My dissertation consists of three chapters which explores various aspects of executive incentives. In the first chapter, I examine the relation between executive equity pay and stock returns. By compensating CEOs and CFOs differently, shareholders can create incentive conflicts between the firms’ top two managers that potentially affects shareholder wealth. On the one hand, incentive conflict potentially benefits shareholders by improving information exchange and establishing checks and balances in decisions made jointly by the CEO and CFO but alternatively, can harm shareholders by increasing risk through impeding the decision-making processes. I examine the relation between CEO-CFO incentive conflict and stock returns. The analysis indicates that an investor who routinely buy firms with the least incentive conflict and shorts firms with the greatest incentive conflict between CEO and CFOs will outperform the market by 475 basis points per year. I investigate whether risk, firm performance, or market inefficiency explain the excess returns and provide evidence that shareholders demand higher returns for bearing risk associated with CEO-CFO incentive similarities. Next, I explore the impact of executive incentives on bondholder wealth through looking at bond yields. Firms compensate managers to maximize shareholder value, yet these same incentives affect bondholder risk. I investigate the relation between executive equity pay and the cost of debt. My findings indicate a “u-shaped” relation between bond yields and equity pay. These results are consistent with the notion that bondholders prefer a moderate amount of executive equity pay and above or below that level, bondholders increase yields to protect their interests. Instrumenting equity pay using CEO heritage, I find support for a curvilinear relation. These findings suggest that moderate levels of equity pay mitigate the agency costs between firm shareholders and bondholders. Finally, I study the affect of board gender diversity on CEO and director compensation. Females occupy only about 12% of director positions on corporate boards. I find that boards with more female’s onboard tend to give CEOs larger fractions of equity in their compensation packages while incentivizing directors with lower fractions of equity pay. This evidence is consistent with the notion that female board members are superior monitors yet also possess greater risk-aversion than male board members. / Business Administration/Finance

Yes / Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of insider trading on subsequent stock returns in the UK, with a specific focus on the impact of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 on the relation between CEO and CFO stock purchases and returns. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical analysis uses 10,230 purchases executed in 679 UK firms by 1,477 directors during the period from 2000 to 2010. Subsequent market-adjusted stock returns are regressed on a set of firm-specific accounting, market and corporate governance variables as well as the characteristics of CEOs and CFOs. Additionally, the analysis distinguishes between the opportunistic and routine trades. Findings – The findings reveal that the position of the trading director and the nature of their trades are important in determining the impact on returns of insider trades. In particular, CEO purchases are on the whole more informative than CFO purchases and opportunistic purchases. The trades in the post-crisis period have a greater impact on subsequent stock returns. Research limitations/implications – The empirical analysis is limited to the trades made by two executives. Future research should consider inside trades by all directors and distinguish between executive and non-executive directors. Also, a behavioral measure should be developed to test if the financial crisis affected the trading behavior of directors and whether directors use insider trading strategically to signal information to the market. Practical implications – The impact of directors’ dealings on stock returns is not homogeneous. Financial analysts and investors should pay more attention to different types of trades and the identity of trading director. Originality/value – This paper, to the authors’ knowledge, provides the first attempt that combines in the same framework the identity and personal attributes of trading executive directors, firm-level corporate governance features, the nature of purchase transactions and the trading period characteristics. Furthermore the empirical analysis is carried out during a period that also covers the recent global financial crisis period and its immediate aftermath.

Yes / A key prediction of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is that idiosyncratic risk is not priced by investors because in the absence of frictions it can be fully diversified away. In the presence of constraints on diversification, refinements of the CAPM conclude that the part of idiosyncratic risk that is not diversified should be priced. Recent empirical studies yielded mixed evidence with some studies finding positive correlation between idiosyncratic risk and stock returns, while other studies reported none or even negative correlation. We revisit the problem whether idiosyncratic risk is priced by the stock market and what are the probable causes for the mixed evidence produced by other studies, using monthly data for the US market covering the period from 1980 until 2013. We find that one-period volatility forecasts are not significantly correlated with stock returns. The mean-reverting unconditional volatility, however, is a robust predictor of returns. Consistent with economic theory, the size of the premium depends on the degree of 'knowledge' of the security among market participants. In particular, the premium for Nasdaq-traded stocks is higher than that for NYSE and Amex stocks. We also find stronger correlation between idiosyncratic risk and returns during recessions, which may suggest interaction of risk premium with decreased risk tolerance or other investment considerations like flight to safety or liquidity requirements. The difference between the correlations of the idiosyncratic volatility estimators used by other studies and the true risk metric the mean-reverting volatility is the likely cause for the mixed evidence produced by other studies. Our results are robust with respect to liquidity, momentum, return reversals, unadjusted price, liquidity, credit quality, omitted factors, and hold at daily frequency. / National Research Foundation of Korea (2016S1A2A2912265)

Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is the cornerstone in Financial Economics. It is a basic requirement in stock valuation, evaluation of portfolio performance and asset allocation. For the last decades, several studies have attempted to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic drivers of ERP. In this work, I empirically investigate the macroeconomic determinants of UK ERP. For this I parsimoniously cover a large body of literature stemming from ERP puzzle. I motivate the empirical investigation based on three mutually exclusive theoretical lenses. The thesis is organised in the journal paper format. In the first paper I review the literature on ERP over the past twenty-eight years. In particular, the aim of the paper is three fold. First, to review the methods and techniques, proposed by the literature to estimate ERP. Second, to review the literature that attempts to resolve the ERP puzzle, first coined by Mehra and Prescott (1985), by exploring five different types of modifications to the standard utility framework. And third, to review the literature that investigates and develops relationship between ERP and various macroeconomic and market factors in domestic and international context. I find that ERP puzzle is still a puzzle, within the universe of standard power utility framework and Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model, a conclusion which is in line with Kocherlakota (1996) and Mehra (2003). In the second paper, I investigate the impact of structural monetary policy shocks on ex-post ERP. More specifically, the aim of this paper is to investigate the whether the response of UK ERP is different to the structural monetary policy shocks, before and after the implementation of Quantitative Easing in the UK. I find that monetary policy shocks negatively affect the ERP at aggregate level. However, at the sectoral level, the magnitude of the response is heterogeneous. Further, monetary policy shocks have a significant negative (positive) impact on the ERP before (after) the implementation of Quantitative Easing (QE). The empirical evidence provided in the paper sheds light on the equity market’s asymmetric response to the Bank of England’s monetary policy before and after the monetary stimulus. In the third paper I examine the impact of aggregate and disaggregate consumption shocks on the ex-post ERP of various FTSE indices and the 25 Fama-French style value-weighted portfolios, constructed on the basis of size and book-to-market characteristics. I extract consumption shocks using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) and investigate its time-series and cross-sectional implications for ERP in the UK. These structural consumption shocks represent deviation of agent’s actual consumption path from its theoretically expected path. Aggregate consumption shocks seem to explain significant time variation in the ERP. At disaggregated level, when the actual consumption is less than expected, the ERP rises. Durable and Semi-durable consumption shocks have a greater impact on the ERP than non-durable consumption shocks. In the fourth and final paper I investigate the impact of short and long term market implied volatility on the UK ERP. I also examine the pricing implications of innovations to short and long term implied market volatility in the cross-section of stocks returns. I find that both the short and the long term implied volatility have significant negative impact on the aggregate ERP, while at sectoral level the impact is heterogeneous. I find both short and long term volatility is priced negatively indicating that (i) investors care both short and long term market implied volatility (ii) investors are ready to pay for insurance against these risks.

The model uncertainty is a phenomenon where general consensus about the form of specific model is unclear. Stock returns perfectly meet this condition, as extensive literature offers diverse methods and potential drivers without a clear winner among them. Relatively recently, averaging techniques emerged as a possible solution to such scenarios. The two major averaging branches, Bayesian (BMA) and Frequentist (FMA) averaging, naturally deal with uncertainty by averaging over all model candidates rather than choosing the "best" one of them. We focus on FMA and apply this method to our data from U.S. market about S&P 500 index, that I help to explain with the set of eleven explanatory variables chosen in accordance with related literature. To preserve a real-world applicability, I use rolling window scheme to regularly update data in the fitting model for quarterly based re- estimation. Consequently, predictions are obtained with the use of most recent data. Firstly, we find out that simple historical average model can be beaten with a standard model selection approach based on AIC value, with variables as Dividend Yield, Earnings ratio, and Book-to-Market value proving consistently as most significant across quarterly models. With FMA techniques, I was not able to consistently beat the benchmark...

Trenden med stort fokus på utdelning bland investerare håller i sig år 2019 och storbolagen förväntas betala ut över 250 miljarder svenska kronor. Bolag undviker att sänka sin utdelning, oavsett om det går bra eller dåligt, för att inte ge signaler om negativa framtidsutsikter. Den aktuella studien undersöker om den svenska aktiemarknaden, i enlighet med signaleringsteorin, följer de signaler som bolagsledningen sänder ut genom sin utdelning. Studien är en eventstudie och har en kvantitativ ansats med ett eventfönster på 11 dagar och en estimeringsperiod på 120 dagar. Urvalet består av 89 bolag från Stockholmsbörsens Large Cap lista. Resultatet visar en signifikant abnormal avkastning vid sänkt utdelning i linje med signaleringsteorin. Vid oförändrad eller höjd utdelning återfinns ingen signifikant abnormal avkastning och därmed finns inget stöd för signaleringsteorin. Slutsatsen är att den svenska aktiemarknaden följer signaleringsteorin vid sänkt utdelning men inte vid höjd. / The trend with a strong focus on dividends among investors is continuing in 2019 and the major companies are expected to pay out over SEK 250 billion. Companies avoid reducing their dividends in order to prevent signals of negative prospects. The current study investigates whether the Swedish stock market, in accordance with the signaling theory, follows the signals that corporate management sends out through its dividend. This study is an event study and has a quantitative approach with an event window of 11 days and an estimation period of 120 days. The sample consists of 89 companies from the Stockholm Stock Exchange's Large Cap list. The result show a significant abnormal return on reduced dividends in line with the signaling theory. With unchanged or increased dividends there is no significant abnormal return, hence there is no support for the signaling theory. The conclusion is that the Swedish stock market follows the signaling theory when the dividend is reduced, but not when increased.

