Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2016-07-15T15:44:58Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Diana Indiara Ferreira Jardim_.pdf: 1813573 bytes, checksum: 652d3ceb38f92055404f6a8ea2834105 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-15T15:44:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Diana Indiara Ferreira Jardim_.pdf: 1813573 bytes, checksum: 652d3ceb38f92055404f6a8ea2834105 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-04-27 / Nenhuma / Esta pesquisa procurou mapear os cenários que se desenvolverão nos próximos dez anos no mercado hospitalar brasileiro, considerando o ambiente institucional do País a partir da mudança da Lei nº 8.080/1990, art. 23, que permitiu, em janeiro de 2015, investimento externo direto em serviços de assistência à saúde. Foi realizado um painel de experts com 13 representantes de projeção nacional dos grupos de hospitais, operadoras, governo, trabalhadores da área de saúde e investidores estrangeiros. A partir destas informações, foram construídos cenários, por meio de uma survey para uma amostra de 134, em que atores da área de saúde brasileira indicaram o grau de probabilidade de cada variável, para a construção final dos cenários prospectivos. Os principais resultados de estudo indicam que a complexidade do mercado hospitalar será o maior desafio para o investidor estrangeiro. Não há sinais de barreiras que impeçam o investimento de estrangeiros em hospitais, entretanto, não se sabe se haverá algum tipo de regulação e qual órgão será responsável. Os modos de entrada que serão utilizados pelos investidores de capital estrangeiro será joint venture, em um primeiro momento, e alguns investimentos de brownfield, ou aquisição. Entretanto, todos prezam por cautela e têm comprometimento gradual, atuando, principalmente, em cidades com alto PIB per capita e com forte atuação da saúde suplementar. / This research attempts to map the probable scenarios that may develop over the next ten years in the Brazilian hospital market, considering the institutional environment of the country from the Law change No 8080/1990, art. 23, which allowed in January 2015, foreign direct investment in health care services. This research was released to a panel of experts comprised of 13 national representatives of Hospitals groups, operators, government, health workers and foreign investors. The information derived from this panel, scenarios were built and submitted through a survey to a sample of 134 stakeholders who indicated the probability of each variable to the final constructor of prospective scenarios. The main results of the study indicate that the complexity of the hospital market will be the biggest challenge for the foreign investor. Currently, there are no signs of barriers that would prevent foreign investment in hospitals, however, in the future, whether there will be regulations and which agency will be responsible. The entry modes adopted by foreign equity investors will be joint venture with Brazilian companies at first, then, potentially brownfield investments, or acquisitions. Investments will be implemented gradually, mainly in cities with high GDP per capita and strong performance of private health insurance companies.

本研究是以產業分析結合情境分析法找出台灣液晶電視產業的過去、現在影響發展的因素和未來的可能的情境及策略層面，以供關心台灣液晶電視產業發展的同業參考。在完成產業的情境分析之後，本研究也將以個案:奇美新視代為例分析其可能的因應策略。 本研究對產業因素及產業情境分析主要是從產業環境、產業結構、廠商行為三個面向結合相關財務的資料佐證本加上五力分析的結果，作為情境分析法的影響因素來源。 而後是以對應產業情境分析法，將其分析結果，結合競爭優勢和相關產業策略以及白地策略產生相關台灣液晶電視產業的相關情境下之可能策略並對應個案奇美新視代的因應策略。 而根據情境分析的結果，立即應進行的是產業內競爭力的提升，透過垂直整合和水平購併使台灣液晶電視產業相關業者區域內競爭力提升。 就長期而言，要培養具國際視野和最新技術的國際頂尖學者，也要針對產業和新技術的政策擬定針對性市場技術開發策略，以利後續產業國際化和國際品牌的配合與銜接。 / This research applies Industrial and Scenario Analyses to figure out the factors that are affected from the history and current states to generate the future developments of Taiwan’s LCD TV industry. It also acts as a reference to companies who concern about the developments of this industry. Besides, after the Scenario Analysis of Taiwan’s LCD TV industry, this research will take the company, CHIMEI Nexgen, as an example to analyze its possible responding strategies to this industry. The research starts with the analysis of 「Structure-Conduct-Performance, SCP」 and the related financial information. Moreover, it uses five forces as the factors of Scenario Analysis. Afterwards, it corresponds with the industrial analysis to use the result and competitive advantage, related industrial strategies and White Space Strategy. According to the results of scenario analysis, what CHIMEI Nexgen should do is to uplift its competitiveness in Taiwan’s LCD TV industry through vertical and horizontal integrations of the value chain. As a long run, it is important to develop international top scholars with the global vision and state-of–art technologies for Taiwan’s LCD TV industry. Moreover, for industrial and high-technology policies, Taiwan’s LCD TV industry should map out the expending technical developing strategies that focus on international market in order to correspond to its follow-up products and international brand.

