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Background: The relevance of conducting this thesis is evident by the fact that bus and coach casualties have been “stubbornly stable” in Europe recent years and a need for investigating if a similar trend could be found in Sweden is therefore obvious. It was also important to add new knowledge to the bus and coach research in Sweden, since many areas were scarcely addressed. Aims: To describe bus and coach occupants’ injuries, crash and injury mechanisms generated in a traffic environment based on data from the medical sector. Additional aims were to investigate the injury reducing effect of a 3-point belt, the effect of cross-winds, and crucial factors in the emergency- and rescue response. Material and methods: Injury data analyses were based on a complete ten-year medical data set from a catchment-area with about 130,000 inhabitants. A number of crash studies with the scope in different crash phases were conducted by applying and elaborating the Haddon matrix as a framework. An additional framework, Protocol for Major Incidents was used in order to investi-gate the emergency- and rescue response to a severe coach crash. Results: Between the first and second five-year period, the incidence of injured in non-crash in-cidents was increased by 24%. In non-crash incidents, 54% were injured; 2/3 while alighting from a bus or coach. The pre-crash factor cross-wind, in addition to vehicle design, vehicle speed and road friction, was investigated in ten crashes. It was confirmed that cross-wind, in relation to vehicle speed and slippery road conditions, needs more attention. The importance of goods load-ing and passengers’ position in the bus, was indicated by the fact that a displacement of the cen-tre of mass rearwards with 10% increased the necessary coefficient of friction with, on average 45%, which in many cases corresponded to dry road conditions. Three Swedish rollover crashes were analysed with regard to the injury outcome, mechanisms and the possible injury reduction for occupants using a safety belt. A considerable increase in safety for occupants belted with 3-point belts was shown through limiting interior contacts, occupant interaction and the possibility of ejection. Crucial post-crash factors in the emergency- and rescue response showed that ordi-nary ways of working and equipment are not always useful and proper equipment for lifting a coach body is essential in the case of a rollover. Finally, the communication between the hospitals is important, and the telephone systems may be overloaded by calls from worried relatives and media. Conclusions: In non-crash events: Non-crash events constitute a majority of all bus and coach casualties with a high proportion of elderly female occupants among the MAIS 2+ injury cases. Boarding and, especially alighting causes many injuries to the lower extremities. In the pre-crash phase: Cross-winds do affect the safety of buses and coaches and requires more at-tention. Seat belt usage among bus and coach occupants has to be increased. In the crash phase: Rollover and ejection are the major causes behind serious and fatal injuries to bus and coach occupants, consequently, retentive glazing, pillars or rails need more attention. An upgrade from 2-point seat belts to 3-point seat belts yields an increase in the estimated injury re-duction from approximately 50% up to 80% for the MAIS 2+ casualties in a rollover crash. In the post-crash phase: In order to be able to lift a coach body proper equipment originated from experience and development is essential in a rescue operation of a crashed bus or coach. Fur-thermore, to improve the emergency response inside crashed coaches proper methods originated from experience need to be developed. Euro NBAP: Based on the results and conclusions generated in this thesis, a European New Bus and Coach Assessment Programme is suggested, which would provide bus and coach occupants with a assessment programme similar to the Euro NCAP.

Este trabalho inicia com uma contextualização histórica e motivação, seguida por revisão bibliográfica nos tópicos discutidos: segurança veicular, crash box, crashworthiness, absorvedores de energia, tubos de impacto, metamodelos, algoritmos genéticos, Planejamento de Experimentos (DoE - Design of Experiments), origami e engenharia, e métodos de otimização na engenharia. Em seguida, o pesquisador propõe um experimento baseado em simulações, avaliando diversas crash box em forma de origami criadas a partir da variação de seus parâmetros dimensionais. Através de um algoritmo baseado em metamodelos, o autor realiza uma análise com o objetivo de maximizar a energia absorvida específica (Specific Energy Absorption - SEA) e a uniformidade de carga (Load Uniformity - LU). A fronteira de Pareto resultante dos dois objetivos é analisada de acordo a exemplos de critérios de decisão, e a configuração escolhida é então comparada a uma crash box da indústria. A configuração escolhida apresenta uma massa quatro vezes menor, e uma uniformidade de carga semelhante à crash box da indústria. Conclui com novas proposições de trabalhos, envolvendo outros métodos de otimização disponíveis. / This research begins with a historical background and motivation, followed by a bibliographic review on the discussed topics: vehicle safety, crash box, crashworthiness, energy absorbers, impact tubes, metamodels, Design of Experiments (DOE), origami and engineering, and optimization in engineering. Next, the researcher proposes a simulation-based experiment, evaluating origami crash boxes created through the variation of several dimensional parameters. Through a metamodel-based algorithm, the author performs an analysis with the objective of maximizing the Specific Energy Absorption (SEA) and the load uniformity (LU). The resultant Pareto frontier of the two objectives is analyzed according to examples of decision criteria, and the chosen design is compared to a crash box from industry. The chosen design presents four times less mass, and a load uniformity similar to the crash box from industry. The research concludes with propositions for new themes, involving other optimization methods available.

