Cisco 2014 Annual Security Report clearly outlines the evolution of the threat landscape and the increase of the number of attacks. The UK government in 2012 recognised the cyber threat as Tier-1 threat since about 50 government departments have been either subjected to an attack or a direct threat from an attack. The cyberspace has become the platform of choice for businesses, schools, universities, colleges, hospitals and other sectors for business activities. One of the major problems identified by the Department of Homeland Security is the lack of clear security metrics. The recent cyber security breach of the US retail giant TARGET is a typical example that demonstrates the weaknesses of qualitative security, also considered by some security experts as fuzzy security. High, medium or low as measures of security levels do not give a quantitative representation of the network security level of a company. In this thesis, a method is developed to quantify the security risk level of known and unknown attacks in an enterprise network in an effort to solve this problem. The identified vulnerabilities in a case study of a UK based company are classified according to their severity risk levels using common vulnerability scoring system (CVSS) and open web application security project (OWASP). Probability theory is applied against known attacks to create the security metrics and, detection and prevention method is suggested for company network against unknown attacks. Our security metrics are clear and repeatable that can be verified scientifically.

abstract: An emerging body of literature suggests that humans likely have multiple threat avoidance systems that enable us to detect and avoid threats in our environment, such as disease threats and physical safety threats. These systems are presumed to be domain-specific, each handling one class of potential threats, and previous research generally supports this assumption. Previous research has not, however, directly tested the domain-specificity of disease avoidance and self-protection by showing that activating one threat management system does not lead to responses consistent only with a different threat management system. Here, the domain- specificity of the disease avoidance and self-protection systems is directly tested using the lexical decision task, a measure of stereotype accessibility, and the implicit association test. Results, although inconclusive, more strongly support a series of domain-specific threat management systems than a single, domain- general system / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Psychology 2011

Political parties use different strategies to convince voters to vote for them, and with the technological evolution of our time short movie clips are used, now more than ever before, to accomplish these kinds of tasks. However, a political movie clip that separates itself from other political movie clips is Jimmie Åkesson – Snart är det val. This clip is not trying to persuade the voter to vote for the Sweden democrats because of their political plans, instead it tries to convince the voter of a threat that can destroy Sweden in the nearby future if the voter doesn’t vote for the Sweden democrats in the coming election. This essay seeks to investigate how Jimmie Åkesson – Snart är det val constructs this threat, how the threat becomes realistic and in what ways the threat is used in the movie clip to convince the Swedish voter to vote for the Sweden democrats. To investigate this the essay uses a semiotic analysis to dissemble the movie clip in order to understand how the threat is constructed. Furthermore, rhetorical perspectives such as identification, visualizing rhetoric, ethos, pathos, logos and figures of style are used to discuss how the threat becomes realistic and how it is used to win votes. The conclusion of the essay is that the movie clip constructs two different threats in two different realities by using semiotic resources such as fast shifting scenes, documenting images, music, sounds, environments, characters and a narrating voice in a projecting narrative. More specifically these resources create a true dark reality and a happy delusional reality. In these two realities, the two different threats are found. The first threat is the immigrants that are illustrated as an enemy that destroys Sweden and thus creates the true dark reality where the voters and the Sweden democrats also are illustrated. The other threat is other political parties in Sweden and the Swedish media because they are illustrated in the happy delusional reality and therefore can’t help the voter that is portrayed in the true dark reality. In that sense, the two threats are used to convince the voter to vote for the Sweden democrats because they are the only political party that is located in the true dark reality and therefore are the only ones that understand and can solve the problem that causes the true dark reality. Furthermore, these threats become more realistic by enforcing an emotion of fear for the true dark reality with semiotic resources and also by concretizing this reality with documenting images, characters and sounds. These threats also become more realistic because the semiotic resources create imagistic arguments that allows the mind to take shortcuts when conclusions are made.

