In questo lavoro viene analizzata la possibilità che le fluttuazioni economiche possano essere descritte attraverso l'interazione di agenti a razionalità limitata. Accanto a questa ipotesi, si assume anche che gli agenti sono eterogenei. Questi due elementi si inseriscono all'interno del contesto economico che è visto come un sistema complesso in evoluzione popolato da agenti che interagiscono tra loro impiegando differenti strategie decisionali. Questa tesi si sviluppa su tre modelli di riferimento, sviluppati in capitoli separati. Nel primo si studia un mercato immobiliare utilizzando un modello di equilibrio parziale in cui l'ipotesi di aspettative razionali è sostituita da un meccanismo di interazione fra cartisti e fondamentalisti, che è in grado di generare endogenamente lo sviluppo di fasi di boom e bust. Nel secondo viene mostrato come la selezione evolutiva tra diverse strategie di previsione possa spiegare il coordinamento fra comportamenti individuali. Nel terzo si considera un semplice modello macroeconomico costituito da domanda aggregata, offerta aggregata e una regola di politica monetaria per analizzare aspetti quali l'effetto stabilizzante delle diverse politiche monetarie in un sistema popolato da agenti eterogenei. / We investigate the possibility that economic fluctuations can be explained through the interaction of boundedly rational agents, that is, agents are not assumed to be rational. In deviating from rationality and modeling agents as boundedly rational, it is often assumed that agents are heterogeneous. Bounded rationality and learning in a complex environment naturally fit with heterogeneous expectations, with the economy viewed as complex evolving system composed of many different interacting agents, using different decision strategies. This thesis is built around three main economic frameworks, which are developed in separate chapters. In chapter 2 we study the housing market using a partial equilibrium model in which the rational expectations hypothesis is relaxed in favor of chartist-fundamentalist mechanism to allow for the endogenous development of bubbles. In chapter 3 we present evidence that evolutionary selection among different forecasting heterogeneous heuristics can explain coordination on individual behavior. In chapter 4 we consider a simple model made up by the standard aggregate demand function, the New Keynesian Phillips curve and a Taylor rule to deal with different issues, such as the stabilizing effect of different monetary policies in a system populated by heterogeneous agents.

Wohnbaulandprognosen werden oft noch sehr normativ aus dem Trend der Bevölkerungsentwicklung und dem steigenden Wohnflächenkonsum der Einwohner erstellt. Unter den Bedingungen des demografischen Wandels gerät diese Praxis jedoch in erhebliche Schwierigkeiten. Warum sind Wohnbaulandausweisungen noch notwendig, wenn sowohl die Einwohnerzahl sinkt als auch die Zahl leer stehender Wohnungen zunimmt? Handelt es sich hier vorrangig um steigende Flächenansprüche der Haushalte oder um Effekte veränderter Lebensweisen? In Schrumpfungsregionen lassen schnelle Einschätzungen zunächst keinen zusätzlichen kommunalen Flächenbedarf für Wohnen erkennen und dennoch nimmt die Flächenneuinanspruchnahme für Wohnzwecke weiter zu. So wird deutlich, dass die herkömmlichen methodischen Ansätze für kommunale Wohnbaulandprognosen nicht mehr ausreichen und weitere Einflussfaktoren der Flächenentwicklung berücksichtigt werden müssen. Neue Modelle, welche die kleinräumigen Nachfrageentwicklungen sowie die Divergenzen zwischen Angebots- und Nachfragestruktur abbilden können, sind noch rar. Der folgende Beitrag zeigt, welche methodischen Stärken und Schwächen kommunale Prognoseansätze haben und stellt wichtige Grundgedanken der kommunalen Wohnungsprognosen des Leibniz-Instituts für ökologische Raumentwicklung (IÖR) vor.

