In this thesis empirical relationships and modeling tools are used to describe the relationship between human activities and meso- and large scale riverine N fluxes from land to sea. On a large scale Paper I showed that by only having knowledge about human population size and runoff one can estimate the riverine export of DIN (r2= 0.76). In Paper II we included two other important anthropogenic N inputs, i.e. atmospheric deposition and primary emission (PE) from animals. In most of the catchments the PE from animals were larger than the PE from humans. Hence, development of livestock is important and increased animal protein consumption by humans might increase the riverine N export. Scenario analysis (Paper II) show that climate change is expected to both decrease and increase the riverine N export depending on which part of the catchment is modeled. In the southern and eastern parts of the Baltic Sea catchment there is large potential for N reductions from point sources (Papers III & V). The diffuse sources are more difficult to decrease and a reduction of mineral fertilizer does not always lead to reduced N loadings because the agricultural systems can buffer even a slight surplus (Paper III). There is inertia in the catchments which can be seen in for example in the northern part of the catchment. Here atmospheric N deposition is almost as high as in the southern part but the nitrogen flux from these rivers is not elevated. These northern river catchments have N exports of the same magnitude as the natural background (Paper IV), indicating that the atmospheric N deposition is retained in the system and probably taken up by N limited boreal forests. However, important reductions can be achieved in the agricultural sector by detailed management of the planted land and animal manure. The highest sensitivity is in catchments with high animal density and high specific discharge, primarily draining to Kattegat and Danish Straits (Paper II & IV). / At the time of doctoral dissertation the following publications were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 2: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript

Recently years, TFT-LCD industry has become the major development policy in Taiwan, and the scale of investment of the TFT-LCD¡¦s industry has become more and more in Taiwan, Japan and Korea. The Profit of the TFT-LCD monitor and television industry has been compressed very seriously to injure the chance and cost advantage of the second-string companies to run above business. Hence, this research is focused on a case of a TFT-LCD company termed ¡§A company¡¨ owns two old generation factories, and uses the strategy theories of scenario analysis, competition advantage, five forces analysis, resource-based view, value chain and so on and strategy tools of strategy map and balanced scorecard to analyze and find out the transformation strategy of the case of the ¡§A company¡¨ to build up the best competition advantage. To realize the competition status of outside and internal environment of TFT-LCD industry, and the resources base of the case of ¡§A company¡¨ in Taiwan, and the development situation using scenario analysis in order to define the direction of the operation strategy of the case of ¡§A company¡¨ that owns two third generation factories. The result is using strategy development tools of strategy map, balanced scorecard, key performance indicator management to develop the execution plan and performance measure indicators of the transformation strategy.

Klimawissenschaftler sind sich heute weitgehend einig, dass aktuell ein durch den Menschen verursachter Wandel des Klimas stattfindet, welcher große Auswirkungen auf die Menschheit im Allgemeinen hat, aber auch auf die Unternehmenspraxis. Anpassungsmaßnahmen an diese Auswirkungen stellen eine wichtige Möglichkeit dar, die wirtschaftlichen Schäden durch den Klimawandel zu begrenzen bzw. zu vermeiden. Im Rahmen des Projektes REGKLAM („Entwicklung und Erprobung eines integrierten Regionalen Klimaanpassungsprogramms für die Modellregion Dresden“) wird der Einfluss des Klimawandels auf Unternehmen der Region Dresden untersucht, um solche geeigneten Anpassungsmaßnahmen zu entwickeln. Die Methode der Szenarioanalyse wird dabei genutzt, um den Klimaeinfluss auf betriebswirtschaftliche Größen, vorrangig in der regionalen Tourismusbranche, zu analysieren. Dazu wird zunächst eine umfassende Literaturrecherche durchgeführt, deren Ergebnis den Rahmen für eine Szenarioanalyse für die Branche Tourismus der Region Dresden liefert. Im Ergebnis werden einige Anpassungsstrategien für diese Branche erarbeitet.

