Um dos aspectos regulatórios fundamentais para o mercado imobiliário no Brasil são os limites para obtenção de financiamento no Sistema Financeiro de Habitação. Esses limites podem ser definidos de forma a aumentar ou reduzir a oferta de crédito neste mercado, alterando o comportamento dos seus agentes e, com isso, o preço de mercado dos imóveis. Neste trabalho, propomos um modelo de formação de preços no mercado imobiliário brasileiro com base no comportamento dos agentes que o compõem. Os agentes vendedores têm comportamento heterogêneo e são influenciados pela demanda histórica, enquanto que os agentes compradores têm o seu comportamento determinado pela disponibilidade de crédito. Esta disponibilidade de crédito, por sua vez, é definida pelos limites para concessão de financiamento no Sistema Financeiro de Habitação. Verificamos que o processo markoviano que descreve preço de mercado converge para um sistema dinâmico determinístico quando o número de agentes aumenta, e analisamos o comportamento deste sistema dinâmico. Mostramos qual é a família de variáveis aleatórias que representa o comportamento dos agentes vendedores de forma que o sistema apresente um preço de equilíbrio não trivial, condizente com a realidade. Verificamos ainda que o preço de equilíbrio depende não só das regras de concessão de financiamento no Sistema Financeiro de Habitação, como também do preço de reserva dos compradores e da memória e da sensibilidade dos vendedores a alterações na demanda. A memória e a sensibilidade dos vendedores podem levar a oscilações de preços acima ou abaixo do preço de equilíbrio (típicas de processos de formação de bolhas); ou até mesmo a uma bifurcação de Neimark-Sacker, quando o sistema apresenta dinâmica oscilatória estável. / One of the fundamental regulatory aspects for the housing market in Brazil are the limits for obtaining a residential mortgage loan within the Sistema Financeiro de Habitação. These limits can be defined so as to increase or reduce credit supply in this market, changing its agents behavior and, therefore, the housing market price. In this work we propose a pricing model for the brazilian housing market based on the behavior of its agents. Sellers have heterogeneous behavior and are influenced by the historical demand, while buyers behavior is determined by credit availability. The availability of credit is, in its turn, defined by the regulatory limits for obtaining a residential mortgage loan. We have verified that the Markov process which describes the market price converges to a deterministic dynamical system as the number of agents increase, and we have analyzed the behavior of this emerging system. We show which family of random variables may represent the behavior of sellers so that the system has a nontrivial equilibrium price, consistent with reality. We have also verified that the equilibrium price depends not only on the regulatory limits for obtaing a loan, but also on buyers reserve price and on sellers memory and sensitivity to changes in the demand. Sellers memory and sensitivity to changes in the demand can result in price oscillations above or below the equilibrium level, which is typical in bubble formation processes; or even in a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, when the price has a stable oscillatory dynamics.

This collection of essays examines the topic of macroeconomic stabilisation in an international context, focusing on monetary policy, capital controls and exchange rates. Chapter 1, written in collaboration with Giancarlo Corsetti and Joao Duarte, reconsiders the effects of common monetary policy shocks across countries in the euro area, using a data-rich factor model and identifying shocks with high-frequency surprises around policy announcements. We show that the degree of heterogeneity in the response to shocks, while being low in financial variables and output, is significant in consumption, consumer prices and macro variables related to the labour and housing markets. Mirroring country-specific institutional and market differences, we find that home ownership rates are significantly correlated with the strength of the housing channel in monetary policy transmission. We document a high dispersion in the response to shocks of house prices and rents and show that, similar to responses in the US, these variables tend to move in different directions. In Chapter 2, I build a two-country, two-good model to examine the welfare effects of capital controls, finding that under certain circumstances, a shut-down in asset trade can be a Pareto improvement. Further, I examine the robustness of the result to parameter changes, explore a wider set of policy instruments and confront computational issues in this class of international macroeconomic models. I document that within an empirically relevant parameter span for the trade elasticity, the gains from capital controls might be significantly larger than suggested by previous contributions. Moreover, I establish