A indústria de transformação é formada por um conjunto de setores com grande potencial para estimular o crescimento econômico, sobretudo de países em desenvolvimento, como o Brasil. Vários fatores definem as condições produtivas e tecnológicas do país, como a inovação tecnológica, a diversificação produtiva e a proximidade setorial (cognitiva e tecnológica), os quais também podem se diferenciar de acordo com os setores de atividade. Para compreender as características recentes da indústria de transformação brasileira esta tese procura responder algumas questões: i) as empresas que realizaram cooperação para inovar no Brasil apresentaram perfil distinto daquelas que inovaram sem cooperar? ii) o esforço inovativo realizado por empresas nacionais e estrangeiras é similar? iii) os subsetores da manufatura brasileira são diversificados e possuem desempenho econômico superior em relação aos não diversificados? iv) há um padrão de diversificação entre os subsetores? v) existe uma relação de proximidade produtiva e tecnológica entre os setores industriais que pode ser confirmada a partir das habilidades dos trabalhadores? Essas perguntas ajudarão a entender melhor algumas questões ainda não exploradas pela literatura brasileira com o grau de detalhamento explorado nesta tese. Para tanto, foram obtidas algumas tabulações especiais da Pesquisa de Inovação Tecnológica (Pintec) e da Pesquisa Industrial Anual Empresa (PIA-Empresa) para anos recentes. Também criou-se um índice para captar habilidades produtivas e tecnológicas relacionadas às ocupações dos trabalhadores, que foi utilizado em uma nova aplicação de modelos econométricos espaciais para medir a proximidade cognitiva e tecnológica. O detalhamento dos dados solicitados resultou em informações inéditas que permitem fazer algumas avaliações conclusivas sobre o desempenho recente da manufatura brasileira nos temas abordados. Primeiro, empresas que cooperaram para inovar apresentaram um esforço inovativo muito superior às que não cooperaram, independente da origem do capital e da categoria tecnológica, sendo que o fato de cooperar foi mais decisivo para diferenciá-las que a origem do capital. Segundo, os subsetores com plantas produtivas industriais diversificadas possuem desempenho produtivo superior frente àqueles não diversificados. Há um padrão de diversificação da produção em que subsetores tendem a diversificar mais intensamente para dentro do mesmo grupo setorial, enquanto apenas os subsetores mais tecnológicos diversificam para grupos setoriais mais distantes. Terceiro, foi encontrado um padrão em que setores que possuem trabalhadores com habilidades produtivas e tecnológicas tendem a ter em sua vizinhança setores com as mesmas características, e isso permite que efeitos econômicos transbordem para sua vizinhança. Assim, os resultados apontaram que algumas características da indústria de transformação brasileira quanto à inovação, diversificação e proximidade setorial podem ser reforçadas a fim de obter melhor desempenho econômico. Esforços inovativos podem ser ampliados ao estimular empresas inovadoras a realizarem cooperação para inovar. O desempenho dos subsetores pode ser aperfeiçoado ao ampliar a diversificação das plantas produtivas. E ainda, pode-se produzir efeitos positivos sobre a economia de forma mais ampla ao focalizar ações para setores que possuam uma rede de vizinhança mais densa e que demandam habilidades produtivas e tecnológicas / The manufacturing industry is composed of subsectors with great potential to stimulate economic growth, especially in developing countries such as Brazil. Several factors define the productive and technological conditions of a country, such as technological innovation, productive diversification and sectoral proximity (cognitive and technological), which can also be differentiated according to the sectors of activity. In order to understand the recent characteristics of the Brazilian manufacturing sector, this thesis tries to answer some questions: i) have the companies that cooperated for innovating in Brazil presented a profile different from those that innovated without cooperating? ii) is the innovative effort carried out by domestic and foreign companies similar? iii) are the subsectors of Brazilian manufacturing diversified and have superior economic performance over non-diversified ones? iv) is there a pattern of diversification among subsectors? v) is there a productive and technological proximity relationship between the manufacturing subsectors that can be confirmed by the skills of the workers? These questions will help to better understand some issues not yet explored by the Brazilian literature with the degree of detail explored in this thesis. For this purpose, some special tabulations were obtained from the Brazilian Survey of Technological Innovation and the Annual Industrial Survey of Brazil in recent years. An index was also created to capture productive and technological skills related