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本文旨在探討我國上市公司除了盈餘外，資本支出是否具有增額資訊內涵。研究內容分為兩個部份，第一部份在使用狀態空間樣型探討資本支出是否有助於預測未來盈餘；第二部份根據本文推導之模式探討資本支出資訊與股標報酬之關聯。〔分為年度研究與長期研究（兩年及三年）兩個部份〕。研究結果發現： 1.除了盈餘資訊外，資本支出無法幫助吾人預測未來盈餘。 2.無論係長期或年度研究，均呈現股價領先財務報表期間現象。在長期研究中，本文發現大公司之股價有post announcement drift現象。 3.盈餘、資本支出資訊（或財務報表資訊）對股價之解釋能力視股市係屬多空頭市場而定。多頭市場解釋能力較高。 4.長期研究財務報表對股價解釋能力高於年度研究。 5.盈餘水準、資本支出水準均具增額資訊內涵，不論長期或年度研究。 6.非預期土地投資與非預期廠房設備投資對股價均具解釋能力。 7.未預期資本支出反應係數之影響因素： (1)就成長機會而言： 股票市價╱權益比愈大之公司，營收成長率愈高之公司未預期資本支出反應係數愈大。 (2)就系統風險而言： β值愈大之公司，未預期資本支出反應係數愈大。 (3)就資本支出報酬率而言： 盈餘水準、盈餘持續度愈大之公司，未預期資本支出反應係數愈大；而自有資金比率愈低之公司，未預期資本支出反應係數愈大；小公司之資本支出反應係數較大；研發水準愈高之公司，未預期資本支出反應係數愈大。 (4)就資本支出受益年限而言： 本文以產業進入障礙為資本支出受益年限之替代變數。研究結果發現各行業之資本支出反應係數與產業進入障礙正相關。 (5)資本支出型態 規模成長型公司之資本支出反應係數大於汰舊換新型公司。 / This study aims to examine the incremental information content of capital expenditures of Taiwan listed companies. Taiwan listed companies generally have intensive capital expenditure rather then research and development costs in order to sustain the growth of their performance. Thus, this study suspects that the level of capital expenditures could help predict future earnings upon which capital expenditure could incrementally explain the earnings/return relationship. Empirically, this study first investigates the relationship between current capital expenditure and future earnings. Second, in order to select the optimal earnings/return windows, this study simulates the returns window for large and small firms over various long windows. Third, this study extends Collins and Kothari (1989) and Feltham and Ohlson (1995) to investigate whether the capital expenditure would contain an incremental information content in terms of earnings/return relationship. The findings of this study can be summarized as follows. 1.Besides earnings itself, the capital expenditure cannot well predict future earnings. 2.No matter what is temporal or cross sectional study, price leads the realization of earnings. In addition, the large firm sample group demonstrates the phenomenon of post-earnings drift. 3.The capital expenditure has more explanatory power to earnings/return relationship in the bull market than in the bear market. 4.Earnings and capital expenditure level have incremental information contents in terms of earnings/return relationship. 5.Both unexpected property and unexpected plant investments have explanatory power to the stock price. 6.The determinants of capital expenditure response coefficient, including growth opportunity, systematic risk, returns on capital expenditure, beneficial period of capital expenditure, and types of capital expenditure can increase the explanatory power of earnings/return relationship.

Esta tesis consiste de tres ensayos. En el primero, documentamos la correlación imaginaria entre las decisiones de compensación de los ejecutivos (CEO) al demostrar que el hándicap de los ejecutivos que juegan al golf no está correlacionado con su desempeño en la empresa mientras que sí lo está con su compensación. Los golfistas ganan más que los que no juegan al golf, y las pagas se incrementan con la habilidad en este juego. En el segundo ensayo explicamos la reciente espiral de las compensaciones de los ejecutivos basados en el sesgo de atribución fundamental. El análisis de las series temporales agregadas y de datos de sección cruzada correspondiente a la burbuja del mercado accionario en los noventa sugiere que los accionistas exageran al atribuir las subidas y bajadas de los precios de las acciones corporativas a las aptitudes de liderazgo del ejecutivo mientras que subestiman el rol de las fluctuaciones del mercado accionario que se encuentran fuera del control de estos. En el tercer ensayo demostramos que un gran número de Ofertas Públicas Iniciales predice sistemáticamente, tanto dentro como fuera de la muestra, el subsiguiente bajo rendimientos agregado y ponderado, y la diferencia de rendimientos entre las pequeñas y grandes firmas. / This thesis consists of three essays. In the first, we document illusory correlation in CEO compensation decisions by demonstrating that golf handicaps of CEOs are uncorrelated with corporate performance, but related to CEO compensation. Golfers earn more than non-golfers and pay increases with golfing ability. In the second essay we propose a fundamental attribution bias-based explanation of the recent explosive growth in CEO pay. Analysis of aggregate time series data and cross sectional data from the late 1990s stock market bubble period suggests that shareholders overattribute prominent increases and decreases in the prices of corporate stocks to the leadership and skill of the CEOs and underestimate the role of stock market fluctuations that are beyond CEO control. In the third essay we show that increases in the number of Initial Public Offerings reliably predicts in-sample and out-of-sample decreases in subsequent equally weighted aggregate stock returns and the return differential between small and big firms.