that a refined form of capital controls in the shape of taxes and tariffs cannot improve upon the outcome under financial autarky. Finally, results show that the conjunction of pruning methods and endogenous discount factors can remove explosive behaviour from this class of models and restore equilibrating properties. In Chapter 3, I use a panel of 20 emerging market currencies to assess whether a model that combines fundamental and non-fundamental exchange rate forecasting approaches can successfully predict risk premia (i.e. currency excess returns) over the short horizon. In doing so, I aim to overcome three main shortcomings of earlier research: i) Sensitivity to the chosen sample period; ii) seemingly arbitrary selection of explanatory variables that differs from currency to currency; and iii) difficulty in interpreting forecasts beyond the numerical signal. Based on a theoretical model of currency risk premia, I use real exchange rate strength combined with indicators for carry, momentum and economic sentiment to homogeneously forecast risk premia across all 20 currencies in the sample at a monthly frequency. In doing so, the model remains largely agnostic about structural choices, keeping arbitrarily imposed restrictions to a minimum. Results from portfolio construction suggest that returns are significant and robust both across currencies as well as over time, with Sharpe Ratios in out-of-sample tests above 0.7.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-23T14:20:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Flavio Hertel Magris - INTRODUCAO.pdf: 503577 bytes, checksum: 267ab0300edfd6a605dd8245a444e913 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-10-07 / O avanço da globalização e das práticas neoliberais sobre a América Latina, notadamente a partir dos anos de 1990, têm promovido mudanças de paradigmas na forma de produzir e se apropriar do urbano. Cresce o entendimento de que as cidades mais do que em qualquer outro momento, constituem-se também como um produto social da valorização capitalista por meio da produção imobiliária. Neste sentido, o espaço urbano, mais do que uma condição geral para a produção, torna-se por si só uma mercadoria. No bojo destas transformações, a recente articulação da produção imobiliária com o capital financeiro no Brasil, permitiu a abertura de capitais em bolsa das grandes incorporadoras/construtoras nacionais a partir dos anos 2000. Por terem captado significativo volume de recursos e em meio às pesadas expectativas do capital financeiro, as incorporadoras/construtoras nacionais expandiram suas áreas de atuação, chegando ao Espírito Santo em 2007. A crise econômica de 2008, contudo, colocou em xeque as expectativas dos capitais financeiros e imobiliários, cuja intrincada articulação se faz cada vez mais presentes na produção dos espaços urbanos no Brasil. O lançamento do PMCMV em resposta à crise econômica significou a desarticulação de propostas mais democráticas como o PlanHab. Ainda assim foi amplamente festejado pelo mercado imobiliário e financeiro que participaram ativamente de sua formulação. O protagonismo dado à produção empresarial dentro do MCMV, e a racionalidade puramente mercantilista por trás desta forma de produção, estão promovendo importantes mudanças no tecido urbano do município de Serra. As habitações construídas para as faixas de renda mais elevadas do MCMV (faixas II e III) vem reforçando o Bairro de Laranjeiras como importante sub-centro terciário, bem como as regiões de Manguinhos e Jacaraípe como eixos de expansão para o mercado imobiliário. Ao mesmo tempo, contudo, promove nestas áreas um rebaixamento significativo da qualidade das construções, bem como impactos nada desprezíveis sobre o convívio social, sobre o meio ambiente e transito, ao se materializarem por meio de grandes complexos de condomínios fechados. A análise da racionalidade por trás da escolha dos locais destinados à construção empresarial das habitações para a faixa I do MCMV, sugere um processo de esgarçamento do tecido urbano de Serra que nem o criticado BNH dos militares ousou realizar em sua época no município, quando o Estado ainda não havia aberto mão de sua prerrogativa de planejar e ordenar seu território por meio de sua política habitacional / The advancement of globalization and neoliberal practices of Latin America since the 1990s has promoted changes of paradigms in the form of producing and appropriating the city spaces. With development it grows the understanding that cities more than at any other time, constituting themselves as a social product of capitalist valorization by producing real estate. Accordingly, the urban area, rather than a general condition for the production becomes a commodity product itself. Amid these changes, the recent joint production of real estate with the finance capital in Brazil, allowed the opening of capital in the stock of large developers / homebuilders nationwide from the 2000s. Since they have captured a significant amount