to occupations of workers, which was used in a new application of spatial econometric models to measure cognitive and technological proximity. The detailing of the requested data resulted in unpublished information that allows making some conclusive evaluations on the recent performance of the Brazilian manufacturing in the subjects approached. First, companies that cooperated for innovating presented an innovative effort far superior to those that did not cooperate, regardless of the origin of capital and the technological category, and the fact of cooperating was more decisive to differentiate them than the origin of capital. Second, subsectors with diversified industrial productive plants have superior productive performance over non-diversified ones. There is a production\'s diversification pattern in which subsectors tend to diversify more intensively within of the same manufacturing subsector (intra-industry diversification), while only the more technological subsectors diversify between several manufacturing subsectors (inter-industry diversification). Third, a pattern has been found in which subsectors that have workers with productive and technological skills tend to have in their proximity also subsectors with the same characteristics, and this allows economic effects to overflow to their neighborhood. Thus, the results pointed out that some characteristics of the Brazilian manufacturing sector regarding innovation, diversification and sectoral proximity can be strengthened in order to obtain better economic performance. Encouraging innovative companies to cooperate in innovating can enhance innovative efforts. Performance of the subsectors can be improved by raising the diversification of productive plants. Furthermore, positive effects on the economy can be obtained more broadly by focusing on subsectors that have a denser neighborhood that demands productive and technological skills

La création du groupe C40 Cities Climate Leadership (C40) en 2005 illustre bien le fait que l'échelle urbaine est dorénavant considérée comme comportant des leviers d'action importants afin d'atténuer les émissions de CO2. Il n'y a cependant toujours pas adéquation entre cette prise de conscience et le nombre d'outils de modélisation capables de quantifier cette marge de manœuvre de manière spatialement explicite et intégrée. Cette thèse vise à combler cette lacune. L'objet produit consiste en un modèle d'équilibre général spatialisé et multi-échelle, pensé de sorte à être relié à toute architecture de modélisation préexistante. Cette thèse s'articule autour de trois chapitres, i.e. la présentation du modèle, sa calibration et son application à la France et aux USA.Dans le premier chapitre, nous décrivons le modèle, baptisé GEMSE, dont l'objectif est d'étudier les interactions entre les dimensions agrégées et locales de l'activité économique tout en quantifiant les émissions de GES associées à la mobilité. Le modèle s'appuie sur l'Economie Urbaine et la Nouvelle Economie Géographique en vue de modéliser sur plusieurs échelles spatiales le développement économique de régions urbanisées en interaction.Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous décrivons les données et calibrons le modèle en utilisant, pour certains paramètres, des techniques d'économétrie spatiale. Nous proposons notamment une méthode pour spécifier la matrice de poids spatial, laquelle méthode est opérationnalisée en utilisant un outil numérique développé à ces fins, PyOKNN, indépendant de GEMSE. Appliqué au Grand Paris, l'outil identifie de façon tangible des éléments clés de sa structure spatiale, et génère pour les paramètres étudiés des valeurs similaires à celles de la littérature.Dans le troisième chapitre, nous appliquons le modèle à la France et aux Etats-Unis. Nous y analysons le scénario de référence, puis les impacts de deux politiques de transport. La première mesure – la baisse des limitation de vitesse des véhicules privés – stimule l'activité économique de manière pro-environnementale en réduisant le PIB dans un premier temps, mais en lui permettant ensuite d'atteindre des niveaux plus élevés, aboutissant à un jeu à somme positive. L'autre mesure simule la mise en place d'une taxe CO2 pour les véhicules privés dont les recettes servent à financer l'augmentation des vitesses des transports publics. Il en résulte qu'un prix de 100€ par tonne de CO2eq n'a qu'un faible effet incitatif car ne représente presque rien par kilomètre-voyageur. Ces deux mesures, le changement de norme ou le recyclage de la taxe, poussent à l'utilisation de modes de transport moins couteux et moins polluants qui stimule une croissance à plus faible intensité carbone.Dans l'ensemble, ces conclusions plaident en faveur de politiques qui internalisent les effets distorsifs, e.g. les changements dans les habitudes de mobilité, la réorientation des demandes, les déséquilibres du marché du travail via les délocalisations des personnes et des