This paper presents a method to value the residential real estate portfolio of an economy by summarizing the future discounted values of the net operating income. The motivation for this choice of subject is the concern for a house bubble in Sweden due to the double-digit rise in housing prices which the economy has experienced during many consecutive years. However, the method is general and can be applied anywhere where relevant statistics is available. The challenge to use an income approach to residential real estate valuation lies in the fact that there is no obvious net operating income, as the owner and the end user is in many cases the same person. To solve this challenge, we determine the maximum possible net operating income by taking the households’ disposable incomes and subtracting their expenses. This will be a fictional value for the maximum possible net operating income or the imputed income for real estate owners. When this fictional net operating income is compared to the mean prices of properties, a maximum potential yield to capital invested in residential real estate is extracted. The current number for this maximal potential yield on the Stockholm market seem to be 6,4 percent, 2017. The main contribution of this paper to the science of economy is that it presents a way to use classical fundamental valuation methods to evaluate the price level of residential real estate, that, due to lack of tangible net operating income is not as straightforward as the valuation of the commercial real estate market.

Martina Mikeszová : PHD DISSERTATION - HOUSING MARKET AND RISK OF HOMELESSNESS IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC. ABSTRACT The PhD dissertation focuses on the theme of loss of permanent housing together with the problematic of housing affordability in the Czech Republic. In the first part, the objective is to identify the types of households potentially at risk of being unable to afford housing since 2000, and to trace the development of regional differences in the percentage of at-risk households in the Czech Republic. In the regard to the end of deregulation process in recent years, the analysis of housing (un)affordability of "market" rent housing shows the possible social consequences of the process. Owing to the absence of useful aggregate data on incomes and expenditures for different household types in the regions of the Czech Republic, the alternative data sources and the simulation methodology for measuring housing affordability which combines available regional wage statistics and data on market rents were used. The results indicate that the general risk of being unable to afford rental housing and regional differences in housing affordability are both decreasing. Not only the stagnation of market rent growth related to the growth of household income is behind the development. The main reason is the fact that...

The diploma thesis is a summary describing of the current housing situation in the area of the village Vyškov. It deals with comparing the normal rent of flats in different localities of the municipality and consider amendments to the lease in terms of amenities and size of dwelling. The figures are divided into flats for a 1+1, 2+1, 3+1 and higher. Charting the market and its price in the lease is done both text and graphics.

Bevölkerungsschrumpfung und entspannte Wohnungsmärkte tragen dazu bei, dass die nachfragenden Haushalte ihre differenzierten Wohnwünsche zunehmend besser realisieren können. Dabei gewinnen regionale Wohnungsmarktanalysen und ‑prognosen zunehmend an Bedeutung. Gerade kleinräumige Wohnungsprognosen können entscheidend dazu beitragen, dass realistischere Abschätzungen der regionalen Wohnbauland-, Wohnungsneubau- und Leerstandsentwicklungen besser gelingen, da die Rahmenbedingungen auf den kommunalen und regionalen Wohnungsmärkten spezifischer erfasst werden können. Im Leibniz-Institut für ökologische Raumentwicklung (IÖR) wurde dafür ein spezifischer Prognoseansatz entwickelt, der in diesem Beitrag kurz umrissen wird und dessen Anwendungsmöglichkeiten in der Kommunal- und Regionalplanung anhand von Anwenderbeispielen gezeigt werden.