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No. of bitstreams: 1 pereira_vas_dr_prud.pdf: 34672414 bytes, checksum: f357f584172b46b5d27f842642bd82f7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-09-13 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) / Dentre os métodos de posicionamento GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) utilizados pela aviação no suporte das fases de aproximação e pouso preciso de aeronaves, destacam-se o SBAS (Satellite-Based Augmentation System) e o GBAS (Ground-Based Augmentation System). O GBAS tem a capacidade de corrigir a maioria dos erros envolvidos na pseudodistância a partir do DGNSS (Differential GNSS), desde que a camada ionosférica apresente um comportamento não perturbado na região do aeroporto. Entretanto, dependendo do fluxo de ionização solar, da atividade geomagnética, do ciclo de manchas solares, do ângulo zenital do Sol e da localização geográfica, a ionosfera pode sofrer fortes perturbações, proporcionando uma ameaça à integridade do GBAS, uma vez que podem ser diferentes os efeitos ionosféricos em pequenas distâncias. Assim, investigações dos erros sistemáticos devido à camada ionosférica no GBAS tem sido objeto de estudos há alguns anos. Nesse sentido, modelos de risco ionosférico, que visam determinar a máxima decorrelação ionosférica espacial existente entre a estação GBAS e a aeronave que se aproxima num aeroporto, foram desenvolvidos ou avaliados, principalmente para o hemisfério norte, mais precisamente para o território norte-americano, onde se destaca o CONUS (Conterminous United States) Threat Model. Nessa área o comportamento da ionosfera é mais estável em comparação com o observado sobre o Brasil, localizado na região ionosférica equatorial e de baixas latitudes, que apresenta a ocorrência da Anomalia de Ionização Equatorial (AIE), bolhas ionosféricas, irregularidades ionosféricas, cintilação ionosférica e Anomalia Magnética do Atlântico Sul (AMAS). A implantação de um GBAS no Brasil, por meio do Departamento de Controle do Espaço Aéreo (DECEA), despertou o interesse de seu uso com segurança. Sendo assim, a pesquisa propôs investigar a aplicabilidade do modelo CONUS de risco ionosférico para GBAS no território brasileiro, utilizando o método dos pares de estações (station-pair method), além de estimar os parâmetros para os principais aeroportos internacionais do Brasil, considerando a variação sazonal, bem como investigar os benefícios quanto ao uso dos sinais GLONASS (Global’naya Navigatsionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema), Galileo e da portadora L5 do GPS (Global Positioning System) no modelo. Para isso, foram utilizados dados GNSS de várias redes ativas entre os anos de 2000 e 2016, bem como dados do GBAS instalado no aeroporto internacional do Rio de Janeiro/RJ (Galeão). Para a determinação dos parâmetros do modelo de risco e do parâmetro de integridade σvig (vertical ionospheric gradient sigma), esse último utilizado para estimar os níveis de proteção horizontal e vertical da aeronave, foi implementado um sistema denominado MoR_Ion. Os parâmetros do modelo CONUS estimados para o Brasil, utilizando sinais GPS para a combinação de portadoras L1/L2, mostraram que é inviável o uso de um GBAS considerando todo o território nacional. Uma alternativa foi estimativa local e temporal para os aeroportos de interesse. Valores obtidos indicaram que o GBAS pode, provavelmente, ser utilizado nos aeroportos internacionais de São Paulo/SP (Cumbica), Rio de Janeiro/RJ (Galeão), Brasília/DF (Presidente Juscelino Kubitschek) e Recife/PE (Gilberto Freyre) com algumas restrições quanto à estação do ano, hora do dia e elevação dos satélites. Já para o aeroporto internacional de Porto Alegre/RS (Salgado Filho) é o único, entre os analisados, em que nenhuma restrição à instalação do GBAS no local foi identificada a partir do conjunto de dados processados. Resultados empregando os sinais GPS e Galileo, para a combinação L1/L5, apresentaram ser melhores que os da combinação L1/L2. Já em relação ao GLONASS, verificou-se que há uma semelhança com os resultados do GPS. A determinação do σvig em tempo real para cada satélite disponível se apresentou como uma alternativa interessante, uma vez que transmite para a aeronave a real condição ionosférica no momento da aproximação e pouso, ao contrário da atual configuração do GBAS de transmitir um valor fixo de σvig que, teoricamente, contempla todas as possíveis perturbações ionosféricas. Estimativas de níveis de proteção para aproximação no Galeão indicaram que há a possibilidade de se realizar um procedimento CAT-I, utilizando satélites GPS ou GLONASS (combinação L1/L2), desde que sejam aplicadas restrições local-temporais previamente