changements induits en matière d'économies d'échelle externes. Les résultats ne sont dans leur ampleur que peu généralisables dans l'espace et montrent la nécessité de considérer les spécificités locales et le cadre dans lequel elles s'insèrent en terme d'interactions / The creation of the C40 Cities Climate Leadership group (C40) in 2005 is a noteworthy example that the urban scale is considered as a major leeway to mitigate CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, the adequacy between this recent awareness and the number of modeling tools capable of quantifying this leeway in a spatially explicit integrated way is still missing. This thesis aims at bridging this gap. The outcome consists of a model that incorporates general equilibrium theory with an explicit representation of space at multiple scales. The model is designed as an autonomous numerical entity connectable to any pre-existing modeling architecture. This thesis hinges around three chapters, i.e. the presentation of the model, the calibration of the model and its application to France and the USA.In the first chapter, we describe our so-called GEMSE model whose aim is to investigate the interplays between aggregate and local dimensions of economic activity while quantifying GHG emissions associated to mobility. The model is based on Urban Economics and the New Economic Geography to model on multiple spatial scales the economic development of urban areas in interaction.In the second chapter, we describe the data and calibrate the model by using, for some parameters, spatial econometric techniques. Notably, we propose a new method to specify the spatial weight matrix, operationalized by using a numerical tool developed on purpose, namely PyOKNN, independent of GEMSE. Applied to Greater Paris, the tool identifies in a tangible way some key elements of its spatial structure, and yields values for the parameters under study that are similar to those of the literature.In the third chapter, we run simulations of our model for both France and the USA. We analyze the baseline case and the impacts of two transport policies on several relevant dimensions for the long-term development of urban areas. The first measure – the decrease in private vehicle speed limitation – stimulates economic activity in a pro-environmental fashion by contracting GDP in a first phase but then allowing it to reach higher levels, resulting in a positive sum game. The second measure is the implementation of a CO2 tax to private vehicles whose collected revenues are used to finance an increase in public transport speeds. The main policy insight is that setting a price of 100€ per tonne of CO2eq represents virtually nothing once converted per commuter-kilometer and deters only marginally the use of cars. These two measures, the change in speed limitation or the recycling of the tax, encourage the use of cheaper and less polluting modes of transport, which induces a low-carbon growth.Overall, these conclusions call for policy designs that internalize distortive effects, e.g. changes in mobility habits, the reorientation of demands, unbalances in labor markets via people’s relocations and firms’ improvements in terms of economies of scale. The results can rarely be generalized in terms of magnitude from one region to another, which shows the necessity to consider local specificities as well as the framework within which they interact

Neste trabalho será feito um modelo espaço-temporal contínuo para preços de imóveis na cidade de São Paulo estimado através de métodos Bayesianos. Faremos uma decomposição da série em tendência e ciclo além de incorporar um conjunto de variáveis explicativas e efeitos aleatórios espaciais projetados no contínuo. Este modelo introduz um novo método para analisar a formação dos preços dos lançamentos imobiliários. Consideramos em nosso modelo hedônico, além das características intrínsecas, também as características da vizinhança e o ambiente econômico. Com este modelo, conseguimos observar os preços de equilíbrio para as respectivas localizações e uma interpretação mais clara da dinâmica de preços dos imóveis entre janeiro de 2000 e dezembro de 2013 para a cidade de São Paulo. / In this work will be made a continuous spatial-temporal model for real estate prices in the city of São Paulo estimated using Bayesian methods. We will decompose the series into a trend and cycle, and incorporate a set of explanatory variables and random spatial effects projected into the continuum. This model introduces a new method to analyze the price formation of real estate launches. We consider in our hedonic model, besides the intrinsic characteristics, also the characteristics of the neighborhood and the economic environment. With this model, we were able to observe the equilibrium prices for the respective locations and a clearer interpretation of the dynamics of real estate prices between January 2000 and December 2013 for the city of São Paulo.

