Trabalho prospectivo estudando a matriz extracelular da parede vesical em pacientes com extrofia vesical comparados ao grupo controle, pela microscopia óptica comum e luz polarizada com morfometria, quantificando-se as fibras colágenas e reticulínicas. Estudou-se 17 pacientes de ambos os sexos, biopsiando-se toda a parede vesical e empregando colorações HE, PS e Reticulina. Diferenças estatisticamente significantes foram notadas na análise quantitativa de fibras colágenas e reticulínicas o número de fibras colágenas foi significativamente maior e o número de fibras reticulínicas foi menor no grupo de pacientes com extrofia vesical quando comparado ao grupo controle. / A prospective study was done to evaluate the detrusor muscle\'s extracellular matrix in classical bladder exstrophy in comparison to a control group, by use of light microscopy and polarization method with morphometry, to quantify collagen and reticular fibers. Seventeen patients from both sexes were analysed and samples were obtained from the bladder and stained with Haematoxylin-eosin, Picrosirius red and the silver impregnation method. There were significant differences when comparing the quantity of collagen and reticular fibers. The collagen fibers were more abundant in the exstrophy bladders compared to controls, while the reticular fibers were present in smaller amounts.

INTRODUÇÃO: O desenvolvimento das habilidades auditivas sofre influência dos estímulos sonoros aos quais as crianças são expostas. Filhos ouvintes de pais surdos (CODAs - Children of Deaf Adults) geralmente não recebem os estímulos de fala da mesma forma que crianças filhas de ouvintes. Tendo em vista que as informações sonoras são importantes para o processo maturacional do sistema auditivo, torna-se pertinente a análise das habilidades auditivas de CODAs que foram pouco expostas à linguagem oral na primeira infância. OBJETIVO: Comparar o processamento auditivo de crianças filhas de surdos, que foram pouco expostas à língua oral no início de suas vidas, com o de crianças filhas de ouvintes. MÉTODO: Participaram deste estudo 60 crianças, na faixa etária entre 5 e 10 anos de idade, com avaliação audiológica básica (audiometria, logoaudiometria e imitanciometria) dentro dos limites de normalidade, destras, sem histórico de doenças sistêmicas e/ou neurológicas que pudessem afetar o sistema nervoso central e sem aprendizado prévio de música ou de segunda língua oral. Foram formados dois grupos semelhantes quanto a idade e sexo, sendo o Grupo Estudo (GE) composto por 30 crianças filhas de surdos sinalizadores, e o Grupo Controle (GC), por 30 crianças filhas de ouvintes. Os testes selecionados foram: Pediatric Speech Intelligibility em português, Dicótico de Dígitos, Padrão de Frequência, Gaps-In-Noise e também testes de Memória para Sons Instrumentais e Verbais. RESULTADOS: Houve diferença estatisticamente significante de desempenho entre os dois grupos, em todos os testes aplicados, com pior desempenho para o GE. Na análise de desempenho dos grupos por faixa etária, foi possível observar que a média de desempenho do GE ficou abaixo da apresentada pelo GC em todos os testes e em todas as idades avaliadas, sendo a diferença de desempenho entre os grupos maior em faixas etárias menores (5 e 6 anos). CONCLUSÕES: Pode-se concluir que a pouca exposição a estímulos linguísticos orais no início da infância, associada a fatores específicos da vivência de grande parte dos CODAs estudados, contribuiu para o baixo desempenho do GE nos testes. Assim, esses resultados indicam que estímulos sonoros ambientais, sobretudo os de linguagem oral, exercem importante influência no desenvolvimento das habilidades auditivas. Este estudo chama a atenção para a importância do acompanhamento auditivo de filhos ouvintes de pais surdos, assim como para a necessidade de exposição destas crianças aos sons linguísticos orais desde o início de suas vidas / INTRODUCTION: The development of auditory skills is influenced by the sound stimuli to which children are exposed. Hearing children of deaf adults (CODAs) do not usually receive speaking stimuli in the same way as those of hearing adults. Given that sound information is important to the maturation process of the auditory system, it is pertinent to analyze the auditory skills of hearing children of deaf signer adults that were little exposed to oral language in their infancy. OBJECTIVE: To compare the auditory processing of CODAs that were little exposed to