Spekulationsköp i nyproduktion av bostadsrätter förekommer i allt större utsträckning och antalet spekulationsköpare har ökat under senare år. Genom litteraturstudier samt intervjuer och enkäter med såväl byggherrar som spekulationsköpare och mäklare verksamma i nyproduktion har spekulationsmarknaden av nyproducerade bostadsrätter i Stockholms län utretts och kartlagts. Den generella spekulationsköparen är en man mellan 25-35 år med varierande kapitalstyrka som vill tjäna snabba pengar. Områden som är mest attraktiva för spekulationsköpare att investera i är centrala Stockholm och närförorter. Byggherrarna är samstämmiga i att spekulationsköp idag utgör ett problem främst med avseende på företagets affärsrisk. Mäklarna upplever inte spekulationsköp som ett problem. Både byggherrarna och mäklarna ser dock svårigheter i att förhindra spekulationsköp av nyproduktion eftersom det är svårt att identifiera vem som är spekulationsköpare. För att komma tillrätta med problematiken skulle samverkan mellan olika byggherrar och deras kundregister behöva komma till stånd, vilket strider mot befintlig lagstiftning. Efter granskning av köpprocessen i nyproduktion anser författarna att de mest riskfyllda spekulationsköparna kan förhindras genom att senarelägga upplåtelsen till tillträdet och då även låta köparen betala hela köpeskillingen som upplåtelseavgift. Idag betalas omkring 10 procent av den totala köpeskillingen som upplåtelseavgift upp till 6 månader innan tillträdet. Detta innebär att dagens köpare av nyproduktion inte behöver erlägga hela köpesumman förrän tillträde men kan ändå överlåta bostadsrätten till annan från upplåtelsen innan tillträde. Detta öppnar upp för handel med hög avkastning till låg insats. / Speculative buying of newly constructed condominiums has turned to be more common and the number of speculative buyers has increased in recent years. Through literature studies, surveys and interviews with developers as well as speculative buyers and real estate brokers within sales of new housing development, the speculation market of newly built condominiums in Stockholm have been investigated. In general, the most frequent speculation buyer is a man between 25-35 years with variable capital strength who want to make quick and easy money. Areas that are most attractive for speculative buyers to invest in are central Stockholm and the inner suburbs. The developers are unanimous in that speculative buying today is a problem mainly with respect to the company's business risk. The brokers do not experience speculative buying as a problem. Both developers and brokers see, however, difficulties in preventing speculative buying of new construction due to that it is difficult to identify who is a speculative buyer. To deal with the problem the developers would have to interact and share customer records, which is contrary to existing law. After examination of the buying process of new construction, the authors consider that the most risky speculative buyers can be prevented by delaying the concession and at that point also allow the buyer to pay the full purchase price fee. Today, buyers pay around 10 percent of the total purchase price as a concession fee up to 6 months before access. This means that today's buyers of new construction does not need to pay the entire purchase price until the access but can still sell the apartment to another person after the concession and before the access. This opens up for trade of high yield with a low effort.

Denna uppsats har undersökt tid-till-försäljning på Uppsala kommuns bostadsmarknad för lägenheter under året 2021. För att analysera tid-till-försäljning har metoder från överlevnadsanalys använts. Överlevnadsfunktionen och den kumulativa hasardfunktionen har skattats med Kaplan-Meier-skattningen och Nelson-Aalen-skattningen. Därutöver har tre modeller skattats; en Cox proportionell hasardmodell och två 'Accelerated Failure Time'-modeller varav en var en Weibullmodell och en var en Loglogistiskmodell. Resultaten indikerar att tid-till-försäljning har en hög hasard efter två veckor på marknaden varefter en avtagande hasard. Resultaten indikerar att kovariat har en statistisk signifikant effekt på tid-till-försäljning. Grafiska tester indikerar att antagandet om proportionalitet för Cox proportionella hasardmodell och antagandet om den underliggande hasardfunktionen för Weibullmodellen är orimliga. Antagandet om den underliggande hasardfunktionen för loglogistiskamodellen verkar rimlig. Goodness-of-fit indikerar att Weibullmodellen och loglogistiskamodellen var mer välanpassade till datamaterialet än Cox proportionella hasardmodell. / This bachelor's thesis has investigated time-to-sale on the Uppsala municipality property market for apartments during 2021. Analysis has been performed utilising methods from survival analysis. Both the survival function and cumulative hazard function were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier estimate and the Nelson-Aalen estimate respectively. Furthermore, three models were estimated; a Cox Proportional Hazards model as well as two Accelerated Failure Time models of which one was a Weibullmodell and the other was a loglogistic model. The results indicate that time-to-sale has a high hazard after two weeks on the market followed by a decreasing hazard. The results also indicate that covariates have a statistically significant effect on time-to-sale. Graphical tests indicate that the assumption of proportionality for the Cox Proportional Hazards model and the assumption of the underlying hazard function for the Weibullmodell are unreasonable. The assumed hazardfunction of the loglogistic model was found to be reasonable. Goodness of fit indicates that the Weibull model and loglogistic model were a better fit to the data than the Cox proportional Hazardsmodel.

