Bakgrund: Den ökade populariteten av ESG som investeringsgrund har gett upphov till en intressant diskussion kring huruvida ESG-betyg har en effekt på avkastning eller inte. En del forskning tar ståndpunkten att en hållbar profil med fokus på ESG påverkar avkastning positivt. De som associerar sig med denna ståndpunkt belyser att investerare kan influera arbete mot en hållbar framtid utan att det ska ge en negativ effekt i önskade avkastningskrav. Däremot finns en motpol i en del av forskningen som hävdar att ESG berör avkastning negativt. Därtill hävdar vissa studier att det finns en diskrepans mellan sektorer på marknaden gällande eventualiteten av ESG:s effekt på riskfyllda tillgångar. Därav är ämnet av intresse med anledning av den motstridiga forskningen angående effekten ESG-betyget har på avkastning.  Syfte: Uppsatsens syfte är att historiskt analysera ESG-betygets eventuella effekt på avkastningen för bolag noterade på OMX Stockholm Large Cap, för att utreda om ESG-betyg kan vara en drivande faktor. Studien har som delsyfte att undersöka om det råder några skillnader i hur ESG-betyget påverkar avkastning i olika sektorer. Metod: Studien har antagit en deduktiv ansats med en kvantitativ metod för att uppfylla syftet. Med grund i dessa metodval analyseras urvalet genom teoretiskt grundade variabler. Studien använder balanserad paneldata som karaktäriseras som kort panel. Resultat: Observerade resultat av rapporten understryker att ESG-betyg återger en försumbar effekt på avkastningen i samtliga regressioner. Koefficienterna för ESG-betygen är dock statistiskt icke-signifikanta. Således kan inte författarna fastställa ESG-betygets inverkan på avkastning för bolagen i urvalet. Däremot finns det tidigare forskning på området som finner liknande resultat som denna studie. / Background: The rising popularity of ESG investing has provided for an interesting deliberation whether the ratio influences stock returns or not. There are those who assert that emphasizing upon ESG yields higher stock returns for investors. Hence, reiterating that investors can contribute to a sustainable future without interfering with desired capital gains. However, there is research that indicates that the incorporation of ESG impedes potential stock returns. Furthermore, previous studies have indicated that there is a potential disparity between sectors of the market, meaning that ESG might have a varied effect. The topic is henceforth of interest due to the contradicting results regarding the effects of ESG on stock returns.  Aim: This study aims to analyze and clarify whether ESG-score is a determining factor in the return of stocks listed on OMX Stockholm Large Cap during the time period 2011-2019. The report will also investigate if there is a difference in its possible impact acrossvarious industries.  Methodology: The study has utilized a deductive and quantitative approach to effectuate the aim of the report. Furthermore, the report has used a balanced panel data with a short panel. Results: The results of the report emphasize that the ESG-score has a negligible effect on stock returns across all industries. However, the coefficients for the ESG-score are statistically insignificant, which means that no conclusion can be established regarding its effect on the selection of stocks listed on OMX Stockholm Large Cap. Nonetheless, there is previous research that supports the findings of the report.