O deslocamento forçado na Colômbia entendido como as migrações de pessoas dentro das fronteiras do país geradas ou forçadas pelas ações de violência dos grupos armados colombianos, posiciona hoje o país como o segundo no mundo com o maior numero de pessoas deslocadas forçosamente depois da Síria -segundo o relatório do Centro de Monitoramento do Deslocamento Interno (IDMC, na sigla em inglês) (2015). Desde 1985 a 1º de agosto de 2016, 7.844.527 pessoas têm sido deslocadas no país segundo o Governo da Colômbia, quase 15% da população total na atualidade. Nesta pesquisa se analisa a partir de uma perspectiva espacial o deslocamento forçado na Colômbia analisando através do mapa as relações entre conflitos sociais e espaço geográfico. São representadas e modelizadas as características e dinâmicas do fenômeno ao longo do tempo a partir de diferentes técnicas do mapeamento e da modelização gráfica. Paralelamente, é desenvolvido um estudo da evolução espaço-tempo do fenômeno social utilizando econometria espacial para estabelecer as correlações espaciais entre deslocamento e conflito armado, a partir de uma abordagem estatística. E num terceiro componente desta pesquisa, se desenvolve uma análise da política pública do Governo da Colômbia que responde às vítimas da violência no marco do conflito armado, incorporando como ferramenta de análise a cartografia produzida nesta pesquisa. Como parte dos resultados se constata que o deslocamento forçado é um fenômeno dinâmico que não se distribui aleatoriamente no espaço e pelo contrario apresenta concentração espacial. A cartografia mostra que o deslocamento não tem tido o mesmo comportamento ao longo dos anos, as migrações de pessoas têm diminuído no norte do país incrementando o volume no oriente e pacífico sul, aproximadamente a partir de 2008 quando este conduta se acentua. Da mesma forma se evidencia que os principais destinos da população deslocada são os polos econômicos e populacionais do país, onde geralmente a oferta de programas de atenção e reparação a vítimas é maior. / Forced displacement in Colombia, understood as the migrations of people within the borders of the country generated or forced by the violent actions of the Colombian armed groups, making it the country with the second highest number of internally displaced people in the world after Syria - according to the report from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) (2015). Since 1985 to August 1st 2016, 7.844.527 persons have been displaced in the country according the Government of Colombia (GoC), almost 12 percent of the current Colombia\'s population. In this study is analyzed the internal displacement in Colombia using a spatial perspective, where through the map is analyzed the relations between social conflicts and geographic space. The characteristics and dynamics of the phenomenon are represented and modeled over time from different techniques of mapping and graphic modeling. In parallel, is developed a study of the space-time evolution of the social phenomenon using spatial econometrics to establish the spatial correlations between displacement and armed conflict, from a statistical approach. And in a third component of this research, is developed an analysis of the public policy of the Government of Colombia for attention of the violence\'s victims within the framework of the armed conflict, incorporating as tool of analysis the cartography produced in this research. As part of the results it is verified that the forced displacement is a dynamic phenomenon that is not distributed randomly in space and on the contrary presents a spatial concentration. The cartography shows that the displacement has not had the same behavior over the years; the migrations of people have diminished in the north of the country, increasing the volume in the east and pacific south, approximately from 2008 when this trend is accentuated. In the same way, it is evident that the main destinations of the displaced population are the economic centers and main cities of the country, where the offer of programs of attention and reparation to victims is greater.

