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The Brazilian Amazon has been undergoing a process of population growth and urbanization in recent decades. Its urban population increased from 42% to 71% between 1960 and 2010, and in the last decade, its overall population grew around 21%. Such rises bring important consequences not only economically, but also in environmental terms, especially considering that the largest remaining rainforest in the world is located within this region. Nevertheless, this scenario is still poorly addressed by literature. Bearing this in mind, this thesis aims to examine some economic and environmental aspects related to this context, and is specifically divided into three essays. Firstly, a spatial econometric approach is implemented, based on the framework of spatial economics models, in order to investigate whether this process of urbanization has been generating local economic growth and development. In the second essay, aiming to measure the environmental impacts of such population growth and urbanization, an Interregional Input-Output model is built, for the year of 2004, merging data regarding the productive structure and land use transition in the Brazilian Amazon. Specifically, this method allows the measurement of how much local deforestation may be attributed to the consumption of goods and services demanded by households living within the region, considering all direct and indirect production of inputs and outputs in every region of Brazil. Moreover, in order to capture the effects of local urbanization, special focus is given to the demands of the families living within the five Brazilian Amazon metropolitan regions. Finally, in the third essay, given that population growth and urbanization processes are directly related to migration flows, an econometric model was implemented in order to investigate the determinants of immigration and emigration flows between the Brazilian Amazon and the rest of Brazil. This estimation allowed the comparison of the reasons that have been driving the exit and the entry of individuals in the region. Such methodology makes use of estimators which take into account econometric problems commonly attributed by literature to the modeling of migration flows, such as the sample selection issue regarding the potential differences in skills between migrants and non-migrants. As main results, we find evidence that these local processes of urbanization and population growth have been causing a \"trade -off\" in the region: on the one hand, such processes seem to be driving local economic growth and development, but on the other, they also tend to increase regional deforestation. Furthermore, we find evidence that although the immigration and emigration flows of the Brazilian Amazon have been currently well-balanced, local vegetative growth still has been fueling such population growth and urbanization. Moreover, we find that the motivations which lead individuals to immigrate to the Brazilian Amazon are quite distinct from those that encourage people to leave it: whereas the former seek immediate higher levels of real income, the latter seem to move to cities with higher levels of education. / A Amazônia Brasileira vem passando por um processo de crescimento populacional e urbanização nas últimas décadas. Sua população urbana passou de 42% para 71% entre 1960 e 2010, e na última década o crescimento populacional da região foi de 21%. Tais processos trazem consigo consequências importantes não apenas em termos econômicos, mas também em termos ambientais, especialmente se considerando que a maior floresta tropical do mundo está localizada nesta região. No entanto, este aspecto é ainda pouco estudado pela literatura econômica. Tendo isto em vista, este trabalho se propõe a estudar alguns aspectos econômicos e ambientais relacionados este quadro, divididos em três ensaios. No primeiro, são utilizados métodos de econometria espacial, baseados em modelos de economia espacial, para investigar se este processo de urbanização tem causado crescimento e desenvolvimento econômico local. No segundo ensaio, a fim de medir os impactos ambientais do crescimento populacional e da urbanização locais, informações a respeito da estrutura produtiva e do uso do solo na Amazônia Brasileira são cruzadas em um modelo Inter-regional de Insumo-Produto, que mede o quanto do desmatamento anual da floresta Amazônica é devido ao consumo de bens e serviços por parte das famílias que vivem na região, considerando toda a cadeia produtiva brasileira. A fim de capturar os efeitos da urbanização, foco especial é dado às demandas das famílias que vivem nas cinco regiões metropolitanas da Amazônia Brasileira. Por fim, no terceiro ensaio, devido ao fato de que urbanização e crescimento populacional são processos diretamente relacionados à migração de indivíduos, é desenvolvida uma metodologia econométrica que investiga os determinantes dos fluxos imigratórios e emigratórios entre a Amazônia Brasileira e o restante do Brasil, no intuito de comparar os motivos que causam a entrada e saída de pessoas na região. Tal metodologia faz uso de estimadores que levam em conta problemas comumente atribuídos pela literatura na modelagem de fluxos migratórios, como a questão da seleção amostral relativa a potenciais diferenças de habilidade entre populações de migrantes e de não migrantes. Como principais resultados, encontramos evidências de que tais processos de urbanização e crescimento populacional têm causado um \"trade-off\" econômico-ambiental na região: por um lado tais processos têm promovido o desenvolvimento e crescimento econômico local, mas por outro lado, eles também vêm causando aumento dos níveis do desmatamento regional. Além disso, encontramos evidência de que embora os fluxos imigratórios e emigratórios relativos à Amazônia encontrem-se equilibrados atualmente, o crescimento vegetativo local ainda alimenta os processo de crescimento populacional e urbanização. Finalmente, nossos resultados apontam que as motivações que levam indivíduos a se mudarem para a Amazônia são distintas daquelas que levam pessoas a se deixarem a região: enquanto os primeiros buscam maiores níveis imediatos de renda real, os últimos buscam mais claramente se mudarem para municípios com melhores níveis educacionais.