Magisteruppsats, civilekonomprogrammet Titel: Valutafluktuationer på den svenska aktiemarknaden Bakgrund: Aktiemarknaden och växelkurserna är två avgörande komponenter i världsekonomin. Aktiemarknaden kan påverkas av förändringar i valutakurser, vilket gör det viktigt att förstå hur den fungerar, för att sedan kunna göra smarta investeringsval. I denna studie, kommer vi under en tidsperiod mellan 2012-2021, undersöka hur valutakurserna, SEK/EUR, SEK/USD och KIX-index påverkar OMXS30. Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats är att utforska sambandet mellan förändringar i den svenska växelkursen och den svenska aktiemarknaden. Metod: Denna studie har byggts på en kvantitativ metod med en deduktiv ansats, för att pröva dess syfte. Data har hämtats från Thomas Reuters Eikon Datastream och hypoteserna är framtagna för att finna lösningen på vår problemformulering. Slutsats: Denna studie visar att det finns ett samband mellan förändring i växelkurserna gemensamt och den svenska aktiemarknaden men det finns inte en specifik växelkurs som i sig självt har en signifikant påverkan på den svenska aktiemarknaden i helhet. / Master Thesis in Business Administration Title: Currency fluctuations on the swedish stock market Background: The stock market and exchange rates are two crucial components of the world economy. The stock market can be affected by changes in exchange rates, which makes it important to understand how it works, in order to then make smart investment choices. In this study, during a period of time between 2012-2021, we will examine how the exchange rates, SEK/EUR, SEK/USD and the KIX index affects OMXS30. Purpose: The purpose of this essay is to explore the connection between changes in the Swedish exchange rate and the Swedish stock market. Method: This study has been based on a quantitative method with a deductive approach, in order to test its purpose. The data has been taken from the Thomas Reuters Eikon Datastream and the hypotheses have been developed to be able to find the solution to our problem. Conclusion: This study shows that there is a significant similarity between changes in exchange rates in general and the Swedish stock market, but there is not a specific exchange rate that in itself has a significant impact on the Swedish stock market as a whole

[pt] Nesse artigo, fornecemos evidências de que as informações sobre a infraestrutura de mitigação de riscos nos Estados Unidos (EUA) durante uma exposição indireta a ciclones tropicais e a própria exposição indireta a ciclones tropicais geram anomalias nos retornos após considerar os 5 fatores FamaFrench e momentum. Formulamos duas hipóteses possíveis para explicar essas anomalias: hipótese do investidor local e hipótese do investor geral. Ambas as hipóteses assumem que os investimentos em mitigação de riscos são inferiores ao ideal. Sua diferença é baseada em como os investidores interpretam os programas de mitigação de riscos. Na hipótese do investidor local, Nós nos concentramos nas percepções dos investidores locais sobre os programas. Investimentos mais significativos nesses programas significam que mais investidores locais irão reconhecê-los e conhecer suas falhas. Por outro lado, na hipótese do investor geral, nos concentramos nas associações que os investidores gerais fazem entre o nível de investimento em mitigação de perigos e o risco de desastres. No final, damos algumas evidências da hipótese dos investidores locais, mas não podemos garantir que essa seja a única explicação possível. A questão toda depende de quanto os investidores sabem sobre os programas de mitigação de riscos. Além disso, evidenciamos que um canal de informação é o provável caminho pelo qual as anomalias são geradas. Assim, nesta dissertação, lançamos alguma luz sobre a incerteza gerada pelos desastres naturais que precificam os ativos, um tema que recebe mais atenção em um mundo em aquecimento. / [en] In this paper, we provide evidence that information about hazard mitigation infrastructure in the United States (U.S.) during an indirect exposure to tropical cyclones and the indirect exposure to tropical cyclones per se generate anomalies in returns after considering the 5 Fama-French factors and momentum. We formulate two possible hypotheses to explain these anomalies: local investor and general market hypotheses. Both hypotheses assume that hazard mitigation investments are lower than the ideal. Their difference is based on how investors interpret the hazard mitigation programs. We focus on local investors perceptions about them in the local investor hypothesis. More significant investments in these programs mean more local investors will acknowledge them and their flaws. On the other hand, we focus on general investors associations between hazard mitigation investment level and disaster risk in the general market hypothesis. In the end, we give some evidence of the local investors hypothesis, but we cannot guarantee that this is the only possible explanation. The whole point depends on how much investors know about hazard mitigation programs. Beyond that, we give evidence that an information channel is the probable path in which the anomalies are generated. Thus, in this dissertation, we shed some light on the uncertainty generated by natural disasters that prices assets, a topic that gets more attention in a warming world.