In view of the current situation of fluctuating high crude oil prices, it is now more important than ever for petroleum refineries to operate at an optimal level in the present dynamic global economy. Acknowledging the shortcomings of deterministic models, this work proposes a hybrid of stochastic programming formulations for an optimal midterm refinery planning that addresses three factors of uncertainties, namely price of crude oil and saleable products, product demand, and production yields. An explicit stochastic programming technique is utilized by employing compensating slack variables to account for violations of constraints in order to increase model tractability. Four approaches are considered to ensure both solution and model robustness: (1) the Markowitz???s mean???variance (MV) model to handle randomness in the objective coefficients of prices by minimizing variance of the expected value of the random coefficients; (2) the two-stage stochastic programming with fixed recourse approach via scenario analysis to model randomness in the right-hand side and left-hand side coefficients by minimizing the expected recourse penalty costs due to constraints??? violations; (3) incorporation of the MV model within the framework developed in Approach 2 to minimize both the expectation and variance of the recourse costs; and (4) reformulation of the model in Approach 3 by adopting mean-absolute deviation (MAD) as the risk metric imposed by the recourse costs for a novel application to the petroleum refining industry. A representative numerical example is illustrated with the resulting outcome of higher net profits and increased robustness in solutions proposed by the stochastic models.

To mitigate climate change, the transition to a low-carbon economy is imperative. Even though this transition poses unprecedented economic and social risks, academic research regarding the impacts of such risks on the financial sector is limited. This thesis develops an integrated analytical framework to quantify the transition risks of equity portfolios. The aim is to improve the scientific understanding of transition risk modelling and to enable a forward-looking risk analysis in investment management. Transition risks are analyzed with a scenario-based approach. Three transition scenarios that stretch until 2025 and 2030 are constructed. For each scenario, three risk variables are designed: a global carbon tax, a change in the share of renewables in electricity generation, and a change in fossil fuel production. A transition-adjusted dis-counted cash flow (TA-DCF) model is developed to estimate the financial impacts of those risks. Furthermore, a method to model company-specific transition capacity is applied. The findings of the study suggest limited total transition impacts on the portfolio level until 2030. The analysis of a diversified global equity index discovers losses of -2.95% of the total market value in the most ambitious transi-tion scenario. Transition risks become more apparent on the sector and individual company level. The thesis finds that three sectors, Energy, Utilities and Materials, are highly exposed to transition risks. In addition, the TA-DCF model enables the identification of companies that are expected to lose of most of their value due to transition risks as well as companies that leverage the emerging opportunities. The developed framework can be applied in portfolio management and portfolio construction to incorporate tran-sition risks into decision-making processes in financial risk management. Several use cases, i.e. the development of a low transition risk benchmark, are discussed.

The aim of this investigation was to determine the applicability and weaknesses of the regional distribution model SimpleBox and to make proposals for improvement. The validation was performed using a scheme of which the main aspects are the division into internal and external validation. With its default values, the regional distribution model represents a generic region, and it is connected with a model which estimates indirect emissions from sewage treatment plants. The examination was carried out using a set of sample substances, the characteristics of which cover a wide range of different physico-chemical properties, use patterns and emissions. These substances were employed in order to enable us to make common statements on the model´s applicability. Altogether, the model complies with its designated purpose to calculate regional background concentrations. A scrutiny of theory did not show serious errors or defects. Regarding sensitivity, it could be shown that the model contains only few parameters with a negligible influence on the results. The comparison with measured results showed a good agreement in many cases. The highest deviations occur if the preliminary estimations of emissions, degradation rates and partition coefficients deliver unrealistic values. Altering the regional default parameters has a lower influence on the modelled results than replacing unrealistic substance properties by better ones. Generally, the model employed is a reasonable compromise between complexity and simplification. For the sewage treatment model, it could be shown that its influence on the predicted concentration is very low and a much simpler model fulfils its purpose in a similar way. It is proposed to improve the model in several ways, e.g. by alternative estimations functions for partition coefficients. But the main focus for future improvements should be on the amelioration of release estimations and substance characteristics.

