[pt] Este trabalho investiga empiricamente como as taxas de negociação no mercado secundário de debêntures se correlacionam com mudanças na atividade econômica do país. A base de dados analisada se refere a debêntures com remuneração indexada a CDI (mais) spread de janeiro de 2010 até dezembro de 2019. Para isso, criou-se um Índice de Spread de Crédito, visando ser um indicador da atividade econômica. Em um segundo passo, o Índice é decomposto em um componente que captura a expectativa de default das companhias, observando seus dados dos balanços financeiros, e um componente residual – o Excess Bond Premium. Em linha com a literatura, o estudo sugere que um aumento do Excess Bond Premium evidencia uma redução na oferta de crédito, assim como uma alta nas taxas das debêntures, o que, segundo a teoria estudada, leva a uma desaceleração na atividade econômica. O estudo sugere que um aumento de 100 basis points no Excess Bond Premium leva a uma retração de aproximadamente 4,2 por cento na taxa de crescimento do PIB. / [en] This paper empirically investigates how trading rates in the secondary corporate bond s market correlate with changes in the country s economic activity. The database consists of corporate bonds with floating rates tied to CDI (plus) spread from January 2010 to December 2019. For this purpose, a Credit Spread Index was created, aiming to be an indicator of economic activity. The second step was to decompose the Index into a component that captures companies default expectations, observing their financial statement data, and a residual component – the Excess Bond Premium. In line with references, the paper suggests that an increase in Excess Bond Premium, generates a reduction in the supply of credit, as well as an increase in the rates of corporate bonds, which, according to the theory studied, leads to a slowdown in economic activity. The study suggests that an increase of 100 basis points in the Excess Bond Premium leads to a drop of 4.2 percent in GDP growth rate.

Master of Science / Department of Agricultural Economics / Ted C. Schroeder / It is clear that consumers rely on certain experience and credence attributes when purchasing beef products from the retail meat case. It is essential for all beef industry sectors to recognize the complexity of consumers buying behavior. The objective of this research is to determine if there are incentives to brand beef products and to determine what types of brands entertain price premiums as well as what levels these premiums exists. Retail scanner data, collected from 2004 through March 2009, was used for the evaluation of branded beef and also to determine what other product attributes benefit with a premium to six specific cuts of beef. Hedonic models were estimated using Ordinary Least Squares regressions to determine which variables affected the overall price per pound of each of the six cuts of beef chosen to analyze. Results indicate that there is an incentive to brand beef products at the retail level. Local, regional, national, and store brands all garnered premiums across the six models for the beef cuts, steak, roast, ground, strip, cube, and ribs in relation to products with no brand. Other variables that garnered premiums across all models include organic, Prime quality grade, and Kosher and Kosher-Glatt religious labels. Steak exhibited the highest mean price per pound followed by cube, roast, strip, ribs and ground. In all of the models estimated explaining price variation, there were few coefficients that were statistically insignificant. Additional modeling was done to determine if outlier observations were influencing the regression results. The sensitivity analyses resulted in small changes in parameter estimates indicating the identified influential observations did not have undue impact on the parameter estimates.

This study examines how journalistic content can be affected when a local newspapers website changes its business model to what is commonly known as a premium paywall. This study is based upon data provided by the local newspaper Barometern. The data concerns the number of online articles included in fifteen subject and geographically defined categories. The data was collected from two three month long periods, one before and one after the introduction of the news paper paywall that was installed in October of 2014. The study finds that the total number of articles published after the introduction of the paywall was significantly higher than before but that the share of articles included in the different subject categories did not change considerably for paying readers. For non- paying readers however, the data show that the share of articles for the different subject and geographical categories changed significantly. Even though the data from this study cannot confirm a correlation, it does highlight a possible connection between media competition in different local markets and subject matters and the amount of articles that are placed behind the newspapers online paywall in that category. This means that non-paying readers in this case got access to a large number of articles included in some categories and only a small portion of articles included in some other categories. Non-paying readers not only got access to a smaller number of articles but also to a different content profile than paying readers.