Previous scholars have viewed expenditures on ESG (environmental, social, governance) in two distinct ways. In one way, it has been viewed as wasteful if it does not directly contribute to the business. The other perspective being that by addressing ESG-issues, one can improve businesses by improving society. In recent times, ESG has become an increasingly common topic due to the increased awareness and debates regarding the environment and sustainability. The increased attention toward ESG issues has resulted in increased ESG reporting by firms. As a result, shareholders and stakeholders can address more of their concerns by knowing how ESG-friendly a firm is. With the increased attention given to ESG in recent years, its actual effects on a firm becomes increasingly interesting. The relationship between ESG and firm performance and the relationship between ESG and stock return has been studied by several researchers over the years. The different studies have come to different conclusions regarding these relationships and the relationships are still inconsistent. In this paper, the relationship between ESG-scores and firm performance, as well as ESG-scores and stock returns in Swedish large-cap firms is examined. This study aims to investigate the relationship between ESG-scores and firm performance and the relationship between ESG-scores and stock returns. Furthermore, the study measures firm performance by measuring total asset turnover, net profit margin, and operating profit margin. Stock returns are measured with the use of historical yearly stock returns. The relationships are investigated with regression analysis. This study has a quantitative approach, where secondary data between the years 2016-2020 has been extracted from the database Refinitiv Eikon. The study finds that the relationship between ESG-scores and total asset turnover is negative, meaning that increased ESG-scores result in less efficient use of assets. The relationship between ESG-score and net profit margin is insignificant, and no conclusion can be drawn from that relationship. The relationship between ESG-scores and operating profit margin is positive, meaning that customers are willing to pay more for a firm's sustainable practices. The relationship between ESG-scores and stock returns is insignificantly negative; thus, we cannot draw any conclusions regarding the relationship, but it could indicate that ESG-scores are accounted for in the stock price.

Companies have taken the initiative to be socially responsible over the years. In the past, the focus for companies has been on maximizing wealth. With the growth of corporate social responsibility (CSR), there has been many debates regarding its benefits. More companies are beginning to realize the value of being socially responsible and how critical it is to business function. This paper researches past studies on the relationship between corporate social responsibility and financial performance. This relationship is then tested using a reliable source of data on corporate social responsibility performance. This study uniquely looks at the accounting and market-based measurements of financial performance. The dataset includes most of the S&P 500 firms and covers years 2005-2014. An empirical model is constructed which includes factors that were found significant in the works of Capon, Farley, and Hoenig (1990). The relationships are tested using cross-sector/panel data time-series regressions. Results indicate that CSR and the accounting measurements of financial performance are positively related. CSR and the market-based measurements of financial performance are negatively related. This suggests that CSR positively affects a company’s profits and negatively affects future stock returns. One interpretation of this result is that socially responsible stocks have a lower required rates of return. The results indicate that since investors are more willing to invest in CSR stocks, these firms end up experiencing lower future stock returns. The results are consistent with past studies and support the hypotheses.

Att kunna förklara och förutse aktiers avkastning är av stort intresse för aktörer inom finansbranschen. Kunskap inom ämnet kan leda till mer framgångsrika investeringsstrategier och en mer träffsäker analys av ett företags värde. I syfte att bättre kunna förklara aktiers avkastning har flera olika strategier utvecklats. En av dessa modeller är CAPM, som försöker förutse aktiers avkastning genom bland annat dess risk. Modellen har fått utstå omfattande kritik, bland annat för att den exkluderar viktiga variabler och utgår från orealistiska antaganden. Andra strategier använder sig av olika nyckeltal i försök att förklara aktiers avkastning. Tidigare forskning visar att det finns variabler som bidrar till att förklara avkastning. Vad som är säkert är att ingen modell är perfekt, men vissa kan fungera bättre än andra.  