservative Moderate Party (M). This became the most decisive factor in ousting S from power after 12 years of rule. As a result, the M-led Alliance (A) with the People's Party (FP), the Center Party (C), and the Christian Democrats (KD) won the election. Natural Disasters and National Election makes the novel contribution of proposing two natural disasters, the Indian Ocean’s 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami and 2005 Storm Gudrun (Erwin), which struck only two weeks following the tsunami, as major events that impacted government popularity in the 2006 election and contributed to the redistribution of voter support, within and across party-blocs. The core findings from this thesis show that the S government’s poor crisis response to Gudrun, which is the hitherto most costly natural disaster in Swedish history, alone has an estimated effect of a magnitude that likely contributed to the 2006 historic regime shift, while the tsunami also seems to have mattered. The tsunami is particularly interesting, as S’s poor international crisis response to the event constitutes the first natural disaster situation to knowingly have affected an election on the other side of the planet. Moreover, to some degree voters recognized the active opposition by C as effective representation and rewarded the party for its strong stance on the poor handling of both events by S. In fact, the active voice of C concerning these disasters likely helped move the party from the periphery of party politics to becoming the third-largest party in Swedish politics. In sum, this research investigates accountability and effective party representation via retrospective voting, which is an essential mechanism for the legitimacy of democracy. Findings suggest that the average Swedish voter indeed may be voting retrospectively to hold publically elected officials accountable, which suggest a healthy status of the retrospective voting mechanism and Swedish democracy.

Women as a group hold little power in the social system which increases women's vulnerability to domestic violence. According to Merton (1970), social problems may be revealed through the disaster recovery process. A coraHunity1s organizational response to social problems such as wife abuse depends upon organizational members' perceptions. The data suggest that organizational perceptions of domestic violence largely depend upon the setting or environment in which an organization exists and operates. A second factor that greatly determines an organization's perception of domestic violence after disaster is organizational type. Organizations which provide services to domestic violence victims pre-disaster are more likely to perceive domestic violence following disaster than organizations which do not provide domestic violence related services prior to disaster.

Title: Analysis of interventions of detached units from Czech Armed Forces Objectives of work: to make overview of interventions of Czech Armed Forces for Integrated rescue system in the period 2001-2010 and divided by the nature of the emergencies. The results will be analysed in order to make conclusions in five areas: 1. overall use of Czech Armed Forces for Integrated rescue system 2. factors limiting use of Czech Armed Forces for Integrated rescue system 3. strengths and weaknesses in the internal management of Czech Armed Forces during deployment 4. cooperation of Czech Armed Forces and Integrated rescue system including a focus on functionality of established principles and algorithms required to deploy forces and equipment of Czech Armed Forces to rescue or liquidation operations. 5. financial costs of interventions of Czech Armed Forces for Integrated rescue system Method: Search in literature and writing the results in logical order. Procedures of reduced PEST analysis are used to assess the general risks of environment in the Czech Republic. The analytical part is processed with the help of elements of system analysis. Keywords: Integrated rescue system, Czech Arrned forces, natural disasters, epizootic, anthropogenic emergencies.

This study examines the phenomenon of student resiliency as it relates to Nunez Community College students who returned to attend school in the community of St. Bernard Parish following Hurricane Katrina. Nunez Community College is located in Chalmette, Louisiana, fifteen miles east of the City of New Orleans. The community is adjacent to the Lower Ninth Ward. This study seeks to answer the questions of why the students returned to a disaster-stricken area to continue their studies and how the students coped in the aftermath. There is a significant gap in the literature on post-disaster resiliency and in particular, the role of education in post-disaster recovery. Twelve students who returned to Nunez Community College post-Katrina were interviewed using a Student Resilience Model as a conceptual framework. The perceptions of the students' post-disaster experiences resulted in five themes which included Individual Resilience, Post-Disaster Academic Integration, Post-Disaster Social Int

