2011 was a seminal year in the history of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Popularly referred to as the Arab Spring, the region has experienced a wave of revolutions and instability. It can be classified in three broad categories within 2011: Uprisings that have resulted in the overthrow of standing regimes, uprisings that have failed to overthrow standing regimes, and states that have not experienced popular revolts. In the first category Libya, Egypt, Yemen, and Tunisia have all experienced uprisings resulting in the respective departure of Muamar Gaddafi, Hosni Mubarak, Ali Abdullah Saleh, and Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali. In contrast Syria and Bahrain have experienced uprisings that have not resulted into the toppling of their regimes thus far. Finally, countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran have experienced none of the instability observed in 2011 within the same time period. In tracking the evolution of selectorates, I identified the rise of actors within the newly developing coalitions whose Islamist preferences are unaccounted for in the standard Selectorate Model. As later explained in detail, Selectorate Theory is driven by the public-private goods argument. The theory states that a leader’s political survival is based on the mix of private payoffs he can provide to his selectorate and public goods provided to the general population. The once secular despots are either gone or are on the way out as evident by the removal of Hosni Mubarak, Zine Abidine Ben-Ali, Saddam Hussein, Muamar Gaddafi, Ali Abdullah Saleh, and the currently embattled Bashar Al- Assad. They are being replaced or have already been removed by governments that are led by Islamic Parties. Therefore, newly elected or appointed leaders must take into account the role of religion in their calculus for political survival in a way that they did not before. This begs the question: what about the regimes in my case studies that have not been toppled such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Bahrain? Although these are highly autocratic governments, the leaders of such governments have a legitimacy that is derived from implicit approval of their Islamist allies. This strengthens the argument that religion must be accounted for beyond the standard Selectorate Model rationale for political survival in MENA. In such context I provide a revised Selectorate Model explanation that accounts for the role of religion. I conclude that the standard Selectorate Theory is insufficient for MENA because it is does not account for the role of religion. By testing the coalitional distribution and evolution of selectorates, I developed a revised Selectorate Model that includes the role of religion along with the standard private payoffs – public goods argument. The role of religion is expressed by the presence of religious stakeholders in the agent based model such as clerics, shura councils or Islamic parties present in all selectorates in MENA. I tracked the selectorates through a series of predictions made throughout the course of 2011 using the Senturion agent based model. It serves as a powerful alternative to standard historical analysis and wisdom. I provide an explanation of why certain regimes fell while others remained relatively stable and why some governments experiencing similar instability remain using agent based modeling (ABM) in application to Selectorate Theory.

A dissertação analisa as reformas no setor de inteligência governamental promovidas após a chamada Primavera Árabe em três países árabes e norte-africanos – Egito, Argélia e Tunísia –, especialmente aquelas empreendidas no âmbito das agências de inteligência reconhecidas enquanto polícias políticas: aquelas responsáveis pela repressão interna, as quais atuam politicamente, contando com margens de autonomia e com capacidade de penetração entre os quadros da sociedade civil. O objetivo é contrariar o argumento levantado por diversos analistas, que afirmam que tais países conheceram, no pós-Primavera, a verdadeiras mudanças de regime. Nossa hipótese de pesquisa é justamente a manutenção dos principais elementos definidores dos regimes anteriores às manifestações populares de 2010 e 2011, notadamente do papel político a cargo das forças de segurança e da atuação política das agências de inteligência, os quais não permitem que argumentemos pela mudança dos regimes. Para tanto, promovemos uma análise das dinâmicas históricas destes países, atentando especialmente para os momentos de criação e de mutação/reforma destas agências. Metodologicamente, portanto, nos inscrevemos em uma abordagem histórico-comparativa. Finalmente, a maneira como as agências analisadas foram reformadas, sem o estabelecimento de medidas de transparência, ou de controles externos aos serviços de inteligência, parece confirmar nossa hipótese de pesquisa. / The monograph analyzes the reform in the intelligence sector promoted after the so-called Arab Spring in three Arab and North African countries – Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia – especially those undertaken within the framework of the intelligence agencies recognized as political polices: those responsible for internal repression, who acted politically, counting on marginal autonomy and with the capacity for penetration among the cadres of civil society. Our aim is to contradict the argument put forward by several analysts, who affirm that those countries experienced, in the post-Arab Spring, real processes of regime changes. Our hypothesis is precisely the maintenance of key elements which defined the regimes prior to the popular demonstrations of 2010 and 2011, notably the political role of the security forces and the politicization of the intelligence agencies, which do not allow us to argue for the regime‟s changes. To do so, we promote an analysis of the historical dynamics of these countries, paying special attention to the creation and mutation/reform of the intelligence agencies. Methodologically, therefore, we subscribe to a historical-comparative approach. Finally, the way in which the agencies analyzed have been reformed, without the establishment of transparency measures or external controls of the intelligence services, seems to confirm our hypothesis.