oral language in their early infancy with that of children of hearing adults. METHOD: A total of 60 children aged 5-10 years participated in the present study. All participants received normal ratings in their basic audiometric evaluation (audiometry, speech audiometry and imitanciometry). They were right-handed, without a history of systemic and/or neurological diseases that might affect the central nervous system, and without previous musical or second spoken language training. Two groups similar in age and sex were established: the Study Group (SG) comprised 30 children of deaf signer adults and the Control Group (CG) comprised 30 children of hearing adults. The tests selected were Pediatric Speech Intelligibility, Dichotic Digits, Pitch Pattern, Gaps-In-Noise, and Memory for Instrumental Sounds and Verbal Sounds. RESULTS: The SG performed significantly worse than the CG for all tests. Moreover, an analysis of the performance of the groups per age range revealed that for all age ranges assessed, the SG performance average was below that of the CG average; the performance difference between the groups was greater in younger children (5- and 6-year olds). CONCLUSIONS: It can be concluded that the low exposure to oral linguistic stimuli during infancy, associated with specific aspects of the experience of a large proportion of the CODAs studied, contributed to the low performance of the SG in the tests. These results indicate that ambient sound stimuli, especially those related to oral language, strongly influence auditory skills. This study highlights to the importance of the auditory follow-up of hearing CODAs, as well as to the need for exposing these children to oral linguistic sounds from a very early age

Objetivo: Comparar o comprimento do úmero em fetos portadores de síndrome de Down (T21) com o comprimento do úmero em fetos normais, utilizando instrumentos de referência da população local. Método: Estudo caso-controle retrospectivo que comparou o comprimento do úmero de fetos normais com os fetos com T21, entre 18 semanas e 23 semanas e 6 dias. Os exames dos fetos com T21 foram realizados entre 1994 e 2012. Os controles normais foram avaliados entre 2007 e 2009. Foram analisadas as médias, medianas e desvios-padrão da idade materna, idade gestacional e medida do úmero. Posteriormente, foi feita análise da correlação entre as medidas dos úmeros e a idade gestacional, sendo seus valores expressos em múltiplos da mediana (MoMs). O comprimento do úmero dos fetos com T21 foram confrontados com os fetos normais utilizando o teste t-Student. A medida do úmero foi avaliada considerando-se os níveis de corte abaixo do percentil 10, 5 e 2,5 a fim de obter as respectivas taxas de sensibilidade. Calculou-se, ainda, a razão de verossimilhança (RV). A seguir, foi utilizado um modelo linear geral tendo a idade materna como covariável para controlar na comparação. Comparou-se, também, a medida do comprimento do úmero dos fetos normais da população local com o comprimento do úmero esperado baseado na curva de Jeanty. Os testes foram realizados com nível de significância de 5%. Resultados: Foram incluídos 58 casos com T21 e 1888 controles normais. A sensibilidade do comprimento do úmero para a detecção da T21 utilizando o nível de corte abaixo do percentil 10 foi de 44,8 % com RV de 4,4, abaixo do percentil 5 foi de 34,4 % com RV de 6,9 e abaixo do percentil 2,5 foi de 31,0 % com RV de 12. O valor médio dos úmeros, em MoMs, de fetos com T21 é estatisticamente inferior ao dos fetos normais (p < 0,001), utilizando o teste t-Student. Quando controlada a idade materna na comparação entre os grupos, a diferença permaneceu estatisticamente significativa (p < 0,001). Fez-se uma análise para comparar o comprimento do úmero nos fetos normais da população local com o comprimento do úmero esperado para a curva de Jeanty, e viu-se que os fetos normais locais têm comprimento do úmero estatisticamente significante menor. Conclusões: Existe diferença estatisticamente significante entre o comprimento do úmero de fetos normais e de fetos com T21 na população local (p < 0,001). A sensibilidade para detecção de T21 foi de 44,8%, 34,4% e 31%, para o úmero abaixo do percentil 10, 5 e 2,5, respectivamente. A curva de Jeanty não tem rendimento adequado para uso como controle do crescimento umeral em fetos normais locais, acarretando com seu uso o inevitável aumento da taxa de falsos positivos de úmeros curtos / Objective: This study aimed to