Contexte : il est possible qu’une victime subisse de multiples conséquences d’accident de la route,conséquences pouvant retentir durablement sur sa vie. Cependant, peu d’études permettent de connaitre leprofil du blessé grave ainsi que les facteurs prédictifs de son devenir. De plus, il existe peu d'outilsprédictifs servant à prédire les conséquences post-accidentelles. L’objectif de la thèse est de caractériserces conséquences, de chercher les éléments pronostiques de gravité des conséquences un an aprèsl’accident et de donner une évaluation, à partir de données réelles, de la qualité de prédiction del’indicateur de déficience à un an appelé IIS (Injury Impairment Score - un indice de déficience - défini apriori à partir des lésions- et utilisé fréquemment).Méthodes : la thèse est réalisée dans le cadre de la cohorte ESPARR (Étude et Suivi d’une Populationd’Accidentés de la Route dans le Rhône), qui s’appuie sur les données du Registre des accidents de lacirculation du Rhône, et qui inclut 1372 sujets blessés dans des accidents de la route dont 1168 sujets âgésde 16 ans et plus. Parmi ces sujets, 886 adultes ont répondu à un questionnaire de suivi à un an, 616 sujetsont des données complètes et sont classés dans des groupes homogènes en fonction de leur devenir à unan par l'analyse des correspondances multiples et la méthode de classification hiérarchique. L’analyse desfacteurs prédictifs de leur appartenance à un de ces groupes de victimes, mesurés à la date de l'accident, aété effectuée à l’aide de modèles de régressions logistiques multinomiales pondérés. L'évaluation de l'IISsur les données réelles est réalisée en regardant la cohérence entre l'IIS et les différents facteurs mesurés àun an.Résultats : cinq groupes homogènes au niveau des conséquences de l’accident à un an ont été identifiés :le groupe-1 contient 206 sujets, dont une majorité est considérée en bonne récupération ; le groupe-2concerne les sujets ayant uniquement des conséquences physiques ; les groupes 3, 4 et 5 concernent lessujets ayant des conséquences multiples. À part les conséquences physiques en lien avec les sujets dansces groupes, certains plus en lien avec des répercussions sur la vie social (groupe-3), d’autres en lien avecdes difficultés sociales ou environnementales (groupe-4). Le groupe-5 comprend tous les sujets quisouffrent de syndrome post-commotionnel de la population d’étude. Après avoir ajusté sur plusieursvariables recueillies lors de l'accident, notre étude montre que, en plus des facteurs déjà évoqués dans lalittérature (âge, gravité…), le niveau de fragilité socioéconomique et le fait d'avoir un proche blessé dansl'accident sont également des facteurs prédisant le devenir des victimes d’un accident. En ce qui concernel'évaluation de l'IIS sur les données réelles, nous trouvons que le niveau des conséquences prédites par l’IIS ne correspond pas parfaitement à celui observé en réalité à un an quels que soient les facteurs mesurés.Conclusion : un an après l’accident, de nombreuses victimes d'accident de la route, même parmi cellessouffrant de lésions légères, continuent de présenter de multiples problèmes tant sur leur santé physiqueque mentale, sur le plan social ainsi que sur leur environnement. Dans une perspective de réadaptation à lavie quotidienne, ces résultats peuvent être utiles à l’amélioration de la prise en charge des accidentés de laroute. / Background: it is possible that victims can suffer from multiple problems after an accident, and this canbe seen in the people with the most serious consequences. However, few studies allow us to know theprofile and prognostic factors of severity of consequences after the accident in this population of victims.Moreover, there are few tools to predict 1-year post-traumatic sequelae in road crash victims.The thesis aims to determine subgroups of victims with similar outcomes 1 year after the crash andpredictive factors for attribution to these subgroups and validate sequelae prediction by the InjuryImpairment Score (IIS), in comparison with the one year outcomes.Methods: the thesis is a part of the broader ESPARR study based on the Rhône Registry of Road TrafficCasualties. The ESPARR cohort comprised 1,372 subjects, including 1,168 aged 16 years. Among 886adult subjects who responded to a follow-up questionnaire one year later, the main analysis was carriedout on 616 participants, who completed a self-report questionnaire on health, social, emotional andfinancial status 1 year after a crash. The multiple correspondence analysis and hierarchical clusteringmethod was implemented to produce homogeneous road-crash victim subgroups according to differencesin outcome. Baseline (time of accident) predictive factors for subgroup attribution were analysed onweighted multinomial logistic regression models. We used outcomes data at 1-year follow-up of roadinjury to validate the ability of IIS to predict sequelae.Results: five different victim groups were identified in terms of consequences one year after the crash:one group (206 subjects, 33.4%) presented few problems, one group with essentially physical sequelae,one group with essentially physical and social problems, and two groups presented many problems (oneincluded more victims with psychological problem and less environment problem). As well as the knownprognostic factors of age, initial injury severity and lesion type, socioeconomic fragility and the fact of arelative being involved in the accident emerged as being predictive of poor outcome one year later. IIS, inthis injured population, failed to predict sequelae one year later as measured by real data.Conclusion: one year after a road accident, victims may still experience multiple problems in terms notonly of physical health but also of mental health, social life and environment. Poor outcome may bepredicted both from accident-related factors and from victims' socioeconomic fragility. These findings areuseful in guiding prevention in terms not only of recovery of health status but also of recovery of sociallife in the best possible environment.