Over the past three decades, economic reforms have brought about dramatic changes in China. The wave of structural and economic reforms regarding the State-owned Sector (SOS), and the surge of the Non-State-owned Sector (NSOS), have influenced returns in the labor market, such as the returns concerning human capital and political capital in urban China. Presumably, the NSOS would be more marketed-oriented compared to the SOS, and it would have different returns concerning political capital, as represented by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) membership. This is likely because the NSOS would not value Party membership as much as the SOS does. The question of how Party membership is rewarded in the two sectors might also change with the development of the two ownership sectors, as more time passes since the establishment of the economic reforms. I examine whether CCP members display any earnings advantage in these two sectors, and I also explore how such an advantage might have changed over time. Unlike most of the previous studies that have focused on earnings in urban China, I treat Party membership affiliation and ownership sector selection as being endogeneous. I apply the Mlogit -OLS two-stage selection correction estimation proposed by Lee (1983) and discover evidence which suggests that Party membership serves as a proxy for both political and productive skills. A flat Party premium in the SOS and a decreasing Party premium in the NSOS suggest that the Party card served a similar function in the payment scheme present in the SOS during this three year span, whereas the NSOS valued political capital by a decreasing amount over time. The evidence presented in my dissertation indicates that economic reforms tend to mitigate the earning advantage of Party members that occurs as a result of unequal treatment based on Party membership. This evidence suggests that CCP membership is losing its earning power, at least in the NSOS. In addition, the CCP members sacrifice the benefits previously possessed in the adaptation to the transformed economic environment in urban China. However, the rewards to other forms of human capital have increased over time.

This thesis contributes to the literature on the consumption-portfolio choice under uncertainty and is motivated by several empirical failures of the standard consumption-based capital asset pricing model (CCAPM). This canonical model has proven disappointing empirically and has even been questioned whether it is theoretically valuable and practically useful even if it is in some sense the only model we have. The frustration is due to that the model performs no better in practice and generates some well-known consumption puzzles and asset pricing puzzles. The purpose of the thesis is to reexamine these puzzles and then to resolve them. After the debate of Hansen and Singleton (1983) and Hall (1988), the estimates of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) of consumption in a representative agent model have not resulted in any consensus. Based on this observation, the first chapter of this thesis is focused on resolving the elasticity puzzle or the unresponsiveness to interest rates. We propose a new theoretical and empirical perspective on the relationship between consumption growth and asset returns. In the spirit of Hansen and Singleton (1983), we demonstrate that observed growth rate of consumption responds not only to a specific asset return but also to other asset returns. Empirically, US postwar quarterly data are used to fit the regression model derived in the chapter, and the sample period is 1953Q2-2001Q2. Empirical results show that the EIS is greater than 0.1, the maximum value considered possible by Hall (1988). Accordingly, we argue that there is no elasticity puzzle in the standard representative agent model. The second chapter provides an explanation for the puzzle of excess sensitivity of consumption to expected income proposed by Flavin (1981). We exploit consumer's superior information (i.e., windfalls in investments and in income) to integrate the consumption Euler equations into a generalized Euler equation. The implications emerging from the equation can refute much of the empirical evidence against the permanent income hypothesis (PIH). In short, we conclude that consumption growth is sensitive to windfalls in income, but not to expected income. Thus, Friedman's prescient insight is being formally corroborated in standard utility theory. The equation also provides an alternative approach permitting one more precisely to estimate the preference parameters and much easier to identify the time-series properties of labor income. Empirical results based on U.S. postwar quarterly data show that the EIS is significantly positive and the labor income should follow a nonstationary second-order autoregressive process. The last chapter of the thesis, chapter three, attempts to address the equity premium puzzle, proposed by Mehra and Prescott (1985), and the risk-free rate puzzle, proposed by Weil (1989). These two asset pricing puzzles have troubled financial economists for nearly two decades. To date, there is still no convincing solution for the equity premium puzzle. The CCAPM is apparently inconsistent with the data, especially the annual data in the 1889-1978 period used by Mehra and Prescott (1985). This has led many economists to question whether the model should be abandoned. The purpose of the chapter is to resolve the two puzzles, and then to consolidate the Lucas-Breeden paradigm embedded in the standard CCAPM. We demonstrate that the equity premium puzzle is resulted from the gaps between the expected asset returns and the actual ones. These gaps have conventionally been regarded as regression disturbances, and explained as good luck or unexpected windfalls. We introduce an alternative way that, using other good luck to explain a given good luck, can help fill in the specific gap. Results of numerical calculations and parametric estimation show that, the gap has been significantly narrowed down and hence the equity premium and risk-free rate puzzles are successfully resolved.