compare the humeral length (HL) in fetuses with Down syndrome (T21) with HL in normal fetuses, by using instruments of reference of the local population. Method: A case-control study was conducted comparing HL in normal fetuses with HL in fetuses with T21, aged between 18 weeks and 23 weeks and 6 days. Fetuses with T21 who were examined between 1994 and 2012 were included. The normal controls were evaluated between 2007 and 2009. The averages, medians, and standard deviations were obtained for maternal age, gestational age, and HL. Afterwards, we analyzed the correlation between the HL and the gestational age, with values expressed as multiples of the median (MoMs). The HLs of fetuses with T21 were compared with the HLs in normal fetuses by using Student\'s t-test. The humeri were evaluated considering the cut-off levels below the 10th, 5th, and 2,5th percentiles to obtain the sensitivity. The likelihood ratios (LR) were also calculated. Next, a general linear model was used with maternal age as a covariate to control for comparison of the groups. Comparison was also made between the HL of fetuses in the local population and the expected HL, based on the Jeanty curve. The tests were performed with a significance level of 5%. Results: The study included 58 cases with T21 and 1888 normal controls. The sensitivity of the HL to detect T21 by using a cut-off level below the 10th percentile was 44.8% with a LR of 4.4; below the 5th percentile, the sensitivity was 34.4% with a LR of 6.9; and below the 2.5th percentile, the sensitivity was 31.0% with a LR of 12. The average value of the humerus, in MoMs, of fetuses with T21 is statistically lower than that of normal fetuses (p < 0.001), as measured by using Student\'s t-test. When maternal age was controlled as a covariant in the comparison between groups, the difference remained statistically significant (p < 0.001). An analysis to compare the HL in normal fetuses of the local population with expected HL based on the Jeanty curve concluded that the HL in normal fetuses of the local population is lower than expected. Conclusions: There is a statistically significant difference between the HL of normal fetuses and HL of fetuses with T21 in the local population (p < 0.001). The sensitivity for detection of T21 was 44.8%, 34.4%, and 31% for the humerus below the 10th, 5th and 2.5th percentile, respectively. The Jeanty curve is not adequate to use as growth control for humeri in local normal fetuses, as its use leads to an increase in false positive rates when measuring the proportion of short humeri

Com o objetivo de analisar o efeito de supressão das emissões otoacústicas transientes com a apresentação de ruído branco contralateral, foram avaliadas 51 crianças de 7 a 11 anos, sendo 15 sem queixas auditivas (grupo controle) e 36 com distúrbio de processamento auditivo (divididas em dois grupos experimentais). Foram determinados, para cada grupo, a média e o desvio padrão dos valores de supressão em cada condição de estímulo: clique linear e clique não linear. Verificou-se que a proporção de ausência do efeito de supressão foi significativamente maior nos grupos de crianças com distúrbio de processamento auditivo, comparados ao grupo controle / This study concerns the suppression of transient evoked otoacoustic emissions by contralateral white noise in children with auditory processing disorder. Fifty-one children between 7 and 11 years old were assessed, being 15 children without auditory complaints (control group) and 36 with auditory processing disorder (divided in two experimental groups). The mean suppression of otoacoustic emissions and standard deviation were determined for each group, both in linear and nonlinear acquisition mode. The results provided evidence that proportion of absence of otoacoustic emissions suppression was significantly higher in auditory processing disorder groups, when compared to control group

