The Swedish forest is currently being debated as to how it should be managed to provide climate mitigation. Forest management can contribute to climate mitigation in mainly two ways. Either through increased sequestration and storage of carbon in the forest or as a consequence of the substitution effect, through which emissions can be avoided by utilizing harvested wood products to replace other emission-intensive products. However, these two climate benefits are at odds with each other, as efforts to increase the sequestration of carbon in the forest by increased conservation will decrease the amount of harvested biomass available for substitution. This fact has led to a disagreement between scholars regarding the climate benefits of increased forest conservation versus the climate benefits of maintaining a high harvest level. The climate benefit of increased forest conservation is influenced by how much additional carbon the growing forest can sequester over time. The climate benefit of forest harvest is instead directly related to the level of achieved substitution effect. As the substitution level is dynamic, it may change in the future due to various technological, economic, and societal developments, which would influence the potential climate benefit of forest harvest. In addition, intensifying forest management as a means to increase forest growth is also commonly suggested as a possible measure for enhancing the climate mitigation potential of the Swedish forest. This study aimed to investigate how the climate mitigation potential of different forest management regimes develops over time based on different potential levels of achieved substitution effect. Based on input data from the National Forest Inventory, the Heureka RegWise system was used to simulate the impact on sequestration of carbon dioxide and the available harvested biomass to be used for substitution for the different forest management regimes over a 150-year period. The results indicate that increased forest conservation provides a higher climate mitigation potential throughout a majority of the 150-year period. However, the climate benefit of increased conservation does diminish over time due to the set-aside forests' declining ability to sequester additional carbon. The rate at which the forest management regimes without increased conservation can catch up is influenced on which level of substitution that is applied. The results also indicate that increased utilization of growth-enhancing practices increases the climate mitigation potential of forest management.

Municipalities globally are recognizing their role in mitigating climate change and are actively working to reduce carbon emissions. This complex challenge is heightened in areas like Northern Sweden, where municipalities are adapting to accommodate new industries essential for meeting global climate targets, subsequently changing the energy landscape. The local administration must not only decarbonize existing energy use but also develop infrastructure for the new industries, all while fostering sustainable and appealing cities where residents aspire to live. However, the trajectory of these changes and the subsequent future energy requirements remain uncertain. This study aims to assist the local administration in navigating through these uncertainties and setting ambitious climate and energy targets aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement and sustainable developments. The research explores how model based scenario analysis can be improved to identify a set of relevant pathways that the municipalities can adopt by employing system analysis, energy system optimization, and scenario analysis. The study focuses on Gällivare municipality in Northern Sweden and employs the TIMES-City model to develop the energy system model of the municipality (RQ1). To identify relevant scenarios for local energy transition a framework for developing "Glocal" scenarios has been established (RQ2). These glocal scenarios incorporate global, national, and local socioeconomic trends into a coherent narrative and provide a more holistic and realistic view of potential future pathways (Paper 2). Additionally, a set of SDG indicators for evaluating the sustainability of different scenarios has been developed and applied in the model (RQ3, Paper 3). While the study focuses on Gällivare, the "glocal" scenario framework and SDG indicators developed in this research can be utilized by municipalities across the globe for identifying their climate and energy targets.

No description available.