Statistics is a branch of mathematics which is heavily employed in the area of Actuarial Mathematics. This thesis first reviews the importance of statistical distributions in the analysis of insurance problems and the applications of Statistics in the area of risk and insurance. The Normal, Log-normal, Pareto, Gamma, standard Beta, Frechet, Gumbel, Weibull, Poisson, binomial, and negative binomial distributions are looked at and the importance of these distributions in general insurance is also emphasized. A careful review of literature is to provide practitioners in the general insurance industry with statistical tools which are of immediate application in the industry. These tools include estimation methods and fit statistics popular in the insurance industry. Finally this thesis carries out the task of fitting statistical distributions to the flood loss data in the 50 States of the United States.

This dissertation addresses issues concerning liquidity and its volatility. It consists of two essays. The first essay, "Liquidity, Macro Factors and the U.S. Equity Flows to Emerging Markets", examines the role of liquidity on equity flows from the U.S. to fifteen emerging markets around the world. Since liquidity has many dimensions, an emphasis is placed on utilizing various measures of liquidity. Moreover, both static and dynamic analyses, as well as short and long-horizon regressions, are performed to investigate the research questions. The results suggest that a liquid market attracts flows, after controlling for market size, political openness, exchange rate and other macro factors. Additionally, evidence indicates that the importance of liquidity varies across regions. For instance in the Asian region, the relation between equity flows and volume-related liquidity is weak while that between flows and price impacts of trading is strong. Evidence also supports the relevance of macro factors such as a country's economic freedom. The second essay, "Liquidity Risk Premium Puzzle and Possible Explanations", attempts to resolve the liquidity risk puzzle: a negative relation between returns and liquidity risk, documented by Chordia, Subrahmanyam, and Anshuman (2001b), by employing alternative liquidity measures and by incorporating factors that might potentially affect the relation. The main findings are as follows. The relation between stock returns and volatility of liquidity depends on the measure of liquidity. When liquidity measures are based on trading volume, the results are largely mixed, but when liquidity is measured based on price impact of trading, the relation between returns and volatility of price impacts is positive, as expected. The results are sensitive to time periods examined. Moreover, during extreme down markets, the aversion to liquidity volatility is lower, suggesting behavioral bias might potentially address the puzzle. Empirical findings also suggest that liquidity risk premium tends to be greater for small stocks. Finally, when the VIX index is included as a proxy for investor sentiment, the results indicate that the relation between returns and liquidity risk is significantly positive in four out of five liquidity measures. In sum, the empirical analysis partially but not completely addresses the puzzle.