of resources and amid the heavy expectations of financial capital, developers / builders national expanded its areas of operation, reaching in Espírito Santo in 2007. The economic crisis in 2008, however, has questioned the expectations of financial capital and real estate, whose intricate articulation becomes increasingly present in the production of urban spaces in Brazil. The launch of MCMV in response to the economic crisis meant the disarticulation of proposals as the most democratic PlanHab. However, it was widely celebrated by the real estate and financial who actively participated in its formulation. The leading role given to the production enterprise within the MCMV, and the purely mercantilist rationale behind this form of production, are promoting important changes in the urban fabric in the city of Serra. Housing built for higher income brackets MCMV (bands II and III) is strengthening the district Laranjeiras as an important sub-tertiary center, as well as "regions" of Manguinhos and Jacaraípe work as axes of expansion for the housing market. However, at the same time, it leads to a decrease on the quality of buildings in these areas, and the significant impact on the social life, environment and traffic, to materialize through a large complex of locked condominiums. The analysis of the rationale behind the specific places for the construction of housing for the business band I of the MCMV, suggesting a process of unraveling the urban area of Serra that neither the military BNH criticized dared to carry in its time in the city, when the State had not given up its prerogative to plan and organize the territory through its housing policy

Um dos aspectos regulatórios fundamentais para o mercado imobiliário no Brasil são os limites para obtenção de financiamento no Sistema Financeiro de Habitação. Esses limites podem ser definidos de forma a aumentar ou reduzir a oferta de crédito neste mercado, alterando o comportamento dos seus agentes e, com isso, o preço de mercado dos imóveis. Neste trabalho, propomos um modelo de formação de preços no mercado imobiliário brasileiro com base no comportamento dos agentes que o compõem. Os agentes vendedores têm comportamento heterogêneo e são influenciados pela demanda histórica, enquanto que os agentes compradores têm o seu comportamento determinado pela disponibilidade de crédito. Esta disponibilidade de crédito, por sua vez, é definida pelos limites para concessão de financiamento no Sistema Financeiro de Habitação. Verificamos que o processo markoviano que descreve preço de mercado converge para um sistema dinâmico determinístico quando o número de agentes aumenta, e analisamos o comportamento deste sistema dinâmico. Mostramos qual é a família de variáveis aleatórias que representa o comportamento dos agentes vendedores de forma que o sistema apresente um preço de equilíbrio não trivial, condizente com a realidade. Verificamos ainda que o preço de equilíbrio depende não só das regras de concessão de financiamento no Sistema Financeiro de Habitação, como também do preço de reserva dos compradores e da memória e da sensibilidade dos vendedores a alterações na demanda. A memória e a sensibilidade dos vendedores podem levar a oscilações de preços acima ou abaixo do preço de equilíbrio (típicas de processos de formação de bolhas); ou até mesmo a uma bifurcação de Neimark-Sacker, quando o sistema apresenta dinâmica oscilatória estável. / One of the fundamental regulatory aspects for the housing market in Brazil are the limits for obtaining a residential mortgage loan within the Sistema Financeiro de Habitação. These limits can be defined so as to increase or reduce credit supply in this market, changing its agents behavior and, therefore, the housing market price. In this work we propose a pricing model for the brazilian housing market based on the behavior of its agents. Sellers have heterogeneous behavior and are influenced by the historical demand, while buyers behavior is determined by credit availability. The availability of credit is, in its turn, defined by the regulatory limits for obtaining a residential mortgage loan. We have verified that the Markov process which describes the market price converges to a deterministic dynamical system as the number of agents increase, and we have analyzed the behavior of this emerging system. We show which family of random variables may represent the behavior of sellers so that the system has a nontrivial equilibrium price, consistent with reality. We have also verified that the equilibrium price depends not only on the regulatory limits for obtaing a loan, but also on buyers reserve price and on sellers memory and sensitivity to changes in the demand. Sellers memory and sensitivity to changes in the demand can result in price oscillations above or below the equilibrium level, which is typical in bubble formation processes; or even in a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, when the price has a stable oscillatory dynamics.