Depuis quelques années, l'industrie automobile s'intéresse au développement d'adhésifs crashs. Ces produits donnent aux assemblages collés des performances exceptionnelles en tenue mécanique statique, en fatigue et en tenue au crash. Ces adhésifs sont formulés pour s'adapter de façon optimale aux procédés de mise en œuvre de l'industrie automobile. L'objectif de l'étude est de déterminer les mécanismes d'adhésion, au cours d'un vieillissement humide, pour différentes chimies de surface et la cinétique des phénomènes engendrant des variations des niveaux d'adhérence et des modes de rupture. Dans cette thèse, des systèmes industriels, le test de traction-cisaillement et le cataplasme humide ont été retenus. Une approche combinant chimie et physique de l'adhésif, de l'acier galvanisé et du joint de colle a été menée. Cette approche multi-technique a permis de mettre en évidence les phénomènes responsables de la perte d'adhérence d'un assemblage acier galvanisé/adhésif crash au cours d'un vieillissement hygrothermique. L'interphase apparaît comme la zone la plus sensible aux contraintes mécaniques avant et après quelques jours de vieillissement. En revanche, pour des temps de vieillissement plus importants, la couche de corrosion devient la zone de faible cohésion. L'étude de l'influence de la chimie de surface des substrats d'acier galvanisé sur les propriétés d'adhérence des assemblages collés montre une meilleure réactivité et donc une meilleure tenue mécanique des substrats contenant davantage de zinc et d'hydroxydes que d'aluminium et d'oxydes. Une attention plus particulière a été portée sur la caractérisation fine de la chimie de surface des aciers galvanisés. / Since few years, automotive industry tends to develop crash adhesives. By bonding metal sheets with a continuous bead of crash adhesive, automotive manufacturers can significantly improve both body stiffuess and crashworthiness. The crosslinking conditions of the adhesive on industrial surface (galvanized steel) without cleaning correspond to those used industrially (Electrocoat product). The aim of this work is to determine adhesion mechanisms during hydrothennal ageing for different surface chemistry and kinetics of phenomena generating variations of adhesion levels and failure locus. For this study industrial materials (galvanized steel and epoxy crash adhesive), lap-shear test and humid cataplasm were selected. An approach combining chemistry and physics of the adhesive, substrate and joints was led. This multi-technical approach can be of major interest for the study of phenomena responsible of adhesion loss for adhesively bonded joints in moist environment. So the failure is located in a metal/polymer interphase during the first period of ageing then the failure shifts within a surface layer of corrosion products. The influence of surface chemistry of galvanized steel substrates on metal/polymer adhesion was also studied. The results show a better reactivity and consequently better mechanical properties for substrates with zinc and hydroxides than aluminum and oxides. In this approach, a precise characterization of surface chemistiy was led by XPS methodology.

本篇論文的主要研究目的是希望探討Didier所發展出的金融危機預測模型是否也能夠適用於預測復甦現象?如同先前許多研究所指出的，美國股市指數波動在崩盤以及復甦下呈現截然不同的現象。當在復甦時，指數成長緩慢，波動程度小。但是當蕭條時，指數波動程度大，並且快速。這些差異增加了使用同一種方法來預測金融復甦與危機的困難度。 / Purpose of this study was to investigate Can the crisis prediction model proposed by Didier Sornette still work on blooming. As previous studies pointed out that the U.S. stock market index fluctuated different when under the blooming stage and the recession stage. When Economic recovery, a change into the positive cycle, the stock market index rose slowly, the index change in the short term rate is small. When recession came, changes in stock market index fiercely. These differences make it hard to using the same way predict the economic recovery and collapse.

Southeastern states have about 26 percent of the nations total fatalities, and are about 24 percent above the national mean over recent years. Descriptive statistics, graphs, and figures are used to illustrate and quantify the crash trends, which depict a comprehensive picture of status and trends of the fatal crashes in southeastern states. The severity of crashes is studied as a function of characteristics of the person involved in the crash, vehicle, traffic condition, physical road geometry, and environmental factors. Detailed geometric feature data were collected for this study, which makes it possible to investigate the relationship between geometric features and crash severity. This study identifies causal factors contributing to the high fatality rate in southeastern states, and sheds light on the differences and similarities among these states for reducing the severity of fatal crashes, by developing multinomial logit models to explain the severity and type of fatal crashes.