La présence de distorsions inévitables fait que les méthodes classiques de réduction d'échelle<br />sont inexploitables pour la prédiction du comportement non-linéaire de structures en<br />composite stratifié. Dans un premier temps, une nouvelle méthode capable de tenir compte<br />des effets d'échelle est développée en s'appuyant sur l'exemple d'absorbeurs d'énergie en<br />verre E / époxy sollicités en compression axiale statique. Dans un second temps, une étude<br />fréquentielle est réalisée de façon à étendre cette méthode aux sollicitations en dynamique<br />rapide. Des comparaisons avec les résultats issus de la similitude de Cauchy mettent en<br />évidence un gain important en terme de précision des prédictions des paliers d'effort. Enfin,<br />une modélisation par éléments finis est réalisée afin d'étudier les différents phénomènes qui<br />se produisent lors du crash et de tester l'utilisation de la similitude indirecte. Ce modèle<br />numérique permet de préciser les causes de l'effet d'échelle détecté précédemment.

<p>This master thesis deals with experimental data that were collected through a crash avoidance experiment (which was lead by Professor Lennart Strandberg) in February and March 1990. Fifty-two ordinary drivers were instructed to perform two different kinds of manoeuvres on ice to determine the effectiveness of antilock brakes and of four tyre configurations. Results were reported at the 1991 ESV Conference.</p><p>The first aim of this master thesis is to check and revise the measured data (used by Prof. Strandberg in courses at Linköping University). Checking out many hours of video recordings from onboard cameras reveals various protocol inconsistencies and errors, which in some cases it is not possible to correct. This work might increase the reliability of any further analysis of these data.</p><p>The second aim is to elaborate on the revised data and to test the hypothesis that quick steering is a key factor to not lose control of the car during a crash avoidance manoeuvre. Different variables are introduced and used to estimate the steering wheel velocity and lateral friction use.</p><p>The results show linear (positive) correlations between lateral friction use and steering wheel velocity. The greatest steering wheel velocities appear in the tests with loss-of-control and reach values up to 1180 degrees per second. However, the 1990 experimental layout was not intended for this type of research questions and it seems difficult to determine the causal relationship between quick steering and control of the car. Some cases of excessive steering input might have occurred. The results indicate that quick steering by itself is not enough to guarantee the total control of the car. An early reaction to the skid might be necessary too. Evidently, further research is needed.</p>