Submitted by Carol Inoue Dick (carol.idick@gmail.com) on 2014-01-14T12:32:28Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao EPGE - Carol Inoue Dick.pdf: 816657 bytes, checksum: b14b922889fd19290bb1bec893c606a4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza (vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2014-02-03T13:04:12Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao EPGE - Carol Inoue Dick.pdf: 816657 bytes, checksum: b14b922889fd19290bb1bec893c606a4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-02-07T13:16:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao EPGE - Carol Inoue Dick.pdf: 816657 bytes, checksum: b14b922889fd19290bb1bec893c606a4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-12-18 / Em meio ao crescente volume de publicações sobre sustentabilidade e finanças, diversas pesquisas internacionais e brasileiras têm abordado a relação entre empresas classificadas como sustentáveis e o retorno de suas ações. Nesta mesma linha, este trabalho utilizou o método de estudos de eventos para verificar se entre 2005 e 2013 houve retornos anormais quando as empresas entraram e saíram do Índice de Sustentabilidade Empresarial (ISE). Além de contemplar um período mais atualizado do que seus precedentes, este estudo difere-se dos demais ao analisar o as observações individualmente e ao buscar estabelecer uma relação dos retornos anormais acumulados com as variáveis governança corporativa, tamanho, rentabilidade e alavancagem. Os resultados mostraram que embora não haja evidências conclusivas quando os casos são tomados individualmente, em conjunto eles indicam que a inclusão e a exclusão do ISE geram retornos anormais significativos, positivos e negativos respectivamente, em linha com a teoria dos stakeholders. Quanto às variáveis de controle, nenhuma apresentou relação com os retornos anormais acumulados. / Among the growing volume of publications about sustainability and finance, several international and Brazilian studies regarding the relationship between companies classified as sustainable and the return of their shares have been published. Following this course, this study applied the event study method to verify if between 2005 and 2013 there were abnormal returns when firms entered or exited the Corporate Sustainability Index (ISE). Besides accounting for a longer period than its predecessors, this paper differs from others by analyzing the observations individually and seeking to establish a relationship between abnormal returns and corporate governance, size, profitability and leverage. The results indicate that, although there is no conclusive evidence when cases are considered individually, together they indicate that inclusion and exclusion of ISE generate respectively positive and negative significant abnormal returns, which is in line with stakeholder theory. Regarding the control variables, it was not possible to establish any relationship between them and the cumulative abnormal returns.