Este trabalho investiga o efeito do saneamento sobre educação, ou seja, as consequências educacionais das crianças que apresentam estado de saúde debilitado por terem contraído Doenças Relacionadas ao Saneamento Ambiental Inadequado (DRSAI). Nesse sentido, condições de infraestrutura dos domicílios, expressas pela variável de acesso a saneamento básico, por impactar a saúde dos indivíduos, é mais um dos determinantes dos indicadores educacionais. A partir de dados municipais e distritais, o efeito do saneamento sobre educação foi obtido em duas etapas. Na primeira, utilizou-se dados por município do Censo Demográfico (IBGE), Censo Escolar (INEP), Sistema Nacional de Informações Sobre Saneamento (SNIS), entre outros, para anos 2000 e 2010, com o objetivo de avaliar o efeito do saneamento sobre educação. Na segunda etapa, verificou-se a hipótese que dá suporte ao efeito da etapa anterior: o efeito do saneamento sobre a saúde. Essa investigação foi realizada por meio de dados por distrito construídos a partir do Censo Demográfico do Universo por setor censitário (IBGE), Cadastro Nacional de Endereços para Fins Estatísticos (CNEFE, 2011), Diretório Nacional de Endereços (DNE, 2015) e Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde (DATASUS, 2010). Ambas etapas fizeram uso de econometria espacial e não-espacial para estimação dos dois efeitos. Os resultados da primeira etapa indicam que o efeito do aumento de uma unidade percentual no acesso a saneamento está associado a um aumento de 0,11 pontos percentuais na taxa de frequência escolar, a uma queda de 0,31 pontos percentuais na taxa de distorção idade-série e a também uma queda de 0,12 pontos percentuais na taxa de abandono escolar. Os resultados da segunda etapa indicam que, em geral, o acesso aos serviços de saneamento inadequados causa impacto positivo na taxa de incidência de internações por DRSAI (por mil habitantes), a variável de saúde considerada nesse estudo. Para a população de todas as idades, o impacto total médio do aumento de 1% na parcela de domicílios servidos por água da chuva armazenada em cisterna ou caixa de cimento é 0,217 casos por mil habitantes. Quando se considera a porcentagem dos domicílios que tem banheiro conectado a uma fossa rudimentar, esse impacto é 0,035 casos por 1000 habitantes. Por outro lado, no que diz respeito à variável adequada de saneamento, o impacto total médio de 1% na porcentagem de domicílios particulares permanentes conectados à rede de distribuição de água e que, além disso, na quadra onde estão localizados é inexistente condições de esgoto a céu aberto é -0,166 casos por mil habitantes. A variável de maior impacto total médio refere-se à porcentagem de domicílios que não tem banheiro e, além disso, possuem presença de esgoto a céu aberto em suas condições de entorno. O aumento em uma unidade percentual nessa variável gera aumento de 3,281 na taxa de incidência de internações por DRSAI. Outro resultado desse estudo é que a população mais jovem é a mais atingida pelo acesso a condições inadequadas dos serviços de saneamento básico tanto em relação à saúde quanto à educação. Por fim, a recomendação de política pública apontou que, se fossem implementadas políticas de mitigação das condições inapropriadas de saneamento, iniciando por diminuir em um por cento a porcentagem de domicílios que não têm banheiro e estão expostos a condições de esgoto a céu aberto o setor público da saúde economizaria recursos num valor correspondente a 4,4% do gasto federal total investido por ano em saneamento. Dessa forma, essa política pode ser uma estratégia para acelerar as metas de universalização do acesso aos serviços de saneamento básico no Brasil. / This dissertation studies the effect of sanitation on education, in other words, the educational consequences for children whose health has been affected by Diseases Related to Inadequate Environmental Sanitation (DRIES). In this sense, infrastructure conditions of dwellings, expressed by the variable of access to basic sanitation, for impacting the health of individuals, is one of the determinants of educational indicators. The effect of sanitation on education was obtained in two steps, from municipality and district level data. At the first step, we applied data at municipality level, from the Population Census (IBGE), the School Census (INEP), the National Information System on Sanitation (SNIS), among others, for the years 2000 and 2010, with the goal of evaluating the effect of sanitation on education. At the second step, we analyzed the hypothesis that supports the effect of the previous step: the effect of sanitation on health. This