This study examines the recovery process of businesses in Homestead, Florida after Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The goal of this study was to determine which organizational characteristics were useful in predicting the level of physical damage and the length of time to reopen for affected businesses. The organizational characteristics examined were age, size, pre-disaster gross sales, ownership of the business location, membership in the Chamber of Commerce, and property insurance. Three-hundred and fifty businesses in the area were surveyed. Because of the complexity of the recovery process, the disaster experiences of businesses were examined using three paradigms, organizational ecology, contingency theory, and configuration theory. Models were developed and tested for each paradigm. The models used the contextual variables to explain the outcome variables; level of physical damage and length of time to reopen. The SIC was modified so that it could form the framework for a taxonomic examination of the businesses. The organizations were examined at the level of division, class, subclass, and order. While the taxa and consistent levels of physical damage, the length of time needed to reopen varied greatly. The homogeneous level of damage within the groups is linked to similarity in assets and transformation processes. When examined using the contingency perspective, there were no significant relationships between the level of physical damage and the contextual variables. Only predisaster gross sales and level of physical damage had moderate strength associations with the length of time to reopen. The configuration perspective was applied by identifying clusters of organizations using the contextual variables. Clusters were identified and examined to determine if they had significantly different disaster experiences. The clusters varied significantly only by the length of time to reopen. The disaster experience of businesses is conceptualized as a process of accumulation-deaccumulation-reaccumulation. The level of physical damage is driven by selection while the lenght of time to reopen is determined by both adaptation and selection.

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2016-05-02T12:40:05Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Rosa Maria Duarte Galvão_.pdf: 783789 bytes, checksum: 55594dce850ee124a388cb48f22dfa8b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-02T12:40:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rosa Maria Duarte Galvão_.pdf: 783789 bytes, checksum: 55594dce850ee124a388cb48f22dfa8b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-05-20 / Nenhuma / O presente trabalho objetiva estruturar a descrição e repensar a acerca dos desastres naturais ambientais e dos riscos globais causados pelas mudanças climáticas, no âmbito do Direito Ambiental. A sociedade contemporânea, como produtora de riscos abstratos e globais, instiga a reflexão sobre um novo paradigma da questão ecológica mundial, diante da exigência de uma nova postura no que se refere aos sistemas sociais - especificamente, o sistema jurídico e o sistema político. Assim, através da Teoria dos Sistemas Sociais Autopoiéticos de Niklas Luhmann, sustentou-se o embasamento teórico sobre sociedade, no desenvolvimento desta pesquisa. Ademais, os riscos advindos do meio ambiente provocam irritações nos sistemas sociais, os quais produzem ressonâncias tanto nos próprios sistemas, quanto nos demais sistemas sociais. Os desastres ambientais sempre existiram - e provavelmente continuarão a acontecer onde ocorrer um nexo de causalidade com os extremos climáticos. A compreensão, a assimilação e a gestão do fato requerem conhecimento transdisciplinar, cujo traço marcante é a incerteza de sua probabilidade. Outrossim, são sistêmicos, tanto em motivos - econômicos, sociais, políticos - quanto em consequências, e bastante comumente conduzem a catástrofes. O Direito Ambiental é, portanto, uma resposta às (auto)irritações produzidas pelos sistemas sociais, para os quais o Direito Clássico já não consegue fornecer as respostas adequadas de que a sociedade necessita. Neste contexto, os desastres devem ser vistos como oportunidade política, social e jurídica de suplantar o desrespeito aos limites da natureza, e uma construção de uma racionalidade e de sustentabilidade ambiental, para a qual não somente os Estados têm a missão de proteger o meio ambiente, mas toda a sociedade, assegurando condições de uso para cada ser humano habitante do planeta Terra. / The present study aims to structure the description and rethink environmental natural disasters and global risks posed by climate change, under Environmental Law. The contemporary society, as a creator of abstract and global risks, instigates reflection on a new paradigm of global ecological issue given the requirement of a new position regarding social systems - specifically legal and political systems. Thus, through his Theory of Autopoietic Systems, Niklas Luhmann held up the theoretical foundation about society in the development of this research. Besides that, the risks arising from environment cause exasperation in social systems, which produce resonances both in systems themselves as well as in other social systems. Environmental disasters have always existed - and will probably continue to happen wherever there is a causal link with climate extremes. The understanding, assimilation and fact management require interdisciplinary knowledge, whose striking feature is the uncertainty of its likelihood. Furthermore, they are systemic, both in reasons - economic, social, and political – as well as in consequences, and quite often lead to disasters. Therefore, Environmental Law is a response to the (self) exasperation produced by social systems, for which Classic Law can no longer provide the appropriate answers society needs. In this context disasters should be seen as political, social and legal opportunities of supplanting disregard to the limits of nature, and a construction of rationality and environmental sustainability, for which not only the States have the mission to protect the environment, but also the whole society, ensuring use conditions for every human being inhabiting planet Earth.