In the first chapter, we analyze the role of market development, risk premium, and transparency as factors influencing the value of cash in firms listed as American Depository Receipts. Based on the method by Pinkowitz and Williamson (2002), our primary results are as follows. The market value of cash is greater on average for ADR firms than for U.S. firms, and within the ADR sample the value of cash is greater for firms based in less developed countries after 2007 financial crisis but not before. Together, the results suggest that the market development is especially important during more volatile periods. Further, the value of cash is negatively associated with the market risk premium. In addition, the relation between insider trading law execution and the value of cash is statistically insignificant for all periods, but corporate-level transparency as measured by the number of analysts is weakly negatively related to ADR firms’ cash value before 2007 after controlling for the fixed effects. The second chapter attempts to assess the relative importance of superior information and hedging in institutional trading in equity index futures in the Taiwan Futures market for the sample period of January to June 2012. Based on the methodology by Llorente, Michaely, Saar, and Wang (2002), we find that, for the market as a whole, significant informed trading or hedging frequently occur, and the opening minutes tend to be associated with a greater portion of trading motivated by hedging. More important to our purpose, for foreign institutions the absolute value of institutional order imbalance tends to be greater on days when the overall market’s informed trading is greater in the cases of regular contract on Taiwan composite index futures and electronic index futures, but for the dealer and domestic fund groups trading is not correlated with the overall market’s informed trading or hedging. An additional analysis of the relation between past institution trades and current returns provides some evidence implying institutions are informed, but the evidence can also be interpreted as their trades, which account for more than half of the overall trading, having an impact on subsequent trades.

This research consists of two essays. The first essay entitled” Stock Return Forecasting with Sum-of-the-Parts Methodology: Evidence from Around the World”, examines forecasting ability of stock returns by employing the sum-of-the-parts (SOP) modeling technique introduced by Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011).This approach decomposes return into three components of growth in price-earnings ratio, earnings growth, and dividend-price ratio. Each component is forecasted separately and fitted values are used in forecast model to predict stock return. We conduct a series of one-step ahead recursive forecasts for a wide range of developed and emerging markets over the period February 1995 through November 2014. Decomposed return components are forecasted separately using a list of financial variables and the fitted values from the best estimators are used according to out-of-sample performance. Our findings show that the SOP method with financial variables outperforms the historical sample mean for the majority of countries. Second essay entitled,” Equity Premium Predictability under Regime Shifts: International Evidence”, utilizes the modified version of the dividend-price ratio that alleviates some econometric concerns in the literature regarding the non-stationary and persistent predictor when forecasting international equity premium across different regimes. We employ Markov switching technique to address the issue of non-linearity between the equity premium and the predictor. The results show different patterns of equity premium predictability over the regimes across countries by the modified ratio as predictor. In addition, transition probability analysis show the adverse effect of financial crisis on regime transition probabilities by increasing the probability of switching between regimes post-crisis 2007 implying higher risk perceived by investors as a result of uncertainty inherent in regime transitions.

Le droit préférentiel de souscription est un droit individuel de l'actionnaire dont le régime d'exercice a été souligné par une actualité récente. Ce droit a été évoqué à propos des actions de préférence, des abus de majorité et des avantages particuliers. Il est expressément consacré par la loi. La comparaison du droit préférentiel de souscription dans les systèmes juridiques libanais et français a dévoilé la parenté d'origine des deux systèmes, ainsi que des failles dans le premier. Des projets de réformes sont proposés pour placer les sociétés libanaises à égalité avec leurs concurrentes étrangères qui bénéficient d'un règlement mieux adaptées à leurs exigences. Le droit préférentiel de souscription n'est pas reconnu comme un droit intangible. Notre thèse démontre, d'une part, que ce droit constitue la meilleure protection pour les actionnaires. D'autre part, elle montre que la suppression du droit préférentiel de souscription ne peut intervenir que sous la double condition d'une information suffisante des actionnaires et d'un prix d'émission d'actions nouvelles minimum. / The preferential subscription right is an individual right of shareholders which the regime of exercise has been highlighted by recent events. This right has been mentioned regarding preference shares, majority abuse and special advantages. This right is expressly dedicated by the law. The comparison of preferential subscription right in the Lebanese and French legal systems points out the historical relation between the two systems, as well as presence of faults in the first. Reform projects are suggested in order to put the Lebanese companies at the same level with her competing companies. The preferential subscription right is not recognized as an intangible right. Our thesis reveals, firstly, that this right constitutes a perfect protection for the shareholders. Secondly, it indicates that the suppression of the preferential subscription right can only occur under the double condition of sufficient information of the shareholders and an issue price of new shares.