The aim of this work is to examine the impact of financial development, financial constraints and capital control on stocks market returns. The research looks into stock returns of emerging and developed economies over the period of 2004-2016 by using data, both by firm-level and country level, from 88 developed and emerging countries. Furthermore, the KZ, WW and SA indexes were used to classified as being financially constrained and financially unconstrained and the level of capital control of each group of countries is interacted with financial constraints. We aim to determine the relationship between the variables used as the measurement (depth, access, efficiency and stability) of financial development of a country, the financial constraint and capital control and their relationship to the stock market returns. Previous research focusing on stock market returns have dealt with different influences affecting the stock returns; however, the literature examining the influence of capital control on stock return is scarce. Our results suggest that the extended Fama and French three-factor model including macroeconomic and financial development variables and considering the presence of financial constraints help in the understanding in their impact on asset pricing for emerging and developed countries alike. / Este trabalho tem por objetivo examinar o impacto do desenvolvimento financeiro, das restrições financeiras e do controle de capital no retorno das ações. A pesquisa analisa o retorno das ações dos países emergentes e desenvolvidos durante o período de 2004-2016 através de uma base de dados de 88 países, emergentes e desenvolvidos, com dados tanto ao nível da firma como ao nível do país. Além disso, os índices KZ, WW e SA são usados para classificar as empresas como restritas e não restritas financeiramente, e utiliza-se também as interações do nível de controle de capital com as restrições financeiras. O objetivo é determinar a relação entre as variáveis de desenvolvimento financeiro do país (profundidade, acesso, eficiência e estabilidade), as restrições financeiras e o controle de capital com o retorno de mercado das ações. As pesquisas anteriores acerca do tema retorno lidaram com diferentes fatores que afetam o retorno de ações; entretanto, estudos envolvendo a influência do controle de capital no retorno de ações ainda são escassos Nossos resultados sugerem que um modelo composto coletivamente pelo modelo de três fatores de Fama e French e variáveis macroeconômicas e de desenvolvimento financeiro, considerando ao mesmo tempo restrições financeiras, ajuda na melhor compreensão do impacto de ditas variáveis no preço de ativos em países emergentes e desenvolvidos.

Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2017-03-17T11:54:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Berenice Righi Damke.pdf: 935647 bytes, checksum: c893ff5f8032fb26f81b44665b054b5c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-17T11:54:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Berenice Righi Damke.pdf: 935647 bytes, checksum: c893ff5f8032fb26f81b44665b054b5c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-08 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / This study searches for internal and external factors that influence common stocks in the Brazilian energetic sector, in terms of excess return above the local risk free interest rate (CDI) and BM&FBovespa Stock Exchange Index (Ibovespa). It focus on understanding the Government influence when it is the main shareholder. The energetic sector was target on this study due to its high relevance for the economic growth. In Brazil, it is highly regulated and there is important participation of the local Government in the energetic sector’s companies. It is main shareholder in 35.5% of 45 companies of this sample. Where it was included 34 companies of energy generation and distribution and 11 companies of oil and gas (including Petrobras, which is a Brazilian icon), listed at BM&FBovespa, with liquid common stock between 2010 and 2016. It was analyzed the Government participation as the majority shareholder, as a proxy of low Corporate Governance, confirming this hypothesis. It was also shown that a increase in leverage, in terms of endebtness in its capital structure, brings negative impact in the stock excess returns. It was included several variables related to financial and accounting of the energetic sector companies, in addition to variables relative to the Brazilian economy. Many of them showed a low explicative power. However, GDP, foreign exchange rate BRL/USD, interest rates and inflation was proven to be significant, in line with prior studies about what influences common stock excess of return, in different sectors and countries, besides Brazil / Este estudo busca compreender quais fatores internos e externos determinam o excesso de retorno, acima do CDI e do Ibovespa, das ações ordinárias de empresas brasileiras do setor energético. Tem por foco compreender a influência do Governo sobre o retorno das ações, quando este tem participação majoritária no capital social. Escolheu-se o setor energético por ser um setor chave para o crescimento da economia, ainda bastante regulado, e com participação relevante do Governo como principal acionista, estando presente em 35,5% das 45 empresas da amostra. Incluem-se aqui 34 empresas de geração e distribuição de energia elétrica e 11 empresas de petróleo e gás (incluindo Petrobrás), listadas na BM&FBovespa, cujas ações ordinárias possuíam liquidez entre 2010 e 2016. Testou-se a participação do Governo como principal acionista, como proxy de baixa Governança Corporativa, confirmando-se essa hipótese. Também se comprovou que o aumento do endividamento na estrutura de capital das empresas pesquisadas afeta negativamente o excesso de retorno das ações. No modelo econométrico deste trabalho foram incluídas diversas variáveis relativas a indicadores contábeis e de mercado das empresas, bem como relativas à economia brasileira e à atividade econômica. Muitas se mostraram de baixo poder explicativo. Já outras, tais como PIB, taxa de câmbio R$/USD, taxa de juros e inflação, mostraram-se relevantes e apresentaram no modelo sinais em linha com estudo anteriores relacionados ao tema, referentes ao que afeta os retornos das ações, em diferentes setores da economia e em diferentes países, além do Brasil