Submitted by Leonardo Mathiazzi Lagnado (lagnado@gvmail.br) on 2016-09-09T00:28:36Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE - Lagnado - Versão Final.pdf: 7778858 bytes, checksum: 16803ed7c2489aa7863aa44717c8719a (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Leonardo, boa tarde Para que possamos aceitar seu trabalho, deverá realizar algumas alterações conforme as normas da ABNT. Segue abaixo: - Na capa: o nome da Escola deve estar em Português. - Na contra capa e na folha de assinaturas, todas as informações também deverão estar em português; exceto o título. - Incluir o Resumo em português. - Retirar a numeração das páginas anteriores à página da Introdução. Em seguida, realizar uma nova submissão. Att on 2016-09-09T16:20:32Z (GMT) / Submitted by Leonardo Mathiazzi Lagnado (lagnado@gvmail.br) on 2016-09-09T17:19:58Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE - Lagnado - Versão Final.pdf: 2462733 bytes, checksum: 42b0f77db7736bc5bba5fb9151e9bfe7 (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Leonardo, boa tarde Retirar EESP que consta ao lado do nome da escola. O resumo, precisa estar em outra página e não junto com o Abstract. Por gentileza, alterar novamente e realizar outra submissão. grata. on 2016-09-09T17:35:09Z (GMT) / Submitted by Leonardo Mathiazzi Lagnado (lagnado@gvmail.br) on 2016-09-09T17:49:12Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE - Lagnado - Versão Final.pdf: 2161653 bytes, checksum: f9a6629a0d197f07ac895a9744a94dbc (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Leonardo, Verificar as páginas anteriores à Introdução, pois permanecem numeradas. A numeração a partir da Introdução, está correta. Mas os números devem estar ao lado direito. Aguardo. on 2016-09-09T17:55:21Z (GMT) / Submitted by Leonardo Mathiazzi Lagnado (lagnado@gvmail.br) on 2016-09-09T18:10:05Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE - Lagnado - Versão Final.pdf: 2179487 bytes, checksum: edf32ad2e01e1bd9e7b9d944d5979f47 (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Leonardo, A numeração deve estar ao lado direito, conforme informado anteriormente. Aguardo. Grata on 2016-09-09T18:17:37Z (GMT) / Submitted by Leonardo Mathiazzi Lagnado (lagnado@gvmail.br) on 2016-09-09T18:37:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE - Lagnado - Versão Final.pdf: 2196807 bytes, checksum: 5df765c28e119b9162e7a6ec07a45e4a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2016-09-09T18:49:45Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE - Lagnado - Versão Final.pdf: 2196807 bytes, checksum: 5df765c28e119b9162e7a6ec07a45e4a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-09T20:03:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE - Lagnado - Versão Final.pdf: 2196807 bytes, checksum: 5df765c28e119b9162e7a6ec07a45e4a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-08-23 / This dissertation is aimed at evaluating the risk-return relationship of stocks by incrementing the Fama and French five-factor model (F. FAMA and R. FRENCH, 2015) with two new variables. This was done by creating a six-factor model aimed at capturing the size, value, profitability, investment and governance patterns in average stock returns. An additional seven-factor model was also created by adding a herding factor. Governance and herding were chosen as additional factors because of a hypothesis that they would be relevant in less efficient markets such as Brazil. The evaluation of the two model´s performance versus the traditional five-factor model was performed next, as well as the assessment of relevance of the newly added factors. Testing the six-factor model, it had a similar performance to the five-factor model, and the governance factor proved to be relevant in the Brazilian market. Adding the herding factor weakened the results, although the factor still proved to be relevant in some cases. / O objetivo desta dissertação é avaliar a relação risco-retorno de ações incrementando o modelo de cinco fatores de Fama e French (F. FAMA and R. FRENCH, 2015) com duas novas variáveis. Isso foi feito criando um modelo de seis fatores que busca capturar os padrões de tamanho, valor, lucratividade, investimento e governança nos retornos médios de ações. Um modelo adicional de sete fatores também foi criado adicionando um fator para o efeito manada. A governança e o efeito manada foram escolhidos como fatores adicionais por conta da hipótese de que eles seriam relevantes em mercados menos eficientes como o Brasil. A avaliação da performance dos dois modelos contra o modelo tradicional de cinco fatores foi então realizada, bem como a avaliação da relevância dos novos fatores. Testando o modelo de seis fatores, descobrimos que ele tem uma performance semelhante ao de cinco fatores, e o fator de governança mostrou ser relevante no mercado Brasileiro. Adicionando o fator para o efeito manada enfraqueceu os resultados, embora o fator ainda mostrou-se relevante em alguns casos.