The primary objective of the study is to evaluate the safety performance of different freeway exit types used in current practical designs. More specific, the research objectives include the following two parts: 1) to compare the safety performance of different design types at freeway diverge areas and exit ramp sections; and 2) to identify the impact factors contributing to the crashes happening at these two specific segments. The study area includes four subjects, the freeway widely-spaced diverge areas; the freeway closely-spaced diverge areas; the left-side off-ramps and the exit ramp sections. For the freeway diverge areas, design types were defined based on the number of lanes used by vehicular traffic to exit freeways and lane-balance theory. Four exit ramp types were considered for the widely-spaced diverge area, including single-lane exit ramps (Type 1), sing-lane exit ramps without a taper (Type 2), two-lane exit ramps with an optional lane (Type 3), and two-lane exit ramps without an optional lane (Type 4). For the closely-spaced diverge areas, three types, named as Type A, Type B and Type C, are selected to compare the safety performances among the three types. For the left-side off-ramp at the freeway diverge area, this study examined the two most widely used design types at the left-side freeway diverge areas in Florida, which are defined as Type I (one-lane left-side off-ramp), and Type II (two-lane left-side off-ramp). Type I is comparable to Type 1 design type and Type II is comparable to Type 3 design type at widely-spaced freeway diverge area. For the exit ramp sections, four ramp configurations, including diamond, out connection, free-flow loop and parclo loop, were considered. Cross-sectional comparisons were conducted to compare the crash frequency, the crash rate, the crash severity and target crash types between different design groups. Crash predictive models were also built to quantify the impacts of various contributing factors. The results of this study would expectedly help transportation decision makers develop tailored technical guidelines governing the selection of the optimum design combinations at freeway diverge areas and exit ramp sections.

Doctor of Philosophy / Civil Engineering / Sunanda Dissanayake / Safe and efficient flow of traffic through work zones must be established by improving work zone conditions. Therefore, identifying the factors associated with the severity and the frequency of work zone crashes is important. According to current statistics from the Federal Highway Administration, 2,372 fatalities were associated with motor vehicle traffic crashes in work zones in the United States during the four years from 2010 to 2013. From 2002 to 2014, an average of 1,612 work zone crashes occurred in Kansas each year, making it a serious concern in Kansas. Objectives of this study were to analyze work zone crash characteristics, identify the factors associated with crash severity and frequency, and to identify recommendations to improve work zone safety. Work zone crashes in Kansas from 2010 to 2013 were used to develop crash severity models. Ordered probit regression was used to model the crash severities for daytime, nighttime, multi-vehicle and single-vehicle work zone crashes and for work zones crashes in general. Based on severity models, drivers from 26 to 65 years of age were associated with high crash severities during daytime work zone crashes and driver age was not found significant in nighttime work zone crashes. Use of safety equipment was related to reduced crash severities regardless of the time of the crash. Negative binomial regression was used to model the work zone crash frequency using work zones functioned in Kansas in 2013 and 2014. According to results, increased average daily traffic (AADT) was related to higher number of work zone crashes and work zones in operation at nighttime were related to reduced number of work zone crashes. Findings of this study were used to provide general countermeasure ideas for improving safety of work zones.

Suite à l’évolution de la réglementation relative aux dispositifs de retenue pour enfants en juillet 2013, une campagne d’évaluation expérimentale a permis de constater que la situation des plus jeunes impliqués dans un choc latéral était particulièrement critique. Pour y remédier, une méthodologie originale a été développée dans le but de dimensionner les matériaux d’absorption d’énergie « idéaux » à intégrer aux sièges-auto au niveau des zones d’impact de la tête, de l’épaule et du bassin. Une étude paramétrique basée sur ce concept a alors consisté à piloter la retenue de ces trois segments corporels dans le but de minimiser, soit les critères réglementaires (mannequins Q0 et Q1), soit les critères biomécaniques (modèle hybride Q0-6WOC). Les recommandations issues de cette étude ont ensuite été appliquées à un dispositif de retenue existant afin de l’optimiser en choc latéral. Après avoir vérifié que les valeurs d’accélération linéaire résultante de la tête et de HPC étaient bien inférieures aux seuils imposés par la réglementation, un modèle par Eléments Finis (EF) du siège-auto optimisé a été développé puis validé en situation dynamique. Finalement, après couplage de ce modèle EF du dispositif de retenue optimisé avec le modèle hybride Q0-6WOC, il a été montré que les résultats de simulation numérique en choc latéral étaient deux fois plus faibles que ceux obtenus avec le dispositif de retenue de référence. / Following changes in Child Restraint System (CRS) regulation in July 2013, an experimental CRS evaluation campaign has been conducted. Then, it has been noticed that the situation amongst the youngest involved in side impact was particularly critical. An original methodology has been therefore developed in order to define the “best” energy absorption materials to use in child seats for head, shoulder and pelvis areas. A parametric study in which the restraint of each body segments was independently piloted has then been conducted. The aim was to minimize either regulatory criteria of Q0 and Q1 dummies, or biomechanical criteria based on Q0-6WOC hybrid model. Those recommendations have thereafter been applied to improve an existing child restraint system under side impact. First, it has been checked that resultant linear acceleration of the head and HPC criteria were below regulation limits. Second, Finite Element (FE) model of the optimized car seat has been created and validated in several dynamical steps. Third, both reference child restraint system and optimized child seat has been evaluated in side impact with Q0-6WOC hybrid model. Finally, it has been showed that technical changes helped to cut in half the biomechanical results.