<p>Scania has a policy to attain a high crashworthiness standard and their trucks have to conform to Swedish cab safety standards. The main objective of this thesis is to clarify which parameter variations, present during the second part of the Swedish cab crashworthiness test on a Scania R-series cab, that have significance on the intrusion response. An LS-DYNA FE-model of the test case is analysed where parameter variations are introduced through the use of the probabilistic analysis tool LS-OPT.</p><p>Example of analysed variations are the sheet thickness variation as well as the material variations such as stress-strain curve of the structural components, but also variations in the test setup such as the pendulum velocity and angle of approach on impact are taken into account. The effect of including the component forming in the analysis is investigated, where the variations on the material parameters are implemented prior to the forming. An additional objective is to analyse the influence of simulation and model dependent variations and weigh their respective effect on intrusion with the above stated physical variations.</p><p>A submodel is created due to the necessity to speed up the simulations since the numerous parameter variations yield a large number of different designs, resulting in multiple analyses.</p><p>Important structural component sensitivities are taken from the results and should be used as a pointer where to focus the attention when trying to increase the robustness of the cab. Also, the results show that the placement of the pendulum in the y direction (sideways seen from the driver perspective) is the most significant physical parameter variation during the Swedish pendulum test. It is concluded that to be able to achieve a fair comparison of the structural performance from repeated crash testing, this pendulum variation must be kept to a minimum. </p><p>Simulation and model dependent parameters in general showed to have large effects on the intrusion. It is concluded that further investigations on individual simulation or model dependent parameters should be performed to establish which description to use. </p><p>Mapping material effects from the forming simulation into the crash model gave a slight stiffer response compared to the mean pre-stretch approximations currently used by Scania. This is still however a significant result considering that Scanias approximations also included bake hardening effects from the painting process. </p>

This thesis develops a GIS-based Bayesian approach for area-wide traffic crash analysis. Five years of crash data from Houston, Texas, are analyzed using a geographic information system (GIS), and spatial-temporal patterns of relative crash risk are identified based on a hierarchical Bayesian approach. This Bayesian approach is used to filter the uncertainty in the data and identify and rank roadway segments with potentially high relative risks for crashes. The results provide a sound basis to take preventive actions to reduce the risks in these segments. To capture the real safety indications better, this thesis differentiates the risks in different directions of the roadways, disaggregates different road types, and utilizes GIS to analyze and visualize the spatial relative crash risks in 3-D views according to different temporal scales. Results demonstrate that the approach is effective in spatially smoothing the relative crash risks, eliminating the instability of estimates while maintaining real safety trends. The posterior risk maps show high-risk roadway segments in 3-D views, which is more reader friendly than the conventional 2-D views. The results are also useful for travelers to choose relatively safer routes.

This paper offers empirical evidence on the power of Sornette et al's [2001] model of bubbles and crashes regarding the German stock market between 1960 and 2009. We identify relevant time periods and describe them with the function given by Sornette et al's model. Our results show some evidence in predicting crashes with the understanding of logarithmic periodic structures that are hidden in the stock price trajectories. It was shown that for the DAX most of the relevant parameters determining the shape of the logarithmic periodic structures are lying in the expected interval researched by Sornette et al. Further more the paper implicitly shows that the point of time of former crashes can be predicted with the presented formula. We conclude that the concept of financial time series conceived as purely random objects should be generalised as to admit complexity.