Power to gas is an emerging energy storage technology with great versatility. This thesis investigates the economic prospects of investing in such a facility via a case study linked to the Söderåren biogas plant in southern Sweden.The basis for this study is cash flow scenario analysis based on revenues and costs, which are referred as scenario parameters. Each of these parameters have different options to choose from, with nominal values chosen as the most likely options for each scenario parameter. In current market condition it was observed that installing power to gas is not profitable. However after exploring numerous combinations of scenarios, it was found that the electrical grid fee charges and higher ancillary service income was critical to achieve a viable business case for power to gas. Another scenario achieved profitability with a small margin which occurred when the grid fee was removed, referred as “grid fee off”. Both the most likely scenario and grid fee off scenario included sensitivity analysis. This was used to observe the impact of net present value when changing one parameter at a time. / Power to gas/ El till gas är en teknik på frammarsch med mångsidiga egenskaper. Den här master uppsatsen ämnar att undersöka om power to gas är lönsamt att investera idag vid en anläggning i södra Sverige vid namn Söderåsen/Wrams biogasanläggning. Samt överskåda under vilka ekonomiska den skulle kunna bli lönsam. Resultaten kan extrapoleras till liknande biogasanläggningar med liknande ekonomiska förutsättningar.Grunden för denna studie är analys av kassaflödesscenarion baserat på intäkter och kostnader, vilket kommer att refereras till som scenarioparametrar. Var och en av dessa parametrar har olika alternativ att välja mellan, där en av dessa parametrar antas vara det mest troliga alternativet att hända verkligheten. I nuvarande marknadsförhållanden observerades det att installation av el till gas inte är lönsam. Däremot efter att ha undersökt en mängd olika scenario, tillsammans 90 stycken kombinationer av scenarier (mer finns i bilagan), visade det sig att nätavgiften var avgörande för att uppnå en bärkraftig affärssituation för el till gas. Ett alternativt scenario med slopad nätavgift illustreras därefter. Känslighetsanalys sker i det mest troliga scenariot och i det alternativa scenariot utav projektets nuvärde för belysa ändring av enskilda scenario parametrars inverkan på resultatet.En intressant men osäker ekonomisk möjlighet diskuteras kring möjligheterna att ersätta uppgraderingsenheten för konventionella biogasenheter helt och hållet. Det diskuteras hur vissa parametrar korrelerar samt ifall det går att ekonomiskt motivera an slopning av nätavgiften.Slutligen tas rekommendationer till framtida studier upp.

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Organizations face multiple types of climate-related risks and opportunities. This creates financial and strategic challenges for organizations to solve, thus creating different frameworks, such as the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), that support organizations and increases their financial stability and strategic resiliency. Within the TCFD recommendations and current regulations, scenario analysis is a strong tool to be used and reported on, to increase the transparency and resiliency further. Therefore, this degree project takes a deep dive into what role scenario analysis has concerning organizations, specifically the battery manufacturing industry, and examines the possibilities to facilitate the deployment of the scenario analysis process, aligned with the TCFD recommendations. Meaning that the guidance created addresses the current gap in research and scenario implementation. The results of this degree project indicate that scenario analysis holds a big role in all organizations because of its benefits. Scenario analysis increases the overall understanding regarding uncertainties, improves the anticipation of climate-related risks and opportunities and it enhances the understanding related to the interconnections and dependencies between them. Most importantly, scenario analysis supports organizations with decision-making and strategic planning by looking into how risks and opportunities develop in multiple scenarios and time horizons. The results also indicate that the battery manufacturing industry can face multiple risks and opportunities at each step of the value chain. Furthermore, this degree project presents a step-by-step implementation guidance that facilitates the