analysis was conducted applying data at district level, which was constructed from the results from the universe of the Population Census (IBGE) by census tract, the National Register of Addresses for Statistical Purposes (CNEFE, 2011), the National Address Directory (DNE, 2015) and the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (DATASUS, 2010). Both steps made use of spatial and non-spatial econometrics techniques for estimating the two effects. The results of the first step indicate that the effect of one percentage increase in access to sanitation is associated with an increase of 0.11 percentage points in school attendance rate, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points in age-grade distortion rate, and also a decrease of 0.12 percentage points in the school dropout rate. The results of the second step indicate that, in general, access to inadequate sanitation services has a positive impact on the incidence of hospitalizations because of DRIES (per thousand inhabitants), the health variable considered in this study. For the population of all ages, the average total impact of a 1% increase in the share of dwellings served by rain water (stored in cisterns or cement tanks) is 0.217 cases per thousand inhabitants. Considering the percentage of dwellings with toilets connected to rudimentary cesspools, this impact is 0.035 cases per thousand inhabitants. On the other hand, with regard to the appropriate sanitation variable, the average total impact of 1% increase in the share of permanent dwellings connected to the water distribution network and whose block does not present open sewage conditions is -0.166 cases per thousand inhabitants. The variable with highest average total impact refers to the percentage of dwellings that have no toilet and, moreover, have the presence of open sewage in their surrounding conditions. The increase in a percentage unit in this variable generates an increase of 3.281 in the rate of incidence of hospitalizations because of DRIES. Another result of this study is that the younger population is the most affected by the poor conditions of access to basic sanitation services, both in terms of health on education. Finally, the public policy recommendations pointed out that, if the policies for mitigating inadequate sanitation conditions were implemented, starting with a one percentage decrease in the share of dwellings that do not have toilets and are exposed to open sewage, the health sector would save an amount corresponding to 4.4% of total federal spending invested annually in sanitation. Therefore, this policy can be a strategy to accelerate the targets for universal access to basic sanitation services in Brazil

Cette thèse étudie les déterminants de l’efficacité de la politique budgétaire, et en analyse les modalités de mise en oeuvre. Le premier chapitre compare la valeur du multiplicateur budgétaire dans les économies émergentes (EMEs)et dans les avancées (AEs). Le multiplicateur est plus faible dans les EMEs que dans les AEs, et si les déterminants du multiplicateur y sont similaires, leur impact et leur hiérarchisation y sont différents. Dans les EMEs, l’amélioration de l’efficacité de la politique budgétaire semble devoir passer par des changements structurels relatifs aux institutions.D’après le chapitre 2, le multiplicateur décroit avec la part de la dette des firmes libellée en monnaie étrangère qui se trouve être particulièrement élevée dans les EMEs. Des mesures limitant les prêts en monnaie étrangère et favorisant le développement du système financier local devraient permettre de recouvrer l’efficacité de la politique budgétaire. Le troisième chapitre montre que les gouvernements européens interagissent entre eux pour fixer leurs politiques budgétaires: ils s’imitent avec un an de délai. Ces interactions sont dues à de la concurrence par comparaison. L’objectif électoral des politiques budgétaires peut en réduire l’efficacité. Aussi, davantage d’institutions seraient nécessaires pour garantir une certaine coordination budgétaire en Europe. Les interactions décalées dans le temps témoignent d’un phénomène de leader-suiveur en Europe, et le chapitre 4 montre que l’Allemagne occupe la place de leader. L’Allemagne pourrait donc amorcer une certaine coordination budgétaire en Europe. / This thesis analyzes the determinants of fiscal policy efficiency and the way fiscal policy is implemented. The first chapter compares the fiscal multiplier in emerging market economies (EMEs) with the one in advanced economies(AEs): the fiscal multiplier is smaller in EMEs than in AEs. While the determinants of fiscal multipliers