The purpose of this study is to investigate how scenario analysis can be used to strategically prepare for the future during uncertain times. The purpose is also to identify uncertainties and trends that could shape the future European financial markets and to develop projections of alternative futures on which a stock exchange could base their strategic decisions. A literature review was conducted which provides insights and tools in order to perform a scenario analysis. This study then investigates how scenario analysis can be applied to European financial markets with a time horizon of 10 years, from the perspective of the case company Nasdaq. The investigation is conducted as an instrumental case study where 12 respondents within Europe’s financial markets have been interviewed. Five of the respondents are case company employees and seven of the respondents are external that cover a wide range of specialties within financial markets. The results show that there are eight key drivers that were considered important and uncertain for the development of European financial markets by year 2030. Four interpretations of these drivers that the case company considered the most interesting were combined into six scenario matrices which resulted in 24 unique scenarios. Three of these were described in detail where future business environments were evaluated through the use of the theoretical framework Porter’s five forces. The scenarios presented in this study are: • Scenario 1: Further globalization and increased competition from alternative marketplaces. • Scenario 2: There has been a further consolidation of stock exchanges and exchanges have remained the dominant marketplace for financial products. • Scenario 3: Brexit will have a major impact on financial markets and more regional economies. The scenarios show how some of the identified drivers could shape the future business environment. These projections of alternative futures can be used by a stock exchange in their strategic decision making and enables the multi-level strategic conversation within the organization to develop and continue. Such a conversation helps establish a shared mental model of the external environment and the organization itself. Since the business environment is ever changing, the aim is to continuously use scenario analysis to evaluate and improve strategic discussions. It also allows organizations to learn and change from its own experiences to identify new opportunities. And since there can be no learning without action, the ultimate aim of scenario analysis is to make an impact on strategic decisions by taking reflection-based action. / Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka hur scenarioanalys kan tillämpas för att på ett strategiskt sätt förbereda sig på en möjligen osäker framtid. Syftet är också att identifiera osäkerheter och trender som skulle kunna forma finansiella marknader i Europa och utifrån dessa, utveckla projektioner av alternativa framtider som en börs kan använda sig av för att basera strategiska beslut på. En litteraturstudie genomfördes vilket gav insikter och verktyg för utförandet av en scenario analys. Denna studie undersökte sedan hur scenario analys kan appliceras på de europeiska finansiella marknaderna från ett börs-perspektiv med en tidshorisont på 10 år. Undersökningen genomfördes genom en instrumental fallstudie där 12 respondenter inom Europas finansiella marknader intervjuades. Fem av respondenterna var från fallföretaget och sju respondenter var externa som tillsammans täcker ett brett spektrum av specialistkunskaper inom finansiella marknader. Resultatet av studien visar att det finns åtta nyckelfaktorer som ansågs vara både viktiga och osäkra för utvecklingen av Europas finansiella marknader till år 2030. Fyra tolkningar av dessa faktorer som fallföretaget ansåg vara de mest intressanta kombinerades och bildade sex scenariomatriser som resulterade i 24 unika scenarion. Tre av dessa är beskrivna i detalj där det framtida affärsmiljöerna är utvärderade utifrån det teoretiska ramverket Porter’s five forces. De scenarion som presenteras i studien är: • Scenario 1: Ökad konkurrens från alternativa marknadsplatser och fortsatt globalisering. • Scenario 2: Börser är fortsatt den dominanta marknadsplatsen för finansiella produkter och det har varit en fortsatt konsolidering av börser. • Scenario 3: Mer regionala ekonomier och Brexit har haft en stor påverkan på finansiella marknader. Scenariona visar hur några av de identifierade nyckelfaktorerna kan komma att forma den framtida affärsmiljön. Dessa projektioner av alternativa framtider kan fungera som underlag för börser i strategiskt beslutsfattande och de möjliggör den strategiska konversationen inom organisationen att utvecklas och fortsätta. Sådan typ av konversation hjälper till att skapa en delad mental modell av den externa miljön och organisationen i sig. Eftersom affärsmiljön är i ständig förändring är målet att kontinuerligt använda scenarioanalys för att utvärdera och förbättra strategiska beslut. Det tillåter också organisationer att lära sig och genomföra förändringar baserat på egna erfarenheter för att identifiera nya möjligheter. Eftersom det inte kan finnas något lärande utan åtgärder, är det ultimata målet med scenarioanalys att påverka strategiska beslut genom att vidta reflektionsbaserade åtgärder.