This study was conducted at the mountainous catchment part of Batinah Region of the Sultanate of Oman called Al-Awabi watershed which is about 260km2 in area with about 40 Km long Wadi main channel. The study paper presents a proposed modeling approach and possible scenario analysis which uses 1D - hydraulic modeling for flood routing analysis; and the main tasks of this study work are (1) Model setup for Al-Awabi watershed area, (2) Sensitivity Analysis, and (3) Scenario Analysis on impacts of rainfall characteristics and transmission losses. The model was set for the lower 24 Km long of Al-Awabi main channel (Figure 13). Channel cross-sections were the main input to the 1D-Hydraulic Model used for the analysis of flash flood routing of the Al-Awabi watershed. As field measurements of the Wadi channel cross-sections are labor intensive and expensive activities, availability of measured channel cross-sections is barely found in this study area region of Batinah, Oman; thereby making it difficult to simulate the flood water level and discharge using MIKE 11 HD. Hence, a methodology for extracting the channel cross-sections from ASTER DEM (27mX27m) and Google Earth map were used in this study area. The performance of the model setup was assessed so as to simulate the flash flood routing analysis at different cross-sections of the modeled reach. And from this study, although there were major gap and problems in data as well as in the prevailing topography, slope and other Hydro Dynamic parameters, it was concluded that the 1D-Hydraulic Modelling utilized for flood routing analysis work can be applied for the Al-Awabi watershed. And from the simulated model results, it was observed that the model was sensitive to the type of Boundary Condition chosen and taken, channel cross sections and its roughness coefficient utilized throughout the model reach.

本文考量於Excel介面下設計一「壽險公司現金流量模型」，透過保險財管、精算理論的採用與大量隨機模擬亂數的應用，欲建構一結合理論基礎與實務運用的動態財務分析系統雛形。 模型中，資產面的模擬項目共有七項：1.債券與放款：採用CIR或Vesicek兩利率模型供選擇進行利率期間結構生成，以模擬出各到期期限的債券及放款價格。2.股票：以資本資產訂價模型(CAPM)來模擬各類股股票價格的變動與股票投資報酬。3.不動產：使用幾何布朗運動模擬不動產價值與租金收入。4.國外投資：利用幾何布朗運動模擬匯率的變動。5.現金及銀行存款。6.應收款項，考量壞帳情況下，逐年比率攤回殘餘金額。7.其他資產。 負債面採用定期險、終身生死合險與遞延年金險模擬壽險公司業務經營的現金流量情況。藉由資產與負債的整合，可模擬出公司未來十年內各年度的損益情況，讓使用者了解於承受總體經濟各項不確定風險下，壽險公司資產面、負債面與業主權益的現金流量情況。 文末引用個案範例，進行實務操作的說明，示範如何應用本模型來進行最適資產配置決策與敏感度分析，以證明本系統的合理可行性。最後，並對此系統提出檢討與展望，期待後續研究可加入程式語言的應用而建構出一完備的動態財務分析系統。 / The main purpose of this study is to construct a dynamic cash flow testing for the life insurance company by using Excel. Through the adoption of financial and actuarial theories and the application of stochastic method, we want to provide a rudiment analysis framework of life dynamic financial model that combines theoretical basis and practical application. This analysis framework includes seven categories of assets. The simulation models or related issues for each category will be discussed accordingly. – 1. Bonds and mortgage loans: providing CIR and Vesicek interest rate model for users to generate the interest term structure. 2. Stocks: applying CAPM method to simulate the stock prices and stock returns. 3. Real estate and rental income: using Geometric Brownian Motion to simulate the price of real estate and the rental income. 4. Foreign investment assets: using Geometric Brownian Motion to simulate the movement of exchange rate. 5. Cash and Deposits. 