Public bureaucracy finds itself in a strange place at the intersection of political science and public administration. Political science finds that, within representative democracy, discretion granted to bureaucrats threatens the nature of democracy by subverting politicians who represent the will of the people – bureaucracy vs democracy. At the same time, public administration holds that, in the interest of promoting democracy, bureaucracy should be objective in its implementation of policy in a way that eliminates the influence of politics from decision-making – politics vs bureaucracy. Those positions are seemingly contradictory in nature. From one perspective, bureaucracy is undemocratic because it is outside of politics, yet an overreach of politics into the bureaucracy yields undemocratic outcomes. Bureaucracy can facilitate democracy outside of politics. This study looks to empirically test whether local bureaucrats, who should be willing to act in-line with influential co-partisans, might still promote democratic outcomes for their constituents with their discretionary decision-making. Florida provides an empirical backdrop for testing bureaucracy’s impact on democracy with a natural experimental scenario created with the passing of new early voting limitations in 2011. Florida’s Republican (R) lawmakers passed House Bill 1355 (HB 1355), which was signed into law by Governor Scott (R), that dramatically limited the early voting days allowed for federal elections. HB 1355 changed the early voting (EV) period from fourteen (14) days to eight (8) days and eliminated the last Sunday before Election Day as well. The move was widely seen as a political calculation aimed at stifling the participation of Democrats in the 2012 General Election. In seeming lockstep, local Supervisors of Elections (SOEs) from both parties utilized their statutory discretion over the location of early voting sites to alter the distribution of sites before the 2012 General Election. I find that Republican SOEs did not distribute early voting locations in a way that negatively impacted early voting participation rates (EVPR) for their local precincts. Furthermore, I find that, all else equal, their decisions did not statistically impact EVPR differently than the EVPR in communities managed by Democrats. Republican SOEs did not add new costs to voters in their communities. I provide new evidence that demonstrates that bureaucrats can indeed limit the impact of undue politics from their influential co-partisans to promote more democratic outcomes.

This thesis consists of four self-contained empirical essays. In the first essays "Markets for Risk and Openness to Trade: How are They Related?" (with Helena Svaleryd), we ask if there is an empirical relationship between financial development and openness to trade. Numerous theoretical papers have noted that trade policies can be used as an insurance against shocks from international markets. It follows that the development of markets for risk should reduce the incentives to rely on trade policy for insurance purposes. Feeney and Hillman (2001) explicitly demonstrate how asset-market incompleteness can affect trade policy in a model where trade policy is determined by the lobbying of interest groups. If risk can be fully diversified, special-interest groups have no incentive to lobby for protection, and free trade will prevail. Likewise, trade liberalization might increase the demand for financial services, thereby spurring the development of financial markets. Using several indicators of both openness to trade and financial development, we find an economically significant relation between the two. In particular, the relation holds when using the well known, although criticized (Rodriguez and Rodrik 1999), Sachs-Warner index, and structurally adjusted trade, as indicators of openness. For tariff levels and non-tariff barriers, the results hold only for relatively rich countries. Causality seems to be running both from openness to financial development and the other way around, depending on which indicator and methodology are used. Due to underlying technological differences, industries differ in their need for external financing (Rajan and Zingales, 1998). Since services provided by the financial sector are largely immobile across countries (Pagano et al., 2001), the pattern of specialization should be influenced by the degree of financial development. In the second essay, "Financial Markets, the Pattern of Specialization, and Comparative Advantage: Evidence from OECD Countries" (with Helena Svaleryd), we find this effect to be strong. In fact, the financial sector has an even greater impact on the pattern of specialization among OECD countries than differences in human- and physical capital. Further, the financial sector gives rise to comparative advantage in a way consistent with the Hecksher-Ohlin-Vanek model. Large and active stock markets, as well as the degree of concentration in the banking sector, produce the strongest and most consistent effects. The results also support the view that the quality accounting standards and the legal protection of creditors affect the pattern of industry specialization, while the depth of the financial system (measured by the amount of liquidity in an economy) is a source of comparative advantage. The third essay, "Who Wants Political Integration? Evidence from the Swedish EU-Membership Referendum" looks directly at the determinants of political attitudes towards regional integration and separation. More precisely, the regional voting pattern of the 1994 Swedish EU-membership referendum is analyzed. To explain this variation, an empirical investigation based on the extensive theoretical literature analyzing the determinants of regional economic and political integration is undertaken. Since enhanced possibilities of inter-regional risk sharing is one of the main gains from integration discussed in the literature (e.g Persson and Tabellini, 1996), special attention is given to this issue. The empirical results show that individuals living in labor markets exposed to a high degree of risk were more negative towards EU-membership than those living in safe ones. It is also shown that inhabitants of high-income labor markets, with a high level of schooling and small receipts of central government transfers