Cette thèse contribue à la littérature sur les manifestations, la participation des femmes au marché du travail et la migration de retour. Le premier chapitre examine l’impact des manifestations égyptiennes de 2011 sur les conditions du marché du travail des femmes en utilisant des données en panel d’avant et d’après la révolution. En utilisant la méthode des doubles différences ainsi que des données sur les «martyrs» de la révolution égyptienne, les résultats suggèrent que les manifestations de 2011 ont réduit les écarts homme-femme en termes de participation au marché du travail au sein du ménage, à travers l’effet du travailleur additionnel. Le deuxième chapitre examine l’impact de la migration temporaire sur la mobilité professionnelle des migrants de retour vis-à-vis des non-migrants. En employant l’approche de variable instrumentale, des doubles différences et des doubles différences combinées avec la méthode d’appariement, les résultats mettent en avant un effet positif de la migration de retour sur la mobilité professionnelle et surtout, pour les migrants de retour les plus éduqués. Le troisième chapitre examine l’impact des première et deuxième vagues de manifestations égyptiennes sur les résultats électoraux durant les premières élections libres et compétitives égyptiennes. Le résultat principal est qu’une exposition élevée aux manifestations mène à un pourcentage de votes plus élevé pour les candidats de l’ancien régime durant les deux tours de scrutin. Les résultats mettent aussi en lumière que les manifestions ont eu des répercussions conservatrices, aux côtés de prévisions économiques négatives, de l’insatisfaction générale à l’égard de la performance du gouvernement, de la réduction des niveaux de confiance envers les institutions publiques et de la reconnaissance croissante des limitations aux libertés civiles et politiques. / This thesis contributes to the literature on protests, women’s labor force participation and return migration. The first chapter examines the effects of the 2011 Egyptian protests on the relative labor market conditions of women using panel data from before and after the protests. Using Difference-in-Differences approach and a unique dataset on the Egyptian “martyrs", the results suggest that the 2011 protests have reduced intra-household differences in labor force participation between husband and wife, through an added-worker effect. The second chapter examines whether temporary international migration enables returnees to climb the occupational ladder compared to non-migrants. Using an instrumental variable approach, Difference-in-Differences and Difference-in-Differences matching techniques, the results suggest that return migration increases the probability of upward occupational mobility, in particular for returnees who belong to the upper end of the educational distribution. The third chapter examines the effects of the first and second waves of Egyptian protests, on voting outcomes during Egypt’s first free presidential elections. The main finding of this chapter is that higher exposure to protests’ intensity leads to a higher share of votes for former regime candidates, both during the first and second rounds of Egypt’s first presidential elections after the uprisings. Results also suggest that the protests led to a conservative backlash, alongside negative economic expectations, general dissatisfaction with government performance, decreasing levels of trust towards public institutions, and increasing recognition of limitations on civil and political liberties.