6. Account Receivable: after considering bad loans, we amortize the residual account receivables for a specific period. On the liability side, we use three types of products - term life, whole life endowment, and deferred annuity - to generate the business profile as well as the cash flows patterns of the life insurance company. By integrating the asset and liability sides of the model, we can simulate the revenue of the company for the following ten years and enable the users to predict the future cash flows under uncertain financial conditions. Finally, applications of this model are presented as thoroughly as possible to educate the users about how to make the optimal asset allocation decisions and sensitive scenario analysis. The application results show that the model reasonably fits the desired results. Since the model presented here is not a complete DFA model, future researches may consider adding more refined component into the analysis framework like using programming language.

巴塞爾銀行監督委員會(Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, BCBS) 於2010年發布巴塞爾資本協定三。為強化銀行流動性風險管理，新增兩項流動性風險量化衡量指標：流動性覆蓋比率(Liquidity Coverage Ratio, LCR)以及淨穩定資金比率(Net Stable Funding Ratio, NSFR)。我國於2015年開始將流動性覆蓋比率納入監管要求，亦將於2018年開始導入淨穩定資金比率。然而在提高銀行風險控管及標準的同時，銀行需考量其股東權益報酬。新規範的實施使銀行需要進行調整以符合法規，過往鮮少有研究針對本國銀行探討其資產配置調整與結構調整。本研究除探討個案銀行如何在巴塞爾資本協定三框架下調整其資產負債配置與結構，更進一步探討其各項調整對銀行之獲利能力以及各項法定比率之影響，希望能幫助銀行在未來調整結構之前能更了解其決策所帶來之影響。 本研究發現，在不提高資產負債表規模的情況下，可以透過銀行結構調整達到巴塞爾資本協定三於2019年之標準，同時提高銀行獲利能力；在適度提高資產負債表規模的情況之下，其獲利能力高於不提高資產負債表規模之情況。此外，本研究針對不同情境探討銀行應如何調整資產負債配置與銀行結構。風險趨避情境相較於風險偏好下，應在存放款方面，吸收更多長天期之存款、降低長期放款占比；資產配置方面則應增加政府公債占比。由於巴塞爾資本協定三採階段性實施，本研究針對個案銀行2015到2019 年之資產負債配置與銀行結構做研究，發現個案銀行隨著法規越趨嚴格，應提高公司債占比並同時降低權益類等相對風險較高之資產占比；另一方面為達到淨穩定資金比率要求，銀行應提高其長期存款占比。最後，本研究針對各項結構與資產負債配置調整做更深入的分析，探討其對於各項指標之敏感度，以實際的量化數字表示每項變動的影響，以利銀行在做決策時更了解其決策之利與弊。 / Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) released Basel III in 2010. In order to ensure the maintenance and stability of funding and liquidity profiles of banks’ balance sheets, two liquidity standards, Liquidity Coverage Ratio(LCR) and Net Stable Funding Ratio(NSFR), were introduced in Basel III. To in line with international norm, Taiwan government plans to implement LCR and NSFR in 2015 and 2018 respectively. However, there is a trade-off between return and risk. With the implement of new law, how to adjust banks’ asset allocation becomes a critical issue. In this study, we focus on business structure and ways to adjust A bank’s asset allocation. We found that A bank can meet government’s requirements and increase it’s return on equity without increasing balance sheet size by adjusting business structure; In the situation where balance sheet size is increased, A bank can meet the requirements with higher return on equity than where the balance sheet size isn’t increased. In three different scenarios: risk seeking, risk neutral and risk aversion, we found that A bank should increase more long-term deposits and decrease long-term loans in risk aversion scenario than in risk seeking scenario. In risk aversion scenario, A bank should also hold more government bonds than in risk seeking scenario. From 2015 to 2019, the requirements become stricter and stricter, A bank should hold more corporate bonds and less securities. At the same time, A bank should increase more long-term deposits to meet the NSFR requirement. The research also shows how business structure and asset allocation changes can affect A bank’s related required ratio and return on equity. Our findings can help A bank makes more precise decision by knowing actual quantitative influence before they implement the new policies.