Avsikten med studien är 1) att analysera CAPM:s tillförlitlighet på den svenska aktiemarknaden, och 2) analysera om nyckeltalen beta, direktavkastning, företagets storlek, P/E-tal, och skuldkvot kan förklara variationer i aktiers avkastning. För detta ändamål undersöks 80 aktier på Stockholmsbörsen under tidsperioden 2010-2021. Detta för att utreda om det finns en statistiskt signifikant skillnad mellan den faktiska avkastningen och den avkastning som aktierna bör ha enligt CAPM, samt om de nyckeltal som används i studien har ett statistiskt signifikant samband med avkastning.  Resultaten visar att det finns en statistiskt signifikant skillnad mellan den faktiska avkastningen och den enligt CAPM förväntade avkastningen under studieperioden. Slutsatsen är att CAPM inte kan förutse avkastning på Stockholmsbörsen. Resultaten visar också att avkastning har ett positivt samband med direktavkastning och ett negativt samband med skuldkvot under studieperioden. Variablerna P/E, beta och företagets storlek har inte statistiskt signifikanta samband med avkastning på Stockholmsbörsen. / To be able to explain and predict stock returns is of great interest in finance. Knowledge in the matter can result in more successful investment strategies and a more accurate analysis of a company's value. Many different strategies have been developed in order to better be able to explain stock returns. One of these is the CAPM, which aims to predict a stock’s return by estimating its risk. The model has been subject to much critique, for example because it excludes significant variables and contains unrealistic assumptions. Other strategies use key performance indicators in attempts to explain stock returns, and previous research shows that there in fact are variables that help explain variations in stock returns. Even though no model is perfect, some may work better than others.  The purpose of this study is 1) to analyse the performance of CAPM on the Swedish stock market, and 2) analyse if the key performance indicators beta, P/E ratio, dividend yield, firm size and debt ratio can explain variations in stock returns. For this purpose the return of 80 stocks on the Swedish stock market are investigated between 2010-2021. This is done in order to determine if there is a significant difference between the actual returns and the returns predicted by CAPM, and also if the key performance indicators used in this study have had a significant relationship with returns.  The results show that there is a significant difference between actual returns and the returns predicted by CAPM during the time period investigated. From this the conclusion is drawn that CAPM is not able to predict returns on the Swedish stock market. The results also show that stock returns have a positive relationship with dividend yield and a negative relationship with debt ratio during this time period. However, the variables P/E, beta and firm size do not have a significant relationship with stock returns.

本研究以中國大陸上市公司為研究對象，探討股票報酬與公司治理間之關係。此外，為了檢視中國大陸公司治理是否為股票市場上之系統風險，本研究採用學術上廣為使用之四因子模式（Carhart 1997）作為基本迴歸模型，藉由控制住影響大部分股票變異之四因子，純粹探討公司治理指標對於股票報酬之解釋能力。最後，本研究進一步比較各公司治理指標對於股票報酬變異之解釋力相對強弱為何。 實證結果發現： （1）國家股股東持股比率相對較高、董事會規模相對較大、董事長兼任總經 理之公司具有較高股票報酬；而機構法人持股比率相對較高、公眾股股東持股比率相對較高、獨立董事占董事會比率相對較高之公司則具有較低股票報酬。 （2）絕大部分公司治理指標對於超額股票報酬具有顯著影響力，本研究進而推論中國大陸公司治理為股票市場上之系統風險之一。然而，公司治理指標對於提升四因子模式解釋力之程度相當有限。 （3）在原本四因子模式中加入「國家股股東持股比率溢酬因子」、「獨立董 事占總董事人數溢酬因子」二公司治理指標，會比加入「公眾股股東持股比率溢酬因子」、「董事會規模溢酬因子」指標具有較佳之模式解釋力。而在模式中加入「公眾股股東持股比率溢酬因子」、「董事會規模溢酬因子」二公司治理指標又比「機構法人持股比率溢酬因子」指標具有較佳之模式解釋力。 / This study investigates the relation between corporate governance and stock returns in China’s listed companies. Additionally, I apply four-factor model (Carhart 1997) to examine whether China’s corporate governance mechanisms are systematic risks in stock market. At last, I compare the explanation power of excess returns among all corporate governance indexes. I find that: (1) Firms, with higher level of nation ownership, larger board size and dual roles of chairman and managing director, have higher returns; firms ,with higher level of legal person ownership, of public ownership, of independent directors’ ratio, have lower returns. (2) Most Corporate governance indexes have significant impacts on excess stock returns, so we infer that corporate governance in China is one of systematic risks in stock market. However, I also find that corporate governance indexes add few margin contributions to four-factor model. (3) Governance indexes of nation ownership and of independent directors’ ratio have more impact on stock returns than the index of public ownership and of board size. Meanwhile, index of public ownership and of board size have more impact on stock returns than the index of legal person ownership.