scenario analysis process aligned with TCFD recommendations. / Organisationer idag möts av många typer av klimat-relaterade risker och möjligheter.Detta leder till olika finansiella och strategiska utmaningar for organisationer sommåste hanteras. Därav har flera ramverk, exempelvis the Task Force on Climate Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), skapats och hjälper organisationer att öka finansiella stabiliteten och strategiska motstånd. Dessutom finns det olika regelverk som företag måste rapportera inom, där scenario analys är ett område som måste rappoteras och presenteras. Därav, detta examensarbete kommer att undersöka vilken roll scenarioanalys har idag, speciellt inom batteriindustrin, och även undersöka möjligheterna att underlätta införandet av scenario analys process, i linje med TCFD:s rekommendationer. Resultaten av detta examensarbete indikerar att scenarioanalysen har en stor roll för alla organisationer på grund av dess fördelar. Scenarioanalys ökar den övergripande förståelsen för osäkerheter, förbättrar förväntan på klimatrelaterade risker och möjligheter och ökar förståelsen för sammankopplingar och beroenden mellan risker och möjligheter. Viktigast av allt är att scenarioanalys stöder organisationer med beslutsfattande och strategisk planering genom att undersöka hur risker och möjligheter utvecklas i flera scenarier och tidshorisonter. Resultaten indikerar också att batteritillverkningsindustrin kan möta flera risker och möjligheter i varje steg i värdekedjan, vilket ökar behovet av strategisk planering. Vidare presenterar detta examensarbete en steg-för-steg-implementeringsvägledning som underlättar scenarioanalysprocessen i linje med TCFD-rekommendationer.

Comparing the future state of natural capital and ecosystem services with quantitative scenarios  is essential in the decision-making process for a sustainable management of forest landscapes. In Sweden, an intensified forest management will likely be necessary to meet future demands of woody biomass as a source of bioenergy and building materials. At the same time an intensified forest harvest can cause conflicts with goals  for biodiversity conservation and reduce the amount of carbon being stored the forest. This study conducted a scenario analysis to evaluate how different types of forest management would affect changes in carbon stock between the above ground biomass in a Swedish forest and the biomass harvested from the forest. Potential conflicts between the harvesting scenarios and the in Sweden critically endangered White-backed Woodpecker (Dendrocopos leucotos) was also evaluated. The White-backed Woodpecker can be seen as an umbrella species, which means that there are about 200 other endangered plant and animal species that depend on the same kind of forest environments and could therefore be a measure of the state of the forest biodiversity in Sweden.  The forest landscape model LANDIS-II was used to simulate vegetation dynamics in species composition, age structure and biomass while considering disturbances only from harvesting. The simulation had a 100-year timeframe and used initial conditions gathered from a previous case study done in Sweden. The IPCC’s representative concentration pathway 4.5 was used to simulate impact from climate change. A business as usual scenario was simulated along with an intensified harvesting scenario and a conservation scenario to evaluate the impact on carbon sequestration in the aboveground  biomass  and the impact on the White-backed Woodpecker  habitat  between different forest management scenarios. The change in the stored and harvested carbon was calculated using the Carbon Stock Change Method and by comparing the initial biomass values with the values from the last ten years of the simulation. A habitat suitability score was made with respect to two key habitat requirements for the White-backed Woodpecker (1) the fraction of deciduous trees in the forest; and (2) the age structure of the forest.   From the result it was found that the carbon stock change in the forest was relatively stable for all the simulated scenarios during the 100-year period. The forest carbon stock for the intensified harvesting scenario was 1.04 of the initial carbon stock of the simulation while business as usual was 1.08 and the conservation scenario 1.10.  