En plein essor depuis quelques années, les références au « logement durable » et la constitution d’une offre s’inscrivant dans ses objectifs, invitent à analyser les interactions entre le domaine du logement et celui de l’environnement, dans leurs rapports au phénomène urbain et ses évolutions. Cette thèse de sociologie, ouverte à la pluridisciplinarité en sciences sociales (urbanisme et aménagement, ethnologie), retient empiriquement comme cas d’étude la construction de maisons individuelles dans le Grand Est, en Alsace, qui intègrent une réflexion sur la performance énergétique et l’usage de matériaux dits écologiques, en se centrant en particulier sur les espaces périurbains. L’ambition conjointe de cette recherche est double. D’une part, on se propose d’analyser les modalités de production d’une offre de « maison durable » techno-centrée et adaptée à la focale énergétique des politiques environnementales, à partir d’une enquête auprès de maîtres d’œuvre et constructeurs régionaux, en regard des évolutions des cadres juridiques et des marchés immobiliers nationaux. D’autre part, il s’agit de mettre en lumière, par une ethnographie de terrain et la caractérisation des trajectoires des ménages étudiés, le vécu des habitants, leurs appropriations de la « maison durable » et leurs modes de vie. De façon transversale, la thèse nourrit ainsi une réflexion sur l’injonction à la sobriété énergétique et à la responsabilisation individuelle en questionnant le modèle de « maison durable » et ses effets sur les inégalités socio-spatiales / In the early twenty-first century, “sustainable housing” has become a popular catchword, and its goals are increasingly being embraced in the housing sector. This new context calls for analysing the interactions between housing and environment, especially insofar as they relate to the urban phenomenon and its evolutions. This PhD in sociology adopts an interdisciplinary social science perspective (branching out into urbanism, planning and ethnology) in its empirical examination of the construction of individual houses in the Alsace region of France, that take into consideration energy performance and the use so-called “ecological” materials, especially in peri-urban areas.The PhD pursued two main goals. First, based on a study of regional architects and builders, and in light of the evolution of legal frameworks and national real estate markets, it analyses the modalities of production of techno-centric “sustainable houses” that reflect the demands of environmental policies in terms of energy efficiency. Second, based on ethnographical approach and on the characterization of the trajectories of households, it looks into the experiences of residents, their appropriation of the “sustainable houses” and lifestyles. The PhD ultimately offers crosscutting insights into the impact of calls for energy sobriety and individual responsibility by reconsidering the “sustainable house” model and its effects on social and spatial inequalities.

Abstract The topic of an overheated housing market, in Sweden, has been extensively discussed, not least by the media. This thesis will contribute to the debate by answering the question whether a potential price bubble exists in the Swedish housing market. Years between 1984 and 2004 are analysed using conventional metrics, which include house price-to- rent and income ratios respectively, changes in the dynamics of real house prices, as well as demographic variations. The analyse continues with the use of the imputed rent, also known as the yearly cost of ownership. Moreover the fundamental factors; interest rates, indebtedness and turnover of houses are discussed. It will be concluded that the conventional measures can be misleading. The imputed rent is a superior measure since it is the true cost of ownership and it accounts for changes in important determinants of house demand, mainly the interest rate. The answer to the title of this paper is; no, house prices (in 2004) in Sweden did not appear to be particularly overvalued, neither when compared to yearly rents in the tenancy market, disposable incomes, nor when low levels of interest rates are taken into account. However, this does not rule out that house prices cannot fall in the near future. / Sammanfattning Denna kandidatuppsats behandlar ämnet om en möjlig husprisbubbla i Sverige. Sedvanliga tekniker som används vid analysering av prisbubblor innefattar användandet av proportionen mellan huspriser och hyror samt disponibla inkomster. Även dynamiken i reella huspriser och demografiska förändringar utvärderas. I denna analys jämförs åren mellan 1984 och 2004 genom att använda “imputed rent”, vilken representerar den årliga kostnaden av ägande. Även fundamentala faktorer som räntan, skuldsättningen samt omsättningen av hus undersöks. Den slutsats som uppsatsen resulterar i understryker att de sedvanliga bruken kan vara vilseledande och att ”imputed rent” är en bättre teknik. Detta eftersom ”imputed rent” representerar den verkliga kostnaden av ägande samt inbegriper viktiga avgörande faktorer, som räntan. Därför är svaret på titeln; nej, huspriserna (år 2004) i Sverige förefaller sig inte vara särskilt övervärderade, när de jämförs med årliga hyror av likvärdiga hyresrättslägenheter och disponibla inkomster, samt när hänsyn tas till den låga räntan. Detta utesluter dock inte en framtida nedgång av huspriserna.