estabelecidas. Verificou-se, também, que a utilização dos satélites GLONASS em concomitância com o GPS possibilita a obtenção de valores que atendem aos limiares para um pouso CAT-III, uma vez que uma maior quantidade de satélites e, consequentemente, uma melhor configuração geométrica, é disponibilizada. Um estudo de caso utilizando o time-step method para a região do aeroporto de São José dos Campos/SP, onde se encontram cinco estações em um raio de 10 km, indicou que gradientes desse método podem ser empregados na estimativa dos valores dos parâmetros. Entretanto, tal método tem pouca semelhança com a arquitetura de uma estação GBAS e uma aeronave que se aproxima e, adicionalmente, não soluciona a decorrelação temporal. Por fim, um método alternativo que pode indicar a realização ou não do pouso consiste no monitoramento das irregularidades ionosféricas em tempo real na região circundante de um determinado aeroporto. Experimento realizado em tempo real, mas utilizando dados GPS e GLONASS de março de 2014 (próximo ao pico do ciclo solar 24), mostrou fortes irregularidades para a região do Galeão, com a frente ionosférica se deslocando de sudoeste a nordeste. Assim, uma medida que pode ser empregada para estimar os níveis de proteção consiste em não utilizar os sinais dos satélites que atravessam tais irregularidades. / Among the methods of GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) positioning used by the aviation in the support of the phases of approach and precise landing of aircraft, stand out the SBAS (Satellite-Based Augmentation System) and the GBAS (Ground-Based Augmentation System). GBAS has the ability to correct most of the errors involved in pseudorange from DGNSS (Differential GNSS), provided that the ionospheric layer exhibits undisturbed behavior in the airport region. However, depending on the flow of solar ionization, geomagnetic activity, sunspot cycle, zenith angle of the sun and geographic location, the ionosphere can suffer severe disturbances, posing a threat to the integrity of the GBAS, since the ionospheric effects may be different at small distances. Thus, investigations of systematic errors due to the ionospheric layer in GBAS have been the subject of studies for some years. In this sense, ionospheric threat models, which seek to determine the maximum existing spatial ionospheric decorrelation between the GBAS station and the aircraft approaching an airport, have been developed or evaluated, especially for the northern hemisphere, more precisely to the US territory, which highlights the CONUS (Conterminous United States) Threat Model. In this area, the ionosphere behavior is more stable compared to that observed in Brazil, located in the equatorial and low latitude ionospheric region, which presents the occurrence of Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA), ionospheric bubbles, ionospheric irregularities, ionospheric scintillation and South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA). The implementation of a GBAS in Brazil, through the Department of Airspace Control (DECEA), aroused the interest of its use with safety. Therefore, the research proposed to investigate the applicability of the CONUS Threat Model to GBAS in the Brazilian territory, using the station-pair method, besides estimating the parameters for the main international airports of Brazil, considering the seasonal variation, as well as investigating the benefits of using the GLONASS (Global’naya Navigatsionnaya Sputnikovaya System), Galileo and GPS (Global Positioning System) L5 carrier in the model. For this purpose, GNSS data from several active networks were used between 2000 and 2016, as well as data from GBAS installed at Rio de Janeiro International Airport (Galeão). For the determination of the parameters of the threat model and the σvig (vertical ionospheric gradient sigma) integrity parameter, the latter used to estimate the aircraft horizontal and vertical protection levels, a system called MoR_Ion was implemented. The parameters of the CONUS model estimated for Brazil, using GPS signals for the combination of L1/L2 carriers, showed that it is impracticable to use a GBAS considering the entire national territory. An alternative was a local and temporal estimate for the airports of interest. The values obtained indicate that the GBAS can probably be used in the international airports of São Paulo/SP (Cumbica), Rio de Janeiro/RJ (Galeão), Brasília/DF (President Juscelino Kubitschek) and Recife/PE (Gilberto Freyre) with some restrictions on the season, time of day and satellite elevation. At the international airport of Porto Alegre/RS (Salgado Filho) it is the only one, among the analyzed ones, in which no restriction to the installation of the GBAS in the place was