were relatively positive towards the EU-membership. Given the restrictive regulations limiting discretionary policies within the EU, these results suggest that inhabitants of safe and rich regions voted in favor of secession from the Swedish transfer system, rather than in favor of European integration. In the final essay, "Does Labor Market Risk Increase the Size of the Public Sector? Evidence From Swedish Municipalities", I study if a high degree of private labor-market risk is related to a larger public sector in Swedish municipalities. The theoretical hypothesis is based on Rodrik (1998), who argues (and shows empirically) that countries exposed to a high degree of external risk also tend to have larger governments. The safe public sector is expanded at the expense of risky sectors and hence provides insurance against income volatility. Several problems related to data availability and comparability that apply to cross-country studies are circumvented by using data on Swedish municipalities. Further, there is no need to aggregate the public sector across different levels of governance: local risk is directly related to the size of the local public sector. The paper is not a complete parallel to Rodrik’s study, however. Several alternative insurance mechanisms that do not exist between countries are available between municipalities. For example, the central government provides insurance against individual-specific risk such as unemployment and illness, private capital markets are better integrated within than between countries, and the central government can hand out grants to municipalities. Despite these mitigating factors, local labor-market risk is found to have a substantial impact on municipal public employment. It is also found that shocks increasing the size of the public sector across all municipalities tend to generate a larger increase in risky locations. For municipal public spending and taxation the results are, however, much weaker. Hence, labor-market risk affects the labor intensity of the municipal public sector, rather than its size. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2002</p>

Der Gründung von neuen Unternehmen wird seit einigen Jahren sowohl von Wissenschaftlern als auch von Politikern eine wachsende Aufmerksamkeit zuteil. So sind diese überzeugt, dass die Gründungsaktivität einen positiven Beitrag für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung eines Landes leistet. Schon aus dieser Überzeugung heraus werden in Deutschland Gründungen mit unterschiedlichsten Unterstützungsleistungen gefördert. Einerseits werden z. B. mittels Gründungszuschuss und Einstiegsgeld Gründungen aus Arbeitslosigkeit unterstützt mit dem hauptsächlichen Ziel, die Arbeitslosigkeit der betreffenden Person zu beenden oder zu vermeiden (vgl. Sozialgesetzbuch Drittes Buch - Arbeitsförderung - § 57 und Sozialgesetzbuch Zweites Buch - Grundsicherung für Arbeitsuchende - § 29). Andererseits fördert der Staat beispielsweise mittels der EXIST-Programme innovative Gründungen bzw. Gründungen aus Hochschulen und Forschungseinrichtungen, von denen auch erwartet wird, dass sie in größerem Umfang Arbeitsplätze schaffen, Effizienz sicherstellen, den Strukturwandel beschleunigen, für mehr Vielfalt am Markt sorgen und nicht zuletzt den Wettbewerb steigern und damit das Wachstum einer Volkswirtschaft vorantreiben. Sicherlich sind aber von den meisten Gründungen keine „Wachstumswunder“ zu erwarten, vor allem nicht von Gründungen aus Arbeitslosigkeit. Ein Großteil der Gründer sichert mit der Selbstständigkeit nur das jeweils eigene Einkommen. Viele Gründungen bleiben klein, schaffen keine oder kaum Arbeitsplätze und tragen nur in äußerst geringem Maße zum Wachstum einer Volkswirtschaft bei. Ein erstes Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, Gründungen aus Beschäftigung und Gründungen aus Arbeitslosigkeit miteinander zu vergleichen, denn beide Gründungsalternativen müssten sich im Hinblick auf ihre Motivation und ihren Erfolg deutlich voneinander unterscheiden. Nur sehr wenige Studien zum Gründungsgeschehen differenzieren nach dem der Selbstständigkeit vorangegangenen Erwerbs- bzw. Nichterwerbsstatus, obwohl bereits zu diesem Zeitpunkt Unterschiede im Entscheidungsverhalten zwischen arbeitslosen und beschäftigten Personen vorliegen. Während, rein monetär betrachtet, Beschäftigte nur zwischen ihrem jetzigen Einkommen und dem zukünftig erwarteten Einkommen aus der Selbstständigkeit entscheiden müssen, besteht für Arbeitslose die Wahl zwischen Einkommen aus einer möglichen abhängigen Beschäftigung, Einkommen aus einer eventuellen Selbstständigkeit oder weiterer Arbeitslosigkeit. Bezüglich des Erfolges sind Gründungen aus Beschäftigung vermutlich stärker darauf ausgelegt, zu wachsen und Arbeitsmöglichkeiten für andere Personen zu schaffen als Gründungen aus Arbeitslosigkeit, bei denen die Existenzsicherung des Gründers vorrangig sein dürfte. Ein weiteres, zweites Ziel der Arbeit besteht darin die bisherige empirische Evidenz zum Gründungsgeschehen zu erweitern, zu validieren bzw. zu verifizieren, indem Modelle der räumlichen Ökonometrie zur Analyse des regionalen Gründungsgeschehens genutzt werden. Ein solcher Schritt fehlt in bereits vorhandenen Studien ganz oder die Einbeziehung räumlicher Effekte erfolgt nur indirekt und unvollständig, was die erzielten Ergebnisse verzerren kann. Allein durch die Beobachtung und Kommunikation mit anderen Gründern im näheren Umfeld oder durch Netzwerke und Cluster dürften regionale Effekte entstehen, die das eigene Gründungsvorhaben beeinflussen. Um diese beiden Ziele zu verfolgen, gliedert sich die Arbeit in vier einzeln für sich lesbare Kapitel, für die in den nachfolgenden Abschnitten die jeweils detaillierten Forschungsschwerpunkte beschrieben sind. Die Analysen zur Gründungsaktivität aus Beschäftigung und aus Arbeitslosigkeit umfassen dabei vor allem die regionale Ebene (Kapitel 2 und Kapitel 3) berücksichtigen aber auch die individuelle Dimension (Kapitel 5). Während in den ersten beiden Kapiteln der Gründungszeitpunkt interessiert, widmen sich die beiden anschließenden Kapitel den direkten Beschäftigungswirkungen, d. h. der Entwicklung der Beschäftigung in der Gründung selbst bzw. dem Erfolg, der von Gründungen allgemein (Kapitel 4) und speziell von Gründungen aus Arbeitslosigkeit zu erwarten ist (Kapitel 5).