Problem statement: Accurate and reliable forecasts of trends in the housing market can be useful information for market participants as well as policy makers. This information may be useful to minimize risk related to market uncertainty. Since the burst of the housing bubble in the early 1990s the price level of single-family houses has risen sharply in Sweden. The Swedish housing market has experienced an unusually long period of high growth rates in transaction prices which has opened up for discussions about the risk of another housing bubble. Business and property cycles have shown to contain asymmetries, which linear models are unable to pick up and therefore inappropriate to analyze cycles. Approach: Therefore, this study uses non-linear models which are able to pick up the asymmetries. The estimated models are variations of the Markov-switching regression model, i.e. the Markov-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model and the Markov-switching dynamic regression (MS-DR) model. Results: Our ndings show that the MS-AR(4) model allowing for varying variance across regimes estimated using the growth rate of FASTPI produce superior forecasts over other MSAR models as well as variations of the MS-DR model. The average expected duration to remain in a positive growth regime is between 6.3 and 7.3 years and the average expected duration to remain in a negative growth regime is between 1.2 to 2.5 years. Conclusion: The next regime shift in the Swedish housing market is projected to occur between 2018 and 2019, counting the contraction period in 2012 as the most recent negative regime. Our ndings support other studies ndings which indicate that the longer the market has remained in one state, the greater is the risk for a regime shift. / Problemformulering: Noggranna och tillforlitliga prognoser om utvecklingen pa bostadsmarknaden kan vara anvandbar information for marknadsaktorer samt beslutsfattare. Denna information kan vara anvandbar for att minimera risken relaterad till osakerheten pa marknaden. Sen bostadsbubblan sprack i borjan av 1990-talet har prisnivan for smahus okat kraftigt i Sverige. Den svenska bostadsmarknaden har upplevt en ovanligt lang period av hog tillvaxt i transaktionspriser som har oppnat upp for diskussioner om risken for en ny bostadsbubbla. Konjunkturoch fastighetscykler har visat sig innehalla asymmetrier som linjara modeller inte kan uppfanga och darfor visat sig vara olampliga for att analysera cykler. Tillvagagangssatt: Darfor anvander den har studien icke-linjara modeller som kan uppfanga dessa asymmetrier. De skattade modellerna ar variationer av Hamiltons Markov-switchingmodell, dvs. en autoregressiv Markov-switchingmodell (MS-AR) och en dynamisk Markov-switchingmodell (MS-DR). Resultat: Resultatet visar att MS-AR(4)-modellen som tar hansyn till varierande varians over regimerna estimerad med tillvaxten av FASTPI producerar overlagsna prognoser jamfort med andra MS-AR-modeller samt variationer av MS-DR-modellen. Den genomsnittliga forvantade varaktigheten att benna sig i en positiv regim ar mellan 6,3 och 7,3 ar och den  genomsnittliga forvantade varaktigheten att benna sig i en negativ regim ar mellan 1,2 till 2,5 ar. Slutsats: Nasta regimskifte pa den svenska bostadsmarknaden beraknas ske mellan 2018 och 2019, antaget att nedgangen under 2012 ar den senaste negativa regimen. Resultatet stodjer tidigare studier, som tyder pa att ju langre marknaden har varit i ett tillstand, desto storre ar risken for ett regimskifte.