A conservation scenario would therefore be preferable if the forest landscape is to be used mainly as a carbon sink. If biomass extraction is to be increased to meet future demands for bioenergy and woody products, it should be noted that the intensified harvesting led to a 23.6 increase of the initial biomass harvest values while business as usual had a 4.2 increase and the conservation scenario a 3.1 increase. The result also suggests that increasing the proportions of deciduous and old forest to recreate  the White-backed Woodpecker’s preferred habitat require considerable time and effort and cannot likely be achieved with the current business as usual scenario nor with the intensified harvesting or conservation scenarios simulated in this study. Thus, a more ambitious and targeted restoration effort is needed if the species is to be preserved.   How the forest should be sustainably managed in the future depends on which interests takes priority in decision-making. However, a forest landscape model can provide valuable information throughout the management process so that more informed decisions can be made while also saving  time, money and resources better used elsewhere. / Att jämföra det framtida tillståndet för naturkapital och ekosystemtjänster med kvantitativa scenarier är väsentligt i beslutsprocessen för en hållbar förvaltning av skogslandskap. I Sverige kommer sannolikt ett intensifierat skogsbruk att bli nödvändigt för att möta framtida krav på biomassa till bioenergi och byggmaterial. Samtidigt kan en intensifierad skogsavverkning orsaka konflikter med målet att bevara biologisk mångfald och öka mängden kol lagrad i skogen. Denna studie genomförde en scenarioanalys för att utvärdera hur olika typer av skogsskötsel påverkar i kolbalansen i en svensk skog och mängden biomassa som avverkas från skogen. Potentiella konflikter mellan skogsskötsel och den i Sverige kritiskt hotade vitryggiga hackspetten (Dendrocopos leucotos) utvärderades också. Den vitryggiga hackspetten kan ses som en paraplyart, vilket innebär att det finns cirka 200 andra hotade växt- och djurarter som är beroende av samma sorts skogsmiljöer, och den kan därför vara ett mått på tillståndet för den skogsknutna biologiska mångfalden i Sverige. Skogslandskapsmodellen LANDIS-II användes för att simulera vegetationsdynamik för artsammansättning, åldersstruktur och biomassa samtidigt som man beaktade störningar endast från avverkning. Simuleringen gjorde för en 100-årsperiod och använde initiala förutsättningar från en tidigare fallstudie gjord i Sverige. IPCC:s representativa koncentrationsväg 4.5 användes för att simulera påverkan från klimatförändringar. Ett "business as usual"-scenario simulerades tillsammans med ett intensifierat avverkningsscenario och ett bevarandescenario för att utvärdera påverkan på kolbindning i den stående biomassan och påverkan på habitat för vitryggig hackspett mellan olika skogsskötselscenarier. Förändringen i det lagrade kolet beräknades med hjälp av ”Carbon Stock Change”-metoden och genom att jämföra de initiala biomassavärdena med värdena från de senaste tio åren av simuleringen. Ett habitatlämplighetspoäng gjordes med avseende på två viktiga habitatkrav för vitryggig hackspett (1) andelen lövträd i skogen; och (2) skogens åldersstruktur. Av resultatet visade det sig att kolförrådets förändring i skogen var relativt stabil för alla de simulerade scenarierna under 100-årsperioden. Skogens kollager för det intensifierade avverkningsscenariot var 1,04 av simuleringens initiala värden medan ”business as usual” var 1,08 och bevarandescenariot 1,10. Ett bevarandescenario vore därför att föredra om skogslandskapet främst ska användas som kolsänka. Om biomassautvinningen ska ökas för att möta framtida krav på bioenergi och träprodukter bör det noteras att den intensifierade avverkningen ledde till en ökning med 23,6 av de initiala skördevärdena för biomassa medan ”business as usual” hade en ökning med 4,2 och bevarandescenariot med 3,1. Resultatet tyder också på att en ökning av andelen lövskog och gammal skog för att återskapa vitryggig hackspetts föredragna habitat kräver avsevärd tid och ansträngning och sannolikt inte kan uppnås med det nuvarande scenariot med ”business as usual” eller med de intensifierade avverknings- eller bevarandescenarierna som simuleras i detta studie. Det behövs alltså en mer ambitiös och målinriktad restaureringsinsats om arten ska bevaras. Hur skogen ska skötas hållbart i framtiden beror på vilka intressen som prioriteras i beslutsfattandet. En skogslandskapsmodell kan dock ge värdefull information under hela skötselprocessen så att mer informerade beslut kan fattas samtidigt som det sparar tid, pengar och resurser som kan användas bättre på annat håll.