identified from the data set processed. Results using the GPS and Galileo signals for the L1/L5 combination were better than the L1/L2 combination. Regarding GLONASS, it was found that there is a similarity with the GPS results. The determination of the real time σvig for each available satellite was presented as an interesting alternative, since it transmits to the aircraft the actual ionospheric condition at the time of approach and landing, unlike the current GBAS configuration of transmitting a fixed value of σvig which theoretically covers all possible ionospheric disturbances. Estimates of protection levels for approach in Galeão indicated that there is the possibility of performing a CAT-I procedure, using GPS or GLONASS satellites (L1/L2 combination), provided that previously established local-temporal restrictions are applied. It was also verified that the use of GLONASS satellites in concomitance with GPS allows obtaining values that meet the thresholds for a CAT-III landing, since a larger number of satellites and, consequently, a better geometric configuration, is made available. A case study using the time-step method for the airport region of São José dos Campos/SP, where five stations are located within a 10 km radius, indicated that gradients of this method can be used to estimate the parameter values. However, this method has little resemblance to the architecture of a GBAS station and an aircraft approaching and additionally does not solve the temporal decorrelation. Finally, an alternative method that may indicate whether or not the landing is carried out is to monitor ionospheric irregularities in real time in the surrounding region of a given airport. A real-time experiment using GPS and GLONASS data from March 2014 (near the peak of the solar cycle 24) showed strong irregularities for the Galeão region, with the ionospheric front moving from southwest to northeast. Thus, one way that can be used to estimate protection levels is to not use satellite signals that cross such irregularities. / FAPESP: 2015/20522-7

This thesis examines the vulnerabilities due to low-level implementation deficiencies of otherwise secure communication protocols in smart-cards. Smart-cards are considered to be one of the most secure, tamper-resistant, and trusted devices for implementing confidential operations, such as authentication, key management, encryption and decryption for financial, communication, security and data management purposes. The self-containment of smart-cards makes them resistant to attacks as they do not depend on potentially vulnerable external resources. As such, smart-cards are often incorporated in formally-verified protocols that require strong security of the cryptographic computations. Such a setting consists of a smart-card which is responsible for the execution of sensitive operations, and an Application Programming Interface (API) which implements a particular protocol. For the smart-card to execute any kind of operation there exists a confidential low-level communication with the API, responsible for carrying out the protocol specifications and requests. This communication is kept secret on purpose by some vendors, under the assumption that hiding implementation details enhances the system’s security. The work presented in this thesis analyses such low-level protocol implementations in smart-cards, especially those whose implementation details are deliberately kept secret. In particular, the thesis consists of a thorough analysis of the implementation of PKCS#11 and Bitcoin smart-cards with respect to the low-level communication layer. Our hypothesis is that by focusing on reverse-engineering the low-level implementation of the communication protocols in a disciplined and generic way, one can discover new vulnerabilities and open new attack vectors that are not possible when looking at the highest levels of implementation, thereby compromising the security guarantees of the smart-cards. We present REPROVE, a system that automatically reverse-engineers the low-level communication of PKCS#11 smart-cards, deduces the card’s functionalities and translates PKCS#11 cryptographic functions into communication steps. REPROVE deals with both standard-conforming and proprietary implementations, and does not require access to the card. We use REPROVE to reverse-engineer seven commercially available smart-cards. Moreover, we conduct a security analysis of the obtained models and expose a set of vulnerabilities which would have otherwise been unknown. To the best of our knowledge, REPROVE is the first system to address proprietary implementations and the only system that maps cryptographic functions to communication steps and on-card operations. To that end, we showcase REPROVE’s