Die Dissertationsschrift führt im Gegensatz zu bisherigen Ansätzen im Zusammenhang mit der Energiewende einen Perspektivwechsel hin zur gesellschaftlichen Berücksichtigung herbei. Bisherige Szenariostudien richteten ihren Fokus auf die technische Machbarkeit sowie einzelne Kosten- und Umweltaspekte, wie in der Voranalyse gezeigt wird. Die Gesellschaft spielt in diesem Fall eine sekundäre Rolle. Statt einer Berücksichtigung im vorab geschalteten Entscheidungsprozess werden so häufig erst im Anschluss Zeit und Aufwand in die nachgelagerte Überzeugung der Bevölkerung investiert. Der in der Arbeit verfolgte Ansatz setzt konsequent darauf, gesellschaftliche Präferenzen und Barrieren vorab in die Entscheidungsfindung einzubeziehen, damit Entscheidungen selbst nachhaltig Bestand haben. Dazu werden repräsentative Telefonbefragungen genutzt, mit denen einerseits die Präferenzen der Bevölkerung, andererseits die Grenzen der Akzeptanz in Form der Zahlungsbereitschaft ermittelt werden. Erst im Anschluss daran werden Szenariorechnungen durchgeführt, um energiepolitische Handlungsoptionen auch quantitativ bewerten zu können. Bei der anschließenden Gegenüberstellung von gesellschaftlichen Barrieren und Modellergebnissen werden jedoch auch die Grenzen dieses Ansatzes vor Augen geführt: So kann eine aus Bevölkerungsperspektive erwünschte Handlungsoption (hier der Braunkohleausstieg) auch an politischen und rechtlichen Schranken scheitern.

El presente documento investiga los efectos de la política macroprudencial, medida por el requerimiento de capital sobre la economía peruana. Este estudio adapta y estima un modelo semi-estructural a la economía peruana, incorporando un instrumento de política macroprudencial y el sector crediticio. Para su estimación se utilizan datos de frecuencia trimestral y se estima mediante el Método Generalizado de Momentos. Se encuentra que el requerimiento de capital tiene un efecto negativo sobre el crecimiento del crédito y producto, y sobre la inflación. Además, mediante un análisis de escenarios se encuentra que los costos de la política macroprudencial resultan mayores que los de política monetaria. Por último, se encuentran indicios de que la política macroprudencial y monetaria deben coordinarse. / This document investigates the effects of macroprudential policy on the Peruvian economy, measured as the capital requirement ratio. This study adapts and estimates a semi-structural model to the Peruvian economy, incorporating a macroprudential policy instrument and a credit sector. The model is estimated using quarterly frequency data. It is estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments. The capital requirement has a negative effect on the growth of credit and product, and on inflation. Furthermore, through a scenario analysis, it is found that the costs of macroprudential policy are higher than those of monetary policy. Finally, there are signs that macroprudential and monetary policy need to be coordinated. / Trabajo de investigación

Det finns idag en trend i viljan att investera i samhällsfastigheter, det vill säga fastigheter där olika typer av samhällsservice bedrivs. Fördelen med denna typ av investeringar är att ägarna kan teckna långa hyresavtal med kommuner, landsting och staten som hyresgäst, vilket ger säkra kassaflöden i och med låg vakansrisk. Investeringsmarknaden för samhällsfastigheter är relativt ny för privata aktörer då dessa fastigheter tidigare ägdes i princip uteslutande av kommun och landsting, men som idag av olika anledningar valt att sälja och istället hyra tillbaka fastigheten av specialiserade fastighetsägare.  