The emergence of capital markets in Asia and South America, the relaxation of foreign capital controls and the adoption of flexible exchange rate regimes has prompted heavy cross-border investments in recent years.  Simultaneously, volatility in these foreign exchange markets has increased, leading to increased risk following the adoption of these flexible exchange regimes.  As such, investors have become more interested in knowing what impact the volatile markets have on their investments.  This, they seek to know, through the returns on their stock investments as stock prices are said to be a representation of firm value.   This thesis uses firm size as a parameter to analyse the role of macroeconomic variables with emphasis on  exchange rate variability on stock returns using data from 67 Swedish companies listed on the Stockholm stock exchange and selected from all the three market capitalization segments (large cap, mid cap and small cap) according to the OMX index classification. We used returns from all the non-financial firms listed on the Stockholm stock exchange between the years 1997 to 2009.  Based on the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, and using multiple regression model, we sought to ascertain  if the effect of movements in the SEK/USD and SEK/Euro exchange rates are different for companies of the small, mid and large capitalizations segments of the OMX Stockholm stock exchange and which other control variables will influence these returns more than the exchange rate movements.   Using bilateral monthly exchange rates for the USD and Euro, we find that 55 out of the 67 companies are significantly exposed to exchange rate changes within all the segments.  These are almost evenly distributed relatively across all the capitalization segments though the absolute numbers may differ considerably.  We further use one-way ANOVA to find out if there are any differences in the means of the exposures of the companies in the respective segments.  Still, we find no significant difference in their means.  These therefore give little evidence to conclude that there is actually a difference in the exposure of firms in the respective capitalisation segments to exchange variations.  We also discover that apart from exchange rate variations, other macroeconomic variables also play a big role in determining the returns of the stocks of firms.

This study investigates the long-term and short-term dynamic relationships among the variables of stock returns and institutional investors' buy-sell difference in Taiwan's stock market for the sample periods from Jan., 2000 through May, 2009. Some econometrical methodologies are used in this study, such as unit test, vector autoregressive model, cointegration test, vector error correction model, impulse response function. The major empirical results are shown as follows: 1. Cointegration test For the sample periods, one long-term equilibrium relationship is found from the Johansen's cointegration test, significantly with 5% confidence level between stock year returns and the buy-sell difference for the foreign investment institutions, the domestic investment institutions, and the dealers. The long-term equilibrium relationship is Ry=1.65*QFII+4.28*FUND+35.22*DLR-1142.6. 2. VECM estimation (1)With the vector error correction model (VECM) being applied to the sample periods, the findings indicate that the changes of stock returns are not influenced among the short-term dynamic relationships by the changes of institutional investors' buy-sell difference, but only affected by one-period-lag of itself. (2) Among the short-term dynamic relationships, the changes of foreign investment institutions' buy-sell difference are affected by one-period-lag of institutional investors that positively affected by one-period-lag of the dealers, and inversely affected by one-period-lag of itself and one-period-lag of the domestic investment institutions. However, it is positively affected by one-period-lag of long-term equilibrium, which indicates foreign investment institutions follow positive feedback trading strategies. (3)The changes of the domestic investment institutions' buy-sell difference are only affected by one-period-lag of itself among the short-term dynamic relationships. (4)The changes of the dealers' buy-sell difference are positively affected among the short-term dynamic relationships by one-period-lag of the foreign investment institutions. As for the long-term relationships, it is affected by one-period-lag of long-term equilibrium, which also indicates the dealers follow positive feedback trading strategies. (5)The foreign investment institutions and the dealers have the mutual feedback relationship.