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2018-12-04T13:24:28Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Fernanda Rocha de Aguiar_.pdf: 1937778 bytes, checksum: 1fc90c40d2895375df76738cdc391205 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-04T13:24:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Fernanda Rocha de Aguiar_.pdf: 1937778 bytes, checksum: 1fc90c40d2895375df76738cdc391205 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-27 / UNISINOS - Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos / Este trabalho objetiva analisar os possíveis cenários da indústria postal brasileira, em um horizonte até 2028, a partir dos efeitos econômicos, sociais, políticos, tecnológicos e legais decorrentes das transformações desse mercado. É fato que as empresas estão usando canais digitais para emitir contas, declarações e faturas. As pessoas agora usam redes sociais e smartphones para se comunicar com familiares e amigos. Além disso, os consumidores estão mudando gradativamente de lojas físicas para compras online. Ou seja, ambos, a substituição de correspondências físicas por mídias e o comércio eletrônico, estão em alta e resultam em desafios e oportunidades para a indústria postal, além de impulsionarem os esforços para diversificar e aumentar a eficiência e a inovação. Essas considerações motivaram o desenvolvimento de uma pesquisa qualitativa, de natureza exploratória, utilizando o método da análise de cenários a partir de informações fornecidas por especialistas do correio brasileiro, bem como atores do ambiente contextual em que a empresa está inserida. A coleta de dados foi realizada por meio de entrevistas semiestruturadas, em que as informações foram apuradas mediante Análise de Conteúdo. Como resultado, foram construídos quatro cenários baseados em incertezas e tendências da indústria postal brasileira, de forma a indicar de que maneira a distribuição domiciliária pode ser adequada a essas perspectivas. Da análise dos cenários, validada por especialistas, ressalta-se que o correio brasileiro precisa de estratégias que possam preparar a organização para atravessar as diferentes situações que foram desenhadas, especialmente com a necessidade de diversificação do seu modelo de negócio, incluindo remodelagem de produtos, flexibilidade em suas atividades e inovação de suas plataformas. Do contrário, a empresa poderá se direcionar para a realidade da precarização dos serviços, que representa a baixa qualidade e a falta de eficiência operacional, forçando as premissas de privatização ou quebra de monopólio para o correio brasileiro. / This paper aims to analyze the possible scenarios of the Brazilian postal industry in a horizon up to 2028, from the economic, social, political, technological and legal effects resulting from the transformations of this market. It is a fact that companies are using digital channels to issue accounts, statements and invoices. People now use social networks and smartphones to communicate with family and friends. In addition, consumers are gradually shifting from physical stores to shopping online. In other words, both the substitution of physical correspondence by means of e-commerce and e-commerce are on the rise and result in challenges and opportunities for the postal industry, as well as boosting efforts to diversify and increase efficiency and innovation. These considerations motivated the development of a qualitative research of an exploratory nature using the Scenario Analysis method from information provided by Brazilian mail specialists as well as actors from the contextual environment in which the company is inserted. The research was performed through semi-structured interviews in which the information was cleared through Content Analysis. As a result, four scenarios were built based on the uncertainties and trends of the Brazilian postal industry in order to indicate how home delivery may be appropriate to these perspectives. From the analysis of the scenarios, validated by specialists, it is emphasized that Brazilian postal industry needs strategies that can prepare the organization to cross the different situations that were designed, especially with the need to diversify its business model, including product remodeling, flexibility in their activities and innovation of their platforms. Otherwise, the company could be directed to the reality of the precariousness of the services that represents the poor quality and lack of operational efficiency, forcing the premises of privatization or end of the postal monopoly for Brazilian postal service.