usefulness to a security ecosystem by integrating it with an existing tool to extract meaningful state-machines of the card’s implementations. To conduct a security analysis of the results we obtained, we define a threat model that addresses low-level PKCS#11 implementations. Our analysis indicates a series of implementation errors that leave the cards vulnerable to attacks. To that end, we showcase how the discovered vulnerabilities can be exploited by presenting practical attacks. The results we obtained from the PKCS#11 smart-card analysis showed that proprietary implementations commonly hide erroneous behaviours. To test the assumption that the same practice is also adopted by other protocols, we further examine the low-level implementation of the only available smart-card based Bitcoin wallets, LEDGER. We extract the different protocols that the LEDGER wallets implement and conduct a through analysis. Our results indicate a set of vulnerabilities that expose the wallets as well as the processed transactions to multiple threats. To that end, we present how we successfully mounted attacks on the LEDGER wallets that lead to the loss of the wallet’s ownership and consequently loss of the funds. We address the lack of well-defined security properties that Bitcoin wallets should conform to by introducing a general threat model. We further use that threat model to propose a lightweight fix that can be adopted by other, not necessarily smart-card-based, wallets.

Cette thèse a pour objectif majeur d’examiner l’émergence des émotions en situation de menace du stéréotype et leurs implications sur la performance cognitive des individus stigmatisés. Nous poursuivons deux objectifs. Dans un premier temps, nous souhaitons montrer que la situation de menace du stéréotype est propice non seulement au déclenchement de peur mais aussi de colère chez les individus stigmatisés. Dans ce cadre, nous postulons que l’adhésion ou non des individus au stéréotype de leur groupe d’appartenance déterminerait respectivement l’émergence de peur ou de colère. Cinq études expérimentales permettent de valider cette hypothèse. Dans un second temps, nous examinons les processus par lesquels ces deux émotions interviennent dans la chute de performance classiquement observée en menace du stéréotype. Sur la base de la théorie des tendances à l’action et des théories cognitives, nous proposons que la peur et la colère ressenties par les individus stigmatisés dans cette situation, sont responsables de ses conséquences délétères sur leur performance. La peur est associée à une tendance d’évitement qui empêcherait les individus négativement stéréotypés de s’impliquer dans la tâche qui permet l’application du stéréotype. La colère, quant à elle, favorise une tendance d’approche et un traitement heuristique de l’information qui, associés, précipiteraient les réponses des individus stigmatisés et empêcheraient le traitement approfondi de la tâche. Par leur tendance d’action, peur et colère pourraient contribuer à la réduction des performances en situation de menace du stéréotype. Trois études expérimentales permettent de valider cette idée.Cette thèse propose une explication alternative à l’effet délétère classiquement observé de la menace du stéréotype sur les performances des individus stigmatisés et pointe l’importance de prendre en considération les conséquences comportementales et cognitives des émotions dans cette situation. / The aim of this research is to examine the emergence of emotions in stereotype threat and its implications on performances of stigmatized individuals. We have two purposes. First, we want to show that stereotype threat situation triggers not only fear but also anger in stigmatized individuals. We postulate that endorsement or non endorsement to the group stereotype would respectively determine the emergence of fear or anger. Five experiments confirm our hypothesis. Then we examine processes through which fear and anger have deleterious effect on performances in stereotype threat situation. We suggest that fear and anger have deleterious effect because of the action tendencies and the cognitive processing of information that they trigger. Fear triggers an avoidance action tendency which could prevent stigmatized individuals to get involved in the task. Anger triggers an approach action tendency and a heuristic processing of information which could lead to rush towards the task without processing information deeply. Three experiments confirm our hypothesis. This research suggests an alternative explanation to the deleterious effect of stereotype threat on performances and highlights the importance to take into account the behavioral and cognitive consequences of emotions in the stereotype threat situation.