are similar in both groups, their weights differ across groups. To improve fiscal policy efficiency EMEs seem to need structural policies to better their institutional quality. Chapter 2 empirically and theoretically shows that the fiscal multiplier decreases with the share of firms’ indebtedness that is denominated in foreign currency. EMEs have large debt denominated in foreign currency. Fostering the use of local currency to finance activity, for example via quotas on foreign loans, shall allow EMEs to improve the efficiency of their fiscal policies. Chapter 3 shows that European governments mimic each other in the implementation of fiscal policy with one year delay. These interactions are due to yardstick competition.The electoral objectives of governments may reduce fiscal policy efficiency and the incentive of governments to fiscally cooperate. If we believe in fiscal cooperation as a force to enhance fiscal policy efficiency, more institutions should be set up to foster cooperation in Europe. Moreover, the delayed interactions found are consistent with a leader-follower process, and Chapter 4 shows that Germany is the leader: European countries follow Germany in the implementation of fiscal policy. Hence, the push for fiscal cooperation could come from Germany.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-23T14:00:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao de Andre Luiz Greve Pereira - Parte 1.pdf: 1996445 bytes, checksum: 416870e5be10ab8287e896d17657fdcb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-06-04 / Esta dissertação investiga os determinantes da criminalidade nos municípios do Estado do Espírito Santo e nos bairros de Vitória. Este trabalho se insere na literatura econômica que busca identificar o impacto marginal de variáveis econômicas, sociais e demográficas assim como o impacto marginal de crimes aparentemente sem vítimas (crimes de drogas e armas) em crimes com vítimas claramente identificáveis (homicídios, crimes contra a pessoa e crimes contra o patrimônio). A dissertação utilizou as ocorrências criminais registradas na Secretaria de Segurança Pública e Defesas Social do Espírito Santo (SESP), entre elas o local de residência dos Envolvidos com a Criminalidade em nível de bairro. Esta variável é inédita em estudos econômicos no Brasil. Os resultados do trabalho ressaltam a importância do efeito transbordamento (spillover effects) da criminalidade sob dois canais: através da influência dos crimes aparentemente sem vítimas (drogas e armas) nos crimes patrimoniais e pessoais, pois eles tiveram um poder explicativo significativamente maior do que as variáveis sociais, econômicas e demográficas; e através da autocorrelação espacial positiva dos crimes entre os municípios do ES. As políticas públicas de segurança são discutidas e analisadas apartir destes resultados e das referências consultadas / This dissertation investigates the determinants of crime in cities in the state of Espírito Santo and in the districts of its capital, Vitória. This study is based in the economic literature that seeks to identify the marginal impact of economic, social and demographic variables, as well as the marginal impact of apparently victimless crimes (drugs and guns crimes) on crimes with identifiable victims (homicide, offence against the person and crimes against property). The data used in this paper were criminal occurrences recorded by the Espírito Santo Department of Public Safety and Social Defense (SESP-ES), including criminals residences sorted at neighborhood level. This variable has no precedents in Brazilian economic studies. The results of the study emphasize the importance of the spillover effect in crime through two different channels: the influence of apparently victimless crimes in crimes against property and offences against the person, which had a greater explanatory power than social, economic and demographic variables; and a positive spatial correlation of crimes between cities. The public security policies are discussed and analyzed based on these results and the references consulted