Submitted by Maicon Juliano Schmidt (maicons) on 2015-06-15T17:20:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Bibiana Dutra Antunes da Cunha.pdf: 6603045 bytes, checksum: 1c3507cc7bc0554ef005758398915c81 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-06-15T17:20:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Bibiana Dutra Antunes da Cunha.pdf: 6603045 bytes, checksum: 1c3507cc7bc0554ef005758398915c81 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-12-18 / Nenhuma / Este trabalho objetiva analisar possíveis cenários e os efeitos econômicos, sociais, políticos, tecnológicos e legais decorrentes da entrada de capital estrangeiro no sistema brasileiro de saúde suplementar, na visão dos prestadores de serviços de saúde, considerando o horizonte de 2025. Foi desenvolvida uma pesquisa qualitativa de natureza exploratória que utilizou o método de Análise de Cenários, baseada em informações fornecidas por especialistas e gestores do mercado da saúde suplementar. Os principais atores desse mercado foram representados: Agência Nacional de Saúde Suplementar, operadoras com capital estrangeiro, operadoras e prestadores de saúde de capital nacional. A coleta de dados foi realizada por meio de entrevistas semiestruturadas e a extração de informação foi realizada por meio de Análise de Conteúdo. Como resultados, foram criados quatro possíveis cenários considerando o horizonte de 2025, baseados em incertezas sobre a atuação da ANS no processo de regulação e os investimentos em qualidade assistencial, certificação e segurança. Da análise dos cenários, também validada por especialistas, depreende-se que os prestadores devem investir em ações para a melhoria de políticas de saúde, discussões em relação ao modelo de remuneração operadora-prestador, ações de promoção e prevenção em saúde, melhoria da qualidade assistencial, além do desenvolvimento de estudos populacionais, de modo a evitar efeitos nocivos da entrada de capital estrangeiro neste mercado. / The purpose of this study is to analyze possible scenarios and the economic, social, political, technological and legal effects arising from the entry of foreign capital in the Brazilian supplementary health system, from the standpoint of health service providers, considering the time frame up to 2015. It has been done through qualitative exploratory research, based on scenario analysis. Experts and managers from this supplementary health market provided the required data for the scenario analysis. The main actors from this market were represented by: the Brazilian National Agency of Supplemental Health, Brazilian health insurance companies either with or without foreign capital shares, and Brazilian health care providers. Semi-structured interviews were used as data collection technique, and information was extracted by content analysis. As a result, four scenarios were created, considering the horizon of 2025, based on uncertainties about the ANS' activities in the regulatory process and the investments in service quality, certification and safety. From the analysis of scenarios, also validated by experts, was found that providers have to invest in actions to improve health policies, discussions with service provider remuneration model, promotion and prevention in health, improve quality of care and the development of population studies to avoid harmful effects of entering foreign capital in this market.

<p>Cilj disertacije je razvoj fleksibilnog modela za evaluaciju sistema upravljanja<br />komunalnim otpadom baziran na LCA metodi. Model je baziran na bilansu<br />mase i energije. LCA analiza sistema komunalnog otpada omogućava<br />sagledavanje uticaja kako svih faza životnog ciklusa otpada, tako<br />i celokupnog sistema upravljanja otpadom. Model je koncipiran kroz module<br />koji prate osnovne faze LCA metode. Evaluacija i komparacija različitih<br />scenarija upravljanja otpadom sprovedena je kroz pet indikatora. Ostvareni<br />rezultati istraživanja pokazuju jasne razlike između definisanih scenarija<br />upravljanja otpadom po pitanju odabranih indikatoria i daju dobru osnovu u<br />procesu dono&scaron;enja odluka za unapređenje i izbor optimalnog sistema<br />upravljanja čvrstim komunalnim otpadom.</p> / <p>The goal dissertation is to develop a flexible model for the evaluation<br />waste management system based on LCA methods. The model is<br />based on mass and energy balance. LCA analysis of municipal waste<br />system assess environmental impacts to all phases of the life cycle of<br />waste, and the entire system of waste management. The model is<br />based on modules corresponding to the main phases of LCA<br />methods. Evaluation of different scenarios of waste management is<br />carried out through five indicators. The results show clear differences<br />between the scenarios in terms of impact on selected indicators and<br />provides basis for decision-making processes for the selection of the<br />optimal solid waste management system.</p>

Globally, coal-fired power plant (CFPP) is a major source of mercury. China is developing its first National Implementation Plan on Mercury Control, which priorities the control of emissions from CFPPs. While social benefits play an important role in designing environmental policies in China, the benefits associated with mercury control are not yet understood, mainly due to the scientific challenges to trace mercury's emissions-to-impacts path. This study evaluates the benefits of mercury reductions in China's CFPPs for China and its three neighboring countries in East Asia. Four policy scenarios are analyzed following the policies-to-impacts path, which links a global atmospheric model to health benefit analysis models to estimate the economic gains from avoided mercury-related adverse health outcomes under each scenario, and take into account key uncertainties in the path. Under the most stringent scenario, the benefits of mercury reduction by 2030 are projected to be $432 billion (95% CI: $166–941 billion), with the benefits for China and the neighboring countries accounting for 96% and 4% of the total benefits, respectively. Policy scenario analysis indicates that coal washing generates the greatest benefits in the near term, whereas upgrading air pollution control devices maximizes health benefits in the long term.