<p>Objectives. To describe the prevalence of asthma in a mid-Swedish region and measure the detection rate of asthma in primary care. To compare clinical outcomes for adolescents with asthma in primary care or in paediatric care and to perform a clinical validation in children with airway, nose and skin symptoms.</p><p>Material and methods. A questionnaire survey of respiratory symptoms and disease in an adult population and an investigation of the occurrence of clinically detected asthma in primary care. A cross-sectional study comparing management, asthma control and quality of life in adolescents. The last study was a nested case-control study with a clinical validation of reported allergic symptoms in children.</p><p>Results. The prevalence of asthma in the adult population was 8%. The clinical prevalence of asthma in primary care was 2%. The detection rate was higher in primary health care centres with asthma clinics, as compared to primary care without such clinics. In adolescents with asthma there was no difference in clinical outcomes between primary care and paediatric care. The validation study showed a high correlation between assigned cases and disease. </p><p>Conclusions. Asthma is a common disease where the majority of cases are managed in primary care. Many cases are, however, not diagnosed and the detection rate becomes a quality care indicator. The study of adolescents confirms that proactive care can be further improved regardless of whether their management is in primary or paediatric care. The nested case-control design is suitable to suggest causational risk factors for asthma and for prediction of allergic disease development.</p>

La present tesi avalua les diferències entre homes i dones quant a les característiques sociodemogràfiques i clínicopatològiques, procés diagnòstic, tractament i pronòstic en una sèrie de casos diagnosticats de novo de càncer de bufeta en 18 hospitals de 5 regions espanyoles (estudi EPICURO). També s'estudia l'associació entre tabac i risc de càncer de bufeta segons el sexe en un estudi agregat d'estudis cas-control europeus i nord-americans de càncer de bufeta.Es trobaren diferències entre sexes quant a la incidència de la malaltia, en algunes característiques anatomopatològiques dels tumors i quant a tractament. No es varen observar diferències entre sexes davant d'un mateix nivell d'exposició al tabac. També s'observaren diferències entre homes i dones quant al risc de recidivar i de progressar dels tumors vesicals superficials, però no en el risc de morir dels pacients amb tumors invasius. / The thesis evaluates differences related to sociodemographic and clinic-pathological characteristics, diagnostic tests, treatment and prognosis of bladder cancer patients newly diagnosed in 18 hospitals from 5 Spanish areas according to sex. The work also assess the association between tobacco and bladder cancer risk according to sex in a pooled analysis of case-control studies of bladder cancer from Europe and North America.Differences between sex concerning disease incidence, pathological characteristics and treatment were observed. The relative risk of bladder cancer associated with tobacco was similar in both sex. Differences between men and women were observed regarding risk of recurrence and progression of their superficial tumors but not regarding risk of death because of an invasive tumor.

Objectives. To describe the prevalence of asthma in a mid-Swedish region and measure the detection rate of asthma in primary care. To compare clinical outcomes for adolescents with asthma in primary care or in paediatric care and to perform a clinical validation in children with airway, nose and skin symptoms. Material and methods. A questionnaire survey of respiratory symptoms and disease in an adult population and an investigation of the occurrence of clinically detected asthma in primary care. A cross-sectional study comparing management, asthma control and quality of life in adolescents. The last study was a nested case-control study with a clinical validation of reported allergic symptoms in children. Results. The prevalence of asthma in the adult population was 8%. The clinical prevalence of asthma in primary care was 2%. The detection rate was higher in primary health care centres with asthma clinics, as compared to primary care without such clinics. In adolescents with asthma there was no difference in clinical outcomes between primary care and paediatric care. The validation study showed a high correlation between assigned cases and disease. Conclusions. Asthma is a common disease where the majority of cases are managed in primary care. Many cases are, however, not diagnosed and the detection rate becomes a quality care indicator. The study of adolescents confirms that proactive care can be further improved regardless of whether their management is in primary or paediatric care. The nested case-control design is suitable to suggest causational risk factors for asthma and for prediction of allergic disease development.