This thesis consists of three papers on econometric modeling of spatial dependence. The awareness of interactions between actors is fundamental for understanding property markets as well as the growth of regions. In both cases, neighbors and neighboring markets may stimulate or hamper growth of values. From a modeling point of view, these interdependencies calls for spatial econometric models. In the thesis we introduce such methods in the analysis of regional property markets as well as in a comparative regional growth analysis. In the first paper, we estimate hedonic prices in the market for co-operative flats in the city of Umeå, Sweden, during 1998 and 1999. Structural, neighborhood, and accessibility characteristics are used as attributes in the hedonic price function. Important attributes were the rent, floor space, age, and population density. Two attractive nodes, although with different characteristics, were found. Thus there are signs supporting the view that Umeå has developed into a multi-nodal structure for property values. SAR-GM estimation was used due to signs of spatial error dependence. In the second paper, hedonic prices for single-family homes in two Swedish counties are estimated for two years. Parameter estimates are compared and changes in space and time analyzed. Spatial lag dependence is found to influence the results. Hence, four independent variables are lagged with a spatial weights matrix. Additional spatial error dependence is treated by SAR-GM estimation. Structural, neighborhood, and accessibility characteristics are used as attributes. The regional price pattern and its changes over time, is illustrated and identified with GIS maps. Proximity to the two county capitals, as well as the other municipality centers, influence property prices positively. This is also noticable over time, where values have risen for homes located near major population centers and those which have water provided by the municipality. Values are in addition largely a function of the quality of each home. The third paper examines the provincial pattern of growth in China during the period 1985-2000, testing the hypothesis that provinces with similar growth rates are more spatially clustered than would be expected by chance. The provincial economic growth is explained by the distribution of industrial enterprises, foreign direct investment, infrastructure, and governmental preferential policies. The neoclassical hypothesis of convergence is also tested. Indications of unconditional convergence does occur during the periods 1985-2000 and 1985-1990. In addition, conditional convergence is found during the sub-period 1990-1995. Evidence of spatial dependence between adjacent provinces has also been established, and in the econometric part, solved by a spatial lag, or alternatively a spatial error term, in the growth equation.

In this paper, we test one of the fundamental assumptions in the tax competition literature, namely, that a country's taxable income depends on the tax policies pursued in the domestic and in neighbouring countries. Based on a panel of annual data of 14 western European countries spanning the period 1982 to 2004, we show that the common trend in falling corporate income tax (CIT) rates can in part be explained by the existence of fiscal externalities in the form of international resource flows. Our results confirm the presumption put forward in recent empirical tax reaction function studies, that interdependent tax setting behaviour is evidence of tax competition. However, taxable corporate income is shown to react inelastically to domestic and to foreign tax rates. Thus, the observed rise in CIT revenues in Europe between 1982 and 2004 cannot be explained by the trend in falling CIT rates. Moreover, we find that large countries' tax bases are more responsive to neighbouring countries' tax policies, which is in contrast to the classic asymmetric tax competition literature. (author´s abstract) / Series: Discussion Papers SFB International Tax Coordination

In this paper, we test one of the fundamental assumptions in the tax competition literature, namely, that a country's taxable income depends on the tax policies pursued in the domestic and in neighbouring countries. Based on a panel of annual data of 14 western European countries spanning the period 1982 to 2004, we show that the common trend in falling corporate income tax (CIT) rates can in part be explained by the existence of fiscal externalities in the form of international resource flows. Our results confirm the presumption put forward in recent empirical tax reaction function studies, that interdependent tax setting behaviour is evidence of tax competition. However, taxable corporate income is shown to react inelastically to domestic and to foreign tax rates. Thus, the observed rise in CIT revenues in Europe between 1982 and 2004 cannot be explained by the trend in falling CIT rates. Moreover, we find that large countries' tax bases are more responsive to neighbouring countries' tax policies, which is in contrast to the classic asymmetric tax competition literature. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series