Submitted by Edimilson Costa Lucas (costalucas@yahoo.com) on 2015-11-10T13:28:51Z No. of bitstreams: 1 EdimilsonCostaLucas_TESE.pdf: 2525096 bytes, checksum: 88b5fc4a39e14115350d9a7fddece121 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Tereza Fernandes Conselmo (maria.conselmo@fgv.br) on 2015-11-11T12:34:10Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 EdimilsonCostaLucas_TESE.pdf: 2525096 bytes, checksum: 88b5fc4a39e14115350d9a7fddece121 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-11-11T12:38:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 EdimilsonCostaLucas_TESE.pdf: 2525096 bytes, checksum: 88b5fc4a39e14115350d9a7fddece121 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-10-19 / The occurrence of extreme weather events, such as increased temperature, hurricanes, floods and droughts has been increasingly common around of the world. The finance literature has documented efforts directed to the assessment of economic impacts from climate change that can bring significant consequences for the world economy. However, especially in Brazil, a key emerging market, little has been studied mainly with a view to assessing the impacts of climate events in the company level. Thus, this thesis analyzes, in an unprecedented manner, the impact of weather events on the value of companies belonging to two high national interest industries, in the form of two essays. First it analyzes the impact of extreme rainfall on the stock price of the Brazilian food sector. Therefore, it is conducted the research using daily data in share prices of six companies of this industry. From the location to the main area of activity of these companies, they are considered their daily data on extreme rainfall. With the use of hybrid methodology ARMA-GARCH-GPD, it was found that the evaluated companies, the extreme rainfall impacted significantly in more than half of the 198 days of extreme rainfall between 02/28/2005 and 12/30/2014, resulting in average losses daily around 1.97% on the day after the heavy rainfall. In terms of market value, this represents total average loss of around US$ 682.15 million in a single day. Second it evaluates the impact of climate variables and location on the value of companies in the energy sector in Brazil, from data on companies in the Brazilian electricity sector, as well as rainfall, temperature and geographical location of the companies. From the analysis of data in static panel and spatial panel, the results suggest that temperature and precipitation have significant effect on the value of these companies. This study can contribute in the process of structuring and creating a weather derivatives market in Brazil. / A ocorrência de eventos climáticos extremos, tais como aumento da temperatura, furacões, enchentes e secas, tem sido cada vez mais frequente ao redor do mundo. A literatura de finanças tem documentado esforços dirigidos à avaliação de impactos econômicos oriundos das variações climáticas, com consequências significantes na economia mundial. Entretanto, especialmente no Brasil, um dos principais mercados emergentes, pouco tem sido pesquisado, sobretudo com vistas à avaliação dos impactos de eventos climáticos no nível das empresas. Sendo assim, esta tese analisa, de forma inédita, o impacto de eventos climáticos sobre o valor de empresas pertencentes a duas indústrias de elevado interesse nacional, sob a forma de dois ensaios. Em primeiro lugar analisa-se o impacto de chuvas extremas sobre o preço de ações do setor de alimentos brasileiro. Para tanto, é conduzida a pesquisa empregando dados diários do preço de ações de seis empresas dessa indústria. A partir da localização da principal região de atuação dessas empresas, são considerados os respectivos dados diários referentes às chuvas extremas. Com o emprego da metodologia híbrida ARMA-GARCH-GPD, constatou-se que, nas empresas avaliadas, as chuvas extremas impactaram significantemente em mais da metade dos 198 dias de chuvas extremas ocorridos entre 28/02/2005 e 30/12/2014, acarretando perdas médias diárias ao redor de 1,97% no dia posterior a chuva extrema. Em termos de valor de mercado, isso representa perda média total ao redor de US$682,15 mi em um único dia. Em segundo lugar avalia-se o impacto de variáveis climáticas e localização sobre o valor das empresas do setor de energia do Brasil, a partir de dados referentes às empresas do setor elétrico brasileiro, bem como precipitação pluviométrica, temperatura e localização geográfica das empresas. A partir da análise de dados em painel estático e painel espacial, os resultados sugerem que temperatura e precipitação pluviométrica têm efeito significante sobre o valor dessas empresas. O presente estudo pode vir a contribuir no processo de estruturação e criação de um mercado de derivativos climáticos no Brasil.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-10-17T13:34:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 tercianesabatinicarvalho.pdf: 2411280 bytes, checksum: b3e6a12356189399e279b23c9217ee6f (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-10-25T11:55:03Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 tercianesabatinicarvalho.pdf: 2411280 bytes, checksum: b3e6a12356189399e279b23c9217ee6f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-10-25T11:55:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tercianesabatinicarvalho.pdf: 2411280 bytes, checksum: b3e6a12356189399e279b23c9217ee6f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-12-15 / As questões sobre o meio ambiente, ano após ano, vêm desempenhando um destacado papel no debate global sobre o futuro do planeta. Devido à liberação de enormes quantidades de CO2 na combustão de energias fósseis, as suas emissões são