[pt] Este trabalho tem como objetivo explorar o benefício da inclusão de um novo fator relacionado a juros aos principais modelos de análise do cross-section dos retornos de ações, como o CAPM e o modelo de 3 fatores de Fama & French. O foco em especial é sobre a anomalia dos maiores retornos ajustados ao risco das estratégias de spread entre ações de baixo e alto beta de mercado, que também pode ser visto nos spreads entre ações de baixa e alta volatilidade. A motivação para inclusão deste fator vem da teoria de que o bom desempenho destas estratégias é simplesmente uma exposição a taxa de juros, não capturada pelos modelos usuais. Apesar da literatura apontar que as taxas de juros afetam diversas variáveis econômicas, a maior parte dos trabalhos de análise do cross-section dos retornos de ações é conduzida através de modelos de fatores compostos apenas por ações, sem fatores ou ativos diretamente relacionados a mudança da taxa de juros. A análise é feita com modelos lineares de fatores para o mercado acionário norte-americano entre 1976 até 2015. / [en] The literature shows that interest rates influence different economic variables such as consumption willingness, investment or expected asset returns. Notwithstanding, most works dealing with cross-sectional analysis of stock returns use only stock-based factor models disregarding the effects of interest rate movements. In this work, we explore the benefits of incrementing the traditional cross-sectional analysis (CAPM and Fama-French 3-factor model) with a new factor characterizing interest rate evolution over time. With this new factor, our model aims at better explaining stock return dispersion as well as a known anomaly of high risk-adjusted returns for low-volatility stock portfolios. Empirical analysis of linear factor models are carried out using US stock data using the Kenneth French database and the new factor is constructed using the US Aggregate do Barclays index that measures the return of low-risk assets.

The financial crisisand the European debt crisis wreaked havoc on many European economies and stock markets. Previous studies have shown that crises are associated with high debt and linked with lower growth. Studies also suggest that politicians underestimate the risks associated with high debt during economic upturn and that economic crises are usually connected with high volatility. Volatility is used as a measurement of risk since high volatility indicates larger market uncertainty of the valuation of the underlying asset. Previous studies have shown that volatility can be a good indication of a firm’s riskiness. As volatility and capital structure both relate to risk and are influenced by market reactions, investigating the impact that capital structure has on volatility during times of global financial market distress could provide insight and be an important tool for investors. This thesis will investigate firms listed on the Stockholm stock exchange, divided into seven industries, in order to find the impact capital structure may have on volatility, before, during and in the aftermath of the recent European debt crisis (2006-2016). The study will use a quantitative research method, with an objectivistic and positivistic research philosophy as well as a deductive research approach. By using multiple regression models, theoretical relations surrounding volatility and capital structure will be contrasted to the results of the study.The results of the study finds that capital structure does not play a significant part inchanges in volatility for firms during any investigated period when testing for all firms simultaneously. However, the same claim cannot be made for when each industry is tested individually. Empirical evidence showed that capital structure is a influencer for changes in volatility for the consumer goods industry prior to and after the debt crisis and in the consumer goods service industry after the debt crisis. Investors are urged to not be concerned by large debt levels, as long as they invest in largefirms and choose the right sectors. The financial sector is seen as the least risky, with low volatility levels. Furthermore, the basic material sector, despite outward appearances, should be avoided as it presents recent periods of unusually large volatility levels.

In this thesis we apply neural networks as nonparametric and nonlinear methods to the Central European stock markets returns (Czech, Polish, Hungarian and German) modelling. In the first two chapters we define prediction task and link the classical econometric analysis to neural networks. We also present optimization methods which will be used in the tests, conjugate gradient, Levenberg-Marquardt, and evolutionary search method. Further on, we present statistical methods for comparing the predictive accuracy of the non-nested models, as well as economic significance measures. In the empirical tests we first show the power of neural networks on Mackey-Glass chaotic time series followed by real-world data of the daily and weekly returns of mentioned stock exchanges for the 2000:2006 period. We find neural networks to have significantly lower prediction error than classical models for daily DAX series, weekly PX50 and BUX series. The lags of time-series were used, and also cross-country predictability has been tested, but the results were not significantly different. We also achieved economic significance of predictions with both daily and weekly PX-50, BUX and DAX with 60% accuracy of prediction. Finally we use neural network to learn Black-Scholes model and compared the pricing errors of...

[pt] Nós mostramos que um fator político que explora a variação cross-section em retornos individuais de ações pode prever o resultado de eleições nacionais, incluindo o ganho líquido de assentos no congresso e o presidente. Usando eleições presidenciais dos Estados Unidos desde 1928, nós também encontramos que esse portfolio long-short construído ao redor da eleição entrega informação sobre aprovação presidencial por um longo período depois da eleição. / [en] We show that a political factor that exploits cross-sectional variation in individual stock returns can forecast national election results, including net House seat gains and the president. Using US presidential elections since 1928, we also find that this long-short portfolio constructed around the election period delivers information on presidential approval for a long period after the election.

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