Introduction This thesis concerns the mosquito-borne arbovirus Ross River (RR) virus. The main objectives were to determine the vector associations, the incidence, costs and natural history of disease, and behavioural and environmental risks for infection in tropical Queensland. 1. Literature review On the basis of the literature review there is strong evidence that Aedes vigilax, Ae. camptorhynchus and Culex annulirostris are important vectors in Australia. Aedes camptorhychus does not occur in Queensland. There is evidence that two peri-domestic container-breeding mosquitoes, Ae. notoscriptus and Ae. aegypti, may be vectors of the virus. The virus has been isolated from many other species but the role of most of these is unclear. It is unclear which vertebrate species are the major reservoirs for human infection. Studies are inconsistent with regard to the prevalence, duration and severity of symptoms and debility during RR virus disease. Nearly all epidemiological studies of RR virus have been descriptive. Therefore one can only surmise what the risks for human infection might be. Epidemiological studies to determine the associations between exposures and risk for disease do not exist. 2. Virus isolation from mosquitoes During 1996-1998 61,619 mosquitoes were processed for virus isolation. Thirty-three isolates of RR virus were made. The largest number (14) were from Ae. carmenti. The minimum infection rate (MIR) per 1,000 was 2.4. Isolates were also made from Ae. imprimens (1 isolate, MIR 10.3), Ae. kochi (2, 0.2), Ae. lineatus (1, 0.2), Ae. notoscriptus (1, 1.6), Ae. vigilax (1, 0.3), Cx. annulirostris (9, 0.3), Cx. vicinus (1, 4.0) and Mansonia septempunctata (3, 5.8). Ross River virus has been isolated from Cx. annulirostris, Ae. vigilax, Ae. notoscriputus and Ae. kochi but not from the other species. Ross River virus was not isolated from Ae. aegypti. Twenty-six isolates came from in or near a colony of 15,000 spectacled flying-fox, Pteropus conspicillatus. The proportion of RR virus positive pools from within 1 km. of this colony was significantly greater than elsewhere for all species combined and for Cx. annulirostris but not for Ae. carmenti. 3. The incidence and costs of Ross River virus disease Unpublished data on National, State and Territory notifications was collected. Crude incidence rates using census figures for denominator data were calculated. The same was done for the areas in which the other studies described in the thesis were carried out. An estimate of the cost of Ross River virus disease in Australia was made. During the period 1991-1998 of the States and Territories the Northern Territory (NT) had the highest and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) the lowest notification incidences. These were 62-281 and 0-3 per 100,000 per annum, respectively. During this period the notification incidence for Queensland ranged from 70 to 149 per 100,000 per annum. For the local government areas of Cairns and Mareeba, where the majority of cases of RR virus disease for the studies described in this thesis were recruited, the notification incidences were between 74 and 267, and 28 and 200, respectively. On the basis of an average of 4,800 cases per annum in Australia the cost of serological testing and medical consultations were estimated at $443,520 and $105,600. Lost earnings were estimated at $1,798,560. The total cost for medical consultations, serological testing and lost earnings will therefore be over $2 million in an average year. 4. The natural history of Ross River virus disease In 1998 incident cases of RR virus disease were ascertained. Fifty-seven eligible cases were recruited but only 47 could be reviewed on 3 occasions and data on these were analysed. Cases were followed for up to 197 days. Review included history, examination and the administration of the Clinical Health Assessment Questionnaire (CLINHAQ) and Short Form-36 (SF-36) . On initial review the 3 most common symptoms were arthralgia, joint stiffness and myalgia affecting 97.9, 89.4 and 59.6% of cases, respectively. The joint types most commonly affected by pain at the initial review were the ankles, wrists, interphalangeal joints of the fingers, knees and metacarpophalangeal joints. Objective signs of joint inflammation were rare. The prevalence of signs of inflammation decreased and the prevalence of normal joints