L’objectif général de cette thèse est d’étudier la prise de décision des individus en situation de catastrophe naturelle, en l’occurrence d’origine volcanique, et d’aboutir à des applications possibles, notamment à une amélioration de la prise de décision des populations exposées. Nous nous sommes intéressés à l’incertitude, dimension essentielle des situations de catastrophe naturelle, qui présente un impact important sur les émotions et la prise de décision des individus. D’une part, l’incertitude situationnelle est déterminante quant aux émotions prospectives comme la peur, et, d’autre part, l’incertitude des conséquences influence l’utilisation des heuristiques émotionnelles (émotions comme éléments pertinents à la décision) dans la prise de décision (système 1). Ce travail de thèse a été traité selon trois axes complémentaires. Dans le premier axe, intitulé Incertitude situationnelle, effet de cadrage et prise de décision, nous avons montré que la simple exposition à l’incertitude situationnelle impliquerait une absence d’effet de cadrage, qui, selon les travaux précédents, pourrait provenir d’une augmentation du traitement systématique (système 2), liée au processus de régulation fronto-amygdalienne. Dans le second axe, Incertitude des conséquences, information à la population et prise de décision, nous avons mis en évidence le fait qu’une réduction de l’incertitude des conséquences dans l’information donnée à la population permettait, dans certains cas précis, d’aboutir à de meilleures prises de décision. L’effet obtenu n’a néanmoins été identifié que dans les situations impliquant de fortes émotions anticipatoires (domicile, dilemmes moraux), situations fréquentes au cours des catastrophes naturelles. Enfin, dans le troisième axe, Création d’une base de stimuli pour l’étude du comportement humain face aux risques naturels, nous avons présenté la construction et la validation d’une base d’images liées aux catastrophes naturelles et au volcanisme, nommée « Natural Disasters Picture System » (NDPS). / The overall aim of this thesis is to examine the decision-making of individuals at risk of natural disaster, specifically related to volcanism, and to achieve potential applications, notably to improve the decision-making of individuals at risk. We focused on the uncertainty, an essential aspect of natural disaster events, which greatly impacts individuals’ emotions and decision-making. On the one hand, the situational uncertainty is an essential component for prospective emotions such as fear, and on the other hand, the uncertainty of consequences determines the use of affect heuristics (emotions used as relevant aspects of the decision) in decision-making (system 1). This doctoral thesis followed three complementary axes. In the first axis, namely Situational Uncertainty, Framing Effect and Decision-Making, we exhibited that the mere exposure to situational uncertainty could negate the framing effect, which could be explained, based on previous works, by an increase of systematic processing (system 2), stemming from the processes of the fronto-amygdala regulation. In the second axis, Uncertainty of Consequences, Information to Population and Decision-Making, we have evidenced that a reduction of the uncertainty of consequences applied to the information to population could improve, under certain circumstances, the individuals’ decisions. This effect was only identified in situations of highly charged anticipatory emotions (home environment, moral dilemmas), which are frequently encountered situations during natural disasters. Lastly, in the third axis, Creation of a Stimuli Dataset for the Study of the Human Behavior Facing Natural Hazard, we detailed the conception and validation of an image dataset dedicated to natural disasters and volcanism, named “Natural Disasters Picture System” (NDPS).