A dissertação analisa as reformas no setor de inteligência governamental promovidas após a chamada Primavera Árabe em três países árabes e norte-africanos – Egito, Argélia e Tunísia –, especialmente aquelas empreendidas no âmbito das agências de inteligência reconhecidas enquanto polícias políticas: aquelas responsáveis pela repressão interna, as quais atuam politicamente, contando com margens de autonomia e com capacidade de penetração entre os quadros da sociedade civil. O objetivo é contrariar o argumento levantado por diversos analistas, que afirmam que tais países conheceram, no pós-Primavera, a verdadeiras mudanças de regime. Nossa hipótese de pesquisa é justamente a manutenção dos principais elementos definidores dos regimes anteriores às manifestações populares de 2010 e 2011, notadamente do papel político a cargo das forças de segurança e da atuação política das agências de inteligência, os quais não permitem que argumentemos pela mudança dos regimes. Para tanto, promovemos uma análise das dinâmicas históricas destes países, atentando especialmente para os momentos de criação e de mutação/reforma destas agências. Metodologicamente, portanto, nos inscrevemos em uma abordagem histórico-comparativa. Finalmente, a maneira como as agências analisadas foram reformadas, sem o estabelecimento de medidas de transparência, ou de controles externos aos serviços de inteligência, parece confirmar nossa hipótese de pesquisa. / The monograph analyzes the reform in the intelligence sector promoted after the so-called Arab Spring in three Arab and North African countries – Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia – especially those undertaken within the framework of the intelligence agencies recognized as political polices: those responsible for internal repression, who acted politically, counting on marginal autonomy and with the capacity for penetration among the cadres of civil society. Our aim is to contradict the argument put forward by several analysts, who affirm that those countries experienced, in the post-Arab Spring, real processes of regime changes. Our hypothesis is precisely the maintenance of key elements which defined the regimes prior to the popular demonstrations of 2010 and 2011, notably the political role of the security forces and the politicization of the intelligence agencies, which do not allow us to argue for the regime‟s changes. To do so, we promote an analysis of the historical dynamics of these countries, paying special attention to the creation and mutation/reform of the intelligence agencies. Methodologically, therefore, we subscribe to a historical-comparative approach. Finally, the way in which the agencies analyzed have been reformed, without the establishment of transparency measures or external controls of the intelligence services, seems to confirm our hypothesis.

The present paper seeks to establish some relationships between political regimes and constitutional design, putting into debate the notion of the Arab Spring and its extent to explain the regimes changes and authoritarian breakdown. This is why topics as the scope of political participation in constitutional processes and the context of constitutional drafting are reviewed on the lights of the dataset of the Comparative Constitutional Project. The article is divided in five main parts. Firstly, it is contextualized the Arab Spring centered in the process of decision making and the actors related to the process of constitutional design. In the second place, the notions of majority constitutions and constitution compromises are turning in a debate. In the third place, a review of comparative studies about constitutions is presented by emphasize the work of Ackerman and Arato. In the fourth part, the data collected from de Comparative Constitution Project and the Economist Intelligence Unit is presented.Finally, some conclusions are elaborated. / El presente artículo busca establecer algunas relaciones entre los regímenes políticos y los diseños institucionales, poniendo en debate la noción de la Primavera Árabe y sus alcances para explicar los cambios en regímenes y la caída de los autoritarismos. Es por ello que temas como el alcance de la participación política en los procesos constitucionales y el contexto de la redacción constitucional son revisados a la luz de las bases de datos del Comparative Constitutional Project. El artículo está dividido en cinco partes principales. En primer lugar, la Primavera Árabe es contextualizada centrándose en los procesos de toma de decisión y en los actores relacionados al proceso de diseño constitucional. En segundo lugar, las nociones de constituciones mayoritarias y compromiso constitucional son puestas en debate. En tercer lugar, es presentada una revisión de estudios comparativos con énfasis en los trabajos de Ackerman y Arato. En cuarto lugar, se introduce la data a usar basada en los proyectos del Comparative Constitutional Project y el Economist Intelligence Unit. Finalmente, se presentan las conclusiones.

The dissertation documented the degree of Turkey’s involvement in the promotion of democracy in the Arab Middle East (ME). Initially, I investigated why and under what conditions Turkey promotes democracy in the ME, and then I explained strategies through which Turkey promotes democracy in the region. I applied the neo-classical realist theoretical framework and a mixed methodology in the research, and I provided evidence from two sources: face-to-face interviews with the Turkish and foreign officials and common citizens, and the statistical data from institutions, such as the OECD, Turkish Statistical Institute, and World Bank. My research indicates that Turkey promotes democracy through seven channels. These channels are official development assistance (ODA), mentoring, demonstrative effect, normative pressure, conditionality, military power, enlargement, and civil society organizations. Turkey promotes democracy in the ME for three substantial reasons: first, to advance its security and economic interests; second, to improve the political, social, and economic conditions of people living in the region; and third, to create long-term regional stability, crucial for cooperation in economic and security realms. I attempted to engage in debates with two distinct, but interrelated fields of comparative politics and international relations. My most important contribution to the field is that I documented Turkey’s case of democracy promotion regarding the degree of Turkey’s involvement in this endeavor, its strategies, specificities, and effectiveness in the region. I also contribute to the field as I explained the difference between democracy promotion policies of a regional power, such as Turkey, and global powers, such as the US. I further engaged in discussions that illuminate some aspects of the interplay between the identity and strategic interests in states’ foreign policy decisions.