Cette thèse porte sur la prédiction de la détresse financière et son impact sur le rendement des actions. L’objet principal de cette thèse est de : (i) prédire la détresse financière des petites et moyennes entreprises françaises en utilisant plusieurs spécifications économétriques tels que, le modèle Logit, les réseaux de neurones artificiels, la méthode SVM et la régression des moindres carrés partiels, et (ii) d’identifier les facteurs de risque de détresse financière à caractère systématique, explicatifs des rendements des actions, et additionnels au modèle de Fama et French (1993) tels que le momentum, la détresse relative, la liquidité et la Value-at-Risk, sur le marché boursier Français. Cette étude comporte deux parties. La première partie, composée de 2 chapitres, s’interroge sur les principaux indicateurs discriminants entre les petites et moyennes entreprises françaises saines et celles en détresse financière un an et deux ans avant la défaillance. Elle mobilise différentes approches de prédiction et aboutit à des résultats empiriques qui font l’objet d’analyse. La deuxième partie, composée aussi de 2 chapitres, étudie le pouvoir explicatif, du modèle de Fama et French (1993) augmenté de certains facteurs de risque, mais aussi des modèles alternatifs à cette approche dans le contexte français. Les tests portent aussi sur le caractère systématique des facteurs de risque additionnels ou alternatifs, explicatifs des rendements des actions. Les résultats empiriques obtenus font l’objet d’analyse et permettent de proposer des implications managériales aux décideurs. / This thesis focuses on financial distress and its impact on stock returns. The main goal of this dissertation is: (i) to predict the financial distress of French small and medium-sized firms using a number of techniques namely Logit model, Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machine techniques, and Partial Least Squares, and (ii) to identify the systematic risk factors of financial distress that can explain stock returns, in addition to those of Fama and French (1993) such as the momentum, the relative distress, the liquidity, and the Value-at-Risk in the French stock market. This study has been concretized in two parts. The first part, composed of 2 chapters, wonders about the main indicators that can discriminate between distressed and non-distressed French small and medium-sized firms one and two years before default. It mobilizes different prediction techniques and leads to the empirical results that are the subject of the analysis. The second part, composed also of 2 chapters, investigates the explanatory power of Fama and French (1993) model augmented by a number of risk factors, as well as alternative models in the French context. The tests also focus on the systematic nature of the additional or alternative risk factors, explaining the stock returns. The obtained empirical results are analyzed and propose managerial implications to decision makers.