Background: Globally, and in Sweden, passenger railway transport is steadily increasing. Sweden has been relatively free from severe train crashes in the last decades, but the railway infrastructure is alarmingly worn and overburdened, which may be one reason for an increasing number of reported mishaps. Worldwide, major train crashes/disasters are a frequent cause of mass casualty incidents. Several shortcomings, especially within the crash and post-crash phases cause severe consequences for the passengers. Aim: To investigate the consequences of train crashes on passengers, focusing on factors of importance in the crash and post-crash phases. The specific aims are: (I) to identify the historical development and magnitude of passenger train disasters globally on various continents and countries, (II, III) to identify injury panorama and injury objects in two train crashes, (IV) to explore survivor´s experiences from a train crash, and (V) to explore their experiences of journalists and media coverage. Methods: Study I is a register study based on 529 railway disasters worldwide, whereas studies II-V are case studies from the two latest severe train crashes in Sweden (Nosaby and Kimstad). These studies are based on 73 and 21 passengers respectively. Studies I-III is essentially quantitative where descriptive statistics (I, III), multivariate analysis (III), and content analysis (II, III) are used. Studies II and III are also supplemented by semi-structured interviews. Studies IV and V are qualitative and the interviews (n=14, n=30) have been analyzed with qualitative content analysis. Study IV is also supplemented with quantitative data. Results: The number of railway disasters, fatalities, and non-fatally injured passengers has increased throughout the last hundred years - particularly during the last four decades (1970–2009) when 88% of all disasters occurred (I). Passengers in the first overturned carriage suffered most severe and lethal injuries (III). Internal structures such as tables, chairs, internal walls, as well as luggage, other passengers (II, III), glass (II), and wood pellets (III) induced many of the injuries. Those who traveled facing forward with a table in front of them, in carriages that did not overturn, were more likely to sustain injuries to their abdomen/pelvis than those without a table (III). Passengers who traveled rear facing had higher rates of whiplash injuries. Surviving a train crash was experienced as "living in a mode of existential threat". The long term consequences however were diverse for different persons (IV). All experienced that they had cheated death, but some became "shackled by history", whereas others overcame the "haunting of unforgettable memories." The centrality of others and the importance of reconstructing the turn of events were important when "dealing with the unthinkable". The media coverage were experienced as positive in the recovery process and the journalists were also perceived as helpful (V). By some the journalist’s nevertheless were also perceived as harmful or negligible, and the subsequent media coverage as either uncomfortable or insignificant. Conclusion: Despite extensive crash avoidance systems severe railway crashes still occur. Improved interior safety, as has been implemented in the automobile and aviation industries, would have an important reduction in injuries and facilitate evacuation. Being surrounded by family, friends, fellow passengers and participating in crash investigations, and experiencing descriptive media coverage were some crucial factors when dealing with the traumatic event and should be promoted.

This thesis investigates the associations between crash outcomes, the existence and type of driver distraction as well as driver’s age. The crash outcomes considered in this thesis consist of the type of crash as well as the injury severity sustained by occupants involved in the crash. An ordered logit model was built to predict the likelihood of severe injuries and a multinomial model was developed to predict the likelihood that a driver will be involved in one of three common crash types: singular, angular, and rearend. In these models, various factors (e.g., weather, driver’s gender, and speeding) have been statistically controlled for, but the main focus was on the interaction of driver’s age and distraction type. The findings of this thesis have implications for policy making and prioritizing capabilities of distraction-related safety systems.

There is no international regulation for the frontal collision of the buses, protecting their occupants and partners in traffic. There are some regulation such as ECE R-80 which deals with strength of seat structure of the coaches and their anchorages strength. There is increasing need to focus issues like occupant protection and full scale crash testing regulation for buses. This thesis attempts to collect possible subjects required for international regulation required for crashworthiness of transit buses. This research attempts to develop and validate a model of transit bus for all three impact conditions. The full finite element model is developed with help hypermesh software and its validation and analysis is done with help Ls-Dyna nonlinear finite element solver. The cost of actual testing and secrecy maintained by manufacturers make research process difficult and increase the importance of computer simulations. To boost the research of crash worthiness of transit need for computer model is felt. This thesis examines several frontal crash test procedures and evaluates how well each procedure meets the objective. This validated model is used to analyze various real world impact scenarios and its analysis with European and federal regulation. This validated model is used to extract crash pulses of various impact scenarios at the center of gravity of the bus. These extracted crash pulses are applied to the madymo model to estimate the injuries to occupants of the bus. This thesis discusses the design aspects of bus frontal impact behavior as one of the main subjects of bus crashworthiness and results of previous full scale tests comparing the Fem simulation results carried out on the transit bus. / Thesis (M.S.)--Wichita State University, College of Engineering, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering / "December 2006."

This thesis investigates the associations between crash outcomes, the existence and type of driver distraction as well as driver’s age. The crash outcomes considered in this thesis consist of the type of crash as well as the injury severity sustained by occupants involved in the crash. An ordered logit model was built to predict the likelihood of severe injuries and a multinomial model was developed to predict the likelihood that a driver will be involved in one of three common crash types: singular, angular, and rearend. In these models, various factors (e.g., weather, driver’s gender, and speeding) have been statistically controlled for, but the main focus was on the interaction of driver’s age and distraction type. The findings of this thesis have implications for policy making and prioritizing capabilities of distraction-related safety systems.