The diploma thesis deals with the regime change in the context of the Arab Spring 2011 with focus on Tunisia, Egypt and Syria. The aim of the thesis is to determine factors causing different progress towards political reforms in each country. Theoretical framework is provided by characteristics of undemocratic regimes, transitions to democracy and democracy itself. Each country is introduced from the historical point of view with focus on the 20th century, especially current methods of the governance. Several conclusions are made based on analytical -- synthetical method of reviewing historical, political and socioeconomical factors determining the domestic situation in compared countries and explaining their influence on different transition progress towards the new political system.

Intervention in Libya is an anomaly in President Barack Obama's foreign policy during his eight years in the office. This thesis aims to analyze the decision-making process leading to this unprecedented step. Using Graham Allison's Bureaucratic Politics Model, the purpose of this analysis is to investigate the influence of some presidential advisors and allies on his final decision. Data for this study were collected using President Obama's public statements, biographies of several members of the administration, and secondary academic sources. After some general context, the thesis closely examines the selected period from the first protests in Libya on February 15 to the beginning of the Operation United Protector on March 31. This timeframe of forty-five days is further divided into the week-by-week process tracing analyses. The development on the ground in Libya is merged with changes of attitude in the American administration and changing alliances among the members of the advisory team of the President. The Bureaucratic Politics Model is used to analyze specific tactics used by American officials to impose their preferred scenario. The study also tests the applicability of several new methodological approaches within the Bureaucratic Politics Model like the palace politics perspective,...

In the era of the Arab Spring, the people of Libya and Syria have fought for freedom and democracy. This essay aims to examine and analyze how The United Nations Security Council works to solve international problems in the world.   The main questions of my study are:   - How did the UN work on the basis of R2P in Libya and Syria?  - Why could the UN Security Council to agree on R2P in Libya but not in Syria?  Under the Arab Spring as the context, the purpose of this essay is to study the role of the United Nations UN in Syria and Libya. So, I highlight to the role of UN in R2P Responsibility to Protect in Libya and Syria. In 2011, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1973, which established a no-fly zone over Libya. The UN’s actions in Libya succeeded to remove the dictator Muammar Al-Gaddafi by R2P's principle, while The UN failed to remove dictator Bashar AL-Assad in Syria. The purpose of the R2P in Libya was to establish a no-fly zone and safe areas to protect civilians, but this led to the overthrow of Al-Gaddafi's regime in violation of the UN Security Council Resolution 1973.  I have used the theory of Realism and Liberalism to adapt them with my own theory to achieve the aim of my essay. In this paper, I used also content analysis as a guide of Method to reach conclusions. The materials used for this essay are documents, books and articles etc.  The results of my study are that the most important reason for Russia and China to use their veto in the UN Security Council is fear for the misuse of the international resolution to overthrow the regime in Syria. And thus, harm the very strong Chinese and Russian interests in Syria.

This dissertation examines the forms of media that are most productive for the formation of social and political movements at their earliest stages. The problem it confronts is a contemporary one: the dominant forms of social media on the internet do not allow for the slow and focused deliberation this is demanded for radical ideas that are attempting to undermine a status quo to begin to take root. Movements rise and fall very quickly, following the metabolism of sites like Facebook and Twitter, without having the long-term impact they seek. By first looking historically at a series of pre-digital case studies – starting with letters before the scientific revolution and moving through petitions, small newspapers, samizdat and all the way to zines in the 1990s – aspects of more effective incubatory media will present themselves. Each chapter in this first half of the book zeroes in on the affordances of these particular forms of communication that made them so useful. After having looked at pre-digital communication, the dissertation will then turn to contemporary case studies and the challenges posed by social media for activists of all stripes looking to incubate their ideas on these platforms. Starting with the Arab Spring in Egypt, which offers a cautionary tale of a movement overtaken by the social media metabolism and moving through the 2010s toward Black Lives Matter, there is a progression of awareness about what tools the internet can provide for communication and which prove most productive for offering sustainability to a movement. The conclusion is one gained from the juxtaposition of the historical and the contemporary, which builds to an awareness of what affordances are required for a radical idea to avoid burning out.