classificadas como uma das forças motrizes por trás do fenômeno do aquecimento global. Em todo o mundo, as emissões dos gases de “efeito estufa” (GEE) estão aumentando, apesar dos esforços comuns para implementar acordos internacionais, como o Protocolo de Quioto. Nesse contexto, esta dissertação visa investigar a hipótese da Curva de Kuznets Ambiental (CKA) global e a sua relação com o Protocolo de Quioto. Portanto, um de seus objetivos é verificar se existe uma relação na forma de U invertido entre um índice de degradação ambiental global (emissões de CO2 per capita) e o crescimento econômico (medido pelo PIB per capita) para uma amostra de 167 países durante o período de 2000-2004, utilizando um modelo de efeitos fixos com dependência espacial. Outro objetivo desta dissertação é avaliar o papel do Protocolo de Quioto como uma política global, a fim de reduzir as emissões. Para isso, uma variável dummy, representando os países que ratificaram o Protocolo, é adicionada do lado direito da regressão. Além disso, mais três variáveis são colocadas no lado direito da regressão: nível de comércio, consumo de energia e densidade populacional. Os resultados da Análise Exploratória de Dados Espaciais (AEDE) revelaram que as emissões de CO2 per capita não são distribuídas aleatoriamente, bem como identificou uma série de países que emitem mais do que os outros países: Estados Unidos, Canadá, Austrália, Barein, Brunei, Kuwait, Luxemburgo, Emirados Árabes Unidos, Trinidad e Tobago e Aruba. A AEDE encontrou a existência de clusters, mostrando que o padrão Baixo-Baixo ocorre principalmente nos países mais pobres africanos e asiáticos, enquanto o padrão Alto-Alto aparece essencialmente nos países europeus e países do sudoeste asiático. Os resultados econométricos, a princípio, sugerem a existência de uma CKA na forma de “N” e não de “U” invertido, encontrando os seguintes “pontos de inflexão”: US$ 12.262,44 e US$ 27.083,33. As demais variáveis explicativas também apresentaram os sinais esperados e todas exibiram um coeficiente altamente significativo. Cerca de 80% da amostra não possuem renda acima do ponto de inflexão calculado, ou seja, a grande maioria dos países se encontraria na primeira parte ascendente da curva, revelando que no intervalo de renda observado para os 167 países, muitos exibem uma curva monotonicamente crescente. Isso parece confirmar e ilustrar a natureza global do impacto do dióxido de carbono, revelando que há pouco incentivo para as nações tomarem ações unilaterais para reduzir suas emissões, e que ações multilaterais estão sendo desenvolvidas lentamente. Outra questão importante é o coeficiente negativo e estatisticamente significativo para a variável dummy dos países que ratificaram o Protocolo de Quioto, revelando a importância de acordos internacionais na redução do montante global das emissões de carbono per capita. Portanto, o crescimento econômico sozinho não pode substituir políticas que aspirem a redução das emissões de CO2. Este resultado sugere que políticas internacionais podem ajudar a reduzir as emissões de GEE, mas é preciso que mais países se comprometam nessa redução. Portanto, crescimento econômico por si só não garante a cura para os problemas relacionados ao meio ambiente. As políticas ambientais têm papel fundamental na inversão da trajetória dos poluentes que seguem a CKA. / Over the years environmental issues have been playing a remarkable role in the global debate about the Earth future. Due to the release of huge amounts of CO2 in the combustion of fossil fuels, its emissions are classified as one of the driving forces behind the global warming phenomenon. Worldwide, emissions of the "greenhouse effect" gases (GHG) are increasing, despite the joint efforts to implement international agreements like the Kyoto Protocol. In this context, the present dissertation is aimed at investigating the Global Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and its relationship with the Kyoto Protocol. Therefore, one of its objectives is to verify whether there is an inverted U shaped relationship between an index of global environmental degradation (per capita CO2 emissions) and economic growth (measured by per capita GDP) for a sample of 167 countries over the period 2000-2004, using a fixed effect model with spatial dependence. Another objective of this dissertation is to evaluate the role of the Kyoto Protocol as a global policy in order to reduce emissions. To do so, a dummy variable, representing the countries that have ratified the Protocol, is put in right hand of the regression. Besides, another three variables are inserted in the right hand of regression: the trade level, energy consumption and population density. The findings from Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) revealed that per capita CO2 emissions are not randomly distributed, as well as identified a number of countries that emit more than the other countries, namely, United States, Canada, Australia, Bahrain, Brunei, Kuwait, Luxembourg, United Arab Emirates, Trinidad and Tobago and Aruba. The ESDA analysis found the existence of clusters, showing that the low-low pattern occurs mainly in the poorest countries Asian and African, whereas the High High pattern appears mainly in European countries and countries in Southeast Asia. The econometric results, in principle, suggest the existence of a CKA in the form of "N" rather than "U" inverted, finding the following "turning points": US$ 12,262.44 and US$ 27,083.33. The other explanatory variables also showed the expected signs and all exhibited a highly significant coefficient. Around 80% of the sample did not have income above the “turning point” calculated, that is, the vast majority of countries are in the first