Studien syftar till att identifiera de osäkerheter/risker som existerar vid investeringar i samt förvaltande av samhällsfastigheter och främst vårdfastigheter i Sverige. Genom att intervjua aktörer som deltagit i tre studerade transaktioner av vårdfastigheter från 2011 har en investeringskalkyl samt en känslighetsanalys utformats och legat till grund för de slutsatser som dragits. Att investera i samhällsfastigheter har visat sig vara en relativt stabil och säker investering, då de långa kontraktens driftnetton bidrar till att investeringen kan räknas hem redan under första kontraktstiden. Dock med antagande om att inga oväntade kostnader uppstår. De största riskerna som föreligger gällande dessa fastigheter är restvärdesrisk på grund av svår alternativanvändning för dessa hyresgästanpassade byggnader, teknisk risk då fastigheterna behöver upprätthålla standard och viktiga funktioner samt politisk/jurisdisk risk där förändring i demografi, miljölagar, regleringar och krav påverkar samhällsfastigheters utveckling. Företagen som investerar i samhällsfastigheter är vanligtvis inriktade på denna typ av investering, vilket genom ökad kompetens inom området bidrar till en bra och långsiktig relation med hyresgästerna. Vidare har de inblandade aktörer en tämligen homogen syn på ansvarsfördelningar, kontraktsuppbyggnad och så vidare. Dessutom visar den demografiska utvecklingen i landet på en stor efterfrågan på samhällsfastigheter i framtiden och framför allt på vård- och omsorgsboenden. / There is currently a trend in the willingness to invest in public property, i.e. properties where different types of community services are provided. The advantage of this type of investment is that owners can sign long leases with tenants such as municipalities, counties and the state, providing secure cash flows and low vacancy risk. The investment market for public properties is relatively new to private operators as these properties have previously been owned almost exclusively by the municipality and county. Today, for various reasons, the municipalities and counties have decided to sell their properties and rent them back from specialized property owners. The study aims to identify the uncertainties/risks that are associated with investment and management of public properties, with a special focus on care properties in Sweden. An investment calculation and a sensitivity analysis were made through studies of three care property transactions in 2011 and interviews with the participating actors. The calculation and analysis have been the basis for the conclusions drawn. Investing in public real estate has proven to be a relatively stable and safe investment. The net operating income of the long leases that contribute to the investment could be considered as being paid back during the first contract period, assuming that no unexpected costs arise. The main risks that exist in these properties is salvage value risk due to severe alternative use for these tenant adjusted buildings, technical risk as the properties need to maintain standard and essential functions and at last political/legal risk where changes in demography, environmental laws, regulations and requirements affect public property development. Companies that invest in public real estate are usually focused on this type of investment, which through enhanced capabilities in the area contributes to a good and long-term relationship with tenants. Furthermore, the players involved have a rather homogeneous view of delegation of responsibility, contract structure and so on. Moreover, the demographic development in the country shows a high demand for public buildings in the future and especially in nursing and care homes.