Uppsatsen syftar till att analysera de förmågor som den maritima säkerheten i Sveriges närområde kräver. Dessa behov har sedan jämförts med aktuella maritima resurser genom en avslutande diskussion. Utgångspunkt har tagits i Regeringens havs –och utrikespolitik med inriktning på den maritima säkerheten.I uppsatsen motsvaras begreppet ”maritima enheter” av Kustbevakningen och marinen. Hoten mot den maritima säkerheten har identifierats utifrån de uppsatta mål som de maritima enheterna arbetar mot. Dessa har fördelats över Geoffrey Tills fem underkategorier för maritim säkerhet.Begreppet maritim säkerhet har sedan brutits ned till handlingsvägar och medel, det vill säga förmågor. Handlingsvägarna och medlen leder fram till målet, som är just maritim säkerhet.Resultatet från uppsatsen visar att Sverige som småstat ständigt måste kompromissa för att optimera sina maritima enheters förmågor för att uppnå målet maritim säkerhet. Vidare dras slutsatsen att internationella samarbeten spelar en viktig roll för Sverige i detta sammanhang. Slutligen konstateras att det finns brister i de maritima enheternas förmågor och att ett fortsatt aktivt prioriterings –och förbättringsarbete är mycket viktigt för att bibehålla nödvändiga, grundläggande förmågor inom den maritima arenan. / The aim of the report is to analyze the abilities that maritime security in thesurroundings of Sweden demands. These needs are then compared to maritimeresources in a finishing discussion.The Swedish government´s foreign policy and policy for the sea, with focus onmaritime security, has been used as a starting point.In this report, the concept “maritime units” is represented by the Swedish coastguard and the Swedish navy. The threats against the maritime security have beenidentified from the goals that the maritime units are working against. Thesethreats have been divided into Geoffrey Till´s five subcategories for maritimesecurity. The concept maritime security is then broken down into ways of actionand means, in this case abilities. The ways of action and the means lead up to thegoal, that is maritime security.The result from the report shows that Sweden as a small country always need tocompromise to optimize the abilities of its maritime units to achieve the goal ofmaritime security. Henceforth is the conclusion that international cooperationplays an important role for Sweden in this context. Finally it is established that theabilities of the maritime units contain flaws and that continuing work ofimprovement and continuing to prioritize is very important to sustain thenecessary and fundamental abilities within the maritime arena.

A presente tese aborda a temática da vulnerabilidade da população frente às situações de ameaça e risco. A pesquisa realizou-se junto ao perímetro urbano da cidade de Santa Maria na região central do Rio Grande do Sul. A vulnerabilidade foi avaliada com relação aos fenômenos desencadeados pelas dinâmicas fluvial e de encosta, mais especificamente, movimentos de massa, inundações e erosão de margens. O objetivo principal do trabalho consiste na análise de variáveis determinantes para os graus de vulnerabilidade da população que reside em áreas sob ameaça de desastres naturais. A metodologia resume-se na análise de imagens DigitalGlobe obtidas via Google Earth Pro (2012) para a determinação das áreas urbanas ocupadas e susceptíveis aos fenômenos causadores de desastre junto às encostas e à rede de drenagem; para a obtenção dos graus de vulnerabilidade foi utilizada a base de informações referente aos Setores Censitários (IBGE, 2010): rendimento mensal, taxa de idosos e crianças, taxa de analfabetismo, à esses dados foram acrescidos o número de residências e o padrão urbano construtivo das moradias por área sob ameaça. A correlação das variáveis determinou quatro graus de vulnerabilidade: Grau I (Baixo), Grau II (Médio), Grau III (Alto) e Grau IV (Muito Alto). Verifica-se áreas sob ameaça nos patamares mais elevados das encostas, no entanto, existem situações perigosas em patamares com memores inclinações, devido, principalmente, às alterações realizadas nos taludes para a edificação das moradias. Quanto aos processos de dinâmica fluvial, a ameaça refere-se às inundações e à erosão de margens. A ocupação expandiu-se ao longo das planícies de inundação de inúmeros cursos fluviais ao longo do perímetro urbano, sendo, portanto, praticamente inevitáveis os episódios desta natureza. A erosão das margens fluviais são sentidas quase que exclusivamente pelos moradores que edificaram suas residências junto aos terrenos marginais, com distância aproximada de 5 metros do leito. A população mais vulnerável é aquela que apresenta situação socioeconômica menos