upward part curve, revealing that in the range of income observed for the 167 countries, many have a curve monotonically increasing. This seems to confirm and illustrate the global nature of the carbon dioxide impact, revealing that there is little incentive for nations takes unilateral actions to reduce their emissions, as well as multilateral actions are being developed slowly. Another important issue is the negative coefficient, and statistically significant, for the dummy variables of the countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, showing the importance of international agreements on reducing the overall amount of per capita carbon emission. Therefore, economic growth alone cannot replace policies that aspire to reducing CO2 emissions. This result suggests that international policies can help reduce GHG emissions, but we need more countries to commit such reduction. Therefore, economic growth alone does not guarantee a cure for the problems related to the environment. Environmental policies have key role in reversing the trajectory of pollutants that follow the CKA.

The Brazilian Amazon has been undergoing a process of population growth and urbanization in recent decades. Its urban population increased from 42% to 71% between 1960 and 2010, and in the last decade, its overall population grew around 21%. Such rises bring important consequences not only economically, but also in environmental terms, especially considering that the largest remaining rainforest in the world is located within this region. Nevertheless, this scenario is still poorly addressed by literature. Bearing this in mind, this thesis aims to examine some economic and environmental aspects related to this context, and is specifically divided into three essays. Firstly, a spatial econometric approach is implemented, based on the framework of spatial economics models, in order to investigate whether this process of urbanization has been generating local economic growth and development. In the second essay, aiming to measure the environmental impacts of such population growth and urbanization, an Interregional Input-Output model is built, for the year of 2004, merging data regarding the productive structure and land use transition in the Brazilian Amazon. Specifically, this method allows the measurement of how much local deforestation may be attributed to the consumption of goods and services demanded by households living within the region, considering all direct and indirect production of inputs and outputs in every region of Brazil. Moreover, in order to capture the effects of local urbanization, special focus is given to the demands of the families living within the five Brazilian Amazon metropolitan regions. Finally, in the third essay, given that population growth and urbanization processes are directly related to migration flows, an econometric model was implemented in order to investigate the determinants of immigration and emigration flows between the Brazilian Amazon and the rest of Brazil. This estimation allowed the comparison of the reasons that have been driving the exit and the entry of individuals in the region. Such methodology makes use of estimators which take into account econometric problems commonly attributed by literature to the modeling of migration flows, such as the sample selection issue regarding the potential differences in skills between migrants and non-migrants. As main results, we find evidence that these local processes of urbanization and population growth have been causing a \"trade -off\" in the region: on the one hand, such processes seem to be driving local economic growth and development, but on the other, they also tend to increase regional deforestation. Furthermore, we find evidence that although the immigration and emigration flows of the Brazilian Amazon have been currently well-balanced, local vegetative growth still has been fueling such population growth and urbanization. Moreover, we find that the motivations which lead individuals to immigrate to the Brazilian Amazon are quite distinct from those that encourage people to leave it: whereas the former seek immediate higher levels of real income, the latter seem to move to cities with higher levels of education. / A Amazônia Brasileira vem passando por um processo de crescimento populacional e urbanização nas últimas décadas. Sua população urbana passou de 42% para 71% entre 1960 e 2010, e na última década o crescimento populacional da região foi de 21%. Tais processos trazem consigo consequências importantes não apenas em termos econômicos, mas também em termos ambientais, especialmente se considerando que a maior floresta tropical do mundo está localizada nesta região. No entanto, este aspecto é ainda pouco estudado pela literatura econômica. Tendo isto em vista, este trabalho se propõe a estudar alguns aspectos econômicos e ambientais relacionados este quadro, divididos em três ensaios. No primeiro, são utilizados métodos de econometria espacial, baseados em modelos de economia espacial, para investigar se este processo de urbanização tem causado crescimento e desenvolvimento econômico local. No segundo ensaio, a fim de medir os impactos ambientais do crescimento populacional e da urbanização locais, informações a respeito da estrutura produtiva e do uso do solo na Amazônia Brasileira são cruzadas em um modelo Inter-regional de Insumo-Produto, que mede o quanto do desmatamento anual da floresta Amazônica é devido ao consumo de bens e serviços por parte das famílias que vivem na região, considerando toda a cadeia produtiva brasileira. A fim de capturar os efeitos da urbanização, foco especial é dado às demandas das famílias que vivem nas cinco regiões metropolitanas da Amazônia