Throughout the world, weather-related and other natural phenomena claim thousands of lives and devour billions of dollars annually in recovery efforts. Destruction of life and property in the wake of disasters is devastating, and can have a dramatic impact on families and businesses around the globe. Yet, published works specifically in the field of Family Resource Management (FRM) reveal a limited understanding of how families respond when these critical events strike with little or no warning, particularly for business-owning families. This paper explores family business responses to a particular natural disaster through case study research from the FRM perspective. Essentially, its purpose is to ascertain whether the FRM description of management is useful for family business systems in the wake of a natural disaster. A review of the FRM and family business literature is offered, followed by a broad description of qualitative methods and a justification for the case study methodology for this project. In-depth information about the successful management of a natural disaster was gathered through face-to-face and phone interviews with five leaders of family-owned businesses. The interviews were transcribed and analyzed, followed by member checks and peer reviews to strengthen the trustworthiness of the findings. Based on the experiences of the five CEOs that participated in this study, it appears that the FRM conceptualization of management generally captured their experience and can perhaps be a useful tool in conceptualizing the preparation for, and recovery from, critical events. It was also found, as anticipated, that access to tangible resources (money, materials, equipment) and intangible resources (communication processes, family unity, adaptability, relationships) was a key to successful management. What was somewhat surprising, however, was the emphasis placed on the power of relationships in the management process. A discussion on how this study relates to previous work on family stress and coping models is offered, and implications for researchers, practitioners, and government agencies that interface with families in business are provided. / Graduation date: 2003

The aim of this thesis is to study through four essays the economics of migration from developing countries. The …rst chapter assesses the e¤ect of natural disasters (mainly due to climate change), in developing countries, on migration rates and looks at how this e¤ect varies according to the level of education of people. Our results show that natural disasters are positively associated with emigration rates and also involve the migration of highly skilled people. The second chapter presents the di¤erent channels explaining the intention to migrate illegally. One of the novelties of the analysis is that it uses a tailor-made survey among urban Senegalese individuals. We …nd that potential illegal migrants are willing to accept a substantial risk of death and tend to be young, single and with a low level of education. We also show that the price of illegal migration, migrant networks, high expectations, tight immigration policies and the preferred destination country all play a role in the willingness to migrate illegally. The third chapter completes the second one by studying the role of risk-aversion and discount rate in illegal migration from Senegal. Our results show that these individual preferences matter in the willingness to migrate illegally and to pay a smuggler. Finally in the fourth chapter, we are interested in the e¤ect of migrants on credit markets in a rural Senegalese context. According to our results, having a migrant in a household increases both the likelihood of having a loan and its size, whether the loan is formal or informal. We also …nd that this positive e¤ect remains signi…cant no matter if the loan is taken for professional activities or simply to buy food.

This thesis is an investigation of the multi-dimensional impact of disaster on community engagement with respect to capacity and vulnerability factors. The historic community of Goderich, Ontario, ravaged by an F3 tornado August 21, 2011, was the study population. A mixed-methods approach utilizing surveys, semi-structured interviews, and key informant interviews was employed in an effort to yield a more confident set of data and help facilitate understanding. Testing results revealed that the community was very aware of its capacities and vulnerabilities and utilized the disaster situation to affect positive change in these conditions. However, disaster itself was only found to stimulate engagement patterns in its immediate aftermath. Therefore, while disaster does not adversely affect community engagement, it also does not encourage sustained engagement activity. It does, however, stimulate extended associations of connection to the community, which may hold the key to long-term engagement motivation.