on examination increased through the reviews. The prevalence of use of NSAIDs decreased through the reviews. On the basis of CLINHAQ items regarding work performance functioning at work improved through the course of the reviews. Linear regression with days since symptom onset as the independent variable was performed for some variables. The 8 dimensions of the SF-36 were standardized to the Queensland population and analyzed longitudinally . Analyses of the CLINHAQ functional disability index (FDI) and the visual analogue scales (VASs) for pain, global severity, fatigue, gastrointestinal complaints and sleep, and the depression and anxiety scales were also performed. The slopes of all fitted regressions except the SF-36 general health dimension were significantly different from zero. All measures of disease severity returned to normal by 8 months from onset, many in a shorter period. 5. Behavioural and environmental risks for infection Fifty-five incident cases of RR virus disease were recruited and formed the basis of a case-control study of behavioural and environmental risks. They were matched to 85 controls. In the year prior to symptom onset the only leisure exposure that significantly altered risk was camping [Odds ratio (OR) = 2.15; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.07-4.35]. No peri-domestic activities in the year prior to onset significantly altered disease risk. Leisure exposures were also assessed in a 3-week exposure period ending 4 days prior to symptom onset. None significantly altered risk. No peri-domestic activity in this period significantly altered risk and nor did exposure to vertebrates or mosquitoes. Containers and vegetation around the subject's dwelling did not significantly increase risk. The presence of ice cream containers and buckets was significantly protective when assessed by questionnaire, however this was also assessed by inspection and was found to increase risk though not significantly so. It was concluded that the former finding was due to differential misclassification of exposure status. The premise condition index (PCI) was measured. A low PCI for the subject's house was associated with a significantly increased risk (3-4 relative to 7-9 as reference category: OR = 3.15, 95% CI = 1.07-9.25). Window screening did not alter disease risk and air-conditioning in the house or the bedroom decreased risk but not significantly so. Use of protective measures, except bed nets, in the year prior to onset was found to decrease disease risk. Personal repellents, mosquito coils and citronella candles significantly decreased risk. A dose response was shown for the number of protective measures from personal repellents, aerosol and surface sprays, mosquito coils, citronella candles and mosquito "zappers" used in the year prior to symptom onset. Pet ownership and proximity of dwelling to horses did not significantly alter risk. A preference for light coloured clothing was significantly protective (0.37, 0.15-0.89). Stratification by gender, date of symptom onset and geographical area was performed. Stratification by geographical area included a coastal and tablelands stratum. There were differences between the stratum-specific odds ratios for camping in the year prior to symptom onset, the presence of bromeliads in the subject's garden and a preference for light coloured clothing. Multivariate analysis demonstrated confounding by use of personal repellents, mosquito coils and citronella candles. When modeled together these were found to cause confounding among themselves. They also caused significant confounding of camping, outdoor work and the presence of banana trees in the subject's yard. Multivariate analysis of the association between PCI and disease risk failed to demonstrate confounding by use of protective measures or time between symptom onset and review. 6. Synthesis and conclusions The three research Chapters form a coherent body of public health research on the epidemiology (Chapters 5 and 6) and ecology (Chapters 4 and 7) of RR virus, and the natural history of RR virus disease (Chapter 6) in tropical Queensland. Conclusions are drawn from the research in the thesis. A set of priorities for future public health research on RR virus is suggested, and a pilot control program for Ross River virus disease in tropical Queensland is recommended.

No description available.