This dissertation describes a proposed methodology for Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) with the purpose of improving the process by making it both more substantive and quantitative. The general principles of the approach include the following: use of effect-based analyses where selected Valued Component (VC) sensitivities are identified first and then effect pathways are determined building bottom-up linkages from VC sensitivities to potential stressors or combinations of stressors to effect drivers and forces behind the drivers. Models were developed based on statistical or historic trend analysis or literature review that predicted the responses of the VCs to changes in effect drivers. Further, scenarios of divergent futures were created that involved different developments of each effect driver or force, and finally the models were applied to each scenario to project the state of the studied VCs. A practical implementation was conducted to demonstrate the use of the proposed methods on future population trends of two anadromous salmon species from the Cowichan River, British Columbia, Chinook and Coho. The assessment was conducted for both early freshwater and marine phases of their life. For the freshwater phase, the assessment focused on two main factors affecting salmon survival, streamflow and stream temperature and established two main drivers affecting these stressors, land use and climate change, and two main forces behind these drivers, Local and Global human development driven change, respectively. Effects of stream temperature and streamflow on salmon freshwater survival were simulated using two models; one was based on Chinook freshwater survival correlations with stream temperature and was developed only for Chinook, and the other was based on literature-derived temperature and streamflow thresholds and was developed for both species. Connections between the stressors (stream temperature and streamflow) and drivers (land use and climate change) were established through a hydrologic model and stream temperature regression model. For the marine environment, models were created using Pearson correlation and stepwise regression analysis examining links between survival of Cowichan River Chinook and Strait of Georgia hatchery-raised and wild Coho and various environmental variables of the nearshore zone of Strait of Georgia and Juan de Fuca Strait. The models were applied to project future salmon survival under four future scenarios for 2050 that were created by combining two opposite scenarios of land use in the watershed, forest conservation and development, and two climate change scenarios, extreme and moderate. Scenario projections showed a decrease in overall (combined early freshwater marine) survival by 2050 for all three studied salmon populations. None of them are likely to survive in scenarios with extreme climate change, while scenarios with moderate climate change showed positive survival rates although lower than present-day baseline levels. Analysis also showed that land use management within the Cowichan River watershed can also affect freshwater survival of both Chinook and Coho and marine survival of Chinook through influence of river discharge on nearshore processes. However, our land-use management scenarios have considerably weaker effect than climate change on salmon survival. Therefore, we conclude that land use management alone is not sufficient to offset effects of climate change on salmon survival. / Graduate

Environmental risk assessment of chemical substances in the European Union is based on a harmonised scheme. The required models and parameters are laid down in the Technical Guidance Document (TGD) and are implemented in the EUSES software. An evaluation study of the TGD exposure models was carried out. In particular, the models for estimating chemical intake by humans were investigated. The objective of this study was two-fold: firstly, to develop an evaluation methodology, since no appropriate approach is available in the scientific literature. Secondly, to elaborate applicability and limitations of the models and to provide proposals for their improvement. The principles of model evaluation in terms of quality assurance, model validation and software evaluation were elaborated and a suitable evaluation protocol for chemical risk assessment models was developed. Quality assurance of a model includes internal (e.g. an investigation of the underlying theory) and external (e.g. a comparison of the results with experimental data) validation, and addresses the evaluation of the respective software. It should focus not only on the predictive capability of a model, but also on the strength of the theoretical underpinnings, evidence supporting the model?s conceptualisation, the database and the software. The external validation was performed using a set of reference substances with different physico-chemical properties and use patterns. Additionally, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were carried out, and alternative models were discussed. Recommendations for improvements and maintenance of the risk assessment methodology were presented. To perform the software evaluation quality criteria for risk assessment software were developed. From a theoretical point of view, it was shown that the models strongly depend on the lipophilicity of the substance, that the underlying assumptions drastically limit the applicability, and that realistic concentrations may seldom be expected. If the models are applied without adjustment, high uncertainties must inevitably be expected. However, many cases were found in which the models deliver highly valuable results. The overall system was classified as a good compromise between complexity and practicability. But several chemicals and classes of chemicals, respectively, with several restrictions were revealed: The investigated models used to assess indirect exposure to humans are in parts currently not applicable for dissociating compounds, very polar compounds, very lipophilic compounds, ions, some surfactants, and compounds in which metabolites provide the problems and mixtures. In a strict sense, the method is only applicable for persistent, non-dissociating chemicals of intermediate lipophilicity. Further limitations may exist. Regarding the software, it was found that EUSES basically fulfils the postulated criteria but is highly complex and non-transparent. To overcome the inadequacies a more modular design is proposed.