Brasileira. Por fim, no terceiro ensaio, devido ao fato de que urbanização e crescimento populacional são processos diretamente relacionados à migração de indivíduos, é desenvolvida uma metodologia econométrica que investiga os determinantes dos fluxos imigratórios e emigratórios entre a Amazônia Brasileira e o restante do Brasil, no intuito de comparar os motivos que causam a entrada e saída de pessoas na região. Tal metodologia faz uso de estimadores que levam em conta problemas comumente atribuídos pela literatura na modelagem de fluxos migratórios, como a questão da seleção amostral relativa a potenciais diferenças de habilidade entre populações de migrantes e de não migrantes. Como principais resultados, encontramos evidências de que tais processos de urbanização e crescimento populacional têm causado um \"trade-off\" econômico-ambiental na região: por um lado tais processos têm promovido o desenvolvimento e crescimento econômico local, mas por outro lado, eles também vêm causando aumento dos níveis do desmatamento regional. Além disso, encontramos evidência de que embora os fluxos imigratórios e emigratórios relativos à Amazônia encontrem-se equilibrados atualmente, o crescimento vegetativo local ainda alimenta os processo de crescimento populacional e urbanização. Finalmente, nossos resultados apontam que as motivações que levam indivíduos a se mudarem para a Amazônia são distintas daquelas que levam pessoas a se deixarem a região: enquanto os primeiros buscam maiores níveis imediatos de renda real, os últimos buscam mais claramente se mudarem para municípios com melhores níveis educacionais.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-07-11T19:54:02Z No. of bitstreams: 1 brunosilvademoraesgomes.pdf: 1747428 bytes, checksum: 7e53b68b70076b1659f5a8389f52ebbb (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-08-08T15:42:18Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 brunosilvademoraesgomes.pdf: 1747428 bytes, checksum: 7e53b68b70076b1659f5a8389f52ebbb (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-08T15:42:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 brunosilvademoraesgomes.pdf: 1747428 bytes, checksum: 7e53b68b70076b1659f5a8389f52ebbb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-05-31 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Essa tese busca analisar as questões espaciais de saúde nos municípios brasileiros. Dessa forma, o artigo 1 investiga as evidências de ciclos eleitorais e partidários e interação espacial nas despesas com saúde e saneamento. O modelo de painel dinâmico espacial propiciou observar se ocorre o aumento das despesas com saúde e saneamento nos anos de eleição municipal e quais os partidos que mais gastam com saúde e saneamento. Identificou que o padrão dessas despesas é influenciado pelo comportamento das despesas nos municípios vizinhos. Nota-se a presença do efeito spillovers, pois os governantes reduzem suas despesas com saúde e saneamento ao observarem que os vizinhos aumentam as despesas. O artigo 2 analisa as questões espaciais da Estratégia Saúde da Família (ESF) capazes de influenciar a taxa de mortalidade infantil e de crianças de 1 a 4 anos nos municípios brasileiros entre 1998 e 2012. A estimação se dá por dados por painel espacial. Como resultado, observa-se a presença dos efeitos do tipo feedback, em que os efeitos diretos da ESF passam para os vizinhos e retornam e o espraiamento da razão de cobertura dos vizinhos na redução da mortalidade infantil e de 1 a 4 anos. Assim, conclui-se que um aumento da ESF em um município reduz as taxas de mortalidade infantil e de 1 a 4 anos nos vizinhos, sendo esse efeito maior para mortalidade infantil. E o artigo 3 analisa a migração médica identificando se há efeito gotejamento nos municípios brasileiros para médicos generalistas e especialistas. Utiliza-se os dados do Censo 2010 e o modelo hierárquico espacial de dois níveis, o primeiro com os dados individuais e o segundo com os dados municipais (incorporando as defasagens espaciais). Como resultados confirma-se a importância da inclusão das variáveis individuais, municipais e espaciais e verifica-se a inexistência do efeito de gotejamento para migração médica tanto de generalistas (que estão dispersos pelos municípios aleatoriamente) quanto de especialista nos municípios brasileiros. / This thesis aims to analyze spatial health issues in Brazilian municipalities. Thus, article investigates the evidence of electoral and partisan cycles and spatial interaction in health and sanitation expenditures. The spatial dynamic panel model allowed us to observe whether there is an increase in health and sanitation expenses in the years of municipal elections and which parties spend the most on health and sanitation. Identified that the pattern of these expenditures is influenced by the behavior of expenditures in neighboring municipalities. The spillovers effect is noticeable, as governors reduce their health and sanitation expenditures by observing that neighbors increase expenditures. Article 2 analyzes the spatial issues of the Family Health Strategy (FHS) that can influence the infant and child mortality rate of 1 to 4 years in Brazilian municipalities between 1998 and 2012. The estimation is given by data per space panel. As a result, the effects of the feedback type are observed, in which the direct effects of the FHS pass to the neighbors and return and the spreading of the coverage ratio of the neighbors in the reduction of the infant mortality and from 1 to 4 years. Thus, it is concluded that an increase in FHS in one municipality reduces infant and 1 to 4 year mortality rates in neighbors, and this effect is higher for infant mortality. And article 3 analyzes the medical migration, identifying if there is trickle down effect in Brazilian municipalities for general practitioners and specialists. Data from the Censo 2010 and the two-level spatial hierarchical model are used, the first with the individual data and the second with the municipal data (incorporating spatial lags). As a result, the importance of including individual, municipal and spatial variables is confirmed and there is no trickle down effect for medical migration, either by generalists (who are dispersed by the municipalities at random) or by specialists in the Brazilian municipalities.