favorecida, com idade superior à 65 e inferior à 15 anos de idade, com taxa elevada de analfabetismo e ausência de serviços urbanos básicos. Apesar da existência de leis e projetos relacionados à problemática dos desastres, o gerenciamento das áreas sob ameaça é ineficiente, favorecendo o surgimento de inúmeras situações perigosas. / This paper is about the risk ok the population in some kind of situations. The research was conduct in the urban perimeter of Santa Maria town, central part of Rio Grande do Sul state. The topic was the analysis of the vulnerability caused by the mass movements and floods in the river and also the deterioration on the banks. The main objective is the analyses of the level of risk areas of natural disasters that population face. To active this objective the study uses Google Earth Pro (2012) Digital Globes pictures to see where was the urban areas near at river banks with higher risk of disasters. To obtain the risk levels was used some parts of Census (IBGE 2010) more specific the how much money the families makes in one mouth also the number of young's and elderly and also the number and material used in construction of houses. Was stabilized four levels of risk in crescent order we have level one (Low risk), level two (Medium risk), level three (High risk) and level four (Very High Risk). Was possible the discover some areas in the higher level of risk in more elevate terrains and also some danger places in lower fields however the highest risk is in areas more flats but changed by manmade activities in special house constructions. The main danger caused by river stream is the floods and erosion of banks. The population occupied flat terrains near the rivers that were naturally flooded and because that is almost impossible to avoid this kind of disaster. The erosion on bank happens in land where houses was built near of 5 meters of rivers. The populations in higher danger is the more lower financial classes with ages up to 65 years and under 15 and high rates of analphabets and no basic state services. Even with laws and projects to prevent disasters situations the management of risk areas is inefficient and cooperate to more possible disasters.

The Affordable Care Act (ACA), passed on March 23rd, 2010, contains widesweeping legislation aimed at reforming the current U.S. healthcare system. The ACA has been lauded by its proponents and deeply criticized by its opponents. The current paper included two experimental studies designed to test if the individual insurance mandate requirement is a specific source of the psychological and behavioral resistance displayed toward the ACA. In study 1 the individual insurance mandate requirement did not produce greater negative attitudes towards the ACA or the current Presidential administration and it did not predict attitudes towards the longevity of the ACA. Democrats were found to have significantly less negative attitudes towards the ACA and towards the longevity of the ACA and Democrats also reported a lower likelihood of the ACA being repealed in comparison to Independents, Republicans or Libertarians. In study 2, the non-significant individual insurance mandate findings from study 1, were replicated in study 2. However, Democrats again were found to have significantly less negative attitudes towards the ACA and towards the longevity of the ACA in comparison to Independents, Republicans and those with no political affiliation. Democrats also indicated that they were less likely to vote for a political candidate who supports the repeal of the ACA in comparison to Independents, Republicans and those with no political affiliation. Implications and future research directions are discussed.

The Arab Peace Initiative (former Saudi Initiative) was officially proposed by Saudi Arabia and has been (re-)endorsed by all 22 member states of the Arab League since 2002. Israel has not officially responded to the API but rather has generally ignored and by default rejected it. This thesis examines the reasons for the Israeli rejection by analyzing the structure of the Israeli government in relation to the position of the prime minister, both normatively and descriptively, and examining public opinion as a potential enabler or constraint on policymaking. It also explores mechanisms such as threat perceptions and framing to highlight cognitive influences that negatively impacted serious consideration of the API. Qualitative interviews with expert Israelis and Arabs contribute to a deeper understanding of the Israeli perspective of the API's shortcomings. The API is unlikely to be implemented under this current government unless Israeli public opinion significantly changes in its favor.