Questo lavoro si compone di due parti. La prima parte, costituita dal capitolo primo, fornisce una comparazione teorica di due teorie economiche in ambito di dottrina monetaria, ovvero la teoria New Keynesiana e quella Post Keynesiana. Nella seconda parte, viene ideato e implementato attraverso il software un modello teorico macroeconomico di impostazione Post Keynesiana. L’argomento di analisi è il processo di cartolarizzazione – illustrato nel capitolo 2 – che è stato al centro della crisi finanziaria che ha colpito gli Stati Uniti nel 2007-2009. L’obiettivo del lavoro è quello di analizzare, attraverso la costruzione di un modello – esposto nel capitolo 3 – che utilizza la metodologia Stock-Flow Consistent, i collegamenti tra il settore finanziario e il mercato delle case al fine di stabilire la natura della crisi: si è trattato di una crisi trainata dalla finanza o dal comportamento delle famiglie? La novità del nostro lavoro consiste nella descrizione dettagliata nell’ambito dell’approccio Stock-Flow Consistent del comportamento delle banche private, assumendo una gestione attiva di bilancio da parte delle banche di investimento. / This work is basically divided into two parts. The first part – chapter 1 – provides a comparison between two theory of monetary economics: New Keynesian and Post Keynesian. The second part is represented by the elaboration and implementation of a theoretical macroeconomic model, grounded in Post Keynesian theory. The subject under investigation is the securitization process – illustrated in chapter 2 – which has been at the centre of the 2007-2009 crisis in the United States. The aim is to analyze, through the construction of an elaborate model – in chapter 3 – the links between the financial sector and the housing market and to assess the nature of the crisis: was the 2007-2009 financial crisis a households-led or a finance-led crisis? The novelty of our work is represented by the detailed description in the Stock-Flow Consistent approach of the private banking sector, assuming that investment banks carry out an active management of their balance sheets.

The aim of this study has been to examine how a few members of the Finnish and non- Scandinavian Romani subgroups experience their own, and their groups, situation on the Housing- and Labour Market. We´ve studied our respondents’ experiences of discrimination, which difficulties they think there are, what strategies can be used to deal with these difficulties and also their own ideas on how to improve the situation for the Romani people in the Swedish society. This has been done by six individual structured interviews which have been analyzed with concepts from Symbolic Interactionism, including Goffman’s Dramaturgical Role Theory, definition of Stigma and Kelly’s theory of Personal Constructions. Our results show that the respondents either have been victims of discrimination themselves, or have family/friends that have, which has led to adjustments to the expectations of how an employee or a houseguest should be. Our respondents believe that difficulties getting/keeping a job/house are a result of prejudice towards the Romani people and the main strategy that can be used is hiding their ethnic identity on these arenas.  Ideas for improvement include members of the majority population and Romanies working together long term to develop knowledge about the Romani people.