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2015-12-15T12:50:09Z No. of bitstreams: 1 erikacristinabarbosadealmeidaribeiro.pdf: 999031 bytes, checksum: bad7bf06e1c548d476fd710f3f22a105 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2015-12-15T13:05:10Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 erikacristinabarbosadealmeidaribeiro.pdf: 999031 bytes, checksum: bad7bf06e1c548d476fd710f3f22a105 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-12-15T13:05:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 erikacristinabarbosadealmeidaribeiro.pdf: 999031 bytes, checksum: bad7bf06e1c548d476fd710f3f22a105 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-05-25 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Em um país como o Brasil, marcado pelas desigualdades de renda pessoal e regional, o governo pode e deve utilizar políticas fiscais para tentar reduzir essas desigualdades. Caracterizado também por uma alta carga tributária e, por vezes, regressiva, a busca pela redução das desigualdades por meio de impostos no Brasil parece não surtir tanto efeito. Uma das formas para resolver esse problema seria focar nos gastos públicos de forma a tentar melhorar o bem-estar dos indivíduos brasileiros. Contudo, para tornar a política de gastos públicos eficiente é necessário conhecer as despesas municipais e entender as suas dinâmicas ao longo do tempo e do território brasileiro. Assim, essa tese busca verificar a existência de fenômenos que podem afetar o desempenho dos gastos públicos, sendo eles: efeito flypaper, race to the bottom (corrida para o fundo) e welfare migration (migração de bem-estar). O primeiro fenômeno ocorreria quando a sensibilidade dos gastos públicos fosse maior em relação a aumentos nas transferências intergovernamentais do que em relação a aumentos na renda local, se contrapondo ao Teorema do Eleitor Mediano. Já os outros dois fenômenos, a saber, race to the bottom e welfare migration, estariam ainda mais relacionados. Economistas argumentam que a migração de bem-estar (welfare migration) e a competição tributária poderiam gerar uma situação em que esses gastos municipais (direcionados a suprir a demanda de bens públicos) tenderiam a valores muito baixos, ou seja, a uma corrida para o fundo (ou, em inglês, race to the bottom). Na presença desses fenômenos, aconteceria uma interação espacial entre os gastos dos municípios com os gastos dos seus vizinhos. As análises da existência do efeito flypaper, da corrida para o fundo e da migração de bem-estar são feitas em dois ensaios para os municípios brasileiros. O primeiro contempla os anos 2000 e 2010 e analisa o efeito flypaper e suas variações, considerando a dependência financeira, a heterogeneidade espacial e desmembrando os gastos públicos entre despesas correntes e despesas de capital. Já o segundo ensaio busca indícios dos outros dois fenômenos nos mesmos anos, 2000 e 2010. Ambos usam dados em painel com correção espacial. Os principais resultados indicam a existência de efeito flypaper e de migração de bem-estar. Todavia, não são encontradas evidências de corrida para o fundo. / In a country like Brazil, marked by inequalities of personal and regional income, the government can use fiscal policy to try to reduce these inequalities. Also characterized by a high tax burden and sometimes regressive, the quest for reducing inequalities through taxes in Brazil seems not to take much effect. One way to solve this problem would be to use public expenditure in order to try to improve the welfare of Brazilian individuals. However, to make the expenditure policy effective is necessary to know the municipal expenditures and understand their dynamics over time and over Brazilian territory. Thus, this thesis seeks to verify the existence of phenomena that can affect the behavior and efficiency of public spending, namely: flypaper effect, race to the bottom and welfare migration. The first phenomenon occurs when public spending is more sensitivity to increases in intergovernmental transfers than to increases in local income, in contrast to Theorem of Median Voter. The other two phenomena, namely, race to the bottom and welfare migration, are still more related. Economists argue that the welfare migration and tax competition could lead to a situation in which these municipal expenditures (targeted to meet the demand for public goods) tend to very low values. In the presence of these phenomena, a spatial interaction between spending of municipalities with the spending of their neighbors takes place. Analysis of the existence of the flypaper effect, the race to the bottom and the welfare migration is done in two essays for the municipalities using spatial panel data. The first essay covers the years 2000 and 2010 and analyzes the flypaper effect considering the financial dependence, spatial heterogeneity and separating public expenditure between current and capital expenditures. The second one seeks for evidence of race to the bottom and welfare migration in the same years, 2000 and 2010. The main results indicate the existence of flypaper effect and welfare migration. However, there is no indication of race to the bottom.