<p>This paper aims to tell out a “what next” question of the future scenarios that the European Union (EU), as a security community, is most likely to face in its development as a world power up to the year 2020. The EU is a rapidly evolving concept consolidating with comprehensive internal and external dimension and implication. Key concepts such as power, security, global governance and international order have been used as the underlying themes that will determine the course of the future. In this context Neo-realism, Constructivism and Security Community’s model have been used as the theoretical framework to examine how EU’s role in the international system can be analyzed in the conceptual framework of security. This is followed by a discussion on the concurrent ESDP instruments initiated by the new Constitution as a key momentum of security community buildup internally. To broaden understanding and to get a variety of perspectives, research reports and policy papers of some transatlantic think tanks were analyzed. While multi- perspectives of some prominent think tanks were reviewed, analyzed and discussed, the opinions of policy makers at the United Nations Head Quarters, New York, were also explored to reflect on how EU’s role in international affairs is being perceived in the corridors of power, both concurrently and futuristically. These views were consequently augmented by attending General Assembly and Security Council sessions during September 2004 to January 2005 to observe what sorts of power and influence EU exerts in the contemporary international system and what potential it has for the future. Based on these findings, the paper identified three scenarios that EU is most likely to face in its efforts to be an international power. The paper concluded with the understanding that EU has vision and potential to be a power in the international system futuristically, which can be further enhanced if EU enhances its military capabilities and improves its power perception in the eyes of various stakeholders. However since the international system is volatile, its future role cannot be predicted with accuracy, only alternative options can be identified. EU’s roles are dependent upon the degree of success of the integration process internally and the structural interaction with other major actors in the international system. Whereas EU may enhance its role up to the year 2020, it may not enter into a power conflict with other major powers. However it will play its role comparable with the magnitude of its size, power and influence to manage the international system, futuristically in an improvised way.</p>

This paper aims to tell out a “what next” question of the future scenarios that the European Union (EU), as a security community, is most likely to face in its development as a world power up to the year 2020. The EU is a rapidly evolving concept consolidating with comprehensive internal and external dimension and implication. Key concepts such as power, security, global governance and international order have been used as the underlying themes that will determine the course of the future. In this context Neo-realism, Constructivism and Security Community’s model have been used as the theoretical framework to examine how EU’s role in the international system can be analyzed in the conceptual framework of security. This is followed by a discussion on the concurrent ESDP instruments initiated by the new Constitution as a key momentum of security community buildup internally. To broaden understanding and to get a variety of perspectives, research reports and policy papers of some transatlantic think tanks were analyzed. While multi- perspectives of some prominent think tanks were reviewed, analyzed and discussed, the opinions of policy makers at the United Nations Head Quarters, New York, were also explored to reflect on how EU’s role in international affairs is being perceived in the corridors of power, both concurrently and futuristically. These views were consequently augmented by attending General Assembly and Security Council sessions during September 2004 to January 2005 to observe what sorts of power and influence EU exerts in the contemporary international system and what potential it has for the future. Based on these findings, the paper identified three scenarios that EU is most likely to face in its efforts to be an international power. The paper concluded with the understanding that EU has vision and potential to be a power in the international system futuristically, which can be further enhanced if EU enhances its military capabilities and improves its power perception in the eyes of various stakeholders. However since the international system is volatile, its future role cannot be predicted with accuracy, only alternative options can be identified. EU’s roles are dependent upon the degree of success of the integration process internally and the structural interaction with other major actors in the international system. Whereas EU may enhance its role up to the year 2020, it may not enter into a power conflict with other major powers. However it will play its role comparable with the magnitude of its size, power and influence to manage the international system, futuristically in an improvised way.