本研究的目的在於探討企業的財務結構決策是否攸關市場價值。根據加權平均資金成本與企業評價模式相關文獻基礎，產生下列三個假設：(1)資本結構與平均資金成本存有關聯性；(2)最適資本結構必須存在，以使平均資金成本達到最低；(3)平均資金成本與企業價值也存有關聯性。故本研究之實證議題探討：(1)平均資金成本與資本結構的關聯性以及最佳資本結構是否存在(2)加權平均資金成本、權益資金成本與企業價值的關聯性(3)資本結構與平均資金成本之關聯性對企業價值的影響。 本研究使用民國80年至88年台灣證交所股票上市公司作為樣本資料，主要的實證結果如下。財務結構與平均資金成本具有顯著的負向關係，故實證結果並不支持M-M 的槓桿無關論。在十八個產業中，大約半數的產業存在最適資本結構。此外，相對於平均資金成本而言，權益資金成本與股價報酬呈現顯著的負向關係，且具有較高的解釋力；這個結果強調了權益資金成本在解釋股價報酬上的重要性。 本研究亦發現，企業經理人無法透過財務結構的調整來極大化企業的價值，經理人應該考量其他方式來極大化公司的價值。 / The purpose of this thesis is to investigate whether financial structure decisions of a firm are relevant to its market value. Three assumptions underlie the literature on weighted average cost of capital and firm valuation models. First, the linkage exists between the capital structure and the average cost of capital. Second, in order to minimize the average cost of capital, the presence of optimal capital structure is required. And third, the relationship exists between the average cost of capital and firm values. The empirical issues explored in this thesis therefore include: (1) The relationship between the average cost of capital and the capital structure and the presence of optimal capital structure; (2) The association between weighted average cost of capital, cost of equity capital and firm values; and (3) The influence of capital structure-average cost of capital relationship on firm values. Using the listed companies on Taiwan Stock Exchange over the period of 1991 to 1999 as the sample, major empirical findings are as follows. The empirical evidence indicates that financial structure is significantly negatively associated with the average cost of capital, which in turn may imply the M-M leverage irrelevance proposition is not supported by the sample firms examined. About half of the 18 industries examined in this study suggest the presence of optimal capital structure. Furthermore, compared to the average cost of capital, the cost of equity capital is found to be significantly and negatively associated with stock returns and has better explanatory power. This emphasizes the importance of the cost of equity capital in interpreting the behavior of stock returns. In addition, this thesis also finds that managers’ influence of maximizing firms’values through adjusting their firms’financial structures is limited. Managers may have to find avenues other than financial structure decisions to maximize the values of their firms.

Στην παρούσα εργασία μελετούμε τη σχέση μεταξύ χρηματιστηριακών αποδόσεων και δείκτη εμπιστοσύνης στις 27 χώρες-μέλη της ΕΕ για τα έτη 1985-2006. Βρήκαμε ότι για το μεγαλύτερο μέρος των χωρών της ΕΕ εμφανίζεται θετική συσχέτιση μεταξύ αποδόσεων και δείκτη εμπιστοσύνης του καταναλωτή στον βραχυχρόνιο ορίζοντα. Οι μεταβολές και στους δύο δείκτες τείνουν να κινούνται παράλληλα στην ίδια περίοδο, με εξαίρεση την πλειοψηφία των νεοεισελθέντων χωρών. Στον μακροπρόθεσμο ορίζοντα, βρήκαμε ότι για τις περισσότερες χώρες ο συντελεστής γίνεται σχεδόν μηδενικός. Για το μεγαλύτερο μέρος των χωρών της ΕΕ υφίσταται σχέση αιτιότητας μεταξύ των μεταβλητών, με τις αποδόσεις να προκαλούν κατά Granger τον δείκτη εμπιστοσύνης του καταναλωτή και τον δείκτη οικονομικής εμπιστοσύνης, αλλά το αντίστροφο δεν ισχύει. Αμφίδρομη σχέση αιτιότητας μεταξύ αποδόσεων και εμπιστοσύνης των καταναλωτών παρατηρείται μόνο για την Γαλλία οριακά, ενώ για την ΕΕ βρήκαμε οτι υπάρχει αμφίδρομη σχέση αιτιότητας μεταξύ αποδόσεων και δείκτη οικονομικής εμπιστoσύνης. / This paper studies the relationship between stock market developments and confidence index for the 27 EU countries - members over the years 1985-2006. We found that for the majority of the EU countries exists positive correlation between the stock market index and the confidence indicators (consumer confidence indicator and economic sentiment indicator) in the short horizon. The changes between these indexes tempt to move in the same direction contemporaneously and in the short horizon (of 1 month), with the new EU members to be an exception. The correlation becomes almost zero in the long horizon. For the most of the EU countries there is causality between the variables. Stock returns in general Granger-cause the Consumer Confidence Index and the Economic Sentiment Indicator, but not vice versa. We found also that there is feedback causality relationship between stock returns and confidence for France and the EU as a whole.