I denna kandidatuppsats har den verkliga bostadsrättsmarknaden studerats ur ett perspektiv inriktat på spekulationsköp av nyproducerade bostadsrätter. Studien omfattar Stockholmsområdet och intervjuer med inblandade aktörer verksamma i områder har legat till grund för undersökningen. Byggbolag, fastighetsmäklare och spekulationsköpare har bistått med information som lett till insyn och fördjupning i spekulationsköpen som pågår av nyproducerade bostadsrätter. Samtliga parter är eniga om att spekulationsköp är vanligt förekommande på dagens bostadsmarknad. Under de senaste två åren har uppemot 30 procent av köpen inom nyproducerade bostadsrätter utgjorts av spekulationsköpare med syfte att göra en ekonomisk vinning. Det stora tidsspannet mellan köp och tillträde, som ofta uppgår till två år, utgör utrymme för bostadens marknadsvärde att stiga rejält i dagens uppåtgående bostadsmarknad. Tre grupper av spekulationsköpare har kunnat urskiljas. Dessa består först och främst av de rutinerade spekulationsköparna med stor koll på bostadsmarknadens prisutveckling. Den andra gruppen består av mer amatörmässiga spekulationsköpare som genom vänner hört hur stora vinster man kan göra. Den tredje gruppen utgörs av fastighetsmäklarna själva som givetvis är väl medvetna om prisutvecklingen, ofta före alla andra, och ser sin chans till snabba pengar. Gemensamt för dessa grupper är att det i hög grad rör sig om yngre män i 30-års åldern med en bra ekonomi. Små bostäder är av högst intresse men även större bostäder till en högre insats är aktuellt för de mer rutinerade köparna. Fastighetsmäklarna spelar en oberoende roll i spekulationsmarknaden, för dem utgör inte spekulationsköpen något problem. För byggherrarna är dock fenomenet problematiskt då det innebär negativa konsekvenser för företaget. Spekulationsköpen resulterar i fler avhopp, utnyttjande av företagens trygghetssystem, missnöjda slutkonsumenter samt en möjlig bidragande faktor till skenande priser och hysteri på bostadsrätter i Stockholm. Byggbolag har vidtagit flertalet åtgärder för att reglera spekulationsköpen. Bland annat förekommer begränsning till max ett pågående köp per kund, krav på lånelöfte, förhöjda kontantinsatser samt svarta interna listor på spekulationsköpare. Fastighetsmäklarna anser att byggbolagen innehar det största ansvaret för reglering av spekulationsköp då det är dem som prissätter bostäderna. Byggbolagen själva anser att ansvaret är fördelat hos flertalet aktörer såsom kommun, lagstiftning, bostadsrättsföreningar samt regleringar hos byggbolagen själva. / In this bachelor thesis the real housing market is studied from a perspective focused on speculative buying of newly built condominiums. The study covers the Stockholm area and interviews with the involved actors operating in this zone have been the basis for the investigation. Construction companies, real estate agents and speculative buyers have provided information that’s aided transparency, and depth of understanding in speculative purchases of newly built condominiums. All parties agree that speculative buying is common in today’s housing market. Over the past two years, up to 30 percent of the purchases of newly constructed condominiums have consisted of speculative buyers out to make a quick profit. The time span between purchase and access, which can be up to two years, allows the property time to react to the current market in Stockholm’s ever-rising housing market. Three groups of speculative buyers have been distinguished; the first group consists primarily of seasoned speculative buyers with a keen eye on price trends and today's housing market. The second group is more amateur, have little experience, but are well informed from friends and acquaintances that large profits can be made. The third group consists of real estate agents, they of course, are well aware of price trends often before anyone else, and see an opportunity for fast profits. Common to all three groups are males in their 30’s, with substantial backing. Smaller condominiums are of greatest interest but also larger ones appear among the more routine buyers. Real estate agents play an independent role in the speculative market, for them the speculative buying is not a problem. For building companies, however, the phenomenon has become problematic because it implies negative consequences for the company. Speculation purchases result in more defections, abuse of security systems, and disgruntled end users - as well as contributing to already soaring house prices in Stockholm. Construction companies have taken several measures to regulate speculative purchases. One of the factors, among others, is the limit of one single on going purchase per customer. Also restricted are increased cash contributions and notably the inclusion of internal black lists used to expose offending buyers. Real estate agents believe that construction companies hold most of the responsibility for the regulation of speculative buying, because they are setting the prices. Construction companies themselves believe that the responsibility is shared by stakeholders such as municipalities, legislation, housing associations – but should also expect internal regulating of their own companies.