<p>Abstract</p><p>The topic of an overheated housing market, in Sweden, has been extensively discussed, not least by the media. This thesis will contribute to the debate by answering the question whether a potential price bubble exists in the Swedish housing market. Years between 1984 and 2004 are analysed using conventional metrics, which include house price-to- rent and income ratios respectively, changes in the dynamics of real house prices, as well as demographic variations. The analyse continues with the use of the imputed rent, also known as the yearly cost of ownership. Moreover the fundamental factors; interest rates, indebtedness and turnover of houses are discussed.</p><p>It will be concluded that the conventional measures can be misleading. The imputed rent is a superior measure since it is the true cost of ownership and it accounts for changes in important determinants of house demand, mainly the interest rate. The answer to the title of this paper is; no, house prices (in 2004) in Sweden did not appear to be particularly overvalued, neither when compared to yearly rents in the tenancy market, disposable incomes, nor when low levels of interest rates are taken into account. However, this does not rule out that house prices cannot fall in the near future.</p> / <p>Sammanfattning</p><p>Denna kandidatuppsats behandlar ämnet om en möjlig husprisbubbla i Sverige. Sedvanliga tekniker som används vid analysering av prisbubblor innefattar användandet av proportionen mellan huspriser och hyror samt disponibla inkomster. Även dynamiken i reella huspriser och demografiska förändringar utvärderas.</p><p>I denna analys jämförs åren mellan 1984 och 2004 genom att använda “imputed rent”, vilken representerar den årliga kostnaden av ägande. Även fundamentala faktorer som räntan, skuldsättningen samt omsättningen av hus undersöks. Den slutsats som uppsatsen resulterar i understryker att de sedvanliga bruken kan vara vilseledande och att ”imputed rent” är en bättre teknik. Detta eftersom ”imputed rent” representerar den verkliga kostnaden av ägande samt inbegriper viktiga avgörande faktorer, som räntan. Därför är svaret på titeln; nej, huspriserna (år 2004) i Sverige förefaller sig inte vara särskilt övervärderade, när de jämförs med årliga hyror av likvärdiga hyresrättslägenheter och disponibla inkomster, samt när hänsyn tas till den låga räntan. Detta utesluter dock inte en framtida nedgång av huspriserna.</p>

因網際網路帶來的便利性與即時性，網路新聞成為社會大眾吸收與傳遞新聞資訊的重要管道之一，而累積的巨量新聞亦可反映出社會輿論對某特定新聞議題之即時反應、熱門程度以及情緒走向等。 因此，本研究期望借由意見探勘與情緒分析技術，從特定領域新聞中挖掘出有價值的關聯，並結合傳統機器學習建立一個房地產市場的預測模式，提供購屋決策的參考依據。 本研究搜集99年1月1日至103年6月30日共1,1150筆房地產新聞，以及8,165件捷運週邊250公尺內房屋買賣交易資料，運用意見探勘萃取意見詞彙進行情緒分析，並建立房市情緒與成交價量時間序列，透過半年移動平均、二次移動平均及成長斜率，瞭解社會輿情對房市行情抱持樂觀或悲觀，分析社會情緒與實際房地產成交間關聯性，以期能找出房地產買賣時機點，並進一步結合情緒及房地產的環境影響因素，藉由支援向量機建立站點房市的預測模型。 實證結果中，本研究發現房市情緒與成交價量之波動有一定的週期與相關性，且新捷運開通前一年將連帶影響整體捷運房市波動，當成交線穿越情緒線且斜率同時向上時，可做為適當的房市進場時機點。而本研究針對站點情緒與環境變數所建立之預測模型，其預測新捷運線站點之平均準確率為69.2％，而預測新捷運線熱門站點之準確率為78％，顯示模型於預測熱門站點上具有不錯的預測能力。 / Nowadays, E-News have become an important way for people to get daily information. These enormous amounts of news could reflect public opinions on a particular attention or sentiment trends in news topics. Therefore, how to use opinion mining and sentiment analysis technology to dig out valuable information from particular news becomes the latest issue. In this study, we collected 1,1150 house news and 8,165 house transaction records around the MRT stations within 250 meters over the last five years. We extracted the emotion words from the news by manipulating opinion mining. Furthermore, we built moving average lines and the slope of the moving average in order to explore the relationship and entry point between public opinion and housing market. In conclusion, we indicated that there is a high correlation between the news sentiment and housing market. We also uses SVM algorithm to construct a model to predict housing hotspots. The results demonstrate that the SVM model reaches average accuracy at 69.2% and the model accuracy increases up to 78% for predicting housing hotspots. Besides, we also provide investors with a basis of entry point into the housing market by utilizing the moving average cross overs and slopes analysis and a better way of predicting housing hotspots.