A magnitude das quedas em pacientes hospitalizados é mundial, tanto que profissionais da saúde e gestores de diferentes países têm buscado alternativas para redução dos incidentes de segurança até o mínimo aceitável. Entre essas alternativas estão as políticas públicas e os protocolos de prevenção que orientam a avaliação do risco de quedas por meio de modelos de predição. Este trabalho teve o objetivo de construir e validar um modelo de predição do risco de quedas em pacientes adultos hospitalizados, além de comparar a sensibilidade, a especificidade e a discriminação do modelo construído com a Morse Fall Scale traduzida e adaptada transculturalmente para o português do Brasil e descrever a concordância entre eles. A primeira etapa do estudo foi uma revisão integrativa da literatura que identificou os fatores de risco para quedas, os quais foram investigados na segunda etapa, por meio de um delineamento de caso e controle com pareamento (um controle por caso). O local da investigação foi unidades clínicas e cirúrgicas de um hospital geral, público e universitário do Sul do Brasil. Foram incluídos pacientes com idade igual ou maior de 18 anos e controles com a mesma data de admissão dos casos ou dia(s) subsequentes(s) e excluídos pacientes sem condições clínicas e/ou neurológicas de participar e sem familiar/responsável no momento da coleta; pacientes em cuidados paliativos; quedas ocorridas em unidades que não as pesquisadas; e a segunda queda (ou mais), isto é, se o paciente sofreu mais de um episódio no período de coleta, foi considerado somente o primeiro evento. O modelo foi desenvolvido na amostra de derivação (n=358) e testado na amostra de validação (n=178), definidas por aleatoriedade e em pares, sendo dois terços para primeira e um terço para segunda. A coleta foi de abril de 2013 a setembro de 2014. Os dados foram obtidos junto aos pacientes, a partir do prontuário eletrônico, da ficha de notificação de quedas da instituição e da Morse Fall Scale. Foi realizada dupla digitação independente do banco de dados que foram analisados por meio dos programas Excel, SPSS versão 18.0 com regressão logística condicional e PEPI-for-Windows; valores de p<0,05 foram estatisticamente significativos. Os resultados permitiram construir e validar dois modelos de predição do risco de quedas, denominados SAK (Severo-Almeida-Kuchenbecker) 1 e SAK 2, com seis variáveis comuns aos dois: desorientação/confusão (SAK 1 e SAK 2 p<001); micções frequentes (SAK 1 e SAK 2 p=0,001); limitação para deambular (SAK 1 e SAK 2 p<001); ausência de acompanhante (SAK 1 e SAK 2 p<0,001); pós-operatório (SAK 1 p=0,03; SAK 2 p=0,05); número de medicamentos administrados em até 72 horas antes do desfecho (SAK 1 p=0,01; SAK 2 p=0,02) e queda prévia (SAK 2 p=0,28), presente somente em um modelo. O modelo SAK 2 apresentou melhores valores de acurácia e calibragem em relação aos demais. O teste Kappa não mostrou concordância entre os três modelos. As implicações para a prática vão desde sua aplicação fácil à beira do leito, ao suporte à decisão clínica individual, especialmente do enfermeiro, reforçando a importância do diagnóstico de enfermagem e contribuindo para busca das melhores intervenções preventivas e para segurança do paciente. / The importance on falling of patients in hospital is worldwide spread so that professionals from health area and also managers of different countries have been searching for alternatives to reduce the security incidents to a minimum acceptable. Among these alternatives there are the public politics and the prevention protocols that guide the evaluation of the risk from falling through models of prediction. This research aims at create and validate a model of prediction from falling of adult patients in hospital. Besides that, it aims at comparing sensitivity, particularity and the description created from the Morse Fall Scale translated and adapted culturally to portuguese from Brazil and describe the agreement among them. The first stage of the study was an integrative review that identified the risk factors for falls, which were investigated in the second stage through an outlining of case and pairing control ( one control per case). The places of investigation were the clinical and surgical units of a general university and public hospital in the South of Brazil. There were included patients aged 18 or above and controls with the same date of entrance of cases or the following days and there were excluded the patients with no clinical and/ or neurological conditions to participate and also the ones without family/ or someone responsible at the moment of the collect; patients under palliative care; falls that happened in units not under research; second fall (or more), wich means, if a patient fell more than once during the period of collect, it was considered only his first event. The model was developed in the derivation sample (n= 358) and tested in the validation sample ( n= 178), defined at random and in pairs, being two thirds for the first and one third for the second. The collect happened from April 2013 to September 2014. The data was obtained with the patients from the electronic record, from the institution handbook of falls and from the Morse Scale. It was done a double typing independently from the database that were analyzed through Excel, SPSS version 18.0 with conditional logistics regression and PEPI-for-Windows; values of p<0,05 were statistically significant. The results allowed creating and validating two models of prediction from the risk of falls, named SAK (Severo-Almeida-Kuchenbecker) 1 and SAK 2,with six variants common at both: desorientation/ confusion (SAK 1 e SAK 2 p<001); frequent urination (SAK 1 e SAK 2 p=0,001); limitation of moving (SAK 1 e SAK 2 p<001); lack of attendant (SAK 1 e SAK 2 p<0,001); postoperative (SAK 1 p=0,03; SAK 2 p=0,05); number of drugs administrated into 72 hours before the fall (SAK 1 p=0,01; SAK 2 p=0,02) and previous fall (SAK 2 p=0,28) present only in one model. The model SAK 2 presented the best accuracy values and calibration related to the others. The Kappa test hasn’t shown agreement among the three models. The implications to practice go from its easy application on the bedside, to the support on the individual clinical decision, especially from the nurse, reinforcing the importance of the Nursing Diagnosis and contributing to the search of the best preventive interventions and for the patient security. / La magnitud de las caídas en pacientes hospitalizados es global, por lo que los profesionales de salud y gestores de diferentes países han buscado alternativas para reducir los incidentes de seguridad a un mínimo. Estas alternativas incluyen las políticas públicas y los protocolos de prevención que guían la evaluación del riesgo de caídas por medio de modelos de predicción. Este estudio tuvo como objetivo el desarrollo y validación de un modelo de predicción del riesgo de caídas en pacientes adultos hospitalizados, además se hizo la comparación de la sensibilidad, especificidad y discriminación del modelo construido con la Morse Fall Scale traducida y culturalmente adaptada para el portugués de Brasil, y la descripción de la concordancia entre ellos. La primera etapa del estudio fue una revisión integradora, en que se identificó factores de riesgo para las caídas, los cuales fueron investigados en la segunda etapa con un estudio de caso y control con apareamiento (un control por caso). La investigación fue desarrollada en unidades clínicas y quirúrgicas de un hospital general, público y universitario del sur de Brasil. Se incluyeron pacientes de edad mayor o igual a 18 años y controles con la misma fecha de admisión de los casos o día(s) siguiente(s) y se excluyó a los pacientes sin condición clínica y/o neurológica de participar y sin familia/persona responsable en el momento de recolección de datos; pacientes en cuidados paliativos; caídas que sucedieron en otras unidades que no la investigada; y la segunda caída (o más), es decir, si el paciente experimentó más de un episodio en el período de recolección, se consideró solamente el primer evento. El modelo fue desarrollado en la muestra de derivación (n=358) y puesto a prueba en la muestra de validación (n=178), definidas de forma aleatoria y en pares, dos tercios en la primera y un tercio en la segunda. La recolección fue realizada desde abril de 2013 hasta septiembre de 2014. Los datos se obtuvieron junto a los pacientes, a partir de la historia clínica electrónica, del informe de caídas de la institución y de la Escala Morse. Se realizó la doble digitación de la base de datos que fueron analizados a través de los programas Excel, SPSS versión 18.0 con regresión logística condicional y PEPI-for-Windows; valores de p<0,05 fueron estadísticamente significativos. Los resultados permitieron construir y validar dos modelos de predicción del riesgo de caídas, llamados SAK (Severo-Almeida-Kuchenbecker) 1 y SAK 2, con seis variables comunes a ambos: la desorientación/confusión (SAK 1 y SAK 2 p<0,001); micción frecuente (SAK 1 y SAK 2 p=0,001); limitaciones para deambular (SAK 1 y SAK 2 p<0,001); ausencia de acompañamiento (SAK 1 y SAK 2 p<0,001); postoperatorio (SAK 1 p=0,03; SAK 2 p=0,05); número de medicamentos administrados dentro de las 72 horas anteriores al incidente (SAK 1 p=0,01; SAK 2 p=0,02) e historia anterior de caídas (SAK 2 p=0,28), presente en un solo modelo. El segundo modelo SAK 2 presentó mejores valores de precisión y calibración con respecto a los demás. La prueba de Kappa no presentó ningún acuerdo entre los tres modelos. Las implicaciones para la práctica van desde la fácil aplicación junto a la cama del paciente hasta el apoyo en la toma de decisiones clínicas, especialmente del enfermero, lo que refuerza la importancia del diagnóstico de enfermería y contribuye a la búsqueda de las mejores intervenciones preventivas y a la seguridad del paciente.