<p><strong>Datum</strong>: 2010-06-03</p><p><strong>Kurs</strong>: Kandidatuppsats i Företagsekonomi</p><p><strong>Lärosäte</strong>: Mälardalens högskola, Västerås</p><p><strong>Institution</strong>: Akademin för hållbar samhälls- och teknikutveckling</p><p><strong>Titel</strong>: Företagsvärdering med Fundamental analys</p><p><strong>Författare</strong>: Sebastian Järvinen och Slavisa Stupic</p><p><strong>Handledare</strong>: Riitta Lehtisalo</p><p><strong>Examinator</strong>: Cecilia Lindh</p><p><strong>Frågeställningar</strong>: Vilka värderingsmetoder och modeller är mest lämpliga för en värdering av Eolus Vind AB?</p><p>Är Eolus aktie över- eller undervärderad?</p><p>Vilken påverkan har avvikelser gentemot prognos i värderingen av Eolus?</p><p><strong>Syfte</strong>: Syftet med studien är att utföra en företagsvärdering av Eolus för att fastställa om dess aktie är över- eller undervärderad samt behandla osäkerheten kring en värdering.</p><p><strong>Metod</strong>: I studien har en deduktiv metod tillämpats då vi valt att utgå från redan befintlig teori. Vidare har kvalitativa och kvantitativa metoder tillämpats för att få en djupare förståelse för hur värderingsmetoderna och modellerna används i praktiken som sedan ligger till grund för värderingen av Eolus.</p><p><strong>Slutsats</strong>: Lämpligaste metoden för en värdering av Eolus är en så kallad DCF analys, där en fundamental analys ligger till grund för de prognostiserade antaganden. Det innebär att bolaget, marknaden och dess bransch studeras för att sedan ligga till grund för de prognoser och antaganden som krävs i en DCF analys. En multipelvärdering är att föredra då den anses göra DCF analysen komplett. Enligt våra prognoser, antaganden och beräkningar anser vi Eolus aktie vara undervärderad gentemot dagens kurs.</p><p><strong>Nyckeltal</strong>: Företagsvärdering, Fundamental analys, Eolus Vind AB, DCF, CAPM, WACC, multipelvärdering</p> / <p><strong>Date</strong>: 2010-06-03</p><p><strong>Subject</strong>: Bachelor Thesis in Business Administration</p><p><strong>University</strong>: Mälardalen University, Vasteras</p><p><strong>Institute</strong>: School of Sustainable Development of Society and Technology</p><p><strong>Title</strong>: Business valuation with Fundamental analysis</p><p><strong>Authors</strong>: Sebastian Järvinen and Slavisa Stupic</p><p><strong>Tutor</strong>: Riitta Lehtisalo</p><p><strong>Examiner</strong>: Cecilia Lindh</p><p><strong>Questions</strong>: What valuation methods and models are most appropriate for the valuation of Eolus Vind AB?</p><p>Is Eolus share over- or undervalued?</p><p>What influence do the deviations in the prognosis have against the forecasted valuation of Eolus?</p><p><strong>Purpose</strong>: The purpose of this study is to perform a Business valuation of Eolus and determine it its share is over- or undervalued. The study will also deal with the uncertainty in the valuation.</p><p><strong>Method</strong>: The study has a deductive approach, which says that the starting point lies in a existing theory. Furthermore, qualitative and quantitative methods are used to obtain a deeper understanding of how valuation methods and models are used in the practice, which t hen forms the basis of a valuation of Eolus.</p><p><strong>Conclusion</strong>: The most appropriate method for a valuation of Eolus is a DCF analysis, where the first step is to do a fundamental analysis, which involves a study of the company, its industry and the market to form a basis for the forecasts, and assumptions that are required in a DCF analysis. A relative valuation is a preferable combination with the DCF analysis. According to our projections, assumptions and estimates we believe that Eolus share is undervalued in relation to today’s share price.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong>: Business Valuation, Fundamental analysis, Eolus Vind AB, DCF, CAPM, WACC, relative valuation</p>

Datum: 2010-06-03 Kurs: Kandidatuppsats i Företagsekonomi Lärosäte: Mälardalens högskola, Västerås Institution: Akademin för hållbar samhälls- och teknikutveckling Titel: Företagsvärdering med Fundamental analys Författare: Sebastian Järvinen och Slavisa Stupic Handledare: Riitta Lehtisalo Examinator: Cecilia Lindh Frågeställningar: Vilka värderingsmetoder och modeller är mest lämpliga för en värdering av Eolus Vind AB? Är Eolus aktie över- eller undervärderad? Vilken påverkan har avvikelser gentemot prognos i värderingen av Eolus? Syfte: Syftet med studien är att utföra en företagsvärdering av Eolus för att fastställa om dess aktie är över- eller undervärderad samt behandla osäkerheten kring en värdering. Metod: I studien har en deduktiv metod tillämpats då vi valt att utgå från redan befintlig teori. Vidare har kvalitativa och kvantitativa metoder tillämpats för att få en djupare förståelse för hur värderingsmetoderna och modellerna används i praktiken som sedan ligger till grund för värderingen av Eolus. Slutsats: Lämpligaste metoden för en värdering av Eolus är en så kallad DCF analys, där en fundamental analys ligger till grund för de prognostiserade antaganden. Det innebär att bolaget, marknaden och dess bransch studeras för att sedan ligga till grund för de prognoser och antaganden som krävs i en DCF analys. En multipelvärdering är att föredra då den anses göra DCF analysen komplett. Enligt våra prognoser, antaganden och beräkningar anser vi Eolus aktie vara undervärderad gentemot dagens kurs. Nyckeltal: Företagsvärdering, Fundamental analys, Eolus Vind AB, DCF, CAPM, WACC, multipelvärdering / Date: 2010-06-03 Subject: Bachelor Thesis in Business Administration University: Mälardalen University, Vasteras Institute: School of Sustainable Development of Society and Technology Title: Business valuation with Fundamental analysis Authors: Sebastian Järvinen and Slavisa Stupic Tutor: Riitta Lehtisalo Examiner: Cecilia Lindh Questions: What valuation methods and models are most appropriate for the valuation of Eolus Vind AB? Is Eolus share over- or undervalued? What influence do the deviations in the prognosis have against the forecasted valuation of Eolus? Purpose: The purpose of this study is to perform a Business valuation of Eolus and determine it its share is over- or undervalued. The study will also deal with the uncertainty in the valuation. Method: The study has a deductive approach, which says that the starting point lies in a existing theory. Furthermore, qualitative and quantitative methods are used to obtain a deeper understanding of how valuation methods and models are used in the practice, which t hen forms the basis of a valuation of Eolus. Conclusion: The most appropriate method for a valuation of Eolus is a DCF analysis, where the first step is to do a fundamental analysis, which involves a study of the company, its industry and the market to form a basis for the forecasts, and assumptions that are required in a DCF analysis. A relative valuation is a preferable combination with the DCF analysis. According to our projections, assumptions and estimates we believe that Eolus share is undervalued in relation to today’s share price. Keywords: Business Valuation, Fundamental analysis, Eolus Vind AB, DCF, CAPM, WACC, relative valuation

Bakgrund: Analytikerhus och banker har i dagsläget en betydande roll för värderingen av företag och allmänhetens investeringsbeslut som följer dessa aktörers råd. Oavsett värderingsmetod så har analytikern en stor frihet i värderingsprocessen och det finns mycket möjligheter för subjektiva bedömningar och antaganden. Varför är detta viktigt? Jo, analytikernas ändamål skiljer sig mellan företag. Vissa aktieanalytiker arbetar med uppdragsanalyser, där ett företag begär en publik analys för att marknadsföra både sitt bolag och sin aktie, fokus kan ofta befinna sig på möjligheter för företaget i fråga snarare än hot. Vissa aktieanalytiker jobbar med M&amp;A transaktioner, där det istället kan vara fördelaktigt för köparens team att komma fram till en låg värdering för att köpa ett bolag billigt men för säljaren gäller motsatsen. Olika ändamål kan skapa utrymme för missvisande värderingar. Syfte: Studiens syfte är att analysera hur svenska analytikerhus och banker jobbar med företagsspecifika riskpremier för att sedan kunna analysera hur de skiljer sig åt och belysa hur och när riskpremierna används av de olika analytikerna. Metod: Studien grundar sig i en kvalitativ undersökning i form av intervjuer med svenska analytiker från analytikerhus och banker, vars dagliga verksamhet består av företagsvärdering och/eller rådgivning. Efter empiriska data presenterats har denna ställts mot befintliga teorier och annan forskning för att skapa en redogörelse över hur analytikerna skiljer sig åt gällande riskpremierna Slutsats: En justerad CAPM används av nästan alla respondenter. De främsta riskerna som identifierades hos analytikerna vissa sig vara branschrisk, vinstvolatilitet, överlevnadsrisk, ledning, kund- och leverantörsberoende. Största skillnad var vilka risker analytikerna väljer att inkludera i prognos och i riskpremier. Författarna har identifierat att en storlekspremie används endast vid arbete med onoterade bolag av revisionsbyrå. Erfarenhet har visat sig vara avgörande vid skattningen av avkastningskravet, författarna menar att det kan finnas en koppling till bias i detta sammanhang. / Background: Analyst firms and banks currently play a significant role in the valuation of companies and the public's investment decisions that follow the advice of these players. Regardless of the valuation method, the analyst has a great deal of freedom in the valuation process and there are many opportunities for subjective assessments and assumptions. Why is this important? Well, the purpose of the analysts differs between companies. Some stock analysts work with commissioned analyzes, where a company requests a public analysis to market both its company and its stock, the focus can often be on opportunities for the company in question rather than threats. Some equity analysts work with M&amp;A transactions, where it may instead be advantageous for the buyer's team to arrive at a low valuation to buy a company cheaply, but for the seller the opposite applies. Different purposes can create room for misleading valuations. Purpose: The purpose of the study is to analyze how Swedish analyst firms and banks work with firm-specific risk premiums in order to then be able to analyze how they differ and shed light on how and when the risk premiums are used by the various analysts.  Methodology: The study is based on a qualitative study in the form of interviews with Swedish analysts from analyst firms and banks, whose daily operations consist of company valuation and / or financial advice. After empirical data has been presented, this has been set against existing theories and previous research to create a description of how analysts differ regarding current risk premiums.  Conclusion: An adjusted CAPM is used by almost all respondents. The main risks identified by the analysts turned out to be industry risk, profit volatility, survival risk, management, customer and supplier dependence. The biggest difference was which risks the analysts choose to include in the forecast and in risk premiums. The authors have identified that a size premium is only used when working with unlisted companies by an auditing firm. Experience has proven to be crucial in estimating the required rate of return, the authors believe that there may be a connection to bias in this context.

Value creation in any stock market is a highly discussed topic with an abundant amount of generalized models aiming to predict future returns. Although no such tool exists yet there are, however, acknowledged models from peer-reviewed journals that have received a lot of attention over the years in examining company performance. This thesis is therefore built on the well-known Fama-French three-factor model. The original Fama-French three-factor model is extended by adding a new size premium and a new value premium, both based upon the spread between the return on invested capital (ROIC) – the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The purpose of this is to make the returns of a portfolio account for cash flow and debt on top of risk, size, and value premium for a company. This thesis finds that the ROIC-WACC spread adds explanatory power to the existing Fama and French three-factor model on the Swedish stock market. The research method of this study is quantitative and deductive. The considered period is six years between the years 2014 and 2020.

För att upprätthålla en blomstrande ekonomi i samhället är det viktigt att marknaderna och de finansiella systemen är välfungerande och rationella, eftersom stabil ekonomisk tillväxt ökar välfärden i samhället. En grundläggande förutsättning för detta antagande är att företag värderas med förnuft och rationalitet för att undvika övervärderingar, vilket i sin tur kan ledatill volatilitet och minskad likviditet som inte är fördelaktigt för att upprätthålla förtroende föraktievärdering. Den digitala eran vi lever i har gjort det möjligt för nästan vem som helst att agera investerare på olika börser. Börserna är och har under de senaste åren varit högre värderade än någonsin tidigare. Att investera är att fatta ekonomiska beslut genom att allokera medel i tillgångar, där du förväntar dig en avkastning på investeringen. När en investerare förvärvar sådana tillgångar baserar de vanligtvis sitt beslut på tillgängliga ekonomiska data. Denna ekonomiska data kan komma i olika former, det kan vara årsredovisningar, kvartalsrapporter, värderingar, nyheter om företaget, globala externa faktorer och i vissa fall rekommendationer från andraköpare. Alla investerare har inte den djupgående kunskap som krävs för att sätta ett fundamentaltvärde på en aktie i ett företag, detta medför en risk för övervärdering för företag. Det finns många modeller och metoder för att värdera ett företag och en typisk metod som används är substansvärdering. Kortfattat betyder det att du drar av ett företags totala skulder från de totalatillgångarna, vilket ger dig ett substansvärde på aktierna. Man skulle snabbt inse att detta inte speglar det verkliga värdet av alla företag och därmed inte ger den fullständiga bilden av marknaden och tillväxten. / To sustain a thriving economy in society it's important that the markets and financial systems are well functioning and rational, since stable economic growth increases welfare in society. A fundamental condition for this assumption is that companies are valued with reason and rationality to avoid overevaluations, which in turn may lead to volatility and decreased liquidity that are non-beneficial for maintaining a trust in stock valuation. The digital era we live in has made it possible for almost anyone to act as an investor indifferent stock exchanges. The stock markets are and have for the past years been higher value than ever before. To invest is to conduct economic decisions by allocating means in assets, in which you expect a return on the investment. When an investor acquires such assets they usually base their decision on the economic data available. This economic data may come in different shapes, it could be annual reports, quarterly reports, valuations, news about the company, global external factors and in some cases recommendations from other buyers. All investors don't possess the profound knowledge required to put a fundamental value on a stock in a company, this brings a risk of overvaluation for companies. There are numerous models and methods to value a company and a typical method that is applied is substance valuation. In short, that means that you subtract a company's total liabilities from the total assets, that gives you a substance value of the stocks. One would quickly realize that this doesn't reflect the true value of all companies and thus not giving the full picture of the market and growth. This study is written in Swedish language.

The goal of this thesis is to provide the value of the company ZEMASPOL Uherský Brod a.s. company as per 1st January 2010. The thesis is divided into a theoretical and methodological part, which serve as the basis for last practical part. The practical part acquaints with valuated company. For the purpose of valuation the strategic analysis is performed and results in sales forecasting of the valuated company. After analyzing financial health of the company with help of the financial analysis there is financial plan compiled for time period of 2010 - 2014. Forecast value of the generators is the base of the financial plan. The result of the valuation with DCF entity method is to be found at the end of the thesis. For the comparison of the final company's value the second method of valuation is used -- book value. After valuation the sensitivity analysis the sensitivity on the company's value growth and the weighted average cost of capital are performed.

Scania’s discount rate - the return requirement of investments - refers to Scania’s WACC or weighted average cost of capital. The capital markets return requirement on equity and the credit market interest cost of borrowing is weighted to become the single discount rate, the WACC. The purpose of this study is to investigate which asset pricing model of APT and CAPM Scania should use in their WACC calculations. The company now uses a group WACC of 11 percent which is used in all company levels. The problem with this is that investments in low-risk markets will be discounted by the same factor as high-risk markets, which can result in a misleading NPV. The objective is to create a differentiated WACC which gives an opportunity to compare investments with different risk profiles. The study proposes the best fitting model, given by evaluating APT and CAPM in a Scania context. To achieve a differentiated WACC a new method is created, The JCJ-Method. The method uses an industry index as a benchmark of Scania. The results indicate that APT is the better model for Scania in the differentiating context. / Carl-Johan Peel

To face the competition in the business environment, the company should continuously execute the capital investment to reinforce its competitive ability and to insure the endless business operation. Due to the capital investment involving huge money and long-term impact, the company should considerately and thoughtfully evaluate the financial feasibility of capital investment prior to making decision. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is usually used as benchmark to evaluate the capital investment. WACC is made up of two key elements. The cost of equity, one of both, however, is difficult to measure. This article, taking C company as an example, is focused on how to apply 3 different models such as Dividend Growth Model (DGM), Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Free Cash Flow Model (FCF) to compute the cost of equity as well as on analyzing the outcomes of those models. The outcomes of DGM, CAPM and FCF are respectively 11.82%, 14.2%, and 10.50%, and the highest one is the outcome computed from CAPM. The outcomes computed from both DGM and FCF are narrowly different. As compared with actual rate of return of C company stock (11.6% adjusted from ex-cash dividend and ex-stock dividend), it is found that the outcome of DGM is the nearest to actual rate of return of C company stock, then FCF¡¦s is next one and CAPM¡¦s is most different. However, on condition that the company did not distribute cash dividend in its record or stayed on the abnormal growth stage, the DGM could not be applicable. Internal capital budgeting includes expansion of production expansion, replacement, improvement and innovation. Due to the fact that the attribute of this kind of capital investment is similar to that of the company¡¦s business of line, FCF would be the most appropriate model to estimate the cost of equity to determine the WACC for the purpose of internal capital budgeting evaluation.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-12T20:32:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Osvaldo Cesar Lauer.pdf: 4045663 bytes, checksum: ff3597c7d6baea25cd17296e3aff9714 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-11-29 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Among the different methodologies, that exist for the evaluation of companies, which are being analyzed in the present studies, it was shown, in practical terms, what the literature has been reaffirming: the vast majority of valuation processes is being made by means of the application of the methodology of the discounted cash flow. Since the privatization process of the electric sector, including its recent reform, from 1998 onwards, one of the sectors that has mostly attracted investments in Brazil, has been the transmission of electric energy. The transmission concessions are sold in auctions, by the regulating authority, for the lowest transmission tariff offered, demanding complex financial calculations. Thus, from the auctions of 1999 onwards, the frequent utilization of the discounted cash flow has been observed in the financial modeling to overcome successfully competing proposals in auctions. The present study has the objective to identify the principal aspects related to an electric energy transmission company, culminating in the analysis of a practical comparison of an acquisition process of five transmission companies, applying the methodology of the discounted cash flow. The parameters of the WACC, adopted by the ANEEL in the first periodic revision of the transmission companies (in process), were used, in a pioneering fashion, in order to compare the value of the company established by the market with the value of the company evaluated and established by the regulating authority, verifying its correlation and adherence. / Entre as diversas metodologias de avaliação de empresas existentes, as quais são analisadas no presente trabalho, comprovou-se em termos práticos o que a literatura vem reafirmando: a grande maioria dos processos de valuation vem ocorrendo através da metodologia do fluxo de caixa descontado. Desde o processo de privatização do setor elétrico, e com a sua reforma recente, a partir de 1998, um dos setores que mais tem atraído investimentos no Brasil é o de transmissão de energia elétrica. As concessões de transmissão são licitadas pelo órgão regulador, pela menor tarifa de transmissão ofertada, exigindo cálculos financeiros complexos. Neste aspecto, a partir dos leilões de 1999, tem se observado a grande utilização do fluxo de caixa descontado nas modelagens financeiras para vencer as propostas concorrentes nos leilões. O presente trabalho tem por objetivo identificar os principais aspectos relacionados a uma empresa transmissora de energia elétrica, culminando na análise de uma comparação prática de um processo de aquisição de cinco empresas transmissoras, pela metodologia do fluxo de caixa descontado. Inovando, utilizou-se os parâmetros do WACC adotados pela ANEEL na primeira revisão periódica das transmissoras (em processo), de modo a aferir o valor da empresa estabelecido pelo mercado com o valor da empresa na ótica regulatória, verificando a sua correlação e aderência.

Submitted by RODRIGO MORALES (kitelo@hotmail.com) on 2015-04-13T22:32:21Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodrigo_Morales_Dissertação_Versao Final_upload.pdf: 9138382 bytes, checksum: d0d893805dd805b50f548e3eb943a168 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2015-04-27T13:21:16Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodrigo_Morales_Dissertação_Versao Final_upload.pdf: 9138382 bytes, checksum: d0d893805dd805b50f548e3eb943a168 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2015-04-29T13:42:29Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodrigo_Morales_Dissertação_Versao Final_upload.pdf: 9138382 bytes, checksum: d0d893805dd805b50f548e3eb943a168 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-29T13:42:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodrigo_Morales_Dissertação_Versao Final_upload.pdf: 9138382 bytes, checksum: d0d893805dd805b50f548e3eb943a168 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-09-25 / In recent years the Brazilian govcmmcnt has adopted the posture of encouraging infrastructure projects, mainly road concessions. There is debate about the best way to attract investors in tenns of retum, without, at the same time, users do not havc a high cost and can enjoy good service. This discussion goes primarily by an analysis of traffic risl<, which is entirely allocated to auction's winners today. The methodology used in recent tenders follows a requirement of maximum Internai Rate of Return (IRR), for the Grantor (ANTI), in real terms anda fixcd duration. From the estimated costs and in particular concession investments, ANTT sets a ceiling-rate being charged by the utility to users, through the IRR maximum required in tbe project. This IRR is calculated based on the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of companies in the sector, which have sbares traded on the Brazilian Excbange (BM&FBovespa), using only domestic data. This paper proposes an alternative model, based on thc Least Present Value of Revenues ( LPVR) mecanism. In this model we obserYe that traffic risk is much lower to the auction 's winners because the grant expires only when a certain levei of revenues required by the concessionaire is rcachcd. A model with tlexible term for such is necessary. Howcver, with less risl< of traffic, the upside and downside in tenns of return, are minor compareci to tbe current model. Using tbis model, the Grantor can also define a winner foa· the auctiou (the dealership tbat offcrs the lowest present valuc of rcvenues) and also uses the proposed simulatiou of traffic for setting a deadline for the grant, if demanded. / Nos últimos anos o governo brasileiro tem adotado a postura de incentivo a projetos de infraestrutura, sendo as concessões rodoviárias um dos principais mecanismos. Muito se discute sobre a melhor forma de remuneração das concessionárias, sem que, ao mesmo tempo, os usuários não tenham um custo elevado e possam usufruir de bons serviçoes prestados.Essa discussão passa, principalmente, por uma análise de risco de tráfego, que hoje é inteiramente alocado as cconcessionárias. A metodologia utilizada nos últimos leilões segue uma exigência de Taxa Interna de Retorno ( TIR ) máxima, pelo Poder Concedente ( ANTT ), em termos reais e um prazo de concessão fixo. A partir de custos e investimentos estimados em determinada concessão, a ANTT define uma tarifa-teto a ser cobrada pela concessionária aos usuários através da TIR máxima exigida no projeto. Esta TIR é calculada com base no custo médio ponderado de capital ( WACC ) de empresas do setor, que tem ações negociadas na BM&F Bovespa, utilizando-se apenas dados domésticos. Neste trabalho é proposto um modelo alternativo, baseado no menor valor presente das receitas ( LPVR - Least Present Value of Revenues ). Neste modelo observamos que o risco de tráfego é bem menor para a concessionária, pois a concessão só se expira quando determinado nível de receitas exigido pela concessionária é atingido. Ou seja, para tal, é necessário um modelo de prazo flexível. Neste mecanismo, entretanto, com menor risco de tráfego, o upside e o downside, em termos de retorno, são menores em comparação com o modelo vigente. Utilizando este modelo, o Poder Concedente pode também definir um vencedor para o leilão ( a concessionária que ofertar o menor valor presente das receitas ) e também se utilizar da proposta de simulação de tráfegos